resilience.io economics webinar presentation october 2014
DESCRIPTION
Webinar by Stephen Passmore (The Ecological Sequestration Trsut) and Rembrandt Koppelaar (IIER/ICL) that will explain the http://resilience.io platform focusing on its core capability in providing cross-sector decision support for a city and its hinterland. We will provide an overview of how the resource-economic simulation model operates and provides the evidence in city region decision-making for investment, procurement, policy making, and planning, to achieve more resilient solutions. We will focus on the interconnections between resource flows from human and ecological agents as well as the socio-economic activity of people and companies, and how these deliver regional outputs. Areas that we will be addressing include: Resource flows and socio-economic model interconnections. Links to planning, procurement, policy making, and investment decisions. Data acquisition, maintenance, and sharing cross-sector and regional interdependencies.TRANSCRIPT
resilience.ioWebinar
28th October 2014@resilienceIO
Agenda
1.Introduction – 5 minsStephen PassmoreHead of Platform Development - TEST
2.Model Processes and Functions – 30 minsRembrandt KoppelaarModelling research lead - IIER
3.Questions – 25 mins
Enquiries: [email protected]
Some Fundamentals• We are facing the combined challenges of climate change,
population increase and urbanisation, increasing resource scarcity and its impact on our economies, society and environment.
• This is a systemic challenge – we need to meet it with systems thinking and a coordinated response that stimulates closer collaboration between the public, private, knowledge and community sectors.
• City-regions are on the front line and where systemic change has the potential to deliver the most rapid benefits.
The Ecological Sequestration Trust• TEST is a UK Charity formed in 2011 to speed up and scale
up transformative urban/rural development towards a resilient, low carbon, resource efficient way of living.
• We operate in the space between private, pubic, knowledge and community sectors to facilitate systems integration and to support collaborative decision making on policies and investment.
• TEST has brought together world-leading modellers and sector experts to design and create the world’s first open-source, fully integrated resource and economics systems model for city-regions.
Resilience.io Platform
Technical Brief on Model Architecture & Decision Support
28 October 2014
Rembrandt Koppelaar – Modelling Research Lead Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER)
A new approach to sustainability and resilience
NowWhere we could be with systems
thinking and an urban-rural approach
• Sequential approach in project evaluation• Conventional economic assessment dominates • Short term political and finance cycle perspective• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy,
urban and rural viewed separately)• Social benefit at the end of the line (not transparent)
• INTEGRATED DESIGN
• INTEGRATED PLANNING
• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN
DESIGN
PLANNING
DEVELOPMENT
Approach to Sustainable Regions
• A Regional Approach Is Fundamental• Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build
regional capacity and shared confidence to act• Must unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a
common/credible economic analyses
Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration
Components Overview
Model core is a link between:
• Resource conversions (material & energy balance + labour).
• Agent based socio-economics (human activities & decisions).
Both components are calibrated for each location and run with a set of selected “rules” for institutions and policies
Biophysical resource conversions
• All activities across sectors can be described as resource conversions with labour inputs in space and time.
• Systematic Resource Conversion Process Library across all sectors (14).
• Hard-coded boundary description for allocation to spatial landscapes.
• Modular setup to enable creation of local configurations.
Source of top figure: Brandt et al. (2013) Calculating systems-scale energy efficiency and net energy returns : A bottom-up matrix-based approach. Energy 62. p.235-247Source of bottom figure:: Kuosmanen, N., Kuosmanen,T., (2013). Modeling Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Surpluses in Agriculture: A Dynamic Approach to Material Balance Accounting. Ecological Economics. 90. p. 159-167.
Spatial resource conversion allocation
Identification of Infrastructure:
•Company or Household
•Spatial location
•Outputs produced (company)
•Production typology (company)
•Infrastructure typology
Facilitates automated spatial allocation of resource conversions, labour & employee requirements, infrastructure material stocks, embodied flows.
Distribution centre
Meat process factory
Football stadium
Hospital
Residences
Activity Based Consumption
• Simulated people carry out activities in time and space.
• Core activities include leisure, work, food consumption, travel, ‘maintenance’, and sleep.
• Activities linked to Resource Consumption Baskets of Materials and Energy.
• Simulated activity profile translated to resource consumption profile in space and time.
Source of figures: Keirstead, J., Sivakumar, A., 2012. Using Activity-Based Modeling to Simulate Urban Resource Demands at High Spatial and Temporal Resolutions.Journal of Industrial Ecology. 16(6). pp. 889 – 900.
Agent Decision Socio-Economics
PeoplePeopleInstitutions
(Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture)
Institutions (Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture)
GovernmentGovernment
DecisionsDecisions
MarketsMarkets
Outcomes(Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health,
etc.)
Outcomes(Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health,
etc.)
DemographicsDemographics
FirmographicsFirmographics
CompaniesCompanies
HouseholdsHouseholds
Labour
Supply &Demand
Supply &Demand
Shape
Sha
pe
Shape
Make
MakeM
akeInfluence
Influence
External World
External World
Regulate
Supply & Demand
Agent interactions organised by markets
• Exchange of Goods and Services from Transactions Markets.
• Change in occupations and jobs from Labour Markets.
• Change in Physical Capital from investment & property markets (Biosphere + Technosphere).
• Change in Human Capital from Educational and Labour Markets (Degrees + Experience) as well as Health Markets.
Transactions of Goods &
Services Markets
Investment & Property Markets
Agents as1) Consumers 2) Processors
3) OwnersHealthMarkets
LabourMarkets
EducationalMarkets
Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being
Creating Visibility on Ecosystems, Environment & Health relationships
• Simulated resource conversions result in flows of waste and pollution to air, soil, surface, water bodies in space and time.
• Flows can be combined with existing databases of human and eco-toxicity indicators for environmental impact assessment.
• Simulation framework facilitates connection to existing regional ecosystem models with feedbacks (flows, ecosystem services).
• Impacts on Human Health in space and time become visible by environmental exposure, activity decision change, feedbacks of ecosystem degradation or improvements.
Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration
Decision Support for Regional Design
• Resilience.io is not a predictive modelling platform which describes the future.
• Resilience.io is normative as it creates insights in how to shape the future.
• Its value is the ability to simulate investment, planning, and policy decisions.
• And giving users visibility on decision impact at economic, social, and environmental dimensions.
Model
RegionalDesign
SimulationResults
Investment
Planning
Policies
Visibility
Resilience
Performance
States
Investment, Policy, Planning, Impacts visible at multiple levels
Level 2 : Indicator relational details
& graphical output
Level 3: Quantitative & Qualitative
Variable and Parameter mapping
Level 4: Technical report Identification of relational
and data gaps and potential for improvement
Comprehensiveness of process and agent relations and data
input
Level 1 – Key Performance Indicators
Indicators include Stability and Resilience
• Value at Risk due to Natural & Societal Events are measured by impact on Capital (Social, Economic, Natural, Physical)
• Stability continuity in supply of goods and services + pursuit of activities
• Resilience ability to mitigate shocks and prevent irreversible capital loss
Economic Response-Capital Re-allocation-Capital Re-configuration
Economic Impact-Capital Mitigation-Capital Loss
Natural-Climate Change-Pathogens-Ecosystem change
Societal-Social Disruptions-Supply Chains-Market Shocks
Economic Instruments
Legislative & Public Instruments
Taxes and tax concessions Purchasing Tradable
Permits
Educational programmes
Standards and Penalties Covenants
Accreditation systems
Licensing
Subsidies and grants
Public service provision
Simulating Policy Decisions
• The model is delivered with a library of policy options.
• Policy effects are simulated based on changes in market operation and decisions.
• Impacts become visible through changes in outcomes (production, consumption, activities) and indicators (social, economic, environmental) in space and time.
• Users can put policies into effect and vary their degree.
Simulating Investments and Procurement
• Companies start investment decision evaluation based on threshold conditions (e.g. capital, market conditions, credit).
• Simulated investments decisions are based on a three-step procedure, first: technology choice, second: selection of plausible options, third: cost-benefit analysis.
• Users can analyse investment condition impacts by adjusting parameters requirements (NPV, ROI, BCR, Diversification, Time Horizon), value inclusion (Economic, Social, Environmental), and degree of cross-sector information in simulation.
• Users can as “central planner” choose their own investment decisions at both company and government levels, overriding internal simulation decisions.
Simulating Planning Decisions
• At baseline for each demonstrator the local spatial planning map is reconstructed in the model.
• The platform user can adjust planning rules as a “planning permission authority” about land use, construction, and demolition, based on parameter settings.
• Any investment or policy decision generated in the simulation will be evaluated and accepted or rejected based on the user set planning rules.
Built environment
change
Built environment
change
Planning Investment
Planning Investment
Simulated Planning consideration (company /
government)
Simulated Planning consideration (company /
government)
Simulated Planning Application
Simulated Planning Application
Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules
Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules
Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration
Inclusive Regional Model Roll-out
Data sources for simulating people, companies andecology in time and space
Population Status• Population census data • Birth-death, marriage registers• Labour, employment records• Education & Health records• Happiness surveys
Market & Societal structures• Business and tax records• Company Location Data• Activity & Consumption data• Sector and Utility Networks• Crowd-sourced Surveys
Transport & Exchange• Public transport records• GPS, traffic & signal sensors• Cross boundary Imp./Exp. data• Market purchasing data• Property investment data
Ecological Information• Land registries • Soil and Water Quality • Biomass Productivity• Climatic ecosystem records • Local Ecosystem Models
Resilience.ioSimulation
Satellite Remote Sensing – Urban Environment Information - Edinburgh
Social Data - Multiple Deprivation Score at Ward/ Street Level – London
Crown copyright and database rights 2011 Ordnance Survey. London Borough of Tower Hamlets 100019288Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010
Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration
Creating visibility for cross-sector collaboration
Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Aquatic)
x
Construction
Energy Generation
Transportation
Human and animal Services
Food processing Forestry
MineralExtraction
Physical manufacturing
Chemical manufacturing
Recycling, disposal, remanufacturing
Water Supply
Agriculture & Seafood
Biological processing
Human consumption
Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action
in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important
Locations(1-5m people)
Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action
in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important
Locations(1-5m people)
Getting People Working Together
Getting People Working Together
Regional Collaboratory
Open-sourceModel ‘living master plan’
Open-sourceModel ‘living master plan’
Cross sector capacity building
programmes – integrated
systems thinking & design
Tangible linking of social/wellbeing
benefit to physical interventions
Integrated technology and infrastructure project plans
Mobilised finance and inward investment
Live regional data cloud and
performance KPIs & metrics
Public, Private & Community
Sector Partner Access/
collaboration
Public, Private & Community
Sector Partner Access/
collaboration
Integrated regional development plan
Collaboratories ‘on the ground’
Stanford, Clark Center Stanford D. school
Warwick Research Exchange
Cambridge, Sainsbury Laboratory Arizona, Decision Theatre
Questions..
OASIS
Global ICES ESAGlobal Climate and Insurance Catastrophic Risk Modelling
User Cockpits
Integrated urban systems design/planning and procurement for sustainability and resilience
Now Where we could be with systems thinking and performance based
procurement
• Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc)
• Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic plane
• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately)
• Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes .
• INTEGRATED DESIGN• INTEGRATED PLANNING• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN
DESIGN
PLANNING
DEVELOPMENT
OutputSuccessful
improvement in energy-water-food
security and quality of lifess
“Project portfolio”
Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model
Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’
Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds
Return Investment
Assurance
“High quality inclusive resilient growth”
Appendix
-Process Library Example-Technological Progress-3D Visualisation-Full (Eco)nomic Value
Process Library Sector ExampleData improvement
•Full supply chain accounting•Data accounting robustness•Identification of data gaps•Crosscheck validation potential
Technology appraisal•R&D technology effects•Process substitution options•Cost accounting of suppliers•Eco-efficiency priorities•Supply chain environmental impact calculation
Energy Generation
Solar Energy Wind Energy
Thin Film Solar Photovoltaic Solar
PolycrystallineMonocrystalline Amorphous
Ingot based Ribbon drawn
Sets of processes
A B C D E F G
Technology progress forecasts
3D visualisation provides a communication tool for stakeholders & investors data menu enables interactive overlay of relevant information
Labour hours •to retrieve & process materials (incl. energy) across supply chains•to transport and distribute materials•“Embodied” in infrastructure
Temporal storage cost requirements for supply chain functioning
Full (Eco)nomic Value
Price markups•Market organization•Ownership•Skill and knowledge demand/supply
Societal valuation•present vs. the future (discount rates )•Scarcity of goods in relation to demand and preferences
Ecosystem services•Provisioning•Regulating•Cultural
Human well-being•Security•Wealth for a good life•Health•Good social relations•Freedom of choice
Market Prices (Eco)nomic value
Technology Base Labour / Energy needs
Market Structure Markups & Distribution
Societal Valuation Price as a marker for value
Physical costs