risk and uncertainty, field development -...
TRANSCRIPT
FieldDevelopmentPlan
Course Objective
Learning Objectives
Pre-requisites
At the end of the training the attendee will be able to identify the practices related to field development plan projects
1. Participants will learn and understand how to have an integrated view of the hydrocarbon production system, identifiying its uncertainties and opportunities.
2. Know the concept and elements of Front-End-Loading (FEL), Decision Scenario Optimization (DSO), Integrated Asset Modeling (IAM).
3. Identify the elements of a Field Development Plan and Production Operations, and how the FEL methodology can be applied in real life projects.
4. Understand the drivers to execute such methodologies.
5. Understand the differences with Integrated Studies and Reservoir Characterization
6. Identify the need for Uncertainty Analysis, Correlation Analysis, Tornado Charts, Montecarlo Simulation, Optimization, and Optimization under Uncertainty.
7. Learn to use the basic techniques required.
1. Attendants should have an background in Engineering (Petroleum, Mechanical, Electrical or Chemical) or Sciences .
2. Attendants should be familiar with the components of a petroleum production system.
3. Ideally, attendants should have some basic knowledge of statistics for engineers.
Investors set oil company valuations in part on the
company’s ability to design and execute
credible field development plans.
As a result, oil and gas company management is
under increasing pressure from investors to translate discoveries into cash flow
as quickly as possible.
On the other hand, growing field complexity
in many parts of the world has made field
development plans (FDPs) increasingly
difficult to formulate and execute.
Industry studies have shown that FDPs
routinely over-estimate field production rates and
ultimate recovery due to causes ranging from poor
initial characterization of the reservoir to not fully
integrating available development technologies.
Training Class Syllabus
Risk and Uncertainty, FEL Methodology Concepts
Course Contents
1. Introduction to Field Developing Planning: What is Field Development? Field development processes and decisions
2. Optimization in Field Development
3. Petroleum Field Development Risk and Uncertainty • Uncertainty. Processes impacting decision making • Descriptive Statistics: mean, standard deviation, percentiles, etc. • Inferential statistics: Histograms and Distributions
4. Risk analysis with Stochastic Simulations;Uncertainty quantification by stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo) • Sensitivity diagrams vs. Tornado plot; Risk vs uncertainty
5. Front-End-Loading for Field Development • FEL (Front-End-Loading) concepts; • FEL-Visualization & FEL-Conceptualization related tasks • Uncertainty processes impacting decision making (multidisciplinary approach)
6. Decision Scenario Optimization (DSO) • Uncertainty and decision making evaluation from integrated profit models • Exercises: Optimal well number and location, optimal field development by IAM
7. History Match • Uncertainty analysis and history match assisted by technology
Instructor Dr. Luigi Saputelli,
25 years of experience in integrated reservoir and
production modeling.
Additional Support On-site one-to-one
mentoring On-the-job training Consulting advice Team Workshops
Contact Us
Frontender Corporation 8558 Katy Freeway,
Suite 103 Houston, TX 77024
+1.281.217.2783 [email protected]
www.frontender.com
Schedule and Location Throughout the year.
Dates to be arranged at client’s location
preference.
Cost US$ 2,800 per student. Minimum 12 students.
Travel costs out of Houston.
FieldDevelopment Plan
Risk and Uncertainty, FEL Methodology Concepts
Pre-FEL
•Plan for resources
•Define roles
•Define success criteria
•Define models and scope
Visualization
• Identify opportunities & scenarios
•Classify risks
•Align objectives
• Identify quick wins
Concept
•Quantify economics
•Define options and portfolio
•Rank by value, risk and effort required
Definition
•Basic engineering
•Operations plan
•Risk plan
•Best practices
•Contracting
•Sanctioning
Execution
•Detailed design
•Plan and logistics
•Manage Risk
•Execution
•Supervision
•Measurement
Operation
•Track plan vs. real
•Measurement
•KPI monitoring
•Plan correction
FEL Phases: Identify & evaluate options Design and materialize options
% of Capital Investment
Diminishing abilityto influence on Value Creation
Is it feasible?Is it the best scenario?
Work quality and economics ok?
Are objectives aligned and clear?
Technical and cost estimates Class V + 50 % - 30 % Class IV – III + 25 % - 15 % Class II + 15 % - 10 %
3-5% 5-12%12
Class Exercises
1. Oil field development (forecast and NPV)
2. Optimize Field Development Profit
3. Optimize Field Development NPV
4. Build a Frequency distribution
5. Calculate Various Frequency Distribution 6. Build a Monte Carlo Simulator in Excel
7. Calculate OOIP with Monte Carlo
8. Calculate Multizone OOIP Reserves Monte Carlo