russia |economics. slide 2 | september 2012 | economics: discovering russia fsu gdp per capita, 1991...
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Evgeny Gavrilenkov +7 495 258 0521Evgeny_ [email protected]
Anton Stroutchenevski +7 (495) 933 9843Anton_ [email protected]
Economics:Discovering Russia
RUSSIA | ECONOMICS
Slide 2 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
FSU GDP per capita, 1991 and 2011, $
Source: IMF
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
Arm
enia
Aze
rbai
jan
Bel
arus
Esto
nia
Geo
rgia
Kaz
akhst
an
Kyr
gyz
stan
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Mold
ova
Russ
ia
Tajik
ista
n
Turk
men
ista
n
Ukr
aine
Uzb
ekis
tan
1991 2011
Slide 3 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Estonia
LatviaLithuaniaRussia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
MoldovaKyrgyzstan
Armenia
TajikistanUzbekistan
Georgia
Turkmenistan
BelarusAzerbaijan
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 150% 180%External debt/ GDP
GD
P per
cap
ita,
$
FSU GDP per capita and external borrowing, 2011
Source: IMF, CIA, national banks
Russia’s wealth is not dependent on borrowing
Slide 4 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Nominal GDP correlates with the oil price, the former having doubled since 1998 in real terms…
…while the latter has risen even more in nominal terms.
Nominal GDP Real GDP
Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank Investment Research Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank Investment Research
Slide 5 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
… but the export structure is biased toward fuel
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Russian export (left pie) and import breakdown, 2009
68%
11%
6%
6%3%
6%
Fuel
Metals
Chemistry
Machines and equipment
Food and agricultural products
Other
43%
18%
17%
6%
6%3%3% 4%
Machines and equipment
Food and agricultural products
Chemistry
Metals
Textiles
Wood and pulp
Fuel
Other
Slide 6 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Largely due to oil price inflation, fuel’s weight in exports even increased…
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Russian export (left pie) and import breakdown, 1995
42%
27%
10%
10%
6%2%3%
Fuel
Metals
Chemicals
Machines and equipment
Wood and pulp
Food and agricultural products
Other
34%
28%
11%
9%
6%
6%2% 4%
Machines and equipment
Food and agricultural products
Chemicals
Metals
Fuel
Textiles
Wood and pulp
Other
Slide 7 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
… as well as in federal budget revenues
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Russian federal budget revenues breakdown, 2010
46%
54%
Oil and gas
Non-oil and gas
Slide 8 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Since 1999, growth has largely been driven by rising total factor productivity (TFP)…
Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank Investment Research
…but capital accumulation has recently become an equally important driver
Slide 9 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
TFP improved almost in all sectors of the economy
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Average contribution to the value added between 2012 and 2004
Slide 10 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Real value-added growth in raw material extraction has been moderate, 2004=100%
Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank Investment Research
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Raw materials extraction Manufacturing Other GDP at basic prices
Slide 11 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
The fuel sector’s direct contribution to GDP is insignificant…
Note: The tradable sector includes manufacturing industry (excluding fuel processing) and agricultural sector
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Russian GDP breakdown, 2009, basic prices
8%2%
18%
3%
6%
63%
Fuel extraction
Fuel processing
Tradable sector
Supply and redistribution ofelectricity, gas and water
Construction
Services
Slide 12 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Breakdown of value-added and employment by industry, 2011
* value added is calculated at basic prices
Source: State Statistics Service, Troika estimates
Value added,$ bln
Employment,mln
Value added peremployee, $ ’000
Agriculture 63.7 6.4 9.9Fishing 3.3 0.1 23.8Raw materials extraction 167.8 1.0 160.3Manufacturing 251.7 10.8 23.2Supply and redistribution of electricity, gas and water 59.9 2.0 30.2Construction 102.9 5.6 18.4Retail 298.3 13.9 21.5Hotels and restaurants 15.1 1.3 11.6Transport and communication 140.0 5.5 25.3Finance 65.1 1.2 53.1Real estate 184.0 5.5 33.4State administration, military, social services 90.3 3.8 23.7Education 45.0 5.9 7.6Health care 58.0 4.9 11.9Housing and social services 22.8 2.7 8.5
Total 1567.8 70.8 22.1
Slide 13 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Consumer goods Intermediate goods Investment goods
2006 46.2% 36.8% 17.0%2007 44.4% 36.7% 18.9%2008 41.8% 34.4% 23.8%2009 44.3% 36.0% 19.7%2010 40.4% 40.1% 19.5%2011 36.7% 42.0% 21.3%
Source: State Statistics Service
The import structure reflects changes in economic development
Slide 14 | September 2012 | Economics: Discovering Russia
Domestic demand remains a key driver of economic growth
Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank Investment Research