Revitalising Ireland’s Towns

Prof. Cathal O’DonoghueHead, Teagasc Rural Economy Development Programme

Secretary, Burren Lowlands DevelopmentFormer CEO, Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas

BurrenLowlands

Local Economy

Demographics

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

OpenCountryside

Towns(1500-2999)

Towns(5000-9999)

WaterfordCity

LimerickCity

Dublin City

Aged < 15

Slightly younger profile both amongst children and over 65 ~Dependency Ratio above national average

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

Open C

ountry

side

Villag

es (2

00-1

499)

Towns

(150

0-29

99)

Towns

(300

0-49

99)

Towns

(500

0-99

99)

Towns

(100

00+)

Wat

erfo

rd C

ity

Galw

ay C

ity

Lim

eric

k City

Cork

City

Dublin

City

County

Dubl

in

Net Migration

Net inward migration as people moved out of cities

Education

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Open C

ountry

side

Villag

es (2

00-1

499)

Towns

(150

0-29

99)

Towns

(300

0-49

99)

Towns

(500

0-99

99)

Towns

(100

00+)

Wat

erfo

rd C

ity

Galw

ay C

ity

Lim

eric

k City

Cork

City

Dublin

City

County

Dubl

in

Tertiary Education

Education rate lower

Labour Market Employment Rate

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Unemployment

National Average Employment RateAbove Average Unemployment Rate ~ age profile

Economic Growth vs Income Growth (since 2000)

Income Growth

State

Borde

r

Midl

andW

est

Dublin

Mid-

East

Mid-

Wes

t

South

-Eas

t

South

-Wes

t0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2000-2012

Economic Growth

State

Borde

r

Midl

andW

est

Dublin

Mid-

East

Mid-

Wes

t

South

-Eas

t

South

-Wes

t0

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

2000-2012

Economic Growth (where activity is) more concentrated in Urban areas (and West). Income Growth (households) more dispersed- Difference due to commuting etc

Economic Growth vs Income Growth (since 2000)

Income Growth

State

Midl

and

Dublin

Mid-

Wes

t

South

-Wes

t

-0.2-0.18-0.16-0.14-0.12-0.1

-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02

0

2007-2012

Economic Growth

State

Midl

and

Dublin

Mid-

Wes

t

South

-Wes

t

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

2007-2012

West fared best since crash

Economic Crisis

Impact of the economic downturn on Unemployment Rate(% Change) – Type of Area

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Ope

n Cou

ntry

Villag

e(20

0-14

99)

Town(1

500-

2999

)

Town(3

000-

4999

)

Town(5

000-

9999

)

Town(1

0000

+)

Wat

erfo

rd C

ity

Gal

way C

ity

Limer

ick

City

Cork

City

Dublin

City

(incl

. DL)

Dublin

Coun

ty

Natio

n

Small and Medium sized towns biggest impact – change in unemployment

Industry and Structural Change

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Agri Manuf Constr Comm

Transp Hotel Communic Fin

Prof Admin Public Educ

Health Other

Towns < 10000 – much more reliant on Agri, Manufacturing, Construction- Most at risk in future in terms of employment- Challenge for rural areas dominant sectors are those that have lost the most

jobs - Thus significant structural issues

Youth Migration

Source David Meredith

Large emigration – particularly from rural towns

Youth Employment

Dark colours youth employment blackspots

Source David Meredith

Poverty and Jobless Households

Consistent poverty

Children in consistent poverty

Jobless households

Cities & suburbs 4.9% 8.1% 19.8%

Towns and envi with pop=>5000

9.6% 13.2% 29%

Towns and envi with pop 1000<=<5000

10.1% 14.9% 31.5%

Mixed urban / rural areas 7.5% 8.1% 24.6%

Rural 6.5% 8.3% 24.3%

State 6.9% 9.3% 24%

Small Towns- Double Poverty- One third of working age households without employment – Key Cross- cutting Challenge a hard challenge

Variability across TownsNo Average Town

Rural Towns Index

Focus on “Economic Strength” Combination of Unemployment

Rate and Net Migration Rate in 2011

Low Rank ~ Strong High Rank ~ Weak

Not necessarily an East-West Issue Weakest towns (Red)

Furthest from Cities (in general) Commuting-in towns Lower Skills

Source David Meredith

Location by Strength

  Strongest 2 3 4 Weakest Share of Population

Border 0.07 0.28 0.28 0.16 0.22 0.17

East 0.26 0.16 0.14 0.26 0.19 0.08

Midlands 0.07 0.16 0.24 0.11 0.42 0.1

Mid-West 0.23 0.16 0.1 0.27 0.24 0.12

SE 0.04 0.16 0.24 0.28 0.29 0.18

SW 0.27 0.23 0.29 0.17 0.04 0.16

West 0.31 0.29 0.02 0.11 0.28 0.17

West one of the highest share of “weakest” townsWest has highest share of “strongest” towns

Characteristics by Strength National Average = 100

Unemployment Rate

Old:Young

TertEd Share

Distance to Closest Hub

Net Migration

Share of Net Jobs

Strongest 75 96 124 76 0.23 -420

2 90 101 102 85 0.05 -130

3 99 97 103 106 0.03 171

4 107 102 90 113 -0.02 142

Weakest 125 103 84 124 -0.04 577

Stronger towns have lower unemployment, slightly younger, better educated, closer to hub, commuting outWeaker – opposite –however the local economic hub for rural areas

Post 2012

Economic Growth (Moving Average, Constant Prices)

Source: CSO National Accounts

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202020000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

GNP pc GDP pc

After sharp decline and bouncing along bottom, increasing evidence of a recovery- More recently improvement in personal consumption and

construction.- Economy now back to where it was before peak

Change in Live Register

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Rural Urban

Since trough 2011

Since peak 2007

Live Register - Rural Areas up 134% in 2015 of 2007- Down 21% since 2011- Urban Areas up 104% in 2015 since 2007- Down 19% since 2011

Top and Bottom Live Register Recovery Counties

Rank Males Females

1 Meath Limerick

2 Limerick Meath

3 Cork Cork

4 Galway Clare

5 Cavan Galway

Rank Males Females

27 Monaghan Monaghan

26 Wicklow Laois

25 Laois Carlow

24 Carlow Westmeath

23 Offaly Roscommon

Top Bottom

Larger urban centres and commuting zones like Galway (except)

Midlands slowest recovery in unemployment

Strategy

National Spatial Strategy

Recognise Quite a young population in towns, even in more remote areas

Skills level often lower, particularly in weakest towns

Many have lost jobs Higher unemployment, Jobless Households

Negative Equity Likely to remain so for the foreseeable future The issue will not go away Long term challenge for services and economic development

National Spatial Strategy

Need for public policy to counter balance natural economic forces

Balanced spatial development not to be ashamed of There is a role for the state in countering economic forces Both Nationally and within Counties

Economic forces will tend to improve areas of relative advantage State Prioritise areas of disadvantage

Existing NSS weak on towns vital to have a national policy for these area Nationally as many people live in rural towns as in Greater Dublin!!

CEDRA

Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas – What?

CEDRA Objective Develop a strategy guiding medium-term economic development of the Rural Areas

for the period to 2025. Voluntary Commission Chaired by Pat Spillane Established November 2012 Report Presented to the Minister in November 2013.

Minister for Rural Affairs appointed June 2014 with objective of implementing CEDRA report

CEDRA Inter-Departmental Group chaired by Minister for Rural Affairs, Ann Phelan – July 2014

Delivering Rural Economic Development

Key Challenges Short Term Create more Employment in Rural Areas Long Term Reskill and restructure nature of employment

Key Themes Rural Economic Development Cross-cutting delivery Improve Coordination of Policy and Programme Implementation

Challenging Department and Agency business plans v.v. rural economic development

No Silver Bullet Lots of Small Steps

Areas of Potential Job Creation Rural Resources (Agriculture, Marine, Tourism, Creative, Renewable) Exporting Sector (FDI, Export sector, Commuting into cities) Domestic Demand (Services supplying rural economy)

Rural Economic Development Zones

Rural Economic Development Zones Functional Areas Bottom up integrated zones Plan prepared locally Leveraging agency and government task force REDZ Announced this week

Recommendations

5. Improving Human Resources and Skills Multi-agency approach to reskilling and up skilling of rural dwellers

should be employed taking into consideration availability of and access to opportunities

Increase skill levels in rural areas to facilitate access to high value jobs and to re-skill those who lost construction jobs, particularly in Food, ICT, Sales and Language training

Improve access to higher education opportunities through greater use of ICT in “super VECs” linked to Institute’s of Technology

National skills strategies to reflect rural differentiated needs Development of localised skill strategies

Recommendations

6. Capitalising on our Rural Resources Support national strategies to expand industries based upon rural

resources, Food, Marine, Tourism, Creative, Green Business sectors

Greater focus on generating value added across supply chains Acknowledge the importance of the cooperative model in supply chain

integration and development Deliver more recreation and tourism based private value from Agri-

Environmental Schemes Increase FDI in Food sector. Give more responsibility to IDA Develop an Agri risk management financial industry Increase Speciality Foods sector and its export focus by Teagasc/EI/BB

Food Works and Related initiatives

Recommendations

7. Re-energise Rural Tourism Development of Local Destinations by new Local Economic

Development Structures Greater strategic planning in relation to Rural Tourism and a higher focus

amongst Development Agencies Development of key national infrastructures such as long distance

cycleways and the Wild Atlantic Way Exploit Heritage Local Capacity Building necessary to support Rural Tourism

Rural Tourism

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

1990 2000 2010

Share Outside of Dublin

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1990 2000 2010

Total Tourist Visits

International Tourist Visitors Share of Tourism Revenue Outside Dublin

More than doubling tourism numbersShare of revenue outside Dublin declining

Significant room for improvement in rural tourism. There is huge potential in the area if we can build the right product and promote it to attract tourists to the area

Re-energise Rural Tourism

Development of Local Destinations by new Local Economic Development Structures The Gathering emphasised potential

Development of key national infrastructures such as long distance cycleways and the Wild Atlantic Way how to gain more from it?

Build upon cultural and heritage strength Heritage, Ecology, Culture, Landscape

Local Capacity Building necessary to support Rural Tourism Big Challenges given localised nature

Generating Economic Growth in Rural Towns

Objectives of policy need to be multifaceted with a focus on Make towns more attractive to live in, visit and work Make it easier to do business Increase consumer demand and sentiment Improve access to finance of SME’s

Generating Economic Growth in Rural Towns

Develop a Small Towns Stimulus Programme to mitigate the worst impact of the Economic Downturn on Small and Medium Sized Rural Towns

Specifically the Small Towns Stimulus Programme would Build upon local strengths including Heritage Improve the physical architecture and appearance of small towns

by create targeted incentives to facilitate town and village renewal and refurbishment.

Make it easier to do business by taking some of the fixed costs It would leverage complementary actions from different agencies

Recommendations

9. Mobilising Community Capacity for Economic Development Continuation of a Community Led Local Development approach to

the delivery of rural development initiatives advocated in Putting People First.

Development of a programme of capacity building Rural Community Leadership Programme for rural communities initiated and implemented by local government in partnership with local development structures.

Build capacity of local communities, business and individuals to generate opportunities locally

Local Development

Local Economic and Community Plan

Development requires a different mindset Taking risks Proactive not passive Focus on finding solutions Need to identify strengths and optimising them

Build community capacity Top-Down will not work in the long term Communities don’t necessarily have the skill set

Capacity Building Necessary

Spread the load LCDC’s need to work Agencies need to Partner together Jobless households is a multi-dimensional problem

Recognise specific needs of cross-county boundary areas Needs cross county coordination

Local Economic and Community Plan

Local Authorities and Local Development Agencies have a really important role in Local Economic Development

Critical time in the recovery to get regional balance right and avoid problems of the past

Be brave and ambitious

Community Led Local Development

Community Leadership Development

Development will be more effective if communities involved

More Sustainable

More Cost Effective Communities can build upon local

Community Leadership Development Network

Pilot Programme in County Galway (Partners – Galway CoCo, GRD, GRETB, Teagasc)

Form groups in each RED zone in Galway Deliver Community Leadership Development Programme to members of

each RED group + Supporting Materials. Galway Chamber Mentors to assist in background analysis on zone. Data provided by Teagasc

RED teams develop SWOT analysis, facilitated by Galway Chamber Mentors

Form Community Economic Development Support Network Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED SWOT

analyses and to generate learnings from initial SWOT analysis Each RED to host a public meeting to develop initial strategic plan for RED

on the basis of SWOT and Analysis. Methodology employed by Burren Lowlands to be followed

Community Leadership Development Network

Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED Strategic plans and to generate learnings from Strategic plans

Identify funding sources and in particular opportunities for LEADER funding support/Rural Towns and Village Renewal Scheme for Strategic Plans

Prepare in conjunction with Galway Chamber mentors Business Cases for funding

Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED Programme Business plans and to generate learnings from Business Plans

Submit Funding Bids On-going network activities in relation to learnings and collaboration

between groups

Community Leadership Development Programme

The objective of a Community Leadership Development Programme is to provide basic skills for community leaders and groups to facilitate economic development and to implement plans for action. What do you want to do - Ideas generation Working with people and groups work (e.g. the methodology of

facilitating, animating, motivating, and generating consensus within their communities)

Preparing a plan and project management Leadership and Strategy in a Community Setting The political and public policy process Understanding the socio-economics of your community and accessing

information on it Marketing and Promoting your initiative Financing your project and monitoring the finances Advocacy and Campaigning

Beautiful Burren

Lowlands

www.burrenlowlands.ie