role of network planning tools and cases...network design and optimization detailed design and...
TRANSCRIPT
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 1
Oscar González SotoITU Consultant Expert
Strategic Planning and Assessment
ITU/ BDT ITU/ BDT ««Training and Trials on Network Training and Trials on Network Planning Tools for Evolving Network ArchitecturesPlanning Tools for Evolving Network Architectures»»
June 4June 4--8 20078 2007Moscow, Russian FederationMoscow, Russian Federation
Role of Network Planning Tools and CasesRole of Network Planning Tools and Cases
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 2
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsContent Content
• Network planning process and domains
• Objectives and classification for the different tool types• Overall techno-economical evaluation • Network design and optimization• Detailed design and configuration• Network evaluation and simulation
• Example of business cases
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 3
Network Planning Tools Network Planning Tools Network Planning: Related ProcessesNetwork Planning: Related Processes
Business
Planning
StrategicNetwork/business
Planning
Long TermStructuralPlanning
Short/MediumTerm
Planning
Network
Planning
The Network
Network
ManagementNetworkSupportProcesses
CustomerCare &
Billing ...
NetworkTraffic & QoS
Measurement ...
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 4
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsIntegrated Iterative Planning ProcessIntegrated Iterative Planning Process
Business &Financial Planning
Network Design & Configuration
Traffic DemandForecasting
BusinessAssessments
Generation of
CompetitiveScenarios
(Inputs)
Procedures and Tools
Technicaland
EconomicResults
(Outputs)
Analysis ofInitial Context
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 5
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsStrategic view: Network Layer ModelingStrategic view: Network Layer Modeling
Transport/SDH/WDM
Infrastructure and Cable level
Int’lBSC
EIR
POP/LEX
TEX
Fixed NB/BB
SSP
SSPMSC
WLL/Mobile
BTSTSC
LL
HLR/AuC
DATA/IP
SSW
GW
NGN networkFunctional level
IMS
Voice MailSMP
IP
SCPINService and Control level
VoIP VOD UMS e-applicationsTVoDSL
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 6
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsPlanning domainsPlanning domains
Business PlanningBusiness Planning
Fixed Access Planning
Fixed Access Planning Transmission
planning
Transmission planning
Fixed Switching and
routing planning
Fixed Switching and
routing planning
IT, OSS, IMS and Applications planning
IT, OSS, IMS and Applications planning
Access radio planning
Access radio planning
Core radio planning
Core radio planning
Signaling and control planning
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 7
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsTools::ToolTool categoriescategories by by coveragecoverage andand detaildetail
Overall techno-economical evaluation
Network Design and Optimization
Detailed Design and Configuration
Analysis and Simulation
+ L
evel
of
det
ail
+ N
etw
ork
cove
rag
e
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 8
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsTools::ToolTool categoriescategories by by coveragecoverage
Overall techno-economical evaluation
Design and
Optimization
Detailed Design and
Configuration
Analysis and
Simulation
Lev
el o
f d
etai
l
Net
wo
rk c
ove
rag
e
Multilayer, Multitechnology
Specific methods for given Network segment, and/or
Technology
Detailed algorithms for a given system family
Performance evaluation for a given system/configuration
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 9
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsSupport tools: BusinessSupport tools: Business
• Required functionality for Business tools in NGN
- Service Demand Projection
- Dynamic modeling for technology substitution and migration rates
- Dimensioning multiple flows (circuit and packet modes)
- Evaluation of network resources and associated investment
(CAPEX)
- Evaluation of revenues for given tariffs and installation rate
- Modeling multiple resource lifetimes
- Modeling of demand elasticity to tariffs
- Interrelation between network growth and operational cost (OPEX)
- Cost assignment as a function of utilization rates
- Generation of standard financial results like Cash Flow, Profit &
Loss, Balance Sheet, NPV, IRR, etc.
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 10
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsSupport tools: Design and Optimization (I)Support tools: Design and Optimization (I)
• Required functionality for Technical design tools in NGN
– Service demands characterization and traffics for VoIP and NGN multiservice flows
– Conceptual Network Design and Capacity Planning
– Comparison of different network structures– Routing flows for most typical cases including OSPF, shortest path,
widest path and weighted cost functions.
– Optimizing locations and connections of network gateways
– Cost, Performance and Reliability Analysis
– Estimation of investment costs for the rollout and the extension of the investigated multi-service network
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 11
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsSupport tools: Design and Optimization (II)Support tools: Design and Optimization (II)
• Required functionality for Technical design tools in NGN
– Estimation of end-to-end delays
– Technical Site and System Planning
– Allocation of the IP or MPLS links
– Formation of virtual networks
– Routing over ATM links or PDH/SDH systems or tunneling via otherIP links
– Sub-networking and addressing
– Configuring the network elements (IP router)
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 12
• Specific strategy to ensure survivability in competition in a
“medium –developing” country
• What customer classes to serve
• What service categories to address
• What are the business impacts due to different combinations of services
• What-if analysis for business at Short-term view and Long-term view
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
Operator needs to decide and evaluate market position on services:
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 13
Case study for medium size country with mixes of customer classes and triple play services domains:
– Multi-service IP Network with integrated operation available
– Three customer classes considered: Business, SOHO/SME and Residential
– Three service categories to analyze: Voice, Data/Internet, IPTV
– Scenario considering the modeling of demands, multi-service traffic flows, dimensioning, network resources, CAPEX, OPEX and financial results for different levels of competition
– Evaluate future Net Present Value (NPV) for a 10 years period
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 14
SOHO and Small Enterprise
All Segments (reference)
Residential
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Year-1e+08
0e+08
1e+08
2e+08
3e+08
4e+08
5e+08
6e+08
7e+08
8e+08
Eur
o
Effects of the mix of customers on Reference Scenario: Low competition levelNetwork NPV
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
• SME and SOHO with quicker recovery but less NPV and company value at medium term
• “All customer segments” case with much better behavior
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 15
Internet
Internet & VoDSL
Internet & Video
All Services (reference)Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Year-2e+08
-1e+08
0e+08
1e+08
2e+08
3e+08
4e+08
5e+08
6e+08
7e+08
Eur
o
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
Effects of the mix of services on Reference Scenario: Low competition levelNetwork NPV
• Major impact of service classes on NPV and company survivability• Single service classes without future
• High benefit of “all services” case
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 16
Internet
Internet & VoDSL
Internet & Video
All Services (reference)
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Year-2e+08
-1e+08
0e+08
1e+08
2e+08
3e+08
4e+08
5e+08
Eur
o
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
Effects of the mix of services on typical scenario: Medium competition levelNetwork NPV
• Increase of competition level amplifies the previous effects on feasibility: big differences between service mixes
• Data only or single service classes without feasibility at medium term• Very robust behavior for the “all services” case
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 17
• The mix of customer classes and service provided have a high impact on the business results at medium and long term
• Addressing all service categories provides more robust financial behavior that service subsets
• Business customers provide quickest rate of return but highest number of residential customers higher capability to increase volume at long term
• Service convergence will improve economies of scale and survivability in a competitive environment
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Example of StrategyStrategy Business CaseBusiness Case
Lessons to care
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 18
• Migration strategy from a 2G network towards a 3G solution in a
“medium–developing” country
• How to model and dimension the mix of voice and data services
• What is the impact of new services on the network design, bandwidth
requirements and quality
• What are the consequences on CAPEX, OPEX and Revenues due to
new services
• What-if analysis for business at Short-term view and Long-term view
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Operator needs to model and evaluate evolution of mobile network:
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 19
• Country with a typical mix of urban, suburban, rural and hot-spots
geo-scenarios
• Installed GSM network with 90% of territory covered and customers
penetration of 30%
• New customers expected to duplicate in the study period
• Migration period planned to be completed in 5 years
• Differentiation in the modeling of customer traffic and dimensioning
per geo-scenario
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Case study for a country with existing 2G with medium penetration level
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 20
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Multicriteria Dimensioning principles for multimedia services
C1) - Radio Coverage per frequency type: 900, 1800, 2500: dominant for low voice traffic without data.
C2) - Traffic in erlangs for voice: dominant in urban scenarios and hot-spots
C3) - Data services quality as a function of speeds: dominant in suburban and rural scenarios
C4) - Data bandwidth as a function of mix of data services Sustained Bit Rates and QoS along the cell due to the cell-breathing effect: dominant for significant proportion of data and video consumption in all scenarios
Actual dimensioning for cells and equipment as a result of the convolution of all of them per geo-scenario
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 21
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
– Customer Segments (business, residential) and Services (Voice and
Data low/medium/high speed)
– Sites and Base Stations at Urban, Suburban, Rural and Hot spots
– Backhaul per geo-scenario
– Core Network with the specific network elements in the architecture
– Transport for voice, circuit mode data and packet mode data
– Interconnection for voice and data
Network Network SystemsSystems ModelingModeling for for thethe migrationmigration
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 22
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
MSCRNC
GPRS
BTS
BTS
PSTN/IP/NGNNetwork
SS7Network
GGSNSGSN
HLR
Applications
NMCGWs
EvaluatedEvaluated architecturesarchitectures
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 23
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
UMTS voiceRes.
GSM voice Res.
UMTS voice Bus.
GSM voice Bus.
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Year
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
Erla
ngs
Service Demand for voice - Busy-Hour Traffic
Typical planning resultsTypical planning results
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 24
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
GSM base stations
UMTS base stations
UMTS carriers
GSM TRXs
Y1 Y3 Y5 Y7 Y9
Year
0e+07
2e+07
4e+07
6+07
8e+07
1e+08
1.2e+08
US
$
Resource Capital Expenditure
Typical planning resultsTypical planning results
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 25
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Y1 Y3 Y5 Y7 Y9
Year
0
400.000
800.000
1.200.000
1.600.000
2.000.000
2.400.000
2.800.000
3.200.000
Mbi
t/s
Bandwidth per service class of business customers
Data bandwidth
Voice bandwidth
Typical planning resultsTypical planning results
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 26
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10Year
0e+07
4e+07
8e+07
12e+07
16e+07
20e+07
24e+07
28e+07
US
$
Revenue per service type for consumer customers
Data services
UMTS voice
GSM voice
Typical planning resultsTypical planning results
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 27
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
NPV (ZeroTerminal Value)
NPV (EBITDA Multiplier=5)
NPV (PerpetuityRate)
0e+08
2e+08
4e+08
6e+08
8e+08
10e+08
12e+08
14e+08
16e+08
18e+08
20e+08
22e+08
US
$
YearY1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Network NPV with/without Terminal values UMTS Scenario
June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 28
• Modeling of the migration of 2G to 3G requires careful modelingof the two architectures at the same time
• Dimensioning of 3G networks imply a network redesign due to high speed services
• 3G networks require important CAPEX investments during first years
• New services introduction strategy is fundamental to benefit from the new revenues of data services
• Business profitability is positive after initial years as well as strategic positioning in competition
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsExample of Business Migration to 3GExample of Business Migration to 3G
Lessons to care
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June 2007 ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S. slide 29
Network Planning Network Planning ToolsToolsSummary RemarksSummary Remarks
• Ensure proper modeling of key techno-economical
factors
• Focus on multiple customers, multiple services domains
• Take benefit of all economies of scale in the evolution
towards convergence
• High number of alternatives require the use of powerful
and professional tools