RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION: AN ACTIVITY SYSTEMS APPROACH

Professor Greg Marsden, Jeremy Shires, Dr Antonio Ferreira, Ian Phillips

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds

Dr Noel Cass, Lancaster University

Key Messages

• Current approach to planning is dominated by engineering systems

• Accountability is modally fragmented• Exposes a flaw in our planning to adapt to

extreme events• Which should make us reflect on planning for

‘normality’• Activity-based thinking broadens the tool box

• Severe Winter Weather of 2009-10– Coldest and most extended winter to hit the UK

for 30 years” (Quarmby 2010a, p. 6) – closure of runways at Heathrow Airport leading to

the cancellation of over 4000 flights between 17 and 23 December (Begg et al., 2011);

– Closure of motorways in Scotland which ultimately led to a ministerial resignation.

Extreme events matter…

“Snow storm threatens national shutdown”

• Winter weather events cost £280m per day (DfT estimate)

• “Business leaders fear that the disruption could cost the British economy at least £1.2 billion in lost trade” (Telegraph 2010)

• Quarmby– Public take a realistic view of need to invest given

infequencey – but….– plan for winter of severity of 2009-10 despite low

probability

What does current practice reflect?

Engineering Resilience

• Stability, the resistance to disturbance and speed of return to ‘normal’- the equilibrium point. (Holling, 1986)

• Emphasis is on ensuring reliability and recovery of the existing transport network to a defined level of service (e.g. Ben-Tal et al., 2011; Futurenet, 2009)

• Strong accountability appeal

Ecological and Evolutionary Resilience

• Ecological resilience – system can flip from one equilibrium to another

• Evolutionary resilience – opposes notion of equilibrium. System is always in a state of flux.– Davoudi (2012)

• Intentionality of human actions

• Individuals and systems matter

• Resilience is normative and political

• Bounding the system risks exclusion

• 18th January 2013• Disruption for several days

• School closures – more than 5,000 on 21st January

• Cancellation of public transport – including major airports

• Road closures• Difficulty travelling on roads

that were open.

• On-line panel• N = 2418• 6 worst affected regions

Disruption Project Case Study 1: Winter Weather

General responses (1)

Activity Delayed Start Delayed Finish Not ConductedCommute 30% 18% 29%Biz Travel 6% 4% 17%Return Home 12% 30% 4%Health 3% 1% 9%School/ Child Care 5% 2% 3%Other Care 4% 3% 6%Shopping 10% 5% 39%Sport 1% 1% 12%Leisure 2% 2% 22%Family/ Friends 4% 3% 31%Other 1% 0% 2%All Respondents & All Activities – n= 2417

General Responses (2)Activity Postponed Cancel New

DestinationConducted At

HomeCommute 6% 23% 1% 8%Biz Travel 7% 10% 1% 2%Return Home 4% 6% 1% 1%Health 9% 6% 0% 0%School/ Child Care 3% 22% 0% 1%Other Care 6% 6% 0% 1%Shopping 39% 19% 5% 3%Sport 12% 21% 0% 0%Leisure 22% 29% 2% 1%Family/ Friends 31% 28% 2% 1%Other 2% 2% 0% 0%

Also…

• More likely to work from home and use another form of transport the more often you are affected

• More likely to work from home with an accommodating employer

• More likely to cancel if you have children…

Disruption Project Case Study 2: York Floods

© crown copyright

The changing workplace• “I’m the senior person who runs the asset team

within Leeds and so if I don’t come in, I don’t come in. That’s all well and good...But the reality is of course is that I have a Blackberry, I have an iPad with work so I’m fully contactable anyway....whether it’s myself or the team, you know, whether it’s flooding or snow or anything else is that don’t bother trying to get in, you don’t need to be in the office to work, just work from home. So from that side we’re okay.”

Insights on childcare arrangements • “I left the office early, my office in town hall, to make

sure I could get back to Stillingfleet to meet my son. And then I was worried about my mum, who comes to look after my son when I go out to work in the evenings because I’m a single parent, being able to reach my house from Selby.”

• “I think it would’ve been an unfair expectation of people in the village to care for her, and also she was quite frightened at the time of the water so I think it’s that balance between “Yes I’m committed to work and I want to get there, but equally I’ve got a child to take care of as well.”

CAR responses

CYCLE responses

Conclusions

• Reality is a complex evolutionary activity system– Negotiation, flexibility, adaptation, employers attitudes,

technology– Significant distributional aspects to consider

• Engineering system has a crucial role within this– Typical conditions matter– Options matter

• Does this throw light on a better way of planning?• Could we deliver that in our current silos?