Rubenstein Ch. 2Population

Icebreaker – Imagining Billions

Q1: The equator stretches approx. 25,000 miles around Earth. If each of the world’s 6.8 billion people was allotted 1 yard of space. How many times would the current human population circle the globe? (Hint: 1,760 yards = 1 mile)

Q2: If a human, beginning at birth, started to count to world’s population. How many years would it take him to count all 6.8 billion people? (Note: For each second he/she would count one person)

Key Issues

1.) Where is the world’s population distributed?

2.) Where has the world’s population increased?

3.) Why is overpopulation increasing at different rates

in different countries?

4.) Why might the world face an overpopulation

problem?

Population Video Clip

Distribution of World’s Population

• Population Concentrations

- Four Large Population Clusters

- Other Clusters

• Sparsely Populated Regions

- Physical Environments

• Population Density

- Arithmetic Density

- Physiological Density

- Agricultural Density

Population Cartogram – Countries displayed by size of population rather than land area. Countries named on map have at least 50 million inhabitants.

- 4 Population Clusters: East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Western Europe- 2/3 of World’s Inhabitants live within one of these four regions- China is world’s most populous country at 1.3 Billion People- China & India contain 30% of the World’s Population!!!!!

How does physical environment impact where people live?

Ecumene – Portion of Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement

Has ecumeneincreased or decreased throughout the years?

ECUMENE

Population Density

• Arithmetic Density – Total number of people

divided by total land area.

• Physiological Density – Number of people

supported by a unit of arable land.

• Agricultural Density – Ratio of number of

farmers to amount of arable land.

Arithmetic Density

-Population / Land Area = Arithmetic Density (Population Density)-Brazil 200,000,000 / 8,500,000 = 23.5 Arithmetic Density (23.5 persons per square kilometer -Measures how densely or sparsely populated a region is

What is oddAbout Russia?

Physiological Density

-The higher the physiological density, the greater pressure that people may place on the land to produce enough food-Egypt has an arithmetic density of 75, but physiological density is 2,580…..why???-95% of population lives within Nile River Valley (small area)

Distribution of World Population Growth

• Natural Increase Rate

– CBR (Crude Birth Rate)

– CDR (Crude Death Rate)

• Fertility

– TFR (Total Fertility Rate)

• Mortality

– IMR (Infant Mortality Rate)

– Life Expectancy

Natural Increase Rate (NIR)

-Current NIR in world is 1.2, meaning population of world is growing 1.2% each year-1.2% of 6.5 billion is approx. 80 million (equivalent to pop. of Germany)-Increase of the NIR to 2% would result in world pop. increasing 132 million each year-Majority of natural increase is occurring in LDCs (Less Developed Countries)-Less resources in LDCs mean it’s harder to maintain population

Total Fertility Rates (TFR)

-Avg. number of children a woman will have in her childbearing years (15-49)-Varies significantly between MDCs and LDCs-All European nations below 2.0 -China controlling TFR by issuing 1-child policy

Infant Mortality Rates (IMR)

-Number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age-Reflects a country’s health care system-Varies significantly between MDCs and LDCs

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

-Total number of deaths per 1,000 people/per year-Why does Denmark (one of world’s wealthiest countries) have a higher CDR than Mongolia (one of the poorest)?-How can the U.S. have a higher CDR than Saudi Arabia?

The Demographic Transition

Population process with four stages, and every country

is in one of them. Process has beginning, middle,

and end, and is not irreversible. Also, countries do

not revert to an earlier stage

Stage 1: Low Growth

Stage 2: High Growth

Stage 3: Moderate Growth

Stage 4: Low Growth

The Demographic Transition

Q1: In what stage does greatest population increase occur?Q2: What stage is the United States currently in? Explain.Q3: Why would CBR be continually decreasing?

Demographic Transition

• Stage 1: 8000 B.C.E. to 1750 C.E. – food supplies and farming unpredictable, thus CBR and CDR fluctuated frequently

• Stage 2: CDR decreases, while CBR remains the same. Industrial Revolution helped farmers increase food production.

• Stage 3: CBR decreases, while CDR continues to decrease. Economic changes cause people to have less offspring.

• Stage 4: CBR equals CDR….condition called Zero Population Growth (ZPG)

ALL COUNTRIES ARE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STAGE 2 & STAGE 4

Demographic Transition Example

ENGLAND

Death rates decreasedue to increase in foodproduction

Economic changes causepeople to have less kids

If CBR and CDR are equal in Stage 4, why would population still be increasing?

Population PyramidsPopulation in a country is influenced by the demographic transition in 2 ways: percentage of population in each age group and distribution of males and females

POP. PYRAMIDS-Age Distribution

a.) 0-14 (Dependent)b.)14-65 c.) 65+ (Dependent)

-Sex Ratio

Dependency Ratio : Number of dependents (too young or old to work) compared to number of people in productive yrs.

CAPEVERDE

CHILE

DENMARK

Will World Face an Overpopulation

Problem?

• Thomas Malthus on Overpopulation

- Malthus’s Theory

- Malthus Critics

• Declining Birth Rates

- Malthus Theory vs. Reality

- Reasons for Decline

• World Health Threats

- Epidemiological Transition Stages

Malthus’s Theory vs. Reality

Food & Population 1950-2000

-Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

-Malthus was fairly close on food production, but too pessimistic on population growth

-Although world as a whole may not be in danger of “running out” of food, some regions with rapid growth do face shortages of food

-Example: Eastern Africa grew by 2% economically per year since 1980, but population grew by 3% per year. Result = East Africa is worse today than 10, 20, 30 years ago

-Malthus did not account for decreasing CBR

Decline of CBR

-CBR has continued to decline over the past few decades-However, CDR continues to decline in the world as well – thus world population continues to increase

Reasons for Lower CBR

LDCs suffering from World Health

Threats