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AUTO HOME BUSINESS Review of Performance Q1-2017 Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) Tuesday, May 2 nd , 2017

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Page 1: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

AUTO HOME BUSINESS

Review of PerformanceQ1-2017Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC)

Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017

Page 2: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

Charles BrindamourChief Executive Officer

Page 3: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Important notes:� Unless otherwise noted, DPW refers to DPW normalized for the effect of multi-year policies, excluding industry pools (referred to as “DPW” in this presentation). This normalized measure is not

significantly different from the comparable IFRS-based measure given that the impact of multi-year policies is no longer material to our results. See Table 26 of the Q1-2017 MD&A for the reconciliation.

� All underwriting results and related ratios exclude the MYA, unless otherwise noted.

� The expense and general expense ratios are presented herein net of other underwriting revenues.

� Catastrophe claims are any one claim, or group of claims, equal to or greater than $7.5 million, related to a single event.

� A large loss is defined as a single claim larger than $0.25 million but smaller than the CAT threshold of $7.5 million.

� A non-catastrophe weather event (“non-CAT weather event”) is a group of claims which is considered significant but that is smaller than the CAT threshold of $7.5 million, related to a single weather event.

� All references to “total excess capital” in this presentation include excess capital in the P&C insurance subsidiaries at 170% MCT plus excess capital outside of the P&C insurance subsidiaries, unless otherwise noted.

� Unless otherwise noted, market share and market related data are based on the latest available data (Q4-2016) from MSA Research Inc. (“MSA”) and excludes LIoyd’s Underwriters Canada, Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, Saskatchewan Government Insurance, Saskatchewan Auto Fund, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company. MSA data excludes certain Quebec regulated entities. Market share and market positioning reflect the impact of announced or completed acquisitions and are therefore presented on a pro forma basis.

• Net operating income per share of $0.90 reflects lower underwriting income and strong growth in distribution income.

• Combined ratio of 98.2%, as higher weather-related claims and lower favourable prior year claims development offset solid underlying performance.

• Premiums grew 4% driven by personal and specialty lines.

• Strong financial position with over $1 billion of total excess capital and 8% growth in book value per share.

Key points & highlights

Page 4: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

1.4 pts

4.4 pts

5.8 pts

DPW growth (includingindustry pools)

Combined ratio (includingMYA)

ROE (annualized)

4

Outperforming the industry in 2016

Industry data: IFC estimate based on MSA Research Inc. Please refer to Important Notes on page 3 of this presentation for further information.1 IFC’s ROE corresponds to the AROE.

Summary

• Our growth outperformance was largely driven by our growth initiatives and the acquisition of CDI.

• Our combined ratio outperformance was mainly driven by strong results in property lines, offset by weaker results in our auto lines of business.

• Our ROE outperformance is above our objective of 5 points and was mainly driven by our underwriting outperformance.

1

Page 5: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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P&C industry 12-month outlookWe remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment

• In the current interest rate environment, we estimate that the industry’s pre-tax investment yield will continue to decline slightly, given its asset mix and duration.

• Industry capital levels could be negatively impacted if volatility resulting from global events puts downward pressure on market values.

• Global capital requirements are continuing to influence the asset allocation decisions of many companies.

• We expect low to mid single-digit growth in personal auto, as we continue to believe that claims cost inflation should lead to further rate increases in all markets.

• We expect mid to upper single-digit growth in personal property in current firm market conditions, as companies adjust to changing weather patterns.

• We expect low single-digit growth in commercial lines, as competitive conditions and difficult economic conditions in Western Canada continue to pressure industry growth.

• We expect growth at a low to mid single-digit rate.

• Overall, we expect the industry’s ROE to improve but remain slightly below its long-term average of 10% over the next 12 months.

Marketenvironment

Overall

Capitalmarkets

Page 6: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Premiums grew by 4%, driven by personal and specialty lines

1.1%

2.1%

6.4%

9.5%10.0%

10.5%

7.0%

5.8%

4.3%

4.9%

Q4-1

4

Q1-1

5

Q2-1

5

Q3-1

5

Q4-1

5

Q1-1

6

Q2-1

6

Q3-1

6

Q4-1

6

Q1-1

7

Personal LinesYear-over-year DPW growth

Commercial LinesYear-over-year DPW growth

5.7%

4.1%

4.9%

4.0%

2.9%

-0.8%

0.0%

1.7%

-0.2%

1.2%

Q4-1

4

Q1-1

5

Q2-1

5

Q3-1

5

Q4-1

5

Q1-1

6

Q2-1

6

Q3-1

6

Q4-1

6

Q1-1

7

Contribution from CDI

Page 7: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Personal lines

Pers

on

al A

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Pers

on

al

Pro

pert

y

(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Change

DPW 414 383 8%

Underwriting income 35 78 (55)%

Combined ratio 92.8% 82.9% 9.9 pts

• DPW grew 3% due to growth initiatives and rate increases, offsetting the impact of slower unit growth from profitability actions.

• Combined ratio of 102.6% was impacted by higher weather-related claims frequency and lower favourable PYD. Profitability initiatives involving rate, underwriting and claims actions to address cost inflation are well underway, with the majority of the benefit expected in the latter half of 2017.

• Strong DPW growth of 8% due to rate increases and growth initiatives in favourable market conditions.

• Combined ratio of 92.8% reflects a very strong underlying performance which was offset by 11.5 points of CAT losses, primarily from severe wind events in Central and Atlantic Canada.

79.2% 71.5%

23.4% 24.9%

Q1-2017 Q1-2016

Combined Ratio Breakdown

ExpenseRatio

ClaimsRatio

60.3% 48.3%

32.5%34.6%

Q1-2017 Q1-2016

Combined Ratio Breakdown

ExpenseRatio

ClaimsRatio

(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Change

DPW 803 777 3%

Underwriting income (loss) (24) 32 nm

Combined ratio 102.6% 96.4% 6.2 pts

Page 8: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Commercial lines

Co

mm

erc

ial

P&

C

• DPW decreased 2% as difficult economic conditions in Western Canada and continued competitive markets offset strong growth in specialty lines.

• The 95.8% combined ratio included 7 points of catastrophe losses from fires and wind events, offsetting very strong underlying performance driven by ongoing profitability initiatives.

(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Change

DPW 370 377 (2)%

Underwriting income 17 31 (45)%

Combined ratio 95.8% 92.4% 3.4 pts

56.5% 53.1%

39.3% 39.3%

Q1-2017 Q1-2016

Combined Ratio Breakdown

ExpenseRatio

ClaimsRatio

Co

mm

erc

ial

Au

to

• DPW grew 9% led by strong growth in specialty lines.

• Combined ratio improved 1.3 points to 96.2% on higher favourable PYD and lower commissions and general expenses.

(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Change

DPW 157 144 9%

Underwriting income 7 4 75%

Combined ratio 96.2% 97.5% (1.3) pts

70.7% 69.0%

25.5% 28.5%

Q1-2017 Q1-2016

Combined Ratio Breakdown

ExpenseRatio

ClaimsRatio

Page 9: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Investing in growthB

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Our objective to build household names for our core brands is progressing well, supported by new advertising campaigns for Intact Insurance and belairdirect. We continue to make significant progress on co-branding with brokers showing an increasing appetite to be aligned with the Intact Insurance brand.

On April 3, 2017, we launched our Intact Service Centre in Montreal, our fourth Service Centre in Canada. Easy, efficient and convenient for the customer, the Intact Service Centre means everything about the claim is handled at a single location.

We improved our telematics offering for Intact Insurance customers in Alberta by launching a mobile app, allowing good drivers to save on car insurance without having to install any hardware in their vehicles. The app is also available in Quebec and parts of Ontario, with additional rollouts expected this year.

Page 10: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Key takeaways

We continue our shareholder-friendly approach to capital management

Our strong financial position enables us to take advantage of growth opportunities

We have a sustainable competitive advantage versus the industry due to our disciplined approach and operational strength

Page 11: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

Louis MarcotteSVP Finance & Chief Financial Officer

Page 12: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Q1-2017 financial highlights

• Premiums grew 4% driven by personal and specialty lines. Rate increases and growth initiatives led to growth in personal lines. In commercial lines, our efforts to grow speciality lines mitigated the impact of difficult economic conditions in Western Canada and competitive market conditions.

• We delivered a combined ratio of 98.2%, 5.7 points worse than the same period last year due to an increase in weather-related claims (including 3.3 points of additional CAT losses), as well as lower favourable PYD.

1 Refer to Section 15- Non-IFRS financial measures of the MD&A

(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Change

Direct premiums written 1,744 1,681 4%

Underwriting income 35 145 (110)

Net investment income 105 104 1

Combined ratio 98.2% 92.5% 5.7 pts

Net operating income per share to common shareholders

$0.90 $1.46 (38)%

Earnings per share to common shareholders $1.08 $1.11 (3)%

Operating return on common shareholders equity for the last 12 months

10.6% 16.7% (6.1) pts

1

Page 13: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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High quality investment portfolio

• Nearly 97% of fixed-income securities are rated ‘A-’ or better.

• 81% of preferred shares are rated at least ‘P2L’.

• No exposure to leveraged securities.

Investment mix (net of hedging positions and financial liabilities

related to investments)

$14.2 billion – strategically managed

Net investment gains (losses)(in $ millions, except as otherwise noted)

Q1-17 Q1-16 Change

Gains on fixed-income strategies

5 10 (5)

Gains (losses) on equity strategies and related derivatives

66 (27) 93

Other gains (losses) 4 (3) 7

Net investment gains (losses) 75 (20) 95

Fixed -income

strategies70%

Common equity

strategies15%

Preferred shares10%

Cash and short-term

notes2%

Loans3%

Page 14: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Strategic capital management

Maintain leverage ratio (target 20% debt-to-total capital)

Increase dividends

Debt-to-capital ratio

Quarterly common share dividends (per share)

Manage volatility

Invest in growth opportunities

Share buybacks $0.1

6 $0.2

5

$0.2

7

$0.3

1

$0.3

2

$0.3

4

$0.3

7

$0.4

0

$0.4

4

$0.4

8

$0.5

3

$0.5

8

$0.6

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2-17

11.8%14.3%

22.9%

18.9% 18.7% 17.3% 16.6% 18.6% 18.5%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-17

Page 15: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Strong financial position

• Our BVPS increased 8% from a year ago to $43.14.

• We ended the quarter in a very strong capital position, with an MCT of 223% and total excess capital of over $1 billion.

• Debt-to-capital ratio of 18.5%, close to our target level of 20%.

• Operating ROE of 10.6%, despite $452 million of catastrophe losses over the last 12 months.

Page 16: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Visit our online annual report!

Please visit our online annual report to view videos, interactive features and additional information on how we are preparing for the future.

reports.intactfc.com/2016

Page 17: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Contact us

Media Inquiries

Stephanie Sorensen

Director, External Communications

1 (416) 344-8027

[email protected]

General Inquiries

Intact Financial Corporation700 University AvenueToronto, ON M5G 0A1

1 (416) 341-1464

1-877-341-1464 (toll-free in N.A.)

[email protected]

Investor Relations Inquiries

[email protected]

1 (416) 941-5336

1-866-778-0774 (toll-free in N.A.)

Samantha Cheung

Vice President, Investor Relations

1 (416) 344-8004

[email protected]

Maida Sit

Director, Investor Relations

1(416) 341-1464 ext. 45153

[email protected]

Page 18: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Forward-looking statementsCertain of the statements included in this presentation about the Company’s current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements. The words “may”, “will”, “would”, “should”, “could”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “trends”, “indications”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “likely”, “potential” or the negative or other variations of these words or other similar or comparable words or phrases, are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by management based on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Many factors could cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements or future events or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, the following factors: the Company’s ability to implement its strategy or operate its business as management currently expects; its ability to accurately assess the risks associated with the insurance policies that the Company writes; unfavourable capital market developments or other factors which may affect the Company’s investments, floating rate securities and funding obligations under its pension plans; the cyclical nature of the P&C insurance industry; management’s ability to accurately predict future claims frequency and severity, including in the Ontario line of business, as well as the evaluation of losses relating to the Fort McMurray wildfires, catastrophe losses caused by severe weather and other weather-related losses; government regulations designed to protect policyholders and creditors rather than investors; litigation and regulatory actions; periodic negative publicity regarding the insurance industry; intense competition; the Company’s reliance on brokers and third parties to sell its products to clients and provide services to the Company; the Company’s ability to successfully pursue its acquisition strategy; the Company’s ability to execute its business strategy; the Company’s ability to achieve synergies arising from successful integration plans relating to acquisitions, as well as management's estimates and expectations in relation to resulting accretion, internal rate of return and debt-to-capital ratio; the Company’s participation in the Facility Association (a mandatory pooling arrangement among all industry participants) and similar mandated risk-sharing pools; terrorist attacks and ensuing events; the occurrence of catastrophe events, including a major earthquake; the Company’s ability to maintain its financial strength and issuer credit ratings; access to debt financing and the Company's ability to compete for large commercial business; the Company’s ability to alleviate risk through reinsurance; the Company’s ability to successfully manage credit risk (including credit risk related to the financial health of reinsurers); the Company’s ability to contain fraud and/or abuse; the Company’s reliance on information technology and telecommunications systems and potential failure of or disruption to those systems, including evolving cyber-attack risk; the Company’s dependence on key employees; changes in laws or regulations; general economic, financial and political conditions; the Company’s dependence on the results of operations of its subsidiaries; the volatility of the stock market and other factors affecting the Company’s share price; and future sales of a substantial number of its common shares.

All of the forward-looking statements included in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements and those made in the section entitled Risk management (Sections 17-21) of our MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2016. These factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the Company. These factors should, however, be considered carefully. Although the forward-looking statements are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, the Company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, investors should ensure the preceding information is carefully considered. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements made herein. The Company and management have no intention and undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Page 19: Review of Performance Q1-2017...P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment •

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Disclaimer

This Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.

The information contained in this Presentation concerning the Company does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that a prospective purchaser or investor may desire to have in evaluating whether or not to make an investment in the Company. The information is qualified entirely by reference to the Company’s publicly disclosed information.

No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its the directors, officers or employees as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for such information or opinions. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide the attendees with access to any additional information or to update this Presentation or to correct any inaccuracies in, or omissions from, this Presentation that may become apparent. The information and opinions contained in this Presentation are provided as at the date of this Presentation. The contents of this Presentation are not to be construed as legal, financial or tax advice. Each prospective purchaser should contact his, her or its own legal adviser, independent financial adviser or tax adviser for legal, financial or tax advice.

The Company uses both International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and certain non-IFRS measures to assess performance. Non-IFRS measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. Management analyzes performance based on underwriting ratios such as combined, expense, loss and claims ratios, MCT, and debt-to-capital, as well as other non-IFRS financial measures, namely DPW, Underlying current year loss ratio, Underwriting income, NOI, NOIPS, OROE, ROE, AROE, Non-operating results, AEPS, Cash flow available for investment activities, and Market-based yield. These measures and other insurance related terms are defined in the Company’s glossary available on the Intact Financial Corporation web site at www.intactfc.com in the “Investor Relations” section. Additional information about the Company, including the Annual Information Form, may be found online on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.