renewables global futures report 2013
TRANSCRIPT
The future of renewable energy –an overview of a range of credible
options
Eric MartinotReport Author, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Plenary Opening Interview ADIREC Renewable Energy Outlook
Abu Dhabi 16/1/2013
Source: UNEP/ Bloomberg: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2011
Global Renewable Energy Investment 2004 - 2011
Source: Global Status Report 2012
Historic Projections Fall Short
CEOs, Presidents
Financiers
Researchers
Heads of Industry Associations
Consultants
Academics
Public Advocates
Policymakers
Multilateral Agency StaffElectricity Utility Managers
Parliamentarians
Regulatory Staff
Journalists
City Government Official
Controlled curtailment of renewables
Demand response
Gas turbines (peaking and non-peaking)
Strengthened transmission capacity and interconnection
Energy storage
Ramping and cycling of conventional plants
New power market designs that support greater flexibility
Expanded diversity of resources within geographic grid balancing areas
Co-ordination/merging of balancing areas under balancing authorities
Faster balancing response times through market/operational mechanisms
New types of system optimization
Power dispatch models that incorporate day-ahead weather forecasts
Technical, Market, and Regulatory Options to Balance Renewables
“Integration is in our face over the next five to ten years” (utility power grids, buildings, transport and industry).
“Integration is not just about hardware, but also about how power markets function”
Expert Views on Integration
Futures at the Local/City Level
Public infrastructure
Community investment
Municipal utilities
Planning approaches for low-energy buildings
Renewable (and district) heating and cooling
Public transport fleets
Electric vehicle infrastructure
Smart cities
Innovative Approaches and Visions at the Local/City Level
EU 20% target by 2020, including 10% transport
US state level policies push continued market growth
Japan targets 33 GW of solar PV and 9.5 GW of winds by 2020
China became a world leader in wind power in just five years
India projects 90 GW wind power by 2022 and targets 20 GW PV
and CSP and 20 million rural lighting systems
National (and EU) Snapshots of Markets and Policies
At national level, at least 30 countries around the world already have shares of renewable energy 20%.
120 countries have various types of policy targets for long-term shares of renewable energy
Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares the 2020-2030 times frame that range from 10-50%
Markets Expand and Diversity
New electric power infrastructure
Diesel generator replacement
New settlements
New power-market rules
Regional cooperation frameworks
Local manufacturing / rural (off-grid) energy services
Projected markets in a much greater number of developing countries on a bigger scale will create a diverse geographic base for renewables
Developing Countries – Unique Opportunities for Renewables
Solar PV: Grid parity spreads around the world
CSP: Dedicated applications and grid balancing
Wind Onshore: Competitive with conventional energy
Wind Offshore: Cost reduction in logistics and long-term O&M
Biofuels: Advanced biofuels from agriculture and forestry wastes
Biomass: Wide variety of new approaches, greater use in heating
Global Markets Continue to Evolve
“The future of renewable energy is fundamentally a choice, not a foregone conclusion given technology and economic trends”
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Contact Us to Participate in the Ongoing Discussion
Eric Martinot ISEP [email protected]
Lily Riahi REN21 [email protected]
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