Robert M. Aune

Advanced Satellite Products Branch NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/CoRP

Madison, WI

FY04 Research Activities at CIMSS

ProjectsContinuing ProjectsCloud initialization using GOES sounders (Benjamin/Schreiner) Obs-based objective analysis for nowcasting (Petersen)MODIS cloud/moisture assimilation over Antarctica (Lazarra)Highway visibility prediction for Wisconsin DOT (Lindstrom)GOES retrieval monitoringRealtime CRAS production

New ProjectsMODIS cloud phase/multi-layer assimilation (Baum)CRAS moisture/clouds for NWS (Central/Western Regions)Cloud physics validation using GOES (Wade, Harrington)Agricultural applications with UW Soils DeptBenchmark NCEP WRF (NMM) on new CIMSS computer (JCSDA)Analysis of Record (Coleman, Morel)Advisor, Wisconsin Space Grant Consortium, Undergraduate Grants Program

CIMSS Regional Assimilation System

To assess the impact of space-based observations on numerical weather prediction

First real time prediction system to use cloud and moisture products from the GOES sounders (1995)

Purpose

CRASCRAS

CRAS Configuration

Model: Pseudo non-hydrostatic, explicit moist physicsGrid: Limited area, re-locatable Arakawa CProjection: Lambert conformal/polar stereoResolution: Horizontal: 61km to 10km

Vertical: Sigma, ~40 levels, floating topPlatforms: AIX, IRIX, LinuxPerformance: 65 minutes on a single 2.2 GHz Intel Xeon (Linux)

(60hr fcst, 151x97x38 grid, dx=61 km, tstep=300 sec)

Input Observations

In situ: RAOBs, surface data, ACARS, profilers

Geostationary: 3-layer precipitable water - GOES-9/10/12 sounders Cloud-top pressure and effective cloud amount - GOES-9/10/12 sounders, GOES-12 imager4-layer thickness - GOES-9/10/12 soundersCloud-track and water vapor winds - GOES-9/10/12

Polar: Cloud-top pressure and effective cloud amount - MODIS (Aqua and Terra)

Other: Gridded hourly precip, Stage II, from NCEPSST and sea ice coverage from NESDIS IMS

48 hour forecast of 24 hour accumulated precipitation ( > 6mm )from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) valid12UTC, September 26, 2002. Validating rain gauges are shownin green. Threat score: .2035; Threat bias: 1.45.

48 hour forecast of 24 hour accumulated precipitation ( > 6mm ) from the NCEP Eta forecast model valid 12UTC, September 26, 2002. Validating rain gauges are shown in green. Threat score: .1654; Threat bias: .90.

The figures below show 48-hour forecast of 24-hour precipitation accumulation ( > 6mm ) valid 12 UTC September 26, 2002, from the CRAS real-time forecast and the operational NCEP Eta forecast. The CRAS uses 3-layer precipitable water and cloud top pressure retrievals from the GOES sounders to initialize water vapor and clouds. The precipitation for this case was generated by Tropical Storm Isidore as it came ashore.

CRAS NCEP Eta

61km CRAS Outperforms 22km Eta

48 hour accumulated precipitation from the 61 km CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) forecast valid 12 UTC, September 14, 2003.

48 hour accumulated precipitation from the National Weather Service 12km operational Eta model forecast valid 12 UTC, September 14, 2003.

Real-time CRAS at CIMSSAll forecast initialized at 00/12 UTC

Location Res BCs Hours Input_____________________

CONUS 61 km GFS 60 GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc, precip

Central (nest) 20 km CRAS 36 GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc, precip

Antarctica 48 km GFS 48 MODIS clds, TPW, winds

NE Pacific 40 km GFS 60 GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc

Production Machines

Dual 2.0 GHz Intel Xeon, 1Gbyte RAM, Linux, Intel FORTRAN

Dual 2.4 GHz Intel Xeon, 2Gbyte RAM, Linux, Intel FORTRAN

Website Production

sgi Octane (Dual 300 MHz R12K) running xsau graphics package (xlib)

Products available from the four CRAS real-time production runs.

61 km CONUS 40 km NE PAC 40 km NE PAC

20 km Cent US Observed radar

48 km Antarctica

CRAS forecast imageryCRAS precipitation forecast

CRAS 12-hr forecast radar

36 hour loop (hourly) of forecast 11um images from the realtime 20km CRAS commencing 12UTC, August 10, 2004

Recent CRAS Validation Productshttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/daily/satellite/satellite.html

CRAS 24hr and 12hr forecast 11um images validated against GOES Imager

CRAS 36hr forecast 11um satellite image at 40km resolution

CRAS 36hr forecast 6.7um satellite image at 40km resolution

•SATELLITE VALIDATIONCRAS forecasts 11um and 6.5um satellite imagery. This imagery is being validated with actual GOES imagery.

•SURFACE/UPPER AIR VALIDATION

CRAS surface and upper air forecasts are validated against observation.

CRAS 12-hr forecast surface Td validated against observation

CRAS 12Z surface wind initialization validated against observation

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/daily/surface/surface_validation.html

CRAS 36hr forecast 11um satellite image at 40km resolution

GOES-12 CLOUD/PW DATA IN THE 20-km CRAS

• GOES-12 imagery is mapped onto the CRAS map projection and used to validate the CRAS forecast imagery. A comparison of a 24-hr, 18-hr, 12-hr and 6-hr forecast 11um image with actual GOES imagery is shown above. A quantitative validation approach is under development.

Can Numerical Prediction Models Forecast Highway Visibility?

Requirements for Visibility Prediction

Powerful computers to allow higher resolution (horizontal and vertical) while maintaining timely delivery

New observing systems with higher spatial and temporal coverage that observe low-level moisture, aerosols, winds, and pollutants

Sophisticated model physics to predict cloud formation and dissipation

Mass conserving model dynamics to accurately predict the transport of cloud and moisture

Improved data assimilation methods

The CRAS is used at CIMSS to exploit the spatial and temporal advantages of the GOES-10 sounder to initialize moisture and clouds in the Eastern Pacific. A 24-hr CRAS forecast of low level RH is shown here with areas of low visibility depicted in red.

Limitations

Accurate and timely observations of clouds and water vapor are required to predict the onset and dissipation of precipitation and fog

Forecast models generally don’t conserve mass and gradient structures

Need high-resolution climatologies of surface parameters to specify the lower boundary

Road Weather Information System (RWIS) tower locations maintained by WisDOT

Surface stations reporting fog at 15UTC, Dec 6, 2003

30 hour surface relative humidity forecast from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) valid 18UTC, Dec 6, 2003

36 hour forecast time series of temperature, dew point, wind, precipitation and cloud cover from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) initialized at 12UTC Dec 5, 2003.

Hourly water vapor and cloud observations from the GOES-12 sounder are used to initialize 36-hr CRAS forecasts for central U.S. Time series plots are generated for instrumented sites used by the Road Weather Information System (RWIS) maintained by WisDOT.

An Objective Nowcasting Tool that Incorporates Geostationary Satellite Measurements

Robert M. AuneAdvanced Satellite Products Branch

NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/CoRPand

Ralph PetersenCooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

University of Wisconsin, Madison

Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone January 12, 2004

Project Goals

Develop an objective analysis system for nowcasting that is observation based, i. e. minimal dependence on forecast models.

Give priority to preserving vertical and horizontal gradients in the observed fields with the goal of detecting extreme variations in atmospheric parameters and identifying the onset of significant weather events.

Must be computationally efficient to allow fast dissemination.

Be capable of updating forecast guidance in the near term.

Analysis of GOES-12level 2 (.9σ-.7σ) PW valid 15UTC 04Nov03 after seven analysis updates

Upper left is corresponding GOES sounder image. Observation fit is shown at right

3-hour nowcast of GOES-12level 2 (.9σ-.7σ) PW valid 18UTC 04Nov03

Upper left is corresponding GOES sounder image. Observation fit is shown at right

Analysis of Record Summit (USWRP)

Develop a realtime 5km analysis of surface parameters to validate the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Issues:

1) Funding to support 30 minute latency

2) Can we use proprietary datasets?

3) Do we have to use model-generated pseudo-observations?

4) Do we impose dynamical and physical constraints?

5) How do we validate the AOR?

6) How can satellite data contribute?

7) How can satellite data benefit from the AOR?

Collaborations

Obs-based objective analysis for nowcasting (Petersen)

Optimal utilization of the GOES sounders in for the Rapid Update Cycle (Benjamin)

Cloud initialization using MODIS multi-layer/cloud phase retrievals (Baum)

Wisconsin fog prediction (WI DOT, SSEC)

Agricultural forecast products (UW Soils)

USWRP Workshops

Mesoscale Observing Systems Workshop

Regional Realtime NWP Workshop

Analysis of Record (AoR) Summit (Advisory Committee)

Working Groups

WRF 3-D Variational Analysis Working Group

Reviews

Weather and Forecasting: 2

Monthly Weather Review: 2

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: 1

Publications

The CIMSS Regional Assimilation System: Adding value to Realtime Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

Predicting Hazardous Highway Conditions with a Mesoscale Prediction Model.

A Nowcasting Analysis System that Leverages Information from Geostationary Satellites

Outreach

Natural Hazardous Workshop, Girl Scouts USA

Concerns

To many requests – not enough people!