scenario-based language for hurricane decision support · weather model outcomes (as seen on tv)...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Weather Model Outcomes(as seen on TV)
David Sharp
Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support
NOAA/National Weather ServiceMelbourne, FL
NOAA/National Weather ServiceMiami, FL
Pablo Santos
![Page 2: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Weather Model Outcomes(as seen on TV)
The Relationship Between the Latest Forecast, the Most Likely Scenario, and the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
OR …
![Page 3: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“If you must apologize for a forecast, you didn’t communicate the uncertainty well enough.”
Old Weather Briefer’s Adage:
![Page 4: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Weather Model Outcomes(as seen on TV)
What actionable information does this image convey?
![Page 6: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Weather Model Outcomes(as seen on TV)
And, what actionable information does this image convey?
![Page 7: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Weather Model Outcomes(as seen on TV)
Perhaps it represents an attempt to use more than one single solution (i.e. deterministic outcome) to address forecast uncertainty and confidence issues.
![Page 8: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
“Confusion and doubt are not the same as uncertainty. It is possible to clearly and confidently talk about uncertainty.”
Old Weather Briefer’s Adage:
![Page 9: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenario#1
Scenario#2
Scenario#3
Plausible Outcomes;Most Likely Outcome
But, many people have an aversion to using probability data. study.com
The Value of Probability Data
![Page 10: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
For well-behaved systems, forecast uncertainty is typically larger at extended time periods.◦ Especially for organized, well-forecast
systems
For ill-behaved systems, forecast uncertainty can be large at any time period. ◦ Especially for disorganized systems
offering considerable forecast challenges
Axioms:Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
![Page 11: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Probabilistic-only wind information typically has its greatest value well before and leading into the local event.
Deterministic-only wind information typically has its greatest value at the imminent onset and during the local event.
Axioms:Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
![Page 12: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ideally, as a local hurricane wind event unfolds and draws closer in time … probabilistic depictions should trend toward deterministic depictions.
Axioms:Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
![Page 13: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Latest Forecast
Analyzed location, size, and intensity
Forecast points, size, and intensity◦ 5-day forecasts
◦ 12 & 24 hr points
◦ Motion
The “Official Forecast”◦ Synoptic
![Page 14: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Latest Forecast
Analyzed location, size, and intensity
Forecast points, size, and intensity◦ 5-day forecasts
◦ 12 & 24 hr points
◦ Motion
“NWS Official Forecast”◦ Synoptic
![Page 15: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Latest Forecast
Quadrant winds
◦ Somewhere vs. Everywhere
Intermediate points
◦ 1-hr resolution (interpolated)
CAT2-5 winds
Days 6-7
• NHC … Storm-relative forecast
• WFO … Geo-relative forecast (downscaled & refined)
![Page 16: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The Latest Forecast
“Alright, now I can make some really good decisions.”
Forecast Track◦ Skinny Black Line
Peak Wind Swath
“Well, hang on a minute!”
deterministic; zero error
![Page 17: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
What is the one thing every decision-maker wants but we cannot provide?
… a perfect forecast !!!
DSS
9.59.39.4
TexasPuertoRico
![Page 18: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The Most Likely Scenario
Error Cone
◦ Cross Track Errors
◦ Along Track Errors
“Hurricanes are not points; they have size and dimension.”
As overlay to qualitativelyconsider outcome variations; center tracks within the cone two-thirds of the time.
![Page 19: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The Most Likely Alternate Scenario
Yes, but there are many alternate scenarios
Determining which is the next “most likely” also takes expertise (and to assess whether there is actual meteorological bearing)
“For contingency planning,is there a next most likely solution (qualitative-sense)?”
![Page 20: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Most Likely Alternate ScenarioMost Likely Scenario
Single-Solution Depictions Used Qualitatively
![Page 21: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Incorporating Probability Data
Cumulative Wind Speed Probabilities: Tropical Storm
Chance of a “tropical storm”wind event at a particular location
Quantitative; centered about latest forecast; point location values
Accounts for potential variations in track, intensity, and size of the cyclone
![Page 22: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Incorporating Probability Data
Cumulative Wind Speed Probabilities: Hurricane
Chance of a “hurricane”wind event at a particular location
Quantitative; centered about latest forecast; point location values
Accounts for potential variations in track, intensity, and size of the cyclone
![Page 23: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
October 2, 2016
LatestForecast
![Page 24: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
October 2, 2016
LatestForecast
![Page 25: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Watches & Warnings
Forecaster Expertise:- Subjective Insights- Objective Guidance
![Page 26: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Forecast with Safety Margin
Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
10% exceedance
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 27: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
TolerateLittle Risk
TolerateMuch Risk
Abs
olut
e B
est
Cas
e
Abs
olut
e W
orst
Cas
e
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes(in event context; for a given community)
![Page 28: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
TolerateLittle Risk
TolerateMuch Risk
Rea
sona
ble
Bes
t C
ase
Mos
t Li
kely
Cas
e
Rea
sona
ble
Wor
st C
ase
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes(in event context; for a given community)
![Page 29: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Pessimistic“Prepare for the Worst”
Optimistic“Hope for the Best”
Realistic
TolerateLittle Risk
TolerateMuch Risk
Rea
sona
ble
Bes
t C
ase
Mos
t Li
kely
Cas
e
Rea
sona
ble
Wor
st C
ase
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes(in event context; for a given community)
![Page 30: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
90% 10%
% exceedance
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Rea
sona
ble
Bes
t C
ase
Rea
sona
ble
Wor
st C
ase
Mos
t Li
kely
Cas
e
![Page 31: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Rea
sona
ble
Bes
t C
ase
Rea
sona
ble
Wor
st C
ase
Mos
t Li
kely
Cas
e
![Page 32: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Most Likely Scenario
![Page 33: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Danger
ReasonableWorst Case
Scenario
Marginof Safety
ReasonableBest CaseScenario
![Page 34: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Prepare
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Under-Prepare{relative to latest forecast}
Marginof Danger
{relative to latest forecast}Over-Prepare
Marginof Safety
![Page 35: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Prepare
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Under-Prepare{relative to latest forecast}
Marginof Danger
{relative to latest forecast}Over-Prepare
Marginof Safety
increasing regret potential lives/propertyAdded loss of
time/resourcesAdded loss of
![Page 36: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Danger
ReasonableWorst Case
Scenario
Marginof Safety
ReasonableBest CaseScenario
increasing regret potential Added loss oftime/resources
Added loss oflives/property
![Page 37: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
ReasonableWorst Case
Scenario
Marginof Safety
![Page 38: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Most Likely Scenario Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
Latest Forecast Forecast with Safety Margin
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 39: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
ReasonableWorst Case
Scenario
Marginof Safety
![Page 40: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Safety
![Page 41: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Safety
![Page 42: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Forecasters’ Perspective
10% Exceedance Margin of Safety
Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 43: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
20% Exceedance Margin of Safety
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 44: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
30% Exceedance Margin of Safety
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 45: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Latest Forecast
Most Likely Scenario
WIND THREATPotential for wind > 110 mph
Potential for wind 74-110 mph
Potential for wind 58-73 mph
Potential for wind 39-57 mph
Wind < 39 mph
![Page 46: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Safety
![Page 47: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
60%70%80%90% 40% 30% 20% 10%
% exceedance
Latest Forecast
(in event context; for a given community)
Risk Tolerance: Spectrum of Plausible Outcomes
TolerateMuch Risk
TolerateLittle Risk
~ 50%
Marginof Safety
No More Deterministic
SLOSH
![Page 48: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
“Hurricane forecasts are not perfect. Uncertainty must be accounted for when the risk to life and property is great.”
To Summarize:
![Page 49: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
“Forecast uncertainty may be addressed both qualitatively and quantitatively.”
To Summarize:
![Page 50: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
“Briefers can use scenario-based language to effectively convey decision support information.”
To Summarize:
![Page 51: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
• Centered on the Latest Forecast• Most Likely Scenario• Most Likely Alternate Scenario• Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
To Summarize:
![Page 52: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
“Exceedance probabilities may be used to accommodate risk according to a customer’s risk tolerance (i.e. to smartly narrow the safety margin if appropriate).”
To Summarize:
![Page 53: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
“Remember, regardless of form, both wind speed and storm surge probabilities are location specific.”
To Summarize:
![Page 54: Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support · Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV) David Sharp. Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support. NOAA/National](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050410/5f87aa5abf206b2ec0740d48/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Thank You