Risk of FMD-virus Introduction into the US via Cheese Importation

(from around the World)

Anwar Ahmad, T. Habtemariam, O. Ayanwale, B. Tameru, D. Nganwa CCEBRA, TU; M. Modarres CTRS, University of Maryland; and Richard Fite USDA/APHIS

Objectives

To develop a quantitative risk assessment model to determine the risk of introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus into the United States via cheese importation from various parts of the world

Foot-and-mouth Disease

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious disease of cloven footed animals such as cattle, swine, goats, sheep, buffalo, bison, yak, camels, deer, llamas, reindeer, moose, elk, vole, rats.

 It is the most contagious disease that is confined to above named animals in its clinical manifestations. Shows much earlier in pigs and sheep than in cattle.

 It does NOT affect human being. However, people handling infected animals may harbor the virus in their nasopharynx for up to 24 hours.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

CAUSATIVE AGENT  It is caused by a virus called FMD virus.  There are 7 distinct types of this virus:  O, A, C, SAT 1, SAT 2, SAT 3 and Asian

type 1  The USA is as of today free of FMD virus.

Clinical Manifestation

After 2-5 days of incubation (may be up to 18 days) in a receptive host, there is high fever.

May be absent or unnoticed in cattle Pigs showed more rapidly: eruption of vesicles in the

mouth and on the feet Vesicles soon filled with colored fluid Mouth, tongue, gums, lips become tender and sore Salivation Starvation & Dehydration (for inability to eat and drink) Complications follow e.g. abortion, mastitis, pneumonia,

septicemia

FMD Virus

FMD virus in the dirt of a shed is viable for up to 14 days

In animal refuse/dung for 39 days Inside manure for 6 days On the surface of manure during summer for 28 days In winter for 67 days Can also survive up to 15 weeks in feed On cattle hair for 4 weeks

FMD Virus

In waste water up to 103 days Can survive in milk and cheese for several days and months Dies at pH of 6 and below Dies at pasteurization temperature (74oC for 30sec)  All the serotypes in naked forms can easily be destroyed by

acids like acetic, formic, sulfuric and phosphoric acids, alkali like 1% of Sodium Hydroxide, 1% of sodium metasilicate and 4% of Sodium carbonate, glutaraldehyde and formalin

The virus can also be destroyed by heat, UV lights, gamma radiation and X-rays

WORLDWIDE FMD AND THE US CHEESE IMPORTATION So far, USA is free of FMD. No FMD has been reported in any part of this country for

decades. However, the risk of reintroduction of this virus into the

country is real since US imports a lot of cheese into the country annually.

As of October 2001, the US has imported a cumulative amount of over 1000 metric tons of cheese from all over the world including neighboring South American countries some of which have FMD, endemic in their livestock.

POLITICS AND SCIENCE

An “International Conference on Perspectives for the Eradication of Foot and Mouth Disease in the Next Millennium and its Impact on Food Security and Trade in the Americas” was held in Brasilia, Brazil, from 11 to 12 July 1996

POLITICS AND SCIENCE

The event was organized by the Pan-American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO), the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). In addition to Ministers of Agriculture of the Americas or their representatives, there was large participation of private producers and representatives of institutions involved in programs for the eradication of foot and mouth disease.

WHAT FOLLOWED THE PAHO/WHO/OIE CONFERENCE?

Questions: Do we feed garbage to our animals in the US? Do we treat garbage before feeding to

animals ? How does the garbage treated ? What is the consequence of FMD virus in

garbage-fed livestock industry

Foot-and-Mouth Disease

FMD is one of the most contagious viral diseases of cloven footed animals (Cattle, Sheep, Swine, Goat, Sheep, Deer, etc.)

Foot-and-Mouth Disease in UK

Spring 2000 UK outbreak has devastated the livestock industry in particular and the economy in general with 2030 confirmed cases

Foot-and-Mouth Disease in UK

3,195,000 slaughters

Overall ~$10 Billion price tag

US 10X the UK livestock population

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

FMD virus is a member of the Aphthovirus genus of the Picornaviridae family

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

There are seven distinct immunological serotypes: O, A, C, SAT 1, SAT 2, SAT 3 and Asian-1

FMD virus is a relatively resistant virus

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

FMD virus may be excreted in the milk of animals

The virus survival in milk depends on the temperature, the bacterial count, and pH

FMD Virus Distribution

OIE maintains the worldwide FMD virus status based upon vaccination practices

In April, Phoenix the calf is spared from the cull after surviving for five days under a mound of slaughtered cattle

Risk Analysis

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

Risk Communication

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Hazard Identification Likelihood Characterization Magnitude (Quantification), if the hazard

occurs

*Magnitude of the damage in biological and economic terms

Quantitative Risk Assessment

The process of identifying a hazard and evaluating the risk of a specific hazard, whether in absolute or relative term

It includes estimates of uncertainty and is based on the best reasonably obtainable and sound scientific knowledge available

Methodology

Initiating Event: Cheese Importation into the US

Is the cheese imported from FMD country?

No RiskNO

YES

Risk Propagated

Methodology

• Categorize the exporting countries into FMD vs. non-FMD based upon OIE recommendations (http://www.oie.net)

01/96-12/96 01/97-12/97 01/98-12/98 01/99-12/99 01/00-12/00 IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT

QUANTITY QUANTITY QUANTITY QUANTITY QUANTITYGRAND TOTAL FMD Status 153,270 141,485 168,430 197,537 188,770

1 Italy 0 27,581 25,673 25,254 29,786 29,6842 New Zealand 0 18,857 19,744 27,723 35,696 28,1813 France 0 11,183 13,743 12,860 13,631 14,6784 Denmark 0 13,430 11,067 11,274 14,072 13,7965 Netherlands 0 9,578 7,911 10,520 10,138 11,7836 Germany 0 6,564 5,824 7,811 12,580 9,0487 Norway 0 6,561 7,323 8,123 7,276 8,2558 Lithuania 0 3,857 3,222 7,322 9,075 13,1309 Australia 0 5,799 6,364 7,420 8,259 7,734

10 Finland 0 6,412 5,507 5,945 7,011 8,33911 Switzerland 0 5,795 5,801 6,033 6,814 6,81212 Canada 0 4,938 4,720 7,149 7,611 4,37313 Argentina 1 2,322 6,027 6,794 6,574 7,06614 United Kingdom 0 9,207 2,740 5,505 7,487 3,60915 Ireland 1 3,648 2,526 2,570 3,557 4,29516 Poland 0 4,667 2,693 2,590 2,792 3,55717 Greece 1 2,146 1,982 2,059 1,939 2,07518 Austria 0 2,997 1,311 1,721 2,010 1,85019 Bulgaria 0 844 1,528 1,421 1,984 2,02520 Belgium-Luxembourg 0 811 1,062 1,147 1,396 1,245

Total 17 147,197 136,768 161,241 189,688 181,535Prop non FMD 0.2297Prop FMD 0.7703

Cheese Import Data

Methodology

This categorization with the past 10 years historical data of the major cheese exporting countries provide us the proportion of the cheese coming from FMD countries and the probability of risk associated with that

Methodology

Is the cheese made from pasteurized milk? No Risk

YES

NO

Risk Propagated

Cheese Varieties

Due to numerous cheese varieties manufactured around the world, it is impossible to determine the risk from individual varieties of cheese

After consulting the cheese expert on the subject matter we have divided cheeses into five broad categories based upon the processes and the equipment rather moisture or fat contents

Cheese Varieties

Category 1: Cheddar - Dry Salted varieties (the salt is applied as dry) - Vat, Belt system, Block formation

Category 2: Semi hard - Brine Salted, Gouda, Edam, Swiss, Parmesan (the salt is applied as a brine) - Vat, Block formation, Pressing, Brining

Category 3: Mozzarella - Pizza cheese - Vat, Belt system, Cooker stretcher, cooling tunnel, brining system.

Cheese Varieties

Category 4: Soft - Cottage (can also be camembert) Vat, De wheying system, Washing, Creamer, Dressing, Filling machine

Category 5: Specialty - Goats milk, blue vein, quarg etc can be a range of different equipment

Cheese Types in kg Country FMD_st

2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000Argentina FMD 63,897 8,546Australia no FMD 3048220 3049980 2436205 2436205 997695 983200Canada no FMD 695413 1120075 41937 28986Costa Ricano FMD 18951 12731Czech Republicno FMD 4500New Zealandno FMD 11300006 11218152 8181674 8181114Norway no FMD 106563 27419Poland no FMD 1236224 1230786Slovak Republicno FMD 441310 599290Switzerlandno FMD 1666455 1688433Uruguay FMD 215011 250000European UnionAustria no FMD 277883 132480Belgium no FMD 322848 471485 182 103Denmark no FMD 6735102 6607833 1891327 1699543Finland no FMD 95306 88838 17134 18813France no FMD * 1946952 1860019 205111 152094 151 393Germany no FMD 1832912 1283053 374215 481512Greece no FMD 82883 160043Ireland no FMD * 2751990 2877245 454 3595 145713 226852Italy no FMD 1525078 1685903 208839 224426 17146Spain no FMD 111900 132772 25483 32553Sweden no FMD 512205 666512United Kingdomno FMD * 1916525 4232946 19900 9638 447546 484193

36,630,251 39,272,061 3,020,528 2,754,757 11,211,289 11,328,757 1,039,632 1,012,186 17,14636.63 39.27 3.02 2.75 11.21 11.33 1.04 1.01 0.02

edam & gouda (2)other cheese-nspf blue mold cheddar (1) am type (colby)

Types of Cheeses

Methodology

Is the cheese matured at pH <= 6.0 No Risk

YES

NO

Risk Propagated

Methodology

Is the cheese aged > 60 days?

No RiskYES

NO

Risk Propagated

MethodologyInitiating Event: Cheese Importation into the US

Is the cheese imported from FMD country?

Is the cheese matured at pH <= 6.0

Is the cheese aged > 60 days?

FMD virus introduction via cheese importation into US

No Risk

No Risk

Is the cheese made from pasteurized milk?

Is the cheese pasteurized at desired temp and duration?

No Risk

NO

YES

YESYES

YES

No Risk

Results

Is the cheese imported from FMD country? Proportion of Quantity 0.472973

0.049607

Is the cheese made from pasteurized milk at desired temp

and duration?( at 71.70F for 15sec.) pasteurized=== Type of cheese

Is the cheese matured at pH <= 6.0 varities and processes

Is the cheese aged > 60 days? processes and regulations

Is the cheese made from pasteurized milk ? If NO goto Next

Results

This is work in progress In consultations with: Experts Universities Government Industry Other countries