sa economic indicators: for the month of may 2013
TRANSCRIPT
SA Economic Indicators:for the month of May 2013
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of May 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
Q2/2007
Q3/2007
Q4/2007
Q1/2008
Q2/2008
Q3/2008
Q4/2008
Q1/2009
Q2/2009
Q3/2009
Q4/2009
Q1/2010
Q2/2010
Q3/2010
Q4/2010
Q1/2011
Q2/2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012
Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
3.1%
5.0%
6.0%
3.0%
4.4%
1.8%
-1.7%
-6.3%
-2.7%
1.7%
3.5%
4.4%
3.1%3.6%
4.4%4.8%
1.9% 1.9%
3.3%2.5%
3.4%
1.2%
2.1%
0.9%
GDP Growth Q2/2007 – Q1/2013
SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)
Updated quarterly (Last updated June 2013)
Source: StatsSA
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of May 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)COMMENTARY
• According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revisions, world GDP growth is expected to reach 3.9% in July and 3.6% in October
• IMF forecasts growth for South Africa to be 3.6% between 2012 and 2016
For the latest period:
• GDP growth rose by 0.9% in Q1/2013, down from 2.1% in Q4/2012. The result was much weaker than expected with forecasts ranging from 1.4% to 2.7%
• The nominal GDP value was R814bn, R1bn less than Q4/2012
• The largest contributors to GDP growth in Q1 were:
– Agriculture, forestry and fishing industry – growth of 4%
– Mining and quarrying industry – growth of 3.7% (up from negative growth of -9.3% in Q4/2012)
– General government services – growth of 2.5%
• Manufacturing saw negative growth of -7.9%
• The modest GDP figures had a negative effect on the performance of the Rand
• It reached a low of R10.08 to the US dollar at time of writing
• “South Africa is suffering a double whammy of a global economy that is muddling along and weak domestic fundamentals.” Elize Kruger, economist at KADD Capital
• Growth at these levels will do little to assist employment – analysts agree that growth of 5% or more is required
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of May 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
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