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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This study is accomplished by Co – PLAN Institute for Habitat Development. However this work could not have been completed without the assistance of many actors. Co-PLAN extends its thanks and appreciation to the Ministry of Economy Trade and Energy (METE) and Ministry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration (MEFWA) as well as to the great input of many scientific and research institutions as: National Agency of Energy, the Institute of Hydro-Metrology, Institute of Hydraulic Works, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Energy Efficiency Centre, etc. Special thanks go to international (Ecofys BV) and field experts. They closely collaborated with Co-PLAN on the researches of different aspects of Renewable Energy Source Potentials. Without their time and expertise, this study would not have been possible. And finally Co-PLAN is grateful to the donor, Cord-aid for the financial support of this study, which is the main output in the framework of “Sustainable Energy for Albania” project.

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ABBREVIATIONS

BCHP – Biomass Combining Heating Power CDM – Clean Develop Mechanisms CER – Certificate of Emitting Reduction CHP – Combining Heating Power DH – District Heating EEC – Energy Efficiency Center ERE – Albanian Electricity Regulatory Authority GEF – Global Environment Facility GHG – Green House Gas GPP – Geothermic Power Plant HPP – Hydro Power Plant IHM – Institute of Hydro Meteorology IHW – Institute of Hydraulic Work KESH – Albanian Electro Energy Corporation MEFWA – Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration METE – Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Energy NAE – National Agency of Energy NSE – National Strategy of Energy PVPP – Photovoltaic Power Plant RES – Renewable Energy Sources RET – Renewable Energy Technologies SCHP – Small Combined Heating Power SHPP – Small Hydro Power Plant SWHS – Solar Water Heating System Toe – Ton Oil Equivalent TPP – Thermo Power Plant UNDP – United Nations Development Programme WEC – Wind Electro Central WPP – Wind Power Plant

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The world is living the end of the fossil fuel regime and the transition towards a new energy regime. The history of mankind knows a lot of civilizations, which failed due to the destruction of their energy regime and the lack of abilities to generate them. The civilization we are living is in a critical moment. The actual energy system, based since 20-30 years on the fossil fuels, is expected to pass through a huge shock. This is one of the main reasons why the developed countries have been directed towards other ways of using the renewable energy sources. The actual energy system in Albania is currently based completely at the hydro-energy. There are enormous doubts on its sustainability, as there are limited generation capacities towards the growing demand. On the other side it is limited with a considerable number of technical and non technical problems related to the net work loss and leading to a multi-year energy crisis. One of the main challenges of the Albanian energy sector is the diversification of the energy sources and the fulfilment of the needs by own country resources, decreasing the import dependence. The energy local crisis that has stucked Albania in the recent years is deepening the difference between the development of our country and more developed ones. Obviously, taking action based of the National Strategy of Energy (NSE) will bring about an improvement and fulfil the emergent energy demand. However, NSE does not provide a coherent vision on the long-term energy situation in Albania, as it does not take into account the international trends concerning fossil fuel prices and development in prices for renewable energy technologies (RET). Consequently Albania will soon be under the effect of another crisis, the global energy one. The indicators of this crisis are becoming quite visible and they are related to global energy system replacement from oil towards toward renewable energy sources. The study on “Assessment of the Renewable Energy Potentials in Albania” is closely focused in this area. It includes initially a space and quantity assessment of the renewable energy sources, identifying their locations and potentials. Further steeps of this study are: historical analyses of the energy sources used by different economy sectors followed by projection of energy demand and supply for the next 25 years, which are based on the NSE, taking into account future developments (growth of

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economy, reduction of fossil fuel resources, EU accession and European policy on RES/energy/climate change). Based on some scenarios, which have been considered as optimistic-realistic, a provision has been performed leading to an assessment of the amount of energy provided by RES for the next 25 years. The objective has been the assessment of the quantity, financial ($/kWh per produced energy) and quality (assessment of the emitting generated in case of other energy sources use) approach. This enables a better view on the importance of the renewable energy sources use towards the reduction of the energy import and the contribution on the total energy demand.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. 1 ABBREVIATIONS...................................................................................................... 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................... 5 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES .................................................................................. 7 I. Climate characteristics of Albania ........................................................................... 9

1.1 Air Temperature............................................................................................ 10 1.2 Solar radiation .............................................................................................. 10 1.3 Rain falls...................................................................................................... 11

II. Renewable energy sources in Albania ................................................................... 12 2.1 Biomass....................................................................................................... 12

2.1.1 Background ............................................................................................ 13 2.1.2 Potential ................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3 Installed capacity .................................................................................... 16 2.1.4 Characteristic features for Albania ............................................................. 16

2.2 Hydropower.................................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Background ............................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Potential ................................................................................................ 18 2.2.3 Installed capacity .................................................................................... 20 2.2.4 Characteristic features for Albania ............................................................. 21

2.3 Geothermal resources .................................................................................... 21 2.3.1 Background ............................................................................................ 22 2.3.2 Potential ................................................................................................ 23 2.3.3 Installed capacity .................................................................................... 27 2.3.4 Characteristic features for Albania ............................................................. 27

2.4 Wind energy................................................................................................. 27 2.4.1 Background ............................................................................................ 27 2.4.2 Potential ................................................................................................ 28 2.4.3 Installed Capacity.................................................................................... 32 2.4.4 Characteristic features for Albania ............................................................. 32

2.5 Solar energy................................................................................................. 33 2.5.1 Background ............................................................................................ 33 2.5.2 Potential ................................................................................................ 34

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2.5.3 Installed capacity .................................................................................... 37 2.5.4 Characteristic features for Albania ............................................................. 38

III. Projection of energy supply and demand in Albania ............................................... 39 3.1 Extracting and use of the energy sources in Albania ........................................... 40 3.2 The energy provided by the HPP and TPP.......................................................... 42 3.3 The provision of the energy demand divided by sectors ...................................... 43

IV. The forecast of the RES percentage in the overall fuel mix ...................................... 45 4.1Contribution of each RET on the energy demand projection .................................. 45

V. Evaluation of the energy/thermal unit cost for each RET .......................................... 49 VI. The reduction of the GHG emission based on the utilisation of RES........................... 52

6.1 Fossil fuel impact to human health and environment .......................................... 52 6.2 Emission reduction of RES use ........................................................................ 53 6.3 Kyoto Protocol and Clean Development Mechanisms Projects............................... 55

VII. Conclusions..................................................................................................... 59 VII. Recommendations ........................................................................................... 61 VIII. Literature ...................................................................................................... 61 Annex A ............................................................................................................... 65 Annex B ............................................................................................................... 69 Annex C ............................................................................................................... 73

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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figures

Figure 1 The climate division in Albania ....................................................................................... 9 Figure 2 Mean average air temperature in the main cities of Albania for the period 1961 – 2000........................................................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 3 Daily mean average solar radiation for the 3 metrological stations in Albania ............. 11 Figure 4 Average quantity of the monthly falls in the main cities of Albania during period of 1961 – 2000................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 5 The biomass CO2 cycle .................................................................................................. 13 Figure 6 Territorial distributions of forest according to main government regime .......................... 15 Figure 7 Run-off river and pumped storage hydropower ............................................................. 17 Figure 8 The map of the existing and the new SHPP in Albania ................................................. 19 Figure 9 Heat pump scheme........................................................................................................... 22 Figure 10 Territorial distributions of the heat flow ...................................................................... 25 Figure 11 Territorial distributions of temperature at depth of 100 m........................................... 26 Figure 12 Territorial distributions of annual average wind speed ................................................ 30 Figure 13 Territorial distributions of annual quantity of wind hours in Albania.......................... 31 Figure 14 Principle of a Solar Water Heating System (SWHS) ................................................... 33 Figure 15 Territorial distribution of average daily solar radiation in Albania.............................. 35 Figure 16 Territorial distribution of average quantity of sunshine hours in Albania ................... 36 Figure 17 Daily average solar irradiation in some European countries........................................ 38 Figure 18 The consume of energy sources divided by sector....................................................... 39 Figure 19 The production, consume & self sufficiency of oil supply.............................................. 40 Figure 20 The production and self sufficiency of primary energy sources for the period 1990 - 2004....................................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 21 The production of electricity from TPP and HPP for the period 1985 – 2004............. 42 Figure 22 The provision of energy demands divided by sectors ..................................................... 43 Figure 23 The supply of primary energy sources made-in country and imported............................ 44 Figure 24 Energy demand for household, service and agricultural sector in the total energy demand foreseen ........................................................................................................................... 45 Figure 25 Energy produced by the penetration of the renewable energy schemes and contribution on energy demand for household, service and agriculture sectors. .............................................. 48 Figure 26 The coverage of the imported energy demand through the renewable energy................. 48 Figure 27 Unit cost for each technology and each capacity [cent/kWh].......................................... 51

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Figure 28 GHG emitting avoided from RES usage ...................................................................... 55 Figure 29 The cycle of CDM Projects .......................................................................................... 58 Figure 30 The distribution of the annual average air temperatures for the period 1961-2000 ..... 66 Figure 31 The distribution of the annual average air distribution for the period 1961 – 2000..... 67

Tables Table 1 The distribution of the SHPP according to the zones ...................................................... 20 Table 2 The characteristic of new SHPP ...................................................................................... 21 Table 3 The distribution of the thermal springs with low enthalpy.............................................. 23 Table 4 The distribution of abandoned gas or oil wells................................................................ 24 Table 5 The energy density and average speed of wind in height of 10 m according to the cities....................................................................................................................................................... 28 Table 6 The windy hours, average speed and the energy density for the costal area, based on the land measurements........................................................................................................................ 29 Table 7 Preliminary Cost – Benefit analyses for each RET ......................................................... 50 Table 8 The emitting unit coefficients .......................................................................................... 53 Table 9 Emission reduction from the use of RES......................................................................... 54 Table 10 Monthly average air temperatures for the main cities of Albania for the period 1961 - 2000 (0C)....................................................................................................................................... 65 Table 11 The average monthly quantity of the falls for the main cities of Albania for the period 1961 - 2000 (mm) ......................................................................................................................... 65 Table 12 The solar radiation intensity for the 6 metrological stations [kWh/m2 day] .................. 68 Table 13 The main characteristics of 83 existing small water plant stations................................ 71 Table 14 The main characteristics of the identified small and medium HPP............................... 72 Table 15 The Characteristics of coals types in Albania................................................................ 73 Table16 The characteristics of major existing HPP in Albania.................................................... 73 Table 17 Characteristics of HPP planned to be constructed in Albania ....................................... 74 Table 18 Some technical characteristics of existing TPP in Albania ........................................... 74

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I. Climate characteristics of Albania

Albania is one of the Mediterranean countries. The geographic position of Albania gives to this country a Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by a wet and soft winter and a hot and dry summer. The climate regime of Albania is influenced by the frequency of occasional atmospheric systems, which are mainly the depressions coming from North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea including the anti-cyclones coming from Siberia and Azores, as well. One of the main other factors that influence the climate conditions of a certain region is the closeness to the sea (IHM 1978).

Figure 1 The climate division in Albania [Source: IHM 1978]

As far as the Albanian territory is concerned, it has been noticed that there is a considerable increase from the sea level and removal towards the inner part of the territory. The inner part of the country is basically mountainous. The influences of the before-mentioned factors have brought out a great number of indicators and climate parameters in different regions of Albania. As mentioned, the territory of Albania is divided in four main climate areas. Whole its elements are basically stable. These areas are name as following: The Field Mediterranean Area, The Hilly Mediterranean Area, The Pre-mountainous Mediterranean Area and Mountainous Mediterranean Area.

Field Mediterranean Area Hilly Mediterranean Area Pre-mountainous Mediterranean Area Mountainous Mediterranean Area

10

0

6

12

18

24

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

[°C]

1.1 Air Temperature

The distribution of the temperatures in Albania presents a considerable variability. The annual average temperature is 8-9 0C in the mountainous area up to 17 0C in the seaside south-west area. During the year, the curb of the temperatures in the whole country is quite regular with a maximum in the summer months and the minimum in the winter months, as presented in the Figure 2. The period of the average of these calculations is during the years 1961-2000 (Mustaqi and Sanxhaku, 2006).

Figure 2 Mean average air temperature in the main cities of Albania for the period 1961 – 2000.

[Source: IHM 2006]

The Annex A shows some tables with average middle monthly temperatures in the main cities for a period of 40 years. Some graphics that indicate the annual progress of the air temperature for the last 10 years are presented, as well. It is very interesting to analyze the data given in Annex A. It results that the variability of the temperatures in July (the highest) and January (the lowest) is lower than the one in the stations within the country. Concretely, in Vlora this difference is approximately 15 0C, in Kukes approximately 21.5 0C. This fact confirms the influence of the seaside in the territories around it. This influence does not allow a decrease of the air temperature during winter and a high increase during summer.

1.2 Solar radiation

Figure 3 presents the daily mean average solar radiation according to the months for 3 main meteorological stations in Albania. It shows, as well, the existence of huge differences between the different seasons and stations in the country. According to these data, Peshkopia station,

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0

2

4

6

8

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

kWh/

m2

Peshkopi Tirana Fier

located in North-East shows a difference from a minimum of 1,5 kWh/m2 in December to a maximum of 6.25 kWh/m2 in July. The same phenomenon happens in the other stations as well (EEC 2005).

Figure 3 Daily mean average solar radiation for the 3 metrological stations in Albania

[Source: EEC, 2006]

The ratio between the month of the highest solar radiation and the one of the minimal solar radiation varies from the smallest values of 4 for the stations of Erseka and Saranda to the values of 5 kWh/m2 for Fier and Peshkopi. Annex A includes a detailed table with data for each station.

1.3 Rain falls

The rainfalls in Albania have a Mediterranean regime. They are mainly active during winter months (65-75 % of the annual quantity) and less during the summer ones. Albania is characterized from a huge variation as far as the territorial distribution is concerned. The annual amount varies from 650 mm in the South-East to 2800 mm in the Alps of Albania. The average amount of falls for the whole territory is approximately 1400 mm annually. This is an indicator for a huge slack of falls, which can be used for energy. Below there is a graphic of the average amount of falls for the period of 40 years: 1961 – 2000. Compared to the temperatures, the falls’ regime in the last 10 years can be easily distinguished from previous one. The detail amount on the falls in the last 10 years is enclosed in Annex A.

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0255075

100

125150175200

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.May.Jun. Jul. Aug.Sep. Oct. Nov.Dec.

mm

Figure 4 Average quantity of the monthly falls in the main cities of Albania during period of

1961 – 2000. [Source: IHM 2006]

II. Renewable energy sources in Albania

In this chapter, the most relevant renewable energy sources are taken to the light. Each source is briefly introduced and described.

2.1 Biomass

The term biomass covers a wide variety of both fuel and conversion technologies. Usually, the term biomass refers to woody or agricultural products being converted into useful energy through different conversion technologies (Ecofys BV 2006). Biomass often refers to solid materials such as wood, branches, industrial wood waste, urban solid waste and agricultural residues (agriculture plants, animal feeding); whereas bio-fuel refers to the (final) products that are liquids. Important conversion technologies are: Burning, incineration Gasification Digestion

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Figure 5 The biomass CO2 cycle [Source: Ecofys BV, 2006]

We stick here to woody biomass and agricultural residues.

2.1.1 Background

For ages, Albanians rely on fuel wood for cooking their food and heating their homes. Therefore, there is nothing new about biomass resources. However, it is the conversion technology and the size of these different new technologies that make things new. Biomass can be used as fuel for power plants (electricity), heat boilers (heat) and cogeneration (both heat and electricity). New plants can be constructed, but biomass can also replace coal (lignite, anthracite) in existing power stations, up to a certain percentage. Especially older power stations, which can deal with a variety of fuel qualities, might well be able to deal with biomass, next to fossil fuels such as lignite and anthracite. The term is then ‘co-firing’.

2.1.2 Potential

Biomass resources, woods, are plentiful available in Albania, especially in the mountainous regions. This does not mean automatically, though, that the potential for biomass is high. The woods are protected and/or part of nature reserves, or there are claims from logging/building/furniture industries. This means, woods have other economical and nature reserves, more important than those as biomass. On the European market, we see therefore that

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secondary woody materials are more and more being utilized as biomass, for example by compacting (pelletising or briquetting) sawdust or wood chips into a uniform product that can be traded in Europe and possibly worldwide (Ecofys BV 2006). Obviously, concerns about selling out the woods should be dealt with; the sustainability of woods and the contribution to biodiversity could be at stake. Woods and forests should be treated as natural reserve. An example to combat the abuse of woods is the introduction of the FSC label (‘Forestry Stewardship Council’), with which woods can be exploited for the different purposes, and still have enough time to be regenerated once the trees are felled. According to some approximate estimation, the energy potential from agricultural residues were calculated at approximately around 800 toe/year in 1980; while in 2001 were around 130 toe/year. The potential of urban wastes from the main Albanian cities was calculated as approximately 405615 ton oil equivalent (Toe), predicted for the year 2010 (EBRD 2004). The wood sources in Albania are concentrated in the forestry zones that cover around 38.2% of the total surface. The data on forest resources are based on inventories done every 10 years from the Forestry Directorate subordinated to the Ministry of Agriculture. Total forecasted resources reach some 125 million m3 (14.3 toe). Forests are classified in these major categories: high forests which represent 47-50% of the total wood resources; copses which are 29-30% of the total resources; and bushes, which are 24-25% of the total wood resources. From the three aforementioned categories, 10% of high forests, 50% of copses and 100% of bushes are used as fuel wood. From this data, proven resources of fuel wood are respectively 5.87, 18.25 and 30 million m3. The total proven reserves of fuel wood are considered about 6 Mtoe (Hizmo 2006). The energy potential from animal residue's as well as for agricultural residue potations is calculated at approximately 70 [toe/year] 12 740 GJ in 1995 with a trend to be increased in the future. These numbers should be considered estimates; a more comprehensive study should be carried out for real validation.

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Figure 6 Territorial distributions of forest according to main government regime

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2.1.3 Installed capacity

It is expected that, apart from a wide variety of old wood stoves and furnaces working on wood, several modern wood boilers are in operation, possibly at wood industry locations, to heat production halls and facilities. The increase of the biomass contribution is primarily based on a more efficient use of the fire wood. The actual average yield of fire woods is 35-40%. It is foreseen that in 2025 Albania will have a penetration of family market heaters with an average yield of 75-85%.

2.1.4 Characteristic features for Albania

As a rugged country, with limited fossil fuel resources (lignite), and an economy that is still close to its agricultural roots, there are good opportunities to develop the biomass potential much further. Environmental concerns should be taken care of, in order not to have a continuous and clean supply of indigenous energy and to prevent a sell out of the natural resources of the country. Actually, from the categories mentioned above, the wood waste from the wood industry and solid urban waste biomass can be of a considerable contribution. Biomass from the agriculture is connected with agricultural plants being used to feed the animals during winter time. A biomass group, which can be very profitable, consist of the cores of olive, peaches, etc. These cores that are waste of alimentary industry can be burnt supplying warm water or steam for different technology processes in the alimentary industry. The biomass from the so-called energetic plants is not applied yet in Albania. It still needs to be stressed the importance of the incentive policies on the application of these kinds of plants. Another important group that can be taken into consideration on the energy supply is the high richness of bushes. They can be considered without any doubt, as a very good source of renewable energy, as they will always be growing up. Whereas biomass produced from the animal breeding can not be taken into consideration due to a low number of the house animals and lack of division of farms (a farm consist of a very small number of cows and other animals) and a small amount of waste, which actually are being used as organic fertilizer.

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2.2 Hydropower Hydropower is a form of renewable energy that captures the potential energy of flowing water to convert it into electricity. A distinction is made between: Run-off river systems, where (a part of) the river flow is captured and led along a turbine. Pumped storage hydropower, where a lake is used as storage system in order to use the

differences in availability of power,

Figure 7 Run-off river and pumped storage hydropower [Source: HERMES 1997]

The latter system operates to pump up water levels when the energy supply is cheap (for example at night, or after the winter) and to allow the outflow of water from the storage lake when the availability of peak capacity is low (and the electricity price is high). Large scale hydropower plants are sometimes not (fully) acknowledged as sources of renewable energy, because of the large environmental effects on habitats turning a valley into a basin for the hydropower plant, removing large numbers of people, animals and agricultural land (Ecofys BV 2006).

2.2.1 Background

Hydropower has been available since late 19th century on the Balkan Peninsula generating therefore one of the first ‘industrial’ forms of renewable energy. Several hydropower plants from the early 20th century, have fallen in dismay and are not or not fully been operated at full capacity. In Albania, the highest profit from the hydro-energy is due to the huge water power stations. A high interest is the building of the small hydro power plant (SHPP). A number of 83 SHPP have been built until 1988. Initially, the construction of the SHPP, has intended the energy

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supply of the remote mountainous area. Today, the energy production of SHPP is related to the Albanian energy system. Actually it results that only a part out of the 83 existing SHPP are functioning. The rest is out of use due to different reasons. In general, all the existing SHPP have been constructed in attractive areas, taking into consideration the potential and availability aspects of water and hydraulic charge for the electric production energy. The major part of the SHPP are in very bad conditions due to the neglecting and the arbitrary destruction during the riots and tumults of 1997 and afterwards. The equipment is highly damaged and stolen. Since water is highly used in summer for irrigation or potable water, there is no energy production during season. There is no documentation for the water source hydrology, as it is known that water supply is the crucial parameter for energy (Xhelepi 2006).

2.2.2 Potential

Although a substantial portion of the current electricity supply of Albania is covered with hydropower, the potential is clearly larger, due to different sources and uneven relieve as far as topography is concerned. The highest profit from the water energy is realized through the usage of huge hydropower stations, but a considerable interest presents the use of the water energy through the SHPP. Albania has high amount of hydro-energy potential that goes up to 16 billion kWh, 30-35% out of which can be used. The map of the existing and new SHPP is shown below.

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Figure 8 The map of the existing and the new SHPP in Albania

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2.2.3 Installed capacity

Until 1998, a number of 83 SHPP have been built in Albania with a installed power of 50 to 1200 kW and a capacity of 25 MW. These SHPP are of the derivation type and they use the water sources and incomes nearby. The major parts of SHPP equipments are maid in: Austria, Germany, China, Hungary, and Italy. Another part of them are produced in Albania. The turbines are: FRANCIS, PELTON and BANKI, while the generators are Synchronous, mainly of a low power. The average age of these SHPP is 25 years old. The following table can be provided by classifying the 83 SHPP according to the regions (more detail characteristics are presented on Annex B).

The distribution of SHPP according to the zones The divisions of HPP according to the zones

Power installed

(kW)

The Annual Production Capacity

(000/kWh) Zone 1 (Bulqize, Diber) 3374.5 15370 Zone 2 (Elbasan, Gramsh, Librazhd) 2040 11490 Zone 3 (Kolonje, Korce, Pogradec, Devoll) 2893 17140 Zone 4 (M. Madhe, Tropoje) 1120 8190 Zone 5 (Gjirokaster, Permet, Sarande, Tepelene) 1366 4760 Zone 6 (Mat, Mirdite, Lac, Shkoder) 1320 1030 Zone 7 (Skrapar) 420 1200 Zone 8 (Vlore) 144.7 420 Zone 9 (Has, Puke, Kukes) 599 2420 Total 13 277 62020

Table 1 The distribution of the SHPP according to the zones

The studies show that there is the possibility of building new SHPP with a capacity of 140 MW and annual production of 680 GWh. All the SHPP are of the derivation type, without dam and catchments. From the 41 studied SHPP it results: (detailed characteristics are presented on Annex B). As far as the territorial distribution is concerned, it results that 28 SHPP with a power of 100000 kW can be built in the North, generating 65% of the total power. Whereas 13 SHPP with a power of 40000 kW can be built in the South generating 35% of the total power.

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Nr. of SHPP The characteristics of new SHPP

4 8 8 15 3 3

Have a power up to 500 kW Have a power up to 501-1,000 kW Have a power up to 1,001-2,000 kW Have a power up to 2,001-5,000 kW Have a power up to 5,001-10,000 kW Have a power up to 10,000 kW

19 22

Are built on hydro-technical works. Are new axes

17

13 11

Power of N = 62.000 kW are with project-ideas and designed implementations. Power of N = 56.000 kW are with design-idea and study Power of N = 22.000 kW are identified.

Table 2 The characteristic of new SHPP

2.2.4 Characteristic features for Albania

Albania is ranked as a country of considerable water richness with a hydrograph distribution in all territory. Albania, with it surface of 28748 km2, has a hydrographical distribution of 44000 km2, or 57% more than state territory. The hydrographical territory of Albania has an average of 400 mm rain per year. There is snow in the height of 1000 m, which remains for several months and ensures the water supply for the rivers and their bridges for the period of spring and summer. Due to irregular distribution there are considerable changes in the rivers and their branches. During the winter season the water flow income are quite high, while during summer they decrease in a considerable amount. This is the reason that flooding is 70% in winter and 30% in summer and autumn.

2.3 Geothermal resources Geothermal resource consists of underground layers or springs that contain water with a temperature level which is enough to gain useful forms of energy. Usually, the water is heated through the higher temperatures in the earth core. The water temperate level can be used in the buildings for heating with low temperature directly or with the help of heat pumps. In case of very high temperatures or when the water is in the form of steam, electricity is produced. Here, focus is on the utilization of geothermal resources for heating purposes, where it is expected that

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most resources are on a moderate temperature level, i.e. they need to be ‘thermally treated’ by heat pumps.

Figure 9 Heat pump scheme [Source: HERMES 1997]

2.3.1 Background Albania is actually in the feasibility phase of assessing the geothermic energy use potentials. The geothermic situation of Albanides presents two directions for the use of geothermic energy, which has not been used so far. Firstly, the thermal sources with low enthalpy and maximum temperature up to 80°C. These natural sources are in a wide territory of Albania, from the South bordered to Greece and in the North-East part of it. Secondly, the usage of the deep vertical well of the abandoned oil and gas sources can be used for heating system. The temperatures of 145 deep well in mines and different levels have been measured. The challenge with this type of renewable energy is not the availability of these resources, but how to utilize these abundant resources of heat in an economical way.

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2.3.2 Potential Geothermal resources are widely available in Albania. Like the neighbouring countries, the potential of geothermal heat is large. There are many thermal springs of low enthalpy with a maximal temperature up to 80 ºC as well as many wells (abandoned gas or oil) in Albania, which represent a potential for geothermal energy. The geothermal field is characterized by relatively low values of temperature. The temperature at a depth of 100 meters varies from 8 to 20ºC. The highest temperatures (up to 68ºC) at 3000 meters depth have been measured in the plane regions of western Albania. The temperature is 105.8ºC at 6000 meters depths. The lowest temperature values have been recorded in the mountainous regions. There are many thermal springs and wells of low enthalpy. Their water has temperatures up to 65.5ºC (Frasheri at al 2004). Different characteristics of thermal spring and wells with low enthalpy are given in the following tables.

Geographical co-ordinates No

Name of spring and region

Temp.

°C Width V Length L

Debit l/s

1 Mamuras 1 dhe 2 21-22 41°31'3" 19°38'6" 11.7 2 Shupal 29.5 41°26'9" 19°55'24”

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Geographical co-ordinates No.

Name of well

Temp. °C Width V Length L

Debit l/s

1 Kozani 8 65.5 41°06' 20°01'6” 10.3 2 Ishmi 1/b 60 41°29.2' 19°40.4' 3.5 3 Letan 50 41007’9” 20o22’49” 5.5 4 Galigati 2 45-50 40°57'6” 20°09'24” 0.9 5 Bubullima 5 48-50 41°19'18” 19°40'36” 6 Ardenica 3 38 40°48'48” 19°35'36” 15-18 7 Semani 1 35 40°50' 19°26 5 8 Semani 3 67 40o 46’12” 19o22’24” 30 9 Ardenica 12 32 40°48'42” '19°35'42” 10 Verbasi 2 29.3 1-3

Table 4 The distribution of abandoned gas or oil wells

[Source: Frasheri at al 2004] The thermal spring and wells are located in three areas: the geothermic area of Kruje, Ardenica and Peshkopi. Kruja geothermal Area contains the majority of geothermal resources in Albania. The most important resources, explored so far, are located in the Northern part of Kruja Geothermal Area, from Llixha-Elbasan in the South to Ishmi, in the North of Tirana. In Tirana-Elbasani area heat in place is (Ho) (5.87 x 1018 – 50.8 x 1018) J, the identified resources are (0.59 x 1018 – 5.08 x 1018) J, while the specific reserves ranges are between values of 38.5 – 39.6 GJ/m2. In the southern part of this area, where is located Galigati – Sarandaporo zone, has been identifying lower concentration of resources 20.63 GJ/m2, while geothermal resources up to 0.65 x 1018J. Ardenica Area. Ardenica reservoir has (0.82 x 1018) J. Resources density varies from (0.25-0.39) GJ/m2. The boreholes have been abandoned and are actually awaiting for renewed investments. In order use the geothermal energy, the reconstruction of the wells containing fountains of hot water is needed, when technically possible. Peshkopia Area. Water temperature and big yield, stability, and also aquifer temperature of Peshkopia Geothermal Area are similar with those of Kruja Geothermal Area. Therefore the geothermal resources of Peshkopia Area have been estimated to be similar to those of Tirana- Elbasani area.

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Figure 10 Territorial distributions of the heat flow

26

Figure 11 Territorial distributions of temperature at depth of 100 m

27

2.3.3 Installed capacity Apart from some Spa’s using geothermal resources for treating patients or clients, there are basically no house warming systems used out of them.

2.3.4 Characteristic features for Albania It is explore that geothermal resources are available in the majority of the country. There might be some limitation in the coastal areas due to infiltration in the salty sea water. 2.4 Wind energy Since a few centuries, mankind is able to use the wind power through the wind mills. As from the mid seventies, modern wind turbines have been developed with the aim to produce clean electricity. Technology for wind energy has tremendously advanced the last years, leading to (Ecofys BV 2006): • Larger wind turbines • Blades manufactured from composite materials • Higher reliability • Lower noise levels (at the source, the rotor) • Modern pitching technologies for the blades • Direct drive technologies to reduce maintenance, • Systems to stop operating automatically to reduce flickering and bird fatalities

2.4.1 Background

Currently, most of new wind turbines sold in Europe are in the 2-4 Megawatt range. The trend of offshore wind turbines is even higher. Offshore conditions are much harsher; therefore reliability and a reduction of maintenance costs are key elements for economical operation. Other types of wind turbines are available on the market during the last few years. They are called urban wind turbines and are much smaller in production capacity (around 5 kilowatt). Nevertheless differing from the other larger version they can be installed in an urban environment, such as roofs of the buildings.

28

2.4.2 Potential

The presence of wind can vary significantly from on different locations and time periods. Wind energy specialists sometimes work on the annual average wind speed. Although it might be a good indicator for a certain location (e.g. more than 6 meters per second), it does not necessarily mean that it functions economically well. The height of the turbines (‘hub height’) plays an important role, as well. Due to characteristics of wind flow, the wind speed is usually higher at higher altitudes. The developments of new types of wind turbines have therefore resulted in larger and higher turbines (Ecofys BV 2006). The Institute of Hydro-Meteorology (IHM) is the only institute that deals with the daily measurements of wind (three times/per day) in the main meteorological stations located in a standard height of 10 meters. The wind is highly influenced from orographia. One single barrier (in direction or speed) generates high variances in the measurements of the station (in speed or direction). This is the main reason that such stations are located in open areas (free of any kind of barrier). It is important to point out that the stations are, as well, located in climate representative areas, regardless the wind energy potential zones. The tables below show the wind speed and the energy density for some windy areas/regions that allow assessment of the wind potentials.

Month Durres Kryevidh Tepelene Sarande Vlore January 4.20 5.00 5.80 4.90 5.10 February 4.50 5.10 5.70 4.90 5.20 March 4.20 4.60 5.90 4.80 4.50 April 4.10 4.50 4.30 4.60 4.40 May 3.60 3.70 4.60 4.30 4.10 June 3.40 4.10 4.40 4.50 4.10 July 3.30 4.30 3.50 4.60 3.90 August 3.20 4.00 3.50 4.40 3.80 September 3.30 4.30 4.10 4.10 4.00 October 3.60 4.70 5.30 4.50 4.50 November 4.20 4.90 4.70 4.70 4.60 December 4.40 5.10 5.60 5.00 5.00 Annual 3.833 4.525 4.783 4.608 4.433 Density (W/m2) 75 -150 100- 230 100-235 110-250 100- 230

Table 5 The energy density and average speed of wind in height of 10 m according to the cities [Source: P. Mitrushi, 2006]

29

Table 6 The windy hours, average speed and the energy density for the costal area, based on the land measurements [Source: P. Mitrushi, 2006]

Although IHM has done relevant measurements, they are fragmented and can be useful for a general idea. However, these data are based on measurements made by anemometers placed 10 m height above ground level. It therefore makes it difficult to judge the real wind energy potential. It must be pointed out that the meteorological stations are located in climate representative areas of the regions. Therefore, the natural potential of wind energy should be greater. Consequently, the map showing the territory wind average speed (Figure 12) is a schematic map (there are no space gradients available). As a result, it shows only a number of regions characterized by high wind speed. Nevertheless, the main regions with high wind energy potentials are identified and they are: Shkoder (Velipoje, Cas), Lezhe (Ishull Shengjin, Tale, Balldre), Durres (Ishem, P.Romano), Fier (Karavasta, Hoxhara 1, Hoxhara 2), Vlore (Akerni), Tepelene, Kryevidh, Sarande. However, it is quite difficult to plan an exact distribution of the territory wind speed. A detailed study includes the modeling of the speed wind taking into the consideration topography, as well. According to the studies performed so far on the special territory parts, it results that a wind speed increase is closely related to the height increase over the sea level. Some deviations can however be noticed in the narrow valleys of the rivers or mountainous saddles where, as a result of air streams convergences, the wind speed increases.

10 m 50 m 75 m Hour/year m/s W/m2 m/s W/m2 m/s W/m2

6230 > 3 30 3.9 60 4.5 100 5000 > 4 70 5.2 160 6.0 250 4300 > 5 150 6.5 300 7.5 500 3100 > 6 250 7.8 550 9.0 800 1400 > 7 400 9.1 830 10.5 1300 Vmed Dens. 4.5 m/s 100 6.0 m/s 250 7.0 m/s 400

30

Figure 12 Territorial distributions of annual average wind speed

31

Figure 13 Territorial distributions of annual quantity of wind hours in Albania

32

2.4.3 Installed Capacity

It needs to be pointed out that actually no kWh of energy is produced out of wind in Albania. This does not happen not due to the lack of wind potential, but because of the lack of assessment of wind energy potentials. The actual available limited meteorological information serves only for a preliminary evaluation on the wind energy potential. Base on the actual conditions of Albania, it is foreseen that 4% of the total amount of electric energy produced in country (around 400 GWh/year) until 2025 to be produced from wind. It is assumed that a priority will be given to the buildings of 20 Wind Electro Central (WEC) near 20 pumping stations located along the Adriatic Sea, avoiding flooding protection as well. A considerable number of areas with high wind energy potentials are identified in the Seaside Lowland, near these 20 pumping stations are located (that looking for 30 GWh/year or 0.7% of the actual national electric energy production) (Mitrushi 2006). The average annual wind speed in these areas is 4-6 m/s (height 10 m), and the annual energy density is 100-250 W/m2. This potential is considered as low, but it can be improved, by using the height of 50 m, where the speed is 6-8 m/s, and energy density is 250-600 W/m2.

2.4.4 Characteristic features for Albania

The main part of the territory (approximately 2/3 of the whole surface) is hilly-mountainous tending to be more mountainous towards East. The costal line is 345 km in the direction of North – South. The major part of it lies along the field coast part, and the other part is near the south mountainous coast. The main directions of the wind are Northwest – Southeast and Southwest – Northeast, with a dominating direction from sea towards. Inside the territory, the direction and the wind intensity vary considerably from one location to another. Since Albania is close to the sea and it is a mountainous country, it is expected that at some locations, wind turbines have a good pay back time. However, only very limited wind resource information is available to justify investments in successful wind energy projects. The plains to the sea in the North might offer some options (Ecofys BV 2006).

33

2.5 Solar energy

With solar energy, we distinguish usually two conversion types: solar thermal, solar PV (or photovoltaic solar energy)

In this study we are focusing more on solar thermal energy. Solar thermal energy is the process where solar radiation is converted into thermal energy. The most common system is the solar water heater system (SWHS). The water is heating by the sun through a collector, usually placed on the roof of the building. The warm water is stored in a tank or directly used to heat the house or preheat another boiler.

Figure 14 Principle of a Solar Water Heating System (SWHS)

[Source: www.soltherm.org]

Sometimes a distinction is made between active systems (such as a SWHS) and passive systems. An example for a passive system is a greenhouse that captures solar radiation without any additional process.

2.5.1 Background

The Preskot model is used for the assessment of the territorial distribution of solar radiation. The model has been adapted to the climate conditions of Albania, taking into consideration the multi-annual series of solar radiation (Mustaqi and Sanxhaku 2006). The following factors are considered as crucial in the assessment of solar radiation: The geographic location of the country, which defines the possible theoretic potentials of the

solar energy, taken from the horizontal surface of the earth.

34

Topography (closely connected to the scale of horizon hided from natural barriers), which defines the practical possible potential of the solar energy taken from the earth horizontal surface.

Baric systems (their occasionally and time duration), which define the characteristics of the cloudiness regime

It is very clear that the last two factors have the major impact in the identification of the solar energy characteristics. The influence of both factors is at the same direction, the decrease of solar radiation towards the inner part of the territory. Concretely, the heliographic measure spots (at the same time the inhabited areas) are located at the end of the valleys of the rivers. As a result the horizon is relatively closed to the mountainous slopes. It is evident that the solar radiation quantity measured in the station is smaller that the one taken on earth surface located in a plateau or locations of a relative height. On the other side, analyzing the cloudiness regime in the territory, it results that, an average of 5 degrees in the field areas and of 6-7 degrees in the mountainous areas. Consequently, the reduction of the solar radiation can also be noticed. The reducing effect of topography factor can be avoided by recommending areas as plateaus in considerable heights, with an open horizon. Meanwhile, it is important to point out that the effect of causality and the duration of baric systems can not be avoided because of the stochastic character of the atmospheric phenomena. The result of these factors is the distribution in the territory of the annual solar radiation, as presented in the following maps (figure 15 and 16).

2.5.2 Potential

As it can be seen from this map, Albania has a considerable energy coming through the solar radiation. This quantity varies from 1200 kWh/m2 in the northeast part of the country (the area than receives the lowest quantity of the solar radiation) up to 1600 kWh/m2 in Myzeqe area, which is the area that has a considerable quantity of this energy kind (Hido 2006). The average of daily solar radiation can change from a minimum of 3.2 kWh/m2 in the Northeast (day in Kukes) up to a maximum of 4.6 kWh/m2 in the South-Western (day in Fier). Therefore, Albania has an average of daily solar radiation of 4.1 kWh/m2, which can be considered as a good solar energy regime.

35

Figure 15 Territorial distribution of average daily solar radiation in Albania

36

Figure 16 Territorial distribution of average quantity of sunshine hours in Albania

37

Most areas of Albania benefit more than 2200 hours of sunshine per year, while the average for the whole country is about 2400 hours. The Western part receives more than 2500 hours of sunshine per year. Fier has a record of 2850 hours. The number of the solar days in Albania has an average of 240 - 260 days annually with a maximum of 280 - 300 days annually in the South-Western part. The potential of solar thermal is not merely determined by irradiation characteristics (which positively considered in Albania) but also by availability of roof space and orientation and inclination of the roof, the collector and storage as well (Ecofys BV2006). More detail for some cities you will find on Annex B.

2.5.3 Installed capacity

The penetration of solar panel systems are used for thermal power production during the last decade increased from 0 to 23 GWh in 2001. Nevertheless, based on the surveys of National Agency of Energy (NAE), the number of the installed solar panels in 2003 is increased with 35% compared to 2002. In absolute values, the number of solar panels installed in 2003 was 2800 units, while in 2005 it is expected to go beyond 4000 units (MIE and NAE 2004). Energy Efficiency Centre (EEC) has designed and implemented in kindergartens and schools three projects funded by EU in 2002-2003. The investment amount has been around 85000 EUR installing more than 200 m2 of solar panels. Based on the assistance of UNDP during 2003, an amount of 160 m2 of solar panels has been installed. The total of the investment reached 70000 USD (EEC 2002). Nehemia Foundation, has installed 168 m2 solar panels and a contemporary heating systems in three schools of Pogradec with a beneficiary number of 650 students. In the framework of this project 28 m2 photovoltaic systems have been installed aiming to supply the computers and lightening system when power cuts. Another significant project in the area of solar panels is currently under implementation. Global Environment Facility (GEF) through UNDP is supporting the Government of Albania to accelerate the market development of SWHS as one of the measures to reduce the growing electricity consumption and disparity between demand and the domestic power generation capacity. This country program aims at accelerating the market development of solar water heating. It is expected that the end of the projects meets the following: the installation of 75,000 m2 of new installed collector area, an annual sale of 20,000 m2 and with expected continuing

38

2.53.0

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TheNetherlands

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[kWh/m2/day]

growth to reach the set target of 540,000 m2 of total installed SWH capacity by 2020 (UNDP 2005). The project is financed partly by GEF through UNDP, and Government of Albania as well as from other donors and private sector. If Albania would develop the solar panels at similar level of Greece, the potential production of warm water would be equivalent to the energy production of 360 GWh thermo (or 75 MW thermo of the installed power). These amounts correspond to a total surface of 300,000 m2 (or 0.3 m2/family. The penetration in such countries as Israel, Greece, Turkey is actually over 0.45 m2/familje), which can be taken as a potential indicator for Albania for the coming 20 years.

2.5.4 Characteristic features for Albania

The position of Albania, which has a Mediterranean climate, generates favourable conditions for a sustainable development of the solar energy. The high intensity of solar radiation, its relatively long duration, the temperature and the air moisture are exactly the elements that contribute to this effect. The Mediterranean climate with a soft and wet winter and a hot and dry summer enables Albania to have higher potentials in solar energy use than the average of the European countries.

Figure 17 Daily average solar irradiation in some European countries. [Source: EEC 2001]

39

0%

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

OtherAgricultureTransportIndustryServiceHouseholds

III. Projection of energy supply and demand in Albania

The energy sector is one of the most important ones in the country economy. The supply of the energy according to the sectors is based on hydro-energy, being considered as the primary energy source up to the fossil fuels, wood etc. The history of the traditional sources can be carefully considered for a further analyses and forecast of the energy demand. This would help to an effective intervention and better control of the increasing trend in energy demand as well as to decrease the existing energy dependence. This analyses is important to assess the energy needs afforded by RES, which have never been considered in the energy analyses.

Sector Industry Transport Households Service 1990 50% 6% 14,6% 5,4% 2004 17% 33% 20% 18%

Figure 18 The consume of energy sources divided by sector

[Source: NSE 2004] Taking into consideration the energy consume in different sectors, it can be easily noticed that this consume has huge ups and downs during the years 1990-2004, as shown in the figure above. As the country was oriented towards the heavy industry before 1990, the energy consume was considerably higher than the first years of transition. During the years 1995-2000 the energy consume has decreased up to 1/3 of the consume level of 1990. It can be easily concluded that there are high differences which call for future special attention on the energy demand.

40

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3.1 Extracting and use of the energy sources in Albania

The oil sources in Albania are distributed in the West and Southwest. They derivate mainly from the two structures, the sand rocks and lime stones. The geologic slack of oil is assessed of 260 million m3, 54 million m3 out of which are accessible. The geological slacks of oil in the sea are assessed to be up to 200 milion m3, 50 milion m3 out of which can be taken out1. The usage of oil in Albania has started since 1918, whereas the peak was in 1975. Eversince the usage of oil has always been decreasing, and from 1990s on it experienced a continous consume increase. This contradiction between the usage and consume has led to a dependence on the fossil fuel contries since years 90s. The difference between the usage and the consume has been increasing as a result of the transport development sector. Until 1989 Albania has been an exporter of oil products. Actually, imported oil and its products contribute approximately of 63% of primar energy sources.

0

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Oil supply (imported and country production)

Self-sufficiency of oil needs (country production)

Figure 19 The production, consume & self sufficiency of oil supply

[Source: NSE, 2003 B. Islami 2006]

The oil refining has been done mainly through four refineries available in Cerrik, Fier, Kucove and Ballsh. After the construction of the refineries in Ballsh, the other three refineries did not function in full capacity. The oil fields result with a high percentage of sulphur (4% - 8%) and high gravity (8 – 35 API). The technologies used in the mentioned refineries are quite old and give serious problems uncontrollable pollution. Therefore new investments are needed for further usage of them. A general technical-economic analysis would assess this kind of investment 1 Figers provided from Albpetron sh.a. and ARMO sh.a energy auditing perform from NEA 2002

41

versus the investment on the renewable energy. Coal is one of the main sources in country and it is concentrated in four main areas (see Annex C). The systems of coal enrichment in Valias, Memaliaj and Maliq are already out of function. The coal has mainly been used as a source for central heating and electrical energy production from TPP (co-generative), that are built near the coal mines. In general, the country coal has resulted to a high percentage of sulphur (around 4%) and a high percentage of ash and wetness. Therefore the coal results to a low calorific value with high emissions of SO2. The mine characteristic is that it is located in high depths (over 200 m) and in strata of relatively small amounts (70 – 100cm). As a result the country coal has a higher cost than the imported coal. This is one of the reasons that the use of the coal had a drastic decrease in the last years. The production and the natural gas consume has started since 1963 and gradually have been discovered other gas fields such as: Divjakë, Frrakull, Ballaj-Kryevidh, Durrës, Povelçë, and Panaja–Delvinë. Around 500 wells have been constructed until the end of 1995; out of which approximately 3.04 billion m3 of natural gas have been taken out. Actually, the gas fields are in their final phase. The numbers of the wells are decreased to 30 and the daily collections can be up to 300-1500 m3N/day. The gas slacks have a decrease since 1995, but the peak was in 1990 as a result of identification lack of new sources and investments in the existing fields. A very important source, which has given a considerable contribution to the energy balance of the country, is biomass and more specifically the woods. The usage of woods has also been decreased in the last years. During 1990 the fire woods contributed with 727.7 ktoe (or 24.6% of the total) falling until 271.4 ktoe in 2004 (12.5% of the total). This decrease has influenced positively in the minimization of the wood cuts, and simultaneously has had a negative impact since more electrical energy has been used, especially in the residential sector. According to the data from the General Directorate of Forests, the total slack of the fire wood goes up to 14,3 Mtoe. The usage of fire wood, coal and natural gas in years and the percentages compared to the total of energy sources is given below.

42

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Figure 20 The production and self sufficiency of primary energy sources for the period 1990 - 2004 [Source: UNDP 2005, AKE 2004]

3.2 The energy provided by the HPP and TPP

Albania has a high potential of hydro-energy, 35% out of which is used so far. The installed capacity up to now is 1464,5 MW. The average production of HPP in Albania is about 4362 GWh/year. The total slacks of hydro-energy are up to 3000 MW and the annual potential can be up to 10 TWh (Xhelepi 2006). A great importance is given recently to the use of the rivers in the central and the southern part of Albania, in order to have a geographical hydro-energy balance.

Figure 21 The production of electricity from TPP and HPP for the period 1985 – 2004 [Source: IHW, 2004]

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Household Service Industry Transport Agriculture

8 TPP have been installed in different time periods and capacities. The main common quality is the co-generation. Actually, all the TPP are out of function, except from Fier one, which works on a super minimal capacity. More details and technical characteristics of existing HPP and TPP and those that are planned to be constructed are given on Annex B.

3.3 The provision of the energy demand divided by sectors

The generating capacity is insufficient to face the today demand of 6.60 TWh/year (year 2006). The technical production has an average of 10-12 million kWh/day and the import can go to 8-10 million kWh/day. Therefore a total maximal supply of 18-22 million kWh/day can be provided. The required consume in a normal winter day is 25-27 million kWh. As a result, the electroenergy system is sufficient for 70-80% of the total energy demand during the winter peak, leading to power cuts. According to the NSE, this situation has a resulted to a trade defficit of 25.6 Milion USD in 1990. In 2004 imports go up to 310 million USD/year. To have a clear view, the trade deficit of 2004 is around 1272 Milion USD/year. 25% of this deficit consists of energitic comodities (sub-products of oil and electric energy). The following forecast of the energy demand for the period 2005-2025 is based on the NSE. The energy demand forecast for each sector of economy has been done according to the same scenarios and trends of NSE.

Figure 22 The provision of energy demands divided by sectors

[Source: SKE 2004, B. Islami, 2004]

44

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1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Energy produce in country Energy coverage from import

Albania dependence on energy imports is already 55% and is expected to increase over the coming years up to 70% by 2025 in case of no intervention (see figure 16). The following figure presents the coverage of the foreseen energy demand from the country energy sources and import for the coming 20 years.

Figure 23 The supply of primary energy sources made-in country and imported

[Source: SKE 2004, B. Islami, 2006] Much attention will increase therefore the focus on security of supply. In this framework, one of the main challenges in the Albanian energy sector is the diversification of the energy sources and the self-sufficiency of energy demand with the country sources, reducing the import dependence. Renewable energies as indigenous sources of energy will have an important role to play in reducing the level of energy imports with positive implications for balance of trade and security of supply.

45

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Total energy demand

Energy demand for household, service and agriculture sectors

IV. The forecast of the RES percentage in the overall fuel mix

One of the main goals of this study is to assess the energy amount that can be provided by the renewable energy. We stick on this study on the renewable energy technologies that can be applied in the household, service and agricultural sector. Taking into consideration the above goal the amount of energy provided by the renewable energy in the before mention sectors is analysed below. The figure shows the total energy demand foreseen for the household, service and agriculture sectors.

Figure 24 Energy demand for household, service and agricultural sector in the total energy demand foreseen

As it is shown in the figure the total energy demand in the household, service and agriculture sector will cover over 50% of the total energy demand. The analyses will be focused exactly in this energy demand, which can be provided from the renewable energy.

4.1Contribution of each RET on the energy demand projection

The study of E. Hido informs that the solar water heating systems (SWHS) have generated 3.8 ktoe (44,2 GWh) until 2005. Meanwhile, according to the forecast done until 2025, it is supposed that the contribution from the systems will go up to 100 ktoe (1163 GWh). Therefore, in 2025 the generated energy from SWHS will be 26 times more than in 2005 (Hido 2006). The above data on the penetration of SWHS have been based on the penetration stage of the solar energy in the two sectors: household and service. The penetration of the solar energy in the household

46

sector has been calculated in an amount of 16% in the whole country (in 2025). More specifically, the country is divided in three areas according to the heating degree days. Thus, the first area had a penetration of 21%, the second one 15% and the third area of 12%. The penetration of the solar energy in the service sector has been assessed in 15% in the public services and 27 % in the private ones.

According to the study of D. Profka, the photovoltaic centrals that produce electricity from the solar energy PVPP have not penetrated so far, except for a pilot project. Actually, there have been constructed around 5 kW. Meanwhile the forecast until 2025 implies that the PVPP (need of the isolated systems like the costal lighthouses and different the antennas for the mobile phone, radio and televisions) will contribute with a production of 4.3 ktoe (50 GWh). Thus, in 2025 the energy produced from PVPP will be 4.3 times more than in year 2005 (Profka 2006).

As a conclusion, the system that use solar energy can cover 7,8% of the total energy demand of the three sectors together (household, service and agriculture) or 4,12% of the import needs in 2025 in case of applying the mentioned scenario. According to the analyses from S. Xhelepi, it concludes that until 2006 the SHPP have generated 1,7 ktoe around 20 GWh. Meanwhile, the optimistic forecasts imply that these plants will generate around 81,7 ktoe (950 GWh) in 2025, which means that the energy produced will be 48 times more than in 2005. As a conclusion, SHPP can cover up to 6,1 % of the energy demand in the three sectors considered or 3,23% of the import needs in 2025 (Xhelepi 2006).

According to the study of A.Hizmo, the contribution of biomass until 2005 has been 285 ktoe (3314 GWh). This is mainly dedicated to the use of fire woods, the only actual selection being used. Furthermore, he foresees that the plants using this energy will contribute by generating around 400 ktoe (4650 GWh) in year 2025, or 1,6 times more than in year 2005 (Hizmo 2006).

Contribution of biomass is mainly based on more efficient usage of the fire woods. Actually, the average yield of wood heaters is 35-40% and it is foreseen that the heaters of 75-85% yield will penetrate in 2025. The penetration value of the fire woods is calculated based on the annual production of the forests and the sector needs of the household, service, and agriculture demand. This process will have a double profit: it will enable the sustainable usage of the forests and it will considerably decrease the local pollution (SO2, CO). It has been supposed that the penetration of biomass will be increased by using the agriculture biomass (animal breeding, the

47

so-called energy plants) in energy production of green houses and the especially in the energy production (as a secondary product) as a result of the urban waste treatment. The biomass can cover up to 29.8% of the energy demand in the three sectors considered together or 15,82% of the import needs in 2025.

According to the study of P. Mitrushi, it results that the wind energy contribution has not existed until 2005. There have been some attempts to install pilot wind turbines. Nevertheless, the actual contribute of this energy source is zero. It has been foreseen that the penetration of these plants (WPP) will generate energy up to 43 toe (500 GWh) until 2025. P. Mitrushi assumes in his study a concept-idea of the construction of Wind Electro Centrals in the Adriatic Costal area. The project looks more feasible in this area than in other ones because of the great energetic-ecologic-economic impact. As a conclusion we can say that WPP can cover up to 3,2% of the energy needs in the three sectors considered together or 1,7% of the import needs for year 2025 (Mitrushi 2006).

A Frasheri and M. Mico presents in their studies that the contribution of geothermic energy has not existed until 2005. It is expected that this energy source will cover 10 ktoe (116,3 GWh). It is concluded that, the geothermic plants can cover up to 0,7% of the energy demand in the three sectors or 0,4% of the import needs for year 2025 (Frasheri 2006). The energy supply improvement, the reduction of electric and thermo energy import, the promotion of the new technologies as, DH & CHP (District Heating & Combined Heat and Power) in the service and residential sector are the main objectives of B. Islami’s study. A calculation of the thermo energy provided by SCHP has been done by taking into consideration its penetration of 6% in household sector and 10% in the service sector until 2025. According to this study, the energy produced by SCHP will be 144 ktoe (1675 GWh) in 2025. Therefore, the SCHP can cover up to 10,7% of the energy demand of the three sectors or 5,7% of the import needs in 2025 (Islami 2006).

48

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Renewable Energy Energy from import

Figure 25 Energy produced by the penetration of the renewable energy schemes and contribution

on energy demand for household, service and agriculture sectors.

Figure 26 The coverage of the imported energy demand through the renewable energy

49

V. Evaluation of the energy/thermal unit cost for each RET

The main elements of the pre-feasibility analyses of a certain plant are the initial investments, operations and usage costs, fuel costs, produced electric energy, interest norms, the life duration of the plant and some other indicators. LDC (Leveled Discount Cost) calculated with the following formula will be used to realise the cost-benefit analyses enabling the cost calculation as unit of electrical and thermal energy generation is:

∑

∑

=

=

+

+= 30

0

30

0

)1(

)1(

ii

i

i

ii

i

i

rE

rC

LDC [$cent/kWh electrical/thermal]

The following parameters are shown in the formula:

Ci – the sum of the initial investment costs considered according to the actual market, maintenance costs, working power costs, buying/selling of the electrical energy as well as amortisation costs [$cent]. Ei – Electrical/thermal energy produced [kWh] ri - discounting norm is 7%, for the basic case

In order to realise the preliminary analyses of the benefit-cost analyses, basically for each RES three different power rates plants (250 kW, 1000 kW and 3000 kW respectively) have been analysed. They supply thermal/electrical power for the family consumers, hotelier sector for the buildings in service sector as well as agriculture sector. The basic parameters of this analyses are in the following table:

Basic parameters Unit Renewable Energy Schemes Solar Water Heating System (SWHS) Thermal power, kW 422 1689 5068 Thermal power, kWh 1182600 4730400 14191200 Unit investments USD/kW 750 700 650 Photovoltaic Power Plant (PVP) Electric power kW 250 1000 3000 Electric energy kWh 711750 2847000 8541000 Unit investments USD/kW 5000 4000 3500 Small Hydro Power Plant (SHPP)

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Electric power kW 250 1000 3000 Electric energy kWh 1314000 5431200 16819200 Unit investments USD/kW 1250 1150 1000 Biomass Combining Heating Power (BCHP) Electric power kW 250 1000 3000 Thermal power kW 300 1200 3600 Electric energy kWh 1423500 5694000 17082000 Thermal power kWh 1182600 4730400 14191200 Unit investments USD/kW 2000 1700 1500 Wind Power Plant (WPP) Electric power kW 250 1000 3000 Electric energy kWh 766500 3066000 9198000 Investments units USD/kW 1350 1150 1000 Geothermic Power Plant (GPP) Thermal power, kW 250 1000 3000 Thermal power, kWh 1182600 4730400 14191200 Unit investments USD/kW 1500 1400 1300 Small Combining Heating and Power (SCHP) Electric power kW 250 1000 3000 Thermal power kW 300 1200 3600 Electric energy kWh 1423500 5694000 17082000 Thermal power kWh 1182600 4730400 14191200 Unit investments USD/kW 650 600 550 Biomass Efficient heaters Inefficient heaters Thermal power kW 250 250 Thermal power kWh 1182600 1182600 Unit investments USD/kW 17 37 BCHP Plant of the solid waste Electric power kW 3000 Thermal power, kW 3600 Electric energy, kWh 17082000 Thermal power, kWh 14191200 Unit investments USD/kW 3000

Table 7 Preliminary Cost – Benefit analyses for each RET

Based on the above data, the costs per unit for all systems have been calculated, as shown in figure 20.

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6.40 5.93 5.47 5.11 4.16 3.42

9.438.05

7.00 6.49 5.65 5.103.74

1.72

5.70 5.33 4.96

8.586.66 6.13

19.15

35.61

28.49

24.94

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

250 1000 3000 250 1000 3000 250 1000 3000 250 1000 3000 250 250 422 1689 5068 250 1000 3000 3000 250 1000 3000

SCHP SHP P WP P BCHP Eff-H

Ineff-H

SWHS GP P Was te P VP P

[cent/kWh]

Figure 27 Unit cost for each technology and each capacity [cent/kWh]

[Source: B. Islami 2006]

The figure analyses shows that the long term marginal cost of electrical/thermal energy is in high values for two technologies: photovoltaic and urban waste plants. The second group of the low cost plants consists of: wind and geothermic energy source. The third group is compounded by the classical plants with comparable costs such as: SHPP (which have a lower cost), the co-generated plants that realise the production of electrical energy, the efficient heater plants working with biomass (fire wood) and solar panel plants that realise the production of the thermal energy.

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VI. The reduction of the GHG emission based on the utilisation of RES

The climate change represents a global problem. Actually, all the countries contribute in different scales to the green house gas (GHG) emitting and climate changes. As such, the climate changes influence in the temperatures increase, less raining and a higher sea level. Less raining leads to an increase of dryness, to less energy produced from hydro power plants and as a result it impacts in the economic development of each country. These phases highly harm the efforts for poverty reduction and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals.

6.1 Fossil fuel impact to human health and environment

The usage of fossil fuels as: petroleum, oil, natural gas has an enormous influence in the human health and the natural equilibrium. With regard to the human health, the fossil fuel high consumption leads to cancer or other chronic breath diseases, while its impact in environment is mainly related to the global warming and the degradation of earth, water sources and air pollution. The organic stuff burning for the production of the electric energy is the main source of the carbon dioxide emitting (CO2), which is the major contributor to the global warming and climate change issue. The scientists foresee that our planet will constantly be warmer if the concentration levels of the carbon dioxide will be increasing. Higher temperatures will influence to the extreme weather changes and in devastated earth. The burn of the fossil fuel for the production of the electrical energy is the main cause of the air pollution. This process generates a lot of polluters as nitrogen oxides NOx, sulphur oxides SOx, hydrocarbons HxCy, dust, smog, and other materials in suspension. These polluters can influence in serious problems to asthma, lung irritation, bronchitis, pneumonia, reduction of breath organ resistance on infections and preliminary death. Nitrogen oxides present themselves in the form of yellow to brown clouds in the horizon of many cities. They can lead to lung irritation, cause bronchitis and pneumonia as well as reduce the resistance toward breath infections. The transport sector is responsible for a considerable amount of emitting of NOx and the TPP are responsible for the major part of NOx emitting. The sulphur oxides are the results of sulphur oxidation in the fuel. The equipment that use the

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coal for the production of the electric energy, produce around two third of the emitting of SOx. These gases are combined with the water steams that are in the form of sulphur and nitric acids, which become part of the rain and snow. Acid rain damages the whole live world in the rivers, lakes, minimizes the agriculture production and damages the buildings. The hydro-carbons are major part of the polluters. They are compounded of hundreds of specific combinations, which contain carbon and hydrogen. The simplest hydrocarbon is methane (CH4), which does not enter easily into reaction with NOx to form smog, but the other part of the hydrocarbons do so. The hydrocarbons are emitted from human sources such as: emitting from vehicles, the steam of gas-oil and the oil refining. It is very important, as well, to have a figure out of how the energy is produced and how it is used. In order to use in the future a kind of energy that does not lead to problems of the global warming, it is needed to see towards the renewable energy sources as: sun, wind, hydro-energy, biomass and geothermic. These sources do not contain and do not emit CO2 or other polluters during their usage. They do not also produce air polluters and they are never finished. Using the fuel from wood or other plants (energy and biomass) which free CO2, they do not contribute in the global warming. During their growing they consume the carbon, creating therefore a closed cycle.

6.2 Emission reduction of RES use

Taking into consideration the above pollutions, an assessment of the emitted quantity that would be eliminated by the penetration of the RET, according to the possible technical potentials to be applied is presented below. It is supposed, in our hypothetical case, that all potential amount of energy production from RES would be produced if fact from a TPP with diesel fossil fuel. Its yield is 0.4. Based on the norms taken out from literature, the following coefficients have been used for calculating the emitted amount of GHG.

CO2

[ton/TJ] CO

[kg/TJ] CH4

[kg/TJ] NOx

[kg/TJ] N2O

[kg/TJ] SO2

[kg/kg] Diesel 72,453 10 2 200 0,6 0,0285

Table 8 The emitting unit coefficients

[Source: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change)]

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The foreseen energy for each RES multiplied to these coefficients, give the emitting that can be avoided using the RES according to the potentials described above. Because the electrical energy is not only supplied from fossil fuel, the emitting part of the TPP energy for the 20 years is considered. This coefficient for the study period is 0,3 which means that the electric energy system in Albania will be supplied 30% from the TPP in the next 20 years. Having the assessment done for the amount of energy that will be provided during the period 2005-2025 from the use of renewable energies, we can calculate the emissions of CO2 equivalent, SOx, NOx, in case this energy would be supplied from TPP burning diesel.

Emitting reduction [ton] Energy produced from: ktoe CO2 equivalent SOx NOx

SHWS and PVP 104,3 238000 2230 655SHPP 81,7 186500 1750 500WPP 43 98000 900 270

BCHP 400 912700 8500 2500GPP 10 22800 215 60

SCHP 144 97000 1050 300Total 783 1555000 14645 4285

Table 9 Emission reduction from the use of RES

Based on the forecast of the renewable energy penetration, it is calculated the quantity of GHG (Green House Gases) that can be avoided as shown in the following graphics.

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

[hundred ton SO2]

SWHS and PVP SHPP WPP

BCHP GPP SCHP

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

[thousands ton CO2]

SWHS and PVP SHPP WPP

BCHP GPP SCHP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

[ton NOx]

SWHS and PVP SHPP WPP

BCHP GPP SCHP

Figure 28 GHG emitting avoided from RES usage

6.3 Kyoto Protocol and Clean Development Mechanisms Projects

The Protocol of Kyoto is established in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It includes legal

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obligations for 40 industrialized countries, comprising 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and aims in the reduction of the green house gas of 5 % lower than in 1990, as an average for the first obligation period: 2008-2012. The Protocol of Kyoto includes the cooperation mechanisms compiled to enable the industrialized countries (Parties of Annex I) in order to reduce the achievement costs through the reduction of the emitting of GHG in other countries, where the cost is lower than own countries. These mechanisms ten