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Skilling  Australia  Summit  Securing  the  future  prosperity  of  our  economy  and  na7on  30  June  -­‐-­‐-­‐  1  July  2014  

Current,  emerging  and  future  workforce  development  needs    

Robin  Shreeve  CEO    

Australian  Workforce  and  Produc7vity  Agency  

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www.awpa.gov.au

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The  drivers  of  change  

The  Megatrends    

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T h e   c h a n g i n g   n a t u r e   o f   w o r k  L y n d a   G r a K o n  

S h i ;    t o   c o n n e c < v i t y  

S h i ;    t o   q u a l i t y    

o f   e x p e r i e n c e  

S h i ;    t o   m a s t e r y  

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T h e   fi v e   f o r c e s  

Source:  Forces  shaping  the  future  of    work  -­‐    Lynda  GraKon  inves7gates    The  Future  of  Work  ,  Business  Strategy  Review  Q3-­‐2010    

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T h e   f u t u r e   o f   w o r k  

Source:  Forces  shaping  the  future  of    work  -­‐    Lynda  GraKon  inves7gates    The  Future  of  Work  ,  Business  Strategy  Review  Q3-­‐2010    

Forever  Young  The  Ageing  Popula<on  –  Australia  

Data  Source:  Australian  Bureau  of  Sta7s7cs  

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

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Changing  profile  of  industry  

D e c l i n e   o ff s e t   b y   g r o w t h   i n  o t h e r   s e c t o r s  

Employment and workforce development  

Employment  in  Australia  by  industry,  share  of  total,  1961-­‐62  to  2011-­‐12  

Note:  Totals  for  2011-­‐12  are  es7mated.     Sources:  ABS;  RBA;  Withers,  Endres  and  Perry  (1985)  in  Lowe  (2012).  

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C h a n g e   i n   e m p l o y m e n t   s h a r e s   b y  i n d u s t r y : 2 0 1 2   t o   2 0 3 0  

( T r e a s u r y   m o d e l l i n g )  

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www.awpa.gov.au

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Qualifica7ons  and  providers    

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Mo r e   j o b s   f o r   h i g h e r   s k i l l s  T h e   A u s t r a l i a n   c o n t e x t  

Employment and workforce development  

+38%  

+32%  

+10%  

+18%  

+6%  

0  

500  

1000  

1500  

2000  

2500  

3000  

3500  

4000  

Skill  level  1   Skill  level  2   Skill  level  3   Skill  level  4   Skill  level  5  

Person

s  em

ployed

 ('00

0)  

Skill  level  (ANZSCO)  

2012  

2003  

Change  in  persons  employed  by  skill  level,  Australia,  2003  to  2012  

Source:  ABS  (2013)  Labour  Force,  Australia,  Detailed,  Quarterly,  cat.  no.  6291.0.55.003,  four  quarter  average  to  November.  

13  

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A u s t r a l i a   w i l l   n e e d   a   m o r e   h i g h l y  s k i l l e d   a n d   q u a l i fi e d   w o r k f o r c e  

Qualifica<on  held   2011   2025  (‘000)   Average  annual  change  2011–25  (%)  

       Long  boom  

Smart  recovery  

Terms  of  trade  shock  

Ring  of  fire  

Long  boom  

Smart  recovery  

Terms  of  trade  shock  

Ring  of  fire  

Postgraduate   1,588.0   3,104.7   2,714.9   2,941.4   2,187.5   4.9   3.9   4.5   2.3  

Undergraduate   4,126.3   7,256.9   6,475.3   6,877.5   5,435.7   4.1   3.3   3.7   2  

Advanced  diploma/Diploma  

2,299.5   3,842.3   3,428.2   3,632.4   2,920.1   3.7   2.9   3.3   1.7  

Cer7ficate  III  &IV   3,597.6   6,195.8   5,323.0   5,671.9   4,441.9   4   2.8   3.3   1.5  

Cer7ficate  I  &  II   1,563.1   2,079.2   1,914.9   1,961.2   1,774.6   2.1   1.5   1.6   0.9  

Total   13,174.6   22,479.0   19,856.4   21,084.5   16,759.8   3.9   3   3.4   1.7  

Total  qualifica7ons  held  by  persons  employed,  unemployed  and  not  in  the  labour  force,  by  scenario  and  qualifica7on  level  (‘000)  

Derived  from  DeloiKe  Access  Economics,  2012,  Economic  modelling  of  skills  demand  and  supply,  Tables  5.10–5.17.  

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UK  Study  by  IPPR  says  differences  in  replacement  and  expansion  jobs  

Millions  of  new  job  openings  by  Skill  Level  

Source:  Table  2  from  Go8  (2014).  Policy  Note  Labour  market  demand  for  university  graduates  

0  

50  

100  

150  

200  

250  

Percen

t  

Per  cent  of  Qualifica<on  

University  

VET    

No  postsecondary  

Which  providers  support  which  sectors?  

0  

20  

40  

60  

80  

100  

120  

Managers    

Profession

als    

Technicians  and  Trades  

Workers  

Commun

ity  and

 Personal  

Service  Workers  

Clerical  and

 Adm

inistra7

ve  

Workers  

Sales  Workers  

Machine

ry  Ope

rators  and

 Drivers   Labo

urers  

Percen

t  Per  cent  of  Occupa<on    

University  

VET    

No  postsecondary  

Source:  Table  1  from  Go8  (2014).  Policy  Note  Labour  market  demand  for  university  graduates  

By  type  of  job  

S t u d e n t   r e t u r n s   –   V E T   a n d   H E  

Source:  KPMG  Econtech  ,  Economic  Modelling  of  Improved  Funding  and  Reform  Arrangements  for  UniversiMes  (2010)  

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Source:  Go8  (2014).  Policy  Note  Demand  for  higher  educaMon,  by  field  

-­‐300%  -­‐250%  -­‐200%  -­‐150%  -­‐100%  -­‐50%   0%   50%   100%  150%  200%  250%  

Cluster  1-­‐Law,  Accoun<ng,  Admin,  Economics,  Commerce  

Cluster  2-­‐  Humani<es  

Cluster  3a-­‐Maths,  Stats  

Cluster  3b-­‐  Behaviour  Science,  Social  Studies  

Cluster  3c-­‐  IT,  Built  Env,  other  Health  

Cluster  4-­‐  Educa<on  

Cluster  5a-­‐Clinical  Psychology,  Languages,  Visual  and  Performing  Arts  

Cluster  5b-­‐  Allied  Health  

Cluster  6-­‐  Nursing  

Cluster  7a-­‐Science  

Cluster7b-­‐Engineering,  Surveying  

Cluster  8a-­‐  Agriculture  

Cluster  8b-­‐Medicine,  Den<stry,  Veterinary  

Change  in  share  of  Commonwealth  supported  load  by  funding  cluster,  2001-­‐2010  

Source:  Go8  (2014).  Table1.  Policy  Note  Demand  for  higher  educaMon,  by  field  

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Graduate and Total Unemployment

Graduate Unemployment

Total Unemployment

Recession - total unemployment increases at a faster rate than graduate unemployment

Recession - total unemployment increases at a faster rate than graduate unemployment

Source:  ABS,  EducaMon  and  Work,  various  issues.  

Global Financial Crisis

Private rate of return by discipline Discipline   Males   Females  

Humani7es   3%   9%  

Science   10%   11%  

Allied  Health   13%   14%  

Mathema7cs  and  sta7s7cs   13%   12%  

Informa7on  Technology   17%   15%  

Engineering   15%   14%  

Architecture   9%   6%  

Medicine   16%   15%  

Nursing   17%   14%  

Den7stry   20%   17%  

Educa7on   11%   10%  

Visual  and  Performing  Arts   *   *  

Commerce   17%   15%  

Law   17%   15%  

Economics   18%   15%  

Total   15%   12%  

*  =  zero  or  below  zero  rate  of  return  

Project  Manager  -­‐  A  demonstrated  track  record  in  project  management  for  Construc7on  Projects  to  the  value  of  $30M  or  over,  with  a  minimum  of  10  years  experience  to  support  this.  Must  hold  a  professional  qualifica7on  in  Construc7on.  

Senior  Site  Manager  -­‐  Must  have  substan7al  knowledge  and  experience  in  Site  Management  for  high  rise  construc7on  projects,  (15  levels  and  upwards)  to  the  value  of  $40M,  knowledge  and  experience  in  Occupa7onal  Health  &  Safety  regula7ons,  and  excellent  communica7on  skills.  A  minimum  of  eight  years  experience  and  a  ter<ary  qualifica<on  is  required.  

Site  Manager  -­‐  Knowledge  and  experience  in  Site  Management  for  low  level  construc7on  projects,  $10M-­‐$40M.  Must  have  excellent  communica7on  skills,  and  a  minimum  of  seven  year's  experience  within  the  construc<on  industry  

Structural  Engineer  -­‐  Demonstrated  track  record  in  structural  engineering  for  construc7on  projects,  (26  levels  and  upwards)  with  a  minimum  of  10  years  experience  to  support  this.  Must  hold  a  professional  qualifica7on  in  Structural  Engineering.  

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Skills  vs  experience  gap?  

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T h e   e x p e r i e n c e   g a p  

Workers  new  to  the  labour  market  face  significant  barriers  in  gerng  their  ‘foot  in  the  door’.  

Australia  increasingly  lacks  ‘nurseries’  for  new  entrants  to  the  workforce.  

‘Tradi7onal’  transi7onal  pathways  such  as  cadetships  (e.g.  journalism,  banking,  administra7on)  are  disappearing  with  changing  industry  structures.  

Employers  increasingly  ‘want  novice  workers  to  come  ready-­‐made  with  employability  skills’.  

Young  people  who  experience  difficul7es  in  their  transi<on  from  school  to  full-­‐7me  work  risk  prolonged  periods  of  unemployment.  

There  is  evidence  of  an  oversatura7on  of  graduates  in  some  fields  within  the  demand-­‐led  system  and  declining  entry-­‐level  opportuni<es  in  others.    

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Industry  transforma7on    

P r e d i c 7 n g   t h e   i m p a c t   o n    q u a n 7 t y   a n d   q u a l i t y   o f   j o b s  

Employment  

•  Produc7vity-­‐enhancing  technologies  foster  higher  incomes  and  lower  prices,  genera7ng  new  jobs  across  the  economy  

•  Technology  (par7cularly  ICT)  applied  to  rou7ne  tasks  including  cogni7ve  tasks,  increasing  non-­‐rou7ne  work  undertaken  within  each  occupa7onal  level  leading  to  increased  demand  for  upskilling  and  highly  skilled  labour  

•  Some  debate  about  whether  recently  technology  has  extended  into  more  complex  cogni7ve  tasks,  and  how  that  might  impact  on  the  future  demand  for  highly  skilled  labour  

•  Developed  countries  have  a  compara7ve  advantage  in  focusing  produc7on  on  non-­‐rou7ne  tasks  

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T h e   L u d d i t e s  

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C h a n g e s   i n   s h a r e   o f   t o t a l   e m p l o y m e n t  a n d   t o t a l   h o u r s   w o r k e d    

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Sources:  Jeff  Borland,  Department  of  Economics,  University  of  Melbourne  

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I s   t e c h n o l o g y   e l i m i n a 7 n g   j o b s ?  

C o g n i 7 v e   a n d   r o u 7 n e   N o n -­‐ c o g n i 7 v e   a n d   r o u 7 n e  

C o g n i 7 v e   a n d   n o n -­‐ r o u 7 n e   N o n -­‐ c o g n i 7 v e   a n d   n o n -­‐ r o u 7 n e  

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B r e a k d ow n   o f   E m p l o ym e n t   S h a r e s  

C h a l l e n g e s   f o r   t h e   f u t u r e   -­‐  l e a d e r s h i p   a n d   m a n a g em e n t ?  

Average  management  performance  in  manufacturing,  selected  OECD  countries  

Source:  Dolman,  B  and  Gruen,  D,  Australian  Treasury,  2012,  ProducMvity  and  structural  change,  paper  presented  by  Gruen  to  the  41st  Australian  Conference  of  Economists,  10  July  2012.  

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The  quest  for  produc7vity    

Source:  Dolman,  B.,  Gruen,  D.,  ProducMvity  and  Structural  Change,  10  July  2012  

Contribu<ons  to  growth  in  average  incomes  by  decade  

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Insight  from  Jack  Welch     “The  best  companies  now  know  that  real  and  limitless  producMvity  comes  from  challenged,  empowered,  excited  and  rewarded  teams  of  people  ...  and  from  making  everyone  play  a  role  in  the  success  of  the  enterprise  ...  this  raises  producMvity  not  incrementally,  but  by  mulMples”  

Jack  Welch,  Former  Chairman  and  CEO  of  General  Electric    

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• Exchange  rate  fluctua7on  from  85c  to  $1.05  increasing  export  prices  

Challenge  

• Management  set  a  target  to  reduce  the  price  of  each  vehicle  to  offset  exchange  rate  changes  

Goal  

• Tailored  Cert  III  for  staff  

• En7re    workforce  collaborated  together  

Solu7on  

• Over  12  months,  the  price  of  each  truck  has  reduced  by  $10k  due  to  improved  work  processes  

Outcome  

Example:  Kenworth  Trucks  

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Employee  aKributes  

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G e n e r i c   s k i l l s  

Source:  Core  Skills  For  Work  Developmental  Framework;  Department  of  Industry,  Innova7on,  Climate  Change,  Science,  Research  and  Ter7ary  Educa7on  and  Department  of  Educa7on,  Employment  and  Workplace  Rela7ons.  

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T -­‐ s h a p e d   a K r i b u t e s   n e e d e d  

Cross-­‐discipline  competence    

Specialist  skills  

• Ability  to  collaborate  across  disciplines  

• General  knowledge  • Nego7a7on  • Problem  Solving  • Decision  Making  • Asser7veness   • Knowledge  required  to  

perform  a  task  • Subject/skill  specialisa7on  • Technical  exper7se  • Trade  qualifica7ons  • Higher  educa7on  

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Q u e s 7 o n s ?  

T h a n k   y o u  

@AWP_Agency  

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