review of unep modelling results applying slcp mitigation measures in asia and discussion of key...
TRANSCRIPT
Review of UNEP modelling results applying SLCP mitigation measures in Asia
and discussion of key priorities for Southeast and Northeast Asia
Kevin Hicks and Johan Kuylenstierna
High Level Sub-regional Consultation on Advancing Action on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)
In Southeast and Northeast Asia 19 Aug 2014, Bangkok, Thailand
• Introduction to UNEP Assessments and the SLCP 16 mitigation options for black carbon, methane and co-emitted species
• Benefits of measures by region for human health, crops and climate change
• Conclusions and some thoughts on the way forward
Talk Outline
Two key reports that brought political attention to SLCPs
Available at: http://www.unep.org/ccac/
Black carbon measures• addressing emissions from incomplete
combustion
- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs
Methane measures • reducing methane emissions
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions and achieve multiple benefits
No technical breakthroughsThese measures already implemented in many countries
Cost-effective
• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission changes
• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2
• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit
The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions
Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from oil and gas
Recovery from livestock manure / feedRecovery from landfill
Recovery from wastewater
Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage
The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions
Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF
Cooking with clean fuel
Pellet biomass heating stovesImproved brick kilns
Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring
Effect of measures on global emissions projected in 2030
relative to Reference emissions in 2030
9 BC measures fully implemented in 20307 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030
Effect of 16 measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
9 BC measures reduce
�80% of BC
Reference: CH4 increases 7 CH4 measures reduce �25% of CH4 (2005); or
� 40% relative to 2030
BC measures reduce
CO
This integrative approach allows benefits of measures to be assessed in terms of climate, human health and food
security
The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
recovery from coal mines
oil and gas production
municipal waste
gas pipelines
Relatively low uncertainty regarding temperature impact
Intermittent aeration of continuouslyflooded rice paddies
Recovery from livestock manure / feed
The share of global temperature reduction from implementing black carbon measures
Bigger uncertainty for impact on climate
Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of Rainfall Patterns
• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to warming of the atmosphere occurs
• This drives regional weather pattern changes
Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the two models
2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from reducing outdoor PM alone
Approx. equal number avoided
from reducing indoor air pollution
2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM
S, W & C Asia 1.15
million deaths/yr
Africa 200
thousanddeaths/yr
Pre
mat
ure
mo
rtal
ity
avo
ided
(1
000s
of
dea
ths)
Health Benefits by Country
Avoid loss of 52 million tonnes (within a range of 30–140
million tonnes), 1–4 per cent, of the global production of
maize, rice, soybean and wheat each year
Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan
Clean airAir with ambient ozoneImpact of
the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields
This analysis can be linked to specific policy measures in different regions
Global crop yield loss avoided due methane measures
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production (coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency
SLCPs as a way to achieve SDGs
Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely linked to many pressing development needs:
• Health
• Sustainable energy access
• Food security• Urban development: waste, sanitation/
sewerage, and sustainable transport
• Adverse climate change impacts
National level: Fast start actions
Why national action?
• Most of health benefits related to air pollution reduction close to emission sources.
• Integrate measures with local sustainable development• Integrate measures with national climate policy.
Options for fast action
• Target obvious SLCP sources for immediate action• Consolidate actions in National Action Plan
Specific Action on Methane
• Near-term benefits will only be realised if specific action on methane is taken
• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions will benefit from improved health - avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; +INDOOR!; crop yields - avoid > 50 million tonnes loss every year
• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the warming projected by the Reference Scenario
• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. Asian rainfall patterns
• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC target, but contingent on ambitious CO2 reductions, starting now (complementary strategies; not alternatives)
• The identified measures are all currently in use and many measures achieve cost savings over time.
• much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve the benefits outlined.
General Conclusions
• Global analysis shows that this region can potentially achieve the largest social and economic benefits from tackling SLCPs
• Need to understand regional specificities and the potential for integration of SLCP measures with existing policies
• Large health benefits for indoor and outdoor pollution can be obtained by tackling residential combustion sources in the region
• Ongoing policy to control NOx and NMVOC emissions to control the peak ground level ozone problem in Asia should be carefully integrated with the SLCP measures to obtain greatest benefits in each sector
• Mitigation options and policies for sectors that produce emissions that have short and long-term impacts on climate should be carefully designed to avoid tradeoffs
Way forward in NE and SE Asia
Translating the Science into Policy and Action
http://www.unep.org/ccac/