Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020

Dr. Bärbel Birnstengel Madrid, 26 May 2011

© 2011 Prognos AG 2

Meet the future challenges

We are all in the same boat...

Resource consumption leading to resource scarcity

Global climate change

Increasing waste volumes and changing

composition

- growing worldwide, details unknown -

- much faster, regionally unbalanced-

- strain on environment -

© 2011 Prognos AG 3

EU 27 in 2008: 2.37 Bt of waste treated...

Source: Eurostat

49%

of waste

is still landfilled

3%energy

recovery

2%incineration

46%Other treatment

(of these: 55% minerals)

secondary resources

© 2011 Prognos AG 4

High resource potential

Example: paper & cardboard (reference year 2006)

……

80.4 Mt

share recovered

share disposed off

range of share recovered within EU27

legend:

CO2 reduction

recovery rate 67%

44 MtCO2 equ.

Source: European atlas of secondary raw materials 2006 – Edition 2009 Prognos AG

© 2011 Prognos AG 5

… has only partly been used so far (2006)...

Source: European atlas of secondary raw materials 2006 – Edition 2009 Prognos AG

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Range of recovery rate

Ø 49%

© 2011 Prognos AG 6

glass

paper & cardboard

plastics

iron &steel

aluminium

copper

waste wood

textiles

biodegradable waste

rubber & tyres

solid fuel waste

remaining MSW

CO2 study (2008)

Methodology

allocation of waste codes to 11 waste streams that have a high resource substitution potential + remaining municipal solid waste

estimation of the generated waste stream specific amounts from mixed waste fractions

development of four scenarios mainly for the development of waste management measures

- amounts and composition as of 2004

- system boundaries: generation - collection - sorting - further treatment - secondary raw material

- EU 27 energy mix

identification of resource saving potential and possible contribution to CO2 reduction targets

© 2011 Prognos AG 7

The Study was sponsored by ...

Bundesverband Sekundärrohstoffe und Entsorgung e.V.

Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling- und

Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V.

Dutch Waste Management Association

MRF: Dutch Steel Recycling Association

tecpol – Technologieentwicklungs GmbH für ökoeffiziente

Polymerverwertung

FIR: Fédération Internationale du Recyclage

ETRMA: European Tyre & Rubber Manufacturers' Association

Bundesvereinigung Recycling Baustoffe

ERFO: European Recovered Fuel Association

CEWEP: Confederation of European Waste-to-Energy plants

Dutch Construction and Demolition Waste Association

... an unique European coalition of Waste Management

Organisations

© 2011 Prognos AG 8

Methodology (reference year 2004)

- handout only -

Scenario 1: Business as Usual

Status quo development

only current legislation, no new Waste Framework Directive

Scenario 3: Strict & Ambitious EU Legislation

Optimized development

WFD – waste hierarchy as general rule

higher recycling targets as for scenario 2 (min. 60% MSW / 80% C&D)

ban on landfill for calorific fractions and biowaste

Scenario 2: Modernised EU Waste Framework

Further development

revised Waste Framework Directive (R1-status for MSW incineration)

recycling targets for MSW (min. 50%) and C&D waste (min. 70%)

higher recycling targets for packaging waste

Biowaste Directive (min. 80%)

Scenario 3a: Ambitious EU Legislation + Market

Optimized development (free market)

WFD – waste hierarchy as principle guideline

targets and ban on landfill as in scenario 3

© 2011 Prognos AG 9

EU 27 waste management can contribute to…

Source Prognos – INFU – IFEU, Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020, Berlin 2008

reference year 2004

scenario 1 2020

scenario 2 2020

scenario 3 2020

scenario 3a 2020

+ 146 Mt CO2equ.

+ 197 Mt CO2equ.

+ 227 Mt CO2equ.

+ 244 Mt CO2equ.

92 Mt CO2equ.

only by implementation

by waste legislation

before WFD !

.of the European climate protection targets until 2020

..19% to 31%

roughly corresponds to

WFD

© 2011 Prognos AG 10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CH DE NL SE AT DK BE LU NO FR IT* FI ES UK IE EE PT SI PL CZ HU SK RO GR CY LT BG LV MT

landfilling incineration recycling composting other / no information

Municipal Solid Waste management -indicator for the level of development of waste management

Source: Eurostat

R1 / D10: 53.3 Mt

recycled: 61.6 Mt

composted*: 45.2 Mt

landfilled: 100.8 Mt Ø 38%

257 Mt (2009 - EU 27 + NO + CH) are Municipal Solid Waste

© 2011 Prognos AG 11

Municipal Solid Waste landfilled causes great CO2 burdens...

…and results in lost resources

Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO2-Study, 2008

* considered 11 fractions vs. remaining mixed MSW (grey bin); due to methodological reasons calculation based on constant total residual volumes** wtE according to legislation in 2004 and 2006 considered as incineration (D10) ; for scenario 2 we calculated a share of 75% and for scenario 3/3a a share of 90% of municipal waste incineration plants achieving the energy efficiency criteria (R1).

reference year 2004

scenario 1 2020

scenario 2 2020

scenario 3 2020

scenario 3a 2020

-114Mt CO2equ.

59 Mt CO2equ.

Credits for

recycled MSW

fractions*

Balance for

remaining MSW

∆ -55 Mt CO2equ.

∆ 70 Mt CO2equ.

CO2 reduction of separately collected fractions and alternative treatment methods of remaining MSW

CO2 burden by landfilling remaining MSW

total share of contribution of alternative treatment methods (R1, D10, fuel preparation)share contribution of wtE (R1)

legend:

128 Mt CO2equ.

109 Mt CO2equ.

∆ 105 Mt CO2equ.

© 2011 Prognos AG

Only consequent diversion of waste from landfills will lead to better climate protection results:

Landfill bans with different focus, e.g. combustible waste, unsorted waste, etc.)

Landfill taxes with great differences per country

12

Instruments: Landfill bans and taxes in Europe

landfill ban landfill tax

PT

ES

IE UK

NO

FI

SE

FR

DEPL

DK

BE

NL

ATCH

IT

EE

LV

LT

BG

ROHU

CZSK

SI

GR

Source: CEWEP 2010 EU “landfilling states”

EU “lrecycling / incineration states”

© 2011 Prognos AG

Additional CO2 reduction potential compared to 2004 (1)

... only by improving disposal and waste treatment operations of remaining municipal waste (MSW) (as range between scenario 1 and scenario 3a

compared to 2004):

EU „recycling / incineration states“14 - 23 Mt CO2equ.

EU „landfilling states“70 – 107 Mt CO2equ.

9.5 – 14.9 Mt CO2equ.

EU “landfilling states”

EU “lrecycling / incineration states”Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO2-Study, 2008

© 2011 Prognos AG

Additional CO2 reduction potentials compared to 2004 (2)

... through recycling, recovery and energy recovery in the analysed material waste streams (as range between scenario 1 and scenario 3a

compared to 2004):

EU „recycling / incineration states“23 - 44 Mt CO2equ.

EU „landfilling states“39 – 69 Mt CO2equ.

5.1 – 10.7 Mt CO2equ.

EU “landfilling states”

EU “lrecycling / incineration states”Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO2-Study, 2008

© 2011 Prognos AG 15

The way to high resource and energy efficiency is still long but irreversible!

Waste management can...

...play an important role to close resource cycles and to secure important secondary raw materials and energy

...contribute significantly to climate protection

...by diverting (mainly calorific and biodegradable) waste from landfills

© 2011 Prognos AG 16

Global challenges need coordinated global solutions

Climate protection needs to be optimized by improved waste management

2. waste management needs to be really turned to resource management, giving priority to diverting waste from landfills

4. consumer needs to be better integrated into material cycles

1. waste management needs to become a really integrated part of environmental, economical and climate policy

3. recycling and energy recovery needs to go hand in hand (not against each other) giving priority to global environmental, climate etc. challenges

6. regional crossboarder concepts (instead of strict national self sufficiency concepts) need to be more supported

5. secondary raw material and energy efficiency needs to be increased

2

3

4

1

6

5

© 2011 Prognos AG 17

Sense of duty, team orientation, reliability …

Let‘s use our chance!

Trying to do the best …… but it wasn‘t enough

Trying to do the best …… but it wasn‘t enough

© 2011 Prognos AG

Where can you find further information?

18

Prognos AG: Europäischer Sekundärrohstoffatlas 2006 Status Quo und Potenziale – Edition 2009 / European Atlas of Secondary Raw Materials 2006 Status Quo and Potential – Edition 2009, Berlin 2008, added by a forecast for 2020

(www.prognos.com/sekundaerrohstoffatlas)

Prognos – INFU – IFEU: Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020; Berlin 2008

(http://www.prognos.com/CO2-study.609.0.html)

© 2011 Prognos AG 19

Picture Copyright: slides 1-3 , 15-17– fotolia ©; slide 19 – Prognos AG

We give orientation.Prognos AG - European Centre for Economic Research and Strategy Advise

│ Goethestr. 85 │ D-10623 Berlin

Phone: +49 30 52 00 59 215Fax: +49 211 887 97 8390

E-Mail: baerbel.birnstengel@prognos.com

Dr. Bärbel BirnstengelSenior Project Manager