renewable energy in china: towards a sustainable …biomass natural gas ... lessons from china...
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Renewable Energy in China: Towards a Sustainable
Development
The World Bank GroupSeptember 2010
Dejan R. OstojicSector Leader ‐ Energy
East Asia and Pacific RegionThe World Bank
Structure of the PresentationContext and challenges
Outlook
WBG role
Lessons learned
Towards sustainable development
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CHINA
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China is part of the solution to key global energy issues
Climate Change• High energy
consumption• High carbon content of
energy use• Largest total CO2
emissions• Large population, low
per capita CO2
• Consumption to double 2005‐2030
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CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES
Energy Security• Rapid increase in oil and gas importsRapid economic growth, urbanization, and improving quality of life while shifting to less energy‐ and carbon‐intensive economy, cities, and lifestyle
Primary energy consumption and GDP (1980‐2005)
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CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES
0
10
20
30
40
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Prim
ary
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpt
ion
(Mbo
e/d)
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
GD
P (b
illio
n 20
00 R
MB)
coal
oil
biomass
natural gas
hydro & nuclear
GDP
10x GDP, 3x Energy Consumption, but still a mixed result on energy intensity
Government Actions: 11th 5‐Year Plan (2006‐2010)
Government targetsEnergy intensity to be reduced by 20% between 2005 and 2010Non‐fossil fuel share in energy mix to rise to 15% by 2020Carbon intensity to be reduced by 40–45% between 2005 and 2020
Recent performanceEnergy conservation key policy objective across all levels of governmentUpward trend in energy intensity reversed, energy intensity cut by 14.4% between 2006 and 2009 according to official statisticsDoubling of installed wind capacity each year between 2005 and 2009
Remaining ChallengesIndustry’s share in primary energy consumption still very high (70%), coal share in energy mix remains at 69%, and renewable energy use faces challenges (e.g. wind power connections to grid)
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CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES
OUTLOOK
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China needs to half its energy intensity and power generation would need to shift dramatically by 2030
ENV Scenario(1,975 GW)
CCP Scenario(2,336 GW)
OUTLOOK
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ENV scenario is increasingly affordable as the economy continue to grow, but the incremental cost is large
• 40% energy lending was for RE/EE in FY09—a 24% increase from FY08
• Nearly $4.5 billion invested in programs directly dealing with energy access
WORLD BANK GROUP’S ROLE IN ENERGYWORLD BANK GROUP’S ROLE IN ENERGY
Sectoral Distribution (FY2004–09)
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China Portfolio 1999–2009
WORLD BANK GROUP’S ROLE IN ENERGY
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IBRD, GEF, carbon finance – $1.6 billion
90% renewable and energy efficiency, $1.4 billion
Highlights of Current Portfolio
WORLD BANK GROUP’S ROLE IN ENERGY
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China Renewable Scale Up Program:• Wind, small hydropower, biomass demonstration (IBRD)• Policy studies (supporting regulations for renewable energy
law), capacity building and wind/biomass/small hydro technology improvement (GEF)
Energy Efficiency (EE) Program:• Industrial EE and Financial Intermediary Lending • Provincial Energy Efficiency Scale Up Program (ESCO)
New Technologies:
• Green Energy for Low Carbon Cities (EE, smart grids, distributedRE, EVs)
• Off‐shore Wind
• Energy Storage and Carbon Capture and Storage
Effective policies are key success factor:
Mandatory access to grid
Tariffs covering incremental costs (0.06 cents/kWh in China)
Competitive tendering mechanisms
Technology transfer and capacity building through cost‐shared R&D (standards, testing and certification)
Technical assistance and seed funding to entrepreneurs
Help leverage local financing and improve capacity of local financial institutions to support renewable energy
Lessons from China Renewable Energy Program
LESSONS LEARNED
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From Scale‐up to Sustainable Growth
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
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15%
• Cost reduction• Efficiency improvement
• Grid integration• Level‐playing field
RE competes in open market
8%
2010 2015 20202005
RE small share:Incentives manageable
RE large share:cost matters
Sector reform
Sustainable Scale‐Up
Scale‐Up: More GW in a short time
• Develop and implement policies• Build up domestic RE industry
Energy pricing reforms are key for clean energy
TOWARDS SUSTANABLE DEVELOPMENT
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CO2 Aba
temen
t cost
Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy
•Regulations and financial incentives• Financing mechanisms• Institutional reform
• Feed‐in Tariff or Renewable Portfolio Standard• Tax on fossil fuel
• Support for R&D• Financing incremental cost • Technology transfer
New Technologies
Energy pricing reforms
Visit the World Bank’s websiteto share your views,
stay updated, and get more information.
http://www.worldbank.org/energyconsultations
SEEKING YOUR INPUT
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Thank you