researching on-line: where is it coming from, where is it heading to? olaf hofmann managing director...
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Researching on-line:Where is it coming from, where is it heading to?
Olaf HofmannManaging DirectorSKOPOS Germany
• Olaf Hofmann, Psychology Graduate, 35 years of age
• Chairman of the German On-line Research Society
• Managing director of SKOPOS Market Research
• Founded in 1995 by Olaf Hofmann & Jörg Korff
Who’s talking?
• SKOPOS has been researching on-line since 1998
• Strategic partnership with dooyoo, an internet opinion portal since 2000
• Branches in Cologne, London, Paris, Madrid, Rome
• Clients: Ford, GM, BMW, Ericsson, Siemens etc.
Who’s talking?
1. The early days
2. The state of the art
3. Future trends
Preview
Early activities were (mis-)guided by:
• the view that the web would be a cure-all
• over-ambitious expectations
• too many companies entering the market
• Non adherence to established quality standards
The early days
Contrasting prognoses with reality gives an idea of the misconceptions:
• In 1999 a proportion of up to 10% of on-line projects was expected for 2001 for the German market
• The actual proportion in 2001 will be as low as 2 to 3%...
The early days
High pioneering spirit, massive VC investmentsand low barriers to market entry trapped manyonline research providers into:
• a quick-and-cheap (and dirty...) approach
• inappropriate deployment of available technology
• a premature entry into an• extremely small• rapidly growing• quarterly changing• methodologicalwise extremely difficult market
The early days
1. The early days
2. The state of the art
3. Future trends
Preview
• The field has sobered up, the hype has vanished.
• Markets are getting cleared up:
portals, ISPs etc. are either withdrawing or turning into mere data delivery services
• which is good: for them, for us, for you
The state of the art
• Two main camps are discernible:
• Some contest the value of researching on-line
• Others have started sorting out what is feasible on-line and what isn’t
• The latter camp focuses on quality standards...
The state of the art
On-line panels illustrate the development of contemporary research.
From the beginning, they were an important resource. Their advantages:
• simple recruitment
• easy and detailed screening
• quick access
• highly specific target groups
research in hitherto inaccessible domains
The state of the art
The state of the art
However, insufficient attention was paid to the recruitment:
• participants of many panels were passively recruited
• recruitment was hardly controlled for effects of selection
• marketing and market research activities have been mixed
The state of the art
This caused a number of problems:
• High panel mortality
• “professional participants”
• low representativity due to:
• an undefined population
• “incentive hunters”
• low response rates
The state of the art
Several strategies were developed to overcome such problems:
• Combining active recruiting methods (e.g. CATI, web sites, post etc.) attenuates response bias
• Constant adjustment to online-population parameters by means of reference studies (“rotating panel”)
• Permanent evaluation of:
• panellists (panel satisfaction, mortality etc.)
• raw data (checks of consistency and plausibility)
1. The early days
2. The state of the art
3. Future trends
Preview
Beyond the early days-hype, on-line research is coming to be viewed as an integral componentof market research
On-line research is not a stand-alone method nor an alternative to off-line research
Integration and useful extension of researchmethods are the keywords for the future
Future trends
Integration of on-line components into studiesmust turn into advantage the real assets ofon-line tools:
• Improved piloting
• Maximised time & cost efficiency
• Better field control in international studies
Future trends
Integration will work on several levels of mixedoff-line & online studies:
• Off-line recruiting for on-line panels
• Studio tests of on-line materials
• On-line piloting for lab experiments
Future trends
Quality standards will be rigorously adhered to
The quick-and-dirty approach of the old days is nolonger feasible
Current research regulations and codes of practicemust be amended to reflect this development
Future trends
Researching on-line could usefully extend therepertoire of research methods
Most importantly, on-line research should focus onmore than just putting questionnaires to the web
For the first time, data is available on-line that oncecould only be collected in the studio!
New technologies from basic research can beseamlessly transferred to market research
Future trends
Implicit Assessment Technology (IAT) might serve toillustrate the smart new methods:
IAT can be used to measure consumer’s attitudes toproducts, brands or adverts
Future trends
Unlike traditional measures, IAT measures responsetimes during dichotomous classification of products, brands or adverts
Specific response criteria suppress consciouscognition
This yields unbiased data at unrivalled test power Even subtle effects no longer go undetected
Future trends
IAT-based studies will require fewer participants
• reduced field costs
• faster studies
• more complex designs with less effort
An example: context effects on ad placement
Future trends
IAT design
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3Ad contact No ad contact
N=250 N=250 N=250
General recommendations for deployment of on-line research:
• Use of excellent & independent MR Agencies due to lack of in house experience
• start to build a feeling for:
- on-line target groups
- dos & don‘ts of on-line research
- sampling problems in the net
• transition phase:
- use both methods, at the same time for a limited time, costs more for a while, saves money medium term, gives you the opportunity to learn, develop a
feeling
Future trends
Established methods
• vertical panels
• B2B research (ad pre-tests)
• international/global research
• adaptive conjoints & pricing
• IAT is coming in place
Ad hoc marketing research
Future trends
IT decision makers
pregnant women
minorities
• Image tracking
• tracking of ad efficancy
• Any type of tracking (except web site research)
Problematic methods
On-line research is one of the most difficult methods to implement:
Future trends
Need for on-line research
Outcome
Seduction
+_
• Ad banners (self-recruitment)
• Generalisation despite low coverage
• Active recruitment
• Careful handling of target groups
Marketing
Cost reduction Expectations
Difficulties & Challenges