reliability analysis of power plants curley

ReliabilityAnalysisofPowerPlantUnitOutageProblems

G.MichaelCurleyPresident

GenerationConsultingServices,LLC

Copyright2013byGenerationConsultingServices,LLC.Allrightsreserved.

Agenda

Whatisourobjectiveandwhy? Whattoolsdowehaveavailable?

Reliableoutageinformation Measurements(statistics)

Howcanwereachtheobjectives? Unitlevelbenchmarking Componentlevelbenchmarking


WhatisOurObjectiveandWhy?


Definition Reliability isthecharacteristicsofanitemexpressedasaprobabilitythatitwillperformitsrequiredfunctionsunderspecifiedconditionsforaspecifiedperiodoftime.

Maintainability isthecharacteristicsofdesignandinstallationexpressedastheprobabilitythatanitemwillberetainedinorrestoredtoaspecifiedconditionwithinaspecifiedperiodoftimewhenmaintenanceisperformedinaccordancewithprescribedproceduresandresources.


Definition

Availability isthecharacteristicofanitemexpressedasaprobabilitythatitwillbeoperationalatarandomlyselectedfutureinstantintime.

Reliability Maintainability

Availability


GamePlan

Tosimplyfindwaysthateitheroutagefrequency,outageduration,orboth,canbereducedandkeptatalevelconsistentwithminimumgenerationcostsandloadmanagementobjectives.


WhatToolsDoWeHaveAvailable?


ReliabilityDatabases Severaldatabasestochoosefrom:

GeneratingAvailabilityDataSystem(GADS) NERC OperationalReliabilityAnalysisProgram(ORAP)StrategicPowerSystems,Inc.

KraftwerkInformationSSYstem(KISSY) VGBofEssen,Germany

PowerReactorInformationSystem(PRIS)InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA) ofAustria

CanadianElectricityAssociation(CEA) Ottawa,Canada


WhatisGADS? GeneratingAvailabilityDataSystem(GADS)

OffshootoftheEdisonElectricInstitutedatabaseintroducedin1960sbytheEEIPrimeMoversCommittee

GADSwasintroducedtotheindustryin1982. Databaseforcollectingandanalyzingpowerplant

equipmentfailures Benchmarking Settingrealisticgeneratingunitgoals Improvingunitoutputandreliability

Foundationfordeterminingthereliabilityofthebulkpowersystemasrelatedtogeneratingunits


WhyMandatoryGADS? WhenNERCbecametheElectricReliabilityOrganization

(ERO)undertheEnergyPolicyActof2005(Section215),itwasgiventhemandatetomonitorthereliabilityofthebulkpowersystem: Transmission Generatingfacilities Notdistributionsystems


WhyMandatoryGADS? Historically

Reliabilityassessmentreportsandmodeling Lossofloadexpectationstudiesandmodeling

NewChallenges Astheresourcemixchanges,NERCanditsstakeholderswillneedtounderstandhowthechangesinresourceperformancetranslatesintoPlanningReserveMargins.

UnderstandingtheperformanceofexistingandnewresourcetechnologiesisessentialtocomprehendingthereliabilityoftheprojectedbulkpowersysteminNorthAmerica.


GeneratingUnitsReportingtoGADS

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

5841 5952 6014 5650

70287445

*Projected2013Value


GADSUnitsbyUnitType

Fossil25%

Nuclear2%

GT/Jet18%

Diesel3%

Hydro/PS41%

CombinedCycle9%

Other2%

GADS2012Data


NewConstruction20042013

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Fossil

Nuclear

GT/Jet

Diesel

Hydro/PS

CombinedCycle

Other

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MWGeneratedGADS2012Data


Fossil50%

Nuclear5%

GT/Jet2%

Diesel0%

Hydro/PS12%

CombinedCycle29%

Other2%

WhatDataDoesGADSCollect? Designdata

Identifythevariousunittypes SeparateunitsintogroupsbyMWsize,fuels,age,etc.

Eventdata Insightsintoequipmentproblems Essentialforevaluatedunitdesignssuchaspressurizedversesbalanceddraftfurnaces

PerformanceData Performancedataprovidesinformation,inasummarizedformat,pertainingtooverallunitoperationduringaparticularmonthinagivenyear.


UnitState Active


DetailsofreportingatGCSGADSWorkshop.Seehandout.

PrimaryCauseofEvent GADScollectsdetailsregardingthesystem,major

component,orpieceofequipmentprimarilyresponsibleforcausingtheoutageorderatingevent.

Primarydetailsarerequired;secondarydetailsareoptional.

Important detailsofeventoutagecauseconsistsof: System/Componentcausecodes(causecodes) CauseCodeAmplificationCode(ampcodes) EventContributionCode VerbalDescription


BasisofGADSDatabase IEEE762camefromolderEdisonElectricInstitute(EEI)documentsdevelopedduringthe1970s.

IEEE762wasdevelopedandtestedin1982;revisedin1987,2006andreaffirmedfor10yearsin2010.


GeneralOverview Unweighted(timebased) equationsusetime

Weighted(energyorcapacitybased) equationsbasedonMWsizeoftheunits

1,000MW 100MW


IEEE762Indices Factors

DiscussionoftheMostCommonUsesIEEE762FactorsandWhyTheyAreImportanttothePowerIndustry


EquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)

ByDefinition: Thefractionofnetmaximumgenerationthatcouldbeprovidedafteralltypesofoutagesandderatings(includingseasonalderatings) aretakenintoaccount.

Measurespercentofmaximumgenerationavailable overtime

Notaffectedbyloadfollowing ThehighertheEAF,thebetter DeratesreduceEAFusingEquivalentDeratedHours


TheEintheEquationName

WhenyouseeanEinthestatisticsname,itstandsforEquivalentsuchasEquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)orEquivalentForcedOutageRate Demand(EFORd).

Thesestatisticscontainderatings aswellasfulloutages. DeratingsonlyappearinGADSfromeventrecords,not

performancerecords.Soitisimportanttoincludeallderatingsinyourreporting!


WhatareEquivalentDeratedHrs.? Thisisamethodof

convertingderatingsintofulloutages.

TheproductoftheDeratedHoursandthesizeofreduction,dividedbyNMC.

100MWderatefor4hoursisthesamelossas400MWoutagefor1hour.

100MWx4hours=400MWx1hour

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ScheduledOutageFactor(SOF) ByDefinition:

Thepercentoftimeduringaspecificperiodthataunitisoutofserviceduetoeitherplannedormaintenanceoutages.

Outagesarescheduled. PO WellinAdvance MO Beyondthenextweekend

Ameasureoftheunitsunavailabilityduetoplannedormaintenanceoutages.

ThelowertheSOF,thebetter.


NetCapacityFactor(NCF)

ByDefinition: Measurestheactualenergygenerated asafractionofthemaximumpossibleenergyitcouldhavegeneratedatmaximumoperatingcapacity.

Showshowmuch theunitwasusedovertheperiodoftime

Theenergyproducedmaybeoutsidetheoperatorscontrolduetodispatch.

ThehighertheNCF,themoretheunitwasusedtogeneratepower(movingtobaseload).


NetOutputFactor(NOF)

ByDefinition: Measurestheoutputofageneratingunitasafunctionofthenumberofhoursitwasinservice(synchronizedtothegrid).

Howhardwastheunitpushed Theenergyproducedmaybeoutsidetheoperatorscontrolduetodispatch.

ThehighertheNOF,thehighertheloadingoftheunitwhenonline.


ComparingNCFandNOF

NCF = 100% x (Net Actual Generation)[PH x (Net Maximum Capacity)]

NOF = 100% x (Net Actual Generation)[SH x (Net Maximum Capacity)]

NCF measures % of time at full load.NOF measures the loading of the unit when operated.


Whatcanyoulearnfromthischart?

EAF NCF NOF

Nuclear 87.19 88.36 98.96

Fossil,coal 83.33 63.62 81.15

Fossil,gas 84.17 12.53 35.98

Fossil,oil 83.83 8.12 39.81

Gasturbines 88.54 2.51 69.69

Hydro 84.61 40.67 67.43(Datafromthe20082012GADSBrochure)


IEEE762Equations Rates

DiscussionoftheMostCommonUsesIEEE762RatesandWhyTheyAreImportanttothePowerIndustry


ForcedOutageRate ByDefinition:

Thepercentofscheduledoperatingtimethataunitisoutofserviceduetounexpectedproblemsorfailures.

Measuresthereliabilityofaunitduringscheduledoperation

Sensitivetoservicetime (reserveshutdownsandscheduledoutagesinfluenceFORresults)

Bestusedtocomparesimilarloads: baseloadvs.baseload cyclingvs.cycling

ThelowertheFOR,thebetter.


ForcedOutageRateCalculation:

FOR = FOH FOH + SH + Syn Hrs. + Pmp Hrs.

Comparison: unit with high SH vs. low SH(SH = 6000 hrs. vs. 600 hrs.; FOH = 200 hrs.)

FOR = 200 = 3.23%200 + 6000

FOR = 200 = 25.00%200 + 600

x 100%


EquivalentForcedOutageRate

ByDefinition: ThepercentofscheduledoperatingtimethataunitisoutofserviceduetounexpectedproblemsorfailuresANDcannotreachfullcapabilityduetoforcedcomponentorequipmentfailures.

Theprobabilitythataunitwillnotmeetitsdemandedgenerationrequirements.

Goodmeasureofreliability ThelowertheEFOR,thebetter.



Calculation:EFOR = FOH + EFDH .

(FOH + SH + Syn Hrs. + Pmp Hrs. + EFDHRS)

where EFDH = (EFDHSH + EFDHRS)

EFDHSH is Equivalent Forced Derated Hours during Service Hours.

EFDHRS is Equivalent Forced Derated Hoursduring Reserve Shutdown Hours.



EFOR = FOH + EFDH .(FOH + SH + EFDHRS )

As an example:

FOH = 750, EFDH = 450, SH = 6482, EDFHRS=0, Syn Hrs. = 0, Pmp Hrs. = 0

EFOR = 750 + 450 .(750 + 6482 + 0 )

= 16.6%


EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)

Markovequationdevelopedinthe1970s

Usedbytheindustryformanyyears PJMInterconnection SimilartothatusedbytheCanadianElectricityAssociation BeingusebytheCEA,PJM,NewYorkISO,ISONewEngland,andCaliforniaISO



Interpretation: Theprobabilitythataunitwillnotmeetitsdemandperiods forgeneratingrequirements.

Bestmeasureofreliabilityforallloadingtypes(base,cycling,peaking,etc.)

Bestmeasureofreliabilityforallunittypes(fossil,nuclear,gasturbines,diesels,etc.)

Fordemandperiodmeasuresandnotforthefull24hourclock. ThelowertheEFORd,thebetter.



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EFORdEquation:

EFORd= [(FOHd) + (EFDHd)] x 100%[SH + (FOHd)]

Where: FOHd = f x FOHf = [(1/r)+(1/T)]

[(1/r)+(1/T)+(1/D)]r= FOH/(# of FOH occur.)T= RSH/(# of attempted Starts)D= SH/(# of actual starts)EFDHd = fp x EFDH

fp = SH/AH


ExampleofEFORdvs.EFOR

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Increasing RSH / Decreasing SH (All other numbers in calculation are contant.)

EFOR vs. EFORdGeneral Trend

EFOREFORd

EFOR, range from 6.2 to 130.0%

EFORd, range from 4.7 to 30.7%


ExampleofEFORdvs.EFOR

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Corresponding EFOR & EFORd Values

EFOR vs. EFORdGas Turbines

EFORd EFOR


Whatcanyoulearnfromthischart?

(Datafromthe20082012GADSBrochure)

FOR EFOR EFORd SH RSH

Nuclear 3.34 3.94 3.94 7,788.59 1.67

Fossil,coal 6.12 8.30 7.52 6,150.41 1,265.64

Fossil,gas 14.41 16.64 9.68 2,358.66 4,459.50

Fossil,oil 15.23 17.31 12.71 1,810.89 5,432.38

Gasturbines 63.09 62.79 10.65 208.89 7,693.79

Hydro 5.79 5.99 5.43 5,226.12 1,532.32


EAF+EFOR=100%?Given: PH = 8760, SH = 10, RSH = 8460. FOH = 290. No deratings.

EAF = AF = AHPH

EAF = 84708760

EAF = 97.7%

EFOR = FOR = FOH__ (SH+ FOH)

EFOR = 290____ (290 + 10)

EFOR = 97.7%

Factors and rates are not additive and not complementary!


OutsideManagementControl(OMC) Thereareanumberofoutagecausesthatmayprevent

theenergycomingfromapowergeneratingplantfromreachingthecustomer.Somecausesareduetotheplantoperationandequipmentwhileothersareoutsideplantmanagementcontrol(OMC).

GADSneedstotrackalloutages butwantstogivesomecreditforOMCevents.


WhatareOMCEvents? Gridconnectionorsubstationfailure Actsofnaturesuchasicestorms,tornados,winds,

lightning,etc. Actsofterrorsortransmissionoperating/repairerrors Lackoffuels

Waterfromriversorlakes,coalmines,gaslines,etc. BUTNOToperatorelectedtocontractforfuelswherethefuel(forexample,naturalgas)canbeinterrupted

Laborstrikes BUTNOTdirectplantmanagementgrievances


ComparingEAF,WEAF,XEAF,etc.EAF = (AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100%

PH

WEAF = NMC(AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100% NMC (PH)

XEAF = (AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100%PH

XWEAF = NMC(AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100% NMC (PH)


ComparingEAF,WEAF,XEAF,etc.

Fossil (All sizes), Coal Nuclear Gas Turbines

EAF 84.64% 86.15% 90.28%

WEAF 84.25% 86.64% 90.06%

XEAF 85.21% 86.50% 90.76%

XWEAF 84.74% 86.98% 90.56%


HowCanWeReachtheObjectives?


WhatIsBenchmarking? BusinessDictionary.comdefinesitas

Ameasurementofthequalityofanorganizationspolicies,products,programs,strategies,etc.,andtheircomparisonwithstandardmeasurements,orsimilarmeasurementsofitspeers.

Theobjectivesofbenchmarkingare:(1)todeterminewhatandwhereimprovementsarecalledfor;(2)toanalyzehowotherorganizationsachievetheirhighperformancelevels;and(3)tousethisinformationtoimproveperformance.


ModesofTransportation

Therearedifferentwaystotravel.Inbenchmarking,therearedifferentwaystodeterminepeergroupsandcompareyourgeneratingunits.


WhyBenchmark? Benchmarkingishelpingutilities

Setgoals Developincentives Identifyimprovementopportunities Quantifyandmanagerisks Createincreasedawarenessofthepotentialforandthevalueofincreasedplantperformance


BenchmarkingShouldbeSMART! Specific tothetypeandoperationoftheunit. Measurable toshowactualchanges(+/) Achievableand Reasonable Improvementsarepossible.Dontexpectresultsthatareoutsidereasonableexpectations.

Tested thatthemethodofbenchmarkinghasbeentestedtobeasound,proventechnology.


PeerSelectionCriteria

NERCGADSDatabase7000+units

LargePopulation


PeerSelectionCriteriaExact Match

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x xNumber of Exact Matches 0



Must Balance Criteria

Exact MatchesLarge Population


EasyPeerGroupSelection

BagofMarbles GolfBallsandBBPellets


EasyPeerGroupSelection Shouldnotcomparenuclearunitstogasturbines.

Shouldnotcompareunitsconstructed40yearsagotonewunitswithoneyearoperation.

Shouldnotcomparebaseloadedunitstothoseonlyusedoccasionally(peakers).


ChallengingPeerGroupSelection

BagofMarbles SameSize,DifferentColor


ChallengingPeerGroupSelection Arecoalfiredunitsreallydifferentthanoil orgasfiredunits?

Isthereastatisticalmethodtoshowthat199MWunitsaredifferentthan200MWunits?HowdoyoudeterminewhenoneMWsizeofunitsendsandasecondgroupbegins?

DoestheperformanceofmanufacturerAdiffersignificantlyfromthatofmanufacturerB?


BenchmarkingGoal Identifygeneratingunits(individually)thatcanbegroupedbasedonboth Unitdesign Operatingexperience

Question: Aretheselectedbenchmarkingcriteriadifferentenoughtobedifferent(golfballsandBBs)or

Aretheselectedbenchmarkingcriteriadifferentyet thesame(samesizemarbles)?


WhatistheBestBenchmarkingMetric?

Inthebenchmarkingdefinition,itstates Ameasurementofthequalityofanorganizationspolicies,products,programs,strategies,etc.,andtheircomparisonwithstandardmeasurements,orsimilarmeasurementsofitspeers.

Whatisthebestmeasureforcomparingwithpeers?


PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)

Measuresthepercentoftimetheunitiscapableoffullloadoperation.

Measureofoverallunitperformanceandhasbeenthecomparativemeasuringmetricforpowerplantsforyears.

Notinfluencedbydispatch Influencedbyoutagerepairs PO,MOandFO Nottotallyindependentofexternalinfluences


PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking NetCapacityFactor(NCF)

Measuresthepercentoftimetheunitwasatfullloadoperation.

Usedasameasureofoverallunitloadingcapabilityforcategoriessuchasbaseloaded,cycling,etc.

Nottotallyindependentofexternalinfluences Influencedbydispatch Influencedbyoutagerepairs


PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentForcedOutageRate(EFOR)

Measurestheprobabilityofexperiencingaforcedoutageorforcedderating.

Designedforunitsoperatedcontinuallywithlittleornoreserveshutdowns(baseload).

Independentofexternalinfluences Notinfluencedbydispatch Notinfluencedbymaintenanceorplannedoutagerepairs,notforcyclingorpeakingunits.


PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)

Measurestheprobabilityofexperiencingaforcedoutageorforcedderatingduringdemandperiods.

Designedforunitsinalloperatingstates(baseload,cycling,peaking,etc.).

Notinfluencedbydispatch Notinfluencedbymaintenanceorplannedoutagerepairs

Bestreliabilitymetric RECOMMENDED!


HowManyPeerUnits? Itishighlyrecommendedthataminimumof30generatingunitsshouldbeusedtocompareagainstyourunit(orgroupofunits.) Lessthan30unitscanresultinabias(highorlow). Adistributionofthebenchmarkingmetriccanidentifyanybias.


BenchmarkingOptions Unitbenchmarking

Reviewtheentiregeneratingunitasawholeandlookforwhatmakestheunitunique.

Componentbenchmarking Reviewthemajorcomponent/groupofcomponentsasawholeandlookforwhatmakesthecomponent(s)unique.


UnitBenchmarkingOption#1 Traditionalmethodwhereuserselectswhatoptionsareimportantandwhatoptionsarethesame. Samesteamturbinemanufacturer Samefuelsburned UsingGADSreportfordeterminingMWsizeofthegroup

100199MW 400599MW


UnitBenchmarkingOption#1 Advantages

Manypeopleuseit Quickdeterminationofwhattouseascriteriabasedongutfeeling

Disadvantages Nostatisticalbackupastoprovethatonecriteriaisbetterthananother.


UnitBenchmarkingOption#2 StatisticalAnalysisMethod



ASSUME

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.VintageFiring

Age

Size

Duty

Fuel

Draft

BoilerManufacturer

TurbineManufacturer

Criticality



Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.VintageFiring

Age

Size

Duty

Fuel

Draft

BoilerManufacturer

TurbineManufacturer

Criticality

ANALYSIS



SignificanceTestingSubcritical Supercritical Cyclic DutyBase load Duty

EFORd EFORd


PeerGroupsSelectCriteriaFossilUnits

All Fossil Units

MODE OF OPERATIONVINTAGE

SubSuper

CRITICALITY

Cycling

SomeFindings GolfballsandBBs

Nuclearvs.simplecyclegasturbines Subcriticalvs.supercriticalpressures Balancedvs.pressurizedboilers

Samesizemarbles Gasvs.oilfiredboilers SteamturbinemanufacturerAvs.B


DoesPeerSelectionMakeaDifference?

SUPERCRITICAL FOSSIL UNIT TECHNOLOGY

EARLY VINTAGE RECENT VINTAGE

EFORd (mean) 15.60% 9.68%EFORd (median) 12.17% 8.08%EFORd (best quartile) 8.14% 5.47%


DoesPeerSelectionMakeaDifference?

EFORd PLANTAOLD CRITERIA NEW CRITERIA % DIFFERENCE (Coal; 100-199MW)

mean 6.47% 5.53% -14%

median 4.78% 5.07% +6%

best quartile 2.65% 3.26% +23%


ReliabilityBenchmarkingResults42PeerUnits

Peerunitselectioncriteria Subcritical Reserveshutdownhourslessthan963hoursperyear

Naturalboilercirculation Primaryfuel=coal Singlereheat Netoutputfactorgreaterthan85.6%


PeerUnitEFORdDistribution


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EquivalentForcedOutageRate Demand(EFORd)

PeerUnitSOFDistribution


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PeerUnitEAFDistribution


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EquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)

GamePlan

Tosimplyfindwaysthateitheroutagefrequency,outageduration,orboth,canbereducedandkeptatalevelconsistentwithminimumgenerationcostsandloadmanagementobjectives.


MotherLodeShoppingListListofTop10CausesofForcedOutages


Rank CauseCode DescriptionOccurrenceper

UnitYearMWHperOccurrence

MWHperUnitYear

1 1050 SecondSuperheaterLeaks 1.01 19,697.83 19,987.16

2 1000 Waterwall(furnaceWall) 0.43 25,896.34 11,226.20

3 1040 FirstSuperheaterLeaks 0.28 26,940.82 7,443.75

4 1060 FirstReheaterLeaks 0.19 27,473.08 5,235.04

5 4520 Gen.StatorWindings;Bushings;AndTerminals 0.02 221,062.64 4,212.39

6 1080 EconomizerLeaks 0.17 24,105.14 4,133.95

7 3620 MainTransformer 0.07 54,428.70 3,889.31

8 3659 OtherDcPowerProblems 0.03 124,869.58 3,569.12

9 4470 DifferentialExpansion 0.04 92,785.69 3,536.10

10 1090 OtherBoilerTubeLeaks 0.10 34,137.96 3,252.52

DatafromNERCpcGARsoftware.

Conclusions

Benchmarkingishelpingutilitiesby Helpingsetreasonablegoals Identifyingimprovementopportunities Quantifyingandmanagingrisks Creatingincreasedawarenessofthepotentialandvalueofincreasedplantperformance

Properpeergroupselectionisessential!


Questions?


GenerationConsultingServices,LLCGADSDataReportingWorkshops

Nashville,TennesseeAugust1315,2013

Charlotte,NorthCarolinaOctober2223,2013

SoldOut!!!! RegisterNowLimitedSeating

Thankyou!G.MichaelCurley

PresidentGenerationConsultingServices,LLC

(801)[email protected]


reliability analysis of power plants curley

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