Doha Climate Gateway – COP18/COP8

Climate change and

development

(Eastern Europe and CIS)

Daniela Carrington

Climate Change Policy Advisor; UNDP-BRC BBL, Bratislava, 18 December 2012

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Charting a course away from dangerous climate change: A window of opportunity of 100 months

• To keep within 2C threshold CO2eqv concentration

should stabilize at 450 ppm

• A sustainable emissions pathway will require the world to cut of 50 percent by 2050

The Stern Review demonstrated that an unstable climate will undermine the conditions necessary for economic growth in both the developed and developing countries – cheaper to take action now

World population predicted to reach nearly 9 billion by 2050

McKinsey : “Resource Revolution” - Meeting the world’s energy, materials, food, and water needs greater pressure on resource systems together with increased environmental risks present a new set of leadership challenges for both private and public institutions

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Climate change - a huge developmental challenge• it tends to reinforce social inequality and

injustice as it affects first and foremost the poorest countries and segments of world population, who did not cause the atmospheric GHG overload, and thereby aggravates social tensions and conflict, both nationally and internationally;

• it undermines and jeopardizes the prospects for economic prosperity in the poorest parts of the world; and

• it is likely to threaten the physical existence of several poor countries, in particular small island states threatened by sea level rise and countries inflicted by draughts and desertification

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Post 2012 international climate change regime:

Entering into new era of green global economic growth, through significant mitigation of GHG emissions and generating funding for mitigation and adaptation actions and thus creating new investment opportunities

However the failure of the politics at the moment to keep up with the science reinforces the importance of country-level action, with greater efforts in adaptation for the developing countries.

We have witnessed three economic transformations in the past century. First came the industrial revolution, then the technology revolution, then our modern era of globalization. We stand at the threshold of another great change: the age of green economics.” UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon

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What level of “ambition”, in terms of collective emission reductions, is needed to protect global climate?

UNEP Emissions gap report • The gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of being

on track >2C is 8 to 13 GtCO2e

• To stay within the 2C limit global emissions - peak before 2020

• Scenarios 2C limit - global emissions in 2050 40%/1990 and 60%/ 2010

• To achieve such negative emissions is simple in analytical models, in real life a need to apply new and often unproven technologies or technology combinations at significant scale.

Carbon leakage

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Almost 1/4 of GHG emissions related to goods consumed in developed countries has been outsourced in developing

Between 1990 and 2008, GHG emissions from UK production decreased by 14%; whereas GHG emissions from UK consumption increased by almost 20%

Copenhagen => Cancun => Durban =>Doha Climate Gateway – COP18/CMP8

http://europeandcis.undp.org/ourwork/environment/show/

AWG - LCA – closed

Agreed Outcome

(Bali Action Plan)

“Comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012”

• Shared Vision• Mitigation• Adaptation• Technology• Finance 7

AWG - KP - closedAmendment s to the Kyoto Protocol

• New Annex B• Review of the

commitments in 2014

• SCP - 2013-2020• Participation in

flexible mechanisms• Levy on

mechanisms• Carry –over

ADP - The Durban Platform

to adopt new “protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” under the Convention by December 2015, to come into effect from 2020

• vision –a new global agreement that will cover all countries; principles

• ambition – to identify ways to achieve more ambitious global emission reductions for post – 2020

Work program for 2013Other decisions – Article 6 work programme, gender, COP19, etc.

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Work of AWG-LCA

GEF

Standing Committee on Finance

UNFCCC COP

Mitigation

Green Climate Fund AF / SCCF

Adaptation

MultilateralsBilaterals

Fast Start Finance

MIEsNIEs

Programme Countries

GEF Agencies

Technology, Capacity building

Climate Change Financial Architecture

NAMA Registry

Mid-term Finance

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Supporting the EE and CIS transition to low-emission development: Governments to have an enhanced capacity to design, access finance and implement LEDS/NAMAs

Regional ProjectThe countries will be enabled to make informed policy and investment decisions, that reduce GHG emissions, reduce poverty, create new employment opportunities and green jobs and move societies towards long term sustainability.

Developed:

• How to Guide on Low-emission development strategies and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: Eastern Europe and CIS – in English and Russian (other UNDP tools)

• LEDS/Plans/NAMAs in Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan, BiH, Croatia, and Turkey

http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/publications/

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Will require a mix of policy instruments:• A carbon price should be applied as widely

as possible, starting with removal of fossil fuel subsidies

• Speeding up the emergence and deployment of new technologies (energy-related R&D)

• Avoiding deforestation and adapting to CC

• Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services (behavior change); 3R (reduce, reuse, recycle)

• Increases in and reallocation of the financial resources

• International cooperation

Ensuring a smooth labour market transition

Transition to green development

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1. Scoping and planning

2. Development or evaluation of baseline

and LED GHG emission scenario

3. Determination of mitigation options

4. Assessment of financing of mitigation

options

5. Implementation, monitoring and MRV

Main steps in the development of LEDS:Push forward low emission economic development in an systematic manner, so

that a sustainable and low carbon future can be shaped

Identification of NAMAs requiring support

Coordination mechanism

List of NAMAs/PAMs

Decision to develop LEDS/NAMAs

National expertise

International expertise

Rio +20; Sustainable

energy for all

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Green Growth - Inspirational goal

• Top national agenda for South Korea - new economic development paradigm to solve triple crunch: energy, climate, and economy

• Life-style

Enthusiasm to show your

personal involvement

Great leaders inspire actions

Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, European Commission keynotes the Chatham House conference

'Climate Change 2012: Security, resilience and diplomacy'

14http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcI1rkGsEW4

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Thank you!

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A long-term strategy, for the low-carbon development of the developing country in the context of its broader SD strategies, including an emission pathway (domestically implemented or internationally supported)

Developed countries: zero-emission plans (to ensure compliance with their legally binding commitments)

Social Equity

Economic Growth

Environmental Protection

SD

Low Carbon Development Strategy

The EU has set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80%-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The EU wrote low-carbon Roadmap 2050 which explores how this goal can be achieved, including development of national LEDS.

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• EU pledge: independent target of 20%/1990/2020; offer to move up to 30%

• Legislation is already in place since 2009 to meet a 20% emission reduction: the Climate and Energy Package

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

A Road map for moving to a comprehensive low-carbon economy in 2050: (80-95% by 2050)• Feasible - Cost-effective pathway:

-25% in 2020, - 40% in 2030, -60% in 2040

• Requires all sectors contribution, to a varying degree & pace

• National and regional LEDS

EU ambition: to become the leading climate friendly region in the world

Options for addressing carbon leakage:further support to energy-intensive industries, continued free allowances; adding to the costs of imports to compensate for the advantage of avoiding low-carbon policies; taking measures to bring the rest of the world closer to EU levels of effort

1. Monitoring Mechanism Decision (1999, 2004)2. EU emissions trading system (2003, 2008)3. Effort sharing decision (2008)4. Renewables & biofuels (2008)5. CO2 and cars (2008) and vans (2010)

6. F-gases regulation (2006)7. Fuel quality directive (2008)8. CCS regulation (2008)9. Ecodesign Directive (2010)10. Buildings Directive (2010)

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NAMAs under Copenhagen Accord – Durban Outcome

China will endeavor to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% by 2020 compared to the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020 and increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2020 from the 2005 levels.

South Africa

India India will endeavour to reduce the emissions1 intensity of its GOP by 20-25% by 2020in comparison to the 2005 level.

Brazil

Russia 15-25 %/1990/2020the range of the GHG emission reductions will depend on the following conditions:- Appropriate accounting of the potential of Russia’s forestry in frame of contribution in meeting the obligations of the anthropogenic emissions reduction;- Undertaking by all major emitters the legally binding obligations to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions.

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World population predicted to reach nearly 9 billion by 2050

Source: “UN Report 2004 data” http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf.

Carrying Capacity of the Earth is 1.5 – 18 billion people –pending on consumption levels (food, water, energy

India Rwanda UK USA0

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