rick smyre john vanston, ph.d. -...

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WEAK SIGNALS & MINITRENDS: Foundation for Truly Innovative Organizations WorldFuture 2012 • July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

Please contact presenters Rick Smyre and/or John Vanston to reproduce presentation material.

John Vanston, Ph.D.

Chairman Technology Futures Inc

Rick Smyre

President Center for Communities Chairman, Technology Futures, Inc. Author of MINITRENDS

(512) [email protected]

President, Center for Communities of the Future

(704) 864-9196 [email protected]

WorldFuture 2012July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

Weak Signals are peeks into a futurepeeks into a future that doesn’t exist

Minitrends are emerging trends that will soon become

important but are notimportant, but are not yet widely recognized

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Goal

To provide you with i f ti i i ht dinformation, insights, and

suggestions that will materially improve your business situation, your

financial standing and yourfinancial standing, and your personal satisfaction

Weak Signals & Minitrends July 27, WorldFuture 20129:00-9:20 am 1 Introduction and Objectives of Program John & Rick

9:20-10:20 am 2 Overview of the Minitrends Concept John

10:20-10:40 am Networking Break

10:40-11:40 am 3 Overview of the Weak Signals Concept RickPreparing for a World That Doesn’t Exist

11:40 -12:00 noon 4 Discovering New Minitrends John & Rick(Practical Exercise)

12:00-1:00 pm Lunch

1:00-1:50 pm 5 Applications of Minitrends Concept John

1:50-2:40 pm 6 Applications of Weak Signals Rick

2:40-3:00 pm Networking Break

3:00-3:50 pm 7 Weak Signals: Discovering Economic Rick & JohnOpportunities (Practical Exercise)

3:50-4:30 pm 8 Participant Discussion of Concepts Rick & John

4:30-5:00 pm 9 Weak Signals and Minitrends: John & RickYour Passports to Being First

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What do you hope to gain from the time and money you’ve committed for this

course?

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Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston to reproduce presentation material.

Overview of the Minitrends

ConceptConceptJohn H. Vanston, Ph.D.

Technology Futures, Inc.(512) 258-8898

www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.comjvanston@tfi [email protected]

“Weak Signals & Minitrends” Master Session

WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada1

MEGATRENDS John Naisbitt 1982 Industrial Society → Information Society

Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch

National Economy → Word Economy

Short Term → Long Term

Centralization → Decentralization

Institutional Help → Self Help

R t ti D P ti i t D Representative Democracy → Participatory Democracy

Hierarchies → Networking

North → South

Either/Or → Multiple Options

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MEGATRENDS Current Convergence of Computer and

Communication Technologies

Movement from a Physics Age Movement from a Physics Age to the Biotechnology Age

Increasing Awareness of Climate Change

Government Involvement in the Financial Arena

Explosion of Social Media Involvement

Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt

Aging of Populations in Earth’s Most Prosperous Nations

Long Term Energy Shortage

Rise in China’s Economic Power

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MICROTRENDS Mark Penn & E. Kinney Zalesne (2009)

91% of Americans believe too much sun is unhealthy (81% think they look good after being in the sun)

43% of Americans under 25 list flip-flops 43% of Americans under 25 list flip-flops as one of their two favorite shoe choices (Only 6% of Americans over 35 agree with that choice)

Fastest growing sport in the United States is Skateboarding followed by Kayaking and Archery

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Vasectomy reversals up 40% since 1999 (Do-Over Dads)

Each year 650,000 prison inmates reenter society; up 600% since 1973

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Minitrends……are emerging trends that are of a scope and importance to represent attractiveand importance to represent attractive business opportunities to individuals and organizations that are:

Alert enough to recognize them

Perceptive enough to appreciate theme cept e e oug to app ec ate t e

Clever enough to take advantage of them

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MINITREND Characteristics Sufficiently evolved that reasonable

projections can be made of future d l tdevelopments

Promise to be significantly important in the relatively near future (2-5 years)

Either not recognized or appreciated by the general public or most businesses

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Energy NeedsEnergy Needs

Renewable Energy

Energy Needs

Renewable Energy

Energy Needs

Renewable EnergyRenewable EnergyRenewable Energy

Wind Power

Renewable Energy

Wind Power

Wind

Generator

(Megatrend)(Still a Megatrend)(Still a Megatrend)

Ge e atoControls

This is a Minitrend 7

MINITRENDS Assist: Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and

exploit attractive new business opportunities

Decision Makers in small and mid size Decision Makers in small and mid-size businesses to gain advantage by recognizing and utilizing emerging trends

Innovative Thinkers in larger businesses to distinguish themselves by their special insights and perceptivenessg p p

Investors to uncover attractive new investment opportunities

Job Seekers to define employment opportunities

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New Book OrganizationPart One:

The Value of Minitrends

Part Two:Uncovering Minitrends

Part Three:Some Attractive Minitrends

Part Four:Prospering from Minitrends

Part Five:Becoming a Minitrends Master 10

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How to Search for Minitrends Follow the Money

Follow the Leaders Follow the Leaders

Examine Limits

Consider Human Nature

Take Note of Demographics

Analyze Frustrations

Search for Convergence 11

Follow the Money

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Money Sources Venture Capitalists

Commercial Organizations

Non-Profit Organizations

Federal Government13

Commercial Organizations Reluctant to disclose proprietary info―

however, sometimes they do

In May 2005, General Electric announced “Ecomagination”

In 2008, JCI-SAFT announced plans for Lithium-ion battery production in France

Review annual reports, public announcements, advertising

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Non-Profit Organizations Most tax exempt

Most have specific interests

Many well funded

• Bill & Melinda Gates (Children education, new vaccines, financial services to poor)

• Alfred P Slone (Research and education in basic sciences and engineering)g g)

• Pew Charitable Trust (Public policy, civic life)*

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Federal Programs National Science Foundation

Small Business Innovative Research Small Business Innovative Research Program

Small Business Technology Transfer Program

U.S. Patent Office

In-Q-Tel 16

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Follow Leaders

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Lists of Leaders Time Magazine

100 Most Important People in the World100 Most Important People in the World

Wall Street Journal

50 Most Important Women in the World

Fortune Magazine Fortune Magazine

25 Most Important Business People in the World 18

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Futurists Check List of Futurists on Wikipedia

• David SnyderDavid Snyder

• Joe Coates

• Oliver Markley

• David Smith

• Larry Vanston

• Raymond Kurzweil 19

Raymond Kurzweil The Age of Intelligent Machines (1992)

• Fall of Soviet Union• Fall of Soviet Union

• Defeat of best human chess player

• Explosive growth of Internet withwireless becoming key mode

• Reliance of world’s militaries on intelligent weapons vs. large low-tech armies

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Raymond Kurzweil The Age of Spiritual Machines: When

Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (2000)(2000)

“The End of the Biological Age”

Transcend: Nine Strategies for Living Well Forever (2009)Well Forever (2009)

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Consider Human Nature

2222

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Human Needs Meaningful long-term relationships

Quality education for children

Involvement with groups

Hi h li di l High quality medical care

Mobility 23

Take Note of Demographics

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Demographic Factors Population shifts

Immigration Immigration

Birth rates

Ethnicity and culture

Religion

Aging of population 25

Age Cohorts Seniors (Born before 1945)

Early Baby Boomers (1946-1955) Early Baby Boomers (1946 1955) Worked hard, spent lavishly, bountiful lifestyle – reaching retirement age

Late Baby Boomers (1956-1966) Less prosperous, more realistic

Generation X (1967-1976) Best educated, skeptical about life, marry, form families, commit to lifestyles later

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Age Cohorts

Millenniums (1977- )Millenniums (1977 )

Very savvy technologically, sophisticated, liberal in regard to social issues,

dedicated to “doing good,” willing to make personal information available to others

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Results

Older groups don’t realize their experience and value systems have little relevance toand value systems have little relevance to

younger groups

and vice versa

Examination of differences and similaritiesExamination of differences and similarities can uncover useful Minitrends

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Search for Convergences

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Convergences Technology ̶ Technology

Technology ̶ Non-Technology

—but more about this later!

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Analyze Frustrations

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Frustrations Many situations are troublesome,

annoying, and frustrating

Long waits at restaurants, flies at picnics, surely salesclerks, long questionnaires, etc.

May expose attractive Minitrends* May expose attractive Minitrends*

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In 1997 Reed Hastings was fined $40 for a late return of a videotape

Later he visited his athletic club which had a set fee for services

He envisioned applying this model to video, CD, DVD, and game rentals

Result: Netflix Result: Netflix

Now streams videos directly to users’ PCs 33

Image: Netflix logo

Two years ago Ellie Scarborough’s boyfriend broke up with her over the phone after two years of closephone after two years of close involvement

Ellie was devastated

She sent herself a bouquet of flowers

Realized her plight was not uniquep g q

Founded Pink Kisses to assist others

… and make money 34

Image from the Pink Kisses website

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Pink Kisses Services

Flowers

Candy

E-Messages

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Images from the Pink Kisses.com website

Photo burning

Overview of the Minitrends

ConceptConceptJohn H. Vanston, Ph.D.




WorldFuture 2012


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Please contact presenter Rick Smyre to reproduce presentation material.

Preparing for a World That Doesn’t ExistDoesn’t Exist

Weak Signals Anticipating the Future

Rick SmyreRick SmyrePresident , Center for Communities of the Future

(704) 864-9196 • [email protected]


WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto Canada

“Every few hundred years in Western History there occurs a sharp transformation. Within a few short decades, society rearranges itself….its worldview; its basic values; its social and political structure; its arts; its key institutions. Fifty years later, there is a new world. And the people born then cannot even imagine the world in which their grandparents lived. We are currently living through just such a transformation. It is creating the post-capitalist society.”

……Peter Drucker

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Society in Transformation

• Industrial Economy • Creative Molecular EconomyT f ti l • Standardized

Education

• Representative Democracy

• Transformational Learning

• Mobile Collaborative Governance

• Hierarchies & Centralized

• Interlocking Networks & Decentralized

Definition of Weak Signal

“A weak signal is an early warning of change, which typically becomes stronger by combining with other typically becomes stronger by combining with other signals. The significance of a weak future signal is determined by the objectives of its recipient, and finding it requires systemic searching. A weak signal is usually recognized by pioneers or special groups, not recognized experts.”

……. Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Finland

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Weak Signals in the Past

• Satellite Communications ( )(1970)

• Nanotechnology (1987)

• World Wide Web (1991)

• End of Work (1995)

• Rise of Creative Class (2002)

Weak Signals in 2012

• RIsurgence.com

• Intergrid & Internet of Things

• Lab on a Chip

• Future Forward Workforce

• 21st Century 21 Century Community Conversations

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“The only way to find the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible”

“New ideas pass through three periods:New ideas pass through three periods:It can’t be done!It probably can be done, but is not worth doing I knew it was a good idea all along!”

……..Arthur Clarke (1917-2008)

Preparing for a World That Doesn’t ExistDoesn’t Exist

Weak Signals Anticipating the Future

Rick SmyreRick SmyrePresident , Center for Communities of the Future



WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto Canada

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Discovering New Minitrends

(Practical Exercise)

John H. Vanston, Ph.D.Technology Futures, Inc.

(512) 258-8898www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.com

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[email protected]


WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

Five Views of the Future™

A Strategic Analysis Framework

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http://www.tfi.com/five-views-of-the-future.html

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Morphological Morphological Analysis Exercise

Morphologial Analysis Process

List the tasks that must be performed

Identify different ways by which each task can be performed

Select a combination that is novel,

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practical, and marketable

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MINITRENDS Book LaunchTASK

Input Past Stories Literature ReviewersInput PastExperience

Stories from others

LiteratureSearch

Reviewers

Funding Angel Venture Capital

TFI

Publishing Agent Publisher Distributor

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Marketing Speaking Engagements

Magazine Ads

Blogs Dedicated Conference

$100 Disco nt for

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$100 Discount for WorldFuture 2012 Attendees!

Discount Code: WFS-2012

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Search for Convergences

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SituationYou have noted increasing interest in the public in both organic food and food grown l ll Y b li th t bi i thlocally. You believe that combining these trends may represent an attractive market for an imaginative person such as you. You have decided to use a Morphological Analysis to assist you in developing your business plan

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business plan.

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Organic/Local Food Practical Exercise

TASK

EngageFarmers

InsureOrganic

Delivery

99

Payment

Mason Arnold noted increasing interest in:

• Organically grown food

• Locally grown food

• Reducing time spent in shopping

Result:

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The Greenling Company

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The Staff Cookie Monster

The Bear

Curry Courier

Greenskeeper

Mango Maven

Rusty Pies

Keeper of the Peas

Sargent Pepper

Bringer of Good Thyme

Deuce Bigalow

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Señor Spinach

Sage Advisor

Candied Yams

Carrot-top

The Penguin

Krispy Kreme

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Morphological Analysis can be a valuable tool for developing i i ti f tiimaginative ways for meeting existing and possible future

needs and for defensive forecasting of potential competing products orcompeting products or

services.

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Applications of Minitrends Concept Concept



jvanston@tfi [email protected]


WorldFuture 2012


MINITRENDS Assist: Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and

exploit attractive new business opportunities.

Decision makers in small and mid size Decision makers in small and mid-size businesses to gain advantage by recognizing and utilizing emerging trends.

Innovative thinkers in larger businesses to distinguish themselves by their special insights and perceptiveness.

Investors to uncover attractive new investment opportunities.

Job Seekers to define employment opportunities.

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Individuals and Small Groupsof Individuals (Up to Six People)

Individuals seeking to prosper from Minitrends tend to be aggressive, goal-driven and willing to take significant risksdriven, and willing to take significant risks to achieve their goals. The employment of Minitrends can be very useful in achieving their objectives.

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Dallas, Texas, 1967Rollin King &Herb Kelleher

Noted growth in the cities of Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin

Projected need of business customers for dependable, economic, friendly air service

Founded Southwest Airline with four airplanes

Alert to market demand

Has 37,000 employees; conducts 3300 flights per day to 97 in 42 states 4

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San Bruno, California, 2005Steve Chen, Chad Hurley & Jawad Karim

Noted increasing capacities of digital electronics, particularly cameras and cell phonesphones

Noted growing ability of individuals to produce and transmit short film clips

Founded YouTube, LLC

65,000 new videos and 100 million views ,per day

Sold to Google in 2006 for $65 million5

Korea, Late 1990sRomi Haan

Frustrated by time and effort to clean floors

Noted similar frustrations from other housewives

Designed steam cleaner that wipes away dirt; kills germs, mites, fungus, and E.Coli

In early 2000s, founded HAAN y ,Corporation

Revenue in 2011 was $120 million6

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Minitrends for Individuals

Expanding Involvement in Virtual Worlds

Support for People Working at Home

Expanding Capabilities of Advanced Websites

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Small and Mid-Size CompaniesLess than 50,000 employees or $200,000,000 revenue

Small and medium-size companies must be continually alert to emerging Minitrends to protect themselves from competitors and to p pprovide opportunities for business growth.

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American Superconductor (AMSC) Founded in 1987, a year after the discovery of High

Temperature Superconductivity (HTSC) by two IBM researchers, Karl Müller and Johannes Bednorz

AMSC developed superconductor based power cables AMSC developed superconductor-based power cables, motors, generators, and specialty magnets and became the world’s largest producers on HTSC wires

Made great products—but no money

In early 2000s AMSC noted increasing demand for clean energy sources, particularly wind power

Developed an HTS system to address as severe voltage fluc-tuations, excess stresses on gearboxes, and reduced equip-ment lifetimes associated with the transient nature of winds

AMSC wind power sector now generates 65% its sales

80% of these sales are in China

Currently, moving into solar power

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Technology Futures, Inc. Conventional Energy (Exxon, Shell, Gulf, Continental,

British Petroleum, Phillips, Schlumberger, Atlantic-Richfield Edison Electric Institute, Electric Power Research Institute Duke Power Southern Company)Institute, Duke Power, Southern Company)

Computers (IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Motorola, Nortel, Texas Instruments, Cisco)

Entrepreneurship (IBM, Kodak, Procter & Gamble, 3M)

Telecommunications (AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, Pacific Bell, Southwestern Bell, General Telephone, New England Bell, Bell South) [Telecommunications Technology F ti G ]Forecasting Group]

Intelligence Services (Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, Defense Department)

Energy and the Environment10

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Minitrends for Small & Medium-Size Companies

Increased Interest in Privacy

New Approaches to Giving & Getting Advice

Evolution of Meaningful Maturity

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Large Companies More than 50,000 employees or $200,000,000 revenue

On recognizing emerging opportunities or threats, large companies tend to acquire or partner with companies that have been through early development

tstage.

Minitrends can be particularly important to large companies because they have the resources to support their long-term development and to take full advantage of Minitrend successes.

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Demand Media Demand Media specializes in creating and distributing

Website materials to other large companies and search engines. Recently, the company noted the increasing interest in RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds a formatinterest in RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds, a format for delivering regularly changing Web content.

Pluck, Inc. was a leading on-line producer, publisher, and syndicator of professional content and social media solutions. Pluck utilized proprietary software to help mainstream media outlets syndicate blogs.

Demand Media recognized the emerging RSS Minitrend d h d Pl k i M h 2008and purchased Pluck in March 2008.

Demand Media currently operates the world’s largest blog syndication network that connects newspapers and other media sites to selected blogs. 13

Xerox Xerox Corporation is one of the largest global document

management companies in the world. Although the company has been successful for more than a century, it is continually on the alert for developing trends that couldcontinually on the alert for developing trends that could affect its operations.

Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc. (KCP) introduced the first system for recognizing omni-font optical characters in 1974. This computer program was capable of recognizing text written in any normal font.

A commercial version was introduced in 1978 and LexisNexis adopted the program to upload legal and newsLexisNexis adopted the program to upload legal and news documents from paper onto its nascent online databases.

In 1980, Xerox bought KCP.

Xerox has continued upgrading the Optical Character Recognition device, and continues to be a market leader.

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Minitrends for Large Companies

Advances in Digital Manufacturing

Increasing Use of Electricity in Manufacturing Projects

New Applications of Nanotechnology

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Failure to Recognize Minitrends Successful companies tend to “stick to their own

knitting”

Less than 30% of companies on the Fortune 100 list twenty-five years ago are on the list today

In many cases, this is due to failure to recognize or appreciate the importance of emerging trends

The bullets that kill you are not the one coming The bullets that kill you are not the one coming from the front, but the unrecognized ones coming from the side and back

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Sharper Image Founded in 1977 as a catalog business selling

jogging watches

Shifted emphasis from catalog sales to stores Shifted emphasis from catalog sales to stores

Over twenty years established 184 stores mostly in shopping malls

Specialized in high-end electronics and special interest gifts and featured open sales displays

More than 2500 employees

F il d t i t d li i i t t i l it Failed to appreciate declining interest in luxury items, price competition from “big box” stores, and general decrease in large mall shopping

In February 2008 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy 17

Blockbuster Inc. Founded in Dallas, Texas in 1985. Products: Retailing

and renting of DVD, Blu-ray, and Video Games

Used bulk buying capability to dominate movie rental Used bulk buying capability to dominate movie rental market

As of January 3, 2010, more than 6,500 Blockbuster stores in the U.S. and 17 countries worldwide

Concentrated on beating competitors offering same service. Failed to appreciate attractiveness of diff t b i d l h il d iddifferent business models such as mailed videos, kiosks, and streaming videos until too late

The company filed for bankruptcy on September 23, 201018

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Session Conclusions Application of the Minitrend concept can provide

income enhancement, professional advantage, and a great deal of personal satisfaction for g pthose alert enough to identify attractive Minitrends, perceptive to analyze their value, and clever enough to take full advantage of their potential.

Launching a Minitrend Adventure gives you the opportunity to utilize and express your y yimagination, your perceptiveness, your originality, your logic, your innovative nature, and your basic good sense.

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Applications of Minitrends Concept Concept



jvanston@tfi [email protected]


WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

1



ApplicationOf

Weak Signalsg

Rick SmyrePresident

Center for Communities of the Future


Powerpoint TemplatesPage 1

Powerpoint Templates

“Weak Signals & Minitrends”

Master Session

WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012

Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

“I look for what needs to be done. After all, that's how the universe designs itself ”designs itself.

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”


g

……Buckminster Fuller

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• What is it?

• Is there anything like it?

When First Encountering A New Idea

• Is there anything like it?

• What brought it to my attention?

• Does it make me go hmmm?

• How does it fit into a futures

context?


• To what can it be connected to make a distinctive concept or product?

• What are the potential impacts?

Weak Signals Emerging(Business)

• Tryvertising:h d i iThe New Advertising

• Personalized Magazines

• Short Task

• Blue Mail Central


• Blue Mail Central

• Baker Tweet

• Hunch

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Weak Signals Emerging(Radical Technologies)

• Genesis Technology

Cl ki I i ibilit• Cloaking Invisibility

• Nano Gold

• Solve For X

• Painted Batteries

• Augmented Reality


g yEyewear

• Edible Wrapers

Weak Signals Emerging(Education)

• Autonomous LearningLearning

• Personalized Curriculum

• Connective Listening & Thinking

U l i


• Uplearning

• Analogous Complexity

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Weak Signals Emerging(Economic Development)

• Comprehensive Community Community Transformation

• Interlocking Networks

• Future Forward Workforce


Workforce

• Future Stations

Weak Signals Emerging(Governance)

M bil C ll b ti • Mobile Collaborative Governance

• Distributive Knowledge

• Futures Projects


• Internal and External Networks

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Looking for Connections

• Consider what will be needed in a world of t t hconstant change.

• Look for “access points”

• What types of connections can provide both a service and a shift in paradigm?

Who are those ho need to be connected


• Who are those who need to be connected to evolve a new idea based on weak signals?

And If This Is The Impact?

• What are the potential impacts on the present as well as within a “futures context?”well as within a futures context?

• What types of impacts can be expected and what may be unintended consequences?

• Why is it important to help people understand the importance of weak signals, mini-trends and trends so that their “filter of the world” will be


trends so that their filter of the world will be able to see the value of a new idea, product or process?

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“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in ptrying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

G B d Sh


…..George Bernard Shaw

ApplicationOf

Weak Signalsg

Rick SmyrePresident

Center for Communities of the Future



Powerpoint Templates

“Weak Signals & Minitrends”

Master Session

WorldFuture 2012

July 27, 2012

Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

1



Weak Signals: Discovering Economic g

Opportunities(Practical Exercise)

Rick SmyrePresident, Center for Communities of the Future

(704) 864-9196 ( )[email protected]

www.communitiesofthefuture.org

“Weak Signals & Minitrends” Master SessionWorldFuture 2012July 27-29, 2012 • Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel

Emerging Idea, Weak Signal, Discovery

Economic:

Develop Leadership Capacity to IdentifyDevelop Leadership Capacity to Identify Weak Signals

2



Potential Impact

A key transformation that will i th t i doccur is that issues and

strategies will begin to be considered within a “futures

context” instead of using increasingly obsolete thinking

and action.

Expected Outcomes:1. “Distributed intelligence” will become a part of a

community’s economic development strategy.

2. Weak signals identified can be shared with other community groups.

3. Leaders will no longer use obsolete ideas, methods and strategies.

4. Citizens/leaders will become comfortable with bi i d iambiguity and uncertainty.

5. The local culture will become open to and supportive of new ideas.

3



Strategy For Building Capacities:1. Recruit the leadership of 2-3 key community

organizations to become involved with identifying weak signals important to their future work.

2. Integrate weak signals into the learning processes of the community college to include an on-line focus for weak signals in the community.

3. Have a community contest to identify weak signals how they can help a local community.

4. Involve the youth in searching for weak signals over th I t tthe Internet.

5. Establish 21st century projects to apply the potential of a weak signal in the thinking and action of a local area.


Economic:

Baker Tweet

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Potential Impact

A shift to the concept of alerting p gcustomers when a new batch of bakery goods are fresh. Has the potential for providing potential customers everywhere about all

kind of productskind of products.

Expected Outcomes:1. Individualized customer relationships

increased.

2. Data base of inventory and just in time supply made more efficient.

3. Customers able to tailor their products as “smart ovens” developed.

4. “Futures Cookie” developed in pconjunction with community contest.

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Strategy For Building Capacities:1. Establish a network of customers as a

pilot network.

2. Establish multiple networks of citizens who have varying health needs to be a part of the project.

3. Create an “app” that allows real time design and service.

4. Develop a collaborative sponsorship that links this service with some community need.


Economic:

Future Forward Workforce

6



Potential Impact

Workforce development efforts will need to be designed in new waysneed to be designed in new ways that allow displaced workers to

adapt to the needs of an Industrial Economy, a Knowledge Economy or

a Creative Molecular Economy.

Expected Outcomes:1. Eight new skills developed for a Creative

Molecular Economy.

2. Key organization in local area facilitates a Future Forward Workforce.

3. Connections are made with entrepreneurs in other areas.

4. Networks of individuals learn how to utilize i l ki fi d i i isocial networking to find income opportunities.

5. Community moves toward increased broadband access due to more demand.

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Strategy For Building Capacities:1. Introduce the Future Forward Workforce idea at a

regional one-day event.

2 Recruit 25 30 displaced workers to be research2. Recruit 25-30 displaced workers to be research and development pilot group.

3. Present the idea to local boards who will support the concept.

4. Develop a core Master Capacity Builder group of leaders who can help develop a culture that

t thi tsupports this concept.

5. Develop a network of communities from different states involved in a collaborative effort to seed and evolve the Future Forward Workforce idea.


Economic:

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Potential Impact

Expected Outcomes:1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

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Strategy For Building Capacities:1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Weak Signals: Discovering Economic g

Opportunities(Practical Exercise)

Rick SmyrePresident, Center for Communities of the Future

(704) 864-9196 ( )[email protected]

www.communitiesofthefuture.org

“Weak Signals & Minitrends” Master SessionWorldFuture 2012July 27-29, 2012 • Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel

1



Participant Discussion of Discussion of

ConceptsJohn Vanston, Ph.D.

Chairman, Technology Futures, Inc. Author of MINITRENDS

(512) 258 8898

Rick Smyre


(704) 864 9196

“Weak Signals & Minitrends” Master SessionWorldFuture 2012July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada



1



Weak Signals and Minitrends: Your

Passports to Being FirstJohn H. Vanston, Ph.D.




WorldFuture 2012


Suggestions for Successful Successful

Application of Weak Signals and MinintrendsConcepts Concepts

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2



Identify Emerging Market Needs

3

Determine Special Features

4

3



Convince Customers of the Value of Special

Features to Them

5

Consider How the Weak Signals and Minitrend

Product Will Be Marketed

6

4



Look for Opportunities to Take Advantage of Convergences

7

Define and Analyze Relevant Drivers and

Constraints

8

Photo: http://www.landmama.com/custom/index.cfm?id=134783

5



Analyze Analogous Situations

9

Engage Allies andSupporterspp

10

6



Be Flexible

11

Stay Healthy

12

7



Apply the “Sanity Test” to Each Stage of the Exploitation ProcessExploitation Process

13

Remember There Are Other Smart People in the World

14

8



Here’s theSo What!

16

9



Seminar Conclusions Application of the Weak Signals and

Minitrend concepts can provide

I h t• Income enhancement

• Professional advantage

• Great deal of personal satisfaction

for those

• Alert enough to identify important WeakAlert enough to identify important Weak Signals and attractive Minitrends,

• Perceptive to analyze their value

• Clever enough to take full advantage of their potential

17

Seminar Conclusions Being first can allow you to dominate the

field and establish the rules

But the game isn’t over. You have increased interest in the area and alerted competition

Patents and copyrights are of limited protection

The best way to protect your toys is to develop new toys

18

10



Seminar Conclusions 80% new businesses fail in first five years, in

large measure because of failure to update.

W k Si l d Mi it d lid Weak Signals and Minitrends are solid approach to achieving updates

Sometimes projects fail no matter how clever the leaders

Pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start all over again But learn from your experienceall over again. But learn from your experience

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates defines experience as “the ability to recognize your mistakes after you have made them―again.”

19

Seminar Conclusions Application of the Weak Signals and

Minitrend concepts can provide

Income enhancement• Income enhancement

• Professional advantage

• Great deal of personal satisfaction

for those

• Alert enough to identify important Weak Signals and attractiveMinitrends,

• Perceptive enough to analyze their value

• Clever enough to take full advantage of their potential

20

11



Session ConclusionsLaunching a Week Signals and Minitrend Adventure gives you the opportunity to utilize and express youropportunity to utilize and express your

Imagination

Perceptiveness

Originality

Logic Logic

Innovative nature

Basic good sense 21

It can also be a lot of fun!

Images from Clipart.com (Getty Images)

12



John Vanston, Ph.D.Rick Smyre

Chairman, Technology Futures, Inc. Author of MINITRENDS




WorldFuture 2012July 27, 2012 • Sheraton Centre, Toronto, Canada

rick smyre john vanston, ph.d. -...

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