renewable energies in the mena region: potential for ... · potential for sustainable energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region:Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision andExport to Europe
Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
IFEED
Project Partners
German Aerospace Center (Germany)National Energy Research Center (Jordan)University of Aden, (Yemen)University of Sana’a, (Yemen) University of Bahrain, (Bahrain)Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco)Intern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany)Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany)Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany)Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany)House of Water and Environment (Palestine)Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya)Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco)University of Bremen (Germany)New Energy Algeria (Algeria)New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt)Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany)Honorat SatoguinaMASDAR (Abu Dhabi)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies
ScandinaviaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeSouth-Eastern EuropeWestern AsiaNorth AfricaArabian Peninsula
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Parameters considered in the analyses
Annual electricity demandAnnual load curveAvailable fossile and renewable resourcesExisting power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetimeCost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario)Maximum production growth rates of RE industriesExisting grid infrastructure100% power availabilityPeaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacitySustainability criteriaOpportunities of financingPolicies and energy economic boundary conditions
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Gro
ss E
lect
ricity
Con
sum
ptio
n TW
h/a
TurkeySpainPortugalMaltaItalyGreeceTunisiaMoroccoLibyaEgyptAlgeriaYemenUAESyriaSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanLebanonKuwaitJordanIsraelIraqIranCyprusBahrain
Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency
Historical Data
First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation
Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation
Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries SwitzerlandNorwayIcelandBosnia-HerzegowinaSerbia & MontenegroRomaniaMacedoniaBulgariaTurkeySwedenCroatiaFinlandGreeceHungarySloweniaSlowac RepublicCzech RepublicPolandItalyIrelandUnited KingdomDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsLuxembourgBelgiumAustriaFrancePortugalSpain
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Gro
ss E
lect
ricity
Con
sum
ptio
nTW
h/y
Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctric
ity P
rodu
ctio
n in
TW
h/y
Deficit Old Plants
Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European countries analysed within TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Biomass (1)
Wind (50)
Geothermal (1)
Hydropower (50)
Solar (250)
A solar power plant of thesize of Lake Nasser equals the total MiddleEast oil production
Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA
In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km² /y)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany
WORLDEU-25 GER
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Planta Solar 10 MW, SevilleSEGS 350 MW, California
NovatecLorca
Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix
Solar ThermalPower Plants
Nevada Solar I, 64 MW
MAN/SPGAlmeria
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants
Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Sola
r Ele
ctric
ityC
ost[
ct/k
Wh]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Inst
alle
dC
apac
ity[G
W]
SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050
Elec
trici
ty in
TW
h/y
SolarGeothermalHydroWindBiomassWave/TideDesalinationMENAEurope
Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA
> 630000
?
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance
Solar Power Transfer by:
Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line
Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 %
Cost very high high low
Adaptation to Consumers (Transformer)
has to be transformed to AC first
directly transformable
has to be transformed to AC first
Over Sea Transport
by tankers or pipelines
not over 30 km standard solution
Visibility Impact very low high low
Materials and Emissions
moderate moderate low
Preferred Application
eventually fuel for transport
regional and local power
long distance power transfer
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy Link Using HVDC Power Transmission Technology
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection
3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor
35045
24531
13416
425
Investment CSPBillion € HVDC
50 x 503600 x 1.0
40 x 403600 x 0.7
30 x 303600 x 0.4
15 x 153100 x 0.1
Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC
70047023060Transfer TWh/y
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Capacity GW
2050204020302020Year
Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 *
* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year
Fres
hwat
er D
efic
it [b
illio
n m
³/y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
Expected Water Deficits by Country
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination
MED
Solar Field Storage
PowerPlant
Water Power
fuelsolarheat
heat
Combined Heat & Power
RO
Solar Field Storage
PowerPlant
Water Power
fuelsolarheat
Power Only
Solar Field Storage
MED
fuel
solarheat
Water Power
grid
Heat Only
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Cos
t of W
ater
[€/m
³]
CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix
Projected cost of water (CoW) from reverse osmosis plants using conventionally generated power or solar electricity
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas
Energy+Water+Income
=
Sustainable economic development in arid regions
(artist view created withGoogle Earth)
HVDC Link
AC Grid
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Pow
er D
eman
d an
d Su
pply
[TW
h/y]
Year
Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENANew Plants MENA Total Demand MENA Total Demand EU
Electricity and fresh water provision in MENA
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Within 15 years, a well balanced electricity mix may lead to less expensive electricity than business as usual. Domestic sources reduce the import of fuels.
Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA can provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power.
The most efficient and economic way to transfer electricity from MENA to Europe is via high voltage direct current transmission lines, adding about 1.5-2 cents/kWh to the local generating cost.
By 2050, 700 TWh/y solar electricity could be imported from 20 locations in MENA at a cost of 5 c/kWh, providing about 15 % of European electricitydemand.
To establish and maintain such a trans-national HVDC electricity grid, strong political support will be required.
Conclusions
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
for more information look at
www.dlr.de/tt/med-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/trans-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp