sa economic indicators: for the month of august 2013
TRANSCRIPT
SA Economic Indicators:for the month of August 2013
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of July 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
Q2/2006
Q3/2006
Q4/2006
Q1/2007
Q2/2007
Q3/2007
Q4/2007
Q1/2008
Q2/2008
Q3/2008
Q4/2008
Q1/2009
Q2/2009
Q3/2009
Q4/2009
Q1/2010
Q2/2010
Q3/2010
Q4/2010
Q1/2011
Q2/2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012
Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
71.8%
78.9%
82.1%
78.5%
75.8% 74.8%
Percentage Household Debt to Disposable Income Q2/2006 to Q2/2013
%
Updated Quarterly (Last Updated: September 2013)
Boom period
SA Economic Indicators
Household Debt
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Effects of low interest rates
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of July 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
SA Economic Indicators
COMMENTARY• In Q4/01, the household debt-to-disposable income ratio stood at 55.3%, by Q2/06 it had increase to 71.8%.
• In Q2/13 the ratio of household debt to disposable income remains high, at 74.8%, which means that for every R100 earned, South Africans have R74,80 debt
• Growth in spending by households and private companies accelerated while that by government slowed in Q2/13
• At the end of Q1/13, credit bureaus held records for 20.8 million credit-active South African consumers
• Currently 9.3 million out of 19 million credit-worthy South Africans are behind on their bills by three months or more
• According to FNB strategist John Loos, “Households are borrowing more on credit cards and store accounts”
• Personal loans account for 11% of total household debt
• Unsecured lending is a problem in South Africa. According to Sarb’s financial report for the year ending March 31, it said unsecured lending by the six banks increased from R321.36bn in December 2011 to R441.27bn in December 2012.
Household Debt
SA Economic Indicatorsfor the month of July 2013
© 2013 Trade Intelligence
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Other SourcesABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; www.businesslive.co.za; www.businessweek.com; www.moneyweb.co.za; www.supermarket.co.za; thesouthafrican.com