sas forum portugal
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Dr. Igor SchnakenburgSAS-Forum Portugal 09.11.2010
New Ways to Optimise Campaigns
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Altran Group
International Entrepreneur – Present in Over 20 Countries
Founded 1982in Paris
17.200 Employees
Turnover 2009:
1,400 Mill. €
European Leader in Innovation Consulting
International Coverage:• Global Account Management
• Competence Networks
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TechnologyR&D
Consulting
Information Systems Consulting
Strategy & Management
Consulting
Altran Offers a Broad Consulting Portfolio
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Business Intelligence (BI)
Executive Dashboards
Financial Monitoring
Marketing Intelligence
Loyalty Programs
Data Mining & Risk Management
Data Governance / Data Quality
Operational Activities Monitoring
Technical BI Migrations
Partnerships:
Data Quality
BI
EP
M4
8Offers
BI Portfolio @ Altran CIS
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A question arises …
Are my Sunday breadrolls really the best?
„Our breadrolls are the best in town!“
Enquiring with the bakery:
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One question remains…
Are my Sunday breadrolls really the best?
I have to buy other breadrolls.
(no alternatives!)
Measurement and comparison are necessary:
Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and
Optimisation potential
Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis
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What is obvious with breadrolls seems less obvious with campaigns …
Are my campaigns really the best?
„Our campaigns are the best!“
Enquiring with the campaign manager:
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One question remains…
Are my campaigns really the best?
I have to run simultaneous campaigns.
(no alternatives!)
Measurement and comparison are necessary:
Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation potential
Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis
Campaigns for comparison
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One question remains …
Campaigns for comparison
Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation potential
Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis
About disadvantages:
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About disadvantages: Costs
3 possibilities for simultaneous campaigns
1. Advertise competitors products:
2. Advertise different product:
3. Virtual campaign:
CounterproductiveIneffecientTwice expensive
IneffecientExpensiveIrrelevant
SimpleCost-minimisingEfficient
Virtual campaign: approx. 10% * of the selected customers will simply NOT be contacted
Contacted = Target group Not contacted = Control group
* Precise percentage depends on general framework.
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One question remains …
Campaigns for comparison
Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis
About Disadvantages
Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation potential
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About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (1/8) guarantee representativity
less than 18
18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Target group
less than 18
18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Control group
less than 18
18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Control group
Representative – mirrors distribution of the target group
Not representative – considerably different distribution than target group
Typical properties: Geo-status, salary, …
Age distribution of target group
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Control group is representativeiff p(χ²) > 0,1
About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (2/8) in all relevant criteria distributions have to match
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Statistical Significance,iff p(χ²) ≤ 0,05
About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (3/8) Analysis of results
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• Conversion Rate
• Lift (Grundrauschen)
• Liftbeitrag als Ergebnis
• Return on InvestmentTarget Group Control Group
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Conversion Rate(overall)
Conversion Rate(focus product)
Overall conversion rate is significantly different, however not for the product in focus.
Relationship to customer OK, focus product campaign feeble.
About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (4/8) Descriptive parameters
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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)
• Liftbeitrag als Ergebnis
• Return on Investment
Equally structured target group produces conversions independent of campaigning!
Lift counts the conversions that can be attributed to the
campaign (230 conversions).
Target Group Control Group0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Conversion Rate(overall)
Conversion Rate(focus product)
Lift = 0,23%-points
Background Noise
About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (5/8) Descriptive parameters
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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage
• Return on Investment
Equally structured target group contains earnings independent of campaigning(wrong: 1.240 * 900€ = 1,1 Mio. €).
Earnings due to campaigning are 230*900€ = 207.000€.
Target Group Control Group0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Leverage(900€ /conversion)
Conversion Rate(overall)
Campaign profit
Campaignindependent
About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (6/8) Descriptive parameters
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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage• Return on Investment
(RoI)
RoI describes profit per spent Euro of the additional conversions due to campaigning
How many Euro were earnt given any Euro spent? RoI = -100%: total loss of investment RoI = 0%: investment equals the profit due to campaigning
RoI of this campaign is (207-130*)/130 = 59%,
i.e. per Euro spent 59 Cent earnt.
Earnings Costs0
50
100
150
200
250
Earningsvs. Costs
Conversion Rate(whole)
Profit
Invest
* Costs of campaign with 100.000 people were assumed to be approx. 130 T€.
About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (7/8) Descriptive parameters
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• Conversion Rate• Characteristics of campaign
• Lift (Background Noise)• Efficiency of campaign
• Lift Leverage• Leverage of campaign
• Return on Investment (RoI)• Performance of campaign
• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage• Return on Investment
(RoI)
About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (8/8) Descriptive parameters
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One question remains …
Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation potential
Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis
About advantages:
Campaigns for comparison
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About advantages: Possibility to compare
B
A
For second best offer company earns only 750€ (instead of 900€).
Also conversion rate in target group is clearly lower:
Target group Control group0
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Conversion Rate(whole)
Conversion Rate(focus product)
STILL THIS CAMPAIGNS PERFORMED A LOT BETTER (COMPARED TO CONTROL GROUP):
ANY INVESTED EURO RETURNED 2,94€!
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Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation
potential• Time & Effort for analysis
Daisadvantages• Costs
About advantages:
Campaigns for comparison
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About advantages: Learnings and optimisation potential: Traffic-lights
Due to quantification it becomes possible to map to traffic-lights and reports which might even be legible for management.
PARAMETER UNSATISFYING :
CHANGES REQUIRED!
PARAMETER NOTSATISFYING :
CHECK PROPERLY!
PARAMETER SATISFYING :
RE-RUN POSSIBLE!
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About advantages: Learnings and optimisation potential: Channel dependance and campaign combinations
Outlet
Call Center
Invoice
Possible channels: Possible combinations (follow-up campaigns):
… can and should be examined (quantified).… can and should be compared and checked.
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About advantages: Correct Predictions and Forecasts
circulation
Conversions
Doubled circulationSimple circulation
Conversionscounted
wrongforecast
correctforecast
Background Noise
Why is the number of conversions not doubled with doubled circulation?
When ordering due to predicted conversion the correct forecast will be even less!
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Closed Loop as a basis of continuous optimisation in campaign performance
Combine Learnings and experience
Focus on right product and campaign combinations
(learning matrix)
Process of planning Campaigns:
Selection of campaign participants
Roll-out of campaign
Analysis of any particular campaign
If need be: minor adjustments in active process
Routine reporting of all campaignes (possibility to compare)
If need be: specific analyses for specific campaigns
Plan
ning
Se
lect
ionR
un
ning
An
alys
isMeasure
and
Learn
30Presentation title / date / confidential / Issued
by ...30
www.altran-cis.pt
Dr. Igor SchnakenburgSenior ConsultantEmail: [email protected]: +49 (0)170 919 8272