Revenue Update

A Briefing for the

Virginia Association of Government Accountants

John R. Layman

Director/Chief Economist

Office of Revenue Forecasting

Virginia Department of Taxation

March 19, 2008

• Due to the increased uncertainty about growth prospects for the U.S. and Virginia economies, the Governor called an interim meeting of the Governor’s Advisory Board of Economists (GABE).

• At its February meeting, the GABE reviewed the January standard and alternative low-growth forecasts for Virginia.– In the standard forecast, the Virginia economy was expected to

grow near trend over the forecast horizon, similar to the October forecast on which the introduced budget was based.

– In the alternative low-growth scenario, a deeper housing recession and high oil prices result in a significant slowdown in employment and income growth, particularly in fiscal year 2009.

• Overall, the GABE recommended the “most probable” path for the economy as somewhere in between the January standard and low-growth scenarios.– None of the GABE members recommended the January standard

forecast, with three recommending the alternative low-growth scenario in the short term.

Mid-Session Revenue Forecast

1

Key Virginia Economic IndicatorsOctober Standard and GABE Forecasts

(annual percent change)

2

Fiscal Year 10-year06 07 08 09 10 Average

EmploymentOctober Std. ('07) 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.8GABE 1.1 1.0 1.8

Personal IncomeOctober Std. ('07) 6.4 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.0GABE 5.2 5.4 6.2

Wages & SalariesOctober Std. ('07) 6.2 5.4 5.5 5.2 6.0 6.2GABE 5.2 4.8 5.9

Average WageOctober Std. ('07) 4.0 3.9 4.4 3.7 4.1 4.4GABE 4.0 3.7 4.0

• The GABE economic outlook served as the basis for the February GABE revenue forecast that was presented to the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE).

• Overall, the GACRE supported GABE’s “most probable” path for the Virginia economy.

• Based on comments of members of the GACRE, one additional revision was made to the February GABE General Fund revenue forecast.

– The sales tax growth outlook was reduced from the standard to the low-growth for FY09 and FY10. The downward revisions reflect weaker prospects for housing, specifically a delay in the recovery from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009.

Mid-Session Revenue Forecast (cont’d)

3

Summary of the February Post-GACREGeneral Fund Revenue Forecast

4

* The February Post-GACRE forecast is based on the January 2008 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation and incorporates input from the GABE and GACRE and revenue collection data through January.

Notes:(a) Adjusted for the Estate Tax repeal, underlying growth is 1.4%. (b) Adjusted for the Estate Tax repeal and HB 3202 (Transportation Plan), underlying growth is 4.1%.

Major Source

Withholding 56.2 % 5.2 % $ (31.4) 5.5 % $ (95.3) 6.3 % $ (72.4)

Nonwithholding 19.0 3.2 (188.6) 6.5 (222.3) 8.4 (230.2)

Refunds (10.4) 9.6 28.6 4.3 (12.0) 2.2 (9.8)

Net Individual 64.8 % 3.9 % $ (248.6) 6.0 % $ (305.6) 7.6 % $ (292.8)

Sales 19.5 % 1.6 % $ (39.6) 4.2 % $ (73.7) 5.1 % $ (96.6)

Corporate 4.6 (20.5) (48.8) 0.6 (40.2) 3.2 (58.2)

Wills (Recordation) 3.2 (15.0) (24.8) (23.1) (68.6) 9.0 (74.7)

Insurance 2.5 8.7 15.0 (29.5) 10.6 7.6 11.4

All Other Revenue 5.3 (1.8) 7.5 (18.7) (42.6) 5.8 (21.3)

Total 100.0 % 1.2 % $ (339.3) 2.2 % $ (520.1) 6.8 % $ (532.2)

% Growth

Fiscal Year 2010

% Growth $ Change

Fiscal Year 2009 (b)

$ Change

As a % of Total

Revenues

Fiscal Year 2008 (a)

% Growth $ Change

* FY08-10 is forecast

Total General FundFiscal Year Percent Change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Percent Change

Total General Fund

5

The Governor Is Proposing An Additional $162.4 Million Withdrawal From The Revenue Stabilization Fund In Fiscal Year 2008…

80 85

157

224

361

575

472

247

340

482

1,065

1,190

936996

1,039

716

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

History Forecast

Millions of Dollars

Revenue Stabilization Fund -- June 30 BalanceFY 1995-07 Actual and FY 2008-10 Forecast

(millions of dollars)

6

National Economy

• National indicators continue to depict deteriorating economic conditions, as the housing shock and credit crunch spread through the economy. Some analysts believe the economy has entered a recession.

– The job market weakened significantly in February – payroll employment fell by 63,000 jobs for the month, and January’s loss was revised up from 17,000 to 22,000.

– The manufacturing sector contracted in February. The Institute of Supply Management index fell from 50.7 to 48.3, the second reading below 50 in the past three months and its lowest level since April 2003.

– The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence dropped from 87.3 to 75.0 in February, its lowest level since November 1993. Both the expectations and current conditions components fell sharply.

Current Economic Conditions

7

Virginia Economy

• The Virginia Employment Commission has released re-benchmarked employment data for calendar years 2006 and 2007. The revised data indicate that job growth in Virginia was slower than earlier estimates had indicated. Payroll employment increased 0.9 percent during calendar year 2007, below the rate of 1.5 percent growth previously reported.

• Statewide, employment grew by 0.7 percent in January. Jobs grew by 1.0 percent in Northern Virginia, and 0.7 percent in Hampton Roads and Richmond-Petersburg.

• The unemployment rate rose from 3.2 to 3.8 percent in January. A large increase between December and January is fairly normal as retailers transition from the holiday shopping season and colleges and universities close for winter break.

• The Virginia leading index fell 0.4 percent in January, its fifth decline in six months. All three components of the index contributed to the decline. The regional indices fell in eight of Virginia’s eleven metropolitan areas in January. Northern Virginia’s index was unchanged, while Blacksburg and Roanoke were the only metropolitan areas where the indices increased.

Current Economic Conditions

8

Growth in Withholding Tax CollectionsFY08 Monthly and Year-to-Date

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

• Collections of payroll withholding taxes grew 4.8 percent in February.

• Year-to-date withholding growth is 5.7 percent, slightly ahead of the projected annual growth rate of 5.2 percent.

Forecast: 5.2%

9

• February is not typically a significant month for nonwithholding collections. A total of $27.0 million was collected in February, compared with $51.9 million in February of last year.

• To date, about 40 percent of the nonwithholding forecast has been collected, and collections during this period are 5.3 percent above the same period last year, which is ahead of the revised annual estimate of 3.2 percent. The majority of the remaining collections in this source will occur in April and May, with both final payments for tax year 2007 and estimated payments for the current year due May 1.

10

Nonwithholding Tax CollectionsFY07 and FY08 Monthly

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

FY07 FY08

Millions of $

• TAX issued $414.3 million in individual refunds in February 2008, compared with $318.8 million in February 2007. The extra day from leap year contributed to the large increase.

• Year to date, refunds are 17.4 percent ahead of the same period last year, ahead of the annual forecast of a 9.6 percent increase. For the filing season beginning January 1, 964,000 refunds have been issued compared with 873,500 in the same period last year.

11

Individual Income Tax RefundsFY07 and FY08 Monthly

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

FY07 FY08

Millions of $

• Collections of sales and use taxes, reflecting January sales, fell 6.4 percent in February. February receipts include post-holiday sales and gift card purchases, completing the holiday shopping season. Based on collections for December, January, and February, reflecting taxable sales for November through January, sales during the holiday season fell 2.2 percent from last year, the worst holiday shopping season since the sales tax was implemented.

• On a year-to-date basis, collections of sales and use taxes have increased 0.9 percent, trailing the revised annual estimate of 1.6 percent growth.

12

Growth in Sales Tax CollectionsFY08 Monthly and Year-to-Date

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

Forecast: 1.6%

• As with individual nonwithholding, February is not a significant month for corporate income tax collections. Corporate income tax collections were $38.3 million in February of 2008 compared with $9.7 million in February of 2007.

• Year-to-date collections are down 15.6 percent compared to the same period last year, ahead of the annual projected decline of 20.5 percent.

13

Net Corporate Income Tax CollectionsFY07 and FY08 Monthly

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

FY07 FY08

Growth in Recordation Tax CollectionsFY08 Monthly and Year-to-Date

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

• Recordation tax collections fell 28.2 percent in February as the housing market continued to slow.

• On a year-to-date basis, collections in this source declined 19.2 percent from last year, compared with the revised estimate of a 15.0 percent annual decline.

14

Forecast: -9.0%

Note: Growth rates correspond to Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts, of which about 90% is Recordation Tax.

15

• Pending home sales in the three major metropolitan areas, representing about 70% of total recordation taxes, are down 27% from prior year levels.

Pending Home Sales in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and RichmondLevels

Seasonally-adjusted 3-month moving average

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Northern Virginia Hampton Roads Richmond30% 24% 15%

Northern VirginiaHampton Roads

Richmond

(% share of total home sales in Virginia)

Average Sale PriceDec-06 Dec-07 % Growth

Nor thern Virgin ia $507,336 $488,342 -4%Hampton Roads 276,104 281,066 2%Richmond 270,172 225,000 -17%

Summary of Fiscal Year 2008 Revenue Collections

July through February

16

As a %of Total YTD February 2008

Major Source Revenues Actual Estimate Variance

Withholding 57.2 % 5.7 % 5.2 % 0.5 %Nonwithholding 18.2 5.3 3.2 2.1Refunds (10.9) 17.4 9.6 7.8 Net Individual 64.6 4.5 3.9 0.6

Sales 19.7 0.9 1.6 (0.7)Corporate 4.4 (15.6) (20.5) 4.9Wills (Recordation) 3.1 (19.2) (15.0) (4.2)Insurance 2.7 17.9 8.7 9.2All Other Revenue 5.5 10.8 (1.8) 12.6

Total 100.0 % 2.4 % 1.2 % 1.2 %

Percent Growth over Prior Year