Research institute

for water, subsurface and infrastructure

Jaap Kwadijk, Director of Science

Deltares formed to avoid this in NL

Characteristics of institute

Independent research institute on

water, soil and infrastructure

Legal form: foundation under Dutch

law (no shareholders, Not4Profit)

Doing applied research and

specialized consultancy

Our mission and motto: ‘enabling

delta life’

Working (inter)nationally for public

and private sector

Making use of unique in-house

research facilities and software

Strong links with the Academia

Campus in Delft

Some more background….

Fact and Figures

Personnel: some 850 fte,

about15 % international from 25 –

30 countries

Annual turnover over 100 million

Euro (ca. 30 % abroad)

Located in Delft and Utrecht

Offices in Singapore, Washington

DC and Abu Dhabi

Deltares and academia

Some 20 (part-time) professors

Guidance (often in form of

internship) of some 60 PhD’s

Cooperation with most Dutch

universities

International relations +

exchange (Singapore, …)

Knowledge impact audits

5 juli 2018

Research and consultancy on societal themes

See also http://worldofdeltares.deltares.nl/

Research facilities

• Deltares software used in more than 100 countries

• Open software establishes sharing community

Open software: dare to share

5 juli 2018

Deltares Forecasting system in more than 40

countries

> 33% global GDP (~177TEURO) under FEWS

Some global water / flood assessments

Courtesy to Prof.:

Marc

Bierkens

Marc Iliffe

Jeroen

Aerts

Nick van de

Giesen

Gennadii Donchyts

Daniël Tollenaar

Hessel

Winsemius;

Albrecht Weerts

Martin Verlaan

Nick Gorelick

Use global data locally

Manzese ward, Dar es Salaam

International research directions 2018-20121

Some food for thought

5 juli 2018

November 30 2011

Expected growth in risk (only rivers here)

Winsemius et al et al. (2016): Large growth in risk in S-E Asia due to climate

change but climate change impact is dwarfed by the disproportionate growth of

economy in flood prone zones.

Risk = f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability)

5 juli 2018 16

Cost-benefit analysis: minimising total costs

5 juli 2018 17

Investment costs

Expected damage cost

Total costs

Costs

(dollar)

Levee height (cm)

(Marginal benefits = marginal costs)

Protection standard (1/year)Are there limits to meaningful

values here

5 juli 2018 18

Risk beyond adaptation: SIDS as hotspots

Figure: Expected annual

damages (EAD) under SLR

(sea level rise) scenario RCP

8.5 (Representative

Concentration Pathway), for

different time horizons (current,

2030, 2050 and 2100). Sub-

areas define sectors

characterised by homogeneous

exposed assets. Values are

given per areal unit (USD/m2)

How do we address “buying time”??

Legend

1/500

1/1.250

1/2.000

1/4.000

1/10.000

1/40.000

1/100.000

Efficient standards Existing standards

(Dutch) Flood hazard vs some other natural

hazards (?)

P (NL hit by a massive

Volcanic eruption) >

1/60K (?)

P (Annihiliation of the US)

> 1/400K (?)

P (globe hit by a massive

tsunami ) > 1/ 1000K (?)

5 juli 2018 20

Limits to meaningful predictions

Triggered by Bruno Merz

5 juli 2018 21

Example forecasting model for the River Rhine

in NL

Flood standard 1: 100,000

If such a flood is forecasted : Evacuate

Suppose our forecasting model predicts floods correct in 98% of the

cases

Lets evaluate the system over 10 million year, 1 flood per year

5 juli 2018

107 years

100 xfloods

999,999,900

no- xfloods

Reality Predicted

98 xfloods (hit)

2 no xfloods (miss)

199.998 xfloods (false)

9.799.902 no xfloods

(correct negative)

And it is getting worse

So the probability that a forecast is correct ~ 0,05%

Some reasonable figures in this area:

• max flood damage = 100 billion

• 20% can be avoided by timely warning = 20 billion

• Costs of an evacuation 150 thousand people ~ 75 million.

Economic value of using this system = avoided damage –costs

evacuations (false and hits)

In this case the value amounts ~ - 1,3 million per year

5 juli 2018

Enjoy your stay