robin mills - ccs in the middle east/north africa: opportunities, challenges and implications
DESCRIPTION
This presentation was delivered at the Global CCS Institute's Global Status of CCS: 2014 event in Abu Dhabi on 5 November.TRANSCRIPT
1
CCS in the Middle East/North Africa: Opportunities, Challenges and Implications
Robin M. MillsGlobal Status of CCS
Abu Dhabi, November 2014
Photo source: Statoil/BP
2
• Global CCS impacts– MENA countries have huge oil and gas resources– Without CCS, they will not be able to use/export much of these resources– Climate policy will increase demand for gas, and gas CCS will eventually be
required– ‘Border carbon tariffs’ are a threat to high-carbon MENA economies
• Impacts of CCS in MENA– Gas-fired power with CCS is cost-competitive with MENA’s other main power
generation options: nuclear and solar power– CCS may be important to protect high-carbon MENA exports
• Implications of MENA CCS for the world– MENA has great potential to implement CCS, particularly on gas-fired power
plants; and for EOR– However, more research & demonstration project collaboration needed
• Effects of successful use of CCS on MENA are complicated – both positive and negative
Implications of CCS for MENA economies
Importance of carbon capture & storage
Good for Middle East Bad for Middle East
Creates ‘carbon space’ for oil and gas exports
Supports continuing coal use
Potential for EOR in Middle East Potential for EOR outside Middle East
Can displace gas used for reinjection Can make high-carbon unconventional oil more acceptable (oil sands, coal-to-liquids)
Important to reduce carbon footprint of petrochemicals & gas-to-liquids plants
Reduces ‘carbon leakage’ effect
Reduces future CO2 mitigation costs
The size of the prize: >500 billion bbl for IOR in the Middle East?
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Qatar
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Produced to 2008Reserves (IHS)Available for IORUnrecoverable
• Assumes long-term target of 70% recovery factor• Total CO2 demand 250 Gt
– 140 times Middle East’s 2010 emissions– However not all IOR/EOR is with CO2
– And a large part of CO2 will be recycled
5
Differentiating CCS impacts
Yemen Abu Dhabi (Masdar City)
• Middle East & North Africa countries are not homogeneous• They vary in oil & gas reserves and production, economic development,
technological capability, carbon intensity, geography, etc• Large gas exporters (especially Qatar) will
– Lose in the short term if CCS permits expansion of coal power– Gain in the long-term as their large gas resources can be fully used
• Mature oil producers gain from CO2-EOR• Countries with clusters of CO2-emitting industries and short source-sink
distances have an advantage in CCS implementation
6
Ranking of MENA countries by promise for CCS
Country Environmental commitment
Investment climate
CCS capability
CO2-EOR importance
CO2 capture potential
Transport Overall
UAE 1 1 2 1 2 3 1Qatar 3 3 8 3 1 4 2Bahrain 5 2 5 4 6 1 3Oman 2 4 3 2 8 5 3Algeria 6 7 1 5 5 11 5Saudi Arabia
7 6 4 10 3 6 6
Kuwait 8 9 5 9 9 2 7Egypt 4 5 9 8 7 10 8Libya 10 8 7 7 10 7 9Iran 9 11 10 6 4 9 10Iraq 11 10 11 11 11 8 11
Ranking is subjective
Drivers and blockers for MENA CCS
Drivers Blockers
Growing environmental awareness Environmental awareness still limited
Substantial oil & gas experience Limited CCS expertise
Large, low-cost EOR potential Larger producers do not need EOR yet
Replacement for gas used for pressure maintenance
National oil companies are technically conservative
CO2 storage in deserts/offshore, remote from habitation
Low, subsidised energy prices
Public acceptance of oil industry Limited institutional capability
Terrain straightforward for CCS pipelines (mostly flat desert)
(In some countries) conflict and international sanctions
Ample storage space General global issues: lack of carbon price; technological uncertainty; high cost
8
Robin Mills
Manaar Energy Consulting,
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
www.manaarco.com
Contact