rural livelihoods in png
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Rural Livelihoods in PNG . Colin Hunt School of Economics The University of Queensland. Rural livelihoods in PNG. Population. PNG’s Dual Economy. Small scale . Large scale. PNG’s exports, kina millions. Rural economy. Informal - Formal. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Rural livelihoods in PNGColin HuntSchool of EconomicsThe University of Queensland
Rural Livelihoods in PNG
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Population
Rural 82%
Urban18%
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PNG’s Dual Economy
Small scale
Large scale
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PNG’s exports, kina millions
Agric, 2226 Forest;
477Marine;
233
Minerals; 9144
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Rural economy
SUBSISTENCE
+Surplus
MIXED
Cash crop /fishing+Handicrafts+Processing+Subsistence
COMMERCIAL
Cash crop /fishing+Processing +Transport
INDUSTRIAL
LoggingProcessingPalm oilCoffee Fishing/canning
Informal - Formal
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Human Development Indicators, PNG-Aus
INDICATOR PNG AUS
Life expectancy 61.6 81.9
Years of schooling
4.3 12
Gender inequality
2.96 7.84
Gross national income/head
US$
2,230 38,690
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Ag. Performance 1.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20406080
100120140160180
Agricultural volume Series2Population
Inde
x
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19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20080
50100150200250300350400450500
CocoaCoffeeTeaCopraCopra oilPalm oilRubber
‘000
tonn
esAg. Performance 2.
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Rural development impediments
theft/violence ability to save and borrow inadequate transport/roads poor schooling/ag. extension
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Regress ?
• Law and Order X
• Corruption X
• Skilled labour X
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“ROADS TO RUIN” POST COURIER 2001“In the absence of a large works
program...economic growth will be reduced and poverty will be perpetuated.
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Progress
Digicel bilong ples
Roads
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A boom?
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Minerals
Agriculture
Price
inde
x
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Palm oil projection
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Area
Export value
Hect
ares
US$
mill
ions
Positives RSPO cert
Demand Lease land
But Costs high
Labour short Popn. density Land disputes
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Palm oil production, PNG
•Nulceus estate
•Smallholder ~35% of production
•Company acquires land under lease- leaseback
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Landowner benefit, export logging, US$ millions, 2011
National govern-ment in-
come (log tax), 69
Landowner royalty, 11
Landowner dev’ment, 34
Logging company profit; 38
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To impact rural livelihoods?
Special Agricultural and Business Leases
(SABLs) *
A way of increasing logging, without real agricultural development and without environmental management
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To impact rural livelihoods?
Reduction in Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) programs
To replace logging?
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To impact rural livelihoods?
Massive resource projects Fall in value of exports affecting livelihoods
of millions of small producers?
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Is change sustainable?
Economic impacts: Sustained or transient?
Social impacts: Food security, income distribution issues?
Environmental impacts: Forest loss and pollution?
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Rural Livelihoods in PNG
Colin HuntSchool of Economics
The University of Queensland
Logging oil palm and livelihoods in Papua New Guinea___________________
Symposium at James Cook University20 April, 2011