riaa keynote address narm 2005
DESCRIPTION
A music industry keynote address from 2005.TRANSCRIPT
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Building A Brighter Future –Making AND Selling Great Music
August 12, 2005San Diego, California
Mitch BainwolCEO, RIAA
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Retailers And Labels Are In The Same Boat
Touring MerchandisingPublic
PerformanceSales
Labels $$$
Publishers $$$ $$$
Songwriters $$$ $$$
Artists $$$ $$$ $$$
PRO's $$$ $$$
Retailers $$$
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Big TakeawaysWe're finally on offense against illegal P2P. Grokster case provides moraland legal clarity. Even so, more work needs to be done.
Eliminating piracy - physical or digital - is not our goal. But we can containpiracy - and thereby foster an environment for retail to flourish.
Players in the music community need to pull together to sharply pivot into the new world. We all must bend, adapt and experiment.
User lawsuits are working. We will maintain our resolve and enhance deterrence.
Burning is becoming a bigger problem than P2P. The root challenge though is identical.
Our future isn’t binary. It isn’t physical or digital; it's both. Consumption will rise - we need to find ways to monetize it.
Record stores are at the center of the fight. You are in closest contact with the consumers. You can make a difference.
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Where Were We In The Fall Of 2003?• Image
• Sales Pattern
• Digital Prospects
• Positioning
How Did We Respond?What’s Our Present Status?How Do We Build A Brighter Future?
The 4 Questions
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Where Were We?
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Only Good News Was Our Image Wasn’t In The Tank
Source: VCR, Survey 9/29 – 10/4 2003 among Voters
Favorable Unfavorable
Congress 55% 41%
Movies 52% 39%
Music 50% 39%
National News Media 50% 42%
Pharmaceuticals 44% 51%
Tobacco 21% 74%
Kazaa, Grokster 18% 12%
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Under Pressure
Where Is The Bottom?
For 2005, As of the first week of August, SoundScan reports album sales down 7.8% compared with 2004
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Mill
ions
of U
nits
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year
Total Units Shipped 1994 - 2004
Down 31%
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Digital Prospects?
Promising but SpeculativeMajor Impediments to Pivoting Into Digital Space• Complex law / rights ownership• Artist reluctance (disaggregation / timing)• Interoperability• Existence / Awareness of legal alternatives• Fair use “theology” run amok• Absence of deterrence
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Industry Positioned Poorly…
Bad Guys Instead of Victims
Dinosaurs / Business Model Problem
Culture Instead of Business
Piracy Cool, Stigma Free – Even Costless
All the Clichés Were Against Us
• “Music Wants To Be Free”
• “Anything Goes”
• “Genie Is Out of the Bottle”
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Was There Harm?
Downloading Is Not Harmful"The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales, An Empirical Analysis“ Oberholzer & Strumpf 2004
Downloading Is Harmful
"Pitfalls in Measuring the Impact of File-sharing” Liebowitz 2005"The Effect of Digital Technology on the Sales of Copyrighted Goods: Evidence from Napster" Hong 2005"Peer-to-peer Networks: Creative Destruction
or Just Plain Destruction?" Liebowitz 2005"On-line Piracy and Recorded Music Sales" Blackburn 2004"Piracy on the High Cs" Rob & Waldfogel 2004"The Effect of Internet Piracy on Music Sales: Cross-Section Evidence“ Pietz & Waelbroeck 2004"Measuring the Effect of Music Downloads on Music Purchases“ Zentner 2003
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Which Study Enjoyed National Pub?
Oberholzer & Strumpf 2004“Study: File-Sharing No Threat to Music Sales” (Washington Post)
“Study: File downloads don't affect sales of CDs” (Boston Globe)
“Internet not to blame for slow music sales” (SF Chronicle)
“Music sharing doesn't kill CD sales, study says” (CNET)
“Happy Medium” Music and the Internet (ABC News, Nightline)
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Perfect Storm
Generation of Kids• Love Music• Cool to Collect• Facile with Technology• No Money• NO Rules• A Million Excuses to Steal• Parents Happy They’re Home / Computer Safe• Broadband Coming of Age
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How Did We Respond?
Lawsuits (Users)EducationPhysical Anti-PiracyGrokster (P2Ps)Messaging
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Why User Lawsuits?
• Kids and Parents Didn’t Know the Law35% Illegal25% Legal40% Don’t Know / Refuse
• No Risk – No Deterrence
]_ 65%
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10. "Be honest...have you ever seen a nicer spider hole than this?"
9. "Who's got a coat hanger -- this beard itches like a son of a bitch!"
8. "Anyone have a mint?"
7. "Is this about the illegal music downloads?"
6. "Am I going to be on 'Cops'?"
5. "Which describes me better right now -- 'haggard' or 'grizzled'?"
4. "How did you get past my impenetrable styrofoam brick?"
3. "Do I get the 25-million-dollar reward?"
2. "How's the war going?"
1. "Will you go easy on me if I tell you where Martha Stewart is hiding?“
Letterman’s Top 10 Questions Asked by Saddam Hussein When He Was Captured 12/15/03
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Lawsuits
Education Worked: 35% - 25% before
65% - 10% almost overnight
Attitudes Shifted: “Should be Illegal” Improved 40 Net Points
Most People Thought Lawsuits OK
Deterrence Established
No Free Zone for Next Generation - Reoriented Expectations
P2P as share of broadband declined and is only up modestly during a period of phenomenal broadband growth
Bottom Line: Containment
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P2P Share Of BroadbandHouseholds
Source: Pew Internet Project, NPD MusicWatch Digital
Broadband User Growth Compared With P2P Usage
0
10
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30
40
50
60
70
Jun-
00Se
p-00
Dec-
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ar-0
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n-01
Sep-
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-02
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ar-0
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Sep-
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c-03
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Mill
ions
of U
sers
Broadband
P2P
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Education
Artists
Government
ISPs
Universities
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Artists
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Government
November 6, 2003Dear Mssrs. Falco, Rosso, Yagan, Bildson, and Weiss, and Ms. Hemming,
We are writing to encourage you to voluntarily take the following three common-sense steps to reverse this troubling trend and help educate and protect P2P users.1. Provide a Clear, Conspicuous, and Meaningful Notice & Warning to Users about the Legal Risks of Using P2P Software 2. Incorporate Effective Copyright and Pornography Filters3. Change the “Sharing” Default Setting
Letter signed by: Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), Dianne Feinstein (D-California), Gordon Smith (R-Oregon), Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), John Cornyn (R-Texas), and Barbara Boxer (D-California)
FTC
Congress
StatesGovernor Schwarzenegger Prohibits Use of State Resources for Illegal Downloading of Copyrighted Material"So many of the entertainment industry's talented musicians, actors, writers and programmers devote their careers to creating products that enrich our society. We need to do our part to protect the creative and intellectual property they work so hard to create for the rest of us." said Governor Schwarzenegger. "Today California is taking a stand against use of state resources for illegal downloading of this material and standing in support of the work of these talented Californians."
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FBI
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ISP Sensitivity Enhanced:Then…
“Exactly where and how to find the good stuff”
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… And Now
“ * Copyright infringement liability: Using popular file sharing software like KaZaa, Limewire, Morpheus, Grokster or BitTorrent to download and share copyrighted music, videos, software and other materials, without the permission of the copyright owner is illegal, and the financial penalties and potential criminal liabilities can be significant. The fines for illegally downloading copyrighted material can be up to $150,000 per work-that is, for every song, movie or game-in addition to legal expenses in processing your case. The copyright law may also subject you to criminal liability in certain instances. “
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Universities
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Legal Options at Universities (‘03)
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Today…
Cornell University
Middlebury College
The GeorgeWashingtonUniversity
University of Miami
Rochester Institute of Technology
University of Southern California
Wright StateUniversityDePauw University
Duke University
MariettaCollege
Ohio University
Purdue University
Tulane University
University of Colorado at Boulder
University of Denver
Wake Forest University
YaleNorthern Illinois University
University of Minnesota Penn State University Baruch College
Vanderbilt University
University ofNorth Carolina
University of RochesterUniversity of Wisconsin- Eau Claire
Trinity University
Texas A & M
Purdue University- Calumet
Eastern Michigan University
University of Tennessee
Western Carolina UniversityUNC, Wilmington
N.C. State University
Virginia Tech U. of Maryland
Drexel Rutgers U.
U. Of Delaware
Tufts
Purdue U-Ft. Wayne
*Adelphi University*Goucher College*North Carolina A & T State University
Lyon College
Henderson State University
Thomas College
University of California campuses:•Berkeley•Davis•Irvine•Los Angeles•Merced
•Riverside•San Diego•San Francisco•Santa Barbara•Santa Cruz
•Long Beach•Pomona•San Marcos•San Diego•Bakersfield
•Sacramento•Stanislaus•East Bay•San Jose•Monterey Bay
California State University campuses:•Humboldt•Chico•Sonoma•Maritime•San Francisco
•Fresno•San Luis Obispo•Channel Islands•Los Angeles•Dominguez Hills
•Northridge•San Bernardino•Fullerton
University of California*
California State University*
University of Missouri
Hofstra
Yellow stars denote campuses covered in the recently announced Cdigix opt-in partnership with UC and Cal State.
University of Washington at Seattle
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Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
Physical Piracy
Challenge: Pirates Have Become More Sophisticated,
Even as “Barriers to Entry” Decline
Mass production of high quality counterfeit CDs
Links to organized criminal syndicates
Multiple venues for distribution:• Retail Locations
• Flea-markets
• Street Vendors
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RIAA’s Response
Devote More Resources• Opened More Offices
Strengthen Leadership• New Director of Anti-Piracy Operations - Brad
Buckles (Former Head of ATF)• New Director of Investigations - Patti Galupo
Increased Searches / Warrants• Up 23% to 1649 in 2004
Collaboration with MPAA
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One Way or Another
Anti-Piracy Highlights
Increased Seizure of Raw Materials for Counterfeiting
Seizures of Manufacturing Equipment Such As Computers, Burners, Scanners, and Copiers Up Over 50% for 2004
Renewal of the Retail Blitz campaigned aimed at retail establishments selling pirate product
Focus on major flea markets with 61 active investigations.
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ResultsCounterfeit/Pirate Seizures (Cassettes, CDs, CD-Rs, Labels)
9.6 Million
5.8 Million6.9 Million
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2003 2004
Milli
ons
of U
nits
+65%’02 – ‘04
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Grokster Decision
More Than A CaseShatters the Complexities • “Garden Variety Theft” (Justice Breyer)• Sony doesn’t obviate secondary liability where
infringement actively encouraged
Speaks to Culture As Much As LawAudience: Downloaders / Elites / Parents9-0 Especially Powerful
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I Think I Smell A Rat
Grokster – Supreme Thought:
“The unlawful objective is unmistakable.”or…
We can smell a rat when we see one!
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Pre-Ruling, The Majority of Consumers Sided With Our Position…
Adults 18 - 54
Neither3%
MGM43%
Lean MGM7%
Lean Grokster8%
Don’t Know8%
Grokster31%
MGM – 50Grokster - 39
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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The Unanimous Decision Had A Big Impact on Attitudes
Age 18-54
June 2005 - After Hearing Both Sides
50%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MGM Grokster
+11%
July 2005 - After Hearing Court Decision
70%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MGM Grokster
+50%
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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Consumers See More Lawsuits As Both A Likely & Positive Outcome Of The Decision
Perceptual Map of Adults 18 - 54
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
3 4 5 6 7 8Perception of Outcome (1 Worst - 10 Best Scale)
Out
com
e Li
kelih
ood
(by
% C
erta
in o
r Ver
y Li
kely
)
Industry more aggressive going after file sharing companies
More consumers will pay to download
Industry more aggressive going after file sharing individuals
Record industry more likely to invest in new and more artistsInnovation will be slowed
Kids will learn the right lesson
Positive Outcome, Low Likelihood
Positive Outcome, High Likelihood
Negative Outcome, Low Likelihood
Negative Outcome, High Likelihood
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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All Good, But…
For Broad Public, No Matter How Compelling the Story, It Hasn’t Been Heard Nearly Enough
56% Haven’t Seen, Read, or Heard About the Case
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…Most Consumers Support Suing Illegal Downloaders, File Sharing Companies, or Both
34%
Sue Neither25%
Sue Both36%
Adults 18-54
Sue File Sharing Companies
4% Sue P2P Users
1% Don’t Know/ Refused
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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Consumers Make Little Distinction Based on Number of Files Downloaded
Adults 18 - 54
68% 65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1000 Files 100 Files
Perc
ent A
gree
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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Over and Over
So What Does All Of This Mean?
We Need To Tell Our Story Over and Over AgainMessage Heard Loud and Clear by P2PsPublic Approval For User Suits• Ramp Up Numbers• Lower Threshold
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Messaging
Rather than Old vs New, Tech vs Content, Plastic vs Digital…• Real Issue is Legal vs Illegal
Property Rights – Property Rights – Property Rights!We Are Morally Right; They Are Morally Wrong – Bad ActorsThey Cause Real Harm
• Economic
• Jobs
• Culture
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What’s Our Present Status?
Cultural Signals
New Product Explosion
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Leno
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My Generation
But Have We Lost A Generation?
“If I told you I wanted a song, I could get it in three seconds. Not even having to download it myself – I could get it in three seconds from any number of sources.”
“I think it should be illegal, but I download because it’s something I do.”
“I’ll be downloading when I’m 50”
“…you can’t charge me $20.00 for a crappy CD that lasts 45 minutes long…”
“It’s not our responsibility to just stop downloading”
Quotes from college and recent grads during focus group June ‘05
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Click Click Boom!
Digital Consumption Exploding…
0.0 0.3 519
42
70
110
155
224
307
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
DIg
ital T
rack
s So
ld (M
illio
ns)
1Q '03 2Q '03 3Q '03 4Q '03 1Q '04 2Q '04 3Q '04 4Q '04 1Q '05 2Q '05Period
Cumulative Tracks Sold
Tracks Sold In Quarter
iTunes, Napster 2.0, and WalMart Music Downloads Launched
Rhapsody Launched
Launch of Yahoo Music Service & Grokster Decision
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…Yet Remains A Fraction Of The Market
Consumer Spending On Recorded Music 2004
97.5% Other Distribution
1.7% Downloads 0.8% Subscription
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It’s Not An Either / Or World!
Future Is A HybridDigital Consumers Are Big Physical Consumers
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Digital Consumers Are Big Physical Consumers
Source: NPD
$95
$53
$92
$81
$78
$9
$48
$0
$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140$160$180$200
PaidDownloaders(past 2 years)
DigitalSubscribers
(past 2 years)
P2P Users (past2 years)
Buy CD's Only(13 years & up)
Estimated Music Spending (Last 12 Months)
Other Spending
Spending On CDs Only$148
$173
$87
$48
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The Lines Are Crossing
June 2004 – Net Illegal
June 2005 – Net Legal
Age 18 - 54
More Adults Now Say They Have Downloaded Using Legal Services Than Free P2P
6%
13%
12%
10%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
June '04 June '05
Ever Used P2P
Ever Paid to Download
Source: Public Opinion Strategies
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What Do We Know About the Habits of Today’s Fans?
Emerging Challenges?
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Some Buy More, But Most People Are Buying Fewer CDs…
Source: The Taylor Research & Consulting Group, Inc.
28%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
More Less
All Ages Purchasing pattern
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…With The Most Significant Decline Among The 16 – 24 Year Old Age Group
Source: The Taylor Research & Consulting Group, Inc.
28%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
More Less
16 - 24 Year Old Purchasing pattern
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Music Acquisition Is Only AboutHalf Through CD Purchases
Source: NPD
}29% Burning / Ripping
How Music Was Acquired In The Past 12 Months (Dec 2004)
Paid Downloads
4%
P2P16%
Ripped (from others)
11%
Burned (from others)
18%
CD's51%
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Key Point
Burning and Ripping Are Becoming A Greater Threat Than P2P
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Burning Down The House
Burning Is A Real Problem
About 12% of Households Burn CDs
63% Burned 1 to 5 CDs In A Month
20% Burned 6 to 10 CDs
17% Burned More Than 10 CDs!
Source: NPD
•We have no objection to personal use burning
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Top Burned Artists in April
Source: NPD
(MusicWatch Digital Apr.‘05)
# Songs Burned 50 CENT 7,144,000 MARIAH CAREY 2,829,000 GREEN DAY 2,593,000 METALLICA 2,568,000 THE GAME 2,426,000 THE BEATLES 2,069,000 EMINEM 2,019,000 LINKIN PARK 1,782,000 LUDACRIS 1,744,000 NELLY 1,561,000
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How Do We Build a Brighter Future?
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Specifics…
Pivot to New Products and Services
• DualDisc
• Kiosks
• Copy Protected CDs
Win The Message War
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DualDisc
Combined CD / DVD On A Single Disc
Major Labels All Developing DualDiscs
Tremendous Consumer Acceptance and Interest
Releases include Bruce Springsteen, Rob Thomas, Kelly Clarkson, John Mayer and many others
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Kiosks
Allow consumers to create their own mix CDs
Can be used to expand in store catalog offerings
Standardization Initiatives• Packaging• Media• Security• Reporting
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Copy Protected CDs
Includes copy protection, secure burning capability
Capable for use with both Windows media and iTunes
Proven in Europe past two years, significant US rollout 2005 (Sony BMG)
Technology evolving to address consumer expectations
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Win The Message War
We all need to be message ambassadors to win this culture war.
The Court has given us a gift - moral clarity has been established. Seize the moment.
We need to demonstrate adaptability to move debate beyond issues of “models” to the core questions of property and right versus wrong.
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The Solution Depends on Everyone Doing Their Part
Music FansAppreciate and respect copyright lawEnjoy Music
ISPsEducate: what’s legal & illegal; advertise responsiblyCooperate with copyright owners
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The Solution Depends on Everyone Doing Their Part
Recording IndustryMeet legitimate consumer demands; Foster legitimate online systemsWork with technology community; Educate
Congress / GovernmentHighlight and enforce the law; Protect U.S. Intellectual PropertyEducate and protect consumers
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The Solution Depends on Everyone Doing Their Part
Artists & PublishersAllow for digital distribution of works
Technology CompaniesManage interoperability issuesEnable seamless consumer experiences
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The Solution Depends on Everyone Doing Their Part
ParentsTalk to your children about what is legal activity onlineBe aware of kids’ online activity
File Sharing NetworksGo legitFilters for illegal material
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The Solution Depends onEveryone Doing Their PartEducators
Teach importance of copyright; Basics of the law and Right v. WrongAcademic institutions should value “thought”
RetailersGet the message outSell only legitimate productsListen and respond to customers
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I’m Optimistic About The Future
• Labels and retailers are experimenting to meet consumer expectations
• Kids increasingly are getting the right signals from their parents, ISPs and their schools
• Government is assuming a bigger role in enforcement and education
• Technology is making music more ubiquitous than ever –fostering demand
• Lawsuits and the Grokster decision, have clarified the law and affirmed the significance of our “property”
• Our music family has pulled together well to fight for our future