ROADTO

DOHA

www.isciences.com November 16, 2012

Kyoto and Beyond

The 10th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change

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Introduction

Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.

Road to Doha is a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: 2008 Kyoto and Beyond 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 2010 Road to Cancun COP16

2011 Report on Cancun COP16 2011 Road to Durban COP17 2012 Report on Durban COP17 2012 Road to Rio+20 2012 Report on Rio+20

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Contents

Historical Background

Conference Overview

Multilateral Process

Issues & Positions

Possible Outcomes

This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.

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Background: Timeline1992

UN Framework Convention on

Climate Change

1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012

2009Copenhagen

Accord drafted at COP15

2011Durban Platform

adopted at COP17

2007IPCC 4th

Assessment Report2010

Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16

1990IPCC 1st

Assessment Report released

1995IPCC 2nd

Assessment Report

1997Kyoto Protocol

adopted 2001IPCC 3rd

Assessment Report

Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSept. 1999

Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSept. 2011

(Image Credit: NASA)

2005Kyoto Protocol

enters into force

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Background: UNFCCC, 1992

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international climate treaty whose objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.

The treaty was drafted at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the “Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992.

“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” – Article 2, UNFCCC 1992

Called a “framework convention,” it is a starting point. Though it sets no mandatory GHG limits or enforcement mechanisms, it provides for updates (“protocols“) to do so.

The UNFCCC entered into force in 1994 and convenes an annual “Conference of the Parties” (COP) for its 195 members to assess progress.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

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Background: UNFCCC, Annex Parties

The Convention divides countries into three groups according to differing commitments. Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce

emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (EIT).

Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide financial resources and technology transfer to developing countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions. Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries.

Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to economic impacts of climate change response measures.

AustraliaAustriaBelarusBelgiumBulgariaCanadaCroatiaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaEuropean UnionFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanLatvia

LiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMonacoNetherlandsNew ZeelandNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussian FederationSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUkraineUnited KingdomUnited States

ANNEX I COUNTRIES

* Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997

The UNFCCC’s COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally binding addition that assigns national limits for GHG emissions.

The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5% below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt.

The US did not ratify the KP, China and India (Non-Annex nations with high emissions) are not bound by it, Canada has withdrawn, and Russia and Japan may not commit beyond 2012.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990 benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates.

The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1st commitment period is 2008-2012.

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Background: COPs 15 & 16

COP15 Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009 failed to establish a new agreement to follow the KP, whose 1st commitment period expires Dec. 31, 2012. Through a last minute, non-conference effort The Copenhagen Accord – unofficial, non-binding and voluntary – was drafted, establishing a 2C target for capping global temperature increase.

Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateral process to improve the global emissions pathway in time or at scale.

COP16 Cancun, Mexico, 2010 also failed to resolve the future of the KP. Still, the Cancun Agreements included work on: Green Climate Fund; REDD+; Measurement, Reporting, and Verification; Incorporation of the Copenhagen Accord; & Adaptation Framework.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

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Background: A Milestone in 2011?

COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2nd KP period and broke new ground by creating a roadmap for a post-KP treaty that will require commitments from both developed and developing nations.

“The Parties should protect the climate system …on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” – UNFCCC Article 3, Paragraph 1, 1992

The Durban Platform reinterpreted the UNFCC’s “common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) principle by emphasizing common responsibilities.

This change may encourage influential US engagement by requiring commitments from previously exempt nations whose emissions are substantial, such as China and India.

“Also decides to launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties …” – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, 2011

However, the thorny details of this new leveling must be advanced in Doha, and the issues of respective capabilities and historical responsibility remain divisive.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

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Overview: COP18 Doha 2012

COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

The 2012 meeting is the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.

* Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups.

The Conference will be hosted by Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President-Designate of COP18/CMP8* and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Al-Attiyah is Director of Qatar’s Administrative Control and Transparency Authority.

More than 17,000 people are expected, representing 195 nations and more than 5,000 observer organizations.

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Overview: COP18 Objectives

COP18’s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, and create an all-inclusive new treaty from the directive of the Durban Platform.

Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules.

Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and retire the LCA in Doha.

Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets.

* More about the Bali Action Plan http://unfccc.int/meetings/bali_dec_2007/meeting/6319.php

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Overview: Qatar’s Leadership

Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oil-producing Gulf will test Qatar’s leadership and commitment to the issues.

(Image Credit: Courtesy of State of Qatar, http://www.cop18.qa)

Qatar has the highest per-capita CO2 emissions in the world*, almost double the next-highest (Kuwait), and three times the US.

2nd highest per-capita income country, lowest unemployment

oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export earnings, 70% of government revenues

oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output for 57 years

natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic meters, 3rd largest & 13% of world total

QATAR FACTS**Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah,

President COP 18(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

COP18 President al-Attiyah has been prominent in Qatar’s energy industry for 30 years and served as Chairman of Qatar Petroleum, the state-owned company which operates all of Qatar’s oil and gas activities.

Qatar could improve its climate leadership by making a mitigation pledge and persuading other Arab nations to pledge.

* World Bank**World Factbook 2012

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Overview: Qatar’s Readiness

The wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably host COP18.

The Conference venue is Qatar National Convention Centre (QNCC), a gold LEED-certified project whose facade was inspired by the Sidra tree, a traditional Qatari meeting place for scholars and poets.

Qatar has increasingly positioned itself as a mediating force in the Middle East and has hosted global summits on economic, technological, and trade issues.

(Image Credit: Qatar National Convention Centre)

(Image Credit: Qatar Foundation)

These changes are part of Qatar’s stated ambition to move from a carbon economy to a knowledge economy.

QNCC FACTS

3 levels 40,000 square meters of exhibition space 2,300 seat theatre three other auditoriums 57 meeting rooms green technologies for water saving,

energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, solar panels

To raise environmental awareness mosques will host lectures on the environment, energy, and climate change.

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Process: UN PreparationsThe UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves many interconnected UN bodies and working groups.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/6241.php)

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Process: Pre-COP Meeting, BonnThe May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive, challenged by a heavy workload and bickering over procedural issues.

Lack of progress in Bonn necessitated an additional meeting to convene in Bangkok, presenting a financial challenge for UN resources.

“If this slow pace of negotiations continues ... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package...We are very concerned that the spirit of cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried over into this session.” Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen,EU delegate

Delegates were charged with the onerous tasks of: ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods; aligning remaining workflows with new directives; interpreting the constructively ambiguous

language of the Durban Platform.

Discussions were mired in lengthy bickering over agendas and election of officers, some unresolved until the last day.

Dissention between and within negotiating blocs, as well as the formation of a new bloc, added to the unrest and reflected the changing dynamics in the 20 years since UNFCCC principles were forged.

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Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bangkok

Legal transition to a 2nd KP period* requires an amendment and ratification. Options were discussed that may enable countries to participate while awaiting ratification.

The informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusing at times, ultimately eased tensions from Bonn and put negotiations on track.

* AWG-KP, Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; **AWG-LCA, Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ***ADP, Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

Two Durban Platform*** work streams established in Bonn were initiated in Bangkok: enhancing mitigation ambition pre-2020, and the post-2020 regime. “Universality of application,” said some, should not become “uniformity of application.”

Plans for resolving elements under the LCA** were divided, with developed countries contending that issues have been concluded or integrated while developing countries disagreed.

By the end of the session most parties agreed that some progress had been made on all three tracks.

UN Building, Thailand(Image Credit: United Nations Thailand)

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Process: Conference Schedule

CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation

SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice

AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

AWG-LCA – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention

ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

The 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI, SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, and ADP.

SESSION DATE AGENDA

COP 18 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/CP/2012/1

CMP 8 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/KP/CMP/2012/1

SBI 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBI/2012/16

SBSTA 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBSTA/2012/3

AWG-KP 17-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGKP/2012/AGENDA

AWG-LCA 15-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGLCA/2012/AGENDA

ADP 1-2 28 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 ADP/2012/AGENDA

SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS

(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)

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Issues: KP2, Transition

Ensuring a smooth transition to the KP 2nd commitment period at this late date will be challenging, with many details yet to be resolved.

Duration. The EU favors an 8-yr period (2013-2020) in line with their own targets for 2020. Developing countries are pushing for 5 years (2013-2017), fearing a longer period will only delay action by major emitters.

* See also Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments

Ratification. Legal transition to a 2nd period Jan. 1, 2013 requires an amendment to the KP. Without enough time for countries to ratify, parties may be encouraged to hastily apply the amendment “provisionally,” if constitutionally possible, pending full ratification.

Players. Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine may join KP2. Japan and Russia have opted out.

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Issues: KP2, “Hot Air”

The “hot air” details of the 2nd KP period – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon credits – must also be resolved in Doha.

* IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; By 2020 – compared to 1990 levels** AAU–assigned amount unit***CDM–Clean Development Mechanism

Emissions targets. The IPCC* recommends a 25-40% reduction by 2020* for developed countries. (As in KP1, developing nations make nonbinding pledges.) The EU might jump from 20% to 30%, but not alone. To increase ambition parties may be allowed to raise targets mid-way through KP2.

Carbon credits. Under KP1 countries beating their target can sell excess units (AAUs**). Doha must reconcile surplus AAUs from KP1 to KP2. Credit carry-over could flood the market and suppress ambition. No carry-over could penalize achievement.

Flexibility mechanisms. Eligibility rules must be set for access to mechanisms like the CDM***. Access granted if: Joined KP1? Joined KP2? All parties to UNFCCC?

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Issues: LCAThe Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assuming its work is concluded or successfully transitioned.

The LCA advances goals established by the Bali Action Plan (2007) and encompasses over 55 agenda items on financing; monitoring, reporting, and verifying; equity; intellectual property rights; and increasing ambition in line with science.

Doha must successfully resolve this impasse before negotiations can move on to productive discussion of the post-Kyoto treaty.

The EU and US maintain that most issues have been resolved or can be transitioned to permanent UN subsidiary bodies, while the LDCs** and China argue that this would be a premature and ineffective dispatch.

* LCA - Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention** LDCs – Least Developed Countries

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Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Vision”

Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platform vision of “applicable to all” will be actualized in a post-2020 treaty.

“The ADP* airplane has taken off… it may be too early to unbuckle our seatbelts because of turbulence ahead, but we are flying, and the journey has begun.” Delegate in Bangkok, 2012

* CBDR – common but differentiated responsibilities * ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

In the new era all parties will have binding targets. The smoldering challenge is to reconcile UNFCCC’s 20-year embedded principle of CBDR* with the contemporary geopolitical reality of emissions sources.

By framing Convention principles as “enduring but dynamic” negotiators might breathe enough flexibility into the new treaty to bind all parties while recognizing different capabilities and responsibilities.

(Image Credit: World Resources Institute, 2005)

Creative phrasing is being explored that supports universal, though not uniform, application: “dynamic differentiation,” “actionable differentiation,” “graduated levels of differentiation.”

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Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Ambition”

Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gap between pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2C.

Options include: Increasing the number of countries making pledges; Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and; Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international

levels.

* Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledge

Accounting and transparency must also be addressed. One study* suggests that national GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC may understate emissions by as much as 25%.

Raising the level of ambition prior to 2020 is critical to a meaningful outcome post-2020.

"…the fact is that all of those efforts actually represent 60 percent of the global effort that needs to be made if we are to keep to a 2 degree (global temperature) rise.” – Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, 2012

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

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Issues: Too late for 2?

The UNFCCC’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called for global emissions cuts of 25%-40% by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2 C.

* GtCO2eq (Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents); WWF, Plugging the Gigatonne Gap.** http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf*** http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/ ;

PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower

The likelihood of limiting increase of global average temperature to no more than 2°C is increasingly remote.

Even if CO2 levels are stabilized, global temperature will continue to increase for decades.**

Putting the world on a low-carbon diet means reducing the annual global emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (GtCO2eq) by 2020 to limit warming to +2C.*

“To be quite candid the idea of a 2 C target is largely out of the window.” – Professor Robert Watson, former IPCC chair

“The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation. ” – PwC, Nov. 2012

“I am very worried … It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.“ – Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency, 2011***

The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gt.*

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Outcomes: KP2 as the Bridge

Realistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed “superhighway” of a globally inclusive post-KP regime.

KP2’s genetic inheritance includes flaws: too few participants; insufficient incentives; no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world

will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions.

Still, the Protocol is a useful experiment in prescriptive mechanisms: flexibility in domestic decision-making; market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades

among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM).

If the KP2 bridge doesn’t collapse in Doha it will have succeeded, if only in providing passage to the new, all-inclusive regime.

(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)

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Conclusion: Politics & Nature

Hurricane Sandy, US East Coast, 2012(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)

As always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics, and nature.

Lessons from KP will instruct the equity concepts and policy instruments in the post-2020 treaty, perhaps leading to progressive targets based on per capita income, and sector-based new market mechanisms.

Complementary coalitions will evolve that augment UNFCCC’s multinational platform.

Barack Obama’s reelection may move US energy policy in a more climate-friendly direction. And, nature will unleash its own incentives through climate-related weather events of increasing frequency and intensity.

Watch for ISciences’ post-Doha analysis of COP18 at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.

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Final Thought

“Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere?”

Svante Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, 1896

It has been over 100 years since Arrhenius correctly answered his own question by calculating how changes in the levels of

CO2 in our atmosphere could alter surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.

Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 30

Citation

When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A slideshow; 10th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. November 16, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.