RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT  

  

Online Supplement  

SCENARIO PROFILES REPORT    

Draft January 16, 2013                 

REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century  

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies    

                                         

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DISCLAIMERThescenarioprofilesprovidedinthissupplementaryreportareintendedtoprovidethereaderwithabroadoverviewofanumberofselectedscenariosthatwereusedintheRenewablesGlobalFuturesReport.However,theinformationcontainedinthesescenarioprofilesisnotwarrantedtobeaccuraterelativetotheoriginalsources.Thereaderdesiringtousespecificitemsofdatafromscenariosisadvisedtoconsulttheoriginalsources.OnlyscenariodataemployedinthemaintextoftheFuturesReporthavebeendouble‐checkedforaccuracywiththeoriginalsources.LISTOFSCENARIOSPROFILED(SeeBibliographyforFullReferenceCitations)GLOBAL1. WorldEnergyOutlook2012(InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),2012) ................................................ 42. EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2012,PathwaystoaCleanEnergySystem(InternationalEnergy

Agency(IEA),2012) ................................................................................................................................ 63. Energy[R]evolution:ASustainableWorldEnergyOutlook(Greenpeace,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

(GWEC),andEuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2012)....................................................... 104. TheEnergyReport:100%RenewableEnergyby2050(WorldWideFundforNature(WWF)andEcofys,

2011) .................................................................................................................................................... 125. GlobalEnergyAssessment:TowardaSustainableFuture(GlobalEnergyAssessment(GEA),2012) .. 146. BPEnergyOutlook2030(BP,2012) ..................................................................................................... 187. TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto2040(ExxonMobil,2012) .............................................................. 198. InternationalEnergyOutlook2011(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration

(USDOEEIA),2011) ............................................................................................................................. 209. GlobalWindEnergyOutlook(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),2010) ........................................ 22

AFRICA10. AfricaEnergyOutlook2040(SOFRECO,2011) ..................................................................................... 2311. ProspectsfortheAfricanPowerSector,ScenariosandStrategiesforAfricaProject(International

RenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA),2012)........................................................................................... 26

CHINA,INDIA,ANDASIA12. WindofChange:EastAsia’sSustainableEnergyFuture(WorldBankandAusAid,2010) ................... 2913. EnergyOutlookforAsiaandthePacific(Asia‐PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)andAsian

DevelopmentBank,2009).................................................................................................................... 3014. China’sEnergyandCarbonEmissionsOutlookto2050(LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory,2011)

............................................................................................................................................................. 3215. PotentialSecure,LowCarbonGrowthPathwaysfortheChineseEconomy(ChinaEnergyResearch

Institute,2011)..................................................................................................................................... 3416. ChinaWindPowerOutlook2011(Greenpeace,2011)......................................................................... 3517. “AStudyoftheRolePlayedbyRenewableEnergiesinChina’sSustainableEnergySupply”(Zhang

Xiliang,WangRuoshui,HuoMolin,andEricMartinot,2010).............................................................. 3618. IndianWindEnergyOutlook(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),WorldInstituteofSustainable

Energy(WISE),andIndianWindTurbineManufacturingAssociation(IWTMA),2011) ...................... 3819. Energy[R]evolution:ASustainableIndiaEnergyOutlook(GreenpeaceandEuropeanRenewable

EnergyCouncil(EREC),2008) ............................................................................................................... 3920. “EnergyScenarioandVision2020inIndia”(P.Garg,2012) ................................................................ 4121. “India’sRenewableScenario”(MadhavanNampoothiri,2012) .......................................................... 43

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EUROPE22. PurePower:WindEnergyTargetsfor2020and2030(EuropeanWindEnergyAssociation(EWEA),

2011) .................................................................................................................................................... 4423. Rethinking2050:A100%RenewableEnergyVisionfortheEuropeanUnion(EuropeanRenewable

EnergyCouncil(EREC),2010) ............................................................................................................... 4624. Europe’sShareofClimateChange(StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI)andFriendsoftheEarth,

2009) .................................................................................................................................................... 4825. PowerChoices:PathwaystoCarbon‐NeutralElectricityinEuropeby2050(Associationofthe

ElectricityIndustryinEurope(Eurelectric),2009) ............................................................................... 5026. EnergyRoadmap2050(EuropeanCommission,2011)........................................................................ 5227. PathwaysTowardsa100%RenewableElectricitySystem(GermanAdvisoryCouncilonthe

Environment,2011) ............................................................................................................................. 53

LATINAMERICA28. OutlookforAlternativeRenewableEnergyinBrazil(BrazilianMinistryofMinesandEnergy,2010) . 5529. MeetingtheBalanceofElectricitySupplyandDemandinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(TheWorld

Bank,2011) .......................................................................................................................................... 57

UNITEDSTATES30. RenewableElectricityFuturesStudy,volumes1to4(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),

2012) .................................................................................................................................................... 5931. AnnualEnergyOutlook2012(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration(USDOE

EIA),2012)............................................................................................................................................ 6532. Energy[R]evolution:ASustainable(UnitedStates)EnergyOutlook(GreenpeaceandEuropean

RenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2010) ............................................................................................ 6733. Climate2030:ANationalBlueprintforaCleanEnergyEconomy(UnionofConcernedScientists,2009)

............................................................................................................................................................. 69 

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1.World Energy Outlook 2012(InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),2012)ScenarioDescriptionTheWorldEnergyOutlook(WEO)developsthreemainscenarios;the“CurrentPoliciesScenario,”the“NewPoliciesScenario”(NPS),andthe“450partspermillionofcarbon‐dioxideequivalent(ppmCO2‐eq)Scenario,”andthe“EfficientWorldScenario.”TheNPS,whichisthecentralcase,detailstheimpactofexistingpolicycommitmentsandtheimplementationofthoserecentlyannounced,onthekeyenergydemand,supply,trade,investmentandemissionstrendsintheperiodupto2035.Inthisscenario,fossilfuelsubsidiesareassumedtobephasedoutby2020inallnetenergyimportingcountriesandmoregraduallyinexportingonesthathaveannouncedplanstodoso.Apartfromthisimportantassumption,otherprimaryassumptionsincludepopulationgrowthto8.6billionby2035,andanaveragerateofeconomicgrowthinrealtermsof3.5%peryearthrough2035.By2035,theNPSalsopredictsthatthepriceofcrudeoilimportwillreach$125/barrel(inyear2011dollars),thatthepriceofcoalwillreach$115/tonne,andthatcarbonpriceswillrangefrom$30to$45/tonne.TheWEO2012makesuseoftheWorldEnergyModelthatreplicatesthedynamicsofenergymarketsusinghistoricaldataoneconomicandenergyvariablestogenerateprojections.KeyProjections/ResultsIntheNPS,globalprimaryenergydemandwillincreaseby35%between2010and2035.Approximately90%ofthatincreasewillcomefromnon‐OECDcountriesastheshareofOECDcountriesinworldenergydemandfalltoabout35%in2035(adeclineofroughly10percentagespointscomparedto2010).

FigureA‐1IntheNPS,theshareoffossilfuelswilldecreasefrom81%in2010to75%in2035(FigureA‐1).Oil,coal,andgaswillthusremainthepredominantsourcesofenergy.However,renewableenergysourceswillcontinuetogrow;from13%oftheglobalprimaryenergydemandto18%attheendoftheoutlookperiod.Theshareofnuclearwillremainconstantaround6‐7%.IntheNPS,electricitydemandwillincreasebymorethan70%,withover9,300GWofinstalledcapacityneededby2035.Althoughtheshareoffossilfuelsinelectricitygenerationdecreases;approximatelylessthan10percentagepointscomparedto2010,fossilfuelswillstillprovide57%oftheelectricitysupplyin2035(FigureA‐2).Electricitygeneratedfromrenewableswillalmosttriple,andtheshareofrenewablesintheworldelectricitymixwillincreasefrom20%to31%.Hydroenergyprovidesandwillcontinuetoprovidethelargestshareofrenewables.Thenuclearsharewillremainconstantataround12‐13%.

81  80  79  77  80  75  63 

6  6  6  7  5  7 11 

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 

Current  NPS  450  Current  NPS  450 

2010  2020  2035 

Share of Primary Energy Sources in the World Energy Demand 

Renewables 

Nuclear 

Fossil fuels 

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Amongallrenewables,windpowerwillplayagrowingrole;thewindpowershareintheelectricitymixwillincreaseto7.3%in2035,upfrom1.6%in2010.ThecontributionofbiomassandsolarPVtechnologiesinpowergenerationwillalsoincrease,buttoalesserextent.

FigureA‐2IntheNPS,intermsofrenewablesinstalledcapacity,thegrowthofwindpowermeansthatthedominanceofhydropowerwilldecline.Bytheendoftheoutlookperiod,thesetwotechnologiescombinedwillaccountforalmostthree‐quartersofthetotalrenewablesinstalledcapacity.Beyondhydroandwind,solarPVcapacitywillexceedbiomasscapacityby2015,andsolarPVwillgrowbymorethan15‐foldtoreachover600GWby2035.ThegrowthrateofCSPwillbesignificant,butitsdeploymentintermsofcapacitywillbelesssignificantthanforsolarPV.Geothermalandoceanremainrelativelysmall.

FigureA‐3IntheNPS,renewables(essentiallybiofuels)willrepresent6%ofthetransportsectorusesby2035.TheUnitedStatesandBrazilwillremainthelargestproducersofbiofuels.IntheNPS,renewableswillrepresent14%oftheheatdemandbytheendoftheoutlookperiod.Solarandgeothermalheatareexpectedtogrowsignificantly.

67  63  57 

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2010  2020  2035 

Share of Primary Energy Sources in the World Electricity Generation (NPS) 

Renewables 

Nuclear 

Fossil fuels 

1033  1348  1395  1684  1875 135  143 

252 338 

198 

586  655 

1098 

1658 

266  303 

602 

966 

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GW  Global Cumulative Renewable Energy Capacity   

Ocean

Solarthermal

SolarPV

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

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2.Energy Technology Perspectives 2012, Pathways to a Clean Energy System(InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),2012)ScenarioDescriptionTheEnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)reportisaguidefordecisionmakersonenergytrendsandwhatneedstobedonetobuildaclean,secureandcompetitiveenergyfuture.Itdemonstrateshowtechnologiescanmakeadecisivedifferenceinlimitingclimatechangeandenhancingenergysecurity.Forinstance,itnotablyshowshowenergysystemswillbecomemorecomplex,whyflexibleelectricitysystemsareincreasinglyimportant,andhowasystemwithsmartergrids,energystorageandflexiblegenerationcanwork.Intheframeworkofthisanalysisthereportpresentsdetailedscenariosandstrategiesto2050.Itstartsfromthetargetoflimitingaverageglobaltemperatureincreaseto2°C.Thenitdevelopsthreepossibleenergyfutures,theboundariesofwhicharesetbytotalenergy‐relatedCO2emissions:• The6°CScenario(6DS),anextensionofcurrenttrendsthatassumesnonewpolicyactionistakentoaddressclimatechangeandenergysecurityconcernswhatresultsinanaverageglobaltemperatureriseofatleast6°Cinthelongterm(consistentwiththeIEAWorldEnergyOutlookCurrentPolicyScenario);• The4°CScenario(4DS),whichrepresentsaconcertedefforttomoveawayfromcurrenttrendsandtechnologies,withthegoalofreducingbothenergydemandandemissionsvis‐a‐visthe6DS(consistentwiththeIEAWEONewPolicyScenario);• The2°CScenario(2DS),whichdescribesavisionofasustainableenergysystemconsistentwithanemissionstrajectorythatrecentclimatescienceresearchindicateswouldgivean80%chanceoflimitingaverageglobaltemperatureincreaseto2°C(consistentwiththeIEAWEO450Scenario).The2DSscenarioreflectsaconcertedefforttoreduceoverallconsumptionandreplacefossilfuelswithamixofrenewableandnuclearenergysources,anddramaticimprovementsintermsofenergyefficiency.Amongthemainassumptionsincorporated:globalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)increasesby3.3%peryearonaveragethrough2050,globalpopulationisprojectedtoreach9.3billionpeopleby2050,andthepriceofcrudeoilby2050willbe$87/barrelinthe2DSscenarioand$149/barrelinthe6DSscenario.KeyProjections/ResultsTotalprimaryenergysupply(TPES)willgrowinallscenarios.Inthe2DS,TPESincreasesbyapproximately37%from2009to2050.Thisissignificantlylowerthanthe85%riseinthe6DS.IntheOECD,TPESisprojectedtostayalmostconstantinthe2DS,andincreaseonlymoderatelyinthe6DS.Inthenon‐OECDcountries,eveninthe2DSTPESisprojectedtorisebyabout70%in2050comparedto2009.Theshareofrenewablesintheworldenergymixwillbe41%inthe2DS,24%inthe4DSand15%inthe6DSin2050,comparedto13%in2009(FigureB‐1).Inallscenarios,fossilfuelsremainasignificantpartoftheglobalenergysystemfordecades.Eventhoughglobaloilusefalls,itwillremainparticularlysignificantintransportandasafeedstockinindustry.Naturalgaswillremainasignificantfuelinallsectorsthrough2050.

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FigureB‐1Inthe2DS,electricitygeneratedfromrenewableswillincreasebymorethan6‐foldinabsoluteterms.Theshareofrenewablesintheworldelectricitymixwillincreaseto57%by2050(FigureB‐2).Hydrowillrepresent17%ofthetotalelectricitygenerated,wind15%(two‐thirdsonshore,andone‐thirdoffshore),CSP8%,biomass7%,solarPV6%,geothermal2%,andocean1%.Inthe4DSandthe6DS,theshareofrenewablesintheworldelectricitymixby2050isrespectively36%and24%(comparedto19%in2009).Low‐carbonelectricitygenerationisalreadycompetitiveinmanymarketsandwilltakeanincreasingshareofgenerationinthecomingyears,integratingamuchhighershareofvariablegeneration,suchaswindpowerandsolarPV.

FigureB‐2By2050,theshareofelectricityasafractionoftotalfinalconsumptionwillrisefrom17%in2009to26%inthe2DS,and23%inthe4DS.Cumulativeinvestmentsofaround$7.7trillioninpowergenerationarerequiredinthe2DS,inadditiontothe$18trillioninvestmentinthe6DS,between2012and2050.

81  79  75 64 

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2009  2030  2050 

Share of Primary Energy Sources in the TPES 

Renewables 

Nuclear 

Fossil fuels 

67 

41 24 

13 

17 

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2009  2030  2050 

Share of Primary Energy Sources in the World Electricity Generation (2DS)  

Renewables 

Nuclear 

Fossil fuels 

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Theaveragecostofgeneratingelectricitywillriseby40%to50%inallscenariosthrough2050.Inthe2DS,intermsofinstalledcapacity,hydropowerwillremainthemostsignificantrenewableenergysourceuntil2035‐2040.Duringthisperioditwillbeovertakenbywindpower.Bytheendoftheoutlookperiodtherewillbealmost2,350GWofwindpowercapacityintheworld(FigureB‐3),ofwhichabout600GWwillbeoffshore.By2050,withover2,000GWofinstalledcapacitysolarPVwillalsoovertakehydropowertobecomethesecondmostimportantrenewableenergysource.ThegrowthofsolarPVwillmainlyoccurafter2030withalmostatriplingoftheconsideredtechnologycapacitybetween2030and2050.Thegrowthofsolarthermalandoceantechnologieswillbesignificantafter2040withanincreaseofrespectively475GWand155GWinstalledcapacityduringthelastdecadeoftheoutlookperiod.Biomassandgeothermalcapacitieswillrespectivelyincreaseby11–foldand12–foldbetween2009and2050.By2050,withapproximately8,150GWofinstalledcapacityrenewableenergysourceswillaccountforovertwo‐thirdsofglobalpowercapacity,comparedto25%in2009.

FigureB‐3Forthetransportationsector:• Inthe6DSscenario,transportremainsbasedalmostexclusivelyonfossilfuels.Thereislittlepenetrationofplug‐inelectricvehiclesandotheralternativetechnologiesandfuels.• Inthe4DSscenario,penetrationofalternative‐fuelvehicletechnologies(plug‐inhybridelectric,andbatteryelectricvehicles)isslow.Theonlynewalternativetechnologythatgainssignificantmarketshareisgasolinehybridvehicles,reachingsome25%ofsalesin2050.• Inthe2DSscenario,oilispartiallyreplacedbyaportfolioofthreealternativefuels:electricity,hydrogenandbiofuels.After2030,theincreasedshareofelectricandplug‐inhybridelectricvehiclesbecomesincreasinglyimportantforcarsandlight‐dutytrucks,reaching50%ofvehiclesalesin2050.Theuseofbiofuelswillincreasetoapproximately240billionliters(gasolineequivalent)by2020.Achievingthisfigurelargelydependsonthedevelopmentofadvancedbiofuels.

1007  1501  1644  1728  1981 217 336 458

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Concerningthebuildingsenergyconsumptionandtheindustrialone;the2DSprojectsanincreasinguseofbiomassandwaste,andofelectricity.Concerningthedistrictheatingandcooling;biomassandamixofotherrenewableenergysourceswillrepresentalmostthree‐quartersofprimaryenergyconsumptioninthe2DSin2050.Thecostofcreatinglow‐carbonenergysystemsintheshortertermwillbeoutweighedbythepotentialfuelsavingsenjoyedbyfuturegenerations;asustainableenergysystemwillrequire$140trillionininvestmentsto2050,butwillgenerateundiscountednetsavingsofmorethan$60trillion.

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3.Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook(Greenpeace,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),andEuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2012)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyusesabottom‐up,technology‐drivenapproachtoillustratethepossibilityof100%renewablepowerby2050.Twoscenariosareproduced:aReferenceoneandanEnergyAdvanced[R]evolutionone.TheEnergyAdvanced[R]evolutionscenario(“E[R]evolution”)looksatthepotentialofreducingenergydemandthroughenergyefficiencyandprovidingelectricitythroughdecentralizedrenewableenergysources.Itexplorestheuseofsmartgridstoconnectthesedecentralizedsystemsandassumesthathybrid/electriccarswillbepredominantin2050andthatnuclearenergywillbephasedoutby2050.Othermainassumptionsfor2050includeapopulationofnearly9.3billion,averageeconomicgrowthof3.1%,adeclineinenergyintensity(finalenergydemandperunitofGDP)ofalmost70%,anaveragecrudeoilcostofUS$152abarrel,acoalpriceofUS$206pertonne,andacarbonpriceofUS$75pertonne.KeyProjections/ResultsUndertheE[R]evolutionscenario,worldprimaryenergydemandwilldecreaseto481,050petajoules(PJ)in2050asaresultofenergyefficiencymeasures,thephaseoutofnuclear,andreduceddependenceonfossilfuels.Meanwhile,theshareofrenewableenergywillincreaseconsiderably,accountingfor82%ofworldprimaryenergydemandin2050.(SeeFigureB‐1.)

Nearly95%oftheworld’selectricitywillcomefromrenewableenergysourcesin2050,reflectingthefactthatarenewables‐basedfutureispossible.(SeeFigureB‐2.)Wind,solarPV,andgeothermalwillrepresentsome60%ofelectricitygeneration,andapproximately91%ofheatenergywillcomefromrenewables.

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FigureB‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldEnergyDemand

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

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Dueinlargeparttothegrowthofoffshorewind(to892GWin2050),windwillbecometheleadingrenewableenergysource,followedbysolarPVandsolarthermal.(SeeFigureB‐3.)Oceanenergywillalsoexpandsignificantly,surpassinggeothermalandbiomassininstalledcapacity.IntheReferencescenario,hydropowerwillremainthemainrenewableenergysource,followedbyonshorewindandsolarPV.Othersourceswillhaveonlymarginalcontributions.

PathwaystoImplementationToachievethegoalof100%renewablepowerby2050,severalpolicymeasuresarecrucial.Theseincludethephaseoutoffossilfuelsubsidiesandthegradualphaseoutofnuclearenergy.Acap‐and‐tradeemissiontradingschemeisequallyimportant,aswellasadequatereformsintheelectricitymarketthatallowforgreaterrenewableenergyuse.

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FigureB‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

995 1425 1347 1695 1484754

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FigureB‐3.CumulaUveRenewableEnergySourcesWorldwide

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Biomass

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GW

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4.The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050(WorldWideFundforNature(WWF)andEcofys,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyinvestigatespossiblepathwaystoachieving100%renewableenergy,shapedbytwofundamentalquestions:whatistheminimumamountofenergyneededtodelivervariousfunctions,andhowcanthisbesuppliedinasustainableway?Thekeypathwaysoutlinedareenergyefficiency,electrification,andbioenergy.Althoughthisenergytransformationrequiresahighinvestmentcost,thelaterstagesofthetransitionwillbringacostadvantage,primarilythroughsavings.Thestrategyforachievingthisvisioninvolvesreducingenergydemand,supplyingenergythroughrenewables,andsatisfyingtheremainingdemandviatraditionalenergysourcesprovidedinacleanway.Themodelassumesthatenergydemandistheproductof(a)thevolumeofactivityrequiringenergy,and(b)energyintensity.Activitydependsoneconomicandpopulationgrowth,whereasintensityisdependentonthefastestrolloutofthemostefficienttechnologies.Estimatesofsupplylookatthesupplypotentialforeachenergycarrier:electricity,fuel,andheat.KeyProjections/ResultsThescenarioprojectsthatby2050,95%ofworldfinalenergyconsumptionwillbemetbyrenewableenergysources,withtherestbeingsuppliedbyfossilfuelsandagradualphaseoutofnuclear.(SeeFigureC‐1.)Finalenergyconsumptionwillpeakin2020andthendecreaseto261.4exajoules(EJ)in2050,downfrom327.7EJin2010.

PThistransitiontorenewableenergyispossiblethroughsignificantchangesintheenergymixinfourdistinctsectors:buildings,industry,electricity,andtransport.Inthebuildingsector,actionsaretakenintheexistingstockandalsowithnewbuildings.Inexistingstock,aretrofittingprogramby2050iskeytoreducingheatingneedsby60%.Heatingandhotwaterneedswillbemetbysolarthermalsystemsandheatpumps,whilecoolingwillbeprovidedbylocalrenewablesolutions.Newbuildingswillbenear‐zero‐energyby2030,withresidualheatdemandmetbypassivesolar,solarthermalinstallations,andheatpumps.Buildingswillalsobeall‐electric.Althoughtherewillbeadecreaseinheatingdemand,ariseinelectricitydemandisinevitable.Thesechangeswillcontributetobuildingsbeingpoweredby100%renewablesin2050,comparedtoa60%dependenceonfossilfuelsin2010.Inindustry,theshareofrenewableswillincreasefrom8%in2010to79%in2050,whiledemandwilldecreaseconsiderablytoits2000level.

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FigureC‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldFinalEnergyConsumpUon

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Electrificationinvarioussectorswillincreasethedemandforpowerto127EJannuallyin2050,doublethe2010figure.Renewableswillaccountforaprojected100%ofelectricityconsumptionin2050,comparedtojustover20%in2010.(SeeFigureC‐2.)Offshorewindenergywillincreaseby30%andonshorewindby20%annuallythrough2050.SolartechnologiesthatwillplayanimportantrolearePV,solarthermal(CSP),CSH(concentratingsolarhigh‐temperatureheat,usedprimarilyinindustry),andsolarthermallow‐temperatureheatforbuildings.PVwillgrowannuallyby25–30%(includingbuilding‐integratedPVandlarge‐areaPVinstallations),andCSPwillgrowby20%.

Inthetransportsector,therewillbeamodalshiftfromfueltoelectricity;electriccarsandelectricrailsystemswillbemoreprominent,withmore‐efficienttechnologies.Thebasicassumptionsforelectrificationoftransportareashifttoplug‐inhybridandelectriccars,energyefficientheavyvehicles,andshippingfuelfromhydrogenproducedfromrenewableenergy.ElectricvehiclebatterieswillbemainlylithiumIon.Electrificationwillenablethetransportsectortobe100%poweredbyrenewables.(SeeFigureC‐3.)

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020406080100

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FigureC‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

95 89 6827

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020406080100

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FigureC‐3.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldTransport

Renewables

Fossilfuels

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5.Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future(GEA,2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexaminesmajorglobalchallengesandtheirlinkagestoenergy;thetechnologiesandresourcesavailableforprovidingadequate,modern,andaffordableformsofenergy;theplausiblestructureoffutureenergysystemsmostsuitedtoaddressingthecentury’schallenges;andthepolicies,measures,institutions,andcapacitiesneededtorealizesustainableenergyfutures.Thereportdevelops60alternativepathwaysthroughwhichenergysystemscouldbetransformedtosimultaneouslyaddresscriticalsocialandenvironmentalgoals:stabilizingglobalclimatechangeto2°Cabovepre‐industriallevels(tobeachievedinthe21stcentury),enhancingenergysecuritythroughdiversificationoftheenergysupply(particularlybyreducingdependenceonimportedoil),eliminatinghouseholdandambientairpollution,andattaininguniversalaccesstomodernenergyservicesby2030.Thepathwaysaregroupedintothreedifferentapproachesforachievingthesegoals:“GEA‐Supply,”“GEA‐Mix,”and“GEA‐Efficiency.”GEA‐Supplydepictsfutureswithradicaldevelopmentssuchashydrogenorcarboncaptureandstorage,GEA‐Mixreliesmoreontoday’sadvancedinfrastructuresuchasbiofuels,andGEA‐Efficiencyreliesmoreontoday’sadvancedoptionssuchasefficiencyandrenewables.Thethreeapproachesweredevelopedusingtwointegratedassessmentmodelingframeworks:MESSAGEandIMAGE.Themainassumptionsinclude:globalpercapitaGDPincreasesby2%ayearonaveragethrough2050;globalpopulationreaches9billionpeopleby2050;andtoday’sadvancedtechnologies,manyofwhicharenotcommerciallyviableundercurrentmarketconditions,willbeimprovedthroughvigorousR&Danddeploymenttoachievecostreductionsandbettertechnicalperformancethrougheconomiesofscaleandthroughlearningbyusingandbydoing.KeyProjections/Results Accordingtothereport,41ofthe60alternativepathwayssatisfyalloftheGEAgoalssimultaneously.Thus,theanalysisdemonstratesthatasustainablefutureispossibleandthattherearemanyenergyportfoliooptionsandmanywaystotransformenergysystems.Thesinglemostimportantareaofactionisefficiencyimprovementinallsectors.Renewableenergyplaysanimportantroleinallofthetransitionpathways.Stronggrowthinrenewablesisnotonlyexpected,butitbeginsimmediately,expandingto165–650EJofprimaryenergyby2050.Theshareofrenewables(biomass,hydro,wind,solar,andgeothermal)inglobalprimaryenergywillincreasefromthecurrent17%tobetween30%and75%(andinsomeregionsmorethan90%)by2050.InGEA‐Efficiency,renewableswillrepresentapproximately75%ofprimaryenergyby2050,whenprimaryenergydemandisexpectedtoreach700EJ(upfrom490EJin2005),and90%bytheendofthecentury.InGEA‐Supply,renewableswillcontributeabouthalfofprimaryenergyby2050,whenprimaryenergydemandisexpectedtoreach1,050EJ.FigureD‐1showsthecompositionofglobalprimaryenergysupplyin2005,2030,and2050acrosspathwaygroupsunderanunrestrictedsupplyportfolioand“ConventionalTransportation”setup.Itrevealsthateveninanotparticularlyambitiousscenario,biomassandwindpowerwillgrowsignificantlyinallpathwaygroupsby2050,andsolarwillnotonlybetheleadingrenewableenergysource,butalsooneofthetwoleadingenergysources(alongwithnaturalgas)bymid‐century.

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FigureD‐1

SeveraloftheGEApathwaysexplorelimitationsofvariousrenewableenergyoptions.Yetevenundertheseconstraints,relativelymaturetechnologiessuchashydropowerandonshorewindpowerexperiencestronggrowthto2030and2050,withlimitedvariationamongpathwaygroups.SolarPVandsolarthermal(CSP)aremorevariableandshowstrongerdeploymentafter2030,althoughby2020theaveragedeploymentshowsamultifoldincreasecomparedwithtoday’slevels.Biomassandgeothermalelectricitygenerationshowmuchlowerdeploymentlevelsonaveragecomparedwiththeseotherrenewabletechnologies.Inthepowersector,theshareofrenewableswillgrowdependingontherequirementsforenergystoragetechnologies,especiallyinthosepathwayswithveryhighdeploymentofintermittentsources(wind,solarPV,andtoalesserextentCSP).Thistrendwillbemorepronouncedinthemediumandlongterms,whenrenewablesbecomeincreasinglydominantsourcesofenergysupply.Storagewillbesupplementedwithdemand‐sidemanagementand/orsmartgrids,althoughtheserequirementswilldependontheavailabilityofnegativecarbonoptions(BioCCSandcarbonsinks).Ifsuchnegativeemissionstechnologiesdonotbecomeavailableonlargescale,morerapidearlyaction,includinglargercontributionsofwindandsolarPV,willbeneeded.Thesamewillbetrueifnuclearpowerisexcluded,withtheslackagaintakenupbyintermittentrenewablesources.ThisshiftwillbetechnicallyfeasiblesincebothwindandsolarPVpowerarealreadycostcompetitiveinsomemarketsandareprojectedtobecomemoresoinmanymarketsinthenext5–10yearswithoutanypublicsubsidy.FigureD‐2illustratestheelectricitysupplyfromdifferentgenerationtechnologiesin2030and2050,undertheGEApathways.Theboxesrepresentinterquartile(25thto75thpercentile)ranges,andthehorizontallineswithinboxesrepresentmediansacrossallfeasibleGEApathwaysfromMESSAGEandIMAGE.Errorbarsindicatethefullrangeacrossallfeasiblepathways.TheFigureindicatesthatsolarPVandwindwillbethetwomainsourcesofrenewablepowerby2050.

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FigureD‐2

Inthetransportsector,thereportexploresthreedifferentpathways,allofwhichassumeaphaseoutofconventionaloilshortlyafter2050.InGEA‐Efficiency,electricityandbiofuelsdominate,whileInGEA‐Mix,naturalgasandfossil/biofuelliquidsarealsoused.InGEA‐Supply,hydrogenplaysalargerole.Theanalysisconcludesthatmanyvariedcombinationsofenergycarrierswouldbeabletofuelthetransportsector.(SeeFigureD‐3.)

FigureD‐3

FigureD‐4showsworldwidesalesoflight‐dutyvehicles(LDVs)byvehicletype,underthethreepathways.TheresultsindicatethatthefutureoffuelcellandelectricLDVsisrelativelypromisinginthelongterm.

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FigureD‐4

TheGEAdistinguishestwosetsofassumptionsaboutthetransitioninthetransportsector,“AdvancedTransportation”and“ConventionalTransportation.”AdvancedTransportationischaracterizedbyatransitiontoelectricityorhydrogen,orboth,asleadingtransportationfuelsinthemediumtolongterm.By2050,thesetwofuelswoulddeliverbetween20%andmorethan60%ofthesector’sfinalenergy(dependingstronglyonoveralltransportationdemand).IntheConventionalTransportationscenario,currentmodesofoperationcontinuetorelylargelyonliquidfuelsand,insomeregions,ongasoline.Intheindustrialsector,theGEA‐Efficiencypathwayillustratesthataswitchto25%renewableenergythroughoutthemanufacturingindustryisachievable.Intheheatingandcoolingsector,theanalysisdemonstratesthataroughly46%reductionofglobalfinalenergyuseforheatingandcoolingispossibleby2050(comparedwith2005),throughfulluseoftoday’sbestpracticesindesign,construction,andbuildingoperationtechnologyandknow‐how.AninvestmentofUS$15trillionisneededtorealizethispathway.Increasedheatdemandcouldbemetinpartbysolar(mainlyforwaterheatingandpassive‐solarbuildingdesigns),geothermal(fromdirectheatingandground‐sourceheatpumps),andmodernbiomass(includingfromcropandforestresidues,landfillgas,biogas,andcombinedheatandpower).TheanalysisindicatesthatinvestmentinglobalenergysystemsneedstoincreasetosomeUS$1.7–2.2trillionannuallyby2050,withaboutUS$300–550billionofthisrequiredfordemand‐sideefficiency,comparedtotoday’sroughlyUS$1trillionannuallyinsupply‐sideinvestmentsand$300billionindemand‐sideinvestmentsinenergycomponents.Theseinvestmentscorrespondtoabout2%ofworldGDPin2005,andwouldbeabout2–3%by2050.Ofsupply‐sideoptions,thelargestincreaseininvestmentneedsisforrenewablepower,rangingfromUS$160billionannuallyinpathwaysthathaverestrictedrenewablespenetrationtoUS$800billionannuallyinpathwayswithoutcarboncaptureandstorageandnuclearpower—upfromUS$160billionin2010.Anotherinvestmentpriorityisbuildingelectricitytransmissionanddistributionsystemswithsufficientoperationandcapacityreservestoincreasereliability,aswellaspowerstoragetoallowtheintegrationofintermittentrenewables.Globalaverageelectricitygridinvestment(includingstorage)by2050isexpectedtoincreasetoUS$310–$500billionannuallyacrosstheGEApathways,upfromUS$260billionin2010.

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6.BP Energy Outlook 2030(BP,2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportisneitheranextrapolationnoranattempttomodelpolicytargets.Itisinsteadareflectionofjudgment,whereassumptionsregardingpolicy,technology,andtheeconomyareshapedbyinternalandexternalconsultations.Theoutlookencompassestwosetsofdata:abasecaseandapolicycasethatassessestheimpactofpossiblepolicychanges.Inthebasecase,populationandincomegrowthareassumedtobethemajordrivingforceofenergydemand,whereasinthepolicycase,somestringentpolicymeasuresareadoptedtocuttheCO2emissionsofdevelopedcountriesandtoreducetheenergyintensityofdevelopingcountries.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtothereport,worldprimaryenergyconsumptionwillgrowbyalmost40%inthenexttwodecades,with96%ofthisgrowthcomingfromnon‐OECDcountries,mainlyChinaandIndia.Fossilfuelswillmeetapproximately80%ofworldprimaryenergyconsumption,whiletheshareofmodernrenewables(includingbiofuels)willbeonlyabout6%in2030.(SeeFigureE‐1.)FigureE‐1.SharesofWorldPrimaryEnergy

Althoughthethreemainfossilfuels(coal,oil,andnaturalgas)appeartorepresentabout27%eachofworldenergyconsumption,thistrendistheresultofdecliningoiluseandrisingnaturalgasuse.Renewableenergywillgrowbyabout8%annuallyduring2010–2030.By2030,renewables(excludinghydro)willsupply11%ofworldelectricity.Oilwillrepresent87%oftheworldtransportfuel,withbiofuelscomprisingonly7%.

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7.The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040(ExxonMobil,2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportoffersExxonMobil’svisionforfutureenergytrends.Itseekstoanswerthefollowingquestions:whattypesofenergywilltheworlduse,andhowmuch?Howwillpatternsofdemandandsourcesofsupplyevolveindifferentcountries?Andhowwillnewtechnologiesaffecttheenergymixandoverallenergyefficiency?Theoutlookassumesthatpopulationandeconomicgrowthwillbethemostimportantdriversofenergydemand.Worldpopulationwillgrowmorethan25%between2010and2040,tonearly9billionpeoplebytheendoftheoutlookperiod,andGDPwillgrowatanaveragerateof2.9%.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtothereport,globalenergydemandwillincreasebyabout30%between2010and2040.Electricitygenerationwillremainthesinglebiggestdriverofdemand,accountingformorethan40percentofglobalenergyconsumptionby2040,followedbyindustryandtransport.Energyintensitywilldecreasebyalmost45%.Theshareoffossilfuelsinworldenergydemandwillremainveryhigh,atnearly78%,andtherenewablessharewillincreaseslowlytonearly15%.(SeeFigureF‐1.)

By2040,35%oftheworld’selectricitywillbegeneratedfromrenewablesandnuclear,whiletherestwillbeprovidedbytraditionalfossilfuelsources,withashiftfromcoaltonaturalgas.(SeeFigureF‐2.)

82 81 78

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2010 2025 2040

FigureF‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldEnergyDemand

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

76 72 65

15 15 19

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2010 2025 2040

FigureF‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

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8.International Energy Outlook 2011(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration(USDOEEIA),2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportistheU.S.EIA’soutlookassessmentofenergymarkets,focusedmainlyonmarketedenergy.ProjectionsaregeneratedfromtheEIA’sWorldEnergyProjectionPlus(WEPS+)model,whichisbasedonassumptionsaboutpopulationgrowth,economicgrowth,energyintensity,andhistoricalenergymarketdata.Itdoesnotreflectthepotentialimpactofproposedlegislation,regulations,ormeasures.ThemainassumptionsarethatworldGDPwillgrow3.4%annuallyonaveragefrom2008to2035;energyintensitywilldeclinebyjustunder40%fromthe2008level,andthatthepriceofoilisUS$125perbarrelin2035.KeyProjections/ResultsUnderthescenario,worldtotalenergyconsumptionwillincreaseby53%from2008to2035,withtheshareofliquidsinenergyconsumptionfallingfromapproximately34%in2008to29%in2035asoilpricesincrease.(SeeFigureG‐1.)Theuseofliquidswillincreaseinthetransportationsector,however,risingbyabout46%during2008–2035;by2035,thesectorwillconsumealmost60%ofliquids.Naturalgasusewillincreasebyalmost53%,mostofitforuseinindustrialprocessesandelectricitygeneration.

Electricitygenerationwillincreasebynearly84%.Generationfromrenewablesourceswillrise3.1%annuallyonaverage,reachingashareofapproximately23%by2035.(SeeFigureG‐2.)

Morethan82%oftheincreaseinelectricitygenerationfromrenewableswillcomefromwindandhydro.(SeeFigureG‐3.)

34 32 29

23 22 23

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5 6 710 13 14

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2008 2020 2035

FigureG‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldTotalEnergyConsumpUon

Other

Nuclear

Coal

Naturalgas

Liquids

67 61 63

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2008 2020 2035

FigureG‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

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Coal‐basedgenerationwillgrowby1.9%annuallyonaveragefrom2008to2035,andcoal’sshareinelectricitygenerationwilldecreaseslightlyfromabout40%to37%.Naturalgasgenerationwillgrowby2.6%,whilenuclearwillgrowby2.4%.Intheelectricitysector,mostrenewablesexcepthydrowillnotbeabletocompetewithfossilfuels,particularlycoalandnaturalgas,dueprimarilytohighconstructioncosts.Theintermittentnatureofwindandsolaralsohinderstheeconomiccompetitivenessoftheseresources,althoughtheuseofenergystoragewillhelpgreatlytocurbthisproblem.

16.3 17.5 16.0

1.14.1

4.21.3

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FigureG‐3.ShareofRenewablesinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

Other

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9.Global Wind Energy Outlook(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),2010)  ScenarioDescriptionThestudyexaminesthefuturepotentialofwindpowerupto2050andisbasedonthreedistinctscenarios:theReferencescenario,theModeratescenario,andtheAdvancedscenario.TheReferencescenarioadoptstheassumptionsoftheIEAWorldEnergyOutlook,withrestrainedprogressinrenewableenergyandwindpower.TheModeratescenarioassumesthatcurrentrenewablesandCO2targetswillbemet,andtheAdvancedscenarioexplorestheimplicationsofachievinganambitiousplantounleashthefullpotentialofthewindindustry.ElectricitydemandisbasedontheIEA’s(WEO2009)projectedincreasefrom15,000terawatt‐hours(TWh)in2005to29,000TWhin2030.KeyProjections/ResultsTheModeratescenarioseesanannualincreaseinglobalwindpowerof63GWperyearby2030,withatotalcapacityof1,800GWby2030.IntheAdvancedscenario,theannualwindmarketwillbe120GWperyearby2020and185GWby2030,withatotalinstalledcapacityof2,300GWby2030.(SeeFigureH‐1.)

Theshareofwindenergyinglobalelectricitygenerationwillalsoincreaseconsiderably,fromonly2.5%in2010tosome25–26%in2050.(SeeFigureH‐2.)

199 202

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FigureH‐2.ShareofWindPowerinWorldElectricityGeneraUon

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10.Africa Energy Outlook 2040(SOFRECO,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportprovidesinformationaboutthecurrentstateofenergyinAfrica,aswellasfuturetrendsinthecontinent’sprimaryenergydemandandelectricitysectordevelopmentby2040.Itexploresthepotentialofrenewableenergy(hydro,geothermal,wind,andsolar),although,exceptforhydropower,itdoesnotprovidefiguresassessingthecontributionofrenewablestoAfrica’sfutureenergymix.Africaiscurrentlyhometoabundant,butunevenlydistributed,resourcesofoil(Libya,Nigeria,Algeria,andAngola),naturalgas(Libya,Nigeria,Algeria,andEgypt),coal(SouthAfrica),andhydro(mainlyEastandCentralAfrica).Theseresourcesareunderexploited,anddemandisunderservedbecauseofAfrica’slowcapacitytomobilizefinancingforinvestment,especiallyfromprivatesources,becauseofthehighpoliticalriskandlowcreditworthinessofcountriesandutilities.Africacurrentlyhasonly125GWofinstalledelectricitycapacity,20%ofwhichishydro.(SeeFigureI‐1.)Powerplantsaregenerallysmall(250MWonaverage,166MWforhydro),reflectingthefragmentednatureofAfricanpowersystemsandthenationalautonomyofpowersystems.Thecontinent’stransmissionsystemcoversonly90,000kilometers,anditlacksunifiedorstandardizedspecifications(atleast15levelsoftransmissionlinevoltagesexist,rangingfrom110kilovoltsto700kV).Pipelinesfornaturalgasandpetroleumproductsarelimitedaswell.Overall,thecontinentlacksinfrastructureandregionalinterconnections.

 Thereport’smainassumptionsinclude:averageGDPgrowthof6.2%peryearforAfrica,differentiatedbycountry;accesstoelectricityofover60%inallcountriesby2030;energyefficiencygainsof20%overthecoming20years;andfuelpricesbasedonafutureoilpriceofUS$820pertonne(US$113perbarrel),in2000prices.Tomeetrisingenergydemand,investmentsofUS$43.6billionannuallywillbeneededintheenergysector,42.3ofthisinthepowersector.KeyProjections/ResultsUnderthisscenario,demandforprimaryenergy(excludingbiomass)inAfricawillincreaseby8.9%annually.Theroleofcoalwilldecreasealongsidethedevelopmentofnaturalgasforpowerandindustryandliquidpetroleumproductsfortransportandpower.Nuclearpowerwillexperiencethemostsignificantgrowthduringtheoutlookperiod,withprojectsinSouthAfricaandlaterinEgypt.(SeeFiguresI‐2andI‐3.)

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FigureI‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinAfrica,InstalledCapacity(plants>50MW)

Other

Hydro

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FigureI‐2.

FigureI‐3.

Electricitydemandwillincreaseby5.7%annuallyonaverageduring2011–2040,rising5.4‐foldto3,188TWhby2040.Generationcapacitydemandwillincreaseby6.2%,a6‐foldincreaseto694GWby2040.Africa’shydropowerresourcesarelargebutwillbeinsufficienttomeetlong‐termdemand,basedoncurrentlyidentifiedhydrosites.After2030,thecontinentwillcontinuetodependonfossilfuels,particularlynaturalgas,andwillrelyincreasinglyonnuclearunlessrenewableenergysourcesbecomemorecompetitivethanatpresent.Theoutlookconsidersrenewablestobecommerciallyunviablewithoutsubstantialsubsidies,andfocusesonlyontheirpotential,withoutconcreteimplementationinthefuture.Itnotes:• Onlyasmallfractionofthecontinent’shydropotentialhasbeendevelopedsofar,withaninstalled

capacityof22GWin2008comparedwithaconservativelyestimatedeconomicpotentialthatismorethanseventimescurrentannualhydrogeneration.Forinstance,theIngasiteontheCongoRiverhasanestimatedpotentialofbetween39GWand44GW,butonly1,774MWareused.

• Africa’sgeothermalenergypotentialisconcentratedmostlyineasternAfrica.TheRiftValleycould

representanuntappedpotentialrangingfrom2.5GWto14GWofelectricpower.Today,lessthan200MWofthispotentialhasbeendevelopedforelectricitygeneration,mainlyinKenya(167MWofinstalledcapacityin2010).

• Africa’swindenergypotentialissubstantialanduniformlydistributed.Bestprospectsforthe

developmentofwindpowerarelocatednearspecialtopographicalfunnelingfeaturesclosetocoastal

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locations,mountainranges,andothernaturalchannelsinthenorthernandsouthernregionsofthecontinent.ThethreemainAfricancountriesthathavedevelopedwindenergyareEgypt,Morocco,andTunisia,whichtogethersupplyaround95%ofthe563MWofinstalledcapacity.Egypthassetatargetforwindtomakeup12%ofitstotalenergyby2020,withwindfarmsadding7.2GWtothegrid.SouthAfricaisplanningtodevelopitswindenergypotentialthroughindependentproducersandtoadd400MWtothegridby2015.

• Thedistributionofsolarresourcesacrossthecontinentisfairlyuniform,withmorethan80%ofAfrica’s

landscapereceivingalmost2,000kilowatt‐hours(kWh)persquaremeterperyear.ThisgivessolarpowerthepotentialtobringenergytomostlocationsinAfricawithouttheneedforexpensivelarge‐scalegridinfrastructure.

• Solarthermal(CSP)generatingpotentialfor17countriesinAfricavariesfromalowof7TWhannuallyin

Eritreatoahighof40,500TWhannuallyinLibya;themainpotentialisinLibya,Egypt,theKalahariDesert,andsomeinAlgeria.

• SolarPVelectricitygenerationpotentialvariesfromalowof33TWhannuallyinGambiatoahighof

8,700TWhannuallyinSudan,withthemainpotentialinAlgeria,Sudan,andtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.

ThemainprojectbeingconsideredfordevelopingthesolarenergypotentialoftheSaharaistheDesertecproject,basedonCSPtechnology.ThesolarpowerwouldbesuppliedtoregionalmarketsinAfricaandexportedtoEurope.TheprojectisonamassivescaleandenvisagesuptoUS$400billionininvestmentovertheperiod2020–2050.

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11.Prospects for the African Power Sector, Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project(InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA),2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportaimstoprovideearlyinsightsforAfrica’spowersector.Itfocusesontheperiodto2030,withanoutlookto2050toexaminelong‐termissuesthathaveanimpactoninvestmentdecisionsinthenearfuture.Thereportdevelopstwoscenarios:aReferenceoneandaRenewableone.TheReferencescenarioisacontinuationofexistingeconomic,demographic,andenergysectortrends,takingintoaccountonlyexistingpolicies.Universalelectricityaccessisnotachieved,andaccesshitsonly43%in2030.TheRenewablescenarioexaminestheimpactofpoliciesinAfricatoactivelypromotethetransitiontoarenewable‐basedelectricitysystemtomeetrisingpowerdemand,boosteconomicdevelopment,andimproveelectricityaccess.Itassumesconcertedgovernmentactionintheareaofefficiencystandardsandprograms,aswellasrenewabledeploymentpoliciesandregulation.Specifically,moreambitiousenergyefficiencypoliciesareimplementedthatimproveenergyefficiencyby20–30%in2050comparedtotheReferencescenario.ThescenarioassumesaCO2priceofUS$25pertonne,andthatuniversalelectricityaccessisachievedby2030.ThemainassumptionsoftheanalysisarethatAfrica’spopulationwillincreasefrom1billioncurrentlyto2–3billionby2050andthat62%ofthecontinent’spopulationwillbeurbanby2050(up23percentagepointsfrom2008).Thishasconsequencesforasuccessfulrenewablepowerstrategy,asovertheperiodto2050theemphasiswillshiftfromoff‐gridsolutionstolarge‐scale,grid‐basedsystemswithsignificantdaytimepeakdemands.TheanalysisassumesthatAfrica’sannualGDPgrowthratewillbe5.8%from2008to2015,5.0%from2015to2030,and4.3%from2030to2050.Fossilfuelpricesin2050willreachUS$140abarrelforoil,US$120atonneforcoal,andbetweenUS$9–$14perGJfornaturalgas.TheanalysisreliesontwonewpowerpoolmodelsthatweredevelopedbytheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)andupdatedbytheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)tohavearefinedrepresentationofrenewables,aswellasathirdmodeldevelopedbyIRENAthatcomplementsthetwoIAEAones.Inthisthirdmodel,theelectricitysupplyfromthetwopowerpoolmodelsisincorporatedintoafive‐regionmodelforAfricatomodelelectricitysupplyanddemandineachregion.Thisintegrated,regionalmodelisthenusedtodevelopelectricityscenariosonacontinentallevel.KeyProjections/ResultsIntheReferencescenario,fossilfuelswillstilldominatetheAfricanelectricitymix,accountingforaround70%ofthecontinent’spowergenerationin2050.(SeeFigureJ‐1.)TherewillbeanotableshiftfromcoaltonaturalgasbecauseelectricitydemandinsouthernAfricagrowsatamuchslowerratethaninotherAfricanregions,andcoal‐basedpowergenerationisconcentratedinSouthAfrica.Therenewablessharewillincreasefrom17%in2009toapproximately30%in2050thankstolargehydrodeploymentandthedevelopmentofwindpower.Nuclearwillplayamarginalrole.

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 IntheRenewablescenario,electricitygenerationwillincreasefrom620TWhin2008to3,146TWhin2050,15%lowerthanintheReferencescenario.RenewableswillgeneratehalfofAfrica’selectricityin2030andalmost75%in2050.TheshareofsolarPVwillgrowfromvirtuallynonein2008to8%in2030and14%in2050.Solarthermal(CSP)willgrowto6%oftotalgenerationin2030and10%in2050;windwillreach14%in2030and17%in2050;andbiomasstechnologieswillreach4%in2030and10%in2050.Hydro’ssharewillberelativelystableat17%in2030and21%in2050.Fossilfuel‐basedgenerationwillfallto50%in2030and23%by2050,andnuclearwillplayaminorfuturerole.IntheReferencescenario,around410GWoftotalinstalledcapacitywillbeinoperationin2030,whileintheRenewablescenariothisfigurewillreach442GW.Thisgapwillwidenastheshareofrenewablesincreases.By2050,around80GWmorecapacitywillbeinstalledintheRenewablesscenariothanintheReferenceone.(SeeFigureJ‐2.)FigureJ‐2.

 

Africahad147GWofpowergenerationcapacityasofJanuary2011;thisincluded27.8GWofrenewableenergycapacity,25.9GWofwhichwashydro.

83 7850

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FigureJ‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinAfricanElecUcityGeneraUon

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By2030,intheRenewablescenario,therewillbeapproximately280GWofrenewablesinstalledcapacityinAfrica,with95GWofthiswind,90–100GWsolar,andtherestprimarilyhydro.Then,between2030and2050,therewillbeadramatictransformationoftheelectricitysector.Allgrowthincapacitywillbebasedonrenewabletechnologies,thankstocostreductionsthatincreasetheircompetitiveness.By2050,onshorewind,solarPV,andCSPwillplayakeyrole. Africawillhaveabout810GWofrenewablesinstalledcapacity,ofwhichapproximately240GWwillbewindand325GWsolar.Therestwillmainlybehydroandbiomass,withgeothermalstillplayingamarginalrole.Investmentsfrom2008to2050willreachUS$7,765billionintheReferencescenarioandUS$6,708billionintheRenewableone.ThereportidentifiesseveralissuesandpolicyareasthatrequireattentioniftheRenewablescenarioistobecomeareality,including:• developingclearandstablepolicyframeworksthatenabletheprivatesectortoinvestwithconfidence;• exploringopportunitiesforlocalmanufacturingasameanstoreducecapitalcosts,createlocal

employmentopportunities,andimprovetradebalances;• includingrenewablesineconomicdevelopmentstrategies,developinglong‐termenergysector

scenariosandstrategies,anddevelopingbusiness/entrepreneurshipmodelsforrenewablesandtheirproductiveuse;

• assessingthespecifictechnologyneedsinAfricaatthenationallevel,anddesigningstrategiesand

roadmapstotailorrenewabletechnologiestolocalconditionsandacceleratetheirdeployment;• enhancingthemappingofrenewableenergypotentials(notablysmallhydro,biomass,andonshore

wind)andmakingtheinformationpubliclyavailable;and• cooperatinginthedevelopmentofacontinentalelectricitygridofsufficientcapacitytoconnectremote

renewableresources,improvingsecurityofsupply,andmanaginghighersharesofvariablerenewablesintheelectricitymix.

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12.Wind of Change: East Asia’s Sustainable Energy Future(WorldBankandAusAid,2010)ScenarioDescriptionThereportlooksattheenergyprospectsofChinaandfivemajorEastAsiancountries:Indonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietnam(the“EAP5”).ItassumesthateconomicgrowthinChinawillbe6.8%by2030,whilethatoftheotherfivecountrieswillbe5%,5%,4.2%,4.4%,and6%,respectively.OilpricesareprojectedatUS$85abarrel,gaspricesat$13.2/mmBTU,andcoalatUS$85pertonnein2030.Thereportdiscussestwoscenarios.TheReferencescenarioassumesthatenergyuseinEastAsiawilldoubleby2030,andreflectsacontinuationofcurrentgovernmentalpolicies,plans,andtargets.TheSustainableEnergyDevelopment(SED)scenarioreflectsenvironmentalfriendlypoliciesandtheuseoflow‐carbontechnologies(excludingcarboncaptureandstorage).KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,by2030,theshareofcoalusewillincreaseby60%inChinabutonly21%intheEAP5.GasandoilwillgrowmorerapidlythancoalinChina,butintheEAP5coalwillshowthefastestgrowth,meaningthatcoalwillremaintheregion’smainenergysourcein2035.Theelectricitysupplywillbemultipliedbythreeby2030,reachingatotalinstalledcapacityof2,300GW.Generationfromrenewablesourceswillincrease50%during2010–2030,duemainlytohydropoweruse.Nuclearpowerwillincreaseby12%,largelybecauseofdemandinChina.IntheSEDscenario,whichconsidersdecreasingthecarbonfootprintofthosecountriesandensuringenergysecurity,renewableenergysourceswillmeetapproximately40%ofthepowerdemandby2030,withtheshareofcoaldecliningfromabout73%to37%.(SeeFigureK‐1.)FigureK‐1.

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13.Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific(Asia‐PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)andAsianDevelopmentBank,2009)ScenarioDescriptionThereportprojectstheenergydemandandsupplyoftheregionalmembersoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)upto2030.Theonlyscenarioconsideredisabusiness‐as‐usualscenario.Assumptionsfor2030are:3.5%averageannualgrowthintheGDPofAsiaandthePacificbetween2005and2030;populationincreaseofapproximately24%,from3.7billiontonearly4.6billion;andenergysectorinvestmentsofaboutUS$7.0–$9.7trillion(inconstant2006prices),60%ofwhicharededicatedtoelectricitygeneration,transmission,anddistribution.ThecrudeoilpriceisfromtheIEA(WEO2008)andisassumedtoreachUS$122perbarrelin2030.Improvementsinenergyefficiencyarealsoconsidered.Thestudyappliesaneconometricapproachtoforecastenergydemand,andusestheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsofJapan(IEEJ)modelinthemajorityofthecountryanalyses.Itestimatesdemandequationseconometricallyusinghistoricaldata,andprojectsfuturevaluesusingexplanatoryvariables.KeyProjections/ResultsInthescenario,primaryenergydemandinAsiaandthePacificisprojectedtoincreasefromjustover4billiontonsofoilequivalent(toe)in2005to7.2billiontoein2030(anincreaseofnearly80%),growingatarateof2.4%annually.FossilfuelswillstilllargelydominatetheAsiaandthePacificenergymix,withanear80%shareoftotalprimaryenergydemand.(SeeFigureL‐1.)

Coalwillmaintainthehighestshareoftotalprimaryenergydemandin2030,at38.3%,followedbyoilat27%(drivenbymotorizationandthedevelopmentofroadtransportinfrastructure).Naturalgaswillgrowthefastestamongfossilfuels,at3.6%peryear,achievingat14.5%shareoftotalprimaryenergydemandin2030.Nuclear’ssharewillbe7.1%,showingthefastestannualgrowthat5.1%annuallyandreflectingtheexpectedexpansionofinstalledcapacityinChina.Renewableenergysources(hydroexcluded),usedmainlyforheatandpower,willrepresent11.2%oftotalprimaryenergydemand,withbiomassstillprovidinganimportantcontribution.Wind,solar,andgeothermalwillincreaseatafasterratethanbiomass,butbecauseoftheirlowcost‐competitivenessandthefactthattheystillarenotconsideredclosetobecomingmaturetechnologies,theirannualgrowthratewillbeonly1.3%.Comparedtootherrenewables,hydrowillincreaseatarelativelyrapidrateof3.0%peryearthrough2030,butitssharewillreachonly2%oftotalprimaryenergydemand.TotalelectricitygenerationinAsiaandthePacificisprojectedtoincreasefrom6,068TWhin2005to14,016TWhin2030—anincreaseofnearly131%—withaverageannualgrowthof3.4%.Almostthree‐quartersofthiswillcomefromChina(45.5%),India(17.2%),andJapan(9.4%).

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FigureL‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinAsia‐PacificEnergyDemand

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Theelectricitygenerationmixstillwillbedominatedlargelybyfossilfuelsin2030,with70%ofelectricitycomingfromcoal,oil,andnaturalgas.However,thissharewilldecreaseby7.1pointscomparedto2005,mainlyinfavorofnuclearandnewrenewables.(SeeFigureL‐2.)

Despitea4.5‐pointdecrease,coal‐firedgenerationwillaccountforthehighestshareoftotalgenerationin2030,at52%.Oil’ssharewilldecreasefrom6.4%in2005to2%in2030,becomingmarginal,andnaturalgasusewillincreasefrom13.8%to16%.Nuclearwillseethegreatestgrowth,from9.3%to14%.Renewableenergywillaccountfor16%ofgenerationin2030(up2.1percentagepoints),withaslightdecreaseofhydrofrom12.8%in2005to11.9%in2030,andathree‐pointincreaseofotherrenewables,whichwillachievea4.1%sharein2030.

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FigureL‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinAsia‐PacificElectricityGeneraUon

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14.China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050(LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexplorespossiblepathwaysforChinesecarbonemissionsto2050,usingacomprehensiverangeofenergyconsumptionprojectionsfordifferenteconomicsectors.Itpresentstwoscenarios:thebaseline“ContinuedImprovementScenario”(CIS)andthealternative“AcceleratedImprovementScenario”(AIS),whichshowsadvancedenergyefficiency.ThescenariosaredesignedtoassesstheimpactofactionsalreadytakenbytheChinesegovernment(plannedorproposed),aswellasactionsthatmaynotyethavebeenconsidered,inordertoevaluateChina’spotentialtocontrolenergydemandgrowthandmitigateCO2emissions.TheCISusesefficiencyimprovementsthatareconsistentwithtrendsin“market‐based”improvement,achievinglevelscommoninindustrializedcountries,whereastheAISassumesamoreaggressivetrajectorytowardcurrentbestpracticeandimplementationofimportantalternativeenergytechnologies.Themainassumptionsare:GDPgrowthratesof7.7%during2010–2020,5.9%during2020–2030,and3.4%during2030–2050,andaChinesepopulationof1.4billionin2050.Theanalysisconsidersimprovementsintheenergyefficiencyofappliances,buildings,heatingandcoolingsystems,lighting,andinternalcombustionengines,aswellasincreasingelectrificationofrailtransportanduseofelectricvehicles.Itassumesadeclineinenergyintensityofbetween76.5%andnearly80%by2050,fromthe2005level.KeyProjections/ResultsUnderthescenario,China’sprimaryenergyconsumptionwillgrowfromthecurrent2,250milliontonsofcoalequivalent(Mtce)toaprojected5,481MtceundertheCISand4,558MtceundertheAISin2050.Fossilfuelswillstilldominatetheenergymix,butunderbothscenariostheshareofcoalwilldeclinesignificantly,fromabout75%in2005to47%(CIS)and30%(AIS)by2050.(SeeFigureM‐1.)

Petroleumusewillgrowbothinabsolutetermsandinitsshareofoverallenergyconsumption,drivenbyChina’sburgeoningtransportsector.Urbanprivatecarownershipisexpectedtoincreasetoover356millionvehiclesby2050,withtheshareofelectricvehiclesbeing30%inCISand70%inAIS.Ingeneral,demandforCO2emission‐freetechnologies,renewableenergy,andnuclearwillgrowsignificantly.Totalelectricitydemandby2050willreach9,100TWhintheCISand7,764TWhintheAIS.Electricitydemandinthecommercialbuildingsectorwillincrease,offsettingthedecreasingdemandinindustry.UndertheCIS,thecommercialsectorwillberesponsiblefornearlyone‐thirdofallelectricitydemand,whereasundertheAIS,thetransportsectoraccountsforagrowingshareofdemandbecauseofmoreaggressiverailandroadelectrification.

97 91 87 83 68

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FigureM‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinChina'sTotalEnergyUse

Nuclearandrenewables

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Theshareofcoal,andfossilfuelsoverall,inpowergenerationwilldecrease,buttheextentofthisreductiondifferssignificantlybetweenthetwoscenarios.(SeeFigureM‐2.)IntheCIS,coaldecreasesbutremainsthemajorenergysourceforelectricitygeneration;intheAIS,coalisreplacedbynuclear,whichbecomesChina’smainenergysource,andbyrenewables,theshareofwhichincreasessignificantly.Interestingly,theshareofrenewablescouldrangebetween27%and34%,whiletheshareofnuclearcouldrangebetween25%and54%,makingnuclearappeartobethemainalternativeincoalsubstitution.

IntheCIS,theinstalledcapacityofwind,solar,andbiomasspowergrowsfrom2.3GWin2005to535GWin2050,andnucleargrowsfrom7GWto300GW.IntheAIS,theinstalledcapacityofwind,solar,andbiomasspowerreaches608GWin2050,andnuclear550GW.Inbothscenarios,growthratesforwindandsolarexceedanannualaverageof14%.(SeeFigureM‐3.)

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15.Potential Secure, Low Carbon Growth Pathways for the Chinese Economy(ChinaEnergyResearchInstitute,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThepurposeofthestudyistoexploreChina’soptionsforlow‐carbonpathwaysinthecontextofaggressive,near‐termemissionsreductionsinothercountries,aswellastoexploresomeofthetechnologicalleapsthatChinacouldtaketoachievelow‐carbondevelopmentandavoidthehigh‐carbonpathwaysofotherindustrializedeconomies.Threescenariosaredeveloped:a“Baseline”scenario,whichreflectsexistingpoliciesandmeasures,includingcurrentChinesegovernmenteffortstoincreaseefficiencyandcontrolemissions;a“LowCarbon”scenario,whichassumesthatChinawillmakeanefforttoachievearelativelylow‐carbonfuturebymakingCO2emissionscontroladomesticenvironmentaltargetandbyimplementingdomesticpoliciessuchaseconomicstructuralreformawayfromenergy‐intensiveindustries;andan“EnhancedLowCarbon”scenario,whichassumesthatbypartakinginglobaleffortstoachieveemissionsreductions,Chinawillundertakegreatereffortsonemissionscontrol.Inthisthirdscenario,zero‐emissionvehicles,low‐emissionbuildings,renewableenergysources,andnuclearpowerwouldreachtheirmaximumpotential.Decentralizedpowerwouldbewidespread,andsomecoal‐firedpowerplantswouldemploycarboncaptureandstorage.Themainassumptionsare:averageGDPgrowthrateof6.4%annuallybetween2005and2050;aChinesepopulationof1.46billionin2050;anurbanizationrateof79%by2050;and40%higherenergyefficiencythanpresent.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,China’sprimaryenergydemandwillincreasefromapproximately2,100Mtcein2005toabout6,500MtceundertheBaselinescenario,5,300MtceundertheLowCarbonscenario,and5,100undertheEnhancedLowCarbonscenario,by2050.Allscenariosassumethewidedeploymentofonshorewindgeneration.TheLowCarbonandEnhancedLowCarbonscenariosassumelarge‐scaleconstructionofoffshorewindgenerationaswell.Thecostofsolarenergyin2050is0.39yuan/kWhIntheBaselinescenario,butmorethan30%lowerinthetwootherscenarios,at0.37yuan/kWh.Toachievelow‐carbondevelopment,by2050Chinawillneedtohave400–500GWofnewcapacityeachforwind,hydro,andnuclear,and300–400GWforsolar.

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16.China Wind Power Outlook 2011(Greenpeace,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyanalysesthedevelopmentofChina’swindpowersectorin2010,thedevelopmentofChina’sPVpowersector,andotherrenewableenergytrendsdiscussedinthegovernment’s12thFive‐YearPlan(2011–2015).KeyProjections/ResultsIn2010,MainlandChinaaddedalmost19GWofnewlyinstalledwindpowercapacity,maintainingitsleadintheglobalgrowthranking.Bytheendof2010,ChinaovertooktheUnitedStatestobecometheworldleaderininstalledwindcapacity,at44.7GW,andthisfigureisexpectedtoreach100–150GWbytheendof2015.Chinawillcontinuetoleadinwindgenerationforthenextfiveyears,thankstoimprovementsintheeconomicsofwindpower,thegradualresolutionofissuesrelatedtoconnectingwindpowertothegrid,andstronggovernmentpolicysupport.China’stotalinstalledcapacityofoffshorewindfarmsgrewabout150MWbytheendof2010.Itisexpectedexpandto5GWby2015andabout30GWby2020,accordingtocurrenttargets.In2010,China’sPVmoduleoutputroseto10GW,accountingfor45%ofworldproductionandmaintainingthecountry’sleadasthetopproducerforfourstraightyears.By2010,China’sinstalledPVcapacityreached0.9GW,rankingitamongthetop10nationsintheworld.Chineseoutputofsilicon‐basedthin‐filmpanelsremainedlow,however,astheindustryisstillnotmature.ProblemsfacingChinesePVinclude:insufficientinvestmentinresearchanddevelopment;blindexpansion;backwardproductioncapacity;redundantproduction;lackofasustainable,cleandevelopmentconcept;lackofsupportfordomesticmarketdevelopment;lackoflong‐termdevelopmentgoals;andahighcostofelectricityproduction.China’s12thFive‐YearPlanofRenewableEnergyDevelopmentadoptsdifferentstrategiesandtasksforeachenergyresource.By2015,forexample,annualwindgenerationwillreach190TWh,andsolarinstalledcapacitywillreach5–10GW.InadiscussionpaperonthePlan,theNationalEnergyAdministrationsuggeststhatby2015,China’ssolarinstalledcapacitywillreach10GW,ofwhich5GWwouldbefromgrid‐connected,mid‐sizedpowerplantsinthedesert,3GWfromgrid‐connectedplantsinurbanandruralareas,and2GWfromoff‐gridanddistributedPV.Bythen,Chinawillbetheworld’sbiggestPVmarket.Byabout2020,windpowerandsolarpowerwillreplacehydropowerasthekeypillarsofChina’srenewableenergysector.

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17.“AStudyoftheRolePlayedbyRenewableEnergiesinChina’sSustainableEnergySupply”(ZhangXiliang,WangRuoshui,HuoMolin,andEricMartinot,2010)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyprovidesanoverviewofrenewableenergydevelopmentinChina(includingrecentrelatedlegislation),detailingthecurrentstatusofrenewablesandtheroletheyplayinthenationalenergysupply.Itthenexaminesthenationalindicativetargetsforrenewablesandpresentsalong‐termscenariooftheroleofrenewableenergyinChina’senergytransitionto2050.Finally,itdiscussesthemainrisksinvolvedinthecountry’srenewablesdevelopmentandproposessomepolicymeasuresforriskmanagement.ThescenarioassumesthatimplementationofChina’sRenewableEnergyLawandoftheMediumandLongTermPlanforRenewableEnergyDevelopmentwillcreateanenablingenvironmentforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergysources.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,China’senergydemandwillreach5.4billiontcein2050,upfrom2.3billiontcein2005,reflectingamorethan130%increaseinthecountry’stotalprimaryenergysupplyinunderhalfacentury.In2050,China’senergymixwillstillbedominatedlargelybyfossilfuels,mainlycoalandoil.(SeeFigureN‐1.)

Renewableenergywillcontributeapproximately21%ofChina’stotalprimaryenergysupplyin2050(up3.2percentagepointsfrom2005).Theshareoftraditionalbiomasswilldeclinefrom10.7%in2005to0%in2050andwillbereplacedcompletelybymodernbiomass.Thecontributionfromnewrenewables(modernbiomass,solar,andwind)willgrowfrom0.9%in2005to14.4%in2050.Theshareofhydrowillincreaseslightlyto6.6%(up0.4points).Mostoftherenewableenergysupplyisintheformofelectricity.Nucleargrowthalsowillbesignificant.China’sinstalledpowergenerationcapacitywillgrowfrom511GWin2005to2,620GWin2050.Renewableswillaccountfornearly48%ofthisgrowth.In2005,thetotalinstalledrenewablepowercapacitywasalmost120GW,accountingfor23.4%ofthecountry’stotal.In2050,thesefigureswillreach1,130GWand43.1%,respectively.(SeeFigureN‐2.)Windpowerwillleadthisgrowth,expandingfrom1.27GWofinstalledcapacityin2005to400GWin2050.BiomassandsolarPVwillalsodevelopsignificantly.

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FigureN‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinChina'sEnergyDemand

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Toincreasethepenetrationofrenewablesinthefuture,thereportrecommendsimprovingimplementationofChina’sfeed‐intariff,expeditingtheformulationoffiscalandtaxationmeasures,andincreasingpublicR&Dandinformationsupport.

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FigureN‐2.CumulaUveRenewableEnergySourcesinChina

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18.Indian Wind Energy Outlook(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),WorldInstituteofSustainableEnergy(WISE),andIndianWindTurbineManufacturingAssociation(IWTMA),2011)ScenarioDescriptionThestudylooksattheprospectsforwindenergyinIndiato2030andelaboratesthreescenarios,a“Reference”onebasedonIEAWEO2009projections(takingintoaccountonlyexistingpoliciesandmeasures),a“Moderate”one(takingintoaccountallpolicyandmeasurestosupportrenewableenergyandprotecttheenvironmentenactedorinplanningstages),andan“Advanced”one(assumingthebestuseofIndia’spotentialwithmoreappropriatepolicies).Itassumes(aspertheIEAWEO2009projections)thatby2030,Indianenergydemandwillbe1,299Mtoeandelectricitydemandwillbe2,700TWh.Indiahas170GWofinstalledpowergenerationcapacity,ofwhich10.9%isrenewableenergy(excludinglargehydro),particularlywind(13GW).Thecountry,withover1billionpeople,consumes645TWhofelectricityannually.India’sNationalActionPlanonClimateChangesetsatargetof15%renewablesinIndia’senergymixby2020.KeyProjections/ResultsIntheReferencescenario,investmentsinwindpowerinIndiawoulddroptoabout$910millionby2030.IntheModeratescenario,thecountrywouldinvestabout$9billioninwindannuallyby2020,representingaquadruplingofthe2009figure.IntheAdvancedscenario,annualinvestmentwouldreach$10.4billionby2020.Dependingontheinvestmentlevel,theprojectedinstalledwindpowercapacitywouldvary.(SeeFigure0‐1.)

10.92624.026

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GW Figure0‐1.CumulaUveWindPowerCapacityinIndia

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19.Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable India Energy Outlook(GreenpeaceandEuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2008)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexaminesthepossibilityofarenewableenergyfutureinIndiagiventhenationalcontextandthecountry’srenewablespotential.Twoscenariosaredeveloped:a“Reference”onethatreflectsthecurrentstateofmatters,andthe“[R]evolution”one,whichexploitsthepotentialofrenewableenergyinIndiawiththephaseoutofnuclearenergyandtheadoptionofenergyefficiencymeasures.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,India’sprimaryenergydemandwillincreasebymorethan230%toreach62,577PJannuallyin2050.Inthe[R]evolutionscenario,theshareofrenewableenergyinfinalenergydemandwillincreasetonearly62%by2050.(SeeFigureP‐1.)About70%ofdemandintheheatandcoolingsectorand29%ofthatinthetransportsectorwillbemetbyrenewables.

By2050,inthe[R]evolutionscenario,approximately69%ofIndia’selectricitygenerationwillcomefromrenewables(thisfigureincludescombinedheatandpowerproduction).(SeeFigureP‐2.)

Inthe[R]evolutionscenario,solarPV,wind,andsolarthermalwillaccountforjustunder55%ofelectricitygenerationin2050.SolarPVwillbecomebyfarthemostprominentrenewableenergysource,representing27%ofelectricitygenerationand66%oftherenewablesinstalledcapacityin2050.(SeeFigureP‐3.)

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FigureP‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinIndia'sFinalEnergyDemand

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FigureP‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinIndia'sElectricityGeneraUon

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FigureP‐3.CumulaUveRenewableEnergySourcesCapacityinIndia

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20.“EnergyScenarioandVision2020inIndia”(P.Garg,2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexaminesthecurrentenergysituationinIndia,thepresentcontributionofallenergysources,thepotentialofrenewables,andtheirtotalshareintheenergymixby2022basedonexistingpolicytargets.ItassumesanaverageGDPgrowthrateof8–9%annuallyovertheoutlookperiodandbeyond.KeyProjections/ResultsAttheassumedGDPgrowthrate,Indiawillrequireatotalprimaryenergysupplyofsome1,192Mtoeby2021–22and2,043Mtoeby2031–32,upfromonly616Mtoeatpresent.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtorisetosome2,280billionkWhby2021–22and4,500billionkWhby2031–32,upfrom645billionkWhatpresent.Meetingtheseneedswillbeagreatchallenge,andshortagesmayoccurbecauseofaninadequatetransmissionanddistributionnetwork.Coalcurrentlysupplies55%ofIndia’senergyneedsandwillremainthemostimportantdomesticenergysourceduetothelowexploitationcostandtothecountry’shugereserves(estimatedat246billiontonnes,ofwhich92billiontonnesareproven).Oil’sfuturesharewilldependonoilpricefluctuationsaswellasthedevelopmentofIndia’stransportsector.NaturalgaspriceswillbekeytoIndia’sfutureuseofgas.Andnuclearwillincreasedramatically,from4.78GWofinstalledcapacityin2010to64GWby2032.Hydropotentialissignificant,butitscontributiontoIndia’senergymixislikelytoremainsmall.Theneedtomitigatetheenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofstorageschemesoftendelayshydrodevelopment,causinghugecostoverruns.Overall,Indiaaimstosupplyaround15.9%ofitstotalenergyneedsfromrenewablesby2022.Windandsolarwillsupplythebulkofthisincrease,accountingformorethan80%ofrenewablesinstalledcapacityby2022.(SeeFigureQ‐1.)

WithregardtothepotentialofnewrenewableenergysourcesinIndia,thereportnotesthat:• Windpoweristhefastestgrowingrenewable,anditsdevelopmentisfinancedalmostentirelybyprivate

sectorinvestments,thankstotheprovisionofaccelerateddepreciationof80%.Indiahasapotentialofaround48.5GW.

• TheJawaharlalNehruNationalSolarMission,launchedin2010,targets20GWofgrid‐connectedsolar

power(basedonsolarthermalsystemsandsolarPVtechnologies)and2GWofoff‐gridcapacity(including20millionsolarlightingsystemsand20millionsquaremetersofsolarthermalcollectorareaby2022).Solartechnologyappearstohavethegreatestpotentialforoff‐gridenergyproduction.

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• Thecurrentpotentialforbiomasspowergenerationfromsurplusagriculturalandagro‐industrial

residuesisestimatedat17GW.Withefficientcogenerationplantsinnewsugarmillsandmodernizationofexistingones,thepotentialofsurpluspowergenerationthroughbagassecogenerationinsugarmillsisestimatedat5GW.

• Theestimatedpotentialforpowergenerationfromsmallhydroplantsisabout15GWfrom5,718

identifiedsites.Sofar,over760smallhydroprojectswith2,803MWofcombinedcapacityhavebeensetuparoundthecountry,and285projectstotalingabout940MWareinvariousstagesofimplementation.Atpresent,acapacityadditionofabout300MWperyearisbeingachieved.

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21.“India’sRenewableScenario”(MadhavanNampoothiri,2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportprovidesinformationonthecurrentstateandpotentialsofrenewableenergyinIndia.Italsodescribesmajorenergypoliciessupportingthedevelopmentofrenewablestechnologies.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,Indiawillneedover300GWofenergyinstallationby2017,upfromsome191GWofpowergenerationcapacitytoday.Almosthalfofthis(48%)iscoalbased,20%ishydro,and10%isotherrenewables.Nuclear’sshareismarginal,at2%.AsofFebruary2011,Indiahad18.45GWofrenewablesinstalledcapacity(excludinghydro),withanestimatedtotalpotential(excludingsolar)ofabout89GW.RegardingthecurrentstatusandpotentialofvariousrenewablesinIndia,thereportnotes:• Windleadstherenewableenergysectorwithacumulativeinstalledcapacityof13,065MW.India’s

potentialforonshorewindpowerisestimatedat48.5–70GW.• SolardevelopmentwillbedrivenmainlybytheJawaharlalNehruNationalSolarMission,whichtargets

aninstalledcapacityof20GWofgrid‐connectedsolarpowerby2022,upfromabout18MWattheendof2010.AsmorecomponentsaremanufacturedinIndia,thepriceofsolarPVmodulesisexpectedtodropsignificantly,enablingmoresolarpowerinstallationsnationwide.

• Theunpredictableavailabilityoffeedstockwillbethekeychallengetobiomasspowerdevelopment,as

manyofthebiomassproducersarebackwardintegratingtoenergycropfarming,especiallyintobamboofarming.

• India’ssmallhydropotentialisestimatedtobe15GW.TwomajorenergypoliciespromotingthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyInIndiaaretheJNNSMandthetradingofRenewableEnergyCertificates(RECs).Underthelattermechanism,distributioncompaniesaremandatedtopurchaseapercentageoftheirpowerfromrenewables.Intheeventthattheycannotfulfilltheirobligation,theycancompensatebypurchasingRECssoldbyrenewableenergyproducers.ThetradingofRECsisexpectedtomakereturnsoninvestmentsinrenewabletechnologiesmoreattractiveandtoeventuallymakethesectormoremarketdrivenandlesspolicydriven.

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22.Pure Power: Wind Energy Targets for 2020 and 2030(EuropeanWindEnergyAssociation(EWEA),2011) ScenarioDescriptionThestudyexaminesthefutureofwindpowerinEuropefrom2010to2050,undertheassumptionthat100%oftheelectricitygeneratedin2050willcomefromrenewables.Thestartingpointofthestudyisthat34%ofelectricityintheEuropeanUnioncomesfromrenewables,reflectingtheEU’sexistingtarget.Thereportfocusesonhowtomakethetransitionfrom34%to100%renewables,andtherolethatwindpowerwillplayinthisshift.Toensurethecontinuedbuoyancyofthewindsectorandthispathtowardgreenelectricity,theEWEAinsiststhatEUrenewableslegislationisneedednowfortheperiodafter2020.TheEWEAprovidestwoscenariosforeachnationalmarketin2020:a“baseline”scenarioanda“high”scenario.ThebaselinescenarioisbasedonEWEA’straditionallyconservativeapproachtosettingtargetsforwindenergy.The“high”scenarioacknowledgesthatwindpower,asthemostaffordableoftherenewableelectricitytechnologiesinmostEUMemberStates,couldmeetahighersharethaneitherthe14%ofelectricitydemandby2020indicatedbytheNationalRenewableEnergyActionPlansorthe14.2%assumedbytheEuropeanCommissioninitsPRIMESmodel.ButthiswouldhappenonlyifEUpolicycertaintybeyond2020isachievedbefore2014,ifadditionalR&Deffortsaremade,andifthenecessaryinfrastructureinvestmentsandpowermarketreformsareundertaken.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,by2020theEUwillinstall230GWofwindcapacity,including40GWofoffshorewind,torepresent22.9%ofEUtotalinstalledelectricitygeneratingcapacity.Thiswillinvolveannualwindcapacityinstallationsof24.8GW,ofwhich17.8GW,or72%,isonshoreand6.9GW,or28%,isoffshore.Thesefacilitieswillproduce581TWhofpower(433TWhonshoreand148TWhoffshore),meetingfrom15.7%to16.5%ofEUelectricityneedsdependingontotaldemand.TheshareofrenewablesinEUelectricityconsumptionwillreach34%by2020.Thiswillrepresentannualinvestmentsof€26.6billion(€16.2billiononshoreand€10.4billionoffshore)andatotalinvestmentfor2011–2020of€192billion.By2030,theEUwillinstall400GWofwindcapacity,including150GWofoffshore,torepresent36%ofEUtotalinstalledelectricitygeneratingcapacity.Thiswillinvolveannualwindcapacityinstallationsof23.7GW,ofwhich10GW,or42%,isonshoreand13.7GW,or58%,isoffshore.Thesefacilitieswillproduce1,153TWhofpower(591TWhonshoreand562TWhoffshore),meetingapproximately28.5%ofEUelectricityneedsdependingontotaldemand.Theshareofrenewablesinelectricityconsumptionwillreach55%by2030.Thiswillrepresentannualinvestmentsof€25.3billion(€8.2billiononshoreand€17.1billionoffshore)andatotalinvestmentfor2021–2030of€257billion.By2050,theEUwillinstall735GWofwindcapacity,including460GWofoffshore.Thesefacilitieswillproduce2,512TWhofpower(699TWhonshoreand1,813TWhoffshore),meetingapproximately50%ofEUelectricityneedsdependingontotaldemand.Theshareofrenewablesinelectricityconsumptionwillbe100%by2050.Forsummariesoftheseprojections,seeFiguresR‐1,R‐2,andR‐3.

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23.Rethinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union(EuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2010) ScenarioDescriptionThestudyaimstoestablishalong‐termvisionfortheenergysystemintheEU,settingapathwaytoward100%renewableenergy.Itoutlinesaroadmapto2030andpresentsavisionfor2050basedonasetofassumptionsfromtheEuropeanCommission’s“NewEnergyPolicy”scenariofora“moderate”and“high”priceenvironment.KeyProjections/ResultsUndertheModeratePriceprojection,EUfinalenergydemandisexpectedtodecreasefrom1,232Mtoein2010to1,050Mtoein2050.Theshareofrenewableenergyinfinalenergyconsumptionwillincreasesignificantlytoalmost96%in2050.(SeeFigureS‐1.)

 Thisconsiderableincreaseofrenewablesinfinalenergyconsumptionisduetothegreeningofthepowersectorbutalsotochangesinthetransportandheatingandcoolingsectors.Inthepowersector,electricitygenerationin2050willcomefrom100%renewables.(SeeFigureS‐2.)

Amongrenewableenergytechnologies,windwillcontinuetoleadby2030,butduring2030–2050solarPVwillbedeployedsignificantlytoproducenearlythesameamountofpoweraswind.(SeeFigureS‐3.)

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FigureS‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinEUElectricityConsumpUon

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By2050,theheatingandcoolingsectorwillbe100%renewablesdriven,upfromonly11%in2007.Ifbiomasscontinuestocontributesignificantlytotheheatingsector,thenthisaswellasmajordevelopmentsinsolarthermalandgeothermalenergywillhelpmakeheat100%renewableby2050.(SeeFigureS‐4.)

By2020,9%oftransportfuelwillbemetbybiofuelsand11%bydieselandgasoline.By2050,transportfuelwillbemetentirelybybiofuelsandrenewableelectricity.PathwaystoImplementationThetransitionto100%renewableenergyby2050requiresseveralpolicymilestones:

• Bindingrenewableenergytargetsby2030;• Fullliberalizationoftheenergymarket;• Phasingoutofallsubsidiesforfossilfuelsandnuclearenergy;and• IntroductionofanEU‐widecarbontaxtoincreasecompetitivenessofrenewablestechnology.

Theimplementationofsuper‐smart‐gridinfrastructureisalsoacrucialaspectconnectingwithinformationandcommunications(ICT)technologiesintheNorthSeaoffshoregrid,theMediterraneanenergygrid,andBalticinterconnection.

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24.Europe’s Share of Climate Change(StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI)andFriendsoftheEarth,2009)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyaimstosetapathwayforreducingEuropeanCO2emissions40%by2020and90%by2050(fromthe1990level).Itpresentstwoscenarios:abaselinescenarioandamitigationscenario.Thebaselinescenario,developedusingtheLEAPmodelingtool,reflectsacontinuationofcurrentEUpolicies,resultinginamodestriseinemissionswitheconomicgrowthbalancedbyimprovementsinenergyefficiency.Themitigationscenariostartswiththegoalofreducingemissions40%by2020andtotheextentpossibleby2050.Itassumesanuclearphaseoutby2050,andthatcarboncaptureandstorageisnon‐commercial.KeyProjections/ResultsInthemitigationscenario,energyefficiencywillhelptoconsiderablydecreasetheEU’sprimaryenergydemandfrom77,000PJin2010to24,000PJin2050.Meanwhile,theshareofrenewableenergyincreasesfrom9%in2010to58%in2050,whiletheshareoffossilfuelsisalmosthalved.(SeeFigureT‐1.)

ThetotalpowercapacityinstalledintheEUwillincreasefrom600GWin2010to1,200GWin2050.By2050,powergenerationfacilitieswilloperateusingonlyrenewablesources,duemainlytothephaseoutofnuclearandfossilfuelplants.(SeeFigureT‐2.)Between2020and2030,windgenerationfacilitieswillbebuiltatarateof25GWperyear,andby2050,40%oftheinstalledcapacitywillbeonshorewind.

By2050100%oftheelectricityinEuropewillbesuppliedbyrenewableenergysources.(SeeFigureT‐3.)

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FigureT‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinEUElectricityCapacity

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49

OverallelectricitydemandintheEUwillincrease6%by2020and24%by2050.Householdelectricitydemandwillincrease8%by2020and14%by2050,duetorisingincomelevelsandtoincreasedapplianceownership,whichwilloutweighenergyefficiencygains.Intheindustrysector,electricityconsumptionwilldecrease12%by2020and49%by2050asaresultofefficiencygains.Thetransportsector,meanwhile,willseea219%riseinelectricitydemandby2020anda606%increaseby2050duetotheuptakeofelectricvehicles.Electrificationoftherailsystemwilloccurby2030,andthebuild‐outofelectricinfrastructure,suchasvehiclechargingstations,willbereinforcedthrough2050.

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25.Power Choices: Pathways to Carbon‐Neutral Electricity in Europe by 2050(AssociationoftheElectricityIndustryinEurope(Eurelectric),2009)ScenarioDescriptionThestudysetsouttoanalyzethetechnologiesandenergypoliciesneededtoattainthefollowinggoal:“Achievecarbon‐neutralityinacostefficientwaythroughanintegratedEuropeanmarket[whilemaintaininga]reliableenergysupply….”Itpresentstwomainscenarios,onereflectingthecontinuationofcurrentpolicies(asof2008/2009),andtheseconda“PowerChoice”scenariothatusesthePRIMESmodelandisbasedonthegoalofreducingEuropeangreenhousegasemissionsby75%from1990levels.ThePowerChoicescenarioassumesthatelectricityisthemaintransportfuelthrough2050,withthedeploymentofplug‐inandhybridvehiclesandfullelectrificationofrailtransport.Italsoassumesthateffectiveenergyefficiencypoliciesareimplementedtosupportrenewablepowerfacilities.ThepriceofoilreachesUS$100abarrelby2030,andnaturalgas(indexedonoil)reachesUS$15permillionBTUby2050.KeyProjections/ResultsUnderthePowerChoicescenario,EUprimaryenergydemandwilldecreasefrom1,758Mtoein2005to1,408Mtoeby2050,duetolowerdemandinthetransportsectoranddecreasesintheenergyintensityofvariousactivities.Electricityconsumptionbysectorwillshiftsignificantlyastransportreplacesindustryasthemaindriverofdemand.(SeeFigureU‐1.)Andmore‐efficienttechnologiesandbetterinsulatedstructureswillreducehouseholdelectricityconsumptionforheatingandcooling.

Aselectrificationofthetransportsectoracceleratesthroughtheuseofplug‐inandelectricvehicles,morethan90%ofpassengercarswillbepoweredbyelectricityby2050.(SeeFigureU‐2.)

Powergeneration,boostedmainlybythetransportsector,willrisefrom3,100TWhin2005to4,800TWhin2050,withrenewablesrepresenting40%oftotalgenerationin2050.Ofthis,35%willcomefrom

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51

onshorewind,27%fromoffshorewind,and13%fromsolar.Nuclear’ssharewillnotchangeconsiderably,droppingfrom32%in2005to28%in2050.Despiteacoalrevivalby2025withthecommercializationofaffordableandefficientcarboncaptureandstoragetechnology,theshareofsolidsintheelectricitymixwilldecreasefrom32%in2005to17%in2050.(SeeFigureU‐3.)

ThetotalpowercapacityinstalledinEuropewillreachmorethan1,300GWby2050,withrenewablesrepresentingmorethanhalfofnewlyinstalledcapacity.(SeeFigureU‐4.)Thiswillrequireatotalinvestmentofaround€2trillion(2005euro)fortheperiodupto2050.

PathwaystoImplementationThegoalofdecreasingEUemissions75%by2050willbeachievedthroughtwointerlinkedroutes:decarbonizationofthepowersectorandelectrification(toacertaindegree)offinalenergyusage.Decarbonizationofthepowersectorwillrequireinvestmentsinrenewablesandtheirlarge‐scaleuptakeintheelectricitysystem.Investmentsinsmartgridsarealsoneeded,withaparticularfocusontransmissionanddistributionlines.Reformofexistingcarbonandelectricitymarketswillbecrucialtoachievingtheemissionsreductiongoal,andthecostinternalizationofgreenhousegasesinallsectorsshouldbeexploredwithwell‐functioningmarkets.Governmentswillneedtoshifttheirnationalbudgetprioritiesandacknowledgetheimportanceofinvestinginanintelligentenergyeconomy.

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26.Energy Roadmap 2050(EuropeanCommission,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexploresthechallengesposedinachievingtheEuropeanUnion’sobjectiveofreducingregionalgreenhousegasemissions80–95%below1990levelsby2050.Itexploresdifferentroutestodecarbonizationoftheenergysystemandpresentssevenscenarios,includingaReferenceoneandaHighRenewableEnergySources(RES)one.TheReferencescenarioassumesthatregionalGDPwillgrow1.7%annuallythrough2050,anditincludespoliciesadoptedasofMarch2010,includingtheEU’s2020targetsforemissionsreductionsandrenewablesshareandaswellastheemissionstradingscheme(ETS)directive.TheHighRESscenarioassumesthattheEUtakesstrongsupportmeasuresforwidespreaddevelopmentofgreentechnologies.Theanalysisalsoassumesthatdecarbonizationoftheenergysystemwillentailmajorchangesinenergyefficiency(ofbuildings,products,appliances,vehicles,etc),carbonprices,technologies,andenergynetworks(whichareagingandneedbillionsofeurosofinvestment).KeyProjections/ResultsInallscenarios,theshareofrenewableenergyisexpectedtorisesubstantially,accountingforatleast55%ofgrossfinalenergyconsumptionin2050,upfromonly10%today.Thisfigureisreachedduetothedecreasingcostsofrenewablesandtotheeconomiesofscaleresultingfromimprovedresearch,industrializationofthesupplychain,andmore‐efficientpoliciesandsupportschemes.Thistransitionwillrequirethedevelopmentofnewrenewabletechnologies,suchasoceanenergy,solarthermal(CSP),andsecond‐andthird‐generationbiofuels,aswellastheimprovementofexistingones(e.g.,increasingthesizeofoffshorewindturbinesandbladestocapturemorewind).Inallscenarios,electricitywillplayamuchgreaterrolethantoday,anditsshareinEUfinalenergydemandwillnearlydoubleto36–39%in2050.Electricitycouldprovideanestimated65%oftheenergydemandofpassengercarsandlightdutyvehicles.IntheHighRESscenario,theshareofrenewablesingrossfinalenergyconsumptionwillreach75%in2050,andtheirshareinelectricityconsumptionwillbe97%.Gettingtherewillrequiregreaterinvestmentsinbalancingcapacity,demandresponse,energystorage,andgrids(smartgrids).Cumulativeinvestmentsinthegridalonecouldbebetween€1.5trillionand€2.2trillionduringtheoutlookperiod.Widespreaduseofrenewablesforpowerandheatgenerationwillmakethesesystemsmoredecentralized,andtheywillhavetoincreasinglycomplementcentralized,large‐scalesystemssuchasnuclearandnaturalgaspowerplants.By2050,powergenerationcapacityfromrenewableswillbemorethantwicetoday’stotalpowergenerationcapacityfromallsources.IntheHighRESscenario,windpowerwillprovidemoreelectricitythananyothertechnologyby2050,withwindandsolarpowerfromMediterraneancountriesmakingasubstantialcontribution.Inthemediumterm,oceanenergycanalsosignificantlyboostelectricitysupply.Biofuelswillbecomeamainoptionforaviation,long‐distanceroadtransport,andrail(whereitcannotbeelectrified).Asasourceoflow‐carbonelectricity,nuclearwillplayakeyroleforthenextfewdecades.

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27.Pathways Towards a 100% Renewable Electricity System(GermanAdvisoryCouncilontheEnvironment,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportdiscussestheneedforGermany’selectricitysystemtobecome“sustainableanddecarbonized”(i.e.,renewables‐basedandnon‐nuclear)by2050,inlightofrelevanttechnical,economic,legal,andpoliticalfactors.ItdiscusseswiderEuropeanaspectsinsofarastheyarerelevantforthetransitionoftheGermany’selectricitysupply.Theauthorsalsorecommendcertainlegalandpoliticalmeasurestohelpthecountrytransitiontoawhollyrenewableelectricitysupply.Thereportpresentsareferencescenarioandalsomodelsseveralscenariosaimedatachievingspecifictargets(suchasa100%renewableelectricitysupply),showinghowandunderwhatconditionsthetargetscanbereached.Thetargetscenariosareelaboratedusingtwocalculationmodels:onefromStuttgartUniversity’sDepartmentofEnergyResourceManagementandRationalEnergy,andtheotherfromtheWuppertalInstitute.Theanalysisassumesthatenergyefficiencyiskeytotransitioningtoanaffordable,whollyrenewableelectricitysupply;thatthecostofcurrentlyavailablerenewables(wind,solar,geothermal,andhydro)willdecreaseinthecomingyearsasaresultoftechnologicalimprovements(betterefficiency,lowermaterialsuse)andeconomiesofscaleresultingfromincreasedproduction;andthatenergystorageandtransmissioncapacitieswillbeexpandedinconcertwithrenewableelectricitygenerationcapacities.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtothescenarios,Germany’sannualgrosselectricitydemandwillincreasefrom580TWhin2010to500–700TWhin2050,andthelatterdemandwillbemetwithrenewablesources.Inthe“low”scenario,500TWhresultsfromstringentenergy‐savingandefficiencyoptimizationmeasuresfortraditionalusesofelectricity.The“high”scenario(700TWh)resultswhenthesemeasuresarenotimplementedandelectricityissubstitutedforsomeorallfossilfueluseinsectorssuchastransport,heat,andprocessheat.Excludinghydro,thecostsofallrenewableswilldecrease.(SeeTableV‐1.)By2050,windwillbethelowest‐costrenewable,at€0.04–0.05perkWh(offshorewillbeslightlymorecompetitivethanonshore).SolarPVcostswilldropnearly80%,from€0.44perkWhin2010to€0.09perkWhin2050.TableV‐1.CostofRenewables(€/kWh) 2010 2050SolarPV 0.44 0.09Biomass 0.12 0.10Offshorewind 0.12 0.04Onshorewind 0.09 0.05Hydro 0.04 0.05Geothermal 0.22 0.19InGermany,windpowerbenefitsfromlowcostandgreatelectricitygenerationpotential,at839TWhperyear.Hydroisalsoverycostcompetitive,butitsgenerationpotentialislimitedtoabout28TWhperyear,duetothegeography.SolarPVhasgreaterpotential,about110TWhperyear,butitisprojectedtostillcostalmosttwiceasmuchaswindandhydroin2050.Germany’sgeothermalpowerpotentialishigh,about220TWh,butitisverycostlytodevelop.Biomasspowerisrelativelyinexpensivecomparedtogeothermalbutislimitedtoapproximately71TWhperyear;itmaybefurtherrestrictedbycompetingdemandforbiomassfromthefuelandheatingsectors.However,biomasscouldbeusedoptimallyinpowerplantsthatgeneratebothheatandpower.

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Theelectricitysharegeneratedbyeachenergysourcewilldependondemand.Inalowdemandcase,morethan61%ofelectricitywillbegeneratedbyoffshorewind,about17%byonshorewind,9%bysolarPV,and5%byhydroandbiomass.Inthiscase,renewablescapacitywillreachjustover160GW:75GWforoffshorewind,40GWeachforonshorewindandsolarPV,and4GWeachforhydroandbiomass.Inahighelectricitydemandcase,about45%ofelectricitywillbegeneratedbyoffshorewind,13%byonshorewind,15%bysolarPV,5%eachbyhydroandbiomass,and16%bygeothermal.Inthiscase,renewablescapacitywillreachabout250GW:75GWforoffshorewind,40GWforonshorewind,112GWforsolarPV,4GWeachforhydroandbiomass,and15GWforgeothermal.Aselectricitydemandrises,Germanymustresorttoadditionalenergysources.Becausethemostcompetitiveonesarealreadyfullyexploitedinthelowelectricitydemandcase,thecountrywillhavenochoicebuttorelyonthemostexpensiveones,solarandgeothermal.Electricitytradeviainternationalgridsfavorsthemassiveintegrationofrenewables,asthisdecreasestheneedforback‐upinstalledcapacitiesaswellaslarge‐scaledevelopmentofstoragetechnologies.InthecaseofGermany,DenmarkandNorwaywouldbeidealpartnersfortradingelectricity.However,transmissionlineswouldneedtobeexpandedtofullyexploitthisinter‐regionalnetwork.

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28.Outlook for Alternative Renewable Energy in Brazil(BrazilianMinistryofMinesandEnergy,2010)ScenarioDescriptionThereportexaminesthecurrentstateofrenewablesinBrazilandtheirpotentialcontributiontothecountry’senergymixby2019.Itfocusesmainlyonthefuturedevelopmentofsugarcaneandwindpower.KeyProjections/ResultsRenewablessupplied47%ofBrazil’senergyin2009,upfrom41%in2000.Thisshareisnotexpectedtoincreasethroughatleast2019.(SeeFigureW‐1.)However,themixofrenewableswillchangeslightly.Sugarcanesupplied18%ofthecountry’senergyneedsin2009,andthisshareisexpectedtoreach22%by2019.Theshareofhydrowilldecreasefrommorethan15%in2009tolessthan13%in2019.Brazil’srelianceonoilwilldecreasefromnearly38%in2009to31%In2019,withthereductionoffsetbyuseofnaturalgasandcoal.Nuclearroleisminorandwillremainso.

Brazil’selectricitystructurealreadyrelieslargelyonrenewables,asalmost91%ofthecountry’selectricityis“green.”(SeeFigureW‐2.)Thevastmajorityofthis(85%)comesfromhydroand5%comesfrombiomass,producedmainlyfromcogenerationwithsugarcane.Windcomprisesonly0.24%,andotherrenewablesaremarginal.

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FigureW‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinBrazil'sElectricPowerSupplyStructure

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Projectionsforfutureinstalledcapacityrevealaslightdecreaseinrenewablescapacityinfavoroffossilfuelsandnuclear.(SeeFigureW‐3.)Anestimated21.4%oftotalnewinstalledcapacityinBrazil(63.48GW)by2019willcomefromfossilfuelsandnuclear,at12.18GWand1.41GWrespectively.Anestimated14.66GW(23.1%)ofnewlyinstalledcapacityby2019willberenewables(excludinghydro).Hydrowillcontinuetogrow,representingmorethan55%ofBrazil’snewlyinstalledcapacity.

Totaldemandforsugarcane,usedwidelyforfoodandbiofuel(ethanol),isexpectedtoincreasenearly66%,from685milliontonsin20101,135milliontonsin2019.Thisgrowthisduelargelytorisingethanoldemand,whichisexpectedtoincrease133%,from27.5billionlitersin2009to64billionlitersin2019.Morethan15%ofBrazilianethanolwillbeexportedin2019(upfrom12%in2009);however,nearly82%ofconsumptionwillbefromthedomesticmarket.Theestimatedcogenerationpotentialfromsugarcanein2019is17.4GW,enoughtogenerate89.1TWh,or18%ofBrazil’sactualelectricitysupply(509TWh).Brazilhadonly606MWofinstalledwindpowercapacityin2009,althoughsignificantgrowthisexpectedasthecountryaimstohaveabout6GWofinstalledcapacityby2019.Windwillthenaccountfor36%ofBrazil’snewlyinstalledrenewableenergycapacity(excludinghydro).Theestimatedgenerationpotentialisabout271TWh,or53%ofthecountry’sactualelectricitysupply.GiventhattheshareofwindpowerinBrazil’selectricitygenerationmixwasnearly0%in2009,thecountryhasalongwaytogobeforeitfullyexploitsitswindpotential.Thegreatestpotentialliesalongthenortheastcoasts.

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29.Meeting the Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand in Latin America and the Caribbean(TheWorldBank,2011)ScenarioDescriptionThereportprovidesanassessmentoftheelectricitysectorinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanto2030.Itevaluatescriticalissuessuchastheexpectedriseinelectricitydemand,thesupplyofnewgeneratingcapacitythatisrequired,thetechnologyandfuelmixneededtoprovidethatgeneratingcapacity,andthecarbondioxideemissionsofthepowersector.Thereportalsoexaminestheimportantrolesofhydropowerandnaturalgas,waystoexpandothercleanandlow‐carbonresources,thepotentialandbenefitsofgreaterelectricitytrade,andtheroleofenergyefficiency.Thereportpresentsabaselinescenario,theICEPAC(IllustrativeCountryExpansionPlansAdjustedandConstrained)Scenario,whichisbasedontheOLADE(OrganizaciónLatinoamericanadeEnergía)SUPER(SistemaUnificadodePlanificaciónEléctricaRegional)modelandwhichreflectscurrentcountryexpansionplansintheregion.Thescenariotakesintoaccounttherenewableenergysourceshydro,wind,biomass,andgeothermal.ThemainassumptionsaretheInternationalMonetaryFund’sGDPforecastsforeachcountryto2014,averageGDPgrowthof3%annuallyfor2015–2030,andanoilpriceofUS$100perbarrel.KeyProjections/ResultsBy2030,theregion’sdemandforelectricitywillreachnearly2,500TWh,upfromsome1,150TWhin2008.Thefutureelectricitymixisnotexpectedtochangesignificantlyduringtheoutlookperiod,withhydroremainingthemainenergysource.(SeeFigureX‐1.)However,areductioninhydropowerfrom58.6%in2008to50%in2030,willmeanadeclineintheoverallshareofrenewables,from1.6%to4.1%.Windisestimatedtogrowatthefastestpace,16.2%peryear.

By2030,theshareofnaturalgaswillincreasefrom22%to29.4%,andcoalfrom4.6%to7.9%.Nuclearexpansion(concentratedinArgentina)willbeminimal,from2.8%to4.2%.MeetingrisingelectricitydemandinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanwillrequiresignificantexpansionofpower‐generatingcapacity.Anestimated239GWofnewinstalledcapacitywillbenecessary,including97GWinBrazil,45GWintheSouthernCone,44GWinMexico,30GWintheAndeanZone,15GWinCentralAmerica,and7GWintheCaribbean.Hydropowerandnaturalgaswillprovidethemajorityofadditionalpowercapacity,at36%and35%respectively,duetotheirlowcosts.Otherrenewables,mainlybiomassandwind,willprovide8%ofthenewinstalledcapacitywhatislessthancoal(11%).(SeeFigureX‐2.)

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FigureX‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinElectricityGeneraUoninLaUnAmericaandthe

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Fossilfuels

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InvestmentinnewgenerationcapacityisestimatedtobeaboutUS$430billionbetween2008and2030.Thereportnotesthatthecontributionofnon‐hydrorenewablestotheregion’sfutureelectricitymixisincreasing,buttheirfullpotentialremainsunderexploited.Theregionishometolargerenewableresources,includingwindinArgentina,hydroelectricityandbiomass(suchassugarcanebagasse)inBrazil,geothermalinCentralAmerica,andubiquitoussolarresources.Theserenewablescouldprovidebetween15%and30%ofthetotalelectricitysupplyin2030withdevelopmentofthetechnologies,energyefficiencyimprovements,andincreasingregionalelectricitytradelinkingcountriesandregions,whichwouldallowfortheoptimizationofelectricitysuppliestohelpaddressthevariabilityofnewrenewables.Withregardtorenewableenergypotentialsintheregion,thereportnotes:• Windappearstohavethelargestpotentialofthenewrenewablesoverthecomingtwodecades.

Variationsinwindandhydroelectricoutputarelargelyindependentofoneanother,which,togetherwiththestoragecapabilitiesofhydropowerdams,makethemcomplementary.

• Biomass,particularlyresiduesfromthesugarindustry,currentlyprovidesasignificantamountof

electricityinBrazilandcouldmakeafurthercontributionthereandelsewhereinthefuture.• Geothermalpotentialishighlyuncertainbecauseoflimitedexploratorydrilling.Thegreatestpotential

isconcentratedalongthetectonicallyactivePacificRimfromMexicotoChileandinsomeCaribbeanislands.

• Solarpower,mainlysolarthermal(CSP)power,willrequirebreakthroughstoreducecostsifitisto

contributesignificantlytogrid‐suppliedelectricityinthenext20years.

86

1010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Renewables

FigureX‐2.NewlyAddedCapacityfromRenewablesinLaUnAmericaandthe

Caribbean,2008–30

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

GW

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30.Renewable Electricity Futures Study,volumes1to4(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),2012)ScenarioDescriptionThestudyassessesavarietyofscenariosthataimforspecificlevelsofrenewableelectricitygenerationin2050(from30%to90%),althoughtheprimaryfocusison80%renewablepower,withnearly50%ofthiscomingfromwindandsolarPV.ItidentifiesthecharacteristicsofaU.S.electricitysystemthatwouldbeneededtoaccommodatesuchlevels,anddescribessomeofthechallengesandimplicationsofrealizingsuchafuture.Becausethefocusofthereportisongridintegrationandnotonthepotentialadvancesofspecifictechnologies,thescenariosconsideronlycommerciallyavailabletechnologiesasof2010,includingwind,PV,solarthermal(CSP),hydropower,geothermal,andbiomass.Thestudyomitstechnologiessuchasenhancedgeothermalsystems,oceanenergytechnologies,floatingoffshorewindtechnology,andothersthatarecurrentlyunderdevelopmentorpilottesting.Thereportmodelsandanalyzesmorethantwodozenscenarios,basedonlowandhighdemandbaselines.Thelow‐demandbaselineassumestheadoptionofenergyefficiencymeasuresandimprovementsintechnologycostandperformance.Thehigh‐demandbaselinerepresentsabusiness‐as‐usualcasethatassumesnoradicalchangesinavailabletechnologiesorconsumerbehavior,andnoenactmentofnewregulationsorlaws.Theprimaryfocusison80%shareofelectricityfromrenewablesources,withthefollowingscenariosapplyingthelowelectricitydemandassumptions:• TheNoRETechnologyImprovement(80%RE‐NTI)scenarioassumesthattheperformancesofthe

consideredrenewabletechnologieswillbemaintainedattheir2010level.• TheIncrementalRETechnologyImprovement(80%RE‐ITI)scenarioreflectsonlypartialachievementof

thefuturetechnicaladvancementsthatmaybepossible.• TheEvolutionaryRETechnologyImprovement(80%RE‐ETI)scenarioreflectsamorecomplete

achievementofpossiblefuturetechnicaladvancements.However,furthertechnicaladvancementsbeyondtheRE‐ETIarepossible.

• TheConstrainedTransmissionscenarioevaluateshowlimitstobuildingnewtransmissionmightimpact

thelocationandmixofrenewableresourcesusedtomeetan80%‐by‐2050future.• TheConstrainedFlexibilityscenarioseekstounderstandhowinstitutionalconstraintstoandconcerns

aboutmanagingthevariabilityofwindandsolarresources,inparticular,mightimpacttheresourcemixofachievingan80%‐by‐2050future.

• TheConstrainedResourcesscenarioassumesthatenvironmentalorotherconcernsmayreducethe

developablepotentialformanyoftherenewabletechnologiesinquestion,andevaluateshowsuchconstraintscouldimpacttheresourcemixofrenewableenergysupply.

Thestudy’smainassumptionsareannualaverageGDPgrowthof2.4%andpopulationgrowthof0.9%.Mostofthescenariosalsoassumetheadoptionofenergyefficiency(includingelectricity)measuresintheresidential,commercial,andindustrialsectors,whichresultinflatdemandgrowthoverthe40‐yearstudyperiod.Mostscenariosassumeashiftofsometransportationenergyawayfrompetroleumandtowardelectricityintheformofelectricandplug‐inhybridelectricvehicles.Thestudyalsoassumesimprovementsinelectricsystemoperationstoenhanceflexibilityinbothelectricitygenerationandend‐usedemand,as

60

wellasexpandedtransmissioninfrastructureandaccesstoexistingtransmissioncapacity.Mostscenariosassumeprojectsitingandpermittingregimesthatallowforrenewableelectricitydevelopmentandtransmissionexpansionsubjecttostandardland‐useexclusions.Toaddressthevariabilityanduncertaintyassociatedwithintegratinghigherlevelsofrenewables,thereportnotestheneedtoincreasetheoverallflexibilityofthepowersystemthroughmeasuressuchasenergystorage,demandresponse,andmore‐flexibleconventionalfossilpowerplants.Thestudydoesnottakeintoaccounttherapiddevelopmentofdomesticunconventionalnaturalgasresourcesthathascontributedtohistoricallylownaturalgasprices.Thestudyemploystwomodels;theNRELRegionalEnergyDeploymentSystem(ReEDS),whichexplorestheadequacyofgeographicallydiverseU.S.renewableresourcestomeetelectricitydemandoverfuturedecades,andtheABBmodelGridView,whichexploresthehourlyoperationoftheU.S.gridwithhighlevelsofvariablesolarPVandwindgeneration.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtotheanalysis,U.S.electricitydemandwillincreasefrom3,700TWhin2008to3,920TWhinthelowdemandbaselineand5,100TWhinthehighdemandbaseline,in2050.Themainconclusionisthatrenewablepowerfromtechnologiesthatarecommerciallyavailabletoday,incombinationwithamoreflexibleelectricsystem,ismorethanadequatetosupply80%ofU.S.electricitygenerationin2050whilemeetingelectricitydemandonanhourlybasisineveryregionofthecountry.Agreenelectricitysystemisnotonlypossible,buttheabundanceanddiversityofU.S.renewableresourcescansupportmultiplecombinationsofrenewabletechnologies.(SeeTableY‐1.)Thereisnoinsurmountablelong‐termconstrainttotechnologymanufacturingcapacity,materialssupply,orlaboravailability.TableY‐1.EstimatedInstalledCapacityPotentialofRenewableEnergyintheUnitedStatesRenewableEnergySource PotentialInstalledCapacity(GW)Biomass 100Geothermal 500Hydro 152–228Utility‐scalesolarPV 80,000RooftopsolarPV 37,000Solarthermal(CSP) 700Wind 10,000

However,suchatransitionwouldrequireatransformationoftheelectricitysystemthatinvolveseveryelementofthegrid,fromsystemplanningthroughoperation.Itwouldneedtoensureadequateplanningandoperatingreserves,increasedflexibilityoftheelectricsystem,andexpandedmulti‐statetransmissioninfrastructure,andwouldlikelyrelyonthedevelopmentandadoptionoftechnologyadvances,newoperatingprocedures,evolvedbusinessmodels,andnewmarketrules.Themostimpactfulleverforreducingthecostofthistransitionisimprovementinthecostandperformanceofrenewabletechnologies.FiguresY‐1andY‐2showtheinstalledcapacityandgenerationmixin2050fordifferentlevelsofelectricitygeneratedfromrenewables(thelow‐demandbaselinecase,andundertheRE‐ITItechnologyimprovementscenario,whichisarelativelyconservativescenarioreflectingonlypartialachievementofthefuturetechnicaladvancementsthatmaybepossible).

61

FigureY‐1

FigureY‐2

Windpower,particularlyonshore,hasthegreatestpotential:ofthe1,390GWcapacityrequired,underthe90%renewableenergyRE‐ITIscenario,517GWiswind.Thisscenarioalsoincludes102GWofCSPinstalledcapacityin2050.TableY‐2showsthedeploymentofrenewableinstalledcapacity(inGW)in2050under80%renewableenergyscenarios:TableY‐2

Different80%Scenarios

Low‐Demand High‐Demand

RE‐NTI

RE‐ITI RE‐ETI ConstrainedTransmission

ConstrainedFlexibility

ConstrainedResources

High‐DemandRenewables

DedicatedBiopower

80 82 83 84 81 40 84

Co‐firedBiopower

13 13 11 14 14 11 16

Hydrothermal 25 24 24 24 24 12 24SolarPV 90 168 171 294 149 203 421CSP 1 56 126 33 89 120 79

Rene

wab

leEne

rgy

Sources

Onshore 441 349 330 280 322 395 463

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Biomasspowerissignificantinall80%renewableenergyscenariosmodeled,excludingtheConstrainedResourcesscenario.Biomassdeploymentshowslittlevariationamongtheothersix80%‐renewablesscenarios,duetothelimitedfeedstocksupply.Geothermalissimilarinmanyofthescenariosbecauseofthelimitedresourcesupply.UseofsolarpowerislinkedlargelytofuturereductionsinthecostsofPVandCSP.Additionally,PVusewillincreaseandCSPwilldecreaseiftransmissionexpansionislimitedduetothegreaterlocation‐dependenceofCSPresources.CSPusewillincreaseandPVwilldecreaseifinstitutionalflexibilityislimitedduetothevariabilityanduncertaintyinherentinPVsystemswithoutstorage.Windenergytechnologiesplayasignificantroleinallrenewablefuturesscenarios.Amongthelow‐demand80%‐renewablescenarios,winddeploymentisgreatestwhennocostorperformanceimprovementsareassumed(80%RE‐NTIscenario)foranyrenewabletechnology,duetothefactthatwindisarelativelymaturerenewablestechnology.OffshorewindrealizesthegreatestinstalledcapacityintheConstrainedTransmissionscenario,with185GWdeployedby2050,becauseofthefacilities’proximitytoloadcentersontheEastCoast,whichreducesnewtransmissionrequirements.Thestudymakesnumerousprojectionsabouttheflexibilityofthepowersystem.Concerningstorage,itfocusesonthreedifferenttechnologiesthatcanprovideenergymanagementservicesorstoreanddischargecontinuouslyfor8–15hours:high‐energybatteries,pumped‐storagehydropower(PSH),andcompressedairenergystorage(CAES).Thereportestimatesthetotalamountofstoragedeployed,butnottheshareofeachtechnologytype.Batterydeploymentisexpectedtobelimitedduetothehighcostandassumedminimalcostreduction,aswellastoalackofvaluationofthebenefitstothedistributionsystem.MostofthenewstorageisprojectedtobeCAES,notPSH,withthedevelopablepotentialofnewPSHat35GWandofCAESatmorethan120GW.Theroleofvehicle‐to‐grid(V2G)isnotexplicitlyevaluated.Thereportincludesthevalueofcontrolledcharging,butbecauseofuncertaintyintheultimateacceptanceamongoriginalequipmentmanufacturers,utilities,andconsumers,thepotentiallyverylargeroleofV2GhasnotbeentakenintoaccountNotsurprisingly,thestudynotesthatthemorerenewables,inparticularvariablerenewables,thataredeployed,themorestoragecapacitywillbeneeded.(SeeFigureY‐3.)By2050,storagecapacityisestimatedat28GWintheLow‐DemandBaselinescenario,31GWinthe30%‐renewablesscenario,74GWinthe60%scenario,and142GWinthe90%scenario

OnshoreWind

441 349 330 280 322 395 463

OffshoreWind

115 112 56 185 100 103 141

TOTAL 765 804 801 914 779 884 1,228

63

FigureY‐3.

Intheframeworkofthe80%scenarios,between80and131GWofnewstoragecapacitywillbeinstalledby2050inadditiontothe20GWofexisting(PSH)storagecapacity.(SeeFigureY‐4.)FigureY‐4

TheConstrainedFlexibilityscenario,whichtakesintoaccountgreaterinstitutionalandtechnicalbarrierstomanagingvariablegeneration,projectsthegreatestlevelofstoragedeployment,at152GWofinstalledstoragecapacityby2050.Thelowestlevelisfoundunderthe80%RE‐ETIscenario,whichincludeshighlevelsofCSPusewiththermalstorageandacorrespondingloweruseofvariablegenerationtechnologies.Conversely,greaterwinduseinthe80%RE‐NTIscenarioandgreaterwindandPVuseinthehigh‐demand80%renewableenergyscenariorequirehighlevelsofstoragedeployment.Withregardtodemandresponse,thereportconsidersafairlylimitedsetofoptions:• Interruptibleload(forprovisionofoperatingreserves)isconsideredusingregionalsupplycurvesbased

inlargemeasureonFERC(2009).Annualinterruptibleloadresourceavailabilityisbasedonapercentageofpeakdemandwithinaregion,andisassumedtogrowfromarangeof1%–8%in2010,to11%–17%in2030and16%–24%in2050.

• Newcontrollableloadscouldabsorbotherwiseunusablevariablegenerationoutput.Thestudynotably

dealswithschedulingchargingofelectricvehicles,sothatelectricityconsumptionattherechargestationwouldincreaseordecreaseaccordingtothenetsupplyofrenewableresources.Thereportsthusassumesthatasubstantialfraction(~40%)ofthepassengertransportationfleettransitionstoelectricandplug‐inelectricvehiclesby2050(inthelow‐demandprojection)andthatofthe356TWhofelectricvehicleloadin2050,165TWhwilloperateunderutility‐controlledcharging.TheremainingEVloadnotunderutilitycontrolisassumedtohaveadailychargingprofilethatpeaksduringeveninghours.

• Demand‐sidethermalenergystorageincommercialbuildingsisalsoconsidered.Inparticular,chilled

waterandicestoragecoolingcapableofshiftingairconditioningloadsarerepresented.

Different80%Scenarios

Low‐Demand High‐Demand

RE‐NTI

RE‐ITI RE‐ETI ConstrainedTransmission

ConstrainedFlexibility

ConstrainedResources

High‐DemandRenewables

DedicatedBiopower

142 122 100 129 152 131 136

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Withregardtotheflexibilityofconventionalfossilpowerplants,thereportassumesthatexistingandfutureplantscouldbeusedtoprovideincreasedsystemflexibility.Newergeneratorshavethecapabilitytohavefasterramprates,largerrampranges,andminimalpart‐loadheat‐ratedegradation,whichenhancestheabilityofsuchunitstofollowload.Insomecases,existingequipmentcanalsobemodifiedtoenhanceflexibility.Naturalgas‐fueledassetsarenormallymore‐flexibleresources,andtakingfulladvantageoftheirflexibilitymayinvolvenewoperationalpractices,includingadditionalgasstorage.Asrenewableelectricitysupplygrows,greaterinvestmentsintransmissionandgridinterconnectionwillbeneeded.(SeeFigureY‐5.)TheLow‐DemandBaselinescenariorequires5.1millionMW‐milesofnewtransmissionlinesandUS$1.8billionofinvestmentsperyear,whereasthe90%REscenariorequires197millionMW‐milesandUS$8.3billionperyear.FigureY‐5.

Asdemandincreases,variablewindandPVwillbedeployedtoagreaterextentinabsoluteandpercentagetermsduetotheirgreateravailability.Asaconsequence,additionalflexiblesupply‐anddemand‐sidetechnologies,suchasstoragefacilities,naturalgascombustionturbinepowerplants,andinterruptibleload,willbedeployedandgreatertransmissionexpansionwillbeneededtoconnectremotelylocatedrenewableresourcesofalltypes.

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31.Annual Energy Outlook 2012(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration(USDOEEIA),2012)ScenarioDescriptionThereportpresentslong‐termprojectionsofenergysupply,demand,andpricesintheUnitedStatesthrough2035.ThesearebasedonresultsfromtheEIA’sNationalEnergyModelingSystem(NEMS),whichincludesmodulesrepresentingtheindividualsupply,demand,andconversionsectorsofdomesticenergymarkets,aswellasinternationalandmacroeconomicmodulessuchasGDP,disposableincome,valueofindustrialshipments,newhousingstarts,salesofnewlight‐dutyvehicles,interestrates,andemployment.TheanalysisassumesGDPgrowthof2.5%annuallyfrom2010to2035,energyintensitygrowthof‐2.1%annuallyduringthisperiod,andanoilpriceofUS$145perbarrelin2035.KeyProjections/ResultsAccordingtothestudy,U.S.energyconsumptionwillgrowatanaverageannualrateof0.3%from2010to2035(anoverallincreaseofabout9%)toreach106.93quadrillionBTU.FossilfuelswillstilllargelydominatetheAmericanenergymix,althoughtheirsharewilldecreaseslightlyfrom84%to81%duringtheoutlookperiod,duemainlytoalesseningrelianceonoil.(SeeFigureZ‐1.)Theshareofnaturalgaswillincreaseduetorisingexploitationofshaleresources.Thedecliningshareoffossilfuelswillbeoffsetbytheincreasingshareofrenewableenergy,from7%to11%.Nuclear’ssharewillremainunder10%.

Electricitygenerationwillincreasebynearly21%.Theshareofcoalwilldecreasesignificantlyfrom45%in2010to38%in2035.Thisdecreasewillbeoffsetfirstbygenerationfromrenewables,whichwillincrease2.3%annuallyonaveragetoreachanapproximately15%shareofU.S.electricityby2035,andthenbynaturalgas,whichwillachievea28%share(up4pointsover2010).(SeeFigureZ‐2.)Renewablesinstalledcapacityinthepowersector(poweronly)willincreasefrom125.2GWin2010to169.3in2035,torepresent16%(up3pointsover2010)ofU.S.installedcapacity.

38 35

25 26

21 20

9 97 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2035

FigureZ‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinU.S.TotalEnergyConsumpUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Naturalgas

Liquids

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Totalrenewablesinstalledcapacityinallsectorswillincrease50%,fromabout134GWin2010tonearly201GWin2035.(SeeFigureZ‐3.)Solarwillhavethefastestannualgrowthintermsofbothinstalledcapacity(8.6%)andgeneration(9.6%)duringtheoutlookperiod.

70 67

20 18

10 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2035

FigureZ‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinU.S.ElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

78 82

11 2039

70

623

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2035

GW

FigureZ‐3.CumulaUveRenewableEnergyCapacityintheUnitedStates

SolarPV

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

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32.Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable (United States) Energy Outlook(GreenpeaceandEuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil(EREC),2010)ScenarioDescriptionThescenariousesabottom‐up,technology‐drivenapproachtoillustratethepossibilityof100%renewablepowerintheUnitedStatesby2050.Itpresentsthreedistinctscenarios:aReferencescenario,anEnergy[R]evolutionscenario(EREV),andanAdvancedEnergy[R]evolutionscenario(AEREV).ThetwoEnergy[R]evolutionscenarioslookatthepotentialoffirstreducingelectricitydemandthroughenergyefficiencyandthenprovidingelectricitythroughdecentralizedrenewablesources.Itexplorestheuseofsmartgridsandexpandedsupergridsasawaytoconnectthedecentralizedsystems.Inthetransportsector,themainevolutionsaresignificantdevelopmentofhybrid/electricvehiclesby2050andtheuseofbiofuels.Nuclearenergyistobephasedoutby2050.ThemainassumptionsareaU.S.populationofabout404million,anaveragecrudeoilpriceofaboutUS$150perbarrelin2050,andacoalpriceofaboutUS$172.3pertonnein2050.KeyProjections/ResultsInboth“revolution”scenarios,U.S.energydemandwilldecreasetoapproximately59,000PJperyearin2050,asaresultofenergyefficiencymeasures,thephasingoutofnuclear,andreduceddependenceonfossilfuels.Meanwhile,theshareofrenewableenergywillincreaseconsiderably.By2050,renewableswillaccountfor71%ofU.S.primaryenergydemandundertheEREVscenario,and87%undertheAEREVscenario.(SeeFigureAA‐1.)

By2050,renewableswillaccountfor99%ofU.S.electricityundertheAEREVscenario,andmorethan96%undertheEREVscenario,reflectingthefactthatarenewables‐basedfutureispossible.(SeeFigureAA‐2.)Wind,solarthermal,andsolarPVwillrepresentsome62%oftotalgeneration,andrenewableswillprovide74%oftotalheat,mainlyfrombiomassandsolarcollectors.

85 7965

5374

2913

910

11

11

5 1135

46

14

7187

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ref EREV AEREV Ref EREV AEREV

2007 2030 2050

FigureAA‐1.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinU.S.EnergyDemand

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

68

Intermsofinstalledcapacity,solarPVwillhavethebiggestgrowth,reachingnearly800GWintheEREVscenarioand900GWintheAEREVscenario.Windwillfollow,andsolarthermalwillalsoshowsignificantgrowth.Inthereferencescenario,windwillpasshydroasthemainrenewableenergysource.(SeeFigureAA‐3.)

72 6441 21

61

4 1

19 18

11

179 18

58 78

22

96 99

020406080100

Ref EREV AEREV Ref EREV AEREV

2007 2030 2050

FigureAA‐2.ShareofPrimaryEnergySourcesinU.S.ElectricityGeneraUon

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossilfuels

100 102 146 146 106 153 158118401 584

178521 67843

69 81102

35

387450

70

787896

167

282

261

335

57

108

225

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Ref EREV AEREV Ref EREV AEREV

2007 2030 2050

FigureAA‐3.CumulaUveRenewableEnergySourcesintheUnitedStates

Ocean

Solarthermal

SolarPV

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

GW

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33.Climate 2030: A National Blueprint for a Clean Energy Economy(UnionofConcernedScientists,2009)ScenarioDescriptionThereportaimstoprovideacomprehensivesetofsmartpolicies(“theBlueprintpolicies”)thatwouldhelptheUnitedStatestransitiontoagreenerandmoresustainableeconomy.Thesepoliciesincludeaneconomy‐widecap‐and‐tradeprogram(withauctioningofallcarbonallowances)combinedwithminimumfederalenergyefficiencystandardsforspecificappliancesandequipment,advancedenergycodesandtechnologiesforbuildings,andarenewableelectricitystandardforretailelectricityproviders.Ifthesepoliciesarepursued,thereportconcludesthatU.S.heat‐trappingemissionswilldecrease56%in2030comparedtotheir2005level.Thereportexplorestwomainscenarios;aReferenceone,whichassumesnonewclimate,energy,ortransportationpoliciesbeyondthoseinplaceasofOctober2008,andaBlueprintone,whichresultsfromthepoliciesdescribedaboveandthatincludesonlytechnologiesthatarecommerciallyavailabletodayorlikelytobeavailablewithinthenexttwodecades.Thus,theanalysisexcludestechnologiessuchasthin‐filmsolar,waveandtidalpower,advancedstorageandsmartgridtechnologies,dramaticexpansionofall‐electriccarsandtrucks,andbreakthroughsinthird‐generationbiofuels.ThestudyreliesonamodifiedversionoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sNationalEnergyModelingSystem,whichhasbeensupplementedwithananalysisoftheimpactofgreaterenergyefficiencyinindustryandbuildingsbytheAmericanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomy,andresultsfromresearchonthepotentialforcropsandresiduestoprovidebiomassenergy.KeyProjections/ResultsWithimplementationoftheBlueprintpolicies,whichstimulatesignificantconsumer,business,andgovernmentinvestmentsinnewtechnologiesandmeasuresby2030,U.S.energyusewilldecreasebyone‐thirdby2030,withassociatedreductionsincarbonemissions.Consumersandbusinesseswillreapsignificantnetsavings,whiletheUnitedStateswillseestrongGDPgrowthof81%between2005and2030(only3pointslessthanintheReferencescenario).Theresultingsavingsonenergybillsfromreductionsinelectricityandfuelusewillmorethanoffsetthecostsoftheseadditionalinvestments.Thecarbonpricewillberelativelylow,withcarbonallowancesreachingUS$70in2030(in2006dollars).By2030,theuseofrenewableenergyfromwind,solar,geothermal,andbiomasswillincrease25%,tosupply40%ofU.S.electricity.Renewableelectricityuseinadvancedvehiclessuchasplug‐inhybridswillalsobegintogrowsignificantlyby2030.