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SARAS GROUP 2013-2017 Strategy and Business Plan 20 March 2013

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Refining is an essential part of crude oil value chain• It is not reasonable to imagine that Europe will become the only region without a refining industry

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Page 1: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

SARAS GROUP

2013-2017 Strategy and Business Plan

20 March 2013

Page 2: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Operational Excellence – “Project Focus”

Agenda

2

Section 1 Overview

Section 2 Saras Business Model

Section 3

Section 4

Group Strategy and Business Plan

page 3

page 10

page 19

page 30

Section 5 Further Investment Opportunities page 40

Section 6 Disclaimer page 46

Page 3: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 1

Overview

3

Page 4: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Source: JBC

EU refining as an essential piece of the “oil value chain”

4

• Refining is an essential part of crude oil value chain

• It is not reasonable to imagine that Europe will become the only region without a refining industry

• Europe has always been short diesel, and it will continue to be even more so, because IOCs are exiting the EU refining sector

Page 5: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

New crude productions need EU refineries as a reliable output

5

• Crude oil production is expected to grow remarkably in the coming years (Iraq, Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan, etc.), and these crude oils have a natural elective market: Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

• NOCs in those regions are well aware of the above trends, and they are looking with interest at the European downstream sector, in order to secure reliable outputs for their growing production

Source: JBC Research (Mar 2013)

Kazakhstan

Iran & IraqAzeri

Russia

Page 6: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Source: Argus (Feb2013)

Additional Developments in crude availability in Europe

6

• Russia, as stated by senior official recently in Houston, has very ambitious plans to increase production from existing fields and also through the development of new Arctic frontiers. The natural outlet for these crudes is Europe through the new export port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic

• The amazing increase in domestic US and Canadian crude oil productions is progressively displacing traditional supply sources such as Nigeria, West Africa, Algeria, Libya and in the future probably also Venezuela creating further opportunities for Med refiners

• On the “sour” crude supply in the MED we are currently missing Syria, Iran and Sudan. Also, Kurdistan production levels are temporarily reduced. When things will normalize, we expect strong improvements in the sour margin

Source: Argus (Feb2013)

+35% in 48 months

Page 7: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

WTI vs. Brent, and LLS as a new benchmark

• Due to the “Cushing Syndrome”, towards the end of 2010, WTI discounts to Brent started to widen very significantly

• In 2012 however, the outlook has started to change (pipeline reversals, crude being moved by train, etc.)

• The above developments should progressively resolve the congestion in Cushing and bring the differential back to more normalized levels

Source: Argus

• The US Gulf sweet market will become progressively more related to LLS than to WTI

• For years LLS has been a blend of offshore sweet imports with domestic production

• Growing volumes of LLS have started to be available on a regular basis (200kbd of Bakken flowing into St. James; Eagle Ford moving into Louisiana; 650 kbd of sweet imports still moving into US Gulf coast)

7

Page 8: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Source: Platts

Market Volatility as challenge but also a source of opportunities

8

• The roles of crude oil producers, traders and refiners are evolving: the large swings in prices, volatility and demand trends require a proactive presence on the markets, balancing physical activities with trading opportunities

• Refiners can leverage on their natural “long” exposure to product crack spreads, creating additional value by trading around hedging positions

• It becomes necessary to have a comprehensive perspective on margin evolution and its fundamentals

Page 9: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Size and Complexity as key competitive advantages

9

• Further consolidation in the EU refining sector is expected, and this will increase the differential between simple refining configuration and highly complex and efficient players. Thanks to its ideal configuration, size, complexity and flexibility, Saras demonstrated that its refinery can regularly over-perform the market, even in the most difficult scenarios

• As a matter of fact, Saras refinery is unique: taking into consideration that building new refineries is impossible in Europe, Saras geographic location and its characteristics make it a very interesting partner for large crude oil producers (be it Russian, FSU, Middle Eastern, African, etc.)

3rd Highest Nelson Complexity Index (9.2) among large EU refiners (i.e. distillation capacity > 200kbd)

Page 10: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 2

Saras Business Model

10

Page 11: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

11

Overview of Saras Businesses

Refining1

• One of the largest high complexity refineries in the Mediterranean Sea

• 300k barrels per day of refining capacity (about 15% of Italy’s refining capacity)

• 250 kb/d FCC equivalent capacity

• More than 80% of production is of medium and light distillates

Power Generation2

• The largest liquid fuel gasification plant in the world (IGCC)

• 575 MW of installed power -conversion of heavy refining residues into clean gas

• Electricity production of approximately 4.3 - 4.4 TWh

• Attractiveregulated tariff until 2021

Wind Energy4

• Wind farm with capacity of 96 MWin Ulassai(Sardinia)

• Pipeline for additional 200 MW wind parks

– Full authorisationfor wind park of 97.5 MW in Romania (permit upgrade to 120MW in progress)

Supply & Trading, Marketing

3

• ~150 crude cargoes supplied every year from wide range of crude sources

• Marketing activities in Italy and Spain

• 11% wholesale market share in Italy, 8% wholesale market share in Spain

• 114 retail stations in Spain

• Balanced and differentiated portfolio on sales, not only a FOB player

Other Activities5

• Presence in industrial engineering services for the oil sector

– Environmental monitoring and protection, industrial efficiency (Sartec, 151 employees)

• Gas exploration activities

– Two site permits for exploration in Sardinia (Eleonora and Igia)

Page 12: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Operating Model

� Site margin

� Trading margin

� Wholesale margin

� Inventory

� Production

� Operational availability

� Fixed costs (maintenance, operating & personnel costs)

NewCo Refining company(Industrial Supersite)

� Focused on operational excellence and technology exploitation

� Contractual agreements with crude oil owners

Supply & Trading

� Production planning (selection of crude types)

� Crude purchase

� Asset backed trading

� Crude oil inventory ownership

� Cargo Market

� Refined oil products inventory ownership

� Wholesale and Retail

Focus on Technology, Skills and Know-How

New Top management hired to lead the NewCo Refining Supersite, in order to energize and drive the change

Clear Ownership of Performances

Supply and Trading NewCo Refining Supersite

12

Page 13: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Commercially Driven Approach to Exploit Asset Potential

13

3 different conversion

cycles optimise crude

runs

Ability to process

large variety of crudes

Integration with Power Generation

and Petchem

Downstream integration to

access inland

markets

Large flexibility in

logistics and product specs

Page 14: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

14

Today

Tomorrow

Positioning Across Refining Value Chain

Crude Supply Processing Sales

• Crude slate flexibility

• Crude trading

• Three different conversion cycles

• Commercially driven runs

• Inventory management

• Cash & Carry• Dynamic forward

trading

• FOB cargo market• DEL cargo market• Saras integrated

downstream system

• Arbitrage trading• Logistical positioning

for inland access

Co

mp

lex

ity le

ve

l

Continuously Investigating Further Opportunities

+ + +

Adapting to Changing Environment Across the Value Chain

+

-

Page 15: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Main Product Outflow Routes from Saras Refinery

15

Integratedflows with IGCC

~1.1 MM ton

Pipeline flow with Petchem:

~0.5 MM ton

Cargo to Saras Wholesale /

Retail System~2.2 MM ton

Inland Sardinia Market via

Truck:~1.1 MM ton

Well Integrated and Diversified Product Flows

IIIa

I

IV

Source: Saras 2012 data NB: Total Spanish sales equal to 1.6 MM ton

IIa

Integrated super-site flows

FOB & Delivered

Cargo Market

~9.4 MM ton

IIIb

IIbPower

to grid

Italian system1.5 MM ton

Spanish system (1)

0.7 MM ton

FOB sales6.4 MM ton

DEL sales3.0 MM ton

1.4 MM ton

-0.9 MM ton

Trading to

optimiseportfolio

0.4 MM ton

Page 16: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Saras Strong Positions Towards Inland Markets

16

Italian system

0.8

0

20112010

1.5 1.5

2012

1

2

Spanish system

0.91.8

2

4

2.51.8

20122010

1.3

2011

1.6

0

Local Supply

0.9

0.7 MM ton

Visco

Decal

Ravenna

Torre

Sigemi

Arcola

Barcelona

PalmaCartagena

Civitav.

Livorno

1.5 MM ton

Total sales1.6 MM ton

Local supply

Source: Saras 2012 data

Page 17: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

North WestA

TuscanyB

LazioC

North EastD

Adriatic CoastE

CampaniaF

2015 Supply & Demand in Italy

17

Note: Balance based on 2015 estimated demand vs. expected supply (incl. EST development in SdB) Source: Wood Mackenzie, UP

Mt

2

0

-2Gasoline

2.0

Gasoil

-1.6

Mt

0,5

0,0

-0,5

-1,0Gasoline

0.4

Gasoil

-0.9

Mt

0

-2

-4

Gasoline

-1.1

Gasoil

-3.6

Mt

0

-1

-2

-3

Gasoline

-0.8

Gasoil

-2.1

Mt

0

-1

-2

-3Gasoline

-0.6

Gasoil

-2.4

Mt

0

-1

-2

Gasoline

--0.5

Gasoil

-1.8

From Own & Third-party Depots, Saras can ideally exploit domestic imbalances

Oil Refinery

Third party Oil Depots

Saras Group Oil Depots

A

D

E

B

C

F

Page 18: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

2015 Supply & Demand Europe

18

� Diesel/gasoli deficit in Europe is expected to continue growing out to 2025, while gasoline and fuel oil will remain oversupplied

� NEW and mature economies in the MED have limited potential for demand growth, due to market saturation and efficiency improvements

� Middle East (Turkey in particular), North Africa and C&EE have astrong growth potential, because their current per-capita oil use is low. Once economic recovery starts to filter down to consumers’disposable incomes, demand will grow strongly

Source: JBC Energy

Saras central position in MED is ideal to supply North Africa & Middle East

Source: Wood Mackenzie

kb/dkb/d

Page 19: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 3

Group Strategy and Business Plan

19

Page 20: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Saras Group Business Plan 2013 – 2017

20

• Key assumptions behind the scenarios considered

• Evolution of Saras’ refining and power generation segments

• Improvements coming from new “Project Focus” initiatives

• Consolidated forecast financials on a “pro-forma” basis(1)

1. “Pro-forma” means that turnarounds’ effects have been annualised on a linear basis in the business plan horizon, both in terms of maintenance costs and reduced production

Page 21: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

1. Real 2012

Business Plan Scenario – Brent Price

21

• Brent price evolution based on EMC Forecasts (dated Nov. 2012)

– Drop during 2013 – 2014 to 105 $/bbl (CAGR -3% nominal, -5% real)

– Growing trend from 2014 to 2017 up to 112 $/bbl (CAGR +2% nominal, +0% real)

Historicals Business Plan

65.472.6

97.0

61.5

79.5

111.3 111.6 110.0 113.0 112.0105.0107.8

101.4104.4103.7100.9105.7

0

50

100

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Brent, $/bbl

Real Brent(1)Nominal Brent

-3% +2%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 22: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (I / III)

22

2.6

5.67.1

6.27.3

8.7

1.8 1.82.8 2.1

4.5 4.7

2.8 3.3 3.2

0.7 0.6 0.9(1.1)

2.1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Margin ($/bbl)

EMCSaras

Refining Margin – Historical Trend

Refining Margin – Business Plan

+2.4

Avg.

2.2

4.6

Avg. Premium vs. EMC equal to +2.4$/bbl:

3.64.4

5.3 5.45.7

3.64.2

5.0 5.0 5.2

1.22.0

2.8 2.9 3.1

1.21.9

2.6 2.6 2.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Margin ($/bbl)

Saras Real 2012 Saras Nominal EMC Real 2012 EMC Nominal

• Refining margin forecast from 2013 to 2017 based on EMC Forecast report dated Nov’12

– EMC estimates are the latest publicly available and Saras has historically reported the comparison between its own margin and EMC benchmark

• A premium of +2.4 $/bbl has been applied to the EMC margin to derive Saras margin

– Equal to the average premium realised by Saras vs. EMC from 2003 to 2012

• EMC Refining margin is expected to increase to3.1 $/bbl in 2017 from1.2$/bbl in 2013 (nominal terms)

• Saras refining margin is estimated to be 3.6$/bbl in 2013 vs.

– 5.7$/bbl nominal in 2017 (CAGR +12%)

– 5.2$/bbl real in 2017(CAGR +10%)

Page 23: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

13.3

14.014.3

13.3

15.5

14.614.5

12

13

14

15

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

23

• The positive impact of Project Focus initiatives implemented in 2012 has been included in the Business Plan

• Fixed costs are assumed to grow at inflation post 2014

MM ton

Avg.14.2

Refinery Runs• Average refinery runs from the

period 2006-2012 were equal to 14.2 MM tons

• 2013 throughput in line with historical average (at 14.3 MM tons) and afterwards it will increase up to 15.0 Mt in 2014, due to MHC2 revamping (+0.7 MM tons)

Throughput in

2013 equal to

14.3 MM ton

2014 – 2017Average

15 MM ton

Historicals Business Plan

Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (II / III)

221219236229237

186212

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€ MM

Avg.220

Fixed Costs

Fixed costs in

2013 equal to

€215 MM/y

Historicals Business Plan

Page 24: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

1. Real 2013 24

135.7 128.2148.8

43.6 44.867.6

80.0 81.6 83.2 84.9 86.6

32.0 51.1

94.7

46.4

18.3

29.430.0

167.7179.3

243.5

63.1

97.0

110

81.6 83.2 84.9 86.690.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Capex (€ MM)

Historicals Business Plan

HSE and Maint. Capacity Growth

• The business plan assumes no

additional growth Capex from

2013 onwards

– In 2013, €30 MM Capex for

MHC2 revamping

• Maintenance and HSE Capex

amounts to €80 MM(1) per annum

from 2013 to 2017 (on average)

• Projected Capex incorporate the

optimisation of maintenance /

revamping cycles resulting from

Project Focus implementation

• Maintenance Capex assumed to

grow equal to inflation during the

business plan period

Average 2007-

2012 capex for

HSE and to

maintain capacity

equal to €95 MM

Completion of MHC2

revamping

No Additional Growth Investments are Required in the Business Plan Horizon as Historical Investments Have Made Saras Refinery Competitive for the Coming Years

Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (III / III)

Capex

Page 25: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

1. Real 2012 25

• Electricity sale price assumed equal to CIP6 power tariff

• Prices calculated on the basis of the assumed composition of the reference basket as forecasted by EMC (Brent, Gasoil, Low Sulphur Fuel Oil)

• IGCC Fixed Costs assumed to grow only by inflation from 2014 onwards, with 2013 base level of €92 MM reflecting the improvements achieved through Project Focus

123.1 120.3 121.2 124.6 126.5120.7 115.7 114.2 115.2 114.6

0

50

100

150

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

€/MWh

CIP6 Real(1)CIP6 Nominal

Business Plan Scenario – IGCC (I / II)

CIP6 Tariff (Electricity Sale Price)

Fixed Costs

9394103103102104104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€ MM

Avg.101 Fixed costs

equal to

€92 MM in 2013

Historicals Business Plan

Page 26: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

26

• The business plan assumes no additional growth Capex from 2012 onwards

• Maintenance and HSE Capexamounts to €15 MM(1) per annum from 2013 to 2017 (on average)

• The amount of projected Capexincorporates the optimisation of maintenance/revamping cycles resulting from Project Focus implementation

• Maintenance Capex assumed to grow equal to inflation over the business plan period

Business Plan Scenario – IGCC (II / II)

1. Real 2013

Capex

Capex (€ MM)

Historicals Business Plan

16.215.915.615.315.0

8.7

31.2

10.3

12.4

26.5

20.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average 2007-2012

equal to €18.2 MM

Page 27: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

27

Marketing:

• Italy: EBITDA improvements due to Project Focus initiatives (e.g. entry to bunkering market)

• Spain: Saras will continue to implement cost reduction initiatives, as well as the rationalisation of its client portfolio and of the working capital. Moreover, during 2013 the Group will complete the restructuring programme started towards the end of 2012, with the objective to achieve structural improvements to EBITDA of approx. €10 MM per year

Wind:

• Limited capital expenditure on the wind business during the business plan horizon. Various monetisation alternatives are currently under review, in particular with regards to new projects in the pipeline.

Gas Exploration:

• the Group presented in mid March 2013 the Environmental Assessment Procedure (V.I.A.), which stems from the permitting procedure required to start drilling activities in an area located in Sardinia (“Eleonora” project). According to geological estimates, it is expected to achieve an annual production of 70 up to 170 million cubic meters of natural gas, for a production period of more than 20 years.

Business Plan Scenario – Marketing, Wind and Gas Exploration

Page 28: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Overview of New Initiatives Included in the Business Plan

28

Gasoline Density

ZSM5 FCC

Gasoline HDS

Outlet Flow-metres

Direct Inflows

EE Incentives

EE Investments

En

erg

y

Eff

icie

ncy

Pro

du

ct

Yie

ld

Alkylation

6

8

10

11

12

13

9

7

DFT

Crude Trading

Cash & Carry

Bunker

WholesaleSu

pp

ly &

Tra

din

g 1

192

3

4

5

Slurry Filter14

Business Plan Impacton EBITDA (€ MM)

30 57 62

4 7

2 5

4 10

2 5

1 2

2 2

7

5

10

5

2

2

7 7

3 3 3

4

2013 2014 2015

2 5

3 5

1 2

1 3

1 1

5

5

2

3

2

- - 4

Page 29: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

• Group EBITDA increases by approx. ~€185 MM from 2013 to 2015, of which ~€175 MM from refining segment (IGCC EBITDA reported is assumed flat)

• Group EBITDA remains flat from 2015 to 2017 (+€34 MM on a nominal basis) driven by constant EMC refining margins

• Working Capital will be rather volatile, as usual, due also to possible changes in commodity prices

614591583502399

0150300450600750

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1. Consolidation assumes IGCC EBITDA reported

Comparable EBITDA(1)

Capex

€ MM

€ MM

126 97 99101 103

0

40

80

120

160

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

“Pro-forma” Consolidated Economics

29

Page 30: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 4

Operational Excellence – “Project Focus”

30

Page 31: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

31

Saras Launched the Operational Excellence Program 3 Years Ago

So far Achieved Significant Results, More Yet to Come

A Project Conceivedto Pursue Excellence…

…Structured in ThreeWaves of Intervention…

As an independent refiner, Saras recognised that one of the main levers of value creation was pursuing operational excellence

Despite satisfactory operational performance, Saras deemed that there was additional room to improve efficiency

Wave 1 (2010)

“Start the Change”

• New organisation of the refinery• Focus on Asset Management• Energy savings (quick wins)• Product yield boost for 1st tier units

• Labor cost and HR restructuring• Reduction of refinery fixed costs• Giveaways reduction

Wave 2 (2011)

“Embed the Change”

• Commercial activities• Supply and trading• Extension of product yield activities to 2nd tier units

Wave 3 (2012)

“Enlarge the Change”

Strong Commitment by Both Saras Management and Employees• More than 25 workgroups and 120-150 resources directly involved

Page 32: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Three Main Areas of Impact of Current Initiatives

32

Refining Margin Enhancement

Cost Reduction

WC Reduction • Inventory reduction

• Maintenance cost optimisation

• Reduction of utilities costs

• Fixed cost optimisation (people related expenses and discretionary costs)

Supply & Trading

– Reduction of demurrage, optimisation of fleet costs, inventory management, etc.

Energy Efficiency

– Reduction of flare losses, reduction of fuel and steam consumption, etc.

Product Yield

– Yield optimisation on almost all refinery units, from toppings to HDS units

Summary of Main Initiatives

Page 33: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

0,090,100,100,07

0,19

0,340,37

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

Baseline

>2010

2010 1H 2010 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H

Initiative Examples: Reduction of Flare Losses and Fixed Costs

33

Economic Impact: ~€13MM Saving per year(~40kton Fuel Gas Recovery)

Run Rate Flare

Losses: 0.09% ofTotal Processing

Reduction of Flare Losses

Flare Losses (% of Total Processing)

200

150

100

221

30

Fixed Costs (EUR MM)

300

2012

250

2011

219

32

2010

236

4

2009

229

2008

237

2007

186

2006

212

Fixed Costs (Annual Report)

Savings (Focus)

Base growth (inflation from 2006 figures)

Reduction of Fixed Costs

Impact of cost saving initiatives offsets 6 years of inflation

Page 34: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Initiative Examples: Reduction of Oil Inventories

34

Reduction in Total Oil Inventories

• Revision of scheduling and planning processes

• Implementation of tools to monitor and forecast inventory levels, to take timely corrective actions

• Optimisation of tank allocation

312327

520

454

71

76

1.382

1.250

479 393

0

300

600

900

1.200

1.500

Avg 2011 Avg 2012

Crude Oils Intermediates Finished Products Others

kton -132kt(-€100 MM)

Three Main Actions taken to Reduce Inventories

Page 35: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

New Focus Initiatives Planned in 2012 Currently Being ImplementedHave approx. €60-€80 MM/y EBITDA Impact Target by 2015

New Focus Initiatives

(€62 – €82 MM/y)

35

Business Plan Includes Conservative Estimatesfor the Above Initiatives (i.e. the Lower-End of the Identified Range)

Energy Efficiency

(€22 – €26 MM/y)

Product Yield(€23 – €29 MM/y)

Refining(€45 – €55 MM/y)

• Improvement of refinery EII (Energy Intensity Index) thanks to:

– Optimisation of thermal integration between units

– Other minor investments

• Further yield improvements, e.g.

– composition of gasoline pool

– LSFO quality

Advanced Trading

(€12– €21 MM/y)

Commercial Business

Development(€5 – €6 MM/y)

Supply & Trading

(€17 – €27 MM/y) • Access and development of inland market; entry into specialty segments

– Further development of wholesale market

– Bunker

• Positioning in Asset Backed Trading to leverage refinery flexibility and price volatility, e.g.

– Exploitation of crack and crude volatilities

– Crude trading

Page 36: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Advanced Trading: €12 – €21 MM/y Additional EBITDA Thanks to Implementation of 3 Main Asset Backed Trading Initiatives

36

Additional Resources and Capabilities are Required to Support the Current Organisation in Order to Achieve Full Potential Benefits

Utilise storage capacity – became available through inventory optimisation initiative – to take advantage of contango (and backwardation) play• Value extraction from forward price curves• Leveraging on availability of logistics / tanks in refinery / depots

Volatility trading strategy on crack forward curves • Trading of short paper positions exploiting refinery long position as

natural hedge

Crude trading to exploit crude differential volatility• Increased presence on crude market and visibility on forward netback• Fully exploit production flexibility of the refinery

(Reverse) Cash & Carry

DFT(Dynamic Forward Trading)

Crude Trading

1

2

3

5 - 8

5 - 9

2 - 4

~12 – 21

1. EBITDA improvement by 2015

Benefits(1)

(€ MM/y)

Page 37: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Commercial Business Development: ~€5 – €6 MM/y Incremental EBITDA to be Achieved Through Bunker and Wholesale Growth

37

Entry to the bunker segment with the purchase, blending and servicing of bunker oil from Saras logistic sites• Partnership on Arcola and production and delivery integration with

Sarroch

Market share growth in Italian wholesale business through supply & servicing strategies

Bunker

Wholesale

4

5

3 - 4

~ 2

~5 – 6

Benefits(1)

(€ MM/y)

1. EBITDA improvement by 2015

Page 38: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Refinery: ~€22 – €26 MM/y of Incremental EBITDA As a Function of 3 Main Energy Efficiency Initiatives

38

Completion of initiative started in 2012 and launch of further small investments in 2013• Reducing refinery energy consumption and restoring steam optimal

balance

Maximisation of Direct Inflows Between Units to Reduce Fuel Consumption• Review of operational processes and debottlenecking

Optimisation of EE Incentives• Review of current practices, identification of new opportunities

EE Investments

Direct Inflows

EE Incentives

6

7

8

7 - 9

~ 5

10 - 12

~22 – 26

Benefits(1)

(€ MM/y)

1. EBITDA improvement by 2015

Page 39: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Refinery: ~€23 – €29 MM/y Incremental EBITDAAs a Result of 6 Main Product Yield Initiatives

39

Change in outlet flow-meters calibration policy

Reducing octane loss in gasoline hydro-desulphuring unit • reduction of HDS duty, revision of mercaptane specification on MCN

desulphured stream and technical revision of HDS turndown

Reduction of gasoline density • through optimisation of use of C4 blending

Optimisation of alkylation unit • to exploit high alkylate – butane differential

Improvement in FCC slurry quality • through introduction of mechanical filter

ZSM5 FCC11

Outlet Flow-Metres

13

Gasoline HDS

(U800)

12

GasolineDensity

(C4 blending)

10

Alkylation9

Slurry Filter14

~23 – 29

~ 7

2 - 3

5 - 8

~ 4

2 - 3

3 - 4

Benefits(1)

(€ MM/y)

Improvement of cracking gasoline octane• thanks to ZSM5 additive

1. EBITDA improvement by 2015

Page 40: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 5

Further Investment Opportunities

40

Page 41: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Energy Saving FCC Initiatives – Overview

41

• Substitution of FCC gas and blower compressors based on steam power with new electricity powered equipment

• “Dismantling” of current boiler and steam turbine present in the power station

Description

• Saving approx. 60 kton/y of fuel with a higher consumption of electricity of approx.195 GWh

• Saving on maintenance Capex on the power station

• Reduced environmental impact (reduced consumption of fuel)

Rationale

• Economics dependant on differential between fuel and electricity costsRisks Analysis

• Run rate benefits of approx. €17 MM /y at EBITDA level

• Gross Capex of approx. €65 MM, with Capex savings of approx. €31 MM(1)

• IRR = 25 %

• Discounted payback of 6.5 years

Preliminary Economics

1. Of which €15 MM in 2018 (beyond business plan time frame)

Page 42: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Energy Saving FCC Initiatives – EconomicsBased on current differential between fuel and electricity costs

42

EBITDA

Capex

2017

18

2016

17

2015

10

20142013

€ MM

2020

19

2019

18

2018

18

15

€ MM

202020192018201720162015

-15

2014

16

-30

2013

-20

Free Cash Flow

2019

12

2018

28

2017

12

2016

12

2015

-8-14

2014

€ MM

2020

13

2013

-20

IRR = 25%

Discounted Payback = 6.5 years

€65 MM

Capex

Business Plan Beyond Business Plan Horizon

€31 MMCapex Savings

Page 43: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Other Investment Options: Visbreaking and Steam Reformer

43

An improvement in current differential between heavy and light crudes could make investments that increase refinery flexibility to process heavy crudes an attractive opportunity

Implementation could progress leveraging on earlier activities

1. Revamping of Visbreaking with a new TAR stripping unit, improving operating efficiency of Vacuum 2 (avoiding stripping), and optimising IGCC conversion capacity

– Investment estimate of €170 MM

2. New hydrogen unit (Steam Reformer) of up to 35 kNm3/h hydrogen production, to fully exploit revamping of MHC2 potential and to minimise the negative effect of turn-aroundsand slowdowns of hydrogen producers (CCR, IGCC, Versalis) on diesel production 10ppm

– Investment estimate of €60 MM

Page 44: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Assessment of Long Term Value Creation with IGCC

44

1-2 trains can co-process different types of feedstock...

... such as biomass and waste (together with TAR)

Waste/Biomassto Energy

1-2 trains devoted to Hydrogen production and power supply to Sarroch site...

... allowing a step improvement of energy efficiency of the site with a limited investment

Hydrogen Production and Power Supply for Refinery

Usage of LS crude oil to produce Low Sulphur Fuel Oil…

… exploiting narrow “LSFO-Crude oil” differentials

In this option, 1 IGCC train should be shut down, without any relevant investment

Exploit Opportunities in Low Sulphur Fuel Oil Market

Favourable Economics: Specifically due to large availability of "cheap" heavy crude oils (and probably also more “sour”), with wide “heavy-light” price differentials and consequently high refining margins, and macro environment not depressing electricity prices

IGCC used as today

Potential Alternative Uses Thanks to IGCC Flexibility

Page 45: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ratio HSFO/GO [%]

45

IGCC plant allows Saras to take advantage of Mid-Term scenario for HSFO

Steam torefinery

Power to grid

IGCC simplified block diagram

TAR

OxygenHydrogen to refinery

Gasification Units

Gas turbine

SynGaspurification & H2 separation

Steam turbine

SynGas

• The value of TAR is a function of its viscosity, the price of GO, and the price of HSFO

Page 46: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Section 6

Disclaimer

46

Page 47: Saras Capital Markets Day - BP 2013-17 - FINAL

Disclaimer

47

Certain statements contained in this presentation are based on the belief of the Company, as well as factual assumptions

made by any information available to the Company. In

particular, forward-looking statements concerning the Company’s future results of operations, financial condition,

business strategies, plans and objectives, are forecasts and quantitative targets that involve known and unknown risks,

uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results and condition of the Company to differ

materially from that expressed by such statements