RISIKO KETERGANTUNGAN PADA ENERGI FOSIL DAN SOLUSINYA

Faisal Basri 21 Agustus 2013

IDeterioration of External Balance

Trade deficit I: oil and gas*January-JuneSource: Badan Pusat Statistik.US$ billions

Chart1

1063106300

-34277657423

-382886804852

-7365107203355

-7920120394119

-97399895156

-1432712900-1427

-8409844738

-1212012843723

-2068221459777

-2303117439-5592

-133807560-5820

Oil & oil products

Gas

Oil & gas

Sheet1

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013*

Oil & oil products10-342-3828-7365-7920-9739-14327-8409-12120-20682-23031-13380.0

Gas631077658680107201203998951290084471284321459174397560.0

Oil & gas63007423485233554119156-142738723777-5592-5820.0

Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$)* January-June. Source: BPS.Impor migas 2012: US$42 miliar atau 22.2% dari total impor

NoGolongan barang2010201120122013* 1 Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak) 18,018 28,134 28,68013,660 2 Mesin dan peralatan mekanik 20,019 24,729 28,41513,330 3 Mesin dan peralatan listrik 15,633 18,245 18,9029,518 4 Minyak mentah 8,531 11,154 10,8036,897 5 Besi dan baja 6,372 8,580 10,1405,418 6 Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya 5,737 7,603 9,7534,176 7 Plastik dan barang dari plastik 4,817 6,688 6,9913,803 8 Bahan kimia organik 5,326 6,635 6,8833,548 9 Barang dari besi dan baja 3,451 3,573 4,8892,593 10 Kapal terbang dan bagiannya 3,528 3,421 4,495- 11 Serealia 2,159 4,753 3,7141,750 12 Gas 863 1,412 3,0821548 13 Sisa industri makanan - 2,219 2,7981,407

Trade balance of oil and oil products* January-June. Source: BPS.

20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013* Crude Oil Exports5,6216,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,40313,82912,2935,116 Imports -3,928 -5,831-6,797-7,853-9,057-10,062-7,362 -8,531-11,154-10,803-6,897 (X - M)1,6944101,3493161692,357 4581,8722,6751,490-1,781Oil Products Exports 1,5481,6541,932 2,8442,879 3,547 2,262 3,9674,7774,1592,061 Imports-3,583 -5,892-10,646-11,080 -12,787-20,231-11,129 -18,018-28,134-28,680-13,660 (X - M) -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 -14,051-23,357-24,521-11,599Total Exports 7,169 7,89610,07811,013 12,105 15,966 10,08214,37018,60616,4527,177 Imports -7,510-11,724-17,443-18,933 -21,844-30,293 -18,491 -26,549-39,288-39,483-20,557 (X - M)342-3,828-7,365 -7,920-9,739-14,327-8,409-12,179 -20,682-23,031-13,380

More dominated by exctactive products

Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic quarterly, July 2013: 3.Export composition, 2012 (percent)

Chart1

13.8

10.2

9.3

6.5

4.2

2.4

53.6

Sales

Coal13.8

Natural gas10.2

Palm oil9.3

Crude oil6.5

Rubber4.2

Copper2.4

Others53.6

Sheet1

Sales

Coal13.8

Natural gas10.2

Palm oil9.3

Crude oil6.5

Rubber4.2

Copper2.4

Others53.6

Trade deficit II: food productsSources: Badan Pusat Statistik.US$ billions

Chart1

3503.4-2783.5719.9

3254.4-2497.8756.6

3606.5-2852.8753.7

3665.7-3121.7544

3969.1-3787182.1

4575.3-4012.4563

5125.6-4709.8415.9

5891.7-6892.8-1001.1

7927-7946.3-19.3

7020.5-7275.2-254.7

8276.3-9675.4-1399.1

10114.6-14335.3-4220.7

10742.5-13342.3-2599.7

Exports

Imports

Surplus (deficit)

Sheet1

ExportsImportsSurplus (deficit)

20003,503.40-2783.5719.9

20013,254.40-2497.8756.6

20023,606.50-2852.8753.7

20033,665.70-3121.7544

20043,969.10-3787182.1

20054,575.30-4012.4563

20065125.6-4709.8415.9

20075891.7-6892.8-1001.1

20087927-7946.3-19.3

20097020.5-7275.2-254.7

20108276.3-9675.4-1399.1

201110114.6-14335.3-4220.7

201210742.5-13342.3-2599.7

Trade deficit III: manufacturing productsUS$ billionsSources: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Chart1

36331.5-2114715184.5

32513.2-19500.113013.1

32001.2-18964.113037.1

32946.4-18922.914023.5

37833.9-27121.510712.4

42993.9-32477.610516.3

48163.5-33367.714795.8

52939.5-40671.812267.7

58031.1-82440.4-24409.3

51138-64853.1-13715.1

64615.9-90414.1-25798.1

76457.2-111371.6-34914.4

74100.1-125538.1-51438

Exports

Imports

Surplus (Deficit)

Sheet1

ExportsImportsSurplus (Deficit)

200036331.5-2114715184.5

200132513.2-19500.113013.1

200232001.2-18964.113037.1

200332946.4-18922.914023.5

200437833.9-27121.510712.4

200542993.9-32477.610516.3

200648163.5-33367.714795.8

200752939.5-40671.812267.7

200858031.1-82440.4-24409.3

200951138-64853.1-13715.1

201064615.9-90414.1-25798.1

201176457.2-111371.6-34914.4

201274100.1-125538.1-51438

Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Maintaining Resilience, October 2012.Indonesias exports have shifted toward raw commodities & resource-based manufactured(Share of Indonesias non-oil and gas exports, percent)

Foreign merchandise tradeBillion US$Growth (yoy)Description*January.-June.Source: BPS.

2010201120122013*2010201120122013*Total export157.7203.5190.091.1 35.429.0-6.6-6.1 Non-oil and gas129.7162.0153.174.8 33.024.9-5.5-2.6 Oil and gas 28.041.537.016.347.548.3-10.9-19.3Total import135.6177.4191.794.4 40.030.78.0-2.2 Non-oil and gas108.2136.7149.172.3 39.026.29.0-3.7 Oil and gas 27.440.742.622.1 44.248.44.63.1Surplus (Deficit) 22.126.1(-1.7)(-3.3) Non-oil and gas 21.525.34.02.5 Oil and gas0.60.8(-5.6)(-5.8)

Balance of payments (US$ million)Source: Bank Indonesia.

20112012Q1-12Q2-12Q3-12Q4-12Q1-13Q2-13 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 1,685 -24,431-3,164-8,176-5,264-7,827-5,819-9,848 A. Goods, net (Trade account) 34,783 8,618 3,810 818 3,190 8011,602-601 1. Exports, f.o.b. 200,788 188,496 48,353 47,538 45,54947,05645,23145,670 2. Imports, f.o.b.-166,005 179,878 -44,543 -46,720 -42,360 -46.255-43,629-46,272 B. Services, net -10,632 -10,331-1,983-2,790 -2,359-3,198-2,480-3,070 C. Income, net -26,676 -26,748 -6,048-7,101 -6,955-6,643-6,044-7,140 D. Current Transfer, net 4,211 4,0291,058 898 861 1,2131,102962II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 13,767 25,148 2,0965,087 5,88512,080-3288,199 A. Capital Account 33 37 5 3 8 2212 B. Financial Account 13,734 25,111 2,0915,085 5,87812,058-3298,196 1. Direct investment 11,728 13,982 1,5503,747 4,5394,1463,8763,324 2. Portfolio investment 3,806 9,206 2,628 3,873 2,5161902,7602,529 3. Other investment -1,801 1,922 -2,087 -2,535 -1,1777,722-6,9662,343III. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -3,395 -503 34 277 213-1,027468-827IV. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -11,857 -215 1,034 2,811 -834 -3,225 6,6152,477

Heart beat has been depreciating...Source: Bank Indonesia(Rupiah per US$)21/08/2013 = Rp 10.723/US$. Pada 15 Juli 2013 pertama kali menembus Rp 10.000 sejak 9 September 2009.

Foreign reservesSource: Bank Indonesia.(US$ billion)Jan-Mar cadangan devisa tergerus US$8 miliar, dari US$112,8 miliar akhir Des 2012 jadi US$ 104,8 miliar akhir Mar 2013. Akhir Apr naik US$2,5 miliar, tapi 3 bulan terakhir turun tajam US$14,6 miliar. Posisi akhir Juli US$92,7 miliar.

Chart1

36186.9

36102.5

36181.2

35924.8

36004.3

36323.8

36268.6

36000.7

35851.3

36627.3

37079.3

37419.2

37419.3

37095.7

37041.2

37080.7

37098.6

36645.2

36608.3

36469.6

35652.5

35020.4

34999.7

34851

35086.7

34870.5

34937.8

34810.5

34805.5

34974

34977.6

34821.9

34497.3

34573.5

34833.7

34802.2

34715.6

34807.5

34978.7

35353.2

35542.1

35417.4

35675.6

35927.4

35809.5

35526.9

35897.2

36320.5

36004.2

35894.7

36034.5

36092.2

36081

36061.9

36602.4

36542.1

36674.4

36536.9

36043.3

36030.1

36071

35955.2

37324.7

36428.8

35864.4

35104.7

34893.6

34612.6

34617.8

34271.4

34378.8

33865.4

32743.3

31935.7

32105.1

32208.4

32500.8

32517.5

32024.5

31180.3

31154.8

30244.1

30414.8

30318.3

30443.4

32190.3

32360.8

32530.4

32697.8

32357.6

33076.8

33239.8

33396

33537.2

34069.2

34723.7

35076.7

35535.1

38900

40081.6

41100

42811.6

44169.2

40107.1

41125.8

41995.4

42352.9

39895.4

41578.6

42586.3

43266.3

45690

47221.2

49154.8

50112.8

50924.4

51879.8

52237

52061.64

51443.49

51426.42

51608.06

51992.9

52972.53

52875.13

53453.93

53083.56

53752.14

54154.23

55227.72

55136.4

56029.18

54897.03

55134.07

54964.13

56649.68

56920.13

56906.15

56349.4

57446.53

55998.74

56232.82

56367.31

57168.43

57125.11

58256.79

59030.98

59252.95

58987.31

58556.01

58764.64

59374.1

58769.99

58670.09

58030.67

58770.05

57464.34

56935.17

55799.45

56599.11

59452.59

59123.87

59747.03

60179.65

60563.48

60294.88

57978.11

58414.96

58356.43

57154.36

56787.65

57471.26

57107.97

56514.31

52433.54

50448.1

50580.16

50181.61

51639

50870

50564

54840.17

56565.91

57934.1

57576.02

57418.45

57943.04

62287.15

64528.45

65844.16

66104.86

69562.48

69730.61

71823.21

78582.76

74587.29

76321.25

78794.08

81317.21

86550.64

91800

92759.28

96206.85

95331.56

99618.83

105709.08

113814.19

118108.84

119654.75

122670.95

124637.75

114502.4

113961.76

111315.94

110122.84

111990.49

112219.56

110493.27

116413.02

111528.07

106502.39

106558.99

108990.39

110172.24

110297.16

111285.11

112781.22

108779.95

105182.65

104799.86

107268.5

105148.53

98095.1

92671.06

Reserves

Sheet1

W1-JaW2-JaW3-JaW4-JaW1-FeW2-FeW3-FeW4-FeW1-MaW2-MaW3-MaW4-MaW1-ApW2-ApW3-ApW4-ApW1-MyW2-MyW3-MyW4-MyW1-JnW2-JnW3-JnW4-JnW1-JlW2-JlW3-JlW4-JlW1-AgW2-AgW3-AgW4-AgW1-SepW2-SepW3-SepW4-SepW1-OctW2-OctW3-OctW4-OctW1-NovW2-NovW3-NovW4-NovW1-DecW2-DecW3-DecW4-DecW1-JanW2-JanW3-JanW4-JanW1-FebW2-FebW3-FebW4-FebW1-MarW2-MarW3-MarW4-MarW1-AprW2-AprW3-AprW4-AprW1-MayW2-MayW3-MayW4-MayW1-JunW2-JunW3-JunW4-JunW1-JulW2-JulW3-JulW4-JulW1-AugW2-AugW3-AugW4-AugW1-SepW2-SepW3-SepW4-SepW1-OctW2-OctW3-OctW4-OctW1-NovW2-NovW3-NovW4-NovW1-DecW2-DecW3-DecW4-DecW4-JanW4-Feb10-Mar31-MarW2-AprW4-Apr31-May30-Jun31-Jul31-Aug29-Sep31-Oct30-Nov29-Dec31-Jan28-Feb30-Mar27-Apr31-May29-Jun31-Jul8-Aug15-Aug23-Aug31-Aug7-Sep14-Sep21-Sep28-Sep5-Oct11-Oct23-Oct31-Oct7-Nov15-Nov23-Nov30-Nov7-Dec14-Dec19-Dec28-Dec7-Jan15-Jan23-Jan31-Jan6-Feb13-Feb22-Feb29-Feb6-Mar14-Mar19-Mar31-Mar7-Apr15-Apr23-Apr30-Apr7-May15-May23-May30-May6-Jun13-Jun23-Jun30-Jun7-Jul15-Jul23-Jul31-Jul7-Aug15-Aug22-Aug29-Aug5-Sep15-Sep23-Sep26-Sep7-Oct15-Oct24-Oct31-OctNov-28Dec-31Jan-30Feb-27Mar-30Apr-30May-29Jun-30Jul-31Aug-31Sep-3030-Oct30-Nov30-Dec29-Jan25-Feb31-Mar30-Apr31-May30-Jun30-Jul31-Aug30-Sep29-Oct30-Nov31-Dec31-Jan28-Feb31-Mar29-Apr31-May30-Jun29-Jul26-Aug30-Sep31-Oct30-Nov30-Dec31-Jan29-Feb30-Mar30-Apr31-May29-Jun31-Jul31-Aug28-Sep31-Oct30-Nov28-Dec31-Jan28-Feb28-Mar30-Apr31-May28-Jun31-Jul

Reserves36186.9036102.5036181.2035924.8036004.3036323.8036268.6036000.7035851.3036627.3037079.3037419.2037419.3037095.7037041.2037080.7037098.6036645.2036608.3036469.6035652.5035020.4034999.7034851.0035086.7034870.5034937.8034810.5034805.5034974.0034977.6034821.9034497.3034573.5034833.7034802.2034715.6034807.5034978.7035353.2035542.1035417.4035675.6035927.4035809.5035526.9035897.2036320.5036004.2035894.7036034.5036092.2036081.0036061.9036602.4036542.1036674.4036536.9036043.3036030.1036071.0035955.2037324.7036428.8035864.4035104.7034893.6034612.6034617.8034271.4034378.8033865.4032743.3031935.7032105.1032208.4032500.8032517.5032024.5031180.3031154.8030244.1030414.8030318.3030443.4032190.3032360.8032530.4032697.8032357.6033076.8033239.8033396.0033537.2034069.2034723.7035076.7035535.1038900.0040081.6041100.0042811.6044169.2040107.1041125.8041995.4042352.9039895.4041578.6042586.3043266.3045690.0047221.2049154.8050112.8050924.4051879.8052237.0052061.6451443.4951426.4251608.0651992.9052972.5352875.1353453.9353083.5653752.1454154.2355227.7255136.4056029.1854897.0355134.0754964.1356649.6856920.1356906.1556349.4057446.5355998.7456232.8256367.3157168.4357125.1158256.7959030.9859252.9558987.3158556.0158764.6459374.1058769.9958670.0958030.6758770.0557464.3456935.1755799.4556599.1159452.5959123.8759747.0360179.6560563.4860294.8857978.1158414.9658356.4357,154.3656,787.6557,471.2657,107.9756,514.3152,433.5450,44850,580.1650181.615163950,8705056454840.1756565.9157934.157576.0257418.4557943.0462287.1564528.4565,844.1666104.8669562.4869730.6171823.2178582.7674,587.2976321.2578794.0881317.2186550.649180092759.2896206.8595,331.5699618.83105709.08113814.19118108.84119654.75122670.95124637.75114502.40113961.76111315.94110122.84111990.49112219.56110493.27116413.02111528.07106502.39106558.99108990.39110172.24110297.16111285.11112781.22108779.95105182.65104799.86107268.50105148.5398095.1092,671.06

IDX has fallen sharply since June 2013(Jakarta composite index)On August 20, 2013:year to date -3,3% year on year 0,3%

IIFiscal Burden

Subsidi BBM, defisit APBNSubsidi BBM telah merongrong APBN. Selama 9 tahun terakhir, hampir selalu (8 tahun) subsidi BBM lebih besar dari nilai defisit APBN. Hanya tahun 2009 saja subsidi BBM lebih kecil dari defisit APBN.Defisit APBN ditutup dengan utang, yakni menerbitkan Surat Utang Negara (SUN).Berarti, secara tak langsung subsidi BBM dibiayai oleh utang pemerintah.

Alokasi subsidi pada APBN, 2009-2013Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan

Nilai (Trill Rp)PersenJenis subsidi2009201020112012201320092010201120122013BBM, LPG,BBN45.0482.35165.16211.90193.8032.6242.7355.9261.1857.63Listrik49.5557.6090.4594.58100.035.8829.8930.6227.3129.74Pangan12.9915.1516.5419.1217.209.417.865.605.524.08Pupuk18.3318.4116.3413.9616.2313.279.555.534.034.83Benih1.602.180.100.061.451.161.130.030.020.43PSO1.341.371.831.931.520.970.710.620.560.45Kredit program1.070.821.521.111.250.770.420.510.320.37Pajak8.1714.823.413.714.825.927.691.151.071.43Bhn baku kedelai0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Minyak goreng 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Obat generik0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total138.08192.71295.36346.36336.27100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00

Minyak sudah tekor (triliun rupiah)Sources: Kementerian Keuangan

Chart1

18.3690.05108.4145.04

22.83111.81134.6482.35

25.94141.3167.24165.16

32.98144.74177.72211.9

23.99120.92144.91193.8

PPh Minyak

PNBP Minyak

Total

Subsidi BBM

Sheet1

PPh MinyakPNBP MinyakTotalSubsidi BBM

200918.3690.05108.4145.04

201022.83111.81134.6482.35

201125.94141.3167.24165.16

201232.98144.74177.72211.9

201323.99120.92144.91193.8

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Belanja Pemerintah pusat * APBN-PSources: Kementerian KeuanganPenerimaan minyak Rp 178 triliun, subsidi BBM Rp 240 triliunTriliun rupiah

Chart1

54.229.232.965.2104.524.9

73.247.25579.194.640.7

90.454.564.379.8116.949.8

112.85672.888.422357.7

127.780.775.993.894.673.8

148.197.680.388.414068.6

175.7124.6117.993.3255.671.1

212.3137.2140.2100.5306.575.3

241.6200.7184.4113.2299.973.6

Belanja pegawai

Belanja Barang

Belanja modal

Bunga utang

Subsidi energi

Bantuan sosial

Sheet1

Belanja pegawaiBelanja BarangBelanja modalBunga utangSubsidi energiBantuan sosial

200554.229.232.965.2104.524.9

200673.247.25579.194.640.7

200790.454.564.379.8116.949.8

2008112.85672.888.422357.7

2009127.780.775.993.894.673.8

2010148.197.680.388.414068.6

2011175.7124.6117.993.3255.671.1

2012212.3137.2140.2100.5306.575.3

2013*241.6200.7184.4113.2299.973.6

Budget deficit and primary balancePrimary balance: central government revenues minus central government expenditure except for interest payments on the central government debt.(IDR trillion)*APBN ** APBN-PSource: Ministry of Finance.

YearTotalRevenuesTotalExpenditureDeficit(% of GDP))Primary balance2005495.2509.614.4 (0.52) 50.8 2006638.0667.129.1 (0.87) 49.9 2007707.8757.649.8 (1.26) 30.0 2008981.6985.74.1 (0.08) 84.3 2009848.8937.488.6( 1.58) 5.2 2010995.31,042.146.8 (0.73) 41.5 20111,210.61,295.084.4 (1.14) 8.9 20121,335.71,481.7146.0 (1.77) -45.5 2013*1,529.71,683.0153.3 (1.70) -40.12013**1,502.01,726.2224.2 (2.38)-71.6

APBN 2013 vs. APBN-P 2013 Source: Ministry off Finance

APBN 2013APBN-P 2013Growth (%)6.86.3Inflation (%)4.97.2Rp/US$9,3009,600SPN-3 month (%)55Oil price (US$/barrel)100108Oil lifting (000 barrels))900840Gas lifting (000 barrel oil eq)1,2401,240Total Revenues (Rp trillion)1,5301,502Total Spending (Rp trillion)1,6831,726Surplus/deficit (Rp trillion)-153-224 % of GDP-1.65-2.38Primary balance (Rp trillion)-40.1-71.6

IIIMisallocation of Resources

Indonesias oil reservesMillion barrelsSource: Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Oil and Gas in Indonesia, various issues.

Chart1

51234490

50954659

47225025

44374657

43014312

44403660

43704310

39904410

37504470

43033690

42303534

40403690

Proven

Potential

Sheet1

ProvenPotentialSeries 3

200051234490

200150954659

200247225025

200344374657

200443014312

200544403660

200643704310

200739904410

200837504470

200943033690

201042303534

201140403690

Indonesia: oil production & consumptionSource: United States Energy Information Administration, for oil production; and BP Statistical Review of World Energy, for oil consumptionThousand barrel/dayOil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passingthrough surface separating facilities.

Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included.ImportsConsumptionProduction

Chart1

1577396

1605442

1339457

1343448

1412477

1325468

1390494

1343512

1342537

1409571

1462653

1592692

1504745

1511786

1510807

1503879

1547923

15201026

1518981

14721024

14281156

13401138

12491184

11551210

10961278

10671263

10191234

9631271

9861263

9691316

9531426

8961430

8601472.9

Production

Consumption

Sheet1

ProductionConsumption

19801577.00396.00

19811605.00442.00

19821339.00457.00

19831343.00448.00

19841412.00477.00

19851325.00468.00

19861390.00494.00

19871343.00512.00

19881342.00537.00

19891409.00571.00

19901462.00653.00

19911592.00692.00

19921504.00745.00

19931511.00786.00

19941510.00807.00

19951503.00879.00

19961547.00923.00

19971520.001026.00

19981518.00981.00

19991472.001024.00

20001428.001156.00

20011340.001138.00

20021249.001184.00

20031155.001210.00

20041096.001278.00

20051067.001263.00

20061019.001234.00

2007963.001271.00

2008986.001263.00

2009969.001316.00

2010953.001426.00

2011896.001430.00

2012860.001472.90

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.Road sector gasoline fuel comsumption per capita(kg of oil equivalent), 2010

Chart1

12

30

50

50

73

79

86

132

164

175

223

234

318

336

413

646

1108

Series 1

79

Sheet1

Series 1

India12

Philippines30

Vietnam50

China50

Thailand73

Indonesia79

Brazil86

South Africa132

Korea164

Singapore175

Germany223

Iran234

Malaysia318

Japan336

Venezuela413

Saudi Arabia646

United Staes1,108

Part IVIntergenerational Justice

PhilosophyFossil fuels adalah sumber daya tak terbarukan. Generasi mendatang juga punya hak untuk menikmatinya (keadilan antar-generasi).Petroleum funds untuk menjembatani. Dana pendapatan minyak (bagi hasil dan pajak keuntungan perusahaan minyak) dikelola agar bisa dinikmati generasi mendatang. Atau, dana yang dihimpun sekarang digunakan untuk membangun penguatan daya topang generasi mendatang: infrastruktur, fasilitas riset dan pendidikan, energi terbarukan, dsb.

Petroleum fund of Timor-LesteThe Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste was formed by the enactment of the Petroleum Fund Law Number 9/2005 promulgated on 3 August 2005.The intention of the law is that the Petroleum Fund shall contribute to the wise management of the petroleum resources for the benefit of both current and future generations. The Petroleum Fund is a tool that contributes to sound fiscal policy, where appropriate consideration and weight is given to the long-term interests of Timor-Lestes citizens.In the last quarter the Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste increased by nearly US$400 million to US$11.05441 billion dollars, indicates a report released on the official website of the Banco Central de Timor-Leste (BCTL).The BCTLs quarterly report on the Petroleum Fund shows that its capital for the period ending on 30 September 2012 was US$11,054.41 million, versus the capital of US$10,600.74 million posted on 30 June.Cash outflows amounted to US$390.32 million, of which US$389 million were transferred to the state budget, the document indicates.By late 2006, the Fund had reached US$1,011,763,807.By the end of 2007, the Fund was slightly over US$2 billion.

Sovereign wealth funds based on oil/gas* LMTI = Linaburg-Maduell Transparency. Source: SWF Institute.

Assets LMT* CountrySWF name($Billion)InceptionindexNorwayGovernment Pension Fund - Global715.9199010UAE - Abu DhabiAbu Dhabi Investment Authority62719765Saudi ArabiaSAMA Foreign Holdings532.8n/a4KuwaitKuwait Investment Authority34219536RussiaNational Welfare Fund175.520085QatarQatar Investment Authority11520055UAE DubaiInvestment Corporation od Dubai7020064UAE Abu DhabiInternational Petroleum Investment Company65.319849

LibyaLibyan Investment Authority6520061KazakhstanKazakhstan National Fund61.820008AlgeriaRevenue Regulation Fund56.720001UAE -Abu DhabiMubadala Development Company53.1200210US - AlaskaAlaska Permanent Fund45197610IranNational Development Fund of Iran4220115AzerbaijanState Oil Fund32.7199910BruneiBrunei Investment Agency3019831US- TexasTexas Permanent School Fund25.518549CanadaAlberta'sHeritage Fund16.419769Timor_lesteTimor-Leste Petroleum Fund11.820058

Mekanisme fiskalPenerimaan negara di APBN dari migas bakal turun. Supaya tidak drastik, ada roadmap untuk meningkatkan porsi alokasi ke Petroleum funds secara betahap. Mulai dari setidaknya 10 persen dari penerimaan miga total sekarang (sekitar Rp 17 triliun).Agar penerimaan negara tak sempat shortfall, pemerintah meningkatkan nisbah pajak (tax ratio) yang sebagiannya untuk mengompensasikan penurunan penerimaan migas. Dana dikelola di luar APBN tetapi dipertanggungjawabkan kepada DPR.

VSolutions

Renewable energy promotion policies by countrySource: KPMG.

Kunci suksesNational energy polies yang dilaksanakan secara konsisten dan konsekuen.Kebijakan adalah pilihan. Tak bisa semua disubsidi. Kalau mau subsidi renewable energy, subsidi fossil fuel dikurangi. Subsidi total untuk komoditi harus dikurangi, karena makin besar subsidi untuk orang (SJSN).

Alternatif pendanaanPembaruan undang-undang perpajakan/bea cukai dengan memperkenalkan earmarking taxation terbatas.Sementara waktu gunakan pendapatan dari bea keluar sawit untuk subsidi biofuel sawit. jangan bergantung pada Amerika Serikat. Kita saja yang gunakan.Kuncinya di pricing policy untuk energi.Sebagian penerimaan migas dipakai untuk pengembangan renewable energy

Terima KasihEmail: faisal.basri@gmail.com

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