ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX OF PAKISTAN

IAEA Technical Meeting Role and Sustainability of Nuclear Power in the National Energy Mix, Including the Long Term Operation of NPPs Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Muhammad Saleemullah, Applied Systems Analysis Division, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

June 21-23, 2016

Contents

Some basic facts Current status Energy situation Electricity situation Nuclear power

Peak demand forecast Energy sources for power generation Comparison of alternate options Concluding remarks

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Pakistan: Basic Facts June 2016

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world having about 194 million population (Urban share: 39%)

Population growth : 1.9% per year GDP : 226,270 Million US dollar

GDP growth : 4.7% per year Per capita income : 1,560 US dollar Total primary energy supply: 66.9 MTOE (2014)

Per capita energy supply : 0.36 TOE (2014) Electricity generation : 109,246 GWh (2015) Per capita electricity consumption: 447 kWh (2015)

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Installed Capacity June 2015

Sources: State of Industry Report 2015, NEPRA

Total: 25,041 MW

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Electricity Generation Mix 2015

Source: State of Industry Report 2015, NEPRA

Total: 109.2 TWh

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Govt of Pakistan

Ministry of Water and Power

WAPDA

Mega Dams

Water Projects

PEPCO

GENCOs

NTDC/ CPPA

DISCOs

Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

Nuclear Power Plants

Provinces

Provincial Power Sector Entities

Private Sector

SPPs/ CPPs

K-Electric

IPPs

Renewable Projects

Pakistan Power Sector Players

NEPRA

AEDB PPIB

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Nuclear Power (Operational)

KANUPP CHASNUPP-1 CHASNUPP-2

Contractor CGE (Canada) CNNC (China) CNNC (China)

Capacity (Gross) 137/100 MW 325 MW 325 MW

Start of Construction Aug 1966 Aug 1993 Dec 2005

Commercial Operation Dec 1972 Sep 2000 May 2011

Life Time Availability Factor (Since COD to 31 Mar 2016)

56.2% 77.3% 85.1%

Life Time Capacity Factor (Since COD to 31 Mar 2016)

30.7% 74.0% 81.8%

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Comparative Performance of Operational Power Plants in Pakistan

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Cost per kWh from Nuclear compared with other sectors

Data from NEPRA Report 2015 and NTDC Power System Statistics 2015

Average Cost of CHASNUPP-1/ CHASNUPP-2 to NTDC (Rs. 7.09/kWh)

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Recent Tariffs Determined by the Regulator – NEPRA (2015 - 2016)

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Source: Based on Tariff Determination/Decisions of NEPRA

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Nuclear Power (Under Construction)

CHASNUPP-3 CHASNUPP-4 K-2

Size (Gross) 340 MW 340 MW 1100 MW

Contractor CNNC (China) CNNC (China) CNNC (China)

Contract Signing 20 Nov 2008 20 Nov 2008 18 Feb 2013

Contract Effective Date 31 Mar 2010 31 Mar 2010 28 Feb 2014

Groundbreaking 5 Aug 2010 1 Apr 2011 26 Nov 2013

First Concrete Pouring 4 Mar 2011 18 Dec 2011 20 Aug 2015

IAEA Safeguards Approval 8 Mar 2011 8 Mar 2011 -

Commercial Operation (Planned)

Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Jul 2020

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* Construction work on K-3, 1100 MW NPP, will start soon

Power Generation Plan of Pakistan (MW)

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Nuclear Hydel Coal Renewable Oil Gas Total

2005* 462 6,460 160 180 12,340 19,600

2015* 755 7,116 150 356 16,814 25,041

Additions

2010 - 1,260 900 700 160 4,860 7,880

2015 900 7,570 3,000 800 300 7,550 20,120

2020 1,500 4,700 4,200 1,470 300 12,560 24,730

2025 2,000 5,600 5,400 2,700 300 22,490 38,490

2030 4,000 7,070 6,250 3,850 300 30,360 51,830

Total 8,800 32,660 19,910 9,700 7,760 83,760 16,2590

* Actual. Source: i) Medium Term Development Framework 2005-2010, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, May 2005. ii) State of Industry Report 2012, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority.

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Scenario Average Annual Economic Growth

2014-40

Peak Demand on National Grid (MW)

2029-30 2034-35 2039-40

Base 5.0% 62,289 79,958 102,591

High 6.5% 75,808 102,338 138,664

(MW)

Source: Project for Least Cost Power Generation and Transmission Expansion Plan, Draft Report, NTCF, October 2015

Projected Electricity Demand in Pakistan (A Study by NTDC in 2015)

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Energy Resources for Power Generation

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If whole resource is used for power generation

Fuel Unit

Proven reserves

Quantity For 1000 MW size plants of

30-year life

Oil Million Barrels 371 1

Gas Trillion Cubic Feet 24 15

Coal Billion Tonnes 8* 54

* Total resource is about 186 billion tonnes (~ 1746 plants of 1000 MW of 30 year life).

Hydro:

Potential : 60,000 MW

Already exploited : 7,1166 MW (12% of the potential)

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Fossil Fuel Resources

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Oil

Small Reserves

The country meets its more than 80% oil requirements through import

Gas

Production is already insufficient to meet the current requirement

Demand/supply gap could be 8.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2027-28*

Coal

95% of the coal resources are located in Thar. This coal is lignite with more than 40% moisture. Power plants at mine mouth because of high moisture and low energy contents, resulting in large investment on electricity transmission

* Pakistan Energy Outlook, 2012-2013 to 2027-2028

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Prospects of Renewable Development

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Wind Potential

Theoretical = ~ 50,000 MW

Exploitable = ~ 11,000 MW considering availability of land with about 23 -28% capacity factor

Currently, wind generation projects are offered an upfront tariff of US 10.45 cents/kWh

Solar Potential is high. But have techno-economic issues.

Currently, solar projects are offered an upfront tariff of US 10.73 cents/kWh for South Region and US Cents 11.36/kWh for North Region

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60 reactor-years of safe operation experience to its credit.

3 operating plants. Chashma plants, amongst the best in electricity generation plants

in the country.

4 nuclear power plants under construction.

Trained and experienced manpower to operate and maintain the plants.

Independent Regulatory Authority.

Pakistan has:

Nuclear Power in Pakistan 17

Indigenous Capability in the Nuclear Power Sector

Integrated Nuclear Power Planning

Site Evaluation Studies

Design, Analysis, Engineering

Regulatory Regime

Plant Commissioning

Operation & Maintenance

Fuel Cycle

Waste Management

Quality Assurance

Human Resource Development

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MS/PhD in Nuclear, Systems, Mechanical, Process and Materials Engineering

M.Phil/PhD in Physics and Computer Science

MS/PhD in Medical Physics, Nuclear Medicine, Radiation & Medical Oncology

Undergraduate program in Electrical/Mechanical Engineering

Short courses

Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS)

Education and Training (1/2)

Karachi Institute of Power Engineering (KINPOE)

M.S (Nuclear Power Engineering)

One year Training Programmes for Engineers and Technicians

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CHASNUPP Centre of Nuclear Training (CHASCENT) State of the art training institute with Full Scope Simulator. One year comprehensive operator’s training. One year Training Programmes for Engineers and Technicians.

Education and Training (2/2)

Pakistan Wielding Institute (PWI) Conventional and Specialized Welding Cutting Facilities Heat Treatment Facilities

National Center for Non-Destructive Testing (NCNDT)

Non-Destructive Testing (e.g., Radiographic, Ultrasonic, Eddy Current, Liquid Penetrate and Magnetic Particle)

First PNRA certified centre to perform In Service/Pre-Service Inspection of different components and weld of nuclear power plants.

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Interaction with Global Nuclear Community

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Operating and under construction plants are under IAEA safeguards. IAEA missions for promoting plant safety in Pakistan:

Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) Assessment of Safety Significant Events Team (ASSET) International Probabilistic Safety Assessment Review Team (IPSART)

CANDU Owners Group (COG) Operating Experience Feedback

Event reports Just-in-Time Briefings Good Practices

COG Safety missions

World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) Peer Reviews Technical Support Missions Training Courses conducted in Pakistan

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Concluding Remarks

Pakistan is a pioneer developing country for nuclear power production. Nuclear power activity started in Pakistan in 1965.

Nuclear Power is a mature, economically feasible and reliable base-load electricity technology and is contributing to socio-economic development of Pakistan

Operational nuclear power plants are performing well. These are supplying electricity at high capacity factors and single digit tariffs. Four nuclear power plants of 2,880 MW capacity are under construction.

Nuclear power is sustainable option and is an essential part of solution to energy crisis as it contributes to: Stabilize electricity prices

Enhance energy security

Avoid degrading atmospheric emissions

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Thank You Saleem_ullah@hotmail.com