sci jigar shah: solar is ready, can we get some respect?
DESCRIPTION
Jigar Shah, Founder of SunEdison; Jigar Shah Consulting: Presentation at launch of SolarCollege's Solar College Initiative (SCI) at PowerShift09, Washington, DC, March 1, 2009 Visit: www.solarcollege.orgTRANSCRIPT
Solar is Ready!
Can we get some Respect?
Jigar Shah
Founder of SunEdison
President of Jigar Shah Consulting
2
Solar as a service: how it looks
Why Solar?
How to make Change
Final Thoughts
4
8 Reasons Solar will be Critical
1) Solar has sustained a growth rate of 41% since 2001
2) The US Solar Industry was $3B in 2008, over $5B in
2009, and prepared to grow to $15B in 2010
3) Solar enjoys more uniform support from the general
public than any other technology – very important!
4) Solar creates more jobs per Federal $ invested than
Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Biomass, Energy Efficiency, etc
5) Solar is distributed and can be deployed quickly
without new transmission and distribution lines
6) Solar is customer empowering – not a central station
technology controlled by the utility industry
7) Solar is a peak technology, critical to the grid
8) Renewables were over 50% of incremental new
capacity in 2008, this number could be 100% by 2012
with solar
5
Global Solar Market Picture
US Demand will be robust,
but weakness in Europe will
cause module prices to crash
6
Utility Incompetence is Helping
Commercial electricity prices have, on average, increased 4.76%
each year for the last 8 years.
Source Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual, DOE/EIA-0348.
5.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.515.516.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
En
erg
y (
cen
ts/k
wh
)
New England
Middle Atlantic
Pacific
West South Central
South Atlantic
East North Central
East South Central
Mountain
West North Central
7
Solar reduces peak energy demand
8
Customer Empowering Technology
Volatile energy prices
vs
Predictable PPA prices
Solar is the only technology that can lock in a customer’s power costs for
the next 20 years from their own rooftop!
0.00
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.21
0.24
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
En
erg
y R
ate
Year
Utility Power vs. Solar Power via PPA
What is our addressable
market in the U.S.?
In 2010, $30 billion (approximately 18% energy) of U.S. retail
electricity demand could be competitively addressed with solar
power…~133 GWs.
Area of solar competitiveness
• Energy prices (Oil & Gas, Coal...)
• Technology improvement in solar
• Insufficient grid investment
• Delivered retail on peak rates (T&D)
• Incentives
What are the main drivers?
Source: EIA 2006 Data
10
Solar is already cheaper!
SolarGrid (Solar, EE, Thermal Storage, Load Control)
- $1.8B transmission line in Maryland (10B over 30 years)
- $1.3B transmission line in SDG&E ($7B over 30 years)
- 8% increase in Salt Lake City for infrastructure
expansion
- 18% increase by Duke (Indiana) and Dominion (Virginia)
to build 600 MW plant
AZ, CA, CO, DE, MD, NJ, CT, MA, OH, MO, TX, NM, FL,
NC . . . 2% of energy for ~1% rate increase
11
What you Should do?
Federal
– Currently 30% (set to expire EOY 2016) with 5 year
accelerated depreciation
– Over 16 programs in Stimulus Bill
State Programs
– Net Metering and Interconnection
– Equalize incentives between central station and distributed
technologies
– Solar carve out in RPS – SRECs; Tax credits; Grants; Rebates
– Solar on Public Rooftops (University, Government)
Examples (Missouri and Ohio)
12
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2005
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
CA
13
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2006
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
CA
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
14
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2007
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
CA
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
15
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2008
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
CA
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
16
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2009
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
CA
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
17
Growth of Viable U.S. Solar States: 2010
MA
WA
OR
UT
MT
ID
CO
WY
ND
NE
KS
IA
MOKY
WV
SD
NV
AR
TX
FL
OK
MN
WI
INOH
MS ALGA
SC
NC
TN
NH
VT
NJ
CTRI
MDDEIL
PA
MI
DC
NM
CA
Sales Activity / Potential
AK
HI
ME
Tier “O” – Primary sales areas
Tier 1 – New business areas in
1 – 2 years
Tier 2 - Potential new business
areas in 3 – 4 years
VA
NY
LA
AZ
18
Conclusion
We don’t need a breakthrough
$40B invested in industry since 2001
Over 1,000,000 job-years over the next
8 years
Needs
Push for Respect!
100% Incremental Renewables by
2012 (now)
Retire End-of-Life plants (2012+)
Ban Coal, NG, Nuclear (2020+)
Jigar ShahFounder, SunEdisonPresident, Jigar Shah Consulting