risk analysis fundamentals and application robert l. griffin international plant protection...
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals and Application
Robert L. GriffinInternational Plant Protection Convention
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
Risk: What is it?
The probability of an adverse event and the magnitude of the consequences…
Risk vs Safety
Nutritious -vs- tasty #1 rated car -vs- a good car A contract -vs- agreement The weather -vs- a bad day
Consider:_________________________
Risk is measurable, objective, and based on fixed criteria
Elements of risk Probability (or likelihood, chance) Consequences (or impact) Uncertainty Ability to manage
There must be a potential ‘hazard’ for risk to exist
Risk Criteria Choice of action
Voluntary or involuntary
Chance for loss Probability or frequency
Magnitude of loss Character, extent, time
Ability to manage Resources, timing
So, What is Risk Analysis? A systematic way of gathering,
evaluating, and recording information leading to recommendations for a position or action in response to an identified hazard
Why do Risk Analysis?
Before you can manage something you must be able
to measure it
Risk Analysis should:
Identify hazards
Characterize risks
Recognize uncertainty
Summarize conclusions
Recommend options
Document the basis for decisions
Components of Risk Analysis
[Initiation] Hazard Identification Risk Assessment
Probability, consequences, uncertainty Risk Management
Efficacy, feasibility, impacts [Risk communication]
The Hazard Question
What am I afraid will happen??
OR
What is the adverse event??
Risk Assessment Questions
What information is available?
What is the quantity and quality of information?
What is the probability?
What is the magnitude of the consequences (if I do nothing)?
Should something be done?
Risk Management Questions
What can be done to eliminate or reduce the hazard?
How effective are the options?
How feasible are the options?
What impacts do the options have?
What is the level and type of uncertainty?
What is the best option?
Variability and Uncertainty
Variability is not reduced with more or better information
Uncertainty may be:
Modeling or measurement errors
Gaps in information
Out-of-date information
Incorrect assumptions
Risk Communication
Open, multiple exchanges of information and opinions that lead to better understanding and decisions:
Consulting
Informing
Explaining or justifying
Transparency
Document information sources Identify processes/methods Provide rationale for conclusions
and decisions Describe uncertainty and identify
data gaps or areas for additional research
Mitigationrequires
assessment
Risk requires
mitigation
Initiation
Identify hazard(s)
Estimate the likelihood ofoccurrence
Estimate the magnitudeof the consequences
Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty
Develop recommendationsand describe uncertainty
Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts
Identify mitigation options
Decisionmaking
Describe the concern which has the need.Understand the background and expectations.
Evaluate recommendations against current environmentand values to select an option.
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
Benefits of Risk Analysis
Justify and defend decisions
Evaluate decisions of others
Prioritize resources
View risk objectively and realistically
Identify research and information needs
Identify technical points of difference
Important Linkages
Policy makers Regulators Researchers Civil society
What about HACCP?
HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINT
A risk management system
Requires a defined process with independent control points
Must be able to monitor, measure, and control each point
Must be able to react and correct problems before damage is done
Steps of HACCP1. Determine hazards and their occurrence in a
system2. Identify independent actions that can be
monitored and controlled3. Establish criteria for acceptance/failure4. Monitor control points5. Take corrective action when exceeding set
criteria6. Validate system efficacy and confidence
… And the Precautionary Approach? Rio Declaration (1992) Principle 15
“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States...
lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
Art 2.2 - “Sufficient scientific evidence”
Is the absence of evidence of a hazard
evidence of absence of a hazard?
A key component of risk analysis is identifying uncertainty …
A key component of decision-making is considering the uncertainty.
The role of precaution
In the judgment of the acceptable level of risk -- taking into account the scientific evidence and uncertainty
In the judgment of strength of measures -- taking into account the scientific evidence and uncertainty
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