santa cruz county housing: building for a sustainable future
TRANSCRIPT
Leadership Santa Cruz CountyOctober 2nd, 2015
Liz Kroft | Realtor | Mainstream Real Estate Group
Santa Cruz County Housing Building For A Sustainable Future
today we are covering
THEMARKET
THECAUSES
THEIMPACTS
THESOLUTIONS
THEROADBLOC
KS
bill said it best
“I am here to encourage you to consider the vision of what we want to become as a community and how housing is a core driver of those outcomes.”
Bill TysselingExecutive Director
Santa Cruz Chamber Of Commerce
oh, you’re a realtor?
how’s the market?
how’s the weather?Seabright
Bonny Doon
Aptos
Watsonville
Scotts Valley
markets areessentially
determined by
SUPPLYDEMAND
&
underlying factors
ECONOMIC
POLITICAL
DEMOGRAPHIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
average& median
pricenew
listingsactive listings
propertiessold
dayson
market
sale tolist price
ratio
price reductions
months ofinventory
interestrates
2007
2011
2012
2015
2009
Santa Cruz CountyMedian Prices & Interest Rates
Months Of Inventory
5-6 Months = Normal Market
<4 Months = Sellers’ Market
Inventory Is Seasonal#
of H
omes
List
ed
AFFORDABILITY
The Truth About Downpayments
Disconnect Between
Wages & Prices
what isAFFORDABLE
?According to HUD: Families who pay more than 30% of their income for housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities.
The Future Of Interest
Rates
What’s Next?
buyer / sellershift market
frenzy subsides
prices plateau
or decline
…or not
the rental market
rent increased22%
since October 2014
Santa Cruz County Median Rent Trends
Source: Zillow
WE ARE THE 3RD LEAST
AFFORDABLE
COUNTY IN THE
COUNTRY
the worst US rental market in
36 yrs
need to earn $34/hr to afford 2br median rent
…yet unemployment is the lowest in 8 yrs
HIGH PRICES
LOW INVENTORY
LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING
WHAT’S TO
BLAME?
POPULATION GROWTH
• 2010-2014 population rose 3.5%, housing only grew by 0.5%
• AMBAG expects 37,000 more in the next 20 years• UCSC added 700 more freshman than expected fall 2014• Growing families• Priced out of neighboring counties
MARKET CRASH
• Foreclosed owners became renters
• Put the brakes on new construction
• Waylaid building projects• Rising fees discouraged
developers
HOMEOWNERS AREN’T SELLING
• Economic uncertainty• Unable to move up• Capital gains tax bills• New property tax bills• Renting instead of selling• Retiring & aging in place
VACATION RENTALS• More rental income from short-term rentals than
long• Ability to use their home when desired• Appeal of homes vs hotel/motel• Importance of tourism industry to Santa Cruz
LACK OF LAND• Much of the mountains & coastline are protected• Public & land trust ownership has increased in the last 10
yrs• Natural capital & stewardship provide incredible revenue • Natural constraints & site characteristics
“Buy land, they ain’t making any more of the stuff.” – Will Rogers
OUR OWN PAST• Long ago adopted principles of slow growth• Measure J in 1978
Also…
• Code & permitting restrictions• Fees and timelines• Elimination of Redevelopment Agencies• Funding for Section 8• County staffing
What Else Drives Prices Up?
• Silicon Valley business growth• Prices in SF and Santa Clara Counties• Wages aren’t keeping pace• Money from overseas• Uneven market recovery• Low interest rates
WHAT ARE THECONSEQUENCES
OF HIGH PRICES & LOW INVENTORY?
Limits Economic Growth Impacts On Families
Effects On Students Forced To Move Away
Limits Personal Savings Changes Demographics
Hardship For Seniors Rise In Homelessness
what to do?who to do it?
Who Should Housing Be Built For & What Type?
Source: Santa Cruz Chamber Study Group
Santa Cruz County• Update plans, codes,
regulations• Accessory dwelling units• Infill, mixed-use & density• Vary types of housing• Height restrictions• Limits on vacation rentals• Affordability programs
Private Developers
Incentives To Build
Improve The Process
Community Support
UCSC• Reconfiguring Dorms• Staff Involvement• Size Of Student Body• New Development
Non-Profits
The InspiringEnterpris
e
Habitat For
Humanity
EquityStone
180/2020
Monterey Bay
Economic Partnershi
p
YOU!
Continue The ConversationAttend Public Hearings
Keep LearningVolunteer
RoadblocksAdequate Resources
Environmental ImpactsProper Infrastructure
FundingEffects On Quality Of Life
Changing Perceptions…Greed
“The path upon which we are traveling will lead us in the not-too-distant future to a tipping point at which we become predominantly an out-commuter, retirement, and 2nd home community, predominantly wealthy and politically uninterested in jobs-housing balance.”
Bill Tysseling
WE ARETOGETHE
R
in this
THE ENDbut stay in touch!
LIZ KROFTMainstream Real Estate Group
[email protected] | 831.854.7489 | www.lizkroft.com
additional resources• Monthly market updates on my blog Additional Resources: • Proposed draft of the updated Santa Cruz County Housing Element• Santa Cruz County Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy• Sustainable Santa Cruz County Plan• Additional Sustainable Santa Cruz County documents• Out of Reach 2015 (report on rent in the US)