renmac rank: 1 apple inc....

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Apple Inc. (AAPL-USA)

RenMac Rank: 1

Price

50-Day

200-Day

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Relative to S&P Composite 1500 / Information Technology - SEC

4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

4.2

RenMac Oscillator: Oversold (-3)/Overbought (+3)

TMT Deep Dive Technology continues its surge as absolute and relative prices reach new highs on a cap, equal weight, and global basis. Tech remains our top ranked sector however, our sector rankings have seen some compression in the past few weeks . The compression in our rankings is also playing out within Tech. As the sector climbs higher internal momentum has begun to diverge as issues above the 65 DMA and 20 day highs have been dropping. Seasonally, Tech tends to underperform in February and March. While we remain bullish on Tech, the combination of diverging momentum, weak seasonality, and an external overbought condition are the recipe for consolidation or a digestion of gains.

2/20/2017

Jeffrey deGraaf, CMT, CFA [email protected] Rob Ginsberg [email protected] Alex Meintel, CMT [email protected]

Patrick Nipper, CMT, CFA [email protected] Michail Adzhiashvili [email protected] Kevin Dempter, CMT [email protected]

[email protected] Important legal disclaimer on last page

We remain bullish on Media as the group makes new highs and is still in a favorable position on our SERM. Laggards within Media are starting to strengthen and breakout such as the Global Media index and the Publishing industry. In the report we highlight our favorite longs within Publishing. Lastly, Telecom has been under some stress with the weakness in the two bellwethers T and VZ as they have been volatile and news-driven. The weakness has created an oversold condition and a surge in 20 day lows which should lead to some near-term relief for the sector.

AAPL is up 12% this month

and is overbought. A good

example of a stock that is

due for some consolidation.

We would use that

consolidation as a buying

opportunity.

mailto:[email protected]







Technology

2 2/19/2017 TMT

TMT

Trend

Strong trends –

absolute and relative

prices are at the

highs, however the

sector is externally

overbought

Trend model is

firmly bullish

3 2/19/2017

TMT

Trend

Strong global trends

Strength across the

cap space as equal

weight index makes

new absolute and

relative highs

4 2/19/2017

TMT

Internals

Minor divergences

internally as the

issues above the 65

DMA and 20 day

new highs are

dropping as the

sector makes new

highs.....momentum is

compressing

5 2/19/2017

TMT

Seasonality

Seasonality suggests

some digestion of

gains as Feb and Mar

historically

underperform.

6 2/19/2017

TMT

Credit

As has been the case

for quite some time,

credit acting very

well. Breaking to

new lows

7 2/19/2017

TMT

Sentiment

ETF inflows are not

yet extreme

8 2/19/2017

TMT

SERM

…while equal weight

remains elevated.

This sets the risk,

but less of a near-

term factor until we

lose trend,

momentum, semis, etc.

Cap weighted SERM

beginning to

normalize…

9 2/19/2017

TMT

Industries

Semi’s starting to

underperform against

the sector as the

rest of Tech starts

to gain ground,

however absolute

trends continue to

make new highs

10 2/19/2017

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Avg. R

an

k

% B

y R

an

k

Info Technology

Ranking Distribution

Bullish Neutral Bearish Avg. Rank

cc

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

S&P Composite 1500 / Semiconds & Semicond Equip - IND

Price 50-Day 200-Day

4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


TMT

Industries

Strength in AAPL

carrying the industry

to new highs

11 2/19/2017

Strong trends

cc

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

S&P Composite 1500 / Electronic Equipment & Instruments - IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

80

85

90

95

100

105


cc

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

S&P Composite 1500 / Computers & Peripherals - IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


TMT

Industries

Absolute trend intact,

but software

continues to act

tired versus the

broader tech sector

12 2/19/2017

Breaking out to new

highs, a nice victory

for the bulls

cc

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

S&P Composite 1500 / Communications Equipment - IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


cc

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

S&P Composite 1500 / Software - IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116


TMT

Industries

Another relative

underperformer with

strong absolute

trends

13 2/19/2017

Great looking

absolute trend,

unfortunately remains

a relative

underperformer

cc

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

S&P Composite 1500 / IT Services -IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110


cc

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

S&P Composite 1500 / Internet Software & Services - IND


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145


TMT

Basing Patterns

14 2/19/2017

TMT

Basing Patterns

15 2/20/2017

TMT

Basing Patterns

16 2/20/2017

TMT

Strategy

Shorting breakdowns

continues to be a

losing strategy

Buying 1’s and

shorting 5’s are both

working, however

there are only a

handful of 5 ranked

stocks w/in Tech

17 2/19/2017

TMT

Strategy

Buying oversold

uptrends remains a

winning strategy

18 2/19/2017

TMT

RenMac Sector Rankings

19 2/19/2017

TMT


20 2/19/2017

TMT


21 2/19/2017

TMT


22 2/19/2017

TMT


23 2/19/2017

Media

24 2/19/2017 TMT

TMT

Trend

Globally, Media is

breaking out but

relative has yet to

confirm

Continues to climb

higher after breaking

out of large basing

pattern

25 2/19/2017

cc

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

S&P Composite 1500 / Media - IG


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Relative to S&P Composite 1500

cc

70

75

80

85

90

95

S&P Developed x United States BMI / Media -IG


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Relative to S&P Developed x United States BMI

TMT

Internals

Internally overbought

26 2/19/2017

TMT

Internals

Long term trends are

strongest since early

2014…really speaks

to the improvement

within Media

Momentum is

impressive as 20 day

highs are keeping

pace

27 2/19/2017

TMT

Conditionals

Media remains

favorably positioned

Relative consolidation

in large and mid caps

after a big run

28 2/19/2017

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

RSquare: 0.01

Correlation: 0.08

(ZS) S&P 500 / Media - IG - Relative Price(ZS) S&P 400 / Media - IG - Relative Price

(ZS) S&P 600 / Media - IG - Relative Price

BULLISH

BEARISH

TMT

Industries

New absolute highs

29 2/19/2017

Advertising continues

to underperform in

Media as the absolute

price consolidates

around the 200 DMA

cc

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

S&P Composite 1500 / Advertising - SUB


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Relative to S&P Composite 1500 / Media - IG

cc

400

450

500

550

600

650

S&P Composite 1500 / Broadcasting & Cable TV - SUB


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


TMT

Industries

Closing in on the

2014 highs, would

like to see relative

improvement

30 2/19/2017

Persistent leadership

cc

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

S&P Composite 1500 / Cable & Satellite -SUB


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130


cc

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

S&P Composite 1500 / Movies & Entertainment - SUB


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104


TMT

Industries

31 2/19/2017

Showing signs of life

as absolute breaks

out above resistance

while the 50 DMA

crosses above the 200

DMA. Would like to

see further relative

improvement.

cc

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

S&P Composite 1500 / Publishing - SUB


4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


TMT

Publishing Longs

32 2/19/2017

TMT

Publishing Longs

33 2/20/2017

Early but bullish

improvement

TMT


34 2/19/2017

Telecom

35 2/19/2017 TMT

TMT

Trend

Relative price is back

at the lows after a

lower absolute high

Neutral trend

36 2/19/2017

TMT

Trend

Equal weight and

global Telecom both

seeing multi-year

relative lows

37 2/19/2017

TMT

Internals

Internal oversold

condition and a surge

in 20 day lows

suggests relief

38 2/19/2017

TMT

Sentiment

Despite the

challenging trends,

outflows far from

extreme

39 2/19/2017

TMT

Top US Cell Providers

40 2/19/2017

TMT


41 2/19/2017

TMT 42 2/19/2017

Renaissance Macro Research, LLC Global Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This document is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the document. Any opinions expressed in this document may change without notice. Any statements contained in this report attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this document constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this document is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2013. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

renmac rank: 1 apple inc....

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