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  • 8/14/2019 Romania market report 2012

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    Accelerating success.

    ROMANIA

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

    2012

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    2012 | RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | ROMANIA

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Foreword 3

    Major Deals 4

    Executive Summary 6

    Economic Overview 7

    Office Market 8

    Retail Market 9

    Industrial Market 12

    Land Market 13

    Investment Overview 15

    Residential Market 16

    Hotel Market 18

    Key Metric Definitions 20

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    Dear Reader,

    The year 2011 was a mix of two totally different journeys, one full of hope, head straight

    up, during the joyful spring and another in a much slower pace, during the confusing and

    gloomy days of autumn.

    The debt crisis that extended throughout the second half of the year stalled the optimistic

    business plans started in Q1, and what seemed to be the return of the solid growth

    turned out to be the start of concerns regarding the real European economic crisis.

    Walking on thin ice, the real estate players have spent most of their time in 2011

    negotiating with banks, but even if their doors were open for discussion, the safedeposits were locked and the key thrown in the hands of the mother banks.

    In order to keep the wheel spinning, they adopted the team work business style and

    some shook hands with equity partners. They also fought hard for prelease

    contracts, but few managed to secure one. Food retailers were particularly active andaudacious in signing prelease agreements, since the retail figures outperformed those

    registered in 2010. In return, they got the best locations, prices and conditions ever seen

    on this market.

    While the few liquid players took advantage and secured very good deals, whetherrenting or buying, the indebt developers really struggled and some finally collapsedunder the pressure of banks. As a result, the number of bankrupt projects exceeded the

    previous year.

    It was survival of the fittest and this mood unfortunately cannot lead to win-win

    situations, but, on the contrary, it carries along a series of consequences.

    Thus, we witnessed aggressiveness during the early development stages : land

    owners, bank representatives, project developers, real estate agents and tenants, met

    for negotiations that eventually fell apart. Driven by the fear of not losing their protection

    against each other, the parties failed to align their business objectives.

    The circle of trust who governed the real estate market seems now to be broken. Due

    to egocentric attitudes and the race for individual advantages negotiations take too longand opportunities are missed. In the global turmoil context, it is no wonder that local

    disputes only worsen the business course.

    Since the European debt crisis continues and Greek default still threatens our region, weexpect a tough 2012 in terms of market conditions. IMF recently changed the GDP

    estimation for this year to 1.8%, so this means another year of slow activity, lack of

    liquidity and financing sources, hence potential losses.

    Therefore, once again we might find ourselves on the battlefield.

    I trust that in 2012 all parties active on the real estate market reconsider the values of thereal estate business and work together for building a sustainable market with

    fairness, trust and professionalism.

    What we need to do is to work out creative solutions to make projects happen since the

    traditional pillars are no longer available. We need to anticipate the needs of the nextgenerations in order to be competitive in rapidly changing times.

    I hope that through our research papers and our passion for knowledge and

    education, Colliers International continues to be the best source of information and

    analysis for you.

    I wish you a pleasant read and a thoughtful reflection on how we can turn the market

    around and be all winners.

    Sincerely yours,

    Ilinca PaunManaging Director

    Colliers International

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | FOREWORD

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    INDUSTRIAL

    EMAG, ASESOFT AND FLANCO14,000 M2 CONSOLIDATION

    Colliers was assigned by the three major IT&C players to identify the best solution to

    accommodate their joint activities, as part of a larger consolidation process.

    With an innovative approach, Colliers industrial team relocated them to a 14,000 sqm inEuropolis Logistic Park, structuring the deal to allow further expansions and a mixed use

    of office and warehouse

    OFFICE

    ING14,000 M2 CONSOLIDATION IN CRYSTAL TOWER

    Colliers International Office Agency team in Romania represented the tenant, ING Bank,

    in the process of setting their head-quarter in the Cristal Tower building located in

    Bucharests CBD. ING also leased 800 m of office space for a new branch in an

    adjacent building Metropolis.

    The deal is one of the largest office leasing deals in Romania in 2011 and it classifies

    Colliers Romanian Office Agency team as number 1 in terms

    of market share.

    RETAIL

    CORA LEASED 7,700 M2 IN CITY PARK CONSTANTA

    Colliers International mediated the transaction through which Cora leased a space of7,700 m2 in City Park Mall of Constanta, one of the major cities with over 300,000

    inhabitants in Romania. Apart from Cora, Colliers International managed to attract, over

    the past year, tenants like: LC Waikiki, Stefanel, Stonecreek, Mirano, Noriel, Animax etc.

    PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

    GE CAPITAL REAL ESTATE AND ALLIANZ TIRIAC50,600 M2

    After launching the Property Management division last year, Colliers Internationalsucceeded in winning two major clients, a medium sized office building developed by

    Allianz Tiriac and the two properties owned by GE Capital Real Estate in partnership with

    Helios Phoenix, in Timisoara and Brasov respectively. In this role, Colliers is responsible

    for tenant management, sourcing, controlling the operational budget, maintaining and

    improving the overall performance of the assets, as well as financial services and

    reporting to the landlord.

    LAND

    DEDEMAN 6 MLN. LAND ACQUISITION IN CONSTANTA

    The Romanian retailer Dedeman, the leader of the local DIY market, bought a 3,5 ha

    plot in the Northern part of Constanta, in one of the citysdominant retails schemes. The

    Land Division of Colliers mediated the sale transaction through which Dedeman secured

    the location for its second store in Constanta, planned for opening in 2012.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | MAJOR DEALS

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    RECENT TRENDS

    Economy: Last year, Romaniasstrong performance in industrial production, as wellas its solid export performance helped to recover the countrysGDP.

    Investment: 2011 investment figures reflected a mixed appetite for real estateinvestments. Following a dynamic H1 where a number of new deals were

    generated, the market slowed down at the end of H2 as investors took a waitand see

    approach as the European sovereign debt crisis unfolded.

    Industrial: The industrial market remained stable as only 10,000 m2 came on marketin Bucharest. Demand decreased by 10%, a level comparable with 2004sdemand

    figures.

    Offices: In continuation of the 2010 trend, an increasing number of companiesconsolidated their offices into a single property.

    Retail: The new supply in shopping centers was notable in terms of the size of projectsbut also significant in terms of the ability of the developers to bring projects online with

    high occupancy rates of over 70%. Food retailers remained one of the most active

    segments in the market, followed by large fashion retailers

    MARKET PROGNOSIS

    Economy:In the near term, the increased CDS spread is expected to be reflected indomestic interest rates which may hinder investment and consumption.

    Investment:We are expecting a widening of the price gap between sellers and buyersin the coming months with fewer deals initiated as a result.

    Industrial:The growth of the industrial market in 2012 will be similar to the previous

    year. Logistic operators will continue to be the most active players in terms of demand.

    Offices:As new and existing developers revitalise their optimism toward developing inthe Bucharest market, demand will continue to be driven by companies seeking to

    optimise their space.

    Retail:The number of preleasing deals in the best located shopping-centres (expectedopenings in 2013-2014) will carry on from the positive trend seen last year.

    MARKET INDICATORS

    2011* 2012*

    GDP GROWTH

    UNEMPLOYMENT

    WAGES

    INFLATION

    OFFICE RENTS

    INDUSTRIAL RENTS

    RETAIL RENTS

    YIELDS

    * COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    Executive Summary

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    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

    Source: CIA World Book

    Source: IMF

    SUMMARY

    Despite having a reputation as one of the Balkan bad boys, according to the latestIMF report published January 23rd, 2012, the Romanian government received praise

    for its monetary and fiscal discipline.

    The IMF also upgraded the countrysGDP performance for 2011 due to its strongagricultural output. 2012 GDP estimates were, however, revised downwards to reflect

    the externalities of the European crisis. While 2011 growth is expected to close at a

    growth rate of 2.0%, by the end of 2012 we will see a slight decrease in economic

    growth to 1.8%.

    Strong industrial production and exports has initiated a sustainable recovery inRomanias GDP. Favourable economic conditions, including lower unemployment

    rates, kick-started a recovery in domestic demand and revealed that the slump in retail

    sales has bottomed out. The dips in all three trends are supported by the external

    impact of austerity measures in the Eurozone and by extension, the EU as a whole.

    Romania currently has a Stand By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF for a total of3.4billion. While not all of the money has been disbursed, as Romania continues to meet

    IMF criteria, funds will be made available. Despite the risk of disruptive fallout from the

    Eurozone it is felt that Romania will be able to meet its fiscal target through continued

    discipline rather than new policies.

    Unfortunately despite this upturn in performance, the price of risk by association ofboth the EMU and EU periphery has meant that CDS spreads on Romanian debt have

    widened considerably. In the near term this is expected to be reflected in higher

    domestic interest rates which may hinder investment and consumption.

    Population 21,904,551

    Top Three Cities 2,563,313 11.7%

    Bucharest 1,942,254 8.9%

    Timisoara 311,428 1.4%

    Iasi 309,631 1.4%

    Economic Overview

    Economic Makeup GDP Labour

    Agriculture 12.2% 29.7%

    Industry 37.6% 23.2%

    Services 50.2% 47.1%

    Source: IMF

    Source: IMF

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    SUPPLY

    In 2011, the modern office stock of Bucharest reached approximately 1.5 million m2.114,000 m2 of office space was completed last year and delivered in both central

    locations and in the outskirts of the city.

    The pace of new office completions continued to slow down and is expected to bemuted in the coming years.

    DEMAND & VACANCY

    In 2011, market activity increased slightly, following the trend started in 2010. Net takeup reached 145,000 m2 out of the 175,000 m2 of total occupational market activity.

    Some of the tenants that renegotiated their contractual terms, also expanded the

    leased area. In fact, office space expansions represented 8% of total net take up.

    An increasing number of companies consolidated their operations into a singleproperty. For instance, three of the top ten financing institutions secured new, modern

    space. Companies who chose to consolidate were able to take advantage of landlords

    flexibility and current rental rate levels.

    The most active companies of the year were financial institutions, medical and IT&Csegments, which together represented half of the 145,000 m2 net take up.

    In terms of availability, 2011 is the first year since 2008 when office take up surpassednew supply. Therefore, the average vacancy rate dropped to 16.5%. Taking out the

    Pipera area, the vacancy rate will sit at 12.5%. Availability throughout the city varies by

    area. For example, districts such as Floreasca and Barbu Vacarescu benefit from an

    almost 0% vacancy rate.

    RENTS

    Overall, headline rent levels did not record any significant change in comparison torental rates in 2010. Although asking rents remained stable, the majority of landlords

    offered rent-free months and other financial incentives, and hence lower effective

    rents, especially in buildings with high-vacancy.

    PROGNOSIS

    For 2012 and 2013 combined, we estimate that another 170,000 m2 will becompleted, out of which 65,000 m2 is already pre-leased. In 2011, new and existing

    developers rekindled their optimism regarding the Bucharest market and are seizing

    the opportunity to build. Taking into consideration prudent tenants, new delivered

    buildings will have higher technical specifications and be better designed, in attemptsto address the needs of clients.

    Demand will continue to be driven by space optimization processes. Also, as leaseagreements come to an end tenants will have the opportunity to move into new office

    facilities. The lack of large spaces, above 3,000 m2 will lead to a comeback of pre-

    leased transactions. Therefore, take up will be of similar value or we might even

    expect a slight increase in demand.

    As the market matures, overall asking rents will be stable and may increase on theshort term in areas with low vacancy rates.

    In the last couple of years, local authorities initiated several infrastructureprojects, aiming to facilitate and improve the urban traffic situation and thereby

    enhancing access to several office areas, such us Dimitrie Pompeiu and Western

    Bucharest.

    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | OFFICE MARKET

    Key Office Figures

    Total Stock 1,474,000 m2

    Net take-up 145,000 m2

    Vacancy rate 16.5%

    Office Market

    CBD

    16- 20

    Floreasca

    1417

    Dimitrie Pompeiu1013

    Piata Presei

    16

    South

    12

    West

    0- 13

    Baneasa

    13- 16

    East

    1014

    ASKING RENT LEVELS

    Area Vacancy

    West 0%

    FloreascaBarbu Vacarescu 2%

    Charles de Gaulle 7%

    Dimitrie Pompeiu 8%

    Victoriei 10%

    Baneasa 18%

    East 39%

    Pipera 46%

    0

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    NEW SUPPLY & PIPELINE

    Contact: [email protected]

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    SUPPLY

    In2011 we witnessed a total supply of shopping centres developments similar to thelevel reached in 2009 and almost on par with the development levels recorded during

    the real estate boom. However, the main difference is that the proportion of foodretailers (in m2) taking up space is the largest since 2002, reaching almost 30% of the

    GLA.

    Although retail news in H1was quiet, H2 saw the total newsupply measure 180,000 m2

    of malls GLA, carried out in four new shopping centre projects and one extension.

    In addition to the size of new retail supply in the market, the percentage of space thatwas pre-leased was at its highest in comparison to previous years reaching over 70%

    for all retail projects.

    Apart from the 20,000 m2 extension of Baneasa Shopping City, all the other projectswere delivered in the countryside.

    DEMAND

    The food segment remained one of the most active retail segments in themarket, followed by the large fashion retailers led by Germanic operators expanding in

    the market.

    Retailers who had previously put their expansion plans on-hold got their plansunderway but the decision to expand has become a lengthier process as businesses

    are more cautious.

    Retail locations with the largest geographic appeal continued to be Bucharest as wellas large cities with inhabitants over 200,000 people.

    We also witnessed anchor tenants that opened shops in smaller cities (100,000 to150,000 inhabitants) in order to address a segment of demand not covered yet.

    There were several new retailers who entered the Romanian market in 2011, such asH&M, who in less than one year opened 11 shops and agreed on several new

    locations for 2012.

    RENTS

    Rents remained stable in the top performing shopping centres that had limitedvacancy.

    Different incentives such as free rent or fit-out contributions, as well as clauses thatsecured the success of the project like certain anchor tenants remained a market

    practice for existing centres. Incentives were also found in projects that were required

    to achieve a high occupancy rate at the time of opening.

    PROGNOSIS

    Currently there are 10 shopping centre projects under construction but the number ofprojects that undergo the leasing process is much higher. The quantity of pre-leases in

    well-located shopping centres (2013-2014 completions) will continue to increase this

    year.

    170,000 m2 GLA is expected to be delivered in 2012, but given the leasing andconstruction status, there could be discrepancies in the actual opening dates.

    The Romanian retail market performed well in 2011, and as a result there is interestamong new brands to enter the market in 2012.

    In terms of financial conditions we do not expect to witness significant changes.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | RETAIL MARKET

    Retail MarketShopping Centers

    Area (m2) Romania Bucharest Countryside

    ShoppingCenters

    Stock*

    1,305,000 467,000 838,000

    Shopping

    CentersNew

    Supply*

    176,000 20,000 156,000

    arting with 2012 Colliers has changed the methodology of calculating

    ail stock. The new calculation of shopping centers stock includes any

    mmercial scheme planned, built and managed as a single

    ty, comprising units with a minimum GLA of 5,000 m2.

    City Shopping Center Size(m2)

    Bucharest Baneasa Shopping City

    (extension) 20,000

    Constanta Maritimo

    Shopping Center 51,000

    Craiova Electroputere Parc 43,000

    Arad Galleria 32,000

    Oradea Oradea Shopping City 30,000

    he figures are based on the official declarations of the developers

    CityRent level *

    (/ m2/month)

    Bucharest 60-70

    Cities over 250,000

    inhabitants 30-35**

    Cities under 250,000

    inhabitants 15-20

    Brand No. of opened shops

    H&M 11

    New Look 4

    Calzedonia 3

    Eponge Fashion 13

    Wienerwald 3

    Contact: [email protected]

    NEW SUPPLY - 2011

    ese represent the highest rent levels that can be achieved in the well

    forming centers for units of 100 sq m, prime locations

    his level represents a market average; there are big differences

    ween cities based on the existing competition

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    SUPPLY

    The retail parks planned for H2 2011 were successfully opened, bringing another98,500 m2 GLA on the market.

    The big retail parks schemes planned to be secured by developers in 2011 werepostponed due to the complicated deal structures.

    Several stand alone units were secured by retailers in the food and DIY segments.

    Small retail schemes anchored by discount hypermarkets were developed continuingthe trend seen over previous years.

    DEMAND

    The main focus of hypermarkets was to secure the best locations in the top cities, atrend that will continue.

    Still, the focus of some retailers and developers grew also towards medium cities withlow modern stock of retail per capita.

    Kaufland and Dedeman were the most aggressive in terms of opening and securinglocations.

    Apart from the leasing market, retailers also played an important role on the buyingmarket. Succeshypermarket, a local brand, opened their first hypermarket units last

    year replacing PIC in two of their locations

    Lidl confirmed its aggressive expansion strategy with the first opening and therebranding of the former Plus stores.

    RENTS

    Rents remained stable for most big box segments. The evolution of rents for thegallery operators followed the same trend as the shopping centres

    Due to the high land prices we may witness structures of retail park transactions thatinvolve sale discussions of part of the boxes to end users.

    PROGNOSIS

    Due to economic situation and financing problems, risk minimization will be at theforefront of retail expansion plans.

    The limited number of good retail park plots at reasonable prices increasescompetition among retailers and developers in the good locations. Retailer sales are

    expected to remain at average levels in the short term, minimising the likelihood of

    higher rents.

    The smaller strip mall format anchored by discounters of all sizes will continue torepresent development opportunities for experienced landlords and developers.

    There is only one outlet modern shopping center in Bucharest and due to the lack ofnew brands entry to the market we believe that the existing scheme is sufficient for

    Romania in the years to come.

    The retail mix in big boxes will remain limited to hypermarkets and DIY operators as

    the market awaits new brands to complete the mix of the parks.

    Source: Colliers International

    REAL ESTATE REVIEW | 2011 | ROMANIA | RETAIL MARKET

    Retail MarketRetail Parks

    RetailBrand

    Parent Company Opened Units

    BauMaxx BauMaxx 1

    Bricostore Bresson 1

    Dedeman Dedeman 5

    Leroy Merlin Leroy Merlin 1

    BIG BOX OPENINGS - 2011

    DIY

    FOOD OPERATORS*

    RetailBrand

    Parent Company Opened Units

    Cora Delhaize 1+2**

    Kaufland Lidl&Schwarz 11

    Carrefour Carrefour Group 2

    Auchan MGV Distri-Hiper 2*

    Selgros REWE Group &

    Co. 1

    GALLERY EXTENSIONS - 2011

    Project Owner City

    European Park(extension) NEPI Braila

    Jupiter City Jupiter Pitesti

    RETAIL PARK OPENINGS - 2011

    Retail Park Area (m2) City

    Colosseum 37,500 Bucuresti

    Botosani

    Shopping

    Center

    15,000 Botosani

    Cora Drobeta 29,000 Drobeta Turnu

    Severin

    * Total size of the box over 5,000 m2

    ** Hypermarkets opened in shopping centers.

    Contact: [email protected]

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    SUPPLY

    During the last year, a number of family businesses have experienced problems andexited from their commercial leases. In addition, many major networks gave up the

    unprofitable units leading to slightly increased vacancy rates on high streets incomparison to vacancy rates in 2010.

    After the opening of H&M in H1, along with the previously opened New Yorker andZara stores on the ground floor of Unirii Shopping Centre, the new, non-traditional high

    street area expanded in the second half of 2011 with the openings of Stradivarius and

    Bershka.

    DEMAND

    In 2011, just like in the previous year, food operators (mini-markets, supermarkets, producers), were the most active segment for high street

    space.

    The development of the old centre continued as an entertainment area, generallybringing a mix of restaurants, clubs and coffee shops. Fashion retailers have

    expressed their interest in this area in 2011 but in the absence of an anchor tenant and

    the legal and structural issues of these buildings, there were no significant

    transactions. The Adidas store opening which took place in Q1 2011 was not followed

    by expansions from other international fashion operators.

    The requirements of luxury brands are still primarily directed to Calea Victoriei. VictoriaMen - the luxury multi-brand store was opened on the main luxury artery in 2011.

    Burberry has already secured a location which should be opened in H1 2012 and Max

    Mara will be relocated in a new location also on Calea Victoriei.

    The Commercial Gallery of Marriott Hotel increased its mix of luxury brands with theopening of a Valentino store.

    Calea Dorobantilor is increasingly becoming the preferred location for retailers, but dueto the lack of anchor tenants, similar to the situation in the old centre, it makes closing

    transactions difficult.

    Lack of shopping centre supply in medium sized cities coupled with the potentialdemand these cities represent, has forced some retailers to open on high street

    locations instead of in malls.

    RENTS

    Rents were constant in the central and high traffic areas, as demand for high streetlocations remained unchanged. The rest of Bucharest witnessed a slight decrease in

    rents of about 10%, similar with the situation in 2010.

    PROGNOSIS

    We estimate that the supply of retail space in the Old City Centre will increase boththrough consolidation and redevelopment of older buildings and through new

    construction of existing plots or instead of demolishing buildings.

    A higher percentage of classic shopping centre retailers will turn their attention towardsretail spaces on high streets in medium sized cities, once the first fashion anchor

    arrives in the area.

    Restructuring and consolidation of large commercial networks will continue in 2012.Also, most contracts signed in 2007 will expire this year, which will provide the basis

    for a new wave of renegotiations and relocations.

    The luxury segment could witness several new entrants from the brands that havebeen looking at the market for the past few years.

    Source: Colliers International

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | RETAIL MARKET

    Retail MarketHigh street

    Area Vacancy

    Centre 6%

    Semi-centre 12%

    Periphery 15%

    AreaRent level

    (/ m2/month)*

    Centre 50-75

    Semi-centre 20-35

    Periphery 7-25

    VACANCY LEVELS

    RENTS BUCHAREST

    CityRent level

    (/ m2/month)*

    Large 25-40

    Medium 20-30

    Small 10-15

    RENTS COUNTRYSIDE

    * 100 m2 locations

    * 100 m2, central locations

    Contact: [email protected]

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    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    SUPPLY

    During 2011, the industrial market was characterized by stability as only 10,000 m 2

    was delivered in Bucharest, in a build-to suit facility. Thus, at the end of 2011, the

    industrial and logistic stock measured 922,000 m2 .

    In the countryside, the modern stock increased by 95,000 m2 in both build-to-suitfacilities and speculative developments. Most developers started their projects only for

    specific tenants so the majority of new industrial space outside Bucharest was built-to-

    suit. A few projects started on a speculative basis including in Timisoara and Ploiesti.

    DEMAND & VACANCY

    In 2011, demand reached 104,000 m2 in Bucharest, out of which one third representedrenewals and renegotiations.

    Compared to 2010, demand for industrial and logistics space decreased by 10%. Thistake-up level was comparable to 2004 levels. Out of the total demand, half was driven

    by logistic operators.

    When selecting space, tenants had a propensity to seek out space that combined amix of quality and an appropriate rental rate as opposed to being purely driven by

    price.

    Similar to previous years, most demand was located in the Western outskirts ofBucharest. Demand also came from existing tenants that either relocated or extended

    their space.

    Outside Bucharest, over 50,000 m2 was leased and another 22,000 m2 was extended.Out of the total activity, the automotive sector was most active in both new demand

    and renegotiations.

    2011 was the first year when important companies relocated outside of Romania and itis anticipated that the vacant space left behind will soon be occupied.

    The vacancy rate for industrial space did not change in 2011.

    RENTS

    In Bucharest, rental levels have remained stable, maintaining the same values overthe past 12 months.

    PROGNOSIS

    As insecurity still looms over the economic circumstances in the EuropeanUnion, industrial market trends will not vary in 2012 from the previous year.

    While Bucharest remains the most important logistic hub in Romania, in terms ofproduction and manufacturing, cities such as

    Cluj, Timisoara, Oradea, Craiova, Pitesti, Brasov, will continue to attract new tenants.

    Similar to 2011, logistic operators will be the most active players in terms of demand.Also, we expect that some of the outsourcing agreements will expire and hence we

    might see companies change their logistic operator.

    As lease agreements approach their expiration date, landlords will work to maintaintheir current tenants.

    Land transactions for industrial use will be limited as most of the large developers inthe market already have additional land capacity for further developments.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | INDUSTRIAL MARKET

    Key Figures

    Total Stock 922,000 m2

    Take-up 76,000 m2

    Vacancy 15%

    Prime Headline Rent 4.2 m2/month

    Industrial Market

    AREA (m2) RENT

    (/ m2) FORECAST

    < 3,000 44.5 Stable

    3,00010,000 3.754.2 Stable>10,000 3.54 stable

    Contact: [email protected]

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTIC SPACEDEMAND

    DEMAND & DELIVERIES IN THECOUNTRYSIDE

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    With the prospect of better economic conditions and more attractive prices, 2011started as a year with increased investor appetite for land plot acquisition. However, a

    good beginning is only half the battle as towards the end of the year, macroeconomic

    turmoil generated by the sovereign debt crisis and euro zone worries slowed down the

    investors pace, who became extremely cautious when making the purchasing

    decision.

    Nonetheless, numerous transactions were finalized during the past year (mostly forretail lands) and several others (for both retail and office land) have advanced to final

    stage, their conclusion depending on building permit approvals.

    We estimate that the total transaction volume on the land market in 2011 wascomparable to that registered in 2010, even though the number of deals was greater.

    2010 comprised several big transactions amounting over30 million, that were not

    repeated in 2011.

    SUPPLY

    A significant number of the developers that undertook aggressive land acquisitioncampaigns between 2005 and 2008 and did not succeed in completing projects while

    the markets were in boom, tried to exit Romania and sell their portfolios. Companies in

    this situation were mostly of Spanish, Israeli or Greek origin and their portfolios

    consisted mainly of land plots for residential development only.

    Vendors that did not want to sell their assets at a loss found themselves in thesituation of either holding the land plots while expecting a future market recovery, or

    finding alternatives like joint-venture partnerships for possible developments.

    Overall the supply of distressed properties remained rather low. Most of the highlydiscounted land plots were either plots situated at the periphery, or properties suitable

    for residential use only.

    DEMAND

    In Bucharest, the structure of demand seems to have emerged during the last twoyears and we have observed a segregation of three different layers:

    1. Big box retailers/developers continue to be the main players on the market, insearch of consolidating their position and their future strategic locations. The highest

    interest was shown for semi-central areas, within high-density population

    neighborhoods, excellent infrastructure, accessibility and visibility. We noticed a new

    trend on the market, that traditional residential or office developers and investors saw

    the increased potential of the retail sector and reshaped their strategies accordingly.

    2. Office developers This segment targeted very well located land plots inBucharest, in established office areas, with developed infrastructure and proximity to

    subway stations. They also pay close attention to the advanced status of the permitting

    process, which allows them to start construction, market and deliver the project ahead

    of the competition.

    3. Residential investorsThis category was the least active of all and interest wasexpected mostly in partnerships. By acting this way, investors tried not to block liquidity

    in land plots and projects that were still difficult to sell in the current market. These

    investors target almost exclusively Prima Casasmall scale developments (below 100

    apartment units), and look for land plots within a price range lower than 100-120 /m2

    of built area.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | LAND MARKET

    Land Market

    Source: Colliers International

    For 2012, we expect amoderate evolution and

    an activity volume

    comparable to the

    previous year

    City Area Value Buyer

    BucurestiCalea Plevnei 2 ha 11 M* Interprime

    Bucuresti

    Sf. Voievozi &Popa Petre

    2,400m2

    2.2 M PrivateInvestors

    Bucuresti

    Drumul Taberei &

    Giulesti

    2.7 &

    1.5 ha20 M* Auchan

    Constanta 3.5 ha 6 M Dedeman

    Bacau 1.9 ha 4.5 M Retail

    Developer

    Bistrita 2 ha 2 M Dedeman

    *Market estimation; no official information made

    public

    REPRESENTATIVE LANDTRANSACTIONS - 2011

    Contact: [email protected]

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    In addition to the above, a timid demand came from two other segments that continuedto expand in 2011: medical and hotel sectors.

    One of the problems that slowed down transactions in 2011 (besides the increasedtime frame caused by the authorization process), was the uncertainty of the legalownership of some of the properties, as well as the events and rumors present in the

    economic environment, that at times resulted in the revision of already discussed

    conditions and agreements.

    PRICES

    Prices moved slowly compared to 2010, registering a decrease within the range of 5%to 15%, on average.

    In some areas in Bucharest where interest proved to be high, we estimate that theprices reached their minimum, except for some specific cases. These categories take

    into account areas like Charles de Gaulle, Aviatorilor, Aviatiei, Barbu Vacarescu or

    Calea Plevnei.

    Peripheral locations as well as those areas with limited development potential (lack orpoor infrastructure, residential use only) continued to experience decreasing prices, up

    to 35 - 40% compared to 2010.

    FORECAST

    For 2012, we expect a moderate evolution and a similar volume of activity as in therecently closed year, since investors show a reserved approach, in many cases

    resulting in the renegotiation of land prices.

    In this context, we expect average prices to continue on a downward trend, except for

    those highly targeted areas which are perceived as having good development potentialon the short and medium term.

    Property financing remains a crucial element to the market and we are unlikely to seean increase in demand for land until financing becomes readily available and demand

    for future developments picks up.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | LAND MARKET

    Land Market

    BUCHAREST AREAS WITH LANDPLOTS TRANSACTIONS - 2011

    COUNTRYSIDE CITIES WITH LANDPLOTS TRANSACTIONS - 2011

    Contact: [email protected]

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    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    2011 investment figures reflected a mixed appetite for real estate investments.Following a dynamic H1 where a number of new deals were generated, the market

    slowed down at the end of H2, as investors took a waitand seeapproach as the

    European sovereign debt crisis unfolded.

    TRANSACTIONS

    In terms of closures, the year was mostly dominated by small sized transactions, ofunder20 million. This is a consequence of the low activity of Western investment

    funds (either private equity or institutional) in 2010. Therefore, the most active players

    in 2011 were the Greek Fund Bluehouse and private investors like Augustin Oancea

    and Ioannis Papalekas. The overall volume of transactions amounted to around 150

    million, of which only45 million were from classic investment deals.

    Apart from the three classic investment transactions closed in H1 2011: PraktikerCraiova, Astoria Center office building in Romana Square and Loius Blanc office

    building in Victoriei Square, the market saw two distressed sales of shopping center

    projects, namely City Mall in Bucharest and Macromall in Brasov.

    The most notable transaction of the second half of the year was the joint venturepartnership between the Canadian developer CD Capital, represented by Colliers and

    the South African Fund NEPI, for the development of Victoria City Shopping Center in

    Bucurestii Noi area. NEPI came in as a 50% partner and will lead the development of

    the 56,000 m2 shopping center. This is the first Bucharest shopping center joint

    venture transaction to be closed on the market since the inception of the crisis and

    marks a growing trend among investors and developers who are not finding suitable

    existing projects or available land plots and are thus drawn to joint ventures that

    ensure good locations, good potential returns and a reduction of risk.

    The lack of good existing opportunities on the market has also led investors who were

    initially focusing on acquisitions to reorient their strategy towards development. NEPI isone prominent example - after the acquisition of European Retail Park Braila and Iris

    Pitesti retail parks they are now developing their own retail projects in Ploiesti and

    Brasov next to Carrefour hypermarkets.

    INVESTORS AND DEAL PIPELINE

    In H1 2011, in the context of the feeble but nonetheless positive economic growth ofthe country, and the result of Floreasca 169A transaction (at an 8% yield), the market

    saw a slight yield compression. This brought the expectations of the sellers and the

    interested investment funds closer and sparked a heightened level of activity in terms

    of offers, negotiations and potential deals during this period. The main target of the

    investors remained class A office buildings in prime locations in Bucharest, followed by

    retail big boxes with good quality tenants and long term contracts.

    The worsening of the European economic environment coupled with the tightening ofthe financing markets led to a more cautious approach from investors, which reduced

    drastically their activity towards year end. Moreover, a number of ongoing deals that

    were generated in the first half of the year were stalled or even fell through.

    Nonetheless, the deal pipeline still remains strong, the volume of transactions in due

    diligence or advanced negotiation stages amounting to150 -200 million.

    YIELDS

    Whereas the first half of the year brought a yield compression trend for prime officebuildings to slightly below 8%, the trend was reversed towards the end of the year. The

    main cause of this development was the tightening of financing conditions. Withlending scarce and expensive, investment funds have to be more reserved with the

    yields in order to reach their return targets.

    We expect to see a widening of the price gap between sellers and buyers in thecoming months and fewer deals initiated as a result.

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | INVESTMENT MARKET

    Investment MarketKey Figures

    Investment Turnover 150 m

    Prime Office Yields 8%

    Prime Retail Yields 8.5 - 8.75%

    Prime Industrial Yields 10%

    Property Seller Buyer Price

    ( mln.)

    Praktiker

    Craiova Omilos Bluehouse 10

    Astoria

    Center

    Nicholas

    Abaco

    Bluehouse 10

    Louis Blanc Cefin

    Augustin

    Constantin

    Oancea

    6

    City Mall Insolvency

    company

    Ioannis

    Papalekas 17.3

    MacroMall Carpathian Local

    business man 1

    CLASSIC INVESTMENT DEALS

    Property Type Seller Buyer

    Victoria City Joint

    Venture CD Capital NEPI

    Adama

    Company

    Intra-

    group Adama Immofinanz

    Raiffeisen

    Tower

    Intra-

    group

    Raiffeisen

    Evolution

    Raiffeisen

    Property

    Intl.

    Iris PitestiShopping

    Gallery

    exercisedexisting

    option

    Avrig 3-5 NEPI

    OTHER TRANSACTIONS

    Contact: [email protected]

    0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%

    H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Office Industrial Retail

    EVOLUTION OF YIELDS

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    The first half of 2008 saw the Romanian residential market at its t peak. Prices per builtsquare meter soared reaching an historical average high of1,630 and demand

    accounted for around 60% of the announced stock. The aftermath of the international

    financial crisis was felt by all real estate segments, bringing the accelerated rhythm ofgrowth of the local market to a complete standstill.

    The first year of Romanian economic recovery saw the residential market in aprecarious position. Even though prices stabilized at an average of1,000 built

    m2, and sales volumes were relatively constant over the last 36 months (2-3

    apartments per month per project) consumer confidence still remained low. Investors

    have slowly returned to the market, although transactions continue to be few and far

    between.

    Not surprisingly, for the third consecutive year since the economic crisis, the mostactive segment of the market has been the one consisting of projects targeting the low

    income population.

    SUPPLY

    Before 2005 one could hardly talk about a new apartment market in Romania. Mostnew housing facilities were small scale developments located in traditional luxury

    areas designated for expats that occupied executive positions in Romanian HQ.

    Between 2005 and 2008 the market heated up and developers confidently announcedthe delivery of more than 35,000 units over the following years. However, by the end of

    2008 the market conditions had changed for the worse. Most investors started pulling

    out and many end users could not follow through with their promissory agreements.

    The lack of interested buyers made developers postpone their projects or slow down

    the delivery rate of secondary phases. Currently, only 44% of the announced units

    have been completed.

    Of the current stock of 15,700 apartments in compounds with more than 200units, 64% were delivered in the first two post crisis years. 2011 saw a significantly

    reduced number of deliveries in similar projects (only 16% out of the average of the

    previous two years).

    In the last three years the market also received a number of smallerprojects, addressing the low income population, located mainly on the outskirts of the

    traditional residential neighbourhoods. These developers have adapted to the new

    conditions of the residential sector and have renounced the generous

    surfaces, luxurious finishes and central locations, for small affordable units with prices

    similar to those of old apartments.

    DEMAND

    Demand followed the upward trend of the local economy with virtually few to notransactions before 2005, followed by an average of 25-30 units per project per month

    in the peak years. However these rates are a characteristic of emerging markets and

    are not sustainable in a mature, stable economic environment. Over the last three

    years the market has averaged around 2-3 apartment sales per project per month. The

    most dynamic sector of the residential market has been that targeting the low income

    buyers with 4-6 units/project/month.

    An important factor in the apartment acquisition process is access to financing. Thetransactional blockage of 2008 and the first half of 2009 reshaped the mortgage

    market when banks imposed more restrictive standards for their clients.

    Nevertheless, in order to encourage the local real estate segment, the RomanianGovernment reduced VAT to 5% for properties under RON 380,000 and put in

    place, in the second half of 2009 a special scheme for First Time Buyers. (Prima Casa)

    Source: Colliers International

    Source: FNGCIMM

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW

    Key Residential Figures

    New units stock* 15,700

    Available units* 3,800

    Sold Units 2-3 / project / month

    Average Price 1,000 /m2

    Residential Market

    Source: Colliers International

    * In projects with more than 200 units

    1600

    3386

    8134

    4819

    19000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    SUPPLY VS. EXPECTED SUPPLY

    Deliveries Expected Deliveries

    Over the last three years

    the market has averaged

    apartment sales per

    project per month

    2-3

    30%

    7%

    6%

    6%4%4%5%

    38%

    PRIMA CASA DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY

    Bucuresti Cluj Ilfov Timis

    Constanta Iasi Brasov Other

    Contact: [email protected]

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    Access to cheap financing enabled clients to benefit from the state guaranteedloan, 5% equity and the maximum interest margin imposed by the government.

    Already at itsfourth edition, the Prima Casaprogramme accounts for 2.1 billion

    granted for 52,740 units.

    Nevertheless the gap between developers expectations and end users actualpurchasing power continues to be wide, despite significant drops in prices (40% on

    average). With an average of 40.2 real estate transactions per 1,000 inhabitants, (third

    highest in the EU), Romanians were more willing to buy the communist cheaper

    apartments rather than new units. Only 25% of the granted loans through Prima Casa

    were destined for new residential units, the remaining buyers securing apartments in

    old blocks of flats.

    Residential investors were more active on the market than in previous years. Asprojects went into default, they were able to buy apartment packages at preferential

    prices. However, actual transactions were difficult to come by.

    PRICES

    Between 2005 and 2008, the market, encouraged by the high demand and accessiblefinancing conditions, registered an asking price growth of 15% YOY. In the two years

    of economic recession, prices had a steep drop of around 20% per year, followed by a

    milder decrease of only 10% in 2011.

    The asking price per built m2 reached an average of1,000 (VAT not included) at theend of the year.

    FORECAST

    2012 is expected to have a similar growth pattern to that of the previous year. Despitethe positive local economic outlook, the recent European public debt crisis has made

    both investors and developers sceptical about the recovery pace of the Romanian real

    estate segment.

    Demand will be directly dependent on financing conditions. As of January 31st

    2012, the National Bank of Romania has imposed 25% equity criterion for euro

    contracted mortgages and a 15% down payment for those granted in RON. The Prima

    Casa programme will be in place in 2012 and is exempt from this new regulation. As it

    was the case in the previous semesters, demand from end users will most likely be

    focused on Low income projects and sales will remain at current levels.

    It is improbable for prices to register any significant fluctuations in the next few months.

    The difficult financing conditions will avert both buyers and developers from makingdecisions in the next period. An upward trend is expected as the current stock is

    absorbed and end users and financial institutions regain their confidence in the local

    economy.

    Source: Colliers International

    Source: Colliers International

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW

    Residential Market

    1150

    1630

    1005

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    H2

    05

    H2

    06

    H1

    07

    H2

    07

    H1

    08

    H2

    08

    H1

    09

    H2

    09

    H1

    10

    H2

    10

    H1

    11

    H2

    11

    PRICE VARIATION

    Source: Colliers International

    1,3001,072

    1,000

    700

    200

    700

    2009 2010 2011

    PRICES BY PROJECT TYPE

    low middle

    upper middle market average

    Asking price forresidential units

    H1 2011 H2 2011

    Low projects 910 /m2 875 /m2

    Middle projects 1,172 /m2 1,150 /m2

    Upper middle

    projects 1,500 /m2 1,450 /m2

    Average Price 1,050 /m2 1,000 /m2

    Contact: [email protected]

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    SUPPLY

    The number of hotels increased in Romania in 2011 by 6.1% to 1,308 properties.Three star properties grew 34.2% while two and one star properties had a negative

    growth (-9.7%, respectively -47.0%). Growth also varied by location such that thehighest increase in the number of hotels occurred in secondary cities (24.3%) while the

    number of hotels at the seaside registered a decrease of -19.4%.

    The presence of international hotel chains is still limited. Only 7.8% of the roominventory affiliated to a hotel chain is international. International chains are

    concentrated in Bucharest (4,173 rooms out of 10,573). The main hotel groups

    present in Romania are Wyndham Hotel Group (1,681 rooms), Accor (1,221 rooms)

    and Best Western (1,072).

    In 2011, 75 hotels opened mainly through the renovation of existing hotels (HotelGrandTargu Mures, Hotel Sportul- Poiana Brasov, Hotel Roman- Roman) but also

    new built (Ramada Pitesti- Pitesti, Grand Hotel Italia- Cluj Napoca, Hotel Metropolis-

    Bistrita) and conversions (TulipInn Nerva Traian to DoubleTree Unirii).

    DEMAND

    After low levels of demand in 2010, 2011 marked a strong revival in tourist arrivals(15.5%), both in domestic arrivals (16.4%) and international arrivals (12.5%).

    Overnights increased also but at a slower pace (11.3%), which led to a decrease in

    average stay to 2.55 days (-4%).

    The highest increase in tourist arrivals was registered in balneal resorts (+18%) andsecondary cities (+16%) out of which Craiova (+38%), Cluj (27%), Galati (+25) and

    Arad(+19%) registered highest increase .

    The main feeder market is from the European Union (59.4%), specifically fromcountries such as Hungary (23.1%), Bulgaria (10.5%), Germany (5.3%), Italy (4.4%)

    and Turkey (3.5%).

    BUCHAREST MARKET

    The number of hotels remained constant (131 properties) but room inventorydecreased (-7.3%) mainly due to a change in size of one large property (Rin Grand

    Hotel from 1,450 to 580 rooms). This change occurred as part of a transformation

    process in which some of the rooms became residential units.

    For the second year in row, Bucharest registered an increase in tourist arrivals(14.3%), reaching two million overnight visitors, which is a level similar to 2008.

    Occupancy posted an increase of 11.4% compared to 2010, reaching 56.5%. Thisincrease was not even across all categories, the highest increase was for 4 star hotels(17%) while the lowest increase was for 5 star hotels (7.4%). As the market is based

    on business travel, occupancy varies very much by season, with low numbers in

    January and August (35% to 40%) and high numbers in May June, October and

    November (65% to 70%).

    For the first time after 2 years, the average nightly rate also went up, with a 4.4%increase to 65.5 per night. The highest increase was for 3 star hotels (6.7%) and

    lowest increase was for 5 star hotels (3.2%).

    TRANSACTIONS

    Altogether, there were approximately 350 properties for sale which represented adecrease of 40.0% compared to the previous year.

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW

    Key Figures

    Number of hotels 1,308 (6.1%)

    Number of beds 174,750 (-5.6%)

    Tourist arrivals 7,014,000 (15.5%)

    Hotel Market

    HOTELS BY DESTINATION

    Balneo

    Resorts, 11

    .5%

    Seaside, 21

    .7%

    Mountains,

    12.2%

    Danube

    Delta, 1.4%

    Bucharest,

    11.1%

    ondaryes, 24.8

    %

    Other

    17.2%

    HOTELS BY CATEGORY

    5

    stars, 1.8% 4stars, 14.8

    %

    3

    stars, 45.9

    %

    2

    ars, 30.7

    %

    1

    star, 6.1%

    TOURIST ARRIVAL

    12.1%

    4.4%

    -14.0%

    -2.9%

    16.4%

    12.4%

    -5.5%

    -13.0%

    5.5%

    12.5%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f

    Domestic International

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    Contact: [email protected]

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    The average price asked per room varied according to location, and category: a hotelroom in Bucharest had an average asking price of141,000/room, for a secondary city

    hotel it was 130,000/room and for a leisure hotel (mountains and seaside) it cost

    83,200/room.

    The volume of transactions reached 35 million, three times more than last year. Themost important transactions included the acquisition of 30.0% of Continental Hotels by

    GED Capital for an estimated amount of18 million and the acquisition of 16.2% of

    Intercontinental Bucharest by Astra Asigurari for4.1 million.

    Buyers are mainly companies or investment funds that are looking to consolidate theirpresence on the local market, like GED Capital or Astra Asigurari, or individual

    business people with available money that are looking to acquire good assets at

    discounted prices, like Hotel Scandinavia in Mamaia or Hotel Moldova in Bacau.

    Also, some properties were liquidated by creditors, and sold mainly to local investorsfor low prices, like Hotel Alutus in Ramnicu Valcea or Hotel Parc in Oradea.

    PROGNOSIS

    Not many projects were launched in the last few years, and with few openingsannounced for 2012 (around 20), any increase in supply will remain marginal.

    Turnaround projects are also likely to appear as office or residential projects will look

    for a different use.

    The presence of international brands in the Romanian market is expected toincrease, as affiliation will be seen as a good way to increase competitiveness and

    market share. Hilton Worldwide and Wyndham Hotel Group are expected to increase

    their presence, especially through their mid and economy level brands such as

    DoubleTree, Hilton Garden Inn and Hampton, Ramada and Days Hotels.

    Generally, demand follows the same line as GDP (estimated at 1.8%, in 2012) and

    airport passenger movements (estimated at 8%), therefore we have reasons to believethat demand also will increase in 2012.

    Better management of European funds and increased investments in tourism andinfrastructure will help increase the attractiveness of some destinations, especially in

    leisure and resort areas.

    A strategic marketing plan for Romania, for 2011 to 2015, was launched by creating acountry brand, the broadcasting of TV spots on dedicated international channels

    (Eurosport, CNN, Euronews), and the participation in major European travel and

    tourism fairs and exhibitions (London, Berlin, Madrid). We think that this strategy will

    start to show some results and will continue to promote Romania as a travel

    destination.

    Hotel activity will continue its positive trend as tourist arrivals are expected to rise byapproximately 5% to 6%. Rates will follow the same trend and will continue trending

    upward, but at a much slower pace, with an estimated increase of 2% to 3%.

    A new wave of properties will be available for sale, as owners realize that prices willnot get any higher then current levels and lenders look to liquidate some of their

    assets.

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA | HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW

    Hotel Market

    OCCUPANCY, BUCHAREST

    AVERAGE RATE, BUCHAREST

    TRANSACTION VOLUME

    Source: Trend Hospitality

    MAIN FEEDER MARKETS

    0%

    0%

    0%

    0%

    0%

    0%

    0%

    0%

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    8090

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Millions

    # CountryNights(thousands)

    1 Hungary 1,735

    2 Bulgaria 784

    3 Germany 395

    4 Italy 331

    5 Turkey 265

    Contact: [email protected]

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    The information contained herein has been obtained from

    sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort

    has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannotguarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any

    inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their

    professional advisors prior to acting on any of the

    material contained in this report.

    COLLIERS RESEARCH

    Colliers Research Services Group is recognized as a knowledge leader in the

    commercial real estate industry, providing clients with valuable market intelligence to

    support business decisions. Colliers research analysts provide multi-level support across

    all property types, ranging from data collection to comprehensive market analysis.

    Across the CEE-SEE-Russia region of EMEA, Colliers researchers regularly collect and

    update data on key real estate metrics, set to consistent definitions. This information is

    constantly managed using databases, enabling staff to readily produce analysis on key

    regional markets including supply, demand, absorption, pricing and transaction data on

    capital markets and the office, industrial and retail sector. In most CEE-SEE-Russian

    markets, the office definitions used are consistent with those set out by the CEE

    Research Forum an umbrella group, of which Colliers is a founding member -

    established to ensure consistent research methodologies are used, bringing greater

    transparency and reliability to the analysis of real estate markets in the region.

    Definitions of the key metrics used in our regular reports are highlighted below.

    KEY METRIC DEFINITIONS

    Prime Headline Capital Value (derived):This is a calculation of market value derivedfrom the annual prime headline rent divided by the prime (net initial) yield.

    Prime Net Initial Yield: The yield an investor is prepared to pay to buy a Grade Abuilding, fully-let to high quality tenants at an open market rental value in a prime

    location. Lease terms should be commensurate with the market. As a calculation Net

    initial yield = First yearsnet income/purchase price (prior to deducting fees and taxes)

    Prime Headline Rent: Represents the top open-market tier of rent that could beexpected for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, of the highest quality

    and specification in the best location in the market at the survey date. This should

    reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed at the time but

    need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or

    made up of unusual one-off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during thesurvey period, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of

    market conditions, but the same criteria on building size and specification will apply.

    Prime Net Effective Rent:Prime Net Effective Rent is the lowest rent payable, basedon a calculation of the Prime Headline Rent, less the monetary equivalent of the

    highest of either the rent-free period or fit-out contribution available at the time of the

    survey date.

    Average Headline Rent:Average Headline Rent represents the average open-markettier of rent that could be expected for a unit of standard size commensurate with

    demand, based on a blend of Grade A & B space across a range of locations in the

    market at the survey date.

    Total Competitive Stock:Includes the gross leasable floorspace in all A and B classbuildings.

    Space Under Active Construction:Represents the total amount of gross leasablefloorspace of properties where construction has commenced on a new development or

    in existing properties where a major refurbishment/renovation is ongoing at the survey

    date.

    Space Under Construction Inactive: Represents the total amount of grossleasable floorspace of properties where construction had started/where a major

    refurbishment/renovation was ongoing, but activity has since stopped for a period of 3

    months or longer.

    Vacant Space:The total gross leasable floorspace in existing properties that meet theCompetitive Stock definition, which is physically vacant and being actively marketed at

    the survey date. Space should be available for immediate occupation.

    512 offices in61 countries on6 continents

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    EMEA: 117

    $1.5 billion in annual revenue

    978.6 million square feet under

    management

    Over 12,500 professionals

    ROMANIA:

    Colliers International

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    Building A, 7th floor

    Bucharest 1, 014459

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    RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | 2012 | ROMANIA

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