research department … · 1 11 พฤษภาคม 2561 border trade research department th:...

1

11 พฤษภาคม 2561

Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

อัตราการเปลี่ยนแปลงรายปี (ปี 2551-60) % Average YoY Growth CAGR

Export 5.1 1.6Import 5.8 4.5

TH-MY Border Trade

การค้าชายแดนของไทยกับมาเลเซีย เดือน มี.ค. 2561 การสง่ออกชายแดนของไทยกบัมาเลเซีย เดือน มี.ค. 61 มลูค่า 24.4 Bn THB หดตวัถึง 24.8% YoY แต่ขยายตวั 10.0% MoM หากพิจารณา

Q1/61 มลูคา่ 71.9 Bn THB หดตวั 10.1% YoY และ 4.5% QoQ

การน าเข้าชายแดนของไทยกบัมาเลเซีย เดือน มี.ค. 61 มลูค่า 24.0 Bn THB ขยายตวั 15.0% YoY และ 22.7% MoM หากพิจารณา Q1/61 มลูคา่ 67.1 Bn THB ขยายตวั 13.4% YoY แตห่ดตวั 2.5% QoQ

ดลุการค้าชายแดนของไทยกบัมาเลเซีย เดือน มี.ค. 61 เกินดลุ 0.4 Bn THB เกินดลุลดลงมากจากช่วงเดียวกนัของปีก่อน และเดือนก่อน หากพิจารณา Q1/61 เกินดลุ 4.8 Bn THB เกินดลุลดลงมากจากชว่งเดียวกนัของปีก่อน และไตรมาสกอ่น

การประเมินอนัดับค่า อิงค่าต ่าสุด ค่าเฉลี่ยในช่วงเดียวกัน และค่าสูงสุด (ปี 2551-61)

Month Quarter Year YTD Quarter Month

TH-MY Border Trade

Export 3 3 4 3 3 3 Mar-18

Import 5 5 5 5 5 5 Mar-18

Trade Balance 2 2 3 2 2 2 Mar-18

All Periods Same PeriodsLatest

2345 1� � :

ท่ีมา: กรมการค้าตา่งประเทศ หมายเหต:ุ CAGR คือ Compound Annual Growth Rate

2


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

35

40

45

50

55

�

% TH-MY Border Trade:

Monthly Share of Total TH Border Export

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

15

20

25

30

35

�

Bn THBTH-MY Border Trade:

Monthly Export Value and Growth

Value (LHS) % YoY (RHS) % MoM (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

�


Monthly Share of Total TH Border Import

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

15

18

21

24

27

�


Monthly Import Value and Growth


-4

0

4

8

12

�


Monthly TH Border Trade Balance

-4

0

4

8

12

�


Monthly Trade Balance

3


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

30

40

50

60

70

�


Share of Total Export in Q1

MY Others

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

�

Bn THB TH-MY Border Trade:

Export Value and Growth in Q1

Value (LHS) Avg for 2008-2017 (LHS) % YoY (RHS)

25

35

45

55

65

75

�


Share of Total Import in Q1

MY Others

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

35

42

49

56

63

70

�


Import Value and Growth in Q1


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

�

Bn THB TH-MY Border Trade: Trade Balance in Q1

MY Others

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

�

Bn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Trade Balance in Q1

Value Avg for 2008-2017

4


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

35

45

55

65

75

�


Quarterly Share of Total TH Border Export

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

40

55

70

85

100

115

�


Quarterly Export Value and Growth

Value (LHS) % YoY (RHS) % QoQ (RHS)

48

53

58

63

68

73

�


Quarterly Share of Total TH Border Import

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

30

40

50

60

70

�


Quarterly Import Value and Growth


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

�


Quarterly TH Border Trade Balance

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

�

Bn THBTH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Trade Balance

5


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

0

10

20

30

40

Mar-17 Mar-18


Monthly Export Value by Border Checkpoint

Sadao Customs House, Songkhla Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla

Betong Customs House, Yala Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat

Tak Bai Customs House, Narathiwat Satul Customs House, Satul

Pattani Customs House, Pattani

Note: 2015-2017 are monthly averages.

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

�

Mn THBTH-MY Border Trade:

Monthly Export Value and Growth Sadao Customs House, Songkhla


0

5

10

15

20

25

Mar-17 Mar-18


Monthly Import Value by Border Checkpoint

Sadao Customs House, Songkhla Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla

Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat Wangprajan Customs House, Satul

Satul Customs House, Satul Tak Bai Customs House, Narathiwat

Betong Customs House, Yala Pattani Customs House, Pattani

Note: 2015-2017 are monthly averages.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Import Value and Growth Sadao Customs House, Songkhla


-4

0

4

8

12

Mar-17 Mar-18


Monthly Trade Balance by Border Checkpoint

Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla Betong Customs House, Yala

Pattani Customs House, Pattani Tak Bai Customs House, Narathiwat

Satul Customs House, Satul Wangprajan Customs House, Satul

Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat Sadao Customs House, Songkhla

Note: 2015-2017 are monthly averages. -8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Trade Balance

Sadao Customs House, Songkhla

6


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Export Value and Growth

(Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla


-60

0

60

120

180

240

100

200

300

400

500

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Export Value and Growth Betong Customs House, Yala


-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

2,000

3,500

5,000

6,500

8,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Import Value and Growth



-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

0

7

14

21

28

35

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Import Value and Growth Betong Customs House, Yala


0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

�

Mn THB



100

200

300

400

500

�

Mn THB


Betong Customs House, Yala

7


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-70

-35

0

35

70

105

140

0

30

60

90

120

150

�

Mn THB


(Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

�

Mn THB


(Tak Bai Customs House, Narathiwat


2,333.7% YoY

591.1

2,566.9% MoM

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

�

Mn THB


(Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat)


-300

0

300

600

900

1,200

0

2

4

6

8

�

Mn THB




2,231.9% 153,689.7%

11,611.9% YoY 634.0

23,496.9% MoM

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

�

Mn THB



-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

�

Mn THB



8


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

0

20

40

60

80

100

�

Mn THB


(Satul Customs House, Satul


2,785.4% YoY

2,973.4 % MoM

421.7

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Export Value and Growth Wangprajan Customs House, Satul


116.8% YoY

-200

0

200

400

600

0

5

10

15

20

25

�

Mn THB




9,9773% MoM

18,269.3% YoY

523.5

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

15

30

45

60

75

�

Mn THB


(Wangprajan Customs House, Satul


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

�

Mn THB



-519.1

415.7

-403.1

-64

-48

-32

-16

0

�

Mn THB



9


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

0

5

10

15

20

25

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Export Value and Growth(Pattani Customs House, Pattani


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Export Value and Growth in Q1

Sadao Customs House, Songhla)


-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

0

10

20

30

40

50

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Import Value and Growth(Pattani Customs House, Pattani


66,325.0% MoM 158,054.2%

,627.3% YoY

1,400.0% MoM

79,610.0% YoY

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

20,000

28,000

36,000

44,000

52,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Import Value and Growth in Q1

Sadao Customs House, Songkhla)


-28

-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

21

�

Mn THB


(Pattani Customs House, Pattani

-12,000

-9,000

-6,000

-3,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

�

Mn THBTH-MY Border Trade: Trade Balance in Q1

(Sadao Customs House, Songkhla)


10


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

�

Mn THB


Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla)


-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Export Value and Growth in Q1 Betong Customs House, Yala


-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

2,500

5,500

8,500

11,500

14,500

17,500

�

Mn THB


Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla)


-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

20

30

40

50

60

70

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Import Value and Growth in Q1(Betong Customs House, Yala


5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

�

Mn THB


(Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla)


300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

�

Mn THB


(Betong Customs House, Yala


11


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-40

-20

0

20

40

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

�

Mn THB




-100

0

100

200

300

400

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

�

Mn THB


(Tak Bai Customs House, Narathiwat)


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

400

500

600

700

800

900

�

Mn THB




-100

0

100

200

300

0

30

60

90

120

�

Mn THB




744.9%

-750

-600

-450

-300

-150

0

�

Mn THB


(Sungaikolok Customs House, Narathiwat


-80

-40

0

40

80

120

�

Mn THB




12


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

200

0

100

200

300

400

500

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Export Value and Growth in Q1(Satul Customs House, Satul)


997.6%

-105

-70

-35

0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

�

Mn THB




-100

-50

0

50

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Import Value and Growth in Q1(Satul Customs House, Satul)


414.6% 2,760.3%

-60

0

60

120

180

240

0

30

60

90

120

�

Mn THB


(Wangprajan Customs House, Stul


-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

�

Mn THB


(Satul Customs House, Satul)


-120

-90

-60

-30

0

�

Mn THB


(Wangprajan Customs House, Satul)


13


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

0

30

60

90

120

0

15

30

45

60

�

Mn THB


(Pattani Customs House, Pattani


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Export Value and Growth(Sadao Customs House, Songkhla


-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

�

Mn THB


(Pattani Customs House, Pattani)

Value (LHS)Avg for 2008-2017 (LHS)% YoY (RHS)

15,660.2%

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

20,000

28,000

36,000

44,000

52,000

60,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Import Value and Growth(Sadao Customs House, Songkhla


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

�

Mn THB




-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Trade Balance

(Sadao Customs House, Songkhla)

14


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-40

0

40

80

120

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

�


Quarterly Export Value and Growth(Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla


-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

400

800

1,200

1,600

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Export Value and Growth



-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Import Value and Growth



-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

�

Mn THB




9,000

19,000

29,000

39,000

49,000

�

Mn THB


(Padang Besar Customs House, Songkhla)

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

�


Quarterly Trade Balance (Betong Customs House, Yala

15


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

75

150

225

300

375

450

�

Mn THB




-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

150

300

450

600

750

�

Mn THB




-40

-20

0

20

40

60

300

450

600

750

900

�

Mn THB




-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

30

60

90

120

150

�

Mn THB




31,732.6% QoQ

3,337.0% YoY

669.0

-750

-600

-450

-300

-150

0

�

Mn THB



-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

�

Mn THB



16


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-100

0

100

200

300

0

30

60

90

120

�

Mn THB




562.3% QoQ

997.6% YoY

449.0

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Export Value and Growth(Wangprajan Customs House, Satul)


-150

0

150

300

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

�

Mn THB




5,807.2% YoY

3,930.9% QoQ

426.8

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

�

Mn THB




-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

�

Mn THB



-467.4

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

�

Mn THB



17


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

-120

0

120

240

360

480

0

15

30

45

60

75

�

Mn THB

TH-MM Border Trade: Quarterly Export Value and Growth(Pattani Customs House, Pattani


-150

0

150

300

450

0

15

30

45

60

75

�

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Quarterly Import Value and Growth(Pattani Customs House, Pattani)


1,109.5% 12,704.5% QoQ

75,603.9% YoY

1,554.5% 2,027.3% 1,540.0%

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

�

Mn THB



18


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mn THBTH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Export Value

�

16.0

17.5

19.0

20.5

22.0

23.5

25.0

26.5


Mn THBTH-MY Border Trade: Monthly Import Value

�

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M

Mn THBTH-MY Border Trade: Average Export Value

�

16.0

17.1

18.2

19.3

20.4

21.5

22.6

23.7

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Average Import Value

�

0

53

106

159

212

265

318

371

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Accumulated Export Value

�

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Accumulated Import Value

�

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12



Monthly Trade Balance

�

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M

Mn THB

TH-MY Border Trade: Accumulated Trade Balance

�

19


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

สินค้าส่งออกชายแดนที่ส าคญัของไทย Mn THB 2559 2560 Q1/61

1 พ ร 78,521.6 100,610.0 20,608.8

% YoY -2.1 28.1 -38.6

2 รื พวิ ร ์ รณ์แ ะ� ว ระ บ 29,622.0 38,423.2 8,870.7

% YoY 8.7 29.7 30.3

3 ผ ิภัณฑ ์ 2,851.3 32,634.5 5,636.2

% YoY -69.5 1,044.6 -19.5

4 รื �์ ัด ภ ใ แบบ � บฯ 6,817.9 11,328.0 5,087.8

% YoY 48.5 66.2 286.2

5 ไ แ รร 22,072.0 23,845.2 4,525.4

% YoY 33.7 8.0 -15.7

6 รถ ์ รณ์แ ะ� ว ระ บ 9,502.5 8,881.8 2,279.1

% YoY 4.8 -6.5 11.0

7 ถ ื 5,175.5 5,630.8 1,457.6

% YoY -3.4 8.8 8.0

8 แผ ว จรไฟฟ 4,857.5 4,772.4 1,210.6

% YoY 11.4 -1.8 -9.2

9 ผ ิภัณฑ ์ ็ แ ะ ็ 4,007.9 4,003.6 997.8

% YoY -6.2 -0.1 -10.6

10 รแ์ ะ รื ดิไฟฟ 5,801.2 5,129.1 994.8

% YoY -3.2 -11.6 -19.8

11 ื ๆ 89,035.0 77,293.3 20,226.7

% YoY 6.5 -13.2 7.2

รวม 258,264.3 312,551.9 71,895.4

% YoY 3.1 21.0 -10.1

ที : ร ร ด ระ ทศ

20


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

สินค้าน าเข้าชายแดนที่ส าคัญของไทย

Mn THB 2559 2560 Q1/61

1 รื พวิ รแ์ ะ รณ์ 25,457.2 31,255.6 9,993.7

% YoY 4.6 22.8 47.3

2 ท แ ็ แ ะจ แ ็ � รับ พวิ ร์ 23,571.8 27,474.4 8,122.4

% YoY 8.0 16.6 24.5

3 รื จั รที ใช ใ � รร แ ะ� ว ระ บ 20,563.9 26,947.9 7,500.4

% YoY 11.4 31.0 53.6

4 �ื บั ท ึ แ ะภ พ � ี 23,942.9 20,938.8 4,683.2

% YoY 2.4 -12.5 -11.3

5 � ว ระ บ พวิ ร์ 23,057.4 19,393.9 4,651.3

% YoY 1.3 -15.9 3.8

6 แผ ว จรไฟฟ 11,623.2 13,613.9 3,417.2

% YoY -3.7 17.1 55.6

7 รื จั รไฟฟ ื ๆ แ ะ� ว ระ บ 5,938.5 9,606.9 1,945.0

% YoY -31.9 61.8 -7.4

8 ไดโ ด ทร ซ�ิ รแ์ ะ รณ์ ึ วั 4,217.4 5,856.0 1,733.4

% YoY 162.7 38.9 35.6

9 ็ดพ � ิ 4,992.5 5,700.2 1,713.2

% YoY 5.5 14.2 11.1

10 � ว ระ บ แ ะ รณ์รว ทั ้โ ร รถแ ะ วัถั 5,874.1 6,845.2 1,613.9

% YoY -7.1 16.5 -8.0

11 ื ๆ 93,916.7 84,472.7 21,759.4

% YoY 2.7 -10.1 -2.8

รวม 243,155.5 252,105.3 67,133.1

% YoY 3.2 3.7 13.4

ที : ร ร ด ระ ทศ

21


Border Trade

Research Department

TH: Economic Report

การค้าชายแดนของไทย:

จุดสูงสุดและต ่าสุดในแต่ละช่วงเวลา ในระยะเวลา 11 ปี (ปี 2551-61)

% จาก % จาก

คา่สูงสุด คา่ต า่สุด

Export

เทยีบกบัทกุชว่งเวลา

ม.ีค. 61 24.4 -37.0 70.0 38.7 .ี . 54 14.3 . . 52

Q1/61 71.9 -28.8 50.1 101.0 Q1/54 47.9 Q1/52

2560 312.6 -17.6 37.8 379.4 2554 226.9 2552

เทยีบกบัชว่งเวลาเดยีวกนั

ม.ีค. 61 24.4 -37.0 45.1 38.7 .ี . 54 16.8 .ี . 52

Q1/61 71.9 -28.8 50.1 101.0 Q1/54 47.9 Q1/52

Import


ม.ีค. 61 24.0 -8.9 129.1 26.3 . . 60 10.5 พ. . 54

Q1/61 67.1 -2.5 83.3 68.8 Q4/60 36.6 Q1/52

2560 252.1 - 57.2 252.1 2560 160.4 2552


ม.ีค. 61 24.0 - 93.1 24.0 .ี . 61 12.4 .ี . 51

Q1/61 67.1 - 83.3 67.1 Q1/61 36.6 Q1/52

ผลตา่งจาก ผลตา่งจาก

คา่สูงสุด คา่ต า่สุด

Trade Balance


ม.ีค. 61 0.4 -21.6 3.8 22.0 .ี . 54 -3.4 . . 59

Q1/61 4.8 -50.7 7.4 55.4 Q1/54 -2.6 Q4/58

2560 60.4 -137.6 45.6 198.1 2554 14.8 2558


ม.ีค. 61 0.4 -21.6 - 22.0 .ี . 54 0.4 .ี . 61

Q1/61 4.8 -50.7 5.7 55.4 Q1/64 -1.0 Q1/59

Dateคา่ปจัจบุนั คา่สูงสุด Date คา่ต า่สุด

Bn THB คา่ปจัจบุนั คา่สูงสุด Date คา่ต า่สุด Date

research department … · 1 11 พฤษภาคม 2561 border trade research department th:...

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