ROLE OF GAS IN THE ENERGY MIX

Dr Philippe A. TanguyTotal

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND

Sources: Total, UN, IMF - last update February 2012

GDP Energydemand

Average growthper year

0.9%

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030(e)

Billion

1.1%

0.2%

1.3%

1.6%

0.4%

Trillion $ 2010

50

100

150

200

1990 2010 2030(e)

3.7%

5.1%

2.1%2.2%

5.0%

3.4%

50

150

250

350

1990 2010 2030(e)

Mboe/d 1.1%

1.8%

1.7%

0.2%

2.5%

0.9%

Population

2

Gas to become the second largest energy source by 2030

EVOLUTION OF ENERGY MIX

Total estimations

3

VERY SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES

Oil resources Natural gas resources

Conventional gas mainly in Russia, Iran and QatarShale gas development in the US

Transport and liquefaction constraints to development of isolated gas resources

Conventional oil mainly in the Middle EastExtra-heavy oil mainly in Canada and Venezuela

~3000 bboe

Non conventional resources

Extra-heavy oils

New discoveries and enhanced oil recovery

Known resources

33 yrs production at present rates

50 yr

100 yr

70 yr

~3000 bboe (16.000 Tcf)

55 yrs production at present rates

80 yr

145 yr

Already producted

Total estimations

4

ENERGY CONSUMPTION TRENDS

Sources: IEA5

2010-2020 EVOLUTION OF GAS MARKET

6

Total estimations

Domestic supply

Pipeline imports

Existing LNG contracts

2010-2020 EUROPEAN GAS DEMAND

7

Total estimations

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Coal bed methane* Tight gas* Shale gas*

EuropeAmérique LatineCEIAfriqueMoyen OrientAmérique du NordAsie

VERY LARGE NON CONVENTIONAL GAS RESOURCES POTENTIAL

Sources: Total, IEA, CERA

Non conventional gas resourcesBillions boe

Potential constraints : geological structures, production costs, environment, logistics

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

North America

Asia

Europe

CEI

8

UNCONVENTIONAL GAS A REAL RESOURCE IN THE FUTURE EUROPEAN ENERGY LANDSCAPE?

Dr Philippe A. TanguyTotal

10

RESOURCE TYPOLOGY

Sources: IFPEN

COAL BED METHANE

CBM production (Shell Document)

11

SHALE GAS PRODUCTION

1,000+ m horizontal

Water fracs with sand

5-20 fracs per well

10-20 km3 water/well

30-70% water flowback

12

Sources: MIT

IMPACT MANAGEMENT

13

Sources: MIT

IMPLEMENTING BEST PRACTICES

IEA 2011

14

Sources: MIT

SHALE GAS RESOURCE WORLDWIDE

15

16

PRODUCTION OF GAS IN 2035

Sources: IEA