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Upper Hunter futures – final report

1

Roadmap for economic diversification

in the Upper Hunter

Department of Regional NSW

December 2020

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Contents

Glossary i

Executive summary ii

1 Introduction 12

1.1 Purpose and scope 12 1.2 Report structure 13 1.3 The Upper Hunter region 14 1.4 Our approach 15

Part 1: Economic, social and land use context 16

2 The Upper Hunter regional economy 17

2.1 Concentrated but changing industry base 17

Concentrated within local regions, more diverse across the region 18 Impact of recent trends 19

2.2 Self-contained employment and supply chains 20

Local workers are typically Hunter residents 20 Industrial clusters create hubs in regional supply chains 21

2.3 Strong regional enablers 23

Functional economic linkages across the region 23 Supported by research linkages and collaborations 24 Existing governance framework 25 State and national policy alignment 26

3 Local demographics and social trends 28

3.1 Trends in population 28

Current trends 28 Age profile 29 Population projections 30

3.2 Labour force tailored to current economy 31

Employment, unemployment and participation 31 Occupation, skills and education 33

3.3 Community vibrancy 34

Young people 35 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population 38 Lone parent families 42

3.4 A relatively advantaged region, with pockets of disadvantage 47

4 Land use planning 48

4.1 Current land use across the Upper Hunter 48

Agriculture and equine 48 Coal mining 50 Buffer lands 52 Energy 55 Water security 57

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4.2 Land use conflicts 58 4.3 Planning frameworks and documents 59

State and regional documents and strategies 59

4.4 Considerations for current and future land use 61

Part 2: Scenario analysis 62

5 Priority industries for the Upper Hunter 63

5.1 Identifying priority industries 63

Definition of priority 63 Methodological approach 63

5.2 What, why and when? 64

Coal mining 64 Agribusiness 66 Energy 69 Tourism 73

6 Developing a ‘roadmap’ for the future 74

6.1 A scenario-based approach 74 6.2 Limited change scenario 75 6.3 Transition scenario 76 6.4 Shock scenario 78 6.5 Monitoring economic trajectory 80

Part 3: Diversification roadmap 83

7 Action plan for inclusive growth 84

7.1 Theme 1: Foundations for the future 85

Action 1.1: Load test the existing governance framework 85 Action 1.2: Streamline and improve engagement and communication of

outcomes 86

7.2 Theme 2: Prepare for the unknown 86

Action 2.1. Prepare long-range climate and water outlooks for the region 86 Action 2.2: Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the

region 87 Action 2.3: Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region 88

7.3 Theme 3: Shape perceptions 88

Action 3.1: Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy 89 Action 3.2: Improve the quality of urban amenity 89

7.4 Theme 4: Improve skills and workforce outcomes 90

Action 4.1: Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training

opportunities for residents 90 Action 4.2: Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion 91 Action 4.3: Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education 92

7.5 Theme 5: Build vibrant communities 92

Action 5.1: Support housing affordability and diversity 93 Action 5.2: Strengthen social networks 93 Action 5.3: Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy 94 Action 5.4: Explore opportunities for improved health and social service

provision in the region 94

7.6 Theme 6: Improve connectivity 95

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Action 6.1: Investigate innovative local public transport solutions 96 Action 6.2: Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport

infrastructure gaps 97 Action 6.3: Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of

digital connectivity 97

7.7 Theme 7: Activate innovation and enterprise 98

Action 7.1: Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy 98 Action 7.2: Support social enterprise 99

7.8 Theme 8: Leverage existing endowments 100

Action 8.1: Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer

lands 101 Action 8.2: Explore potential use of existing electricity transmission network

infrastructure 102

8 Potential governance arrangements 103

8.1 Role of governance frameworks in community transition 103 8.2 Best practice governance principles 103 8.3 Positioning for the future 105

9 Communications plan 107

9.1 The purpose of communications 107 9.2 Steps for creating an effective communications plan 107 9.3 Indicative communications plan 109

– Stakeholder Engagement Plan 112

– Upper Hunter policies and programs 156

– State and regional policies and programs 165

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Charts

Chart 2.1 : Proportion of regional employment by industry over time, place of work, 2011

and 2019 17 Chart 2.2 : Proportion of regional GVA by industry over time, 2011 and 2019 18 Chart 3.1 : Population of the Upper Hunter region by LGA, 2018-19 28 Chart 3.2 : Regional population growth, 2009 to 2019 29 Chart 3.3 : Population projections (indexed) for the Upper Hunter region by growth scenario,

2021-2041 30 Chart 3.4 : Prime working-age (25 to 54 years) population projections (indexed) for Upper

Hunter region LGAs, 2021 to 2041 (trend scenario) 31 Chart 3.5 : Labour force participation rate, annually, 2011 to 2019 32 Chart 3.6 : Unemployment in the Upper Hunter, 2018-19 32 Chart 3.7 : Median employee income ($ nominal) by region, 2011 to 2017 33 Chart 3.8 : Educational attainment among the working-age population, 2016 33 Chart 3.9 : Generational inequality existing within the Upper Hunter region 35 Chart 3.10 : Skills and education level of young people across the Upper Hunter region 36 Chart 3.11 : Education Levels of Indigenous and Non-Indigenous people across the Upper

Hunter Region 39 Chart 3.12 : Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander unemployment rate, Upper Hunter region,

2016 39 Chart 3.13 : Median total personal weekly income of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

people and non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region and NSW, 2016 40 Chart 3.14 : Age distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in the Upper

Hunter region, 2016 42 Chart 3.15 : Poverty rates by family type in NSW, 2019 43 Chart 3.16 : Employment among lone parent families (female parent), Upper Hunter region 44 Chart 4.1 : Land uses by category in the Upper Hunter region (share of total land) 58 Chart 6.1 : Indicative (FTE) employment loss estimates based on mine closures at consent

expiry or extension, as at June 2020 77

Tables

Table i : Themed opportunities for action by key domains v Table 3.1 : IRSD Scores, 2011 and 2016 47 Table 4.1 : Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region by category and area 49 Table 4.2 : Estimated buffer land held by Upper Hunter mining companies, 2018 52 Table 4.3 : Consents of currently operating mines 53 Table 6.1 : Leading and lagging indicators to monitor the Upper Hunter region’s economic

trajectory 80 Table B.1: Upper Hunter Policies and Programs 156 Table C.1: State and regional policies and programs 165 Table C.2: State and regional documents and strategies 171

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Figures

: Map of the Upper Hunter region 14 : Overview of approach to developing the Upper Hunter regional roadmap 15 : Industry share of employment by LGA in the Upper Hunter, 2019 18 : Daily live-work commuter flows between the Upper and Greater Hunter regions 21 : Economic interlinkages in the Upper Hunter region 22 : Regional infrastructure supporting activity in the Upper Hunter 24 : Network of groups supporting Hunter Regional local government authorities 25 : Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region 48 : Mining sector land use, Upper Hunter 50 : Energy sector land use, Upper Hunter 55 : AGL pumped hydro diagram 56 : Map of areas in NSW coal regions available and excluded from future coal

exploration and mining, June 2020 60 : Upper Hunter Prosperity Map 64 : Limited change scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 75 : Transition scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 78 : Shock scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 79 : Action Plan Themes 84

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Acknowledgements

Deloitte Australia would like to acknowledge the generous time, materials and engagement of the

numerous organisations consulted throughout this project including:

• AGL

• AI Group

• Arrowfield Stud

• Committee for the Hunter

• Compass Housing

• Department of Regional NSW

• DPIE Water

• Dungog Shire Council

• Glencore

• Hunter Business Chamber

• Hunter Joint Organisation

• Hunter Region Employment Facilitator

• Hunter Renewal

• Hunter TAFE

• Hunter Valley Aboriginal Corporation

• HunterNet

• Member for the Upper Hunter

• Muswellbrook Shire Council

• Newcastle Institute for Energy and Resources (NIER)

• NSW Minerals Council

• NSW Police (Singleton Police Station)

• RDA Hunter

• Singleton Council

• Singleton Family Support

• Training Services NSW

• University of Newcastle

• Upper Hunter Shire Council

• Wanaruah Local Aboriginal Land Council

• Wonnarua Nation

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Commercial-in-confidence


i

Glossary

Acronym Full name

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

CAVs Connected and Automated Vehicles

CiT Communities in Transition

Cth Commonwealth

DAE Deloitte Access Economics

DER Distributed Energy Resources

DPIE Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

DRNSW Department of Regional NSW

EIS Environmental Impact Statement

FTE Full-time Equivalent

GHRWS Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy

GRP Gross Regional Product

GSP Gross State Product

GVA Gross Value Added

GW Gigawatts

ha hectare

HVERC Hunter Valley Equine Research Centre

ISRD Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage

LEP Local Environmental Plan

LGA Local Government Areas

MDT Multi-purpose Deepwater Terminal

METS Mining Equipment, Technology and Services

Mtpa Million tonnes per annum

MW Megawatts

NAPLAN National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy

NEM National Energy Market

NSW New South Wales

PV Photovoltaics

RCP Regional Connectivity Program

RDA Regional Development Australia

RDC Regional Digital Connectivity

RLE Regional Leadership Excellence

STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics

VRE Variable Renewable Energy

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Executive summary

The Upper Hunter lies to the north-west of Newcastle and comprises the four Local Government

Areas (LGAs) of Dungog, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter Shire. The region’s

economy is focussed on coal mining, energy generation and utilities, and supported by

agribusiness as well as a range of population-serving industries such as health care, education and

retail trade.

However, the reliance on resources and energy generation, which is a strength of the Upper

Hunter region, delivering high paid jobs and high-value economic activity, also poses the greatest

challenge to the region’s future prosperity. This challenge includes the planned closure of the

Liddell (2023) and Bayswater (2035) power stations. Even more significant, however, is the

potential withdrawal of mining from the region as demand for thermal coal and other fossil fuels

for energy generation declines in the face of global and domestic climate change initiatives.

Together, these mining and energy concerns directly provide some 13,500 jobs, or 35 per cent of

the approximately 40,000 jobs in the region, supporting many residents, but also workers living in

regions across the lower Hunter and Newcastle.

Adapting, and adapting quickly, to a new future will both minimise the disruptive effects of

economic transition and ensure the future prosperity of the region’s next generations. While

history shows that transition can be challenging in the short term, it also demonstrates that longer

term benefits are to be gained. The current COVID-19 pandemic and recession is also illustrative

of the potential for positive gains, including improved productivity and workforce flexibility, from

the current crisis.

Understanding potential future pathways for the region, together with actionable planning and

preparation that can support optimised outcomes, is critical to maximising the gains from

transition. However, these pathways need to be built on a solid understanding of both current and

future strengths.

Against this background, the Department of Regional New South Wales (DRNSW) engaged Deloitte

Australia to:

• consider the current economic, land use and social landscape

• provide a robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future

• develop a set of actions that guide a transition towards achieving economic diversification

and resilience.

Current economic, planning and social landscape This report provides a detailed analysis of the economic, social and land use characteristics of the

Upper Hunter, bringing together a range of data sources to confirm and update our understanding

of the region. This has been key to understanding which sectors offer the greatest prospects for

economic diversification in the future, as well as potential economic, social and environmental

barriers.

The data presented in this report is expansive, but key points are summarised here.

In each of the four Upper Hunter LGAs, the employment base has become dependent on a few key

industry sectors, with the top five industries accounting for between 56 per cent and 65 per cent of

total regional employment. Central industries act as hubs within the regional supply chain, driving

activity and employment across downstream industries. Participation in the workforce is high and

unemployment low, relative to New South Wales as a whole.

The population of the Upper Hunter region was approximately 63,400 people in 2018-19,

representing 0.8 per cent of the total population across New South Wales and, like many regional

areas across Australia, has remained relatively stable over the past decade.

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However, there are a number of cohorts within the community that are disproportionately

susceptible to vulnerabilities, and face greater barriers when participating in the broader economy,

including young people, Indigenous Australians, the long-term unemployed, welfare recipients,

those with disability and lone parent (especially female) families.

Residents in the Upper Hunter typically have a lower level of educational attainment than the

average for New South Wales as a whole, but a larger than average share (36 per cent) of the

workforce holds a diploma or certificate; reflecting the required trade qualifications of the main

employment opportunities in the region.

Land use in the Upper Hunter region is dominated by agriculture, followed by conservation

initiatives, National Parks and coal mining – the land use of the latter being disproportionately

small compared to its contribution to Gross Regional Product (GRP). The co-existence of coal

mining with agriculture and other emerging industries such as eco-tourism is, and has historically

been, difficult to manage as each sector competes for scarce natural resources – water in

particular.

Drawing on an understanding of the Upper Hunter’s economic, social and land use landscape and

resulting competitive advantages has helped to identify current and potential industries that can

support diversification and a successful regional transition.

The industries that have the greatest potential in the region under a transition scenario, as

described below, are as follows:

Plausible scenarios for the future The economic future of the Upper Hunter is highly uncertain and will be determined by a number

of factors, including:

• the extent to which it can evolve and adapt, responding to global and domestic market

conditions, economic policies and geopolitical developments

• how it manages competition for land, water and environmental resources and associated

trade-offs

• how it supports industry with economic and social infrastructure

• how it supports and promotes active participation of residents in the community and

employment to achieve inclusive growth.

The region could follow a number of different pathways based on these factors. A scenario-based

approach to understanding these potential pathways is a highly effective framework when

considering this uncertainty.

To understand potential pathways and responses, three hypothetical but plausible scenarios were

developed to reflect status quo, transition and shock, as follows.

Limited change scenario – the current economic settings and industrial composition of the

region remain largely unchanged, delaying diversification and a transition away from coal mining

for the next 20 to 30 years.

Highly prospective

At risk

Modest potential

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Transition scenario – the current economic and industrial composition of the region gradually

begins to shift and diversify, as global and domestic trends favour a ‘wind down’ of coal mining

and resources adapt to support diversification.

Shock scenario – the economic and industrial composition of the region experiences a sudden

and disruptive shift, whereby there is a sharp and permanent contraction in the coal mining sector,

with insufficient adaptation and support such that transition to a diversified economy does not

transpire.

These scenarios provide a lens for the roadmap and the formulation of a potential set of actions to

help policymakers maximise the opportunity to achieve a best-case scenario.

Action plan for inclusive growth Drawing on data analysis, desktop research and stakeholder consultations, this report sets out an

action plan for inclusive growth in the Upper Hunter. Eight key themes have been identified as

areas that need to be addressed to optimise outcomes for all, with some variation in timing of

actions between scenarios. Under each theme, key actions are recommended to address gaps

identified. Some of these themes overlap; for example, addressing transport has the potential to

impact access to education, which in turn may address skills shortages as well as social

disadvantage. Themes and recommended actions are summarised below in Table i.

Consideration has also been given in this report to the detail of a potential governance structure,

drawing on case studies including for the Latrobe Valley in Victoria. A communications plan –

always critical to effecting change across communities – has also been developed for this report.

In summary, regional diversification in the Upper Hunter remains prospective, despite

risks and challenges. But success will be a factor of the ability of the region to monitor

changing conditions and to address gaps identified in this report through timely actions.

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Table i: Themed opportunities for action by key domains

Themes Actions Priority timing

by scenario

Key domains Key stakeholders

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Theme 1

Foundations for the future

The following actions are

recommended to ensure the

existing governance structure

lays the foundations for

supporting the region through an

economic transition. There is scope to improve, test and refine

the existing framework in the

Upper Hunter to better prepare

the region for future transition in

terms of streamlining for

efficient and timely decision-making so that the governance

can prepare and respond quickly

as economic change accelerates.

1.1 Load test the existing governance framework

• Test the preparedness and robustness of the existing governance structure and arrangements.

• Undertake a ‘load’ test of the capacity of the existing structure, simulating the ability of structure to handle an increasing volume of demands of the sort that could be expected during an accelerated

economic transition.

o draw on the recent experiences from the Latrobe Valley to design a simulation.

• Measure success in terms of:

o coordination and timeliness of its decision-making

o engagement with external stakeholders at various levels (communities, businesses,

individuals).

1.2 Streamline and improve engagement and communication of outcomes

• Building on Action 1.1 (above), align the existing governance structure with ‘best practice’ principles.

• Streamline the existing structure in terms of roles and responsibilities, decision-making and

accountability, and timeliness.

• Ensure clarity about the governance structure and arrangements among internal stakeholders.

• Improve perceptions of governance arrangements and outcomes among external stakeholders through greater transparency and two-way engagement.

Leading stakeholder indicator. Priority urgency indicators: 1-2 years 3-5 years next 10-years

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Theme 2

Prepare for the unknown

The major industries driving

growth in the Upper Hunter,

mining and agriculture, rely

heavily on the availability of

natural resources. The changing climate and availability of water

resources are, therefore, key

parameters that will shape the

future outlook for these

industries. While the Greater

Hunter Regional Water Strategy provides extensive research

using the historical climatic

record of the region, there is a

limited understanding about how

the region's climate is expected

to change over the next 50-years and how this will impact

the availability of water.

2.1 Prepare long-range climate and water outlook for the region

• Develop a detailed understanding of long-range climate and water outlooks specific to the region to better inform:

o future economic development, industry planning, and branding and investment attraction

strategies

o land use and water planning and management

o industry planning

o infrastructure investment decisions.

2.2 Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the region

• Building on Action 2.1 (above), develop a detailed understanding of the long-range demand outlook

for water resources in the region, and the ability of the future supply to meet these demands.

• Balance the considerations of:

o changing environmental demands

o changing population demands (across the entire catchment)

o changing industry demands.

• Help to identify and develop future investment in the most effective water infrastructure and management solutions.

2.3 Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region

• Develop a detailed understanding of the current and future demand drivers for Upper Hunter coal in

the global market.

• Improve the understanding of indicators that distinguish cyclical and structural changes in the global

coal market.

• Establish a framework for monitoring changes in both local supply and global demand for thermal

coal to be updated on a semi-regular basis.


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Theme 3

Shape perceptions

The perception of place that

locals, businesses and potential

investors may have can

influence decisions to remain in

the region and attract new businesses and investment. As

the region moves to redefine its

economic landscape, the way in

which the community defines

itself to attract social and

financial capital will also need to change.

3.1 Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy

• Building on the actions identified in Theme 1, develop a coherent and unified image for the region, with the aim of attracting:

o new, younger residents

o tourists, both domestic and international

o domestic and foreign investors in priority industry sectors.

• Develop a single unified branding, marketing and promotion strategy for the entire region clearly

identifying and articulating its value proposition:

o ‘what’ the region is about

o ‘why’ it is attractive

o ‘who’ is the target audience.

3.2 Improve the quality of urban amenity

• In addition to Action 3.1, the Upper Hunter regional authorities should consider further investments

to improve the quality of urban amenity across the region.

• At a high-level, improvements include (some of which are already being considered):

o developing a night-time economy

o developing arts and cultural hubs and facilities

o investments in social infrastructure and the provision of community services

o investments in community and recreation facilities.

• The quality of urban amenity should align with the ‘brand’ messaging (Action 3.1) and be consistent

throughout the region.


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Theme 4

Improve skills and workforce

outcomes

The skills and education of

residents are mostly matched to

the current industry profile of

the region. As this profile shifts and changes, retraining and

reskilling the population will

become increasingly important.

Additionally, for certain cohorts,

access to employment

opportunities can be unlocked by improving education and skills,

and access to transport and

childcare services.

4.1 Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training opportunities for residents

• Develop analysis of current workforce skills profile.

• Determine how current skills can be transferred between sectors and industries.

• Develop a skills map to assess projected demand with the scenarios and industry age structure for

specific sectors.

4.2 Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion

• Establish mentorships and other programs to educate and provide students with training pathways (see Action 4.3).

• Develop a strategy to support and expand upon tailored and culturally appropriate mentorship

programs in the region.

4.3 Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education

• Establish a dedicated skills and training working group. Key activities and goals of the group should include the:

o improvement of vocational and higher education attainment in the region

o development of the skills map proposed in Action 4.1.


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Theme 5

Build vibrant communities

In order to build vibrant

communities, social and

environmental barriers can be

addressed through the provision

of affordable, stable housing, access to health and mental

health services, strong social

capital opportunities, and social

services.

5.1 Support housing affordability and diversity

• Contribute to the NSW Housing Strategy focussing on diversity, supply, affordability and resilience of housing with representation from:

o Aboriginal communities

o local Councils

o social housing and other service providers.

5.2 Strengthen social networks

• Establish a community hub program to strengthen social networks and community cohesion.

• Key stakeholders including Aboriginal communities and service providers should form part of the

community hub panel.

5.3 Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy

• Support collaboration between service providers to build the care economy.

• Support partnerships with educational providers within early childcare, disability services and aged

care.

5.4 Explore opportunities for improved health and social service provision in the region

• Develop a detailed health, mental health and social services strategy to better inform:

o gaps in current services

o building the care economy

o feasibility of community hub

o mobile and telehealth services

o peer-led health promotion and community education services.

• The strategy should ensure that any models of service:

o build trust, reach and awareness in the community

o support service providers in the region

o provide infrastructure to deliver new models.


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Theme 6

Improve connectivity

Physical and digital

infrastructure is critical to

support the needs of industry

today and tomorrow. Currently,

as with many regions in Australia, digital connectivity is

poor and increased investment

in road access could improve

physical connectivity. However,

these investments require

significant capital investment and need to be assessed in a

cost benefit framework.

6.1 Investigate innovative local public transport solutions

• A detailed feasibility should be undertaken to investigate innovative local public transport solutions:

o car sharing options should be examined to address transport barriers in the region

o on-demand services and connected and automated vehicles trials are options for innovative

local transport solutions.

• This action should be undertaken in collaboration with Local Councils and Transport for NSW.

6.2 Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport infrastructure gaps

• Prepare a scoping study to specifically identify the existing inter-regional road and transport

infrastructure gaps.

• Develop a roadmap of emerging needs and unmet demands of industry regarding connectivity with

major towns and cities.

6.3 Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of digital connectivity

• Having digital infrastructure that can support the growing (and future) needs of industry is an important factor in attracting and retaining investment.

• Digital solutions in the Upper Hunter include:

o working with industry to develop an understanding of how major industries in the region use

digital infrastructure in their operations and to what standard the existing infrastructure

supports these activities

o develop a process to identify the digital infrastructure needs of the Upper Hunter

o develop a business case to consider the appropriate options for a further detailed assessment

taking account of existing strategies (e.g. Regional Digital Connectivity program).


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Theme 7

Activate innovation and

enterprise

In order to support the

diversification of the region and

the development of new and

emerging industries and service industries (including tourism and

hospitality), technological

innovation and entrepreneurship

should be fostered and

encouraged. Within the Upper

Hunter and other regional areas in Australia, the challenges of

unemployment, transitioning

industries and ‘brain drain’ of

talent to cities exemplify the

need for innovative economic

development solutions.

7.1. Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy

• Develop a detailed innovative ecosystem strategy to inform the formation of innovation hubs, mentorship and grant opportunities. The strategy should explore:

o the cultivation of start-ups, new technologies and innovation throughout the region

o potential grant and mentoring programs

o options to utilise STEM initiatives through the provision of high-quality facilities that are

accessible to all local students

o the consultation of a youth advisory group to ensure hubs are youth friendly and encourage

innovation.

7.2 Support social enterprise

• As detailed in Action 7.1 the strategy should enable an environment that supports community

ownership over outcomes in the region through social enterprises.

• Supporting the formation of social enterprises throughout the region is key to this action.

Theme 8

Leverage existing

endowments

The Upper Hunter currently

has several key infrastructure assets that help to facilitate the

region’s economic activity,

specifically in the mining, energy

and agriculture sectors. As the

mix of current uses change over

time, it is essential that where possible that land is repurposed

or reutilised for other uses to

support opportunities for growth

and diversification in the region

going forward.

8.1 Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer lands

• A detailed investigation of options for alternative land use within existing buffer zones should be

undertaken.

o the investigation should identify the potential for more productive agribusiness purposes,

industrial and commercial uses

o the investigation should involve key landholders including farmers, miners and state and

Commonwealth regulatory bodies

o this process should seek to determine the willingness of landholders for rezoning and

development and consider current safety and environmental regulatory settings

o implications for increased land use on demand for water resources and the impact on local

residents and farming community should be considered

o this process could also test the market to determine the level of demand for these lands from

prospective private-sector investors or developers.

8.2. Explore potential uses of existing electricity transmission network infrastructure

• A detailed technical study should be undertaken to analyse the implications associated with connecting new generation or storage to the current transmission network.

• The study should determine potential capacity constraints on the network and if network upgrades

are required to facilitate increased load on the network.

• The study is essential to determine the investment opportunities in the region’s energy sector.

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1 Introduction

The Upper Hunter is a significant contributor to the New South Wales economy – worth some $9.6

billion (or 1.6 per cent) to gross state product (GSP). However, many of the factors that contribute

to the region being such an economic force are the same factors that pose the greatest challenges

to the region’s future prosperity. These challenges include the planned closure of the Liddell and

Bayswater power stations in 2023 and 2035, respectively, and the potential withdrawal of coal

mining from the region as thermal coal and other fossil fuels for energy generation are phased out

globally. Just as technology and global economies have continued to advance and evolve, so too

must the Upper Hunter. Adapting, and adapting quickly, to a new future will both minimise the

disruptive effects of economic transition and ensure the future prosperity of the region’s next

generations. Identifying the region’s future strengths is an important first step in this transition.

However, understanding potential future pathways, together with actionable planning and

preparation that can support optimised outcomes, is also essential.

A note on COVID-19

Since it first emerged in December 2019, COVID-19 has inflicted a multi-dimensional health, social

and economic crisis on the world, deeper and more complex than any recently observed. This crisis

will likely cause an acceleration of trends that in many ways, may significantly increase

productivity; yet in the short and medium run, this process will be enormously disruptive and will

exacerbate some of the worst problems in our society.

Regions such as the Upper Hunter have not escaped the social and economic impacts that have

accompanied the crisis, dealing with temporary and structural impacts simultaneously. Structural

matters that regions had been navigating pre-COVID-19 have been accelerated, alongside new

challenges as a result of the pandemic. In part, these changes are likely to persist beyond the

virus – with both positive and negative consequences.

Today, the shift towards a digital world has been intensified and accelerated by COVID-19. This

shift will displace many low productivity workers once again. Yet new jobs will also emerge as new

technologies create opportunities no one has yet anticipated. What can be reasonably anticipated,

is that the jobs of the future will require skills that many of today’s displaced workers lack. Unless

the skills imbalance is addressed, it is possible that a generation of workers and their families will

suffer hardship even as technologies ultimately lead to massive gains in living standards.

1.1 Purpose and scope There is a growing urgency among government, industry and community stakeholders to diversify

the economic composition and depth of the Upper Hunter economy, to mitigate against expected

future economic and social disruption. Diversified growth is understood to be contingent on both

current conditions and future investments in, for example, economic and social infrastructure and

relevant skills development, together with specific industry-based policies and a responsive

planning and land use regime.

Within this context, the Department of Regional New South Wales (DRNSW) engaged Deloitte

Australia to:

• consider the current economic, planning and social landscape

• provide a robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future

• develop a set of actions that guide a transition towards achieving economic diversification

and resilience.

The analysis was undertaken through the following lenses:

• economic analysis

• land use planning

• social planning

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• governance

• policy alignment

• stakeholder engagement

• risk analysis

• transition strategy.

This report and its findings will inform the Department’s planning and preparations going forward,

and form an input into decision-making and other projects currently underway, including the

review of the Hunter Regional Plan currently being undertaken by the Department of Planning,

Industry and Environment (DPIE) (due 2021). The analysis undertaken by Deloitte is expected to

inform engagement and further discussion with Upper Hunter stakeholders as part of the DPIE

review and update of the roadmap for the future of the area within the forthcoming Plan. Most

importantly, this report provides DRNSW with evidenced-based recommendations to promote

economic and jobs growth within the region, while also maintaining a focus on social inclusion.

This report also sits alongside a broader suite of work occurring across the New South Wales

Government (such as the Net Zero Plan 2020-2030, NSW 2040 Economic Blueprint and the

Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW), which focus on diversification and

resilience in the face of economic disruption from a range of sources, leading to changing industry

dynamics. It is intended that the findings from this report will inform the development and

implementation of transition strategies in the Upper Hunter region in the future.

1.2 Report structure This report is structured in three parts: the first provides context and an overview of the Upper

Hunter region’s economic structure; the second presents detailed analysis of priority industries for

the Upper Hunter; and the third undertakes forward-looking analysis for the region.

PART 1 l Economic, social

and land use context

PART 2 l Scenario analysis PART 3 l Diversification

roadmap

• The Upper Hunter regional

economy

• Local demographics and

social trends

• Land use planning

• Priority industries for the

Upper Hunter

• Developing a ‘roadmap’ for

the future

• Action plan for inclusive

growth

• Potential governance

arrangements

• Communications plan

A key feature of this report is its consideration of future economic and social outcomes for the

region. Rather than forecast and plan for a single ‘most likely’ future, this report takes a scenario-

based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’ and proposed set of actions based on three

diverging economic futures for the region. The selected scenarios attempt to capture the range of

potential outcomes – taking in the best case and worst case potential futures – identifying the

factors and growth drivers that will likely determine these futures and the implications for the

Upper Hunter’s current key industry sectors.

• Limited change – the current economic settings and industrial composition of the region

remain largely unchanged, delaying diversification and a transition away from coal mining for

the next 20 to 30 years.

• Transition scenario – the current economic and industrial composition of the region gradually

begins to shift and diversify, as global and domestic trends favour a ‘wind down’ of coal mining

and resources adapt to support diversification.

• Shock scenario – the economic and industrial composition of the region experiences a sudden

and disruptive shift, whereby there is a sharp and permanent contraction in the coal mining

sector, with insufficient adaptation and support such that transition to a diversified economy

does not transpire.

These scenarios provide a lens for the roadmap and the formulation of a potential set of actions to

position the Upper Hunter region to respond to any of these possible futures.

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1.3 The Upper Hunter region The Hunter Region encompasses ten Local Government Areas (LGAs) and the nation’s seventh

largest city, Newcastle. It is also the largest regional economy, accounting for around eight per

cent of the state’s economic activity.

The Upper Hunter, which lies to the north-west of Newcastle, comprises four LGAs, including:

• Dungog

• Singleton

• Muswellbrook

• Upper Hunter Shire.

The region is a major supplier of power, coal mining, tourism and agriculture to domestic and

international markets. Like many regions across Australia, the population living within the region

grew only slightly in 2019, and the labour force has not experienced growth since 2013.

Indeed, the region has experienced below average economic growth for a number of years due to

a combination of challenging factors, including prolonged drought and limited mining development.

Growth in the number of businesses in 2018 was nearly half that of the rest of state average, at

2.1 per cent compared to 3.8 per cent.1 Taken together, the impacts of these trends on the

community have contributed to increased socio-economic disadvantage in the Upper Hunter region

compared to the rest of the state.

: Map of the Upper Hunter region

Source: Deloitte

1 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 20 February 2020, Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, June 2015 to June 2019, cat. no. 8165.0, <https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/8165.0Main+Features2June%202015%20to%20June%202019?OpenDocument>.

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1.4 Our approach This section outlines the approach taken by Deloitte to building an economic profile for the Upper

Hunter. This profile is then used to develop strategic recommendations to promote economic

growth and diversification in the region, and ultimately, sustainable jobs growth and greater social

inclusion. Figure 1.2 summarises the approach taken to developing an evidence base and

formulating recommendations for the region.

: Overview of approach to developing the Upper Hunter regional roadmap

STAGE 1 This stage involved developing a detailed and robust understanding of the

current economic, social and land use context of the Upper Hunter;

including the identification of key barriers and impediments to the

economic transition of the region, and opportunities for the region’s future

economic prosperity. This stage was informed by:

• Stakeholder consultation – with different councils, industry, social

services and State Government to provide on-the-ground intelligence

about roadblocks and opportunities, as well as to test that

understandings from the data and qualitative research align with local

understandings.

• Desktop research – analysing the large body of existing information and

research.

STAGE 2aStage 2a drew upon empirical evidence to identify regional industries

which have clear and demonstrable local advantages that align with global

demand opportunities to deliver sustainable and ongoing economic growth

and prosperity for the Upper Hunter.

This was informed by Deloitte’s Prosperity Mapping model, which built a

framework to assess the Upper Hunter region’s relative advantages and

industry opportunities, through focussing on three dimensions:

1. What does the world want?

2. What is the Upper Hunter good at?

3. What is the current sector size?

STAGE 2bStage 2b used a scenario-based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’

and proposed set of actions for the region. The aim of this approach is to

broadly identify a set of possible futures from across the spectrum of

possible futures and provide an indicative understanding of what these

futures might look like.

This includes identifying the factors and growth drivers that will likely

determine these futures, and the potential implications for the Upper

Hunter’s current key industry sectors.

STAGE 3Stage 3 brings together the findings of Stages 1 and 2 to outline a

comprehensive suite of actions that can guide the Upper Hunter regional

economy to successfully transition and recognise its full potential.

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Part 1: Economic,

social and land use

context

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2 The Upper Hunter regional

economy

The Upper Hunter region’s economy is characterised by a concentrated industry base that, despite

strategies to assist with diversification, has continued to be dominated by coal mining activities.

The needs of key industries such as mining and to a lesser extent agriculture have strongly

influenced the nature of the economy’s development, and may continue to do so as the region

diversifies.

The Upper Hunter is characterised by self-contained employment and supply chains that facilitate

functional economic interlinkages throughout the region. This is further supported and reinforced

by strong regional enablers such as highly developed regional infrastructure that allows for the

transfer of goods and services in and out of the region.

2.1 Concentrated but changing industry base The Upper Hunter economy has become more concentrated around coal mining in recent years,

despite strategies identifying the need for diversification and increasing emerging opportunities in

agriculture, tourism and power. A lack of economic diversification presents several challenges as

well as potential risks for the region.

Mining accounted for 32 per cent of total regional employment and 57 per cent of gross value

added (GVA) in 2019. Agriculture, in contrast, is the second largest sector by employment,

accounting for 7 per cent of regional employment and 4 per cent of regional GVA. Agriculture’s

share of employment and GVA has fallen since 2011. While there was a modest increase in the

number of people working in agriculture, GVA fell due to reduced output as a result of recent

drought conditions. Employment across utilities increased, with a further 300 jobs added in the

region since 2011.

The concentration of the region’s economy means it is particularly vulnerable to changes in global

economic conditions, consumer demand, and domestic policy.

Chart 2.1: Proportion of regional employment by industry over time, place of work, 2011 and 2019

Source: Deloitte, ABS

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Chart 2.2: Proportion of regional GVA by industry over time, 2011 and 2019


Concentrated within local regions, more diverse across the region

In each of the four Upper Hunter local government areas, the employment base has become

dependent on a few key industry sectors, exposing the region to significant employment, economic

and social downside risks if these industries were to contract or withdraw from the region. For the

entire Upper Hunter region, mining represents one third (32 per cent) of employment by industry;

with agriculture, forestry and fishing, health care and social assistance, retail trade and

construction ranking as the next highest employing industries across the region.

: Industry share of employment by LGA in the Upper Hunter, 2019


Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

22%

Health Care and Social

Assistance11%

Retail Trade9%

Manufacturing9%

Education and

Training8%

Other41%

Mining43%

Construction6%

Public Administration and Safety6%

Retail Trade5%

Manufacturing5%

Other35%

Mining35%

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste

Services8%

Health Care and Social Assistance7%

Retail Trade6%

Construction5%

Other39%

Agriculture, Forestry and

Fishing17%

Education and Training

12%

Construction10%

Retail Trade9%

Health Care and Social Assistance 8%

Other44%

Upper Hunter Shire

Total jobs:5,719

Muswellbrook

Total jobs:11,632

Dungog

Total jobs:2,467

Singleton

Total jobs:19,141

Population: 14,180

Population: 16,377

Population: 23,461

Population:9,423

Total GRP $9.6 billion (1.6% of GSP)

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Upper Hunter economies are highly concentrated relative to the rest of the state. Across New

South Wales, the largest industry by employment is health care and social assistance, at 13 per

cent, while the top five industries account for 50 per cent of all employment (noting that there are

19 industries within the standard industry structure).

By comparison, in Singleton, mining accounts for as much as 43 per cent of all jobs, while in

Muswellbrook, 35 per cent of jobs are in the mining sector. By contrast, the northern council areas

are heavily exposed to agricultural industries – agricultural employment in the Upper Hunter Shire

and Dungog council accounts for 22 per cent and 17 per cent of total jobs, respectively.

The industry specialisation in each LGA is highly concentrated – creating vulnerabilities with

cyclical and structural changes in key sectors. This means that the employment base of each

council is more dependent on fewer industries, placing jobs at risk if, and when, those industries

are affected by external factors.

Impact of recent trends

Historically, mining activity has been a key driver of economic growth and employment in the

region. In 2019, mining accounted for 57 per cent of the Upper Hunter region’s total GVA (up from

41 per cent in 2011), as well as 32 per cent of employment in the region. Between 2011 and

2019, mining employment increased by some 4,500 jobs to total 12,500 jobs.2 This growth is

almost entirely attributable to increased activity in coal mining across the region.

Outside of mining, other industry sectors driving growth between 2011 and 2019 include the

healthcare and social assistance sector – which added some 750 additional jobs, to account for 7

per cent of the region’s total employment – and the utilities sector, which added some 300

additional jobs, to account for almost 3 per cent of total employment.3

The food manufacturing sub-sector also experienced substantial employment growth, increasing its

workforce size by 54 per cent (or an additional 217 workers) between 2011 and 2016.4 The gains

in food manufacturing, however, were mostly offset by job losses in other manufacturing sub-

sectors.

By contrast, growth in agriculture has been muted. While employment in agriculture increased by

around 100 workers between 2011 and 2019, the sector’s share of regional employment and GVA

both declined over the period.5 Reductions in the number of people employed in the sheep, beef

cattle and grain farming sub-industry across the Upper Hunter dragged on the region’s agricultural

sector – which declined by 269 jobs from 2011 to 2016 (representing a 27 per cent decline).6

A significant contributor to the relative decline of agriculture in the Upper Hunter is the widespread

and severe drought recently experienced across New South Wales. Drought has reduced both the

productive output and profitability of the sector over the decade. Despite the drought having now

broken, this disruption to production supply chains and prices, land use, farm profitability, and

labour skills and retention, is expected to have scarring effects which will continue to impact on

the economic output of the sector for some time.

COVID-19

Since it first emerged in December 2019, COVID-19 has inflicted a multi-dimensional health, social

and economic crisis on the world, deeper and more complex than any recently observed. The

sectoral damage of this recession continues to change amidst the varying impacts of state,

national and international responses. For the Upper Hunter, and much of regional Australia, the

extent of the economic impact of COVID-19 will depend on both their exposure to the virus itself,

together with the policy responses implemented by the different levels of government and impacts

on key export markets.

2 Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) modelling (2020) 3 Ibid 4 ABS Census (2016) 5 DAE modelling (2020) 6 ABS Census (2016)

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International border shutdowns have had a cascading effect across a range of sectors

including not just the airports and airlines themselves, but also in recreation (missing tourists),

education (missing students), and construction (missing migrants). In the Upper Hunter,

stakeholder consultations revealed some difficulty in accessing workers (particularly in the equine

sector) given a historical dependence on seasonal migrant labour to fill some positions.

The impact of lockdowns has put pressure on regional economies, forcing the closure of cafes

and restaurants, pubs and clubs, and hotels and motels, as well as gyms, sporting venues and

entertainment centres. This has had a deep impact on regions like the Upper Hunter, where the

retail trade and hospitality sectors play an important role in employment.

With the crisis ongoing and the full extent of the impacts not yet clear, regions like the Upper

Hunter may be able to expect a mix of cyclical and structural impacts that will be both

negative and positive. In the first instance, COVID-19 may accelerate changes in the Upper

Hunter, with adverse employment consequences as major employers in the region shift their

business operations to survival mode. For example, Peabody (operator of the Wambo mine near

Singleton) announced in August 2020 that after an eight-week partial suspension of operations

that they would “ramp down” production and reduce the size of the local workforce, citing

challenging market conditions (including declining coal prices) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.7

While the lasting effects of COVID-19 for the Upper Hunter (and the commodities market globally)

are not yet known, some of the current impacts of COVID-19 may provide a glimpse of the worst-

case structural outcome following a global shift away from mining. While the region has been

preparing for the impact of such a shift, the immediate impacts of COVID-19 may force the Upper

Hunter to respond to changes sooner than intended.

Looking ahead, the COVID-19 crisis may introduce structural changes in the economy that

could be of benefit to the Upper Hunter. COVID-19 has forced many organisations to reassess

the capacity of their workforce to work remotely. For the Upper Hunter, this could foreshadow a

flight to regional areas by workers previously constrained by location, and encouraged by lower

population density, and affordable housing. The region may also benefit from future government

interventions aimed at stimulating economic demand as the COVID-19 health crisis passes, but

also relating to ongoing issues such as disruptions to the national energy market or to trade

relations with China, for example. Positioning the region to make the most of these opportunities

will require undertaking actions that strengthen the region’s value proposition – including strong

digital infrastructure and connectivity and a clear ‘Why Upper Hunter’ message that can attract

and retain new residents.

2.2 Self-contained employment and supply chains Employment and downstream activities are strongly linked to the dominance of a few industries in

the Upper Hunter region. This is observed by the extent to which these industries almost

exclusively draw on labour from within the region (thereby increasing the dependence of the local

labour force on these industries); as well as the extent to which the broader economy throughout

the region (i.e. downstream supply chain activity) is drawn into supporting the activities of a few

key industries.

Local workers are typically Hunter residents

Based on the information obtained from the latest Census in 2016, the majority of employed

residents in the Upper Hunter work within the region. In other words, the Upper Hunter economy

has a high level of self-contained employment – with 82 per cent of the employed population also

working locally across the Upper Hunter in 2016.8 This reflects the dominance of mining and

agriculture in the region, which typically draw on local workers.

7 Connell, C, Turton, P, 29 August 2020, Mass job losses at Hunter Valley mine as industry reacts to plummeting thermal coal price, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/hunter-valley-coal-mining-feels-the-impact-of-plunging-price/12573370 8 Note: this analysis uses data collected in the 2016 Census. As such, there may have been changes in the region since the time of collection that have not been included in this analysis.

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The Upper Hunter economy is also relatively self-sufficient in terms of meeting local employment

demands locally. In 2016, approximately 70 per cent of local jobs were undertaken by workers

living locally.

Within the Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook draws heavily on workers from Singleton and the Upper

Hunter Shire, with approximately 15 per cent and 12 per cent of workers in Muswellbrook

commuting from these neighbouring LGAs, respectively.

Beyond the four Upper Hunter LGAs, the region also draws on workers from the across the broader

Hunter region. In particular, the Upper Hunter economy draws on workers living in the

neighbouring Cessnock and Maitland LGAs – for example, in 2016 9.2 per cent and 8.9 per cent of

the Upper Hunter’s workforce commuted daily from these areas, respectively. By contrast, only 11

per cent of Upper Hunter residents commuted to the broader Hunter Region for employment.

Few employed Upper Hunter residents travel beyond the broader Hunter Region for employment (7

per cent). At the same time, the Upper Hunter region does not attract many workers from outside

the broader Hunter Region.

: Daily live-work commuter flows between the Upper and Greater Hunter regions

Source: Deloitte, ABS9

Industrial clusters create hubs in regional supply chains

The presence of anchoring industries or industrial clusters often provide economic benefits such as

infrastructure, labour markets, and knowledge spillovers which are optimised by the close physical

proximity of related firms and industries.10 The depth of the Upper Hunter region’s reliance on

these dominant industries can be observed by the extent to which they act as hubs within the

regional supply chain, driving activity and employment across downstream industries. The coal

mining industry in the Upper Hunter, for example, drives a substantial amount of downstream

9 Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia, 2016 10 Spencer, G, 2013, The economic impact of anchor firms and industrial clusters: an analysis of Canadian and American manufacturing firms and clusters, University of Toronto, available at: https://localideas.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/anchor-firms-and-clusters.pdf

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economic activity through its consumption of inputs drawn from other industry sectors within the

Upper Hunter. Although the local coal industry sources a comparatively smaller share of its

domestic inputs from within the Upper Hunter economy, approximately 27 per cent, the

dominance of the coal industry within the Upper Hunter economy makes it the single largest

purchaser of locally produced goods and services.11

The importance of local supply chains to economic activity is stronger for the Upper Hunter’s other

major industry sectors (see Figure 2.3). Agricultural related industries source greater shares of

their total domestic inputs from within the Upper Hunter economy. For example, the sheep, grains,

beef and dairy cattle industries purchase around 35 per cent of their goods and services inputs

from other local industries, while the poultry, other livestock and other agricultural industries

purchase 45 per cent.12 However, because agriculture represents a smaller share of the Upper

Hunter economy, the local spend by the agricultural sectors in dollar value terms only represents

approximately 13 per cent of the local spend by the coal mining sector – i.e. for every $1 spent

within the Upper Hunter economy by the agricultural sector on locally sourced goods and services,

the coal mining industry spends around $7.85.

Figure 2.3 summarises the general level of economic activity which is linked to particular industries

and regions. This does not account for large capital injections or the value of wages and salaries,

rather the day-to-day expenditure profiles of key local industries into other industry sectors. A

summary of other economic interlinkages across the region and across New South Wales more

broadly is explored next in section 2.3.

: Economic interlinkages in the Upper Hunter region

Source: Deloitte Access Economics’ proprietary regional input-output model. Note: These figures should be treated as indicative due to paucity in data relating to regional bilateral trade flows within

Australia. Proxy estimates of regional bilateral trade flows are derived using a ‘gravity model’ underpinned by ABS Census

regional employment by industry data, as well as the ABS National Accounts input-output tables. These estimates may not

account for profits that flow out of regional economies due to multi-location business ownership and operational structures.

Also, the implicit assumption in the gravity model that trade is directly related to proximity of user and supplier may not be

relevant in all cases.

11 These figures should be treated as indicative due to paucity in data relating to regional bilateral trade flows within Australia. Proxy estimates of regional bilateral trade flows are derived using a ‘gravity model’ underpinned by ABS Census regional employment by industry data, as well as the ABS National Accounts input-output tables. These estimates may not account for profits that flow out of regional economies due to multi-location business ownership and operational structures. Also, the implicit assumption in the gravity model that trade is directly related to proximity of user and supplier may not be relevant in all cases. 12 Ibid.

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2.3 Strong regional enablers Functional economic linkages across the region

A key strength of the Upper Hunter is its highly developed regional infrastructure and connectivity

that allows for the transfer of goods and services in and out of the region. The Port of Newcastle is

the world’s largest coal export port with concept plans for the development of a Multi-Purpose

Deepwater Terminal (MDT) at Mayfield which would eventually accommodate a diverse set of

cargo and improve the efficiency of existing supply chains. Previous work undertaken by Deloitte

Access Economics on behalf of the Port of Newcastle explored the role that the Port could play in

helping to manage the current and growing freight task for New South Wales, as well as facilitating

major economic, environmental and regional benefits to the state.13 The report noted that the

“Port of Newcastle has the potential to play an integral role in fulfilling the strategies and plans for

regional development in New South Wales, but this role is not currently recognised in many

regional planning documents”.14

Additionally, the freight movement network connects major industrial estates to the rest of New

South Wales, Australia and global markets. The Hunter has an efficient freight movement network,

with major industrial estates in the region connected on or close to national highways. Links

include:

• Hunter Expressway

• New England Highway servicing Singleton, Muswellbrook and Scone

• Golden Highway from Singleton to Dubbo

• M1 Motorway linking Newcastle and Sydney.

The rail network is also comprehensive with freight connectivity to Sydney, Brisbane, Tamworth,

Moree and the Port of Newcastle, and coal haulage facilitated by the Hunter Valley Coal Chain,

operated by Pacific National, Aurizon, One Rail Australia and Southern Shorthaul Railroad.

13 Deloitte Access Economics (2018) ‘NSW Container and Port Policy’ <https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/port-newcastle-nsw-container-port-policy.html>. 14 Ibid.

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: Regional infrastructure supporting activity in the Upper Hunter

Source: NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

Together with highways and rail, there are also several regional airports – including at Newcastle,

Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Taree and Scone. Scone Airport is a significant air link to the

Upper Hunter and includes Scone Airpark, a location for aviation businesses supplying aircraft

maintenance, manufacture, charter flights, fire-fighting, and aerial agricultural services. Upgrades

announced in 2018 will include the enhancement of existing infrastructure as well as a visitor

attraction center.

The utilities sector in the Upper Hunter is dominated by a few key power generation assets

including the Liddell and Bayswater coal fired power stations, as well as the Hunter Valley gas

turbines. According to AGL, these assets account for 4,370 MW, or around 35 per cent of the

state’s power needs. Further infrastructure exists at the mothballed Redbank power station.

Significant work has been undertaken to consider the future of the Liddell and Bayswater power

stations, particularly given the transmission infrastructure and other resources (land, water) which

are currently used on the sites.

Existing power transmission lines are an advantage for the Upper Hunter, as they provide ready

access to the grid for current and future power generation projects. A number of renewables

projects have already been proposed for the region, including the Bowmans Creek windfarm, Bells

Mountain Pumped Hydro Project, Liverpool Range Wind Farm, Maxwell Solar Farm, Kyoto Energy

Park and Liddell Battery.

Supported by research linkages and collaborations

The broader Hunter region is well supported through active partnerships and collaborations

between industry and research organisations. The focus of a number of these partnerships is in the

renewable, emerging and bio-energy sectors and equine research. The majority of research is

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based in Newcastle, although there is scope for the broader Upper Hunter region to leverage

research opportunities. Chapter 7 of this report outlines a set of actions for inclusive growth that

provide options for the Upper Hunter to leverage new and existing linkages and collaborations to

support economic growth and development.

The Hunter Valley Equine Research Centre (HVERC), located in Scone, is Racing Australia’s primary

industry research centre to enhance productivity and decrease ‘wastage’ (the destruction of

horses) in the industry. Additionally, the Equine Genetics Research Centre, as part of the HVERC,

offers DNA testing for mutations and parentage of horses.

A key research entity in the energy sector is the Newcastle Institute for Energy and Resources, a

collaborative research institute for energy innovation. The object of the Institute is to build on the

relationship between the university and the Hunter region to advance research in clean energy

production and energy efficiency solutions.

Existing governance framework

There is a comprehensive network of organisations, working groups and bodies that support Local

Government Authorities in the Hunter region to deliver and monitor plans such as the Hunter

Regional Plan and the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan. The key groups in the

governance structure of the region and its development includes (but is not limited to):

: Network of groups supporting Hunter Regional local government authorities

Source: Deloitte

As Figure 2.5 shows, the current governance network comprehensively links the three layers of

government. At the state level, the key players in the structure involve the State Government’s

Department of Regional NSW (DRNSW) and Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

(DPIE). At the local level, the key players are the four local councils: Upper Hunter Shire Council,

Muswellbrook Shire Council, Singleton Council, and Dungog Shire Council. Although not directly

represented at a departmental or ministerial level, the Australian Government is actively involved

through Regional Development Australia (RDA).

The Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan (the Plan), prepared by the DRNSW,

established the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group to oversee, drive and report

on progress of the implementation of priorities identified in the Plan. This includes the

development of initiatives such as the UP Portal (Upper Hunter’s centralised investment attraction

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and visitor assistance webpage), which provides resources for investors, local business and

community.

The Working Group reports to the Hunter and Central Coast Regional Leadership Executive (RLE).

The RLE is the principal governance body within the State Government's Regional Governance

Framework. They drive and support State Government priorities in each region, with membership

comprised of the most senior officer in the region from each State Government cluster. The

Working Group provides coordination and oversight, providing a platform to bring together a wide

range of relevant bodies across all levels of government, community and industry.

DRNSW also identified the Hunter Joint Organisation as a key body to deliver on priorities

identified in the Plan. Within the Hunter Joint Organisation, a sub-committee on Economic

Transition was established to work with the State Government and Local Government Authorities

to develop strategies for diversification of the region. This working group drove the creation of the

Hunter 2050 Foundation, established to support and secure new investment and employment

opportunities in the Hunter region. The Foundation also aims to support local businesses affected

by economic changes and ensure governments, industry and the community work together on

greater diversification within the economy.

While these bodies have roles that align with regional goals and aspirations across different levels

of government, consultations with local stakeholders external to government and the governance

structure highlighted several shortcomings with the existing structure. These include:

• For stakeholders external to government, engaging and navigating the governance

structure can be difficult. While comprehensive, the existing structure is challenging for

external stakeholders to identify which appendage should be engaged with and best aligns with

their needs.

• External stakeholders also identified that it can be difficult to understand the differences

in role and responsibilities and, ultimately, the key decision-maker across the different

governance bodies. For example, for potential investors/businesses with interest in the region,

identifying which organisation to approach for assistance was not entirely clear.

• There is also a perception among external stakeholders of a lack of genuine

consultation, particularly when ascertaining how stakeholder engagement led to outcomes

that could support them during a structural economic transition.

An appropriate and well-designed governance structure can be the difference between a successful

and unsuccessful transition, playing a central role in assisting communities to navigate an

economic transition. To be successful, the structure needs to be transparent, accessible and

efficient, providing a tangible link between policy today and outcomes tomorrow. These linkages

need to be transparent and readily observable to gain the confidence and support of a diverse –

and not always aligned – group of key stakeholders. Principles of best governance frameworks and

examples of governance structures from other regions within Australia that have undergone a

disruptive economic transition are explored further in Chapter 8

To support the many complex aspects of an economic transition, there is a risk that governance

structures can evolve into multiple decision-making bodies, with each operating independently of

one another. Ultimately, this can result in either many actions that are at odds with one another,

or, worse, no action due to no clear lines of responsibility being established.

Alternatively, governance structures can become too complex without a clear set of goals and lines

of responsibility. This can result in inefficiencies in terms of the timeliness and quality of decision-

making. It may also lead to a lack of confidence among those outside the structure.

State and national policy alignment

There are several state and national policy and program initiatives that will impact the Upper

Hunter region. The economic and social development of the Upper Hunter sits within the context of

these broader state and national policies. Policies and program documents are listed in Appendix B

and C under national, state, regional and local government headings.

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The aim of the numerous policies and documents is to provide strategic direction on economic

development, sustainability and environmental impacts of key industries at the national, state and

regional level. Frameworks to contextualise the aims of local government areas specific to the

Upper Hunter region provide guidance on how best to encourage economic opportunities for

businesses and people in the region.

The focus of several of the policy documents is to prepare the Upper Hunter and New South Wales

for a low or carbon neutral policy environment, with specific reference to reducing reliance on coal

mining within the region.

In the past few years, the State Government has released numerous strategic planning

documents. Of particular significance is the Strategic Statement on coal exploration and mining in

NSW and A 20-Year Economic Vision for Regional NSW.

The purpose of the Strategic Statement on coal exploration and mining in NSW is to outline how

the State Government is taking a responsible approach to the global transition to a low carbon

future, consistent with Australia’s ambition under the Paris Agreement. A 20-Year Economic Vision

for Regional NSW outlines the vision for regional town centres, people and businesses in New

South Wales. The document highlights key objectives to enable regional New South Wales to

achieve sustainable and long-term economic growth through developing strong trade agreements

and relationships, bringing governments, industry and communities together with a further focus

on Aboriginal economic participation.

The release of these strategic policy documents indicates that future development, planning for the

transition from coal to other energy sources and the diversification of industries, is already being

prepared for by key state and national policy makers.

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3 Local demographics and

social trends

3.1 Trends in population Current trends

Like many regional areas across Australia, the population in the Upper Hunter has remained

relatively stable across the past decade. While growth in the total state population has been above

average for several years, driven by strong international migration – particularly international

students in Sydney – regional centres across New South Wales have been relatively unsuccessful

in capturing a substantial share of overseas arrivals. Instead, regional population growth has been

sustained through natural increases, measured as the total number of births minus the total

number of deaths – a source of growth which is largely unsustainable in the long term, as birth

rates continue to decline across Australia and an ageing population leads to an increase in the

number of deaths. Net internal migration – the movement of people across Australia – is also

typically a drag on regional economies, including the Upper Hunter, particularly for young people

who are relatively mobile in seeking out work and educational opportunities.

Chart 3.1 shows the population of the Upper Hunter region was approximately 63,400 people in

2018-19, with the largest share (37 per cent) residing in Singleton.

Chart 3.1: Population of the Upper Hunter region by LGA, 2018-19


Population growth in the region has been relatively slow across all LGAs, with average annual

growth across the past decade sitting at around 0.4 per cent per year (including some periods of

marginal population decline recently). Overall, the total population within the region is around the

same size as it was in 2015. In contrast, New South Wales has experienced relatively strong

15 ABS, Regional Population Growth Australia, 2018-19 (cat. no. 3218.0)

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growth, driven largely by international migration, with an average of 1.4 per cent per year

recorded over the past decade.

Over 2018-19, natural increase (the difference between total births and total deaths) and net

overseas migration were positive contributors to population growth across each of the LGAs. While

net internal migration was a positive contributor to the population of Dungog, there were more

domestic departures than arrivals recorded for each of the other LGAs, resulting in a net loss of

approximately 440 people to other regions of Australia.

Chart 3.2: Regional population growth, 2009 to 2019


Age profile

While total population and population growth are important factors, the most important

demographic feature of any population is its age structure – which dictates everything from the

type of services and housing required, to consumption patterns and transport needs.

Overall, the total population within the region is relatively younger than the total state, with 21.4

per cent of the population in the Upper Hunter in 2018-19 aged between under 14-years

(compared with 18.7 per cent for total New South Wales). The working age population made up

63.2 per cent of the total Upper Hunter population in 2018-19 (compared with 65.2 per cent for

New South Wales), with internal outflows contributing to the relative lower proportion of people in

this age group. While a key source of concern for many regions, the trend towards young people

leaving – particularly for opportunities in capital cities – is largely consistent across the world.

Rather than a focus on retainment, some regions are now focussing their efforts on reattracting

young people once they have acquired additional skills and employment, and in many cases, are

ready (or have started) family formation.

At the other end of the population age structure, there were around 9,780 people living in the

Upper Hunter region who are aged 65 years and older (representing 15.4 per cent of the total

population, compared with 16.1 per cent for New South Wales). While most people in this age

group are retired from the workforce, there are some – particularly in the agricultural industry –

who remain active in the labour market well beyond the typical age of retirement. Overall, this age

16 Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2018-19

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structure provides a boost to the labour force participation in a region (as participation is typically

calculated using the population 15 years and above), which means that participation at specific

ages should be considered when comparing other regions or averages.

Population projections

Looking forward, population growth across the region is expected to slow relative to the rest of the

state and decline over time. Future population projections prepared by DPIE (pre-COVID) under

high, low, and trend scenarios forecast that the population across the Upper Hunter will decline

relative to the rest of the state. Chart 3.3 shows that, under optimistic conditions, the regional

population is expected to increase at an annual average rate of 0.3 per cent per annum and reach

68,100 people over the 20 year period – or, under less favourable conditions, to decline by 0.3 per

cent per annum to 59,900 people.

The expected population decline across the Upper Hunter becomes more acute when only those in

the prime working-age cohort (25 to 54 years) are considered. As discussed earlier, this is

attributable to a combination of the region’s continued struggle to retain and attract younger

people and the ageing of the existing population. As shown in Chart 3.3, trend scenario estimates

for the prime working age population in the Upper Hunter declines by 8 percentage points over the

20-year period from around 24,600 in 2021 to 22,700 in 2041.

While the loss of the working-age population reflects a loss in productive capacity for the region,

such a decline also eases pressure on the labour market in the event that the region undergoes a

disruptive economic transition over this period. As explored further in Chapter 7, opportunities to

mitigate declines in the working-age population should focus on attracting younger workers to the

region through actions that support and facilitate the creation of desirable employment

opportunities, and improve the amenity and perception of the region as desirable place to live and

raise a family.

Chart 3.3: Population projections (indexed) for the Upper Hunter region by growth scenario, 2021-2041

Panel A: all ages Panel B: prime working-age (25 to 54 years)

Source: Deloitte, DPIE17

Across the Upper Hunter region, the projected decline in populations is not evenly distributed and

certain LGAs are expected to fare better than others. Chart 3.4 shows that the prime working-age

population in Dungog, for example, is expected to remain relatively stable over the period (under

the trend scenario); whereas, the population in Upper Hunter Shire is expected to decline rapidly

at an average annual rate of just over 1 per cent per year from around 5,500 in 2021 to 4,300

people in 2041.

17 NSW Government, Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Population Projection Scenarios by LGA <https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Population-projections/Projections>

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It should be noted that these population projections were modelled by DPIE prior to the onset of

COVID-19. As a consequence, the modelled estimates, especially the estimated population

numbers, are not reflective of the short and longer-term impacts that COVID-19 is expected to

continue to have on population flows both internationally and domestically. At this stage, it

remains unclear what the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 might be on population flows, and

whether these trends will benefit the Upper Hunter region and potentially mitigate its population

decline. DPIE is currently in the process of updating its population forecasts for New South Wales

and these are expected to be available in late 2020 or early 2021.

Chart 3.4: Prime working-age (25 to 54 years) population projections (indexed) for Upper Hunter region

LGAs, 2021 to 2041 (trend scenario)

Source: Deloitte, DPIE18

3.2 Labour force tailored to current economy Employment, unemployment and participation

The broader Hunter region has experienced a combination of low unemployment and high labour

force participation for several years, relative to New South Wales. The Upper Hunter’s participation

rate has remained above that of the greater Hunter region and New South Wales for a number of

years, at 71 per cent in 2018-19 as shown in Chart 3.5. Both male and female labour force

participation in the region is higher than the state average.

In 2018-19 the unemployment rate in the Upper Hunter was 4.8 per cent, comparable to the 4.6

per cent in NSW.19 This is not evenly distributed across the labour force, as shown in Chart 3.6.

18 Ibid. 19 Note: Labour force data is as at end of June 2019 and as such does not incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is noted however that the total JobSeeker and Youth Allowance Payments for the Upper Hunter region (comprising the Dungog, Muswellbrook, Muswellbrook Region, Scone, Scone Region and Singleton SA2 areas) sat at around 3,000 and 460 recipients over the period May to July 2020.

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Youth unemployment remains a key concern for the community with unemployment for those

aged 15 to 24 years reaching 10.6 per cent as of 2018-19.

Chart 3.5: Labour force participation rate, annually, 2011 to 2019


Chart 3.6: Unemployment in the Upper Hunter, 2018-19


There is a wide variation in median incomes across the Upper Hunter, as shown in Chart 3.7.

Singleton and Muswellbrook median incomes are considerably higher than the state median,

reflecting the dominance of mining employment and wages in that sector. By comparison, the

Upper Hunter Shire and Dungog have significantly lower median incomes than the greater New

South Wales area.

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Upper Hunter Hunter Region NSW

70+

65-69

45-64

25-44

20-24

15-19

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Male Female

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Chart 3.7: Median employee income ($ nominal) by region, 2011 to 2017


Occupation, skills and education

While residents in the Upper Hunter typically have a lower level of educational attainment than the

average for New South Wales as a whole (see Chart 3.8 below), a larger than average share (36

per cent) of the workforce has a diploma or certificate; reflecting the required trade qualifications

of the main employment opportunities in the region.

Chart 3.8: Educational attainment among the working-age population, 2016

Panel A: By age grouping Panel B: By place of residence

20 Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 6524.0.55.002, Personal Income in Australia, 2011-12 to 2016-17

38,000

41,000

44,000

47,000

50,000

53,000

56,000Dungog (A)

Muswellbrook (A)

Singleton (A)

Upper Hunter

Shire (A)

NSW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Secondary Education

Certificate

Advanced Diploma /

Diploma Level

Bachelor Degree

Graduate Diploma /Graduate Certificate

Postgraduate DegreeLevel

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Upper

HunterHunter

RegionNSW

Secondary Education

Certificate

Advanced Diploma /Diploma Level

Bachelor Degree

Graduate Diploma /Graduate Certificate

Postgraduate Degree

Level

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There is no doubt that the labour market and the future of work has been impacted by the

outbreak of COVID-19. There remains ongoing uncertainty around the current crisis which has

seen increased unemployment and reduced economic activity throughout Australia. With more

people working from home, outflows of people from regional areas to large metropolitan cities is

likely to decrease in the short-term as fewer people move to urban areas for immediate work and

education opportunities.

Additionally, some analysts have also suggested that city residents may look to relocate to more

regional areas (such as the Upper Hunter) in response to the greater acceptance and normalisation

of working from home. In general, regional areas present an attractive alternative, offering greater

housing affordability, reduced traffic and positive lifestyle changes.

3.3 Community vibrancy Community vibrancy is the active and inclusive participation in an economy by the whole

community, including those who are vulnerable to disadvantage and experience exclusion. A

vibrant economy achieves social and economic benefits for all individuals and the community

through evaluating and addressing existing social and economic barriers that create disparity and

disadvantage within communities.22

Disadvantage or vulnerability is the result of the complex interplay between individual factors, the

economic characteristics of the local community (e.g. unemployment, low income) and the effects

of the social and environmental context within the community (e.g. weak social networks, relative

lack of opportunities). As such, a one-pronged approach is unlikely to address the issues faced by

vulnerable cohorts in the Upper Hunter region. Gaining a deeper understanding of the vibrancy

and inclusiveness of the economy and designing policies and strategies is more likely to be

effective. This can be evaluated and supported through Deloitte’s

Deloitte’s has three key components that consider what factors

and actions need to be taken to support vulnerable cohorts, delivering the benefits of inclusive

growth.

• Access – this component identifies and evaluates the various socioeconomic barriers that

operate to inhibit access and inclusion within an economy. For example, housing affordability,

transport accessibility, and access and options around health and education services.

• Belonging – this component identifies and assesses an individual’s sense of belonging. Strong

social networks within a community can support disadvantaged and marginalised cohorts,

whereas weak social networks or poor perceptions of certain cohorts can lead to further

isolation and disadvantage.

• Activation – this component assesses the drivers that support access and belonging within an

economy, such as the diversity of jobs within an economy, access to skills and education, and

diversity of housing.

There are numerous cohorts within a community that are disproportionately susceptible to

vulnerabilities and face greater barriers when participating in the broader economy. These include:

• young people (15 to 24 years)

• Indigenous Australians

• The long-term unemployed

• welfare recipients

• persons with disability

• lone parent families – especially female.

21 Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia, 2016 22 AIHW (2016), Australia’s health 2016

4(d)

4(d)

4(d)

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These cohorts are more likely to have higher levels of unemployment and lower levels of labour

force participation, lower educational attainment rates, housing affordability issues, higher rates of

health and mental health issues and experience social and community exclusion. They may be

particularly vulnerable to the following barriers, which tend to disproportionately impact these

cohorts:

• a lack of growth and diversity of job opportunity, especially entry level jobs

• greater disparity in median incomes

• social, community and health service choice

• transport and distance to education and employment opportunities

• transport and distance to social, community and health services.

Within the Upper Hunter region, the following groups have been identified as vulnerable cohorts

who should be considered when developing inclusive growth policies:

• young people (15 to 24 years)

• Indigenous Australians

• the long-term unemployed

• lone parent families – especially female.

These vulnerable cohorts are considered in more detail in the following section below.

Young people23

Young people in the Upper Hunter region are disproportionately impacted by vulnerabilities that

affect their active participation in the economy.

The lack of active participation in the economy by young people is exemplified through the

comparison of various economic indicators against regional New South Wales averages. Youth

unemployment in the region is 10.6 per cent, compared to the region’s overall average of 4.8 per

cent. This in turn feeds a significant income disadvantage, with over 40 per cent of individuals

aged between 18 and 29 years reporting a shortage of money to meet daily needs, as well as 80

per cent unable to raise $2,000 in the event of an emergency, and 14 per cent falling below the

poverty line.24 This income inequality leaves many young people vulnerable.

Chart 3.9: Generational inequality existing within the Upper Hunter region

Source: HRFC 25

Note: Categories within age cohorts do not sum to 100%

23 Young people for the purposes of this section is defined as those aged between 15 and 24 years. 24 Hunter Research Foundation Centre, Hunter Region Economic Indicators - Special Issue: Inequality, 2018 25 Hunter Research Foundation Centre, Hunter Region Economic Indicators - Special Issue: Inequality, 2018

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Young people are more likely to face the disruptive capacity of technology and the changing nature

of work as Industry 4.0 progresses and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)

capabilities become increasingly ingrained across all industries. Currently, industries within the

Upper Hunter region rely heavily on trades and skills, specifically in the fields of engineering,

automotive, electro-technology and construction. The region has been underpinned by its relative

advantage in mining over the past few decades, which has resulted in a workforce that is highly

paid but not necessarily highly skilled. Moreover, some stakeholders noted that many young

people in the mining industry lack a strong educational foundation, leaving secondary education

before completion of year 12. As a result, the workforce is facing potential difficulties in the

transferability in skills which may present significant issues in the future.

Employment and educational attainment rates among young people (i.e. those aged between 15

and 24 years) reflects regional employment patterns that require trade qualifications for males,

with over 66 per cent of males attaining certificate level qualifications compared to 16 per cent

with bachelor degrees or higher. There is higher female employment in occupations that require

degrees, including health, education and professional services, with 29 per cent of females holding

bachelor’s degrees. However, the overall share of young people in the Upper Hunter holding

tertiary qualifications is significantly lower than the state average (31 per cent of males and 40 per

cent of females).26 Relatively low tertiary education attainment is also propagated by the

opportunity cost associated with pursuing further studies rather than income-generating work.

Most roles within the mining industry require hands-on training in the form of apprenticeships and

“learning on the job”, where employees receive the baseline training required to complete their

role. As these mining roles are generally well-paid, there is perceived to be little benefit in

completing further education rather than working, especially for young people who are seeking to

better their own or their family’s financial situation.

Cultural factors also contribute to the low education attainment rates as many young people are

the first in their family to have the opportunity to pursue a university education, which can affect

participation and retention rates. As a result, over 51 per cent are non-school qualified,27 with a

very low baseline of capabilities that extend beyond their immediate role.28

Chart 3.10: Skills and education level of young people across the Upper Hunter region

Source: Upper Hunter Workforce Plan, 2016

26 Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 4125.0, Gender Indicators, Australia, Sep 2017. 27 Non-school qualified refers to highest qualification less than year 12. 28 Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia, 2016

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In addition, access to highly regarded tertiary education in the region is limited, with those with

the opportunity and means opting to move to metropolitan hubs such as Newcastle to pursue this.

The lack of public transport and distance between housing and education and job opportunities

forces a preference for vehicular transport, further disadvantaging young people who have access

to limited finances to gain access to a car and a license in order to pursue further education or

employment. Whilst COVID-19 has improved the region’s access to TAFE and online university

courses, various stakeholders have identified that there must be an improvement in the delivery of

these courses to increase engagement and learning outcomes. Furthermore, basic literacy,

numeracy and technology skills are a barrier to accessing these online tools, requiring further

incorporation into primary and secondary schooling.

Vulnerable cohorts within the community face greater disadvantage, often perpetuated by a lack of

appropriate support systems. This in turn acts as a barrier to both employment and further

educational attainment. Young people are especially vulnerable in the Upper Hunter Region,

identified as the group least likely to feel a part of their community.29

One in five young people in the Upper Hunter region (aged between 15 and 18) are affected by

mental illness – of which, 38 per cent have had a concern report in the last three years, meaning

that concerns have been raised about their wellbeing or safety by community members. One

quarter (25 per cent) of these at-risk youth are either living or have lived in social housing;

however, this figure does not accurately reflect those living under high rental stress and who are

unable to access social and affordable housing.30

Some young people may face barriers to accessing housing due to the high rental costs, low

incomes, insecure share housing and the lack of social and affordable housing in the region.31

Despite the number of social and affordable housing schemes across the Upper Hunter region, as

noted by Marina Lee-Warner of the Upper Hunter Homeless Support, “there’s a long wait and there

are long queues for community housing.”32 In the Upper Hunter, as discussed in the social impact

focus groups, this translates to overcrowding, people sleeping in their cars, and a general lack of

wellbeing and safety.

The costs associated with supporting at-risk young people is 3.5 times the average cost for all

young people in New South Wales. On average, the aggregated cost of providing human services

to these at-risk youth up to the age of 40 is $138,000.33 Part of this cost could be avoided if at-

risk young people were supported at an earlier stage, with measures such as social and affordable

housing and early and ongoing support provided by mental health and social services. Economic

diversification would further improve long-term and stable employment prospects, reducing

unemployment and providing opportunities to people in the region.

In addressing youth vulnerability, employment is a major driver towards greater socio-economic

equality. As discussed above, youth unemployment is a major issue within the Upper Hunter

region, with limited entry-level positions and evidence of youth disengagement from education and

training. Approximately 52 per cent of at-risk youth receive NAPLAN results lower than Band 6,

demonstrating a lack of engagement from a younger age.34 Less than 40 per cent of the youth

cohort completes Year 12 or equivalent,35 likely due to the combination of growing disengagement

and the desire to pursue high-paying vocational trades as previously discussed, rather than

completing their education. However, as the region shifts away from mining and associated skills,

young people will face a significant disadvantage due to their lack of a strong foundational

29 Hunter Research Foundation Centre, Hunter Region Economic Indicators - Special Issue: Inequality, 2018 30 NSW Government, (2018), Their Futures Matter [online] Available at < https://www.theirfuturesmatter.nsw.gov.au/> [Accessed June 2018] 31 Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2020. Australia's Children. [online] Available at: <https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/6af928d6-692e-4449-b915-cf2ca946982f/aihw-cws-69-print-report.pdf.aspx?inline=true> [Accessed 6 August 2020]. 32 Tsaousis, C., 2019. Muswellbrook St Vincent de Paul Society raising awareness and funds for homelessness through its annual Sleepout. Hunter Valley News, [online] Available at: 33 NSW Government, (2018), Their Futures Matter [online] Available at <https://www.theirfuturesmatter.nsw.gov.au/> [Accessed June 2018] 34 Ibid 35 Upper Hunter Workforce Plan (2016)

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education. This will likely exacerbate the income disadvantage, rental stress and general lack of

wellbeing faced by young people in the region.

As demonstrated, young people in the Upper Hunter region are disproportionately impacted by

certain vulnerabilities which reduce their active participation in the economy. The complex

interplay between income disadvantage, reduced educational attainment, lack of employment

opportunities and inadequate support services can lead to an overall loss of wellbeing and safety

for this vulnerable cohort, damaging their ability to contribute to the community and in turn

actively participate in the economy.

In order to support greater economic participation of this cohort, the following factors should be

considered: greater diversity of opportunity for entry level jobs; affordable social and community

services and infrastructure; better community and educational engagement; improved transport

accessibility and access to adequate mental and health services. These are explored further as

opportunities for action in section 7.4 and section 7.5. Without addressing the barriers identified,

this cohort will continue to present additional strain on the health, social service, and economic

systems within the region.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population

Across Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) people are disproportionately

faced with unique challenges that can negatively impact on their social and emotional wellbeing.

These factors include racism, violence and high psychological distress. This impact to wellbeing can

have negative impacts on employment, income, living conditions and accessing economic

opportunity. These factors of disadvantage often place Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

in a position of vulnerability compared to the non-Indigenous population.36 This is evident in

education, income and employment data from across the Upper Hunter region.

For example, 4 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons have attained a university

qualification in the Upper Hunter Region, compared to 12 per cent of non-Indigenous Australians in

same region. A similar trend is seen with VET qualifications, where 29 per cent of Aboriginal and

Torres Strait Islander persons achieve this qualification compared to 36 per cent in the non-

Indigenous population. By comparison, 13 per cent of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

population have completed a Year 12 qualification, on par with the non-Indigenous population.

More than half, or 55 per cent of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have Year 11

or below as their highest qualification. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are less likely to

undertake further education due to cultural barriers, affordability issues, community

disengagement and lack of access to support and health services. It is critical to address these

barriers to ensure that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are given greater opportunities

to access further education.

36 https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/australias-welfare-2017-in-brief/contents/indigenous-australians

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Chart 3.11: Education Levels of Indigenous and Non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region


Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Upper Hunter region are more likely to

experience higher levels of economic disengagement. In 2016, for example, the average

unemployment rate for Indigenous residents was around 14 per cent in comparison to the 6.7 per

cent rate experience across the region more broadly. Labour force participation among the

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was also lower at 64.3 per cent, compared to 68

per cent within the total Upper Hunter region in 2016.

Within the Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook features the highest unemployment rate among the

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population (Chart 3.12). This is driven by higher

unemployment rates across all age groupings, but particularly adult unemployment (35 years and

older) – for which the unemployment rate in Muswellbrook is 17.1 per cent, compared to 5.7 per

cent in Singleton, 2.9 per cent in Upper Hunter Shire, and 0.0 per cent in Dungog.

Chart 3.12: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander unemployment rate, Upper Hunter region, 2016

37 Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia, 2016

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As illustrated in Chart 3.13, median personal weekly income among Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islanders is lower compared to the non-Indigenous population – but slightly higher than that of the

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population across the rest of New South Wales.

Chart 3.13: Median total personal weekly income of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and

non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region and NSW, 2016


Lower employment and educational attainment among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

is further perpetuated by large inequities in health between the Indigenous population and non-

Indigenous populations. A significant proportion (64 per cent) of the burden of disease among

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is due to chronic diseases, while a further 19 per cent

of this burden is due to mental health and substance use disorders.40 The three highest ranked

health issues within this population are coronary heart disease, suicide and self-inflicted injuries

and anxiety disorders.41 All of these conditions are affected by the ability to access services that

enrich an individual’s social determinants of health. Less disposable income provides less choice

and access to these services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. At the national level,

the current life expectancy gap at birth between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons is 8.6

years for males and 7.8 years for females.42

In 2012-13, 30 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 18-years and over

reported high or very high levels of psychological distress, compared to 10 per cent of non-

Indigenous Australians in New South Wales.43 Through consultations with social service providers,

38 Ibid. 39 Ibid. 40 Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2011. Australian Burden of Disease Study: impact and causes of illness and death in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 2011. [online] Available at: < https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/burden-of-disease/illness-death-indigenous-australians/contents/table-of-contents> 41 Ibid. 42 Australian Government (2020) ‘Closing the Gap 2020’ <https://ctgreport.niaa.gov.au/sites/default/files/pdf/closing-the-gap-report-2020.pdf>. 43 Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2017. Health Performance Framework 2017 Report. [online] Available at: < https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/580054e1-f967-4d48-82c9-bf67fbfb08d1/aihw-ihw-182-nsw.pdf.aspx?inline=true>

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it was made clear that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people require access to long-term

mental health services to heal from intergenerational trauma. However, the services that social

workers and counsellors are funded to provide are short term, which does not meet the great

needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people.44 Long-term, culturally sensitive

mental health services are expensive and often located in bigger cities, which means they are

often not accessible.

Physical and mental health have an impact on an individual’s ability to be motivated to work and

their likelihood of being hired and retained.45 Without affordable social infrastructure to support

positive health outcomes and mental health, these poor health outcomes will continue to burden

the health and economic systems and impede an individual’s ability to access work and further

education.

As mentioned above, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people earn significantly less personal

weekly income than other populations within the Upper Hunter region and are more likely to face

long-term unemployment. This causes great financial strain that also impacts access to stable

housing. As a result, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in regional areas have been

identified as more likely to live in overcrowded dwellings or in social housing, and less likely to own

their own home.46,47 With over 60,000 people on the current New South Wales waiting list for

social housing, the need for more affordable housing is evident.48

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of the region is characterised by a much

younger age profile. As mentioned in section 3.3.1, as the region moves away from mining and

skills-based trades, higher educational qualifications will be required to access employment

opportunities. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are less likely to access further

education due to barriers.49 Some of the barriers surfaced in social and community services

consultations included cost, cultural factors and transport barriers in the Upper Hunter Region. The

nearest university is in Newcastle, which is an expensive commute and takes almost a two hour

drive from Muswellbrook. Additionally, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people may not

be encouraged by family to pursue further study and instead choose to work, to provide for their

families instead. During consultations undertaken with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

and social service providers, it was made evident that many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

young people access TAFE qualifications, through partnerships with local schools and social

services through mechanisms such as art therapy groups. However, it was noted that the

industries within the region are rapidly evolving and that these qualifications are usually only a

stepping-stone, and not enough to access a job in the market.

44 Dudgeon, P, Milroy, H, Walker, R, 2014, Working together: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Mental Health and Wellbeing Principles and Practice, Commonwealth Government, available at: https://www.telethonkids.org.au/globalassets/media/documents/aboriginal-health/working-together-second-edition/working-together-aboriginal-and-wellbeing-2014.pdf 45Goodman, N, November 2015, The Impact of Employment on the Health Status and Health Care Costs of Working-age People with Disabilities, Lead Centre, available at: <http://www.leadcenter.org/system/files/resource/downloadable_version/impact_of_employment_health_status_health_care_costs_0.pdf> 46 NSW Council of Social Service (2019), Mapping Economic Disadvantage in New South Wales 47 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2017), Australia's Welfare 2017: in brief

48 NSW Government, 2016. Future Directions for Social Housing in NSW [online] Available at: < http://www.socialhousing.nsw.gov.au/?a=348442> 49 Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2018, The Prime Minister’s annual report to Parliament on progress in Closing the Gap, Australian Government, available at: <https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/reports/closing-the-gap-2018/education.html>

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Chart 3.14: Age distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in the Upper Hunter region,

2016

Source: ABS50

As demonstrated above, Indigenous people in the Upper Hunter region are impacted by significant

vulnerabilities which may put them at risk of reduced participation in mainstream economic

activities. This complex interplay between relatively low educational attainment, lower levels of

employment and inadequate support services (as noted through the consultations held as part of

this project) can lead to an overall loss of wellbeing and safety, damaging their ability to contribute

to the community and in turn actively participate in the economy.

In order to support greater economic participation of this cohort the following should be

considered:

• greater access to transport

• greater diversity of entry level jobs

• affordable social and community infrastructure

• better community and educational engagement

• and access to adequate mental and health services.

These are explored further as opportunities for action in sections 7.4 and 7.5. Without addressing

the barriers identified, this cohort will continue to present additional strain on the health, social

service, and economic systems within the region.

Lone parent families

Recipients of welfare within the Upper Hunter region, especially intergenerational welfare

recipients, are impacted by significant vulnerabilities that affect their active participation in the

economy. Within the cohort of welfare recipients, lone parent families, specifically those that are

headed by a single female parent, are particularly susceptible to experiencing economic

challenges, as discovered during various consultations.

Analysis of the economic characteristics of this group, including unemployment rates and economic

indicators such as median household income, highlight the existing vulnerabilities within the

cohort.

50 Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia, 2016

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Lone parent families, of which 83 per cent in Australia are headed by a single female parent, are

the family type with the highest rates of poverty. Lone female parents in particular are known to

experience higher rates of poverty (see Chart 3.15). For New South Wales, outside of metropolitan

Sydney, the poverty rate for lone parent households is 35 per cent, almost 8 percentage points

higher than that of the metropolitan area. In regional New South Wales, lone parent households

have been found to be particularly economically challenged. Recently published research by the

NSW Council of Social Services identified that lone parent households in regional New South Wales

experience much higher rates of significant economic disadvantage, with multiple regional

locations demonstrating poverty rates of over 50 per cent for lone parent households.51

Chart 3.15: Poverty rates by family type in NSW, 2019

Source: NSW Council of Social Services52

A comparison of the average weekly income of lone parent households to that of the average

weekly incomes across the Upper Hunter region highlights a significant disparity. Specifically, in

the Muswellbrook LGA, average weekly income for families headed by a single female parent is

$225 less than the average household.53 This difference is the result of a number of factors,

including barriers to employment and higher susceptibility to welfare dependence.

Although the average weekly income for male and female-headed lone parent families is

comparable (exclusive of the Singleton LGA), there are significantly more female lone parents

within the Upper Hunter. Census data indicates that there were more than triple the number of

female-headed lone parent families living within the Upper Hunter region (approximately 1,800) in

comparison to male-headed ones (approximately 500).

Further, within these groups, there is a notable variance in the range of age groups. The female-

headed lone parent families are, on average, significantly younger than their male counterparts,

with over 60 per cent of female lone parents aged under 45 years, and over 60 per cent of male

lone parents aged over 45 years54. Additionally, almost 20 per cent of female lone parents are

aged under 30, compared to just 3 per cent of male lone parents. This demonstrates the

intersecting of vulnerabilities amongst female-headed lone parent families, as many also

experience the challenges of being a young person, indicating that this group is susceptible to an

increased number of social and economic challenges compared with their male counterparts.

Within the Upper Hunter, female-headed lone parent families were seen to experience higher rates

of unemployment compared to all persons within the region. Data from the 2016 ABS Census, for

example, indicates an average unemployment rate of 14.4 per cent for female-headed lone parent

51 ACOSS, UNSW (2020), Poverty in Australia 2020 52 NSW Council of Social Service (2019), Mapping Economic Disadvantage in New South Wales 53 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 54 Ibid

7.4

11.8

27.2

21.2

6.3

12.3

22.6

18.7

8.810.7

35

24.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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Couple only households Couple with children

households

Single parent

households

Single person

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families – more than double the average rate of 6.25 per cent for all persons within the Upper

Hunter Shire, Dungog, Muswellbrook, and Singleton LGAs.55

Chart 3.16: Employment among lone parent families (female parent), Upper Hunter region

Source: Deloitte, ABS (2016)

The lower rates of income and employment for female sole parents are affected by a series of

interlinked issues that are not only a symptom of, but also contribute to their economic and social

barriers. Consultation with social service providers of the Upper Hunter region highlighted several

key barriers to social inclusion, employment and/or education. These barriers included lack of

transport, high costs of living and housing, scepticism and a negative perception of accessing

support services, and isolation from social and community services.

Cost of living pressures in the Upper Hunter region

A sentiment to emerge from community and industry stakeholder consultations, particularly

those with strong linkages with the agribusiness sectors, is the perceived impact that coal

mining is having on the costs of living and housing affordability in the region for those in

industries unrelated to mining. While areas like the Upper Hunter LGA are more affordable

relative to metropolitan cities and other regional areas in New South Wales,56 the experience

for residents, particularly low-income earners, has been different. In general, the presence of

large mining projects has varying and complex impacts on regional economies and

communities, particularly on housing and housing affordability. Where mining activity increases

employment and incomes, it can also contribute to cost of living pressures for lower socio-

economic groups, such as lone parent households, which can compound and lead to other

costly social issues such as a shortage of affordable housing.57

55 Ibid 56 Compass Housing, 2020, The affordable housing income gap, available at: https://www.compasshousing.org/sites/default/files/Compass%20AHIG%20Index%202020%20Report_WEB%20%281%29.pdf 57 Akbar, D and Rolfe, J, 2013, Assessing and Managing Cumulative Impacts of Mining on Regional Housing in Australia: A Case Study, Central Queensland University, https://www.anzrsai.org/assets/Uploads/Resources/ANZRSAI-2013-Conference-Proceedings.pdf#page=21

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These barriers, specifically high costs of living and lack of accessibility (due to transport limitations

and isolation), make entering the workforce particularly challenging for people of a lower income,

such as female sole parents.

One example of these barriers in the Upper Hunter is a lack of access to affordable childcare. From

consultations it emerged that affordable and accessible childcare is an issue for parents and carers

within the Upper Hunter, and specifically lone parents given limited choice and availability.

Childcare services can require a significant proportion of the household income,58 and limited

choice or number of early childhood education services across the Upper Hunter regions

exacerbate this issue. For lone parent families who are already facing increased economic

hardships compared to two parent households, finding financially accessible childcare is even more

of a struggle. The inability to access childcare due to financial struggles, in turn, contributes

further to their financial burden as it limits their ability to participate in the workforce.

The Australian Institute of Family Studies found a variety of childcare-related issues that may

affect employment decisions, particularly of lone parents. These issues included shortages of

locally available childcare, availability to take children to and from school, access, and ability to fit

work in with care responsibilities (especially a lack of flexibility in low-paid, low-skilled jobs).59 The

isolation from social and community services and limitations to transport within the Upper Hunter

increases the identified challenges for sole parents in the region.

As previously articulated, sole-parent households (the majority of which are female-headed) have

been identified as the most impoverished family type in Australia and are known to be

overrepresented in areas of poverty, hardship, deprivation, violence and inequality.60

Policy responses are thought to sometimes worsen rather than relieve the ability of lone parent

families to meet household expenses. The financial predicament of female-lead sole parent families

is exacerbated by cuts to welfare payments, inflexible activity requirements, and problems with

the child support system.

Further, poverty in sole parent families is thought to be generationally entrenched. Around three

per cent of Australians (or around 700,000 people) are estimated to experience persistent and

recurrent poverty. In alignment with these findings, consultation with representatives from the

Upper Hunter Region from the social services landscape identified that a number of welfare

dependent groups within the region are intergenerational welfare recipients. The longevity of

poverty and susceptibility to remaining within the lowest brackets of income distribution across

many years is indicative of entrenched inequality. It has been estimated that rectifying the

impoverished status of sole parent families could take as long as four generations.61

Intergenerational welfare receipt is a broader marker of intergenerational disadvantage than

traditional income poverty, and reflects not only a lack of income, but also low levels of wealth,

poor health, inadequate housing and limited aspirations. Growing up in a family receiving welfare

is a marker for compromised long-term development.62 Research has shown that young people

(aged 18 to 26 years) are almost twice as likely to need welfare assistance if their parents have a

history of receiving welfare assistance. The extent to which welfare assistance is linked across

generations, however, depends on the nature of those benefits.63

Analysis of transgenerational data indicated that although only one in six young Australians (aged

16 to 18 years) in welfare-reliant families received income support themselves, they were much

more likely to do so than their more advantaged peers.64

58 Compass Housing Services, 2018. A Deep Place Study of Muswellbrook NSW 59 Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, 2019. Living on the Edge: Inquiry into Intergenerational Welfare Dependence 60 Ibid 61 Ibid 62 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, (2019). Australia’s Welfare 2019 Data Insights 63 Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, 2019. Living on the Edge: Inquiry into Intergenerational Welfare Dependence 64 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, (2019). Australia’s Welfare 2019 Data Insights

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Additionally, it has been established that young Australian people in welfare-reliant families

engage in riskier behaviour (though this is reduced with participation in extracurricular activities),

are less likely to reside with and/or receive any financial support from parents, and are more

socially isolated. Each of these factors represents a potential pathway extending socio-economic

disadvantage across generations.65

The intergenerational correlation in welfare recipients varies across payment types, indicating that

some forms of disadvantage may be more easily transferred from parents to children than others.

For example, young adults are significantly more likely to receive a range of welfare payments if

they grow up in sole parent families (compared to two parent families) receiving parenting

payments.66

Within the Upper Hunter, one third of the population (33 per cent) is reported as receiving welfare

assistance. Comparatively, the share of welfare recipients across the Sydney metropolitan area is

5 per cent lower, at 28 per cent. Of the welfare recipients within the Upper Hunter, the LGAs of

Muswellbrook and Singleton are disproportionately affected, with 68 per cent and 42 per cent of

each population respectively receiving welfare assistance.67

The disadvantage or vulnerability of lone parents, specifically females, is the result of the complex

interplay between individual factors including economic characteristics and the effects of the social

and environmental context within the community.

The challenges faced by this cohort in workforce participation leads to increased financial strain

which subsequently creates barriers of accessibility. Lack of access to affordable housing and social

and community services due to their financial position, as well as infrastructure and transport

limitations, can lead to increased mental health issues and feelings of social isolation for this

cohort.

As well as lone parent families living under high rental stress and who are ineligible for social and

affordable housing, those who are eligible still face challenges. Consultations with representatives

of the Upper Hunter region revealed that there are almost 60,000 people on the New South Wales

waitlist for social housing, with an acute need in the region68.

Additionally, this vulnerable cohort is more susceptible to mental health issues, predominantly due

to financial stresses. The high cost of social and community services make accessibility

challenging, along with a lack of infrastructure, social stigmas, and unsuitability of services

creating barriers for this cohort in the Upper Hunter. It was noted during consultations that funded

services provided by social workers and counsellors are only short term, and hence unable to

successfully support those seeking help.

Lone parents within the Upper Hunter region are currently inhibited from participation in the

workforce, creating a human capital gap and resulting in a missed opportunity to strengthen the

economy. As demonstrated, lone parents in the Upper Hunter region are impacted by significant

vulnerabilities which reduce their active participation in the economy which in turn reduces the

opportunity to strengthen the regional economy. In order to support greater economic

participation of this cohort, opportunities such as improvements to the care economy of the region

should be explored (see section 7.5.3 for further details).

65 Ibid 66 Ibid 67 Department of Social Services, March 2020, DSS Payment Demographic Data, Australian Government [online] Available at: <https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/dss-payment-demographic-data> [Accessed July 2020] 68 Tsaousis, C., 2019. Muswellbrook St Vincent de Paul Society raising awareness and funds for homelessness through its annual Sleepout. Hunter Valley News, [online] Available at: <https://www.huntervalleynews.net.au/story/6190402/homelessness-a-problem-in-upper-hunter/> [Accessed 6 August 2020].

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3.4 A relatively advantaged region, with pockets of disadvantage The Upper Hunter faces the challenge to diversify its economy from a position of strength,

including a higher than average labour force participation rate. However, the highly concentrated

economic structure of the region creates vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities disproportionately

impact certain key cohorts, reducing resilience.

While unemployment levels across the Upper Hunter region are comparable to New South Wales,

and median incomes comparable to metropolitan Sydney in some areas, certain cohorts within

certain areas do not enjoy the same levels of benefits as evidenced above. This inequitable

distribution is reflected in the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage (IRSD) of LGAs in

the region69. The ISRD allows for the identification and exploration of the contributing factors of

vulnerability within an economy and can points towards who and where vulnerable cohorts might

be.

Table 3.1: IRSD Scores, 2011 and 2016

LGA 2011 2016

IRSD score State rank (out of 130)

IRSD score State rank (out of 130)

Muswellbrook 959 78 930 27

Upper Hunter Shire 967 86 976 70

Dungog 978 97 989 87

Singleton 1007 116 994 89


As displayed in Table 3.1, there is a significant difference between IRSD scores across LGAs in the

Upper Hunter region, highlighting pockets of disadvantage. For example, comparing Muswellbrook

to Singleton shows a greater proportion of vulnerable cohorts, with a higher number of individuals

receiving welfare payments in Muswellbrook. Additionally, the proportion of unemployed young

people (15 to 24 years) in Muswellbrook is 20.1 per cent, compared to 12.5 per cent in

Singleton.71 Muswellbrook also has a higher proportion of lone parent families, at 12.4 per cent,

compared to 10.1 per cent in Singleton. Additionally, the relative decline in IRSD between 2011

and 2016 can be explained by a major structural shift in industry composition, with the rapid

decline in manufacturing and the waning mining boom from 2013.

The presence of vulnerable cohorts in certain areas of the Upper Hunter region creates pockets of

disadvantage, wherein communities are disproportionately affected by mental health issues, drug

and alcohol abuse, unemployment, social housing and welfare issues. These pockets of

disadvantage amplify the challenges of unemployment disproportionately affecting certain

vulnerable cohorts in the region.

69 The Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD) is an ABS product that ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic disadvantage using a range of information about the economic and social conditions of people and households. The ISRD is based on information from the five-yearly Census of Population and Housing. 70 Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 2033.0.55.001, Census of Population and Housing: Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Australia, 2016 71 Department of Social Services Payment Demographic Data, March 2020, Australian Government

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4 Land use planning

The Upper Hunter region plays a major role in the economy of New South Wales and Australia, and

economic prosperity is sustained mainly by agriculture, mining and energy. Strategic land use

planning is vital to maintaining balanced land use across the region and minimising and mitigating

land use conflicts which may arise from competing industries, population settlements, and demand

for resources. Current constraints and issues affecting the region’s land use planning are:

• water security

• biodiversity

• rehabilitation

• uncertainty around long-term demand for coal

• natural hazards.

4.1 Current land use across the Upper Hunter Agriculture and equine

Agriculture in the Upper Hunter region encompasses a diverse range of production activity across

the sector. Dominating land use in the region as a share of total land (Figure 4.1), agricultural

activities encompass large tracts of grazing land with animal and horticultural uses, including

viticulture. This includes emerging and specialist agricultural activity such as essential oil

production, and specialised cropping for hemp. Agricultural products produced in the region

include:

• animal production and products (equine, beef, pigs, poultry, dairy)

• grapes (viticulture)

• cropping

• turf.72

: Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region

Source: Deloitte

72 NSW Cadastre (2020)

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Over 60 per cent of the land in the Upper Hunter region is involved in agricultural activity from

grazing, growing, storage and associated buildings and infrastructure. Over 860 farms produce a

diverse range of products, with the top three commodities being cattle, milk and poultry.

The current uses of agricultural land are outlined in Table 4.1, detailing types of agricultural use by

land area. This shows that grazing takes up the largest proportion of agricultural land, followed by

cropping and forestry. Intensive animal production and horticulture occupy relatively small

proportions of agricultural land, reflective of both the size of the industry and the land required to

undertake various agricultural activities.

Table 4.1: Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region by category and area

Agricultural use Area (ha)

Grazing native vegetation 641,404

Grazing modified pastures 271,036

Cropping 47,816

Production native forests 41,370

Grazing irrigated modified pastures 18,053

Intensive animal production 7,971

Irrigated perennial horticulture 2,278

Plantation forests 2,027

Perennial horticulture 1,256

Irrigated cropping 269

Seasonal horticulture 74

Irrigated seasonal horticulture 67

Irrigated plantation forestry 65

Irrigated land in transition 24

Intensive horticulture 6

Total agricultural land use 1,033,706

Source: NSW Cadastre (2020)

The region’s equine industry, which is centered in Scone, represents less than one per cent of

total land use in the Upper Hunter, contributing $603 million in value added to Australia’s economy

annually and home to the largest concentration of thoroughbred studs outside of Kentucky in the

United States.73 The industry has established world-class infrastructure which includes the Hunter

Valley Equine Research Centre at Scone. Proximity to airports provide ready access for interstate

and international buyers.

73 Hardy, G and Limoli, P., 2019, Measurement of economic impact of the Australian thoroughbred breeding industry, AgriFutures Australia

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Coal mining

Coal mining within the Upper Hunter is expected to continue to be a significant contributor to

the region’s economy over the short to medium-term. Thermal coal is the primary coal product

mined and exported from the Upper Hunter region, contributing to the Port of Newcastle having

the largest throughput of coal of any port in Australia.74 Significant mining operators in the region

are:

• BHP operating Mt Arthur Coal Mine near Muswellbrook

• Bloomfield Collieries operating Rix's Creek open cut mine near Singleton

• Bengalla Mining Company operating Bengalla mine near Muswellbrook

• Idemitsu operating Muswellbrook open cut

• Malabar Coal, owner of Maxwell and Spur Hill underground mine proposals near

Muswellbrook

• MACH Energy operating Mount Pleasant mine near Muswellbrook

• Peabody operating Wambo mine near Singleton

• Yancoal operating Ashton and Mount Thorley Warkworth mines near Singleton

• Glencore operating Bulga, Hunter Valley Operations, Integra, Liddell, Mangoola, Mount Owen

and Ravensworth mines

: Mining sector land use, Upper Hunter

Source: Deloitte

Mine rehabilitation

Rehabilitation of mining land is a concern across the globe and remains a significant issue within

the Upper Hunter. The stability of the land and effects of open cut mining on surface and ground

water, salt and heavy metal loads has ecological, economic and social implications. With 30 open

voids in the region, rehabilitation is a key theme for future land use. Typical post-mining land uses

include crop production, grazing, conservation and forestry. All current approvals contain

conditions regarding rehabilitation; however, backfilling of voids is not a legal requirement.

74 Minerals Council of Australia (2018) The outlook for coal exports and domestic electricity demand/supply, available at: <http://businesschamber.com.au/NSWBC/media/Hunter/Presentations/G-Evans-Hunter-Valley-Chamber-Business-lunch-presentation-on-23-Feb-2018.pdf>

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In response to community concerns regarding mine rehabilitation, the Upper Hunter Mining

Dialogue was established in 2011, engaging with stakeholders in a collaborative effort to discuss

opportunities for end of life mine uses. The top ten end uses, as identified in the “Beneficial Reuse

of Voids Project” report (November 2019)75 are:

• recreation

• waste management

• hydropower

• bike riding and walking trails

• tourism

• wildlife habitat

• emergency services

• flood mitigation

• theme parks

• aquaculture.

Prior to commencement of mining operations, comprehensive rehabilitation plans are developed to

determine post-mining use, and include objectives developed in consultation with the community.

Mining companies are responsible for the full cost and implementation, with each mine required to

lodge a rehabilitation security deposit to cover estimated costs. The Legacy Mines Program

currently assists in the remediation of legacy sites where no owner can be held responsible.

An analysis of the Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) of 13 open cut mining projects in the

Hunter Valley indicates that 12 of these projects plan to retain at least one final void following

completion of mining activities. Each operation has committed to returning the rest of the land

used for mining to its original condition or similar. However, the final voids left behind will leave a

significant footprint on the environment.

Mining companies are responsible for the costs and implementation of land rehabilitation

plans. Under the current legislation, over 10,500ha of mining land will undergo (or

commence) rehabilitation in the next 20 years across the Upper Hunter region.

There is some, albeit limited, potential to alter rehabilitation requirements should a re-use purpose

mean that full rehabilitation is not required (and indeed could place unnecessary time and financial

constraints on re-use). However, such opportunities have yet to arise on any significant scale and

would, in any event, require individual assessment on a case by case basis.

75 Upper Hunter Mining Dialogue (2019) ‘Beneficial Reuse of Voids Project: Summary Report’ (http://miningdialogue.com.au/getattachment/Dialogue/Latest-Projects/Land-Management/Investigation-of-Possible-Beneficial-Uses-for-Mine/UHMD_Beneficial-Reuse-of-Voids-Project_Summary-Report.pdf)

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Buffer lands

Land use buffers play an important role in reducing the risk of land use conflict and impacts

between incompatible uses through separation of activities. It is important to note that, while

buffers lessen the potential for conflict, these can still occur and will be dependent on individual

circumstances. The most recently available estimates indicate that buffer lands cover an area of

45,533ha across the Upper Hunter region, detailed in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2: Estimated buffer land held by Upper Hunter mining companies, 2018

Use type Area (ha)

Agricultural land - grazing, dairy, cropping, intensive, other 40,990

Residential land 808

Commercial land 71

Recreational land 37

Other land (including vacant land and land not suitable for use) 3,627

Total area of buffer land 45,533

Source: NSW Mining

Acquisition of land by mining companies for buffer zones has driven depopulation in some areas of

the Upper Hunter region, such as Camberwell, Hebden and Wallaby Scrub Road.76 Consistency

of key planning instruments (local strategic planning statements, local land use strategies,

equivalent state documents and state mining regulations) in the region will be important

to retaining land value once mining has ceased.

Mining and land set aside for buffers accounts for nearly half of the rateable land in Muswellbrook,

which has increased the rate load on farmers. A recent landmark court decision ruled that buffer

lands owned by Glencore could not be classified as farmland. This is a decision which could expose

the mining industry to millions of dollars in higher rates and taxes.77

Mining consents

New mining projects and any expansion of existing projects require development consent under

the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (NSW). All new coal mines, mineral sand

mines, proposed mines in environmentally sensitive areas of state significance and mines with

capital investment of more than $30 million are considered state significant development and

require approval from the Minister for Planning. If mining development is approved by the consent

authority, conditions are imposed on the development consent to minimise potential environmental

impacts and optimise the economic and social outcomes for the project.

Stipulation of future land use under mining consents have historically applied on an ad-hoc basis in

the region, such as frequency of new mines approved and length of consent expiries as well as

mitigation strategies for environmental damage and methods for future land use. Current mining

consents with future land use and intended outcomes of those lands (where data is available) are

listed below in Table 4.3.

Today, new coal mining developments require statutory approvals under the Mining Act 1992

(NSW), which sets out the specific conditions with which titleholders must comply. This gives the

Government a range of tools to ensure that rehabilitation is undertaken in a timely manner and in

accordance with agreed commitments. This includes an ability to direct the former holder of a

mining lease to complete rehabilitation works, even after a mining title has been relinquished.

76 Singleton Argus (2017) Singleton’s Villages bear the brunt of Hunter Mining Expansions, accessible at: <https://www.singletonargus.com.au/story/4714230/the-hunters-waste-lands/> 77 S&P Global (2020) Miners face more taxes after Glencore court loss – Sydney Morning Herald, accessible at: <https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/miners-face-more-taxes-after-glencore-court-loss-8211-sydney-morning-herald-59028180>

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Table 4.3: Consents of currently operating mines

Mine LGA Consent Expiry78

Mitigation/future land use and intended outcomes79

Void Area80

Rehab Area81

Ashton Mine Singleton 2023 Void to be filled and area to be covered with natural vegetation (nil

specified land use).

Nil n.d.

Bengalla Mine

Muswellbrook 2039 One final void will be left, and rest of land will be rehabilitated.

270ha 229ha

Bulga OC Mine

Singleton 2039 A single void with a highwall will remain. The surrounding area will be

revegetated (nil specified land use).

550ha 840ha

HVO Mine Singleton 2030 The two voids will be backfilled to form only one void that is isolated from surface water sources (nil specified

land use).

440ha 2,833ha

Integra mine Singleton 2035 Void to be filled and area to be covered with natural vegetation (nil

specified land use).

Nil n.d

Liddell Mine Singleton 2028 Two hydraulically connected voids will remain upon completion of mining. Natural woodland corridors will be restored (nil specified land use).

170ha n.d.

Mangoola Mine and Extension Proposal

Muswellbrook 2029 One void will remain; however, its surface footprint will be minimised to allow for natural habitat and managed

agriculture.

79ha 440ha

Mt Arthur Mine

Muswellbrook 2026 Three voids will remain, and one will be backfilled. The remaining land will

be restored, and the voids will not

impact the other land (nil specified land use).

700ha 1,171ha

Mount Owen Complex

Singleton 2037 Three voids will remain, and the rest of the land will be rehabilitated with

native vegetation and open grasslands (nil specified land use).

313ha 1,263ha

Mount Pleasant

Mine

Muswellbrook 2026 One final void will remain; however, the rest of the land will be converted

back to its pre-mining state (nil specified land use).

n.d. n.d.

Mount Thorley Mine

Singleton 2036 Four of the pits will be backfilled and one void will remain. Other land will be

restored to its former state or with native plants (nil specified land use).

n.d. 1,109ha*

Muswellbrook Coal

Continuation Project

Muswellbrook 2020 Two final voids will remain, and another may be repurposed for waste

management. The rest of the land will be restored (nil specified land use).

n.d. n.d.

Ravensworth Mine

Singleton 2039 Three final voids will remain. Where possible the land will be returned to its

pre-mining state.

180ha 900ha

78 Department of Regional NSW (2020) 79 Individual Environmental Impact Statements/Annual Reports 80 Ibid 81 Lock the Gate Alliance (20180, Mind the Gap, accessible at: <https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lockthegate/pages/5918/attachments/original/1551041721/Mind_the_Gap.pdf?1551041721>

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Mine LGA Consent Expiry78

Mitigation/future land use and intended outcomes79

Void Area80

Rehab Area81

Rix’s Creek Coal Mine Extension

Singleton 2040 One final void will remain. The rest of the land will be converted to pastures

and areas of trees over grass (nil specified land use).

130ha n.d.

Wambo Mine Singleton 2039 Two final voids will remain from the Wambo project. The rest of the land

will be restored with native vegetation (nil specified land use).

260ha 517ha

Warkworth Mine

Singleton 2033 Two final voids will remain. The rest of the land will be restored into native

habitat and wildlife corridors (nil specified land use).

880ha 1,109ha*

*Note: Mount Thorley and Warkworth mine rehabilitation area could not be broken

Source: Deloitte, DRNSW

Benefits of the rehabilitation process

Mining activities are regulated under state-based mining, development and planning legislation. At

the state level, existing regulatory regimes and proposed operational reforms assess and regulate

mine rehabilitation and closure processes. Commonwealth legislation ensures federal matters are

protected. Where mining and rehabilitation activities intersect with Commonwealth matters,

assessment and approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act

1999 (Cth) (EPBC Act) are also required.

For the majority of mines, there are clearly defined objectives for rehabilitation works that are

intended to achieve a range of objectives, including stability and sustainability. General

rehabilitation objectives may vary considerably between sites, or even within a site. Objectives

may involve:

• the restoration or reclamation of the area so that the pre-mining conditions are replicated (75

per cent of mines in Australia use native plant species because the establishment of native

ecosystems gives the greatest chance of self-sustainability)

• rehabilitation to improve the pre-mining conditions (for example, some Hunter Valley

coalmining rehabilitation increases the livestock carrying capacity of the land)

• rehabilitation to a new landform, land capability or final land use (golf courses, wetlands,

plantations, housing subdivisions and recreational playing fields have all been established on

old mining sites).

In some circumstances, lawfully approve environmental considerations may come into conflict with

more recent regional priorities and shifting community attitudes, which have developed since the

consent was originally approved – including the generation of alternate employment opportunities

to replace those lost as a result of the mine closure. In the absence of a regulatory framework and

associated policies which incentivise broader social and economic considerations of the

rehabilitation process, there may be ways to consider land uses for socio-economic purposes

without compromising the environmental outcomes legally required under the consent.

As a result of the current framework and uncertainty, the strategies currently adopted by mining

companies to address and redress land impacts are often ad-hoc and reactive. It is broadly

acknowledged that reform is required, providing enough regulation over the mining sector to

minimise negative impacts and community perceptions. Implementation of regional planning

mechanisms to minimise conflicts may include:

• collaborative inter-governmental decision-making frameworks

• increased role of local governments in decision-making

• monitoring of social impacts of mining, include workforce dynamics and its effect on socio-

demographic factors at a local level, and flow-on effects to housing affordability etc.

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• investigation of the specific needs of local communities, and integration of planning that

includes future needs at a local level

• planning in closer collaboration with community consultation with the aim of targeting local

needs and values

• monitoring and managing the long-term environmental impacts.

Energy

As with the mining sector, the Upper Hunter is endowed with natural resources that will underpin

the future development of the energy sector within the region, with the energy sector at the

forefront of diversification opportunities. Low-carbon energy initiatives, in the form of renewable

energy are being developed, including wind and solar farms.

The Bayswater and Liddell stations at Muswellbrook and Singleton have a capacity of 2,640MW and

2,000MW respectively, and are owned by AGL Macquarie. AGL has recently announced plans to

convert the Liddell site into a giant battery system when the plant shuts in 2022-23. AGL plans to

install 850MW of large-scale batteries across its operations, with a 500MW battery system at

Liddell, with the first phase to be 150MW by 2024. With this vision in mind, a scoping report has

been lodged with DPIE.

: Energy sector land use, Upper Hunter

Source: Deloitte

The recent Million Jobs Plan report by ‘Beyond Zero Emission’ projects that clean energy and

renewable projects will drive job creation, estimating these projects have the potential to support

some 11,500 jobs per year on average across the Greater Hunter region over the next 10 years to

2030.82 This estimate is largely driven by the potential for a clean steel (hydrogen) industry in the

Hunter, as well as a housing retrofit. By contrast, the Clean Energy Council’s recent Renewable

Energy Jobs Australia report more conservatively estimates the average number of jobs supported

by renewable energy projects across NSW over the period to 2035 to be closer to 9,100 jobs per

year. Additionally, the use of clean energy will assist in developing a sustainable reputation for the

Upper Hunter. Rehabilitated land from decommissioned power stations and potentially mining sites

may be a viable option for clean energy and renewable power sites.83

Further, the CSIRO Energy Centre at Newcastle, as well as the Newcastle Institute for Energy and

Resources, are supporting research to address future sustainability challenges of providing

competitive regional energy resources and infrastructure. A key consideration through this

82 Beyond Zero Emissions, The Million Jobs Plan (June 2020) <https://www.smartenergy.org.au/sites/default/files/uploaded-content/website-content/bze-million-jobs-plan_final_web.pdf>. 83 Clean Energy Council, Renewable Energy Jobs in Australia: Stage One (June 2020), report prepared by UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures <https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Renewable-Jobs-Australia-ISF%20F.pdf>

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research is to determine what natural and infrastructure assets are held within the region that

make the Upper Hunter Valley an optimal region for this investment, in comparison to other

regions across the state and nation.

The region is already diversifying its energy generation with low-carbon energy initiatives, in the

form of renewable projects, including a wind farm at Bowmans Creek, east of Muswellbrook, as

well as a solar farm at the former Drayton’s Colliery site.

A notable development includes the potential use of pumped hydro. This involves repurposing

mine voids as water reservoirs to be used as an energy storage system, such as the proposed

system at Bell’s Mountain. During periods of low energy demand, water is pumped from a lower

altitude reservoir to a reservoir based at a higher altitude. As energy demands increase, the water

flows down from the upper reservoir, through a hydro-electric electricity generator to help

supplement the electricity grid, as shown in Figure 4.4. The use of such a system can help mitigate

intermittency issues attributed to renewable energy generation (discussed further in Section

5.2.3).

: AGL pumped hydro diagram

Source: AGL

In addition, a $200 million Kyoto energy park outside Scone (Upper Hunter Energy Park) has been

proposed, featuring 34 wind turbines and 100ha of solar panels with the capacity to power 47,000

homes. Additional clean energy projects in the broader Hunter region are the Vales Point Solar

Project, approved for a $117 million solar energy project on 80haof rehabilitated power station

land, and Summerhill Solar farm at Newcastle.

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Water security

The future availability of water and the allocation mechanism is a critical constraint to growth and

diversification, and therefore future land uses across the Upper Hunter region. The dependence on

water resources for energy generation, mining, agriculture and equine industries, as well as

residential growth in the region highlights that this is commodity may be a limiting factor to both

prosperity and diversification into the future.

More broadly, the Greater Hunter region contains a range of industries and is home to around 1.1

million people, all with different and competing water usage requirements. The region also

contains internationally significant wetlands in the Hunter River estuary. Approaches to managing

water in the Hunter must address the needs of coal mining, power generation, agriculture,

tourism, local communities and the environment.

The NSW Government’s Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy (GHRWS) has been developed to

consider current and future risks to water security and is designed to manage the region’s water

needs over the next 30 years. The plan also considers drought management.

In summary, the GHRWS recommends the following actions:

• connect water supply infrastructure across the greater hunter, so that water can be transferred

to areas of major growth and critical locations in times of drought

• investigate water reuse schemes for industry to increase the amount of water available

• give greater certainty to industries by preparing plans that set out how water will be shared

and managed during severe droughts

• work with AGL to manage its water requirements as it transitions from thermal power stations

to renewables and contributes to the region’s economic diversification.

• improve environmental outcomes by placing less stress on rivers and groundwater during

times of drought.

The GHRWS specifically outlines that drought security is the primary economic risk facing the

Upper Hunter, demonstrating that the severity of droughts has historically been under-estimated

in DPIE’s integrated water and quality simulation model. If a drought similar to that experienced in

the 1940s was to occur – which on average happens once in every 40 years – general security

water allocations would be reduced to zero for approximately 12 years.

Some of the other main risks addressed by the GHRWS include changes in climatic conditions, and

future expectations around rainfall/evaporation, instances of drought, and increasing demands for

environmental flows and potable drinking water. In addition, the GHRWS also suggests that the

closure of Lindell Power Station in 2022 will not significantly mitigate the risk of failure of supply to

water users.

The State Government has adopted the recommendations contained in the GHRWS and

development of the business cases for the proposed pipelines has commenced. The recommended

infrastructure options will require adjustments to water sharing arrangements and will be reviewed

with the community. More specifically, the GHRWS will continue to inform future conversations and

decisions about the direction of water management in the region and should be considered in any

planning for future economic diversification.

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4.2 Land use conflicts Land use in the Upper Hunter region is dominated by agriculture, followed by conservation

initiatives, national parks, and mining, as shown in Chart 4.1.

Chart 4.1: Land uses by category in the Upper Hunter region (share of total land)

Source: NSW Land Use Cadastre (2020)

The co-existence of mining with agriculture and other emerging industries such as eco-tourism

can, and has historically, been difficult to manage. Conflicts arise over competition for land and

other limited resources as well as the impact of mining (for example, noise, visual dis-amenity and

dust) on other activities in adjacent and proximate areas. Further, while residents in mining

communities often express that mining has contributed significantly to the economic development

of their town and is a large employer of local residents, there is a perception that mining sites tend

to rely on a non-resident workforce and negatively impact the local community.84 These concerns

chiefly relate to housing affordability and accessibility as well as strains on local infrastructure and

services,85 although these do not appear to be significant issues across the Upper Hunter as a

whole.

Further conflicts between land uses in the region are also centred on the interaction of major

industries, particularly agriculture (and the diverse requirements of its components) and populated

areas, which require alignment in the approach to management of co-existence of different land

use types.

While documentation of the ongoing conflicts has remained largely absent from statements and

policy documents, The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA) released a position statement in

relation to Upper Hunter land use conflicts in late 2011, and the State Planning Minister

acknowledged ongoing conflicts in the region in 2015.86

Successful land use planning and supporting regulatory frameworks are vital for the ongoing co-

existence, diversification and ultimately growth in prosperity in the Upper Hunter region.

84 Carrington, K., & Pereira, M. (2011) Assessing the social impacts of the resources boom on rural communities. Rural Society, 21(1), 2–20. 85 Ibid 86 26 November 2015, Planning minister warns of ongoing Hunter land conflicts, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-26/planning-minister-warns-of-ongoing-hunter-land-conflicts/6974790

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Management of the needs for agriculture and mining and demand for valuable water resources

must be acknowledged, as both are significant contributors to the region’s economic success.

Future diversification of the Upper Hunter region’s economy is reliant on ensuring effective

monitoring and market responsiveness to enable diverse land use by growing and emerging

sectors.

4.3 Planning frameworks and documents There are several key documents providing a framework for land use planning and management of specific industries in the region, from the State to Local Government levels. In addition, federal mandates also apply such as those set out by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. However, the below list only focuses on State and council documents due to their specificity. It should be noted that while these require strategic alignment, various documents are of different vintages and some are in the process of being updated.

State and regional documents and strategies

Earlier this year, the State Government published the Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and

Mining in NSW, outlining the approach the Government expects to take towards the industry in an

effort to provide greater certainty to explorers, investors, industry stakeholders and communities

about the future of coal mining in the state.

The Strategic Statement acknowledges the important role that coal mining plays within New South

Wales, including in the creation of regional opportunities together with the royalties it generates,

while also outlining the need to be proactive in reducing carbon emissions. The key actions

outlined in the Strategic Statement include:

• improving certainty about where coal mining should occur

• supporting responsible coal production in areas deemed suitable for mining

• addressing community concerns about the impacts of coal mining

• supporting diversification of coal-reliant regional economies to assist with the phase-out of

thermal coal mining.

The Strategic Statement is also supported by a map which outlines the areas in New South Wales

coal regions available and excluded from future coal exploration and mining (Figure 4.5).

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: Map of areas in NSW coal regions available and excluded from future coal exploration and

mining, June 2020

Source: NSW Government (2020), Future of Coal Statement

Additional State Government and regional documents are outlined in Appendix C and highlight the

opportunities and issues that affect the Upper Hunter region; helping to guide the LGA-level

strategic planning statements. Appendix B also contains a selection of LGA documents which have

been developed to address and manage land use planning issues.

The state and regional documents and stratgies provide a framework for the economic pathways to

sustainable growth within the Upper Hunter region.

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4.4 Considerations for current and future land use The core theme of land use conflicts in the Upper Hunter region is further development of a

diverse set of industries operating in the region; it encompasses both environmental and economic

concerns. The prosperity of the region is dependent on industries reliant on the soil and coal, but

these do not co-exist or interact easily. The very landscape that is an enabler is also a limitation,

with water security and quality an ongoing concern, coupled with the susceptibility of the region to

severe drought.

Emerging industries, such as eco-tourism, are also impacted by the dominance of mining and the

visibility of this activity in the landscape. Deficiencies and legacy issues from previous land which

has been left un-rehabilitated also present a limitation for some industries, including tourism more

broadly, as well as the lasting environmental impacts.

Industry sectors have differing employment opportunities and levels, with various levels of

contribution to local, state and national economies. High-value industries such as mining have the

capacity to secure land resources for extraction and/or environmental offsets due to their ability to

outbid other local industries and businesses based on their capital endowments.87 This has the

potential to create discord at a local level, unless effective land use planning is implemented to

ensure equity of opportunity which will ultimately facilitate diversification.

Considerations for future land use planning decisions, including potential conflicts are:

• identifying opportunities to improve the allocation of contested resources, notably water,

across industries to maximise economic, environmental and social outcomes

• ensuring consistent approaches to mining, bio-diversity offsets and the treatment of open-cut

voids in order to facilitate a smooth transition to other land uses after the relinquishment of

former mining sites

• increased monitoring of changing market demand, and responsiveness to planning for

sustainable land uses to safeguard the economy

• increased focus on the biodiversity of ecosystems in the region

• mitigation planning for natural hazards such as bushfires, droughts and flooding

• increased incentives for research and development of sustainable energy sources

• ongoing focus on integration of strategic planning, including regional planning at a more local

level, to ensure a timely and balanced approach to land use management which facilitates

economic prosperity.

Land use conflicts will remain a planning challenge in the Upper Hunter as the region continues to

diversify. Without clear and consistent legislation and regulations, the inherent competition for

resources between different sectors may hamper economic diversification and the sustainability

of industries in the future.

87 Planning Institute of Australia (2011) Land Use Conflict in the Upper Hunter Region, accessible at: <https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/3193>

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Part 2: Scenario

analysis

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5 Priority industries for the

Upper Hunter

5.1 Identifying priority industries Definition of priority

Based on a region’s factors of advantage – including levels of access to physical, human and

natural resources – opportunities for specialisation can be identified to help underpin the optimal

allocation of those resources to those industries that will deliver the best economic, environmental

and social outcomes for the region – the priority industries.

The identification of ‘priority’ industries in this report is based on industries which match the

competitive advantages of the Upper Hunter and align with global and national growth outlooks,

regional endowments and existing industries. The focus is on identifying industries that could

drive sustainable economic growth and employment for the Upper Hunter into the future. The need

to identify industries for future specialisation is critically important to support economic

diversification and resilience in the Upper Hunter, particularly given the prospective closure of coal

mines and coal-fired power stations.

While the Upper Hunter is a highly viable potential location for these industries, it is not exclusively

so. Coordinated action across government, business and industry are therefore needed to ensure

that factors of advantage are not offset by barriers to investment attraction and potential losses to

other regions throughout New South Wales and Australia.

In addition, to the priority industries identified, a broad spectrum of other industries will continue

to exist and are important for the broader economic ecosystem in the Upper Hunter.

It is important to recognise the relationship between the priority industries identified and the

resources (e.g. land, labour and capital) that they share. For example, the development of one

industry increases competition for productive resources and may mean that another industry finds

them increasingly difficult to obtain.

Methodological approach

We used both qualitative and quantitative methods to identify industries that the Upper Hunter

should aim to develop going forward.

The framework used to assess the Upper Hunter region’s relative advantages and industry

opportunities focused on three key dimensions:

1. What does the world want?

2. What is the Upper Hunter good at?

3. What is the current sector size (acknowledging the fact that it is easier to diversify into

industries that repurpose or build on existing capabilities and infrastructure)?

This approach leverages the Regional Australia Institute’s [In]Sight: Australia’s Regional

Competitive Index to provide a detailed understanding of the region’s (current) relative factors of

advantage and weakness.

To understand the Upper Hunter’s sources of relative strength, the region is compared against the

national average across the 10 themes and 71 indicators used in the Regional Australia Institute’s

[In]Sight: Australia’s Regional Competitive Index. This analysis formed the development of a

prosperity map for the Upper Hunter (shown below). The prosperity map indicates mining,

agribusiness, accommodation and food services, and utilities as the industries with the

greatest opportunity and relative strength for the Upper Hunter.

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The prosperity maps also indicate manufacturing, and the transport, postal and warehousing

industries to be of some importance. The role of these industries in the Upper Hunter economy,

however, is primarily one of support, and would likely not otherwise exist at the same scale

without the activity of the mining, agribusiness, and utilities sectors.

It should also be noted that while there is a Defence presence in the Upper Hunter with the

Singleton Military Area establishment, the presence, in terms of permanent and ongoing economic

and employment activity, is small.

: Upper Hunter Prosperity Map

Source: Deloitte, Regional Australia Institute

In order to support the quantitative analysis, stakeholder engagement was undertaken with local

government, regional economic development organisations, business and industry in the Upper

Hunter. To identify prospective priority industries the key themes explored during stakeholder

engagement included:

• What will the Upper Hunter regional economy look like in 10 years?

• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?

• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to the advancement of different industries in

the Upper Hunter?

5.2 What, why and when? As local, national and global demographic and consumption patterns shift, so too will the demand

for products and services. The Upper Hunter has the opportunity to proactively pursue or maintain

diversification opportunities across the industries explored in the remainder of this section.

Coal mining

While coal mining is a significant strength of the Upper Hunter, its future in the region is uncertain.

Mining jobs are exposed to changes in global demand and supply, as well as consent approvals or

extensions.

The international demand for thermal coal (the primary coal product mined and exported from the

Upper Hunter) is expected to remain relatively stable to 2040, despite a recent reduction in

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demand caused by the economic impacts of COVID-19.88 Regional disparities exist in the outlook

for coal with thermal coal demand from the Upper Hunter’s major export partners predicted to

decline slightly to 2040. The following factors will impact thermal coal demand going forward:

• The speed of transition towards renewable energy sources, with coal steadily being replaced in

the energy mix of advanced economies due to environmental policies and competitive

pressures from renewables and, in some markets, natural gas

• The speed and degree of economic growth in developing countries and regions (e.g. India and

South-East Asia), including development of their own domestic coal mining industries

• The degree of global cooperation in response to climate change.

In addition, supply is being influenced by fluctuating commodity prices, access to capital

(exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19), risk of obtaining permits and social license to operate.

The Upper Hunter is vulnerable to global changes in the market for coal, given its demand is

primarily driven by international demand from Asia (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) where

it is mostly used to generate electricity. The Upper Hunter ending or reducing thermal coal exports

whilst current levels of global demand exist would have a minimal impact on global carbon

emissions, given it would likely continue to be sourced from elsewhere.

A smaller proportion of coal is also mined to meet domestic demand, including for the Upper

Hunter coal-fired power stations. Australia’s energy transition (including the closure of Liddell and

Bayswater power stations) will curb domestic demand for the purpose of electricity generation.

The need for the mining sector to repurpose towards a low-carbon future has resulted in

divestments away from thermal coal operations by some of the larger resource firms. For example,

BHP announced it would seek to exit its Mt Arthur mine in Muswellbrook, the largest individual coal

production site in the Upper Hunter region.89

Despite the local, national and global uncertainties around future demand, the coal mining industry

is currently a significant strength for the Upper Hunter with key growth drivers including:

• coal production in the Upper Hunter is export-driven, currently serving demand from developed

and increasingly, developing economies

• coal produced in the Upper Hunter is of high quality, providing a competitive advantage90

• Newcastle Port and other coal infrastructure provides an integrated and efficient supply chain.

A broader advantage of a strong mining industry in the Upper Hunter is the payment of royalties to

the State Government, which contribute to the funding of essential infrastructure and services.91

Consents for eight operating mines in the Upper Hunter still have over 15 years remaining,

however over 10,500ha of mining land will undergo (or commence) rehabilitation over the next 20

years across the Upper Hunter region based on current consents. It is important to note that

mines can be inactive (e.g. put into maintenance) while still having a consent.

Further, consents for seven operating mines will expire in less than 10 years. Of the seven mines,

the HVO and Mount Arthur mines also the greatest production rate, not just in the Hunter Valley

but in the whole of New South Wales. When these mines are no longer operational, it is expected

that around 24% of the current mining workforce will likely need to be transitioned to new

employment opportunities.

Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter mining industry going forward include:

88 NSW Government, Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW, 2020 89 Australian Financial Review (2020) BHP Confirms Coal Exists as Profits Underwhelm, available at: <https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-confirms-coal-exits-as-profits-underwhelm-20200818-p55mov> 90 NSW Minerals Council, 2019 91 NSW Government, Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW, 2020

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Opportunities Challenges

• The economic impacts associated with COVID-19 will place the NSW economy under significant pressure. Therefore, it is likely industries such as mining with a proven track

record of providing employment and investment will be supported through policy and regulation.

• Strong regional infrastructure and mining supply chain that can be leveraged going forward (e.g. rail and port facilities).

• Rehabilitation of mines could support the advancement of other investments/diversification (e.g. tourism, waste management, hydropower and agriculture). However, rehabilitation of mines can take as long as 10-15 years which may

delay investment/diversification of other industries.

• The process of rehabilitating and remediating mines could generate a range of skilled and unskilled jobs. The number of jobs this process generates would be smaller, and lower value, than mining activity currently generates.

• Mining Equipment, Technology and Services (METS) - Given the current prevalence of mining in the region and close proximity to the University of Newcastle which launched a Doctoral Training Centre (DTC) in 2018

(focused on supporting the METS sector through delivering innovative and transformational technologies and developing skilled innovators of the future) the region has favourable characteristics for collaboration that could allow the capabilities of METS to be tested, piloted and showcased.

• Managing land use conflicts and the rehabilitation of mining land in a manner that mitigates the long-term effects on soil, water and air.

• Climate change, leading to reduced rainfall and increasing temperatures, may be barriers to achieving successful mine rehabilitation.

• The cumulative environmental impacts of mining operations, including mining dust reducing air quality have caused significant issues in the Upper Hunter.

• The industries that increasingly replace mining will struggle to provide similar employment and income levels to what the mining industry currently provides, leading to reduced spending in the community and greater

likelihood of workers leaving the region. • Uncertainty surrounding forecast global

demand for coal, and Australian policy settings.

• Ensuring a ‘just transition’ (e.g. focusing on employment and re-training during the gradual transition away from mining).

• Increasingly mining processes are being automated which involves the removal of human labour from the mining process. Additionally, automation in the mining industry may increase the opportunity for remote

operation which could potentially shift employment opportunities from mining sites (typically in regional communities) to metropolitan areas.

Agribusiness

Agribusiness92 is expected to continue to contribute significantly to the national economy, growing

at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent over the next five years to 2024-25.93

New South Wales and the Upper Hunter form an important part of Australia’s large and diverse

agribusiness sector. In 2018-19, for example, the state’s agribusiness industries contributed 22

per cent (or $9 billion) in value add to Australia’s agricultural sector, representing around 1.5 per

cent of NSW’s gross state product (GRP). Specifically, the Upper Hunter has an established

agricultural sector with primary production across a diverse range of commodities. In 2018-19, the

key commodities by value of production included:

• $125m, beef/sheep livestock for slaughter

• $70m, poultry for slaughter and eggs

• $60m, livestock for dairy

• $10m, hay crop farming

• $6m, nurseries and cultivated turf

• $5m, fruit for wine production.94

92 Agribusiness is defined as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors, corresponding with the ABS ANZSIC (1-digit) and National Accounts data. This excludes food processing and manufacturing industry sectors closely aligned with agricultural production. 93 Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2020 94 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Value of Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2018 (Catalogue No. 7503.0)

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Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter agribusiness industry going forward include:


• Opportunity for the region to focus on niche, high quality, high-value, commodities (as has

been achieved with equine). • Potential for synergies within the agricultural

sector across different areas of primary production, as well as across different industry sectors within the region.

• Build a critical mass of primary production and develop industry clusters around key commodities.

• Opportunity for the region to increasingly utilise AgTech (e.g. sensors, drones and cloud computing) to improve agricultural productivity (e.g. better collection and analysis of real time

data). The uptake and investment in AgTech, however, will likely be dependent on the quality and ubiquity of the digital infrastructure in the region.

• Shift up the production value-chain and capture a greater share of the downstream manufacturing processes (e.g. food processing, manufacturing and packaging, and transport and distribution).95

• Uncertainty around land use and environmental conflicts (including water quality

and access rights) with the mining sector, but also with heavy industry and urban development, are regularly reported by agribusiness stakeholders as key risks to the sector in the Upper Hunter. Downside risks include: o Reputational damage to the region’s

‘clean, green’ image. o Deterrent to private and foreign direct

investment in the sector. o Increased land values due to competing

high-value land uses will put pressure on

low-value agricultural production. o Climate change, increased frequency of

natural disaster events (fire and drought), and water scarcity pose long-term external challenges to the sector.

Equine

Australia’s thoroughbred breeding industry is one of the largest and most reputable in the world –

second only in size to the United States. In 2016-17, Australia’s thoroughbred breeding industry is

estimated to have generated approximately $934 million worth of direct expenditure, contributing

$1.16 billion in (direct and indirect) value add to the national economy.96 The equine industry also

contributed approximately $121 million to Australia’s international exports, exporting bloodstock

for racing purposes to key destination countries such as Hong Kong ($57 million), Singapore ($23

million) and New Zealand ($15 million).97

The equine industry in Australia is estimated to comprise of around 660 stud farms, primarily

concentrated in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. Linked to these farms is a complex

supply chain of ancillary industries, with large shares of expenditure flowing to feed suppliers and

growers (28 per cent), high skill veterinary services (21 per cent), breeding equipment, repairs

and maintenance (25 per cent), transport services (9 per cent), and wages (6 per cent).98

95 NSW Government (2017), Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Project: Action Plan, Upper Hunter Diversification Task Group 96 Hardy, G. & Limoli, P. (2019), Measurement of economic impact of the thoroughbred breeding industry, report prepared for AgriFutures Australia 97 Ibid. 98 Ibid.

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Australia’s thoroughbred breeding and farming services industry revenue is expected to grow at an

average annualised rate of 1.8 per cent over the next five years to reach $1.4 billion by 2024-25.99

However several factors have the potential to impact industry growth going forward. These

include:

• the impacts and costs from climate change and climate variation

• fluctuations in the geopolitical situation that impact on global trade and key export markets,

such as Hong Kong.

• the impacts associated with COVID-19 restricting entry to temporary migrant workers, as well

as limiting access to interstate workers, on which the sector is partially dependent.

The equine industry has been identified as a priority given the Upper Hunter has an ideal climate

for thoroughbred breeding and farming and currently sits at the heart of Australia’s equine

industry with the highest concentration of stud farms (approx. 227) and breeding production in

Australia.100 In 2016-17, the Upper Hunter equine industry accounted for just over $600 million or

52 per cent of the national total economic value add, generating 3,358 jobs in the region.101 The

equine industry in the Upper Hunter forms a complex industry cluster, supported by veterinarian

science and medical services.

Consultations with the equine industry in the Upper Hunter also revealed the industry’s reliance on

skilled migrant labour, with reports that the majority of the region’s current workforce is sourced

from overseas, particularly Ireland. This represents a skills gap issue, for which Training Services

NSW has developed a workforce plan, with implementation currently underway.

Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter equine industry going forward include:


• Equine industry cluster of ancillary and supply-chain industries, including: o research and development, veterinary

scientific and medical services o equipment and maintenance, sales, and

transport services o Livestock feed production and Lucerne

hay crop farming o Equine-related tourism o Demand for high-skill, high value-add

workers and skilled agribusiness labour.

• Land use conflicts between the equine and mining industries in the Upper Hunter is viewed by equine industry stakeholders as a

major deterrent to private investment.102 • Climate change and threats to water quality

and availability from mining and other heavy industry activity.

• Increased competition in international markets. Factors that could potentially lead to this include increasing costs of production, a high Australian dollar, declining quality of thoroughbreds and risks of disease.

• Attracting employees to the equine industry in the region, particularly for entry-level positions where the wages are not

competitive with those in mining industry.

99 Ibid. 100 NSW Government (2013), Upper Hunter Region Equine Profile, Factsheet No. 6, Department of Primary Industries 101 Hardy, G. & Limoli, P. (2019), Measurement of economic impact of the thoroughbred breeding industry, report prepared for AgriFutures Australia 102 NSW Government (2018), Hunter Regional Economic Development Strategy: 2018-2022

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Energy

The energy sector is undergoing a period of significant transition globally in response to changing

community preferences, environmental policies and climatic conditions in the face of climate

change.

The International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook ‘stated policies scenario’103 forecasts global

energy demand to rise by 1 per cent annually to 2040. Low-carbon sources, led by solar

photovoltaic (PV), are anticipated to supply more than half of this growth, and natural gas,

boosted by rising trade in LNG, to account for another third. Additionally, oil demand is forecast to

flatten out in the 2030s.104

Australia’s utility sector output is set to grow, but below average for the economy, at 1.4 per cent

annually over the next 10 years and renewable energy is expected to become an increasingly large

part of Australia’s energy mix going forward.105

Currently, the Upper Hunter region contributes 4,690MW (or around 35 per cent of the state’s

power needs) through the Liddell and Bayswater coalfired power stations, as well as the Hunter

Valley gas turbines. Despite the prospective closure of these coal-fired power stations, the energy

industry should remain a priority in the region given the proposed development of numerous

renewable projects such as Bowmans Creek Wind Farm, Liverpool Range Wind Farm, Maxwell

Solar Farm and Bells Mountain Pumped Hydro. Additionally, AGL has recently announced plans for

a 500MW battery at Liddell, a site that already has valuable transmission connection into the

grid.106 Battery storage is critical to enhance system flexibility and support the integration of

renewables into the network.

The deployment of renewable generation technology will increasingly occur in many regions

throughout Australia, however current growth drivers for the energy industry in the Upper Hunter

include:

• existing transmission network infrastructure

• strong research linkages with the formation of partnerships and collaborations in the renewable

energy sector (Hunter Energy Transition Alliance and Newcastle Institute for Energy and

Resources (NEIR)).107

Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter energy industry going forward include

(additional opportunities/challenges relating to specific energy subsectors are explored further

below):


• Repurposing and redevelopment at Liddell and Bayswater sites and rehabilitated mine sites.

• Utilising existing transmission infrastructure for new renewable energy developments in the region.

• Helping residents to implement energy efficiency measures. Lowering the cost of energy consumption to households can provide flow-on benefits to the region’s economy through allowing redirected spending towards other goods and services. Additional residential solar and battery prices are

becoming increasingly affordable for consumers.

• Limited international agreement on decarbonisation. The 2021 United Nations Climate Conference in Glasgow could allow for increased global commitment and coordination on future climate action.

• Ensuring a ‘just transition’ (e.g. focusing on employment and retraining during the energy transition to support communities such as the Upper Hunter who are heavily reliant on coal mining and generation).

• Significant and unexpected delays in grid connection, which increases investment risk.

103 The ‘stated policies scenario’ incorporates policy intentions and targets that have already been announced. 104 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2019 105 Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2020 106 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2020 107 Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan, 2018

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Hydro and Battery Energy Technologies

The influx of intermittent renewable generation (solar and wind) in the market can create

challenges in managing the security of the power system, providing opportunities to deploy grid-

scale batteries which have only recently started to become commercially viable in Australia.

Currently in the NEM, six utility scale batteries are operating (all within South Australia and

Victoria). This number is expected to increase going forward as revenue streams for batteries

continue to evolve.

Hydroelectricity currently produces approximately five to seven per cent of Australia’s total

electricity supply, with over 100 operating hydroelectric power stations.108 Three major pumped

hydro systems are also connected to the grid, pumped hydro uses water reservoirs as a way of

storing energy.

Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter regarding the uptake of these energy

technologies going forward include:


• Ability to leverage existing grid access and current industry skills in the region.

• Improving commercial attractiveness and revenue streams for batteries.

• Decommissioned mining sites present an opportunity for water reservoirs sites and are

especially viable for pumped hydro if two bodies of water can be stored at different elevations.

• Heighted uncertainty surrounding project financing due to COVID-19 – potentially causing project delays and cancellations.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen is the most prevalent common chemical in the universe and has many uses such as fuel

for transport, heating, storing electricity and as a raw material in industrial processes. It can be

produced using renewable energy. The Australian hydrogen industry is still in its infancy, with a

number of feasibility and planning studies occurring. Most notably, the National Hydrogen Strategy

(2019)109 has been developed to drive the growth of a clean, innovative and safe Australian

Hydrogen Industry through providing a pathway for coordinated investment.

The growing international and domestic interest in the hydrogen sector is underpinned by the

following trends:

• cost of renewables – decline in the cost of wind and solar photovoltaic (pv) generation in

recent years has opened the prospect of large-scale production of ‘green’ hydrogen

• industrial decarbonisation – need for industry, heavy transport and hard to abate sectors to

examine and assess decarbonisation strategies

• gas infrastructure decarbonisation – hydrogen can be transported using existing gas

infrastructure through blending with limited adaptation and costs

• export opportunity – international demand for hydrogen as a fuel source has potential in the

medium to long term.110

Current annual global demand for hydrogen is forecast to be approximately 70 Million tonnes per

annum (Mtpa). The forecasted figures for 2030 range from an additional 2.1 Mtpa to 8.8 Mtpa.111

Recent analysis from Deloitte shows that domestic production of hydrogen could range from as

high as 19.8 Mt by 2050 (where all aspects of industry development are favourable for hydrogen),

108 Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Hydropower and Pumped Hydro Energy Storage, 2020. 109 COAG Energy Council, Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, 2019 110 Deloitte Australian and Global Hydrogen Demand Growth Scenario Analysis, November 2019 111 Ibid.

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to as low as 1.4 Mt in a scenario where there is rapid technological development in

electrification.112

The development of a hydrogen industry is subject to a longer time horizon compared to a number

of the other industries identified as potential priorities in the region. The Upper Hunter is

positioned to take advantage of a ‘hydrogen-based future’, with some favourable characteristics to

attract investment in hydrogen – such as its existing industry mix, proximity to established energy

infrastructure and nearby deep-water port facilities.

However, all decisions to act in an uncertain and largely undeveloped industry come with the need

to accept increased risk (e.g. technical, finance, stranded asset and safety). Current risks include

policy and technology uncertainty and cost effectiveness compared to other energy technologies.

Opportunities and challenges in the development of a hydrogen industry in the Upper Hunter

include:


• Facilitate the creation of industrial hubs with multiple uses and have local governments provide foundation loads through some vehicle usage.

• Proximity to key infrastructure assets: o Utilising the proposed Hunter Gas

Pipeline for ‘pipeline blending’, reducing the cost of building dedicated hydrogen

pipelines. o Port of Newcastle – deep water port

necessary to export large volumes of hydrogen.

o Electricity transmission network infrastructure.

• Significant potential relating to the demand of hydrogen as a fuel source by economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea (Australia already has a strong existing trade relationship with these nations).

• Large land area, increasing renewable energy

sources and water to support new hydrogen developments.

• ‘Green steel’ using hydrogen113 instead of coal to transform iron ore to iron metal.

• The ability of hydrogen to replace other technologies and processes will be dependent on its cost effectiveness.

• Regulations, standards and acceptance will also be a hurdle for the industry in Australia as they are currently in their infancy.

• Policy and technology uncertainty. • Significant water usage required as a

feedstock.

Bioenergy

Bioenergy is a type of renewable energy that requires biomass (organic renewable materials) to

produce heat, electricity, biogas and liquid fuels. Bioenergy technology is well developed globally

(especially throughout Europe where it represents roughly 10 per cent of total energy

consumption114) and is beginning to play an increasing role in Australia – contributing

approximately 1.4 per cent of Australia’s total electricity generation by fuel type in 2018.115

The potential for bioenergy has been recognised by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency

(ARENA) which is currently in the process of developing a ‘Bioenergy Roadmap’ to inform

investment and policy decisions in Australia into the future. This roadmap will be crucial to inform

112 Ibid. 113 Grattan Institute, ‘Start with Steel’, May 2020 114 Australian Renewable Energy Agency, ‘Bioenergy and energy from waste’, 2020 115 Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Australian Energy Update 2019, Australian Government

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the next series of investment and policy decisions in the bioenergy sector in Australia and should

be considered within the Upper Hunter once it has been released.

Similar to hydrogen, the development of a bioenergy industry in the Upper Hunter would be a

longer-term prospect. The Upper Hunter is already taking steps to explore the capabilities of

bioenergy. This is demonstrated by the recent funding ($4.6 million) of the Hunter Pilot Biorefinery

by the State Government under the Growing Local Economies Fund. However, it should be noted

that the Upper Hunter does not have unique characteristics which would make it an obvious region

to develop a bioenergy industry in comparison to other regions across Australia. Additionally,

throughout the consultations associated with this project, multiple stakeholders questioned the

sustainability and availability of feedstocks in the region, which is a necessity for a sustainable

bioenergy industry.

Opportunities and challenges in the development of a Bioenergy industry in the Upper Hunter

include:


• The Upper Hunter region currently produces various feedstocks that can be used for bioenergy, such as municipal waste and waste streams from the agricultural and forestry sectors.

• Bioenergy (fuels or electricity) are a

complement to viticulture and other agribusiness.

• Increasing interest in the capabilities of a ‘circular economy’ – allows for greater utilisation of waste.

• Close proximity to the University of Newcastle makes the Upper Hunter a favourable location for bioenergy ‘trials’ to test the capabilities of bioenergy in Australia.

• Industry still in its ‘infancy’ in Australia, with ARENA’s Bioenergy Roadmap likely to identify the role of the sector and the necessary investment and policy decisions going forward.

• Different industry stakeholders currently pushing specific agendas.

• Stakeholder engagement flagged scepticism around the long-term viability of feedstocks in the Upper Hunter. Sustainable feedstocks and strong governance will be critical for the industries development.

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Tourism

Tourism is facilitated by both domestic and international visitors and supports employment and

economic activity across a range of sectors including accommodation and food services.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism was a fast-growing industry globally and in Australia.

International tourist arrivals grew by 4 per cent in 2019 to reach 1.5 billion worldwide, although

growth slowed compared to previous years due to uncertainty surrounding Brexit, geopolitical and

trade tensions, and slowing economic growth.116 In Australia, international tourist arrivals

increased by 2 per cent in 2019 to 8.7 million, while domestic overnight trips increased by 12 per

cent to 117.4 million.117

Regional dispersal has often been cited as a challenge in attracting a significant portion of

international visitors. The Hunter region is a common day-trip for international visitors and is one

of the top five regional destinations for both domestic and international leisure visitors. However,

this is inclusive of the Hunter Valley, with travel patterns suggesting most travel is within the

Lower Hunter rather than Upper Hunter region.118 Specifically, the key drawcards for the Upper

Hunter include national parks, equine activities, food and wine, and heritage. Increasing visitation

to the Upper Hunter should be a priority with general recommendations to do so including

educating visitors about local offerings, demystifying travel time and distances, helping to put the

pieces of the journey together.

COVID-19 led to a complete shutdown of Australia’s tourism sector in March 2020. The pathway to

reopening remains relatively uncertain. While some domestic (mostly intrastate) tourism has

recommenced, interstate travel is sluggish as many borders remain closed and the COVID-19

recovery remains uncertain.

Recognising that the tourism industry is subject to uncertainty in the short term, the following

opportunities and challenges for Upper Hunter tourism take a medium to long term (5-10 year)

view.


• Potential for the region to define its offering and reason for visit by leveraging its natural advantages (significant advertising investment likely required).

• Potential to connect tourism to existing industries (e.g. farm stays, winery stays).

• Close proximity to Newcastle airport.

• Lack of tourism drivers (with the exception of equine tourism) compared to nearby regions such as unique attractions or experiences.

• Long distance from Sydney, a key source of visitation in terms of local population and international travellers, with car the main transport mode.

• Low capacity of tourism infrastructure (e.g. limited accommodation catering to different market segments).

116 United Nations World Tourism Organisation, World Tourism Barometer, 2020 117 Tourism Research Australia, National visitor survey results, 2020 118 Deloitte Access Economics, ‘Understanding visitor regional dispersal in Australia’, 2019

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6 Developing a ‘roadmap’ for

the future

The economic future of the Upper Hunter is highly uncertain

and could follow a number of different pathways based on

global, national and local trends and disrupters. A scenario-

based approach to understanding these potential pathways is a

highly effective framework when considering uncertainty.

6.1 A scenario-based approach As explored in earlier chapters, the current economic and social prosperity of the Upper Hunter is

largely being determined by the mining and agribusiness sectors. The region's future will be

determined by a number of factors, including:

• The extent to which it can evolve and adapt, responding to global and domestic market

conditions, economic policies and geopolitical developments.

• How it manages competition for land, water and environmental resources and the

associated trade-offs.

• How it supports industry with economic and social infrastructure.

• How it supports and promotes active participation of its residents in the community and

employment to achieve inclusive growth.

It is not possible to forecast with any certainty the most likely long-term future of the region’s key

industries – in terms of economic output, industry size, and employment. However, based on

global trends the transition away from mining non-renewable resources is – at some point in the

future – inevitable. While there remain substantial resources in the ground, and the high quality of

coal from the region may delay that transition relative to other regions, it will happen eventually.

While economic and industry forecasts improve the capacity for considered planning and allow for

better decision-making, usually these represent a best estimate of the most likely future and any

degree of confidence declines significantly with an increase in time over the period of a forecast.

As the COVID-19 global pandemic has demonstrated, highly unlikely and unimagined events do

occur and, as a result, forecasts and outlooks can change quickly.

This report therefore uses a scenario-based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’, with a

corresponding proposed set of actions for the region aligning with each scenario. The aim of this

approach is to broadly identify a set of possible futures from across a spectrum and provide an

indicative understanding about what these futures might look like. This includes identifying the

factors and growth drivers that will likely determine these futures and the potential implications for

the Upper Hunter’s current key industry sectors.

We have chosen three scenarios that best represent what might occur in the Upper Hunter, under

varying circumstances. We have not probability-weighted these scenarios, given the inherent

uncertainty of any of future economic trends ensuing exactly as forecast. Rather, the scenarios will

allow for the actual pathway to be signposted, and appropriate responses enacted.

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The three scenarios considered for the purpose of this report are:

• Limited change – coal mining continues to dominate the economic landscape of the region,

with current investment trends and trade-offs around land, water, and environmental

constraints favouring the mining sector over other sectors, such as agribusiness and tourism.

As a result, the current economic and industrial composition of the region is maintained over

the short to medium-term, delaying a transition or diversification away from mining for

another 20 to 30 years.

• Transition – the economic and industrial composition of the region begins to shift and

diversify over the short to medium-term, as coal mining begins the process of a long-run ‘wind

down’ and there is an concerted transition favouring the growth of other existing and emerging

industry sectors.

• Shock – coal mining in the region unexpectedly experiences a sharp and permanent

contraction, resulting in a rapid and disruptive shift in the economic and industrial composition

of the economy over the medium-term. Over the longer term, the economy shrinks as

policymakers respond reactively (rather than proactively), growth in other existing and

emerging industries fails to materialise, and people leave the Upper Hunter region in response

to limited employment opportunities and outcomes.

The following provides a brief description for each scenario, providing a lens for the roadmap and

the formulation of a potential set of actions to help policymakers either avoid or better prepare for

these imagined scenarios.

The following also details a set of potential indicators and measure for use by policymakers to help

monitor and identify the economic conditions and potential implications of each scenario.

6.2 Limited change scenario In this scenario, the current economic and industrial composition of the Upper Hunter economy is

generally maintained, and coal mining continues to dominate the region’s economic

landscape for the next 20 to30 years as existing mines expand or extend their lifespan, and

mining consents are renewed and new ones approved. While there may be short-term fluctuations

in the supply and/or demand for coal – such as in response to COVID-19 – these are considered to

be cyclical in nature rather than structural.

The maintenance of mining being the key industry within the Upper Hunter would be supported

by ongoing global demand for thermal coal, particularly from emerging economies.119 In

addition, there is continued inaction on climate change and related policies both domestically

and globally – and limited investment in low-emission technologies and renewables.

In turn, it is reasonable to assume that mining would continue to employ a significant

portion of the local labour force as the industry maintains its dominance within the

region. Continued mining investment would generate additional construction jobs, as well as

potential growth in auxiliary service and supply chain industries, such as the METS sector.

However, expected technological advances in the mining sector over the coming decades,

combined with falls in the costs of technologies, may result in a lower rate of jobs growth than

current trends as mining companies increasingly automate production processes. This is also likely

to shift the skills-demand profile of miners towards employing a larger share of highly skilled and

‘tech savvy’ workers.

: Limited change scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining

119 NSW Government (2020) ‘Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW’

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Implications for the Upper Hunter

Under the limited change scenario, the implications of ongoing mining activity for the Upper

Hunter are mixed. While employment in mining is likely to be sustained over the longer term,

the mix of job opportunities in mining will likely shift as investment in automation

technologies is expected to create demand for differently skilled workers to those that

exist currently. This will likely place many existing workers at a disadvantage, while favouring

the next generation of workers should the relevant training and education opportunities be

available.

Further, the automation of mine sites has the potential to enable many current jobs to be

undertaken remotely, allowing for the relocation of jobs to remote operations centres and reducing

the need for workers at mine sites. Again, this will likely disadvantage the existing Upper Hunter

workforce, and may result in the Upper Hunter not benefiting from many of the new skilled

employment opportunities created by mining.

The loss of job opportunities for low and unskilled workers in mining, however, may be

offset by increases in labour demand in industries associated with the ongoing existence of a

strong mining industry within the region, such as construction and METS industries. Irrespective,

this scenario will likely call for additional retraining and upskilling support to assist displaced

mining and agribusiness workers gain employment in new occupations.

The continued dominance of mining is also likely to constrain the growth of other industry

sectors in the Upper Hunter, limiting economic and industrial diversification of the region. This is

expected to involve trade-offs in the allocation of land, water and environmental resources,

increasing the competitive pressures for these resources on other industry sectors – specifically

agribusiness and industries associated with agricultural production, such as food manufacturing,

transport and distribution, equipment manufacturing, and commercial and professional services.

These factors will further diminish the availability of employment opportunities for low, unskilled

and entry-level workers.

A further downside risk from the maintenance of mining is the potential reputational damage

to the region’s ‘clean and green’ image. This has the potential to further adversely affect the

growth opportunities in agribusiness, as well as in the tourism services sector. Health risks

associated with increased fugitive carbon emission and coal dust pollution associated with mining

activity also has the potential to adversely affect the region’s population growth – as health

concerns drive away existing residents and deter new ones.

In this scenario, the same drivers determining the demand for coal will also likely curtail the future

demand for renewables. As a result, the potential for the region to leverage the remaining and

underutilised electrical transmissions infrastructure assets (following the planned closure of the

Liddell and Bayswater coal fired power stations) for new renewable energy generation or

storage projects are limited.

6.3 Transition scenario In this scenario, coal mining operations in the Upper Hunter begin to gradually ‘wind

down’ over a 10 to 20 year period, resulting in an orderly and coordinated shift in the industrial

composition towards a diversified economy favouring agribusiness, tourism and other emerging

industry sectors.

This scenario is based on the current expectation of the expiration of mining consents in the region

(as illustrated in Chart 6.1), as well a continuation of current trends driving the transition away

from coal mining. These include:

• decreasing global demand for thermal coal for energy

• increased investment and supply of lower cost renewable energy

• growing international consensus on climate change and the implementation of greenhouse

gas emission abatement targets, and the introduction of carbon pricing.

The decline in direct employment in coal mining in the Upper Hunter may also be accelerated by

the adoption of automation technologies (as discussed in the Limited Change scenario).

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Chart 6.1: Indicative (FTE) employment loss estimates based on mine closures at consent expiry or

extension, as at June 2020

Source: Deloitte, Coal Services (FTE employment estimates), DRNSW (consent expiry estimates)

Note: Estimates are derived from current employment numbers at Upper Hunter mine sites as at June 2020. These estimates

should be treated as indicative and do not consider future cyclicality of the mining sector; future trends that might increase or

decrease employment intensity (e.g. automation); or expansion/extension of existing mine sites or the development of new

ones. The FTE employment figures also take in the period of COVID-19 and may be lower than otherwise due to lower

international demand for thermal coal experienced during this period.


In response to prevailing forces detailed under this scenario, coal mining in the Upper Hunter is

expected to slowly withdraw and shrink both in terms of its contribution to local economic output

and employment, as price and quantity demanded falls and marginal production costs increase. In

turn, the gradual transition away from mining is expected to be replaced by several other

industry sectors.

As mining winds down, competitive pressures from mining on other industries for land use, water,

and environmental resource allocations would be expected to ease. Reductions in the cost of these

resources to other industries would result in the reallocation of these resources to their next

highest value use – which may include agricultural purposes such as equine, livestock, poultry,

cropping, and horticultural production. Over the medium to longer term, former buffer lands

could be used to support agriculture, while rehabilitated mining lands could be used to

support the development of other industries – such as biofuel energy generators or

renewable energy hydro or battery storage facilities.

The process of rehabilitation and remediating mine sites may also create another source of

employment for construction industry jobs, benefitting low and unskilled workers. The

rehabilitation process can take anywhere between five and ten years. As a result, a gradual

closure of mines across the region could generate a small number of construction jobs

for up to two decades, together with other occupations involved in the rehabilitation of mine sites,

such as geotechnical engineers, soil scientists and revegetation experts. There may also be scope

to work closely with the Indigenous community through the rehabilitation of mine sites.

The growth of an increasingly diverse agricultural sector is also likely to increase the value

proposition of the region to other auxiliary and complementary industry sectors. These include

those downstream in the agribusiness supply-chain – such as food and beverage manufacturing,

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transport and distribution, equipment manufacturing, and commercial and professional services,

and the tourism services sector.

The gradual withdrawal of mining would lower the health risks from air pollution and improve the

reputational image of the region. This has the potential to further enhance tourism opportunities

and visitations to the region, as well as attract new residents, particularly young families. The

increased and diverse opportunities for new businesses, coupled with increased housing

affordability and other lifestyle factors are likely to influence the decisions of young families to

locate to the Upper Hunter.

A downside risk from the withdrawal of mining from the region is the significant loss of high-

income jobs. This is likely to have a disruptive effect on the lives of many local residents. While a

gradual withdrawal of mining would alleviate this pressure and allow time for the local labour

market to digest an increased supply of similarly skilled workers, there may be some who chose to

relocate outside of the Upper Hunter, particularly as many of the new jobs available in other

industries are unlikely to pay the high salaries former mine workers once commanded. For former

mine workers who choose to stay and work in other industries, this will require a recalibration of

their employment expectations and possibly a reduction in their standard of living. There are also

likely to be implications for the broader local economy, with a significant portion of the population

having less disposable income to spend on consumption (e.g. retail trade) within the region.

Critical to the success of this transition will involve re-tooling the education system locally to

prepare the next generation of young workers for an economy where mining plays a minor role, as

well as supporting mid-career and older mining workers to reskill, find an alternate occupational

pathway, or establish a business of their own. Opportunities for action around education and

skilling are explored further in section 7.4.

An upside risk for many in the region from the gradual rebalancing and diversification of the

economy is the likely fall in income inequality across industries. This has the potential to reduce

living costs, housing affordability and other social pressures that typically accompany such

inequality. However, it is also likely to result in lower house prices across the region, lowering the

wealth of current homeowners, adversely affecting their mortgage debt obligations and planned

savings for retirements.

: Transition scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining

6.4 Shock scenario In this scenario, the Upper Hunter economy unexpectedly experiences a sharp and

permanent contraction due to the sudden withdrawal of coal mining. This results in a rapid

and disruptive shift in the economic and industrial composition of the economy over the medium-

term. Given the unexpected pace of the contraction, the policies and programs implemented to

assist the region in the transition process are reactive rather than proactive, and over the long-

term may provide sub-optimal outcomes. Growth of the other existing and emerging

industries fails to materialise to fill the gaps in the economy, and people relocate away from

the Upper Hunter in response to limited employment opportunities and outcomes.

The premise for this scenario is a rapid structural shift affecting global demand for thermal

coal or some other ‘black swan’ event permanently disrupting coal mining activities in the Upper

Hunter. Possible reasons for such a sharp decline could include:

• accelerated global action on climate change and emissions reduction

• the sudden emergence of a new and cheap source of energy through technological

breakthrough

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• a sudden and unexpected spike in mining production costs in Australia

• an unexpected and catastrophic natural disaster event permanently affecting mining

infrastructure in the Upper Hunter.


Under this scenario, coal mining is expected to rapidly withdraw from the Upper Hunter

economy over a five to ten year period. In the short run, there would be a mass

displacement of workers and high unemployment due to a sluggish response from other

industry sectors in the economy.

The rapid withdrawal of mining would be expected to disrupt the livelihoods of former mining

workers. In turn, there is a risk of rapid depopulation across the region as there is an exodus of

residents leaving the region in pursuit of employment opportunities, especially younger residents

and families with children. Such an exodus would further exacerbate the economic downturn in the

region, putting downward pressure on housing prices, lowering the household wealth of

homeowners in the region.

After a period of hardship, however, the local economy and unemployment would be expected to

stabilise, albeit at a much small size in terms of gross regional product (GRP) and employment. As

in the previous scenario, the withdrawal of mining would result in the reallocation of land, water,

and environmental resources for its next highest value use – which may include agricultural

purposes such as equine, livestock, poultry, cropping, and horticultural production. The process of

rehabilitation and remediation of mine sites is also likely to create additional construction jobs, and

likely to benefit workers displaced from mining. Further, there will likely be opportunities arising

from new investments in renewable energy storage projects leveraging the region’s underutilised

electrical transmission infrastructure. In this scenario, however, the growth of other industry

sectors over the longer term is expected to be muted and, in comparison to the Transition

scenario, the employment opportunities for displaced mining workers remain fewer and less

attractive.

: Shock scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining

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6.5 Monitoring economic trajectory Having defined a series of potential economic futures, as time progresses it is important to be able to identify which economic scenario is likely to

transpire. The table below outlines a range of different measures which can help to determine which scenario is indicated by present circumstances.

Regular monitoring of these indicators, such as through an interactive or regularly updated dashboard, can assist in providing insight into when certain

actions (as outlined in the next section) should be implemented. In particular, understanding whether shifts in each indicator are cyclical or structural is

important to determining the potential future path (and may not be evident for some time). Each indicator is separately identified as either a lead or lag

indicator, with further information provided on ‘what to look for’ to determine which scenario is most likely to eventuate. Indicators should be

considered in combination, as a single indicator is unlikely to give specific guidance on the identification of which scenario is most representative of

the current circumstances.

Table 6.1: Leading and lagging indicators to monitor the Upper Hunter region’s economic trajectory

Lead/lag indicator

Limited change Transition Shock

Demand drivers and outlook

Global climate action Lead • Global action on emissions targets

and quotas is delayed/deferred

• Global consensus reached on

emissions targets and quotas, resulting in a gradual transition away from coal

• Global consensus reached on

emissions targets and quotas, resulting in a swift transition away from coal

Global energy demand forecasts

Lead • Ongoing global demand for thermal coal

• Increase in expected global energy demand from renewables

• Stagnation/decline in expected global energy demand (all sources)

Thermal coal supply outlook from competitor countries

Lead • Decline in thermal coal production and investment internationally (increasing market share of Australian producers)

• Thermal coal production and investment internationally remains constant (placing pressure on Australian producers)

• International production and investment in thermal coal increases (placing pressure on Australian producers)

Thermal coal prices Lead • Spot and future prices for thermal coal remain stable/increase

• Sustained downward trend in spot and future prices for thermal coal

• Sharp and prolonged decline in spot and future prices for thermal coal

Capital investment pipeline

Local capital investment ($)

Lead • Capital investment increases or remains constant

• Decline in agricultural and farm capital expenditure

• Capital investment declines • Growth in agricultural and farm

capital expenditure • Growth in capital expenditure on

accommodation and tourism-related services

• Sale of fixed and mobile capital at mine sites

• Agricultural and farm capital expenditure remains unchanged

Mining consent

applications

Lead • New consent applications and

renewals

• No new consent applications or

renewals; rehabilitation and sale of expired sites

• Extinguishment of existing

consents; rehabilitation and sale of unexpired mine sites

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Lead/lag indicator


Local foreign investment Lead • Increase in foreign investment in existing and new coal mine sites

• Decline/withdrawal of foreign investment from agribusinesses

• Foreign investment in existing coal mine sites remains unchanged

• Increase in foreign investment in agribusinesses

• Increase in foreign investment in emerging industries (e.g. renewable energy and/or food manufacturing)

• Decline/withdrawal of foreign investment from mining

• Foreign investment in agribusiness remains unchanged

Production inputs

Local land use and prices Lag • Increased sales of agricultural land and decline in sale prices

• Increase in sales/leasing of buffer lands and rehabilitated mine lands for use for agriculture and by

emerging industry, while prices remain steady

• Increase in sales/leasing of buffer lands and rehabilitated mine lands at declining sale prices

Local water price and allocations

Lead • Increase in water prices and allocation of purchases to mining

• Increase in trading activity, but with steady prices, and increase in share of allocations to agribusiness and emerging industries

• Collapse of water market and prices

Domestic emissions target/pricing policies

Lead • No emissions reduction target or pricing constraint/cost imposed on coal mining and livestock agricultural sectors

• Gradual increase to production costs for coal miners and livestock producers due to the introduction of emissions reduction and pricing policies

• Sudden and sharp increase production costs due to the introduction of aggressive emissions reduction and pricing policies affecting coal mining and agribusiness

Local labour market (employment and wages)

Lag • Steady wage growth but stagnant employment growth in mining, accompanied by declining employment and wage stagnation in other industry sectors

• Steady wage growth but declining employment in mining, accompanied by employment growth and moderate wage growth in other industry sectors

• Sudden and sharp decline in mining employment, accompanied by stagnant employment and wage growth in other industry sectors

Technology adoption

Adoption of

renewable/alternate energy tech. in key global coal markets

Lead • Key coal consuming countries

(both current and prospective) continue to invest in coal-fired energy capacity

• Increased investment by key coal

consuming countries (both current and prospective) in renewable/alternate energy generation technologies

• Key coal consuming countries

(both current and prospective) rapidly adopt new and alternate energy technology

Mining automation tech. investment

Lead • Coal miners increasingly invest in and adopt automation and remote working technologies at their mine sites

• Coal miners increasingly invest in and adopt automation and remote working technologies at their mine sites

• Upper Hunter coal mines cease production or are closed prior to the implementation of new technologies

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Lead/lag indicator


Renewable energy tech. investment

Lead • Investment in renewable energy technologies in the Upper Hunter is in line with current expectations

• Investment growth in renewable energy technologies in the Upper Hunter exceeds current expectations

• Expected growth in investment in renewable energy technologies in the Upper Hunter fails to transpire

Digital connectivity investment

Lead • Increase in infrastructure investment in digital connectivity technologies

• Increase in infrastructure investment in digital connectivity technologies

• No additional infrastructure investment in digital connectivity technologies

AgTech investments Lag • Low investment and adoption of AgTech

• Increased investment and adoption of AgTech

• Low investment and adoption of AgTech

Socioeconomic

Economic output and value

Lag • Growth in both gross regional product and gross value add of

mining industry, accompanied by stagnant growth of other industry sectors

• Moderate growth in gross regional product, accompanied by growth in

the gross value add for agriculture, tourism, utilities industries, but stagnation/decline in mining

• Stagnation/decline in gross regional production, accompanied

by sharp decline in mining gross value add, and slow moderate growth in agribusiness

Business turnover and creation

Lag • Increase in the rate of business exits in industries not associated with mining sector, accompanied by growth in business creation in industries associated with mining

• Increase in the exit rate for businesses associated with mining, accompanied by increase in rate of business creation in other industry segments

• Increase in the rate of business exits across the board

Primary and middle school enrolments

Lead • Stagnation/decline in local school enrolments (as current population trends continue)

• Growth in local school enrolments (as families relocate to the region)

• Rapid decline in local school enrolments (as families depart the region)

Housing market turnover

and prices

Lag • Steady market listings and

turnover, but increase in house prices

• Steady market listings and

turnover, but stagnation in house prices

• Increased market listings, but

slowing turnover and decline in house prices

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Part 3: Diversification

roadmap

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7 Action plan for inclusive

growth

From data analysis, desktop research and stakeholder consultations, the following action plan for

inclusive growth has been formulated. As shown in Figure 7.1, there are eight key themes that

have been identified as areas that need to be addressed to ensure the Upper Hunter’s

diversification considers equity for all. These themes are further streamlined into key actions

which describe what could be done (with examples where relevant) and how they meet community

need, with each action mapped to an economic, social and/or land use domain.

As seen in the figure below, these themes (concentric circles) overlap. This indicates that

addressing actions in each theme create flow-on impacts in other themes. For example, addressing

transport in theme 6 has the potential to impact education access and social service access

addressed in themes 4 and 5. Central to any growth is the ability of the key stakeholders to lead

and drive collaboration to lay foundations for the future, which has been placed in the centre of the

figure as a result.

Each of these actions have been mapped at the end of each theme against the scenarios identified

in section 6. These are to provide a gauge on the temporality of these actions, dependent on the

scenario that is undertaken.

: Action Plan Themes

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7.1 Theme 1: Foundations for the future The Upper Hunter region’s existing governance network lays the foundations for supporting the

region through an economic transition. As explored further in Chapter 8, the development of a

‘best practice’ governance structure that is deeply connected to the needs of the local community

and united under a clear policy rationale is integral to success. Ultimately, sustainable economic

growth is the result of efficiently developing and leveraging people (and their skills, knowledge,

and culture) and the structural assets and economy.

Consultations identified that while stakeholders understand there is an existing governance

network to support transition, the roles, responsibilities and clear lines of accountability for

decision-making are seemingly opaque; and engaging with this structure for those external-to-

government has been a challenge for some.

In any economic transition, the capacity of the governance structure and its ability to function

quickly can pose a risk. A lack of clarity, or inability to make timely decisions could stifle a

transition. Disparate governance structures risk frequent and high-volume decision-making that

are at odds with each other. This would be likely to occur when the governance structure is

cumbersome and slow-moving. As every transition is different, finding the right balance can take

time and should be developed and tested in line with the needs of communities and businesses.

In this respect, there is scope to improve, test and refine the existing framework in the Upper

Hunter to better prepare the region for future transition in terms of streamlining for efficient and

timely decision-making so that the governance can prepare and respond quickly as economic

change accelerates. Importantly, ensuring that the governance structure can support the needs of

the Upper Hunter will further support the other actions outlined in this Chapter.

Action 1.1: Load test the existing governance framework

The next step for preparing the region for success in the future, irrespective of what that future

might look like, is to build on existing networks (i.e. working groups, committees and

organisations) and understand how well placed these bodies are to interact, collaborate and

support the preparation of the region for transition (such as attracting new investment) or respond

to the different types of transition events that might arise (such as those outlined in Chapter 6).

The governance network should be prepared, proactive and accountable.

In the event of a transition shock, such as a sudden loss of jobs in the local mining industry (such

as that outlined in the Case Study: Victorian Government, Latrobe Valley Authority in Chapter 8),

the availability of the governance network for the provision of support and rapid decision-making is

crucial to success. Based on experience in Victoria, as economic transition accelerates the

government must respond quickly and decisively, engaging at a local level with community and

industry stakeholders. To ensure the existing governance structure can support and facilitate this

process, the effectiveness of the Upper Hunter Region’s governance framework could be ‘load

tested’.

During a transition shock, the volume of engagement with the local community increases

significantly; this ‘load test’ would ascertain the capacity of the existing network to cope with such

a shock. ‘Load testing’ the existing governance framework would consider actions to ensure

regional actors have the capacity to engage with large numbers of people, can utilise the region’s

online presence appropriately and have direct channels clearly signposted for business.

Who? This process could be undertaken by existing supporting governance bodies, including the

LGAs, and supported and overseen by the State Government as a facilitator.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken by the end of 2021.

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Action 1.2: Streamline and improve engagement and communication of

outcomes

There is a perception among local stakeholders that the existing governance structure is opaque,

and that the relationship between previous stakeholder engagement and direct or visible outcomes

has been difficult to ascertain.

In addition to ‘load testing’ the existing governance structure, continuous efforts should be made

to streamline the governance network to ensure that the structure can support efficient decision-

making and, principally, provide clear lines of responsibility and accountability in the eyes of the

local community and business. Streamlining the existing governance structure for efficiency and

accountability should seek to:

• Align responsibility for outcomes with groups best placed to support the needs of the

community during different transition phases. This would involve incorporating the tracking

and monitoring of the region’s transition and aligning key outcomes with different stages of the

transition roadmap.

• Leverage the existing networks (i.e. working groups, committees and organisations) that

engage with business and community in the Upper Hunter region to create a publicly visible

and inclusive multi-stakeholder governance structure with clear roles and

responsibilities centred around the status and timing of the region’s economic transition. This

requires identifying the relevant stakeholders that are external to government.

Ultimately, proactively tracking and monitoring the transition alongside clearly identifiable

feedback between government, industry and community will ensure that collaboration and the

sharing of information occurs through the most appropriate channels.

Who? This process should take into consideration the findings of Action 1.1. Efforts to streamline

governance structures (such as providing clear communication materials which describe the

relevant governance frameworks and arrangements, including reporting lines and responsibilities

e.g. interactive graphic) could be led by the Hunter JO, with support from the State Government

and in collaboration with community groups and business and industry.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken by the end of 2021.

7.2 Theme 2: Prepare for the unknown The Upper Hunter’s access to natural resources provides the region with a comparative advantage

that has long supported economic growth led by a few key industries. However, these strengths

are also what expose the region to the economic impacts and physical risks of climate change.

The major industries driving growth, mining and agriculture, rely heavily on the availability of

natural resources. The changing climate and availability of water resources are, therefore, key

parameters that will shape the future outlook for these industries. While the Greater Hunter

Regional Water Strategy provides extensive research using historical climatic record of the region,

there is a limited understanding about how the region's climate is likely to change over the next

50-years and how this will impact on the availability of water.

Every region of the world is exposed to the physical risks of a changing climate, and while it is

impossible to fully predict the effects of a changing climate, it is worth understanding the extent of

climate exposure in a region over the long-term, especially in a region that is supported by a

resource-based economy.

Action 2.1. Prepare long-range climate and water outlooks for the region

Underpinning the activities of major industry sectors is climate and water. Irrespective of industrial

demand it is important to understand how climate and water supply are likely to vary over time.

Detailed climate modelling and forecasts will assist the region to develop a deeper understanding

of the environmental outlook to identify how land areas across the Hunter Valley region will likely

be affected (e.g. agriculture and mining) and inform the prioritisation of infrastructure solutions.

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These outlooks should cover expected changes in:

• future rainfall and evaporation patterns

• temperatures and temperature variation

• changes in soil quality

• the frequency and severity of natural disasters, including severe storm and fire events, and

drought and drought lengths

• pressures on the natural environment, including pressures on water catchments and aquifers,

flora and fauna wildlife, and natural parklands.

The development of long-range climate and water outlooks for the region should consider supply-

side constraints that can assist decision-makers to set parameters within which industries can

grow.

Who? While these forecasts may be outside of the immediate capacity for local stakeholders to

produce, the relevant councils may request this outlook from the relevant State Government

bodies, such as NSW Primary Industries or AdaptNSW120, or engage support from the

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Where this information is not

readily available, regional organisations may wish to commission new work, in conjunction with

DPIE Water who are already doing this work for Regional Water Strategies.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years,

and be updated throughout the period of transition.

Action 2.2: Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the

region

As previously noted, the prosperity of the region is largely dependent on industries that are reliant

on soil and coal, but do not co-exist or interact easily. The very landscape that is an enabler is also

a limitation, with climate and water security and quality an ongoing concern. As highlighted in the

Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy,121 the limited availability of water resources is a central

issue that limits the region’s ability to achieve a diverse mix of industries. A clearer semi-regular

demand outlook should be built out for water resources (in the context of the outlook established

in Action 2.1) to support planning decisions in the short-medium term. As above, should this

outlook be outside the scope of local planning activities, it should be separately commissioned

from an appropriate State Government body, educational and/or private organisation and should

build on the work undertaken in the Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy.

The outputs should highlight the future demand for water resources from local industries (e.g.

mining and agriculture), from growing urban areas (both locally and in the Newcastle and Mid-

Coast areas), and from the natural environment. This can then be used to evaluate the longer-

term sustainability of current water use practices, considering existing incentive structures, water

use and management practices, and sharing arrangements.

Ultimately, Action 2.1 and Action 2.2 will inform the development of solutions (including

infrastructure solutions) to ensure sustainability and water security, and to improve water

management and allocation practices between industry sectors, population demands, and the

environment.

Who? As per Action 2.2, while these forecasts may be outside of the immediate capacity for local

stakeholders to produce, the relevant councils may seek to request this outlook from the relevant

120 NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, 2020, AdaptNSW, available at: https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-for-NSW/Climate-projections-for-your-region 121 NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, November 2018, Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy, New South Wales Government, available at: https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/196055/greater-hunter-regional-water-strategy.pdf

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State Government bodies, or alternatively, seek an educational institution or private sector

organisation to produce a regional outlook.


and subsequently be updated on a regular basis or as conditions dictate.

Action 2.3: Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region

A fundamental driver of economic growth and employment in the region, the mining sector equally

exposes the community to national and international risk as markets begin to transition away from

emissions intensive industries. There are also cyclical factors at play, with commodity prices

subject to significant volatility across economic cycles. To support the region’s transition, an

understanding of the potential future(s) of (coal) mining in Australia over the next 50 years and

the role for the Hunter Valley should be developed and regularly updated among stakeholders

(particularly in the context of new governance arrangements discussed in Theme 1).

The outlook should seek to answer questions related to the timing of disruption to the coal

industry covering both demand and supply-side considerations. This could include an overview of

the global competitiveness of Hunter mines in terms of costs of production, the timing of these

changes and forecasts for growth in global demand for the type and quantity of coal mined in the

Hunter (i.e. volume and price forecasts).

The outlook should also consider additional drivers of future supply and demand changes,

including:

• an acceleration of climate change

• growth in competitive energy sources (e.g. renewables)

• introduction of carbon pricing domestically

• introduction of carbon pricing internationally (or in key coal importing countries)

• technological disruption and the automation of production in the mining sector.

Who? While the LGAs should keep a close eye on the future outlook via publicly available

documentation, the requirement for a frequent and detailed outlook may require specialist support

from the State Government, and/or private institutions.


and subsequently be updated on a regular basis or as conditions dictate.

7.3 Theme 3: Shape perceptions Often, regions are defined by their strengths, whether it be industrial, cultural or the surrounding

natural environment. These strengths can merge into an association with identity – for

communities and businesses alike. The perception of place that locals, businesses and potential

investors may have can influence decisions to remain in the region and attract new businesses and

investment. Image, therefore, should be carefully curated, genuine, and consistent with all other

aspects of decision-making – especially, those relating to investment and visitor attraction.

The Upper Hunter region’s offerings extend further than just mining. As explored in Chapter 5, the

region has strengths in other industries such as agribusiness, energy and tourism, and will

continue to invest in diversifying its economy as it transitions away from mining. Supporting these

industries will require the attraction of investment and skills as key inputs to production. As the

region moves to redefine its economic landscape, the way in which the community approaches

economic development to attract social and financial capital will also need to change.

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Action 3.1: Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy

Place branding is often used by local governments to attract social and financial capital to their

region.122 A targeted place branding strategy will enable the region to differentiate itself from its

former image and develop a competitive ‘brand value’. It will also provide a clear and unifying

message to existing businesses and communities as well as promote the region’s aspirations to

encourage investment for the future.

In the case of the Upper Hunter, the aim of a place branding strategy and regional ‘brand value’

would be to support the development of industry sectors where the region has demonstratable

competitive strengths and offer future growth potential – such as, agribusiness, energy and

tourism.

The launch of the UP website in June 2020,123 is an initial step in the right direction to support the

region to build a brand that can attract investment and activity throughout the transition.

However, more depth and detail are required to present a unified and coherent image of the region

to the world. Presently the UP portal is difficult to find – a simple web search did not result in it

appearing on the first page and while the portal provides visitors with links to potentially relevant

bodies/organisations/documents, it requires more attention to identify how the website can best

assist those who will be most likely to utilise it. Small fixes like this represent low-hanging fruit

that can provide significant benefits across all stages of the region’s transition.

The appropriate strategy will need to consider the needs of the community and its longevity (i.e.

targeting population growth) and the needs of industry (i.e. supporting investment). To achieve

this, the development of the strategy should involve the community. This could be done through

existing local groups (e.g. the Hunter Joint Organisation) alongside local government. This process

should seek to identify the elements of place (e.g. natural environment, built environment, culture

and heritage and people) that make the Upper Hunter region unique and build a complete brand.

Who? This process would require collaboration between the local community/industry, led by a

single governance body such as the Hunter Joint Organisation (as owners of the UP initiative) to

ensure all of the engagement with local community and business is clear, easy to locate and

interpret and is unified.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action can happen progressively over the next few

decades. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action should be undertaken over the next

three to five years.

Action 3.2: Improve the quality of urban amenity

From across the various focus groups and consultations undertaken, there was a call for the urban

amenity of the region to reflect the ‘brand’ of the region. One barrier to this goal was a consistent,

collaborative approach to urban amenity provision across the region. As such, a coordinated social

infrastructure strategy should be developed across the region, in collaboration with all four local

Councils. The strategy should detail opportunities to support the ‘brand’ of the region, improve

social networks and community engagement, and look to dispel negative perceptions. Additionally,

the strategy should identify needs and current gaps for social and community service provision

within the region (for example community hub models), forming the basis of any future services

(further detail can be found in Actions 5.2 and 5.3). Solutions understood to already be

underway include infrastructure and services to support a diversified night-time economy, arts and

cultural hubs and family-friendly parks.

The key to success for a social infrastructure strategy is genuine engagement with the community

and collaboration across key delivery stakeholders. This strategy should also be consistent with the

region’s promotion strategy and its economic development objectives, and align with image the

region wishes to project to prospective investors, visitors, and future residents.

122 Andersson, Ida (2014) Placing place branding: an analysis of an emerging research field in human geography. Danish Journal of Geography, 114.2, 143- 155. 123 Available at <https://upperhunterregion.com.au/>.

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Who? This could possibly be undertaken in an LGA collaboration by the Hunter Joint Organisation.

The social infrastructure strategy should be an opportunity to collaborate with stakeholder groups

and the community to ensure all voices are heard and part of forming solutions, reflecting existing

Community Strategic Plans that are prepared by each LGA.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to

five years. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action should be commenced

immediately.

7.4 Theme 4: Improve skills and workforce outcomes The skills and education of residents in the region are mostly matched to the current industry

profile of the region. As this profile shifts and changes, re-training and skilling the population will

become increasingly important. Young people, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and

female lone parents are key cohorts in the region who experience constraints from lower education

and skills attainment.

For example, some young people in the region face constraints to employment derived from lower

levels of education and training, and a constrained job market, with limited entry-level positions.

The reduced rates of education and training are likely attributable to low engagement in secondary

education; evidenced by the fact that only 37 per cent of young people in the region complete Year

12.124 Additionally, young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the region have lower

engagement rates in secondary education. In consultations it was mentioned that this is

potentially due to a lack of access to culturally safe and appropriate education services. Female-

headed lone parents families face constraints to employment and further education from external

barriers including transport accessibility, higher costs of living and housing, and a lack of

affordable childcare services.

Many emerging industries and businesses within the Upper Hunter require further education

qualifications to support access to skills in the region, including entry-level jobs in some instances.

Therefore, further support to access further education and re-skilling is required.

Action 4.1: Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training

opportunities for residents

As noted above, the skills and education of residents in the region are mostly matched to the

current industry profile of the region. That is, they are matched to service and product delivery

industries and not generally high value add sectors (except for those in the mining sector). A

detailed, rigorous, regionalised analysis is required of both the current workforce skills profile, and

how these skills can be transferred to other sectors and industries.

A skills map that also assesses projected demand scenarios and industry age structure for specific

sectors would provide useful insights. This skills map could be used for potential investors in the

region as well as offer the opportunity to support re-training efforts within the economy.

Who? Some work in this space is currently underway by the Business Attraction Committee.125

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next ten

years, while more immediate action should be undertaken under the transition and shock

scenarios.

124 Australian Government, 2016, Upper Hunter Workforce Plan, available at: http://portal.singleton.nsw.gov.au/eplanning/common/output/trimdocumentviewer.aspx?id=07adysaavYI%3D 125 The Business Attraction Committee comprising local business leaders, has been established by Regional NSW to assist potential investors to the Hunter region

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Action 4.2: Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion

In order to encourage students to stay within the education system, exposing and inspiring young

people to the prospects of the Upper Hunter is important. This can be done with mentorship

programs as well as programs that educate and provide students with training pathways (see

Action 4.3).

Mentorship programs have been proven to support engagement, dispel negative community and

social network issues and support retention and completion of further study. For example, models

such as Clontarf Academy show that catered (and culturally appropriate) mentorship has the

potential to encourage and retain students in the education system.

Case Study: Clontarf Academy

Clontarf Academy focuses on young male Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students. The

Academy provides mentorship, sports activities and other support services through schools. It

also assists students in finding pathways to further education opportunities. The program has a

far reach with over 120 academies and 9,000 students currently participating across Australia.

A strategy should be developed to support and expand upon curated and culturally appropriate

mentorship programs in the region. This could be done through pilot programs, or the expansion

of existing models such as the Clontarf Academy. As part of this strategy social networks are

strengthened so that students feel part of a community and not isolated from learning, as

discussed further in Action 5.2.

Who? In order to ensure the success of the above identified action, including appropriate

evaluation and monitoring of success, the current Skills and Education Working Group should be

supported and enhanced. This group should comprise representatives from key stakeholders

including the Department of Education, the Hunter Region Employment Facilitator, TAFE NSW,

Newcastle University, industry and other regional organisations (e.g. RDA), as well as community

groups (including Indigenous Australians in the region). Subgroups, or panels of this working

group could be formed with focuses on secondary education attainment, Indigenous educational

outcomes, further education attainment and skills re-training. Greater collaboration with other

sectors within the Upper Hunter region, will ultimately lead to better education and employment

outcomes in the region.

When? Under each scenario, this action should commence over the next three to five years in

order to address existing social disadvantage and community concerns, and to maximise the

opportunities of young people living within the region.

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Action 4.3: Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education

There are fantastic programs in the broader Hunter region that support improvements to

educational attainment and workforce participation, including P-TECH and others that facilitate

industry, VET and secondary school opportunities. Through the Education and Training Focus

Group it became apparent that certain bodies are already working extremely well. In order to

support this ongoing collaboration and program success, a dedicated skills and training working

group could be developed with a primary remit of improving vocational and higher educational

attainment in the region. This working group could also take charge in the development of a skills

map as per Action 4.1, matching the skills required in industry against the skills in the region with

the changing industry composition.

Case Study: P-TECH

P-TECH offers secondary students an industry-supported education pathway to a science,

technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) related diploma, advanced diploma or

associate degree. This allows students to have greater insight and knowledge of industries that

are rapidly becoming the face of the Upper Hunter.

Through both the education and training and the social impact focus group consultations, the need

for greater career advice for residents and young people was discussed. As the region’s economy

rapidly changes, more advice is particularly needed on the future of work and how skills in today’s

industries can be transferable between industries and occupations. The Hunter Joint Organisation’s

Hunter 2050 Foundation was mentioned as a potential driver of this through a proposed Worker

Support Services. Other partnerships that should be explored include Youth Express in schools,

TAFE institutes and the University of Newcastle. Other best-practice models to be explored include

the Victorian TAFE models, which incorporate both career counselling and career mapping

sessions. Programs like this improve student awareness and engagement, supporting greater

uptake of further education, especially for young people.

Who? As the primary provider of vocational education, the State Government should identify

transferrable skills across industries and occupations with significant support from existing

governance bodies (such as the Hunter JO). For assistance with higher education pathways, the

Commonwealth Government, as the primary provider of higher education, should lead action on

skills pathways in this area (with the support of the State Government).

When? Under all scenarios, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years.

7.5 Theme 5: Build vibrant communities In order to build vibrant communities, social and environmental barriers must be addressed. This

requires the expansion of access to affordable, stable housing, physical and mental health

services, strong social capital opportunities, as well as the building of trust in community and

social services.126 Disadvantage or vulnerability is the result of the complex interplay between

individual factors, the economic characteristics of the local community (e.g. unemployment, low

income) and the effects of the social and environmental context within the community (e.g. weak

social networks, relative lack of opportunities, lack of trust and scepticism).

Those vulnerable cohorts of the Upper Hunter Region are particularly susceptible to these barriers

which further limits their active participation in the economy. Indigenous Australians are further

disadvantaged without the availability of culturally appropriate social services, health and

education.

126 Acknowledging the work undertaken in Council Community Strategic Plans and the role these play in addressing some of these identified barriers, the implementation of the below actions should be undertaken in conjunction with the Local Councils of the region.

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Action 5.1: Support housing affordability and diversity

DPIE is currently developing a state-wide Housing Strategy. In order to enhance housing

affordability and diversity in the region, a housing strategy should be developed for the Upper

Hunter region. The strategy would focus on diversity, supply, affordability and resilience of housing

in the area, in line with the Housing Strategy action areas. The development of this strategy

should leverage existing and/or future governance structures (i.e. leverage existing networks) and

incorporate representations from all four local councils, the Aboriginal community, and social

housing and services in the Upper Hunter region.

Who? This action should be led by the State Government, with support from the Commonwealth

Government, local Government and community groups.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to

five years. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action could be undertaken over the next

decade as the withdrawal of relatively highly paid coal mining jobs from the economy ease current

pressures on housing affordability.

Action 5.2: Strengthen social networks

Strengthening social networks and community cohesion is key to building resilience in a

community. This can be done through numerous avenues including the provision of appropriate

and accessible social infrastructure as well as key programs (for further detail on the need for a

social infrastructure strategy, see Action 3.2).

A successful program model is the delivery of community hubs. A community hub provides a

central point for the community to participate in engagement opportunities, social activities, as

well as the provision of infrastructure such as internet, and key services such as legal support. This

‘hub and spoke’ response works well by incorporating and providing services within facilities which

are perceived as ‘reliable’ within the community.127 This could build on the OCHRE Opportunity

Hub established in Muswellbrook and administered by Training Services NSW.128 Examples of types

of services that could be provided with a community hub are further detailed in Action 5.3. A

feasibility study should be undertaken to explore whether and how community hubs would best

work in the region, exploring the provision of land, revitalisation of dilapidated or abandoned

buildings, as well as the appetite for the provision of social facilities such as council buildings or

youth clubs.

In order to ensure this action can be supported and is effective, there should be reasonable digital

connectivity and transport access to the hub (as mentioned in Theme 6, Improve Connectivity).

Who? To provide support to the local community, business and industry, this action should be

undertaken in a collaborative way, led by LGAs with support and input from the State Government

and community groups.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be commenced immediately.

127 Roufeil, L and Battye, K, April 2008, Effective regional, rural and remote family and relationships service delivery, Australian Government Institute of Family Studies, available at: <https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/effective-regional-rural-and-remote-family-and-relationship#review>. 128 Training Services NSW, ‘OCHRE Opportunity Hubs’ <https://www.training.nsw.gov.au/programs_services/funded_other/acp/ochre.html >.

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Action 5.3: Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy

In order to create greater opportunity for vulnerable cohorts to access further education, skills and

employment opportunities, significant growth in the care economy is required. This includes

services such as childcare, outside school care, disability services and aged care. Expanding this

sector also provides greater employment opportunities in the region. For example, the low-skills

entry requirements and flexibility of employment schedules are key advantages for entering the

sector.

Options to build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy should be explored in consultation with the

community sector in the region. The region has a number of service providers, each with varying

degrees of maturity. Supporting collaboration across these service providers in turn will support

the building of the sector. Supporting partnerships with educational providers should also be

explored. For example, the provision of on-site childcare at TAFEs offers provision of a much-

needed service, but also a place for students studying childcare to complete their placements

within these facilities.

Who? This action should be led by local Government, with support from the State Government

and community groups (taking into consideration the Community Strategic Plans from each LGA)

and business and industry.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years.

Action 5.4: Explore opportunities for improved health and social service

provision in the region

A key concern across the region was access to adequate health and social services. A health,

mental health and social services strategy should be developed that explores the gaps in services

and the various opportunities and models for improved provision. The strategy should explore the

opportunities for building the care economy (see Action 5.3), feasibility of a community hub (see

Action 5.2), successful pilot programs in the region (see case study Stronger Families – Capable

Communities) as well as innovative models of service delivery in regional areas including mobile

services129 and telehealth services.130 Further, supporting the delivery of telehealth mental health

services addresses the social stigma of accessing mental health services and reduces barriers such

as travel time and costs.

Additionally, community-led approaches to health promotion and social awareness will be

important and should be explored as part of the strategy. For example, within the focus groups

and consultations, a key barrier identified in accessing services was the scepticism many locals felt

towards authorities and providers. Peer-led health promotion and community education services

that are led by community members need to be considered, especially for the Aboriginal and

Torres Strait Islander population in the region. These ensure that services are culturally

appropriate. Some best-practice models overseas recruit community volunteers who are provided

with an accredited training programme on community health education and promotion. A similar

approach could be adopted in the region, especially for the Indigenous Australian population who

would benefit from culturally appropriate and Indigenous led health promotion activities.

The strategy should ensure any models of service provision implemented, including telehealth

services, considers how to best:

• build trust, reach and awareness in the community

• support service providers in the region (and beyond)

• provide infrastructure to deliver the new model (see for example Action 6.3 for expanding

digital infrastructure).

129 This is particularly useful for specialist services, that may otherwise spend a high proportion of budget on establishing infrastructure to provide services. 130 Roufeil, L and Battye, K, April 2008, Effective regional, rural and remote family and relationships service delivery, Australian Government Institute of Family Studies, available at: https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/effective-regional-rural-and-remote-family-and-relationship#review

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Greater access to health, mental health and social services is key to ensuring the region builds

vibrant communities.

Strong Families—Capable Communities

Strong Families—Capable Communities employs a collective impact approach to addressing

social problems and enhancing community strengths. The collective impact program is currently

delivered by the University of Newcastle and led by Professor Alan Hayes.

A pilot program was rolled out in Muswellbrook in three schools and consisted of: • Occupational Therapy (OT) Students from the University of Newcastle doing their

placements in Muswellbrook schools. School students were able to access OT services under the supervision of a practitioner. The plan is to expand school placements (in phase 2 of the pilot) to include nutrition and dietetics, physiotherapy, psychology,

speech therapy and medicine students. • Outreach programs in the area include ‘Act-Belong-Commit’ and ‘Our Health Rules’

programs. The aim is to promote wellbeing and eating healthy and physical activity

through these health education initiatives.

Who? Any strategy on health and social services should be led by the State Government as the

primary provider of healthcare services, with support from the Commonwealth Government,

community groups and business and industry.

When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should be undertaken over

the next three to five years. Under the shock scenario this action should be undertaken

immediately.

7.6 Theme 6: Improve connectivity The relationship between physical and digital connectivity and economic growth is not new. It is

worth noting however, that the key benefit of improved transport connectivity is its

transformational effects – making cities and regions more accessible and more liveable.131

Better connectivity creates opportunities for economic development that would not otherwise exist.

Presently, the Upper Hunter region suffers from physical and digital connectivity issues. In

particular, transport barriers disrupt access to education, employment, social, health and

community services. Community consultations also indicated a widespread view that the Upper

Hunter region, like many areas in regional Australia, continues to suffer from digital connectivity

issues.

Physical and digital infrastructure are important to support the needs of industry today and

tomorrow. From the perspective of community and industry – physical and digital infrastructure

and connectivity are important to attracting and retaining investment and people. Without

improvement, issues with physical and digital connectivity will act as barriers to attracting people

and investment in the region.

131 Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities, 2016, Harnessing Value, Delivering Infrastructure, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, available at https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportrep/024018/toc_pdf/HarnessingValue,DeliveringInfrastructure.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf

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Action 6.1: Investigate innovative local public transport solutions

A reoccurring theme across all the focus groups and consultations was around transport barriers in

accessing education, employment, social, health and community services, in particular public

transport accessibility and optionality. People living in regional areas of NSW often have limited

choice and must rely on private vehicles to access services, education and employment.132 This

presents a significant barrier to active economic participation for certain cohorts in the region,

especially for those who cannot afford private vehicles or cannot drive.

Access to transport is an enabler across a number of actions and as such is a critical action. A

feasibility study should be undertaken that investigates innovative local public transport solutions.

The study should consider options that are articulated in the NSW Transport Strategy (2056) such

as on-demand services and regional Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV), as well as other

options including car-sharing initiatives and community buses.

On-demand services are an innovative local public transport solution, they pick locals up from their

homes or an easy to access location and drop them off at transport hubs, community hubs or

popular destinations. A trial service has been occurring since 2019 in the Orana region operated by

Ogden’s Coaches company. Bookings can be made up to a month or a day beforehand and fares

are split into concession and standard.133

CAVs are another innovative transport solution, especially in regional areas, as articulated in the

NSW Transport Strategy (2056). CAVs improve the timeliness of transport services, as well as act

as a catalyst for further innovation in region. A key success factor in delivery of CAVs is ensuring

that the supporting infrastructure (roads and digital infrastructure) are in place.

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) Trial

Automated vehicles use technologies including robotics, sensors and advanced software to

automate one or more elements of driving, such as steering, accelerating or braking.

Connected vehicles use wireless technology to communicate with other vehicles, the road and

other infrastructure, and even personal devices. Automated shuttle trials were carried out at

the end of 2018 in Coffs Harbour and Armidale. The trial included testing technology with the

University of New England and introducing shuttle services for residents around the Armidale

CBD area. The idea is that CAVs will be part of an integrated transport network in the future.

Car sharing is another option that could be explored in the region. Car sharing provides affordable

access to vehicles, reduces vehicle distance travelled, and provides an option to those who would

not otherwise have access to a car. Additionally, the option is generally more environmentally

friendly.134 As car sharing providers including Go-Get and Car Next Door currently largely operate

in metropolitan areas, opportunities to attract operators like this could be explored.

Who? Any strategy should be undertaken in a collaborative way across Transport for NSW and

Local Councils.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced immediately. Under

the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next 3-5 years. Under the shock scenario

this action should be over the next decade as the rapid withdrawal of large-scale coal mining

employment reduces the imperative for improved transport solutions.

132 Audit Office of New South Wales, Public transport in regional areas, New South Wales Government, available at: https://www.audit.nsw.gov.au/our-work/reports/public-transport-in-regional-areas 133 Transport for NSW, 2018 Future Transport 2056 Strategy accessed online <https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/documents/2018/Future_Transport_2056_Strategy.pdf> 134 City of Sydney, 31 July 2020 Article: Car Share, accessed online at: <https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/live/residents/car-share>

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Action 6.2: Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport

infrastructure gaps

Throughout the consultation process, the issue of quality and capacity of transport infrastructure

connecting the Upper Hunter to other major population centres – such as Sydney and Western

Sydney – was raised a barrier to growth and investment attraction. Stakeholders from the

agribusiness and tourism sectors identified poor road and rail transport connectivity as a barrier to

increased freight transport and tourism visitations due to the increased time-cost associated with

travel to the Upper Hunter. This was also identified not only as a barrier to the future growth of

these industries, but also to the potential diversification and the growth of auxiliary service

industries and downstream supply chain industries – such as food manufacturing.

However, the impact of the quality of the existing road transport infrastructure on the

diversification and growth of the region is dependent on the scenario outlook for the region. In a

future where mining continues to dominate (Limited Change scenario), for example, the case for

improved and greater capacity road infrastructure would be stronger.

A first step is to prepare a scoping study to specifically identify the existing inter-regional road

transport infrastructure gaps and consider the potential emerging needs and unmet demands of

industry (both current and prospective industries) under various scenario outlooks. This would

consider the needs of the Upper Hunter region’s stakeholders today, as well as consideration for

the needs of stakeholders in industries that the region wishes to attract in future.

Who? Any scoping study should be undertaken in a collaborative way, led by the NSW

Government (particularly Transport for NSW) with additional support from the DRNSW, and

regional local councils.

When? Under each scenario, this action should take place immediately.

Action 6.3: Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of

digital connectivity

The NSW Government “has committed $400 million to bring a faster and more reliable digital

network to regional NSW. The Regional Digital Connectivity program will ensure families and

businesses across regional NSW have better access to enjoy mobile, internet and digital services”.

Areas in the Upper Hunter, such as Muswellbrook, have been included in consultations by the

Government to better understand the challenges.135 Consultations in the Upper Hunter for this

project also reflected that digital connectivity is currently a significant challenge for the

community, business and industry.

Digital infrastructure and connectivity play an extremely important role in economic development,

serving as the foundation on which researchers and industry have innovated economies and

societies to higher standards of living and technological process. The use and application of

satellite enabled data have driven improvements in productivity across many industries in our

economy, but noticeably so in agriculture and mining.

For example, mobile and internet connectivity in the agricultural sectors can provide farmers with

valuable information on weather conditions, disease control and new methods of maximising crop

yield, and enable livestock tracking. Estimates indicate that Australia’s agriculture sector could

increase its gross value of production by $20.3 billion through unconstrained digital agriculture.136

In the mining industry by comparison remote operating centres, data analytics, drones, powerful

geological tools, advanced mine planning software and automation have played a significant role in

driving improvements in productivity.

However, these improvements all require integration into existing systems that is enabled by the

quality of digital connectivity. Looking ahead (regardless of the scenario), industry is going to

135 Regional NSW, Better connectivity for regional NSW, New South Wales Government, available at: https://www.nsw.gov.au/snowy-hydro-legacy-fund/better-connectivity-for-regional-nsw 136 Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, 2019, Connecting Victoria, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne, available at https://djpr.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1729760/12172-DJPR-RDV-Connecting-Victoria_overview-brochure-A4-revised_v3_FINAL.pdf

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continue to rely on digital infrastructure to support operations. Having digital infrastructure that

can support the growing (and future) needs of industry is an important factor in attracting and

retaining investment.

To assist the region to support diversification, it is important that a clear understanding of the

current state of digital infrastructure supporting the Upper Hunter region be developed. Particularly

as it pertains to the differing needs of community, business and industry, and how well positioned

the existing infrastructure is to support the medium-long term needs of the region. Digital

solutions for the Upper Hunter could include:

• Work with industry to develop an understanding of how major industries in the region, such as

mining and agriculture are using digital infrastructure in their operations and to what standard

the existing infrastructure supports these activities

• Engage in a process to identify the digital infrastructure needs of the Upper Hunter region

• Use these findings to inform the development of a business case to consider the appropriate

options for further detailed assessment. Noting that any options should be considered in the

context of existing strategies (e.g. the Regional Digital Connectivity program)

Who? The identification of the current state of digital infrastructure and the Upper Hunter region’s

future needs should be led by the NSW Government, as the primary provider of infrastructure

(such as 4G and 5G infrastructure) particularly in ‘thin’ markets, with support from the Australian

Government in relation to further NBN rollout.

When? Under each scenario, this action should be commenced immediately.

7.7 Theme 7: Activate innovation and enterprise In order to support the diversification of the region and support the growth of the region’s priority

industries, technological innovation and entrepreneurship should be fostered and encouraged. As

with other regional areas in Australia, the Upper Hunter faces challenges in terms of

unemployment, transitioning industries and ‘brain drain’ of talent to cities. Solutions to these

challenges require innovation and the uptake of new technologies to drive economic

development.137 The ability to embrace and apply new technologies – such as AgTech and METS –

has the potential provide another point of difference and competitive strength for the Upper

Hunter, as well as further enhance the productivity of the region’s priority industries and develop

industry ecosystems and clusters.

Within the community focus group, it was discussed that young people are interested in learning

more about technological advancement opportunities. Encouraging further expansion of relevant

industries will also support delivery of diversity of jobs, including entry level jobs. This will support

inclusive growth principles, providing employment opportunities for young people, and those

looking to re-train. Additionally, by encouraging business activity and growth, supporting

entrepreneurship, social enterprise and SMEs this in turn will support the attraction of people to

the region and support inclusive growth.

Action 7.1: Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy

The development of an innovation ecosystem strategy should be undertaken in the Upper Hunter

region. A similar strategy was undertaken by the Queensland Government for regional

Queensland, known as the ‘Regional Innovation Hubs Program.’ The strategy entailed the

formation of innovation hubs (places and spaces,) mentorship and grant opportunities that could

be translated to the Upper Hunter.

The innovation ecosystem strategy should explore the opportunity for an innovation hub in the

region. Innovation hubs support agglomeration benefits through bringing people together, giving

them access to expertise and facilities. This in turn cultivates start-ups, new technologies and

innovation. They are beneficial to the community as they encourage and support diversification,

particularly in the technology space for higher value add industries. It also provides a sense of

137 Haines, T. 2016. Developing a Startup and Innovation Ecosystem in Regional Australia. Technology Innovation Management Review, 6(6): 24-32. http://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/994

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community pride and social cohesion. Hubs also have the potential to attract new residents from

outside the region, also bringing new jobs with them.

As Innovation Hubs generally have a core focus, potential areas for investigation for the region

could encompass AgTech and METS. Actions, such as those aimed at improving digital connectivity

(Action 6.3, discussed earlier) and support social enterprise (explored further in Action 7.2) will

further support the development of an innovation ecosystem.

The MTP Life Sciences Innovation Hub

The Western Australian Government have funded the establishment of three new innovation

hubs. The MTP Life Sciences Innovation Hub opened in 2017, in conjunction with the University

of Western Australia, Government of Western Australia and New Industries WA. The hub is

located at the University of Western Australia and has a focus on life sciences and MedTech

sector. This innovation hub works to provide training opportunities to attract and grow

innovation further. These are done with a range of organisations such as Engineers Australia

and Aus BioTech.

The strategy should also look at potential grant and mentoring programs as well as how to best

support STEM initiatives, for example through the provision of high-quality facilities that are

accessible to all local students. As a part of the strategy a youth advisory group should be

consulted to ensure that these hubs are youth friendly and encourage innovation.

Who? The development of an innovation ecosystem strategy, including appropriate evaluation and

monitoring of success, should be led by LGAs, coordinating implementation in collaboration with

the needs of industry and with support from the State Government.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced over the next

decade, under the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next three to five years

and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced immediately.

Action 7.2: Support social enterprise

The Upper Hunter region could benefit from social enterprises in the region and should be scoped

within an innovation ecosystem strategy. Social enterprises are business ventures that operate to

achieve a social outcome, whilst still being able to cover operating costs.138 They are greatly

beneficial to the region as they focus on building and delivering initiatives for a stronger

community while providing for local employment opportunities. Within the Upper Hunter region,

social enterprises have the potential to create greater community cohesion. Community focus

groups surfaced the need for greater community ownership over outcomes in the region, and that

this could be supported through social enterprises, that in turn would support community cohesion

and provide familiarity and pride.

The Victorian Government pioneered a social enterprise strategy to lead growth in labour force

participation and inclusive economic growth across the state. The strategy involves greater

coordination across government and social enterprises with focuses on increasing impact and

innovation, building capacity and improving market access. The ideal of this strategy is to ignite

new jobs within the economy.

138 Mission Australia, 2020, Social enterprise, available at: https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/what-we-do/employment-skills-training/social-enterprise

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Victoria Social Enterprise Strategy 139

The strategy involves eight initiatives:

1. Opening Doors for Social Enterprises: Government to support engagement and

participation by social enterprises. This includes a training program for government to

understand social enterprises.

2. Connecting the community: creation of an enterprise network.

3. Valuing Social Enterprise Impact: evaluation of social enterprise impact through data.

4. Building skills to grow business: skills development programs.

5. Assisting intermediaries: providing funding, mentoring business support.

6. Social procurement framework: to leverage public investment in supporting social

outcomes.

7. Social enterprise recognition: to help identify social enterprises.

8. Marketplace partnering: online Matching Platform and On-ground Events Calendar.

In the development of an innovation ecosystem strategy (as detailed in Action 7.1), support for

the formation of social enterprises should be undertaken. A similar stance to Victoria could be

taken with the inclusion of grants, training programs, mentorship and a network with other social

enterprises across New South Wales.

Young people have great potential in injecting the Upper Hunter with new ideas and technologies.

Therefore, catering social entrepreneurship initiatives to young people should be prioritised. Some

options include, partnering with youth groups, such as the Police and Community Youth Club

(PCYC), and schools to run social enterprise courses and mentorship programs.

Who? As detailed in Action 7.1, the strategy should enable an environment that supports

community ownership over outcomes in the region through social enterprises. To this end, this

action should be led by LGAs in close collaboration with community groups, business and industry,

with additional support from the State Government.

When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced over the next

decade, under the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next three to five years

and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced immediately.

7.8 Theme 8: Leverage existing endowments The Upper Hunter currently has several key infrastructure assets that help to facilitate the region’s

economic activity, including in the existing mining, energy and agriculture sectors. As the current

uses of these key infrastructure assets change over time, it is important that, where possible,

these assets and associated lands are repurposed or reutilised in order to maximise their

economic, social and environmental potential, and to assist in supporting opportunities for future

growth and diversification in the region.

Throughout the consultation process, it was noted in several instances that the current planning

processes and systems associated with the shutdown and rehabilitation of these assets often

create a lack of incentive to repurpose these assets for productive use. More specifically, there

appears to be less risk associated with proceeding with an ecological rehabilitation process, even if

the specific land or asset has the potential to be re-purposed for alternative productive uses, than

exploring alternative opportunities.

139 State Government of Victoria, Social Enterprise Strategy (2017)

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Action 8.1: Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer

lands

Currently, significant land reserves exist as buffer zones between mining, agricultural and urban

areas. As the region continues to diversify, there is potential for existing policy and land use

management strategies to be revisited to facilitate future economic diversity and sustainability.

Future options for land use management include considerations of potential conflicts between

industry sectors competing for similar resources. Engagement of stakeholders is necessary to

ensure viable economic, environmental and social outcomes. Engagement should include

discussion of consistent approaches and consideration of whether current processes and

rehabilitation approaches are and will be effective in the future to ensure a balanced approach.

An investigation of options for alternate land use within existing buffer zones should be undertaken

to identify the potential to further increase productivity, as well as to gauge the appetite among

the existing stakeholders and market participants around opportunities for industrial or commercial

uses.

This investigative process would need to involve the key landholders including miners and farmers,

as well as key state and Commonwealth government regulatory bodies. This process should seek

to determine the willingness or appetite of these landholders for rezoning and development, as

well as consider current safety and environmental regulatory settings. Incentives should also be

considered.

Outcomes of this process should outline implications of increased land use on demand for water

resources in the region, and the development of any plan should also align with other regional

development strategies – such a branding and tourism, and agriculture. Most importantly, the

implications for the local residential and farming community – for whom ‘buffer zones’ exist to

protect – would also need to be considered. This process could also test the market to determine

the level of demand for these lands from prospective private sector investors or developers.

The timing for implementing this action does not vary across the future economic scenarios for the

region, as this has the potential to immediately diversify the composition of the local economy in

any instance.

Who? This action should be led by the State Government, with collaborative input from a wide

range of stakeholder groups, including: LGAs, community groups and business and industry.

When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should take place within the

next three to five years and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced

immediately.

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Action 8.2: Explore potential use of existing electricity transmission network

infrastructure

Currently, the Upper Hunter has an extensive electricity transmission network. Despite the

scheduled closure of Liddell and Bayswater power stations, transmission network assets can

continue to provide ready access to the power grid into the future. This is advantageous given the

significant capital expenditure required to build new transmission infrastructure.

A technical study should be undertaken analysing the implications associated with connecting new

generation or storage to the current transmission network at various points in time. This is

essential to better understand investment opportunities in the region’s energy sector. Specifically,

it would determine potential capacity constraints on the network (especially if aiming to connect

while Liddell and Bayswater are operational) and if network upgrades are required to facilitate

increased load on the network.

Who? In order to ensure the success of the above identified action, this action should be led by

the State Government coordinating implementation with necessary technical advisors and industry

(especially TransGrid).

When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should be commenced over

the next three to five years, under the shock scenario this action should be commenced

immediately. More detailed analysis will also be required on a project-by-project basis.


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8 Potential governance

arrangements

No single community, or the problems they face, is the same. So, while there is no blueprint that

can be applied to manage the challenges the Upper Hunter region is facing, it is worth considering

how stakeholders can best support (and be supported) through the unprecedented change and

uncertainty of the region’s economic future as it unfolds.

8.1 Role of governance frameworks in community transition Traditional approaches to economic development typically rely on getting the fundamentals right

and waiting for the market forces and flow-on effects to reach communities. However, when deep

structural changes occur, they have far-reaching impacts that demand coordinated and efficient

responses.

The management of deep structural shocks demands high-level strategic coordination between all

levels of government, across agencies and stakeholder groups to ensure tailored and appropriate

support is delivered to the region.

Clear and coordinated governance models that reflect the needs of the region and its stakeholders

provide the foundation on which strategic and efficient economic and social support can be

delivered to the community throughout all stages of its transition.

8.2 Best practice governance principles In the context of a regional economic shock that results in significant structural change, the

development of a governance structure that is deeply connected to the needs of local community

and united under a clear policy rationale is integral to success. Ultimately, sustainable economic

growth is the result of efficiently developing and leveraging people (and their skills, knowledge,

and culture) and the structural assets and economy.

During the transition process, the success of a policy implementation that incorporates both macro

(high-level strategic response) and micro (local-level response) solutions requires clear

organisation and governance arrangements to ensure lines of accountability, responsibility,

authority, reporting and control processes are understood across both levels.

The development of a governance structure for the Upper Hunter region should be developed with

the following set of best practice principles and where possible incorporating the key lessons from

other regions that have navigated similar transitions.

Underlying principles of governance arrangements

While there exist multiple governance structures and models, an effective place-based approach to

managing the transition of the Upper Hunter will leverage the knowledge of communities (e.g.

from local industries and government bodies) to identify development potential of the region in

order to stimulate a progressive adjustment of the local economic system to the changing

economic environment. This knowledge then forms the basis for the investment logic and

prioritisation of responses that are evaluated by key decision-makers.

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Case Study: Queensland Communities in Transition (CiT)

The Queensland Department of Environment and Science (the Department) invested $1.5

million in CiT as a pilot program to support the delivery of the Climate Transition Strategy and

the Advancing Queensland Priorities. The Clean Growth Choices Consortium was formed to

assist the Department roll out CiT to Queensland communities. The consortium is made up of

institutes and universities from both the private and research sector – a partnership between

the University of Southern Queensland, James Cook University, CSIRO and the Ecoefficiency

Group.

The Clean Growth Choices consortium works with community leaders in regional and remote

Queensland communities – Cook Shire, Charters Towers, Rockhampton, Barcaldine, Central

Highlands and Goondiwindi – conducting community consultations, and leading to the delivery

of roadmaps and business cases in relation to options for sustainable economic, social and

community transition pathways.

The initial engagement enabled the identified communities to create a community profile,

identify pressures and opportunities, and assess potential development pathways. The second

stage of engagement enabled communities to prioritise the initial pathways and identify

prospective projects for business case development. As part of CiT, it is anticipated that this

information and the ultimate business cases will be used to attract investment (both public and

private) to assist the communities to shift onto a more resilient, and sustainable, economic

growth trajectory.

Key insights: Through the governance and policy process adopted by the pilot program,

communities were engaged through an inclusive and place-based process to understand

economic trends, discuss and play a key role their region’s future in the context of disruption

and change, including a future transition to a zero net emissions economy.

Guiding Principles

• An understanding of the impact (pressures and opportunities) of emerging trends on the

communities.

• An appropriate government response is supported by a compelling theory of change and

clear outcomes orientation (i.e. long-term sustainable economic development).

• Alignment between reporting measures/indicators and the performance objectives of the

policy rationale.

• Indicators are being tracked and reported.

• Mix of high-level strategic responses (top-down development policies), and local-level

responses (bottom-up development polices).

• Organisation and governance arrangements have been established and all individuals and

groups that have a role have been identified, and their lines of accountability,

responsibility, authority, reporting and control processes are understood.

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Case Study: Victorian Government, Latrobe Valley Authority

The sudden closure of both the Hazelwood coal-fired power plant and adjacent mines in 2017

led the Victorian Government to establish the intermediary agency called the Latrobe Valley

Authority (LVA) to support and manage the region’s transition process. The LVA provided

transition support for workers who lost their jobs due to the closures, promoted industry

diversification and growth, fostered the resilience of local businesses, and supported the

regeneration of the whole supply chain in the face of the inevitable decline of the economic

importance of coal for the region. Although the Authority sat within the state government, it

was autonomous in terms of setting priorities and allocating state aid for the transitional

process.

The Authority was also developed as a one-stop shop for businesses and community members

who needed support in the wake of the closure. This enabled stakeholders from any

background (i.e. community members, businesses, interest groups) who were not able to

navigate the existing governance network to directly approach the LVA for assistance and

tailored support.

In order to maximise its understanding of the transition process, the Authority developed a

selection of indicators to collect evidence about systemic change in the community – through

the development of the innovation strategy – using a Monitoring and Evaluation framework.

Although established by a top-down initiative, the success of the regional development

authority is considered largely due to its bottom-up approach to tackling challenges.

Key insights: Drawing on the LVA experience, the following are considered to be key success

factors for a transition authority:

• Governance needs to be inclusive:

– having a local team skilled and in direct relationships with the affected community

– working continually by building capacity and new projects step-by-step, putting

emphasis on long-term rather than short-term development

– using already existing local clusters and networks as a basis to further expand and

address new stakeholders.

• Make use of advance warning:

– effectively utilising any periods of advance warning of change is an effective impact-

mitigation and resilience-building measure

– work with local businesses that help lead the efforts, growing skills within the

community and building collaboration, cooperation and mutually beneficial partnerships

between key actors that previously operated in relative isolation.

8.3 Positioning for the future Looking ahead, clarity and collaboration will be key to positioning the Upper Hunter region for the

future. The governance structure required to implement the Roadmap needs to strike the right

balance between top-down, centralised development policies and bottom-up, local and regional

development policies. While there exists a network of governance bodies, including the Upper

Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group (which reports to the Hunter and Central Coast

Regional Leadership Executive) that have been established to support the transition; the extent to

which these bodies are aligned to specific transition outcomes (i.e. clear accountability) that have

been clearly articulated to local communities and businesses could be explored.

Considering this, there is scope for existing arrangements to be load tested (within the existing

network) and to consider the streamlining of the current network of community groups with the

view to support the delivery of structured policy, funding and decision-making that is accountable

for the region.

Ultimately, this approach will drive a proactive, rather than a reactive transition that enables the

region to leverage existing strengths and prepare for transition. Identifying how existing

governance and community networks can evolve to support the transition (before the region is

subjected to a serious economic shock) represents an opportunity for the Upper Hunter.

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The governance solution should consider:

Streamlining the existing network to identify a central body that understands the impact of

emerging trends on the region and is responsible for proactively managing the transition of the

Upper Hunter. In particular, this includes:

• monitoring and tracking transition events to identify the status of the transition in line with

the scenarios outlined in Chapter 6

• acting as a central touchpoint for community, business and industry to drive trust,

confidence and investment

• collecting and disseminating information to stakeholders • identifying an appropriate mix of strategic (top-down) and local-level (bottom-up)

responses as appropriate with the status of the region’s transition

• ensuring a collaborative and proactive governance model to specifically address issues of

economic change.

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9 Communications plan

A communications plan is crucial for creating a strategy for sending clear messages to

stakeholders and building consensus on the future of the Upper Hunter region. This section sets

out:

• the purpose of communications

• the steps for creating an effective communications plan

• a high-level communications plan for the Upper Hunter future project.

9.1 The purpose of communications Ongoing stakeholder engagement and robust governance arrangements are critical to support the

roadmap for inclusive growth for the Upper Hunter region. Without a specific communications plan,

the roadmap and the importance of the underlying economic scenarios may not be well understood

by the community and may result in the roadmap actions not being effectively implemented.

Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement and governance on Upper Hunter futures requires

strategic communications that:

• brings people together through an inclusive holistic message

• clearly articulates the potential of the future, recognising opportunities as well as challenges

• encourages participation by delegating actions and accountabilities within the community.

By bringing people together, communications can avoid creating a ‘winners and losers’ narrative to

change which can cause community friction. Focusing on the potential will engage stakeholders in

a positive collective vision which will help promote collaboration and the suspension of self-

interest. Participation by all in the community, and clear accountability for different stakeholder

groups for actions, will increase the likelihood of actions being undertaken and create a sense of

personal and collective ownership.

The stakeholder engagement that was undertaken as part of preparing this report indicates a high

level of interest by different stakeholders to actively participate in the ongoing dialogue about the

future of the region. This level of engagement is a key strength of the Upper Hunter community

that should be leveraged to implement the roadmap actions. There is also an expectation from

stakeholders that they will be meaningfully updated and engaged. A communications plan that is

fit-for-purpose must take this context into account and set this as a key objective.

9.2 Steps for creating an effective communications plan An effective communications plan requires:

1. Planning the engagement: The first step of a communications plan is to identify the key

objectives and messages that need to be communicated. This often involves significant internal

discussion to build consensus on the key messages, any risks of communication, the level of

detail required to effectively communicate the message and consideration of any sensitivities

with the key messages. This step should also include consideration of who is best placed to

communicate key messages, the influence that others can play in supporting key messages

and whether encouraging dialogue is important to meeting the objectives of the

communication.

2. Understanding the operating environment: The second step involves considering the

context in which an organisation will deliver its key messages. Communication does not occur

in a vacuum, and a communication plan should consider the formal and informal ways that an

organisation may already be communicating with its stakeholders. In addition, considering how

stakeholders already receive information from other organisations can help avoid duplicating

communication methods or messages, avoiding an ‘information overload’ for stakeholders.

3. Identifying stakeholders: The third step requires broad consideration of the different

stakeholder groups and the key messages that relate to each stakeholder group. In identifying

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each stakeholder, it is important to consider the concerns and challenges each group might

face but also the capability, expertise and resources that they can offer in owning and

supporting key messages. This might mean identifying different categories of stakeholders

within each stakeholder group, such as influencers, champions, critics or sceptics. This will also

help tailor communications with a greater focus on the most critical stakeholders, and a less

intensive approach for others.

4. Tailoring methods: The fourth step requires considering the methods that will best meet

individual stakeholder needs. Given the quantity of information that is available in our society

today and the ease of multimedia communications, community and stakeholder expectations

are high. This means that communications are expected to be engaging, well designed, use

visual and infographic formats and use plain language to communicate a message. There are

also expectations that communications are two-way and encourage input and dialogue from

different groups. Therefore, a range of methods should be considered when designing an

approach to meet the purpose of the communication and the needs of different stakeholder

groups.

5. Sharing findings and evaluations: A final but ongoing step requires a regular feedback loop

with stakeholders to ensure that communications are designed based on the stated needs of

stakeholder groups, recognition of previous input or consultation processes, and a proactive

evaluation of whether communication messages were received and if the purpose of the

communication was met.

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9.3 Indicative communications plan A communications plan is a document that captures the purpose and intended actions. Based on this report and the roadmap actions, the following steps

and actions should form the basis of the communications plan.

Theme Action Sept 2020- Dec 2020

Jan 2021-June 2021

Beyond

Plan our engagement Internal team discussion about the report and its recommendations

Identify the key messages that need to be communicated and set a clear purpose for the communications plan

Based on report recommendations, develop an action plan with who should be involved for taking actions forward *

Consider whether the report will be publicly released

Understand operating environment

Understand the existing mechanisms for stakeholder engagement. Analyse and understand whether they are fit for purpose and meeting their objectives

Identify stakeholders Ascertain which groups need to be informed about the report and develop an action plan **

Send emails to thank stakeholder groups for participating in consultations with a feedback form ***

Tailor stakeholder engagement methods

From feedback and current state analysis, develop a stakeholder engagement plan

Consider how to disseminate report findings and recommendations to stakeholder groups ****

From report recommendations, decide if working groups should be formed to take actions forward

Develop Terms of Reference for each working group

Develop catered dissemination material for each stakeholder group

Develop a social media plan to engage young people, including expression of interest for a youth advisory panel

Share the Findings Release materials to stakeholder groups

Release an expression of interest for working groups that have been identified in the actions

Form community working groups and inform them of their role

Evaluation Provide feedback forums for stakeholders and the public

Map effectiveness of dissemination

Determine how to continuously engage stakeholders

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* The action plan should involve how to address each of the recommendations, who should be involved and who should be informed

** Key groups that should be considered are those Deloitte approached in focus group discussions. These include Indigenous Australians, education and training providers (including industry representatives), social and community service providers, and the four Councils of the region. Other groups to consider include the general public, young people and health and mental health providers.

*** Provide a feedback form to stakeholders to consider how they want to engage moving forward

**** Examples could be creating a one-page document of report recommendations to upload on the DRNSW or UP website

***** From recommendations, working groups should include skills and training, community, social and health services. As per section 7.5 a youth advisory panel that acts as a sub working group in each working group should be considered.

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Appendices


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– Stakeholder

Engagement Plan

Below are those who attended one-on-one or focus group consultations, as part of the stakeholder

engagement component.

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Stakeholder Engagement Plan

Upper Hunter Futures

Current as at 17 July 2020

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2© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Contents

CONFIDENTIAL

Section Page

1. Stakeholder engagement overview 4

2. Stakeholder identification 7

3. Stakeholder consultation plans 10

• Overview 11-12

• One-on-one consultation overview 13

• Focus Group overview 17

• Council Focus Group 19

• Education Focus Group 23

• Peak Body Focus Group 28

• Social Focus Group

• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Focus Group

33

38

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3© 2020 Deloitte Access Economics. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

1. Stakeholder engagement overview

CONFIDENTIAL

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1. Introduction

CONFIDENTIAL

Purpose

The purpose of the stakeholder engagement plan is to outline the approach and plan to engage and

evaluate stakeholder consultations. Careful stakeholder engagement planning will ensure valuable

insights are gained from a variety of priority stakeholders.

This plan includes:

• Overview of stakeholder engagement: including the purpose, and terms of reference, intended

outcomes and consultation principles

• Identification of stakeholders: this includes development of a stakeholder matrix and how

stakeholders were prioritised.

• Stakeholder consultation plan: including how consultations will be organised and conducted,, and

the approach for the consultations.

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1. Overview of stakeholder engagement

CONFIDENTIAL

Our approach

Our approach to stakeholder engagement will be to study the current state, to provide us a basis in

identifying key stakeholders to consult with. Our consultations will be based around identifying

needs, through a collective vision, and then identifying capabilities which could enable opportunity

in the Upper Hunter region.

To understand who the key stakeholders are

of the Upper Hunter Region, and what their

needs and priorities are. This review will

include:

• Conducting desktop research to understand

stakeholders, their particular contexts and

relationship to the Upper Hunter Region.

Creating a stakeholder map to illustrate the

ecosystem of stakeholders.

• An assessment of consultations that have

occurred in the past and key findings that

have emerged from them.

To thematically collate stakeholders’ perspectives

on land use and infrastructure investment to

create a bigger picture ‘Upper Hunter Vision from

the People.’ This will be done through:

• Applying a thematic analysis to the stakeholder

consultations we will streamline and analyse

feedback. These themes will include; vision,

barriers, diversification, enablers and partnerships.

• Each stakeholder consultation will focus on

meeting the relevant objectives in each identified

thematic group.

Collective Vision

To identify and prioritise the voices of stakeholders

who may have been excluded from previous

consultations. This process will include:

• Identifying, from the current state review, which

groups have been underrepresented and for what

reason.

• Conducting further research to identify other

stakeholders who could enable opportunity in the

region, to include in consultations.

• Applying

o identify prioritization of these

stakeholders.

• Filtering process - Utilising the Stakeholder Matrix,

we are able to identify the types of stakeholders

and how to best engage with them. This will

enable us to prioritize consultations given the

timeframe.

Identifying Key Stakeholders

To identify the key roles different

stakeholders play in providing job

opportunity and social participation. This

will include:

• Gearing certain consultations towards

stakeholders who can enable economic

growth and job opportunity within the

region.

• Identifying of potential

capabilities/partnerships and how they

could fit into the future of the Upper

Hunter Region.

Key Enablers for Workforce

Current State Review

ConsultationsPre-consultations

4(d)

4(d)

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1. Overview of stakeholder engagement

CONFIDENTIAL

Engagement principles

Developing key principles for consultations creates a shared understanding among all parties

regarding the approach that will be adopted.

Five consultation principles will guide this project. These principles will drive how we approach

the stakeholder engagement process and conduct our consultations.

These principles are particularly important given the impacts of COVID-19 on numerous

organisations and businesses. The principles and our associated actions have been

summarised in below.

Community vibrancy & inclusion charter

Principle Our practice

Targeted and Tailoredto be respectful of stakeholder’s time, and the unique insights they

bring

Represents Valueto ensure there are clear outcomes for the Department, and a cost-

effective approach is adopted

Clear and consistent messaging

so all stakeholders understand the role of the consultation process, expected outputs and outcomes,

Designed for impactso the right people are engaged and there is a focus on issues of

contention and hearing new or marginalised voices

Flexibleso that people can contribute to the process without compromising their other commitments

Engagement charter

In order to assist with these considerations,

based on our experience in working on transformational

projects. The tool identifies a number of factors that are key to ensuring that investment

is accessible by the community, delivers on community benefits and provides

opportunities for community activation and fosters a sense of belonging.

The charter identifies factors that must be considered in considering broad social inclusion

and community vibrancy. Although economic activity, industry and employment are key

focus areas for the Upper Hunter project, the framework in describing and assessing the

other factors and barriers that exclude certain groups. These factors will be used as key

questions in stakeholder engagement, especially to explore mitigation of societal costs.

As a social planning tool, the framework also identifies practical measures, based on

existing practice and data, that can inform the future vision for the Upper Hunter Region.

Measu

res Access Belonging Activation

Facto

rs

• Physical

Affordability

• Information

• Services

• Safety

• Diversity

• Spaces

• Interaction

• Participation

• Identity

• Economic

productivity

• Employment

Education

• Housing

Do

main

Example

measures:

Concessions,

Available

amenities

Example

measures:

Availability of

space for

community

Example

measures:

Workforce

participation by

groups

4(d)

4(d)

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2. Stakeholder identification

CONFIDENTIAL

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2. Identification of stakeholders

CONFIDENTIAL

Stakeholder mapping

There are numerous stakeholders involved, interested and impacted by the economic diversification of

the Upper Hunter. The following maps out these stakeholders, and the roles they are expected to play.

Stakeholder Map

Key Stakeholder Groups

• Community stakeholders – these are the people and

organisations that will be ultimately impacted by changes

in the economic diversification of the Upper Hunter, and

thus have a direct interest. Community and stakeholder

input will directly shape the project, informing and

responding to the communications approach.

• Key stakeholders – Stakeholders who have control over

the decisions being made or whose support is required to

achieve outcomes, such as government departments and

agencies who have a direct interest from a whole-of-

government perspective.

• Impacted stakeholders– Stakeholders who will be

directly impacted by decisions, such as industry sectors

including mining and agriculture, and key advocacy

groups with high membership and influence.

Community of the Upper Hunter

Working Group

PCG

Singleton Shire Council

Upper Hunter Shire Council

Muswellbrook Council Dungog Shire Council

AGL

Hunter Region

Employment Facilitator

Member for the

Upper Hunter

NSW Crown

Lands Commissioner

Investors

Hunter and Central Coast

Development Corporation

Hunter Regional

Leadership Group (RLG)

Agrifutures

Group Executive

Hunter

Valley Network,

ARTC

Port of Newcastle

Business &

Industry (Mining/coal)

Federal Government

Department of Planning I

Industry and Environment

RDA

Transport for NSW

NSW Dept. of

Primary Industries

Singleton Army Base

Destination NSW

Committee for

the Hunter

HunterNet

Hunter

Business Chamber

Hunter Renewal

Local Chambers

of Commerce

Australian Stock

Horse Society

Hunter Thoroughbred

Breeders Association

Upper Hunter Community Services

Upper Hunter Community-

Social Capital & Community Voice

Racing NSWCordina Group

University of Newcastle

Newcastle Institute for

Energy and Resources (NIER

Training Services NSW

NSW Department

of Education

Scone Equine Hospital

NSW Health

(Hunter New England

Health District)

HMRI

Glencore

Yancoal

Hunter Valley

Coal Chain

Coordinator

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2. Identification of stakeholders

CONFIDENTIAL

Stakeholder matrix

As investigated above, there are numerous stakeholders the following outlines our approach to

determining who to prioritise engagement with and also how to best engage these stakeholders

High Power, High Interest

Key player

Engage closely

High Power, Low Interest

Meet their needs

Keep satisfied

Low Power, High Interest

Show consideration

Keep informed

Low Power, Low Interest

Least important

Minimal engagement

Interest of stakeholders

Infl

uen

ce\P

ow

er

of

stakeh

old

ers

Stakeholder type Approach

High Power, Low

Interest

• Involve in decision‐making and governance bodies

• Consult regularly through direct engagement and

face-to-face meetings

• Briefings, where necessary.

High Power, High

Interest

• Engage and consult on interest areas

• Aim to increase interest

• Keep informed

Low Power, Low

Interest

• Communications plan targets this wider audience to

ensure appropriate coverage

• Dissemination of informative written collateral

• Information sessions, where necessary

Low Power, High

Interest

• Communications plan targets this wider audience to

ensure appropriate coverage

• Dissemination of informative written collateral

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3. Stakeholder Consultation Plans

CONFIDENTIAL

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3. Stakeholder consultation plan overview

CONFIDENTIAL

Introduction

Given the diverse number of stakeholders identified, the project timeframe, and the many forms

stakeholder consultation can take, we have proposed two key methods of engagement: targeted

one-on-one meetings and focus groups. Each of these methods are detailed below and the way in

which this supports the identified stakeholder cohort.

Purpose of targeted one-on-one meetings

To provide deep insights on the topics and detailed discussion. Method will be most useful for

engaging with senior stakeholders and those identified as being high influence and high interest

Purpose of focus groups

To promote interaction between different organisations/individuals to discuss particular issues or themes. This can be helpful to draw out nuances and tease out differences of opinions.

Each of the focus groups incorporate a pre-work activity for participants. This pre-work acts as a baseline to understand how each participant views each of the key themes and helps to ensure active engagement.

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3. Stakeholder consultation plan overview – key themes

CONFIDENTIAL

Stakeholder consultation themes

Stakeholder consultations will be thematic, ensuring meaningful engagement and consultation. The

following outlines our proposed consultation themes.

Key themes Description

Confirming the envisioned future of the Upper Hunter Region and how it will function and look like.

Surfacing how economic diversification of the Upper Hunter Region could be navigated, taking into

account key processes, risks and timeframes

Identifying barriers to employment, social inclusion and training within the Upper Hunter region and

what mechanisms could reduce/mitigate these and provide more accessibility, both in the context of

diversification and more broadly

Identifying capabilities and opportunities stakeholders could provide to enhance economic growth,

job opportunity and greater special participation in the Upper Hunter Region

Identifying opportunities for partnerships with stakeholders, both within and out of the community,

who could provide more opportunity within the Upper Hunter Region. Exploring how these

opportunities would provide impact.

Vision

Barriers (social, employment & training)

Diversification

Key Enablers / Infrastructureneeds

Partnerships

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14© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CONFIDENTIAL

One-on-one consultations

Stakeholder Key Contact Draft Questions Themes Attended/Contribut

ed (Y/N)

Member for

the Upper

Hunter

This meeting will be a combination of a briefing on the project and an interview.• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?• What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?• What are the most critical areas of economic development?• What industries can best leverage the existing regional workforce?• What are the top three infrastructure requirements to support the region?

Y

AGL

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• What are the current plans for re-purposing the Liddell and Bayswater sites? What stage of

development are those plans at, and what is the market interest? Are there any barriers to achieving

those plans?• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within

the region? Is additional infrastructure required? Is government support required?• How can the Liddell and Bayswater sites act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries

elsewhere in the region?

Y

Glencore

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• Based on what we know today, what might the mining industry look like in the Upper Hunter in 5, 10

and 15 years’ time?• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to mining buffer lands?• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to rehabilitated mining lands?• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within

the region? Is additional infrastructure required? Is government support required?• How can the mining industry act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries elsewhere in the

region?

Y

DPIE Water

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• Is water access an enabler or barrier to economic activity, and how does this vary across the Upper

Hunter? How might this change over the next 5, 10 and 15 years?• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within

the region? • Is additional infrastructure required to facilitate economic diversification?

Y

Key Enablers /

Infrastructure needs

Vision

Barriers

Vision

Barriers

Barriers

Vision

Diversification

3(a) and 3(b)

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15© 2020 Deloitte Touche T CONFIDENTIAL

One-on-one consultations

Stakeholder Key Contact Draft Questions Themes Attended/Contributed (Y/N)

Newcastle

Institute for

Energy and

Resources

(NIER)

• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter?• What are the key advantages of the Upper Hunter, relative to other regions, in terms of its industries or

businesses, infrastructure and people?• What are the key opportunities for the Upper Hunter region, based on its existing industries and

infrastructure?• What might be the barriers in realising those opportunities? What could be done to address them?• What are the current research initiatives relevant to the Upper Hunter?• What are the current operations at UoN Upper Hunter? Are there future opportunities or uses for the

site? Are there further opportunities for non-site specific collaboration?• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within

the region? Is additional infrastructure required? Is government support required?• What (if any) are the barriers to regional supply chains? Can regional supply chains be leveraged to

support new industry development?

Y

Arrowfield

Stud

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• What are the economic linkages of the equine industry throughout the Upper Hunter region and

beyond? • What is your vision for the industry in the Upper Hunter?• What are the infrastructure and land use needs/priorities? • What makes the Upper Hunter attractive or unattractive from an investment perspective? What are the

barriers to investment?• How does the development of Upper Hunter align with the future of businesses in the industry?

Y

NSW Minerals

Council

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• Based on what we know today, what might the mining industry look like in the Upper Hunter in 5, 10

and 15 years’ time?• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to mining buffer lands?• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to rehabilitated mining lands?• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within

the region? Is additional infrastructure required? Is government support required?• How can the mining industry act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries elsewhere in the

region?

Y

Hunter

Business

Attraction

Committee

• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?• What is your vision for the industry in the Upper Hunter?• How does the development of Upper Hunter align with the future of businesses in the industry?

Y

Vision

Barriers

Diversification

Partnerships

Vision

Barriers

Partnerships

Vision

Barriers

Vision

Partnerships

3(a) and 3(b)

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Focus Groups Summary

CONFIDENTIAL

Focus Groups across the Upper Hunter

Key stakeholder

groups

Consultation

pathway

Identified bodies Themes

Upper Hunter

Councils Focus

Group

Focus groups • Singleton Council

• Muswellbrook Shire Council

• Upper Hunter Shire Council



Education Focus

Group

Focus groups • Training Services NSW

• Hunter TAFE

• Dept of Education

• RDA Hunter

• Hunter Region Employment Facilitator

• University of Newcastle


Peak Bodies and

Businesses Focus

Group

Focus groups • Committee for the Hunter

• HunterNet

• Hunter Business Chamber

• AI Group

• DRNSW

Key Enablers /

Infrastructure needsVision

Barriers Diversification

Key EnablersVision


Vision


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Focus Groups Summary

CONFIDENTIAL

Focus Groups across the Upper Hunter

Key stakeholder

groups

Consultation

pathway

Identified bodies Themes

Social and Human

Services Focus

Group

Focus groups • NSW Health (Hunter New England Health District)

• NSW Police (Hunter Valley Police District)

• Upper Hunter Community Services

• Compass Housing

• Hunter Renewal


• Singleton Family Support

Aboriginal &

Torres Strait

Islander Focus

Group

Focus Groups • Wonnarua Nation

• Tocomwall

• Blackrock Industries

• Hunter Valley Aboriginal Corporation

• Aboriginal Employment Strategy

• Barkuma

• Karuah Local Aboriginal Land Council

• Mindaribba Local Aboriginal Land Council

• Upper Hunter Community Services

• Ungooroo Aboriginal Corporation

Key EnablersVision

Barriers

Key Enablers /

Infrastructure needsVision


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Workshop background

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with the Dungog, Muswellbrook, Singleton and Upper

Hunter Shire Councils on the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic

diversification and resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other

plans currently underway, including the review of the Hunter Regional Plan and the work of

the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group.

Workshop time

Wednesday 8 July 2020, 11.00am – 12.30pm

Platform: Zoom.

Workshop objectives

• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of region

• Agree and identify critical barriers to economic diversification

• Prioritise action and investment

Key themes and

lines of enquiry

Achieving economic diversification

Current barriers and challenges to economic diversity

Skills and training

Land use

Social impact

Engagement charter – invited attendees

Participants Role Attended/Contri

buted (Y/N)

Dung

og S

hir

e

Co

unci

l

Y

Y

Up

per

Hunte

r Shir

e

Co

unci

l

Y

Y

Y

Musw

ellb

roo

k

Shir

e C

ounci

l

Y

Y

Sin

gle

ton C

ounci

l Y

Y

Y

Hunte

r

Join

t

Org

anis

a

tio

n

Y

Upper Hunter Councils Focus Group

3(a) and 3(b)

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Workshop approach

The workshop will be conducted virtually via the Zoom platform. In order to keep participants

engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated discussion, the chat function and menti to elicit

written responses. To facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name

individually to ensure all voices are heard.

A “sprint” approach will be used to split the workshop into discreet areas of discussion to ensure

that we cover the breadth of issues.

We will also seek brief information from participants prior to the workshop. This won’t be labour

intensive to encourage response. This approach helps participants prepare and collect their

thoughts in advance, which results in more productive discussion on the day.


Agenda

Session Time

1. Welcome and introductions 11.00am – 11.10am

2. Quick overview 11.10am –11.15am

3. Discussion area 1 :Key challenges and achieving economic

diversification

11.15am – 11.40am

4. Discussion area 2: Skills and training 11.40am – 11.55am

5. Discussion area 3: Land Use 11.55am – 12.10pm

6. Discussion area 4: Social impact 12.10pm –12.25pm

7. Wrap up discussion and next steps 12.25pm – 12.30pm

Pre-workshop email

Dear [insert name],

Thank you for your participation in the workshop next Wednesday 8 July at 11.00am.

Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of zoom

(chat function, slide presentation etc) so ask that participants join by videoconference not teleconference.

To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion areas that

we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of issues.

In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to set

the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by midday Tuesday 7 July. Only one

or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on the key issues

during the workshop.

• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?

• What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?

• What are the most critical areas of agreement and conflict in economic development?

• What social impacts need to be considered or addressed through economic diversification?

• What are the top three infrastructure requirements and actions by governments to support economic

diversification?

We look forward to seeing you on Wednesday.

Regards,

Etc.

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Workshop Plan

Session Time Purpose Materials/Approach Facilitator

Welcome 11.00am Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

from, one word for today”

Quick overview 11.10am • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project

• Introduce ‘parking space’ for important issues that can’t be explored in workshop

• Set the scene by presenting pre-work to group

Slide with agenda and

objectives.

Slide presenting

information from pre-

work.

Discussion area 1:

Economic

Diversification

11.15am Get Council perspective on the following issues:

• What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction in the region?

What factors have impeded economic diversification to date?

• What are the key factors of advantage within each Council area that could be leveraged in

achieving economic diversification?

• What are the future priority sectors across each Council area in supporting economic

diversification? What industries best match the region’s factors of advantage?

• How can legacy mining assets be leveraged to support future economic diversification? What

are the genuine opportunities?

• How critical is increasing economic linkages with the Lower Hunter in supporting future

economic diversification? How can economic linkages be enhanced?

• How may water security across the region impact the achievement of economic

diversification?

Facilitated plenary

discussion


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Workshop Plan (cont.)


Discussion area

2: Skills and

Training


• What industries are likely to be able to best leverage the education and skills of existing

workers in the region?

• What are the critical skills gaps among the regional workforce? What key training programs

are required, and how should these be delivered?

• Does the regional have the requisite training facilities to support the needs of future

industries?

Post-it chat function –

write down three each

individually.

Menti or plenary

discussion to prioritise for

region

Discussion area

3: Land Use


• What are the key land use issues affecting economic development in each Council area?

• How are land use planning arrangements supporting (or impeding) regional investment? Are

there specific changes required to support investment attraction?

• How may mining rehabilitation impact future economic development in the region? What are

the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?

Facilitated discussion

Discussion area

4: Social impacts

12.10pm Get Council perspective on the following issues:

• What are the key community aspirations for economic diversification? Are these viable?

• What would be the social and community impacts of reduced industry activity and available

jobs?

• What programs are needed to support more young people and Indigenous Australians into

the workforce?

• What can be done to encourage young people to stay, work and play in the Upper Hunter?

Post-it chat function –

write down three each

individually.

Menti or plenary

discussion to prioritise for

region

Wrap up and

next steps

12.25pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed.

• Provide a forum for identifying any data or information to be shared from participants

Plenary discussion


3(a) and 3(b)

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Education Focus Group

CONFIDENTIAL

Workshop background

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of education and training stakeholders as

part of the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic diversification and

resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other plans currently

underway, including the review of the Hunter Regional Plan and the work of the Upper Hunter

Economic Diversification Working Group.

Workshop time

• Monday 27 July 2020, 1:30pm – 3:00pm

• Platform: Zoom

Workshop objectives

• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of education and

employment across the region

• Identify critical barriers to community uptake of education, access to employment and

potential to re-skill the labour force

• Identify partnerships and programs that can be leveraged to provide better outcomes in

these areas

Key themes and

lines of enquiry

Current and future barriers and challenges to employment and

education

Skills and re-training

Partnerships to deliver better outcomes

Engagement charter

Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed (Y/N)

University of

Newcastle

N

Y

Training

Services NSW

N

Y

Hunter TAFE Y

Department

of Education

N

RDA Hunter Y

Hunter

Region

Employment

Facilitator

Y

Hunter Joint

Organisation

Y

3(a) and 3(b)

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Workshop approach


engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated discussions and virtual post it discussions. To

facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name individually to ensure all

voices are heard.






Agenda

Session Time

1. Welcome and introductions 1:30pm – 1:35pm

2. Quick overview 1:35pm – 1:40pm

3. Discussion area 1 : Skills and re-training 1:45pm – 2:15pm

4. Discussion area 2: Current and future needs and challenges 2:15pm – 2:35pm

5. Discussion area 3: Partnerships to deliver better outcomes 2:35pm – 2:50pm

6. Wrap up discussion and next steps 2:50pm – 3:00pm

Pre-workshop email

Dear [insert name],

Thank you for your participation in the workshop next [insert date and time].

Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of

zoom (chat function, slide presentation etc) so ask that participants join by videoconference not

teleconference.

To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion

areas that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of

issues.

In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following

questions to set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by [insert

midday before date of workshop]. Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the

following questions. This will help us focus on the key issues during the workshop.

• What do you see as emerging (both education-focused and industry-focused) opportunities in

the region?

• What are the most critical education and training needs for the regional workforce?

• What are the most critical skills gaps in the region in terms of attracting new industries?

• What are the biggest skill or training barriers to workers transitioning between sectors?

• What are key barriers in accessing (either in-person or online) education and training courses

in the region?

• What key actions are required to promote greater community uptake of education?

• Which partnerships can be further developed or leveraged to deliver better regional education

and employment outcomes?

We look forward to seeing you on [insert workshop day].

Regards,


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Workshop plan


Welcome 1:30pm – 1:35pm Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where


Quick overview 1:35pm – 1:40pm • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project




objectives.

Slide presenting

information from pre-work.

Discussion area 1:

Skills and re-

training

1:45pm – 2:15pm Get perspectives on the following issues:

• What are the key skills and training strengths of the region? What industries are likely to be able to

best leverage the education and skills of existing workers in the region?

• What are the most critical education and training needs for regional industry and businesses, both

now and into the future?

• What are the industry-specific training programs are required, and how should these be delivered?

Specifically, what training is required to assist workers seeking to transition between key industries?

• Does the regional have access to the requisite training facilities (including online e-training platforms)

to support the needs of future industries?


Discussion area

2: Current and

future needs and

challenges


• What are the key barriers to accessing education and training in the region? Are the barriers more

pronounced for specific cohorts – e.g. younger residents (15-24 years), older workers (45 years and

over) and Indigenous Australians? How might this change in the future? How can these barriers be

addressed?

• To what extent is access education and training programs impeding workers’ ability to transition

between industries and occupations?

• What is the future vision for the community in terms of education- both vocational and tertiary - and

upskilling of workers?



3(a) and 3(b)

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Workshop plan (cont.)


Discussion area

3: Partnerships

to deliver better

outcomes

2:35pm – 2:50pm Get perspective on the following issues:

• Which current and future partnerships can be further developed or leveraged to achieve

better education and employment outcomes?

• Are there any specific examples of successful partnerships?

• How are education providers and industry currently partnering to ensure the specific training

needs of industry are delivered? What, if any, improvements are required?

• What are factors that could promote greater community uptake of education?


Wrap up and

next steps2:50pm – 3:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise opportunities not already discussed.


Plenary discussion


3(a) and 3(b)

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Peak Industry Bodies and Businesses Focus Group

CONFIDENTIAL

Workshop background

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of peak industry bodies and businesses as

stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic




Workshop time

• Tuesday, 28 July 2020 2:30-4:00pm

• Platform: Zoom

Workshop objectives

• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of the region

• Understand key barriers to, and opportunities for, regional economic diversification

• What are the key policy, infrastructure investment and industry attraction actions necessary

to enable the region to fulfil its economic potential

Key themes and

lines of enquiry

Current and future barriers and challenges to industry attraction and

economic diversity

Achieving economic diversification

Skills and training

Land use

Fulfilling the region’s potential

Engagement charter

Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed

(Y/N)

Committee

for the

Hunter

Y

HunterNet Y

Hunter

Business

Chamber

Y

AI Group Y

DRNSW Y

3(a) and 3(b)

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Workshop approach




voices are heard.






Agenda

Session Time

1. Welcome and introductions 2:30pm – 2:35pm

2. Quick overview 2:35pm – 2:40pm

3. Discussion area 1: Achieving economic diversification 2:40pm – 2:55pm

4. Discussion area 2: Barriers and challenges to economic diversity 2:55pm – 3:10pm

5. Discussion area 3: Skills and training 3:10pm – 3:25pm

6. Discussion area 4: Land use considerations 3:25pm – 3:40pm

7. Discussion area 5: Fulfilling the region’s potential 3:40pm – 3:55pm

8. Wrap up discussion and next steps 3:55pm – 4:00pm

Pre-workshop email

Dear [insert name],

Thank you for your participation in the workshop next [insert date and time].



teleconference.

To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion areas

that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of issues.

In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to

set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by [insert midday before

date of workshop]. Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This

will help us focus on the key issues during the workshop.

• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?

• What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?

• What are the most critical areas of economic development?

• What industries can best leverage the existing regional workforce skills?

• What are the top three infrastructure requirements and actions by governments to support

economic diversification?

We look forward to seeing you on [insert day of the workshop].

Regards,

Etc.


Released by D

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IPA Act. Ref: G

IPA 21-61 - IR


Workshop Plan


Welcome 2:30pm – 2:35pm Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where


Quick overview 2:35pm – 2:40pm • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project




objectives.

Slide presenting


work.

Discussion area 1:

Achieving

economic

diversification


• What are the key regional factors/strengths of advantage that can be leveraged to support

economic diversification?

• What industries best match the region’s factors of advantage?

• How can legacy mining assets be leveraged to support future economic diversification? What

are the genuine opportunities?

• How critical is increasing economic linkages with Newcastle, and the Lower Hunter in general,

in supporting future economic diversification? How can the region leverage its proximity to

Newcastle to support economic diversification?


Discussion area 2:

Barriers and

challenges to

economic

diversity


• What are the key barriers to economic development in the region?

• What are the key factors impeding regional investment attraction?

• What, if any, are the key regional infrastructure investment gaps?

• How may water security across the region impact the achievement of economic

diversification?



3(a) and 3(b)

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Discussion area

3: Skills and

training


• What industries are likely to be able to best leverage the education and skills of existing

workers in the region?

• What are the critical skills gaps among the regional workforce? What are the training needs of

those industries considered to be most prospective?

• What key training programs are required to re-deploy workers, and how should these be

delivered?

• Does the regional have the requisite access to training facilities/institutions (including online e-

training) to support the needs of future industries?


Discussion area

4: Land use

considerations


• What are the key land use issues affecting industry development and business attraction in the

region? Is this a key issue for business and industry?

• Are there specific changes required to land use planning arrangements to support investment

attraction?

• Are there specific issues relating to mining buffer zones and mine site rehabilitation practices

impacting industry attraction?

• What are the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?


Discussion area

5: Fulfilling the

region’s

potential


• What are the critical infrastructure investments needed to support the region in fulfilling its

potential? What government policy actions are required? What investment attraction activities

are necessary?

• What opportunities are emerging for the region as a result of the changes to workplace

arrangements from COVID-19? How can the region position itself in a post-COVID world?


Wrap up and

next steps3:55pm – 4:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise opportunities not already discussed.


Plenary discussion


3(a) and 3(b)

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Social and Human Services Focus Group

Workshop background

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of social and community service providers

as stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic




Workshop time

• Friday 24 July 2020, 9:30am – 11:00am

• Platform: Zoom

Workshop objectives

• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of social and human

services in the region

• Identify partnerships and programs that can be leveraged to provide better outcomes in

these areas

• Identify possible services and infrastructure to improve social outcomes in the region

Key themes and

lines of enquiry

Future vision for the community

Current and future opportunities and partnerships

Services and infrastructure needed to improve social outcomes

Engagement charter


NSW Health

(Hunter New

England Health

District)

N

NSW Police

(Singleton Police

Station)

Y

Upper Hunter

Community

Services

Y

Compass Housing Y

Hunter Renewal Y

New Economies

Network

Y

Dungog Shire

Council

N

Department of

Regional NSW

N

Singleton Family

Support

Y

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Workshop approach




voices are heard.






Agenda

Session Time

1. Welcome and introductions 9:30am – 9:40am

2. Quick overview 9:40am – 9:45am

3. Discussion area 1: Vision for the community 9:45am – 10:15am

4. Discussion area 2: Services and infrastructure needed to improve

social outcomes10:15am – 10:30am

5. Discussion area 3: Current and future opportunities and partnerships 10:30am – 10:45am

6. Wrap up discussion and next steps 10:45am – 11:00am

Pre-workshop email

Dear (Insert name),

We look forward to your participation in the workshop on Friday 24 July at 9:30am.



teleconference. To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with three key

discussion areas that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth

of issues.


set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by midday Thursday 23 July.

Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on

the key issues during the workshop.

• What is your vision of an inclusive community going forward?

• What is one key change or investment needed to deliver the vision?

• What are the three most important social issues in the region?

• What do you see as the barriers to social inclusion in the region?

• How can young people be encouraged to stay in the region?

We look forward to seeing you on Friday.

Kind Regards,


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Workshop Plan


Welcome 9:30am – 9:40am Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where


Quick overview 9:40am – 9:45am • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project




objectives.

Slide presenting


work.

Discussion area 1:

Vision for the

community

9:45am – 10:15am Get perspectives on the following issues:


• Who are the key cohorts of focus in the region in your opinion?

• What are the barriers to social inclusion, employment or education? How can these be

addressed?

• What are the expected social and community impacts from the economic diversification

expected in the region?



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Discussion area

2: Requisite

infrastructure

and services


• What are the needs for housing, health, social and community services and are these

inclusive?

• What is the current state of social and community services? Are their gaps?

• Does the region have the requisite facilities to support the needs of the community?

• What community events, services or infrastructure would help create more equitable and

inclusive outcomes?

• What can be done to encourage young people to stay, work and play in the Upper Hunter?

• What programs are needed to support more young people and Indigenous Australians into

the workforce?


Discussion area

3: Current and

future

opportunities

and partnerships


• What are the current partnerships in place to support the community and can these be

leveraged further?

• What are the partnerships in place to support young adults in particular?

• What are the partnerships in place to support Indigenous Australians?

• Are there examples of strong social networks across the region?

• Are there new opportunities for partnerships across or beyond the Upper Hunter region?


Wrap up and

next steps10:45am – 11:00am • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed.


Plenary discussion


3(a) and 3(b)

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Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Focus Group

Workshop background

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of social and community service providers

as stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic




Workshop time

• Tuesday 28 July 2020, 11.00am – 1:00pm

• Venue: Singleton TBC

Workshop objectives

• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of issues

• Understand key opportunities for greater social inclusion for Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islander communities

• Identify key policy, investment, infrastructure and services necessary to improve outcomes

Key themes and

lines of enquiry

Future vision for the community

Current and future opportunities and partnerships

Services and infrastructure needed to improve social outcomes

Engagement charter


Wanaruah Local Aboriginal

Land Council

Y

Wonnarua Nation Y

Tocomwall N

Blackrock Industries N

Hunter Valley Aboriginal

Corporation

Y

Aboriginal Employment

Strategy

N

Barkuma N

Karuah Local Aboriginal

Land Council

N

Mindaribba Local

Aboriginal Land Council

N

Upper Hunter Community

Services

N

Ungooroo Aboriginal

Corporation

Y

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Workshop approach

The workshop will be conducted in person in Singleton using butchers' papers, post its and markers

to prompt discussion. In order to keep participants engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated

discussion, individual and group work. To facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on

participants by name individually to ensure all voices are heard.






Agenda

Session Time

1. Welcome, acknowledgement of country and introductions 11:00am – 11:15am

2. Quick overview 11:15am – 11:30am

3. Discussion area 1: Vision for the community and young people 11:30am – 11:50am

4. Discussion area 2: Land use and environment 11:50am – 12:10pm

5. Discussion area 3: Current and future opportunities and partnerships 12:10pm – 12:30pm

6. Wrap up discussion, next steps and light lunch 12:30pm – 1:00pm

Pre-workshop email

Dear (Insert name),

We look forward to your participation in the workshop on Tuesday 28 July at 11:00am.

Please see the attached agenda. To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an

agenda with three key discussion areas that we will explore in 20 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that

we cover the breadth of issues.


set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by COB Friday 24 July. Only

one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on the

key issues during the workshop.


• What is one key change or investment needed to deliver on the vision?

• What are the key barriers to social inclusion, employment or education in the region?

• What is needed to create more opportunity for Aboriginal young people?

• What are the three top land use and environment issues for the Upper Hunter?

We look forward to seeing you on Tuesday.

Kind Regards,


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Workshop Plan


Welcome,

acknowledgement

of country and

introductions

11:00am –

11:15am

Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where


Quick overview 11:15am –

11:30am

• Objectives for the workshop and scope of project




objectives.

Slide presenting


work.

Discussion area 1:

Vision for the

community and

young people

11:30am –

11:50am

Get perspectives on the following issues:


• What investments and infrastructure is needed to deliver on the vision?

• What are the key barriers to social inclusion, employment or education for Aboriginal and

Torres Strait Islander people?

• What is needed to create more opportunity for Aboriginal young people?

• What are the expected social and community impacts from the economic diversification in the

region?



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Discussion area

2: Land use and

environment

11:50am – 12:10pm Get perspectives on the following issues:

• What are the key land use issues in the region?

• How should land use planning arrangements supporting community outcomes?

• What are the opportunities for Aboriginal Land Councils'?

• What are the most important environmental issues to consider for the future?

• How may mining rehabilitation impact future community outcomes?

• What are the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?


Discussion area

3: Current and

future

opportunities

and partnerships


• What are the current partnerships in place to support the community and can these be

leveraged further?

• What partnerships and collaborations are working well?

• Are there new opportunities for partnerships across or beyond the Upper Hunter region?

• How can other organisations work better with Aboriginal organisations in the future?


Wrap up

discussion, next

steps and light

lunch

12:30pm – 1:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed.


Plenary discussion


3(a) and 3(b)

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– Upper Hunter policies and

programs

Table B.1: Upper Hunter Policies and Programs

Upper Hunter policies and programs Summary and description

Regional Economic

Development

Strategy, 2018-

2022

The Regional Economic Development Strategy is a broad strategy document to provide a framework to identify

the areas for economic development in the Hunter region and aims to achieve the regional vision of enhanced

innovation and infrastructure, and greater access to interstate and international markets.

The strategy is aimed at councils and other groups involved in the economic development of the region and outlines

high value areas/projects for development.

Important considerations:

• The Liddell and Bayswater power plants will be shut down in 2022 and 2035 respectively. There are

opportunities for emerging energy options to leverage the infrastructure and natural advantages of the

region

• The Upper Hunter Shire is seeking to provide support to existing industrial estates with a rail sliding

Proposed projects:

• Wind and solar facilities, pilot bio-refinery and gas-fired electricity generation plant in the Upper Hunter

• The Upper Hunter is one of three centres for thoroughbred breeding excellence in the world and employed

700 people in 2016.

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Hunter Regional

Plan 2036

NSW Government

Department of Planning, Industry

and Environment

The plan provides an overarching framework to guide the NSW Government’s land use planning priorities and

decisions over the next 20 years for the Hunter Region.

The document contains priority actions in the short term, for each council such as:

• The recently completed Hunter Expressway provided better access between the Upper Hunter and greater

Newcastle.

• Potential growth in Agribusiness due to demands in the domestic and Asian markets.

• There is capacity to export mining and agricultural knowledge, especially in the equine and viticulture

industries.

• Protecting the Upper Hunter’s landscape and leveraging its established agricultural industries will help to

increase its appeal as a tourist destination.

• Enable the growth of tourism in the Upper Hunter through integration with the Equine Critical Industry

Cluster.

• Protect the Equine Critical Industry Cluster and allow for expansion of the industry.

Upper Hunter

Economic

Diversification

Action Plan:

Implementation

Priorities

NSW Government


and Environment

The Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan contains regional advantages and implementation priorities in

the immediate (up to 2 years), short to medium (up to 4 years) and long term (up to 10 years).

Local growth projections and enablers:

• Protect the Equine Critical Industry Cluster and allow for expansion of the industry.

• Protect Biophysical Strategic Agricultural Lands and other important agricultural lands.

• Support the tourism economy by investigating ways to leverage agriculture and equine industry strengths to

attract food-based and equine-related visitors.

• Support the diversification of the energy sector and ongoing extractive industries, being part of the Upper

Hunter Green Energy Precinct.

• Encourage the establishment of employment–generating rural industries, value-adding industries and

intensive agriculture in appropriate locations.

Opportunities seen by NSW Government:

• Supporting transition into agribusiness; economic agreements with Asian trading partners

• Develop a robust water security planning framework

• Working with power asset owners for growing renewable energy capabilities

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SMART

Specialisation

Strategy

Commonwealth

Government

NSW Government

Smart Specialisation is an OECD framework implemented across the EU to guide regional economic transformation;

this plan is has become a part of RDA Hunter’s economic development strategy.

The strategy identifies local competencies with a focus on smart development through innovation.

Defence:

• The Upper Hunter has a significant defence base: Army Singleton Military Area, co-located next to Lone Pine

Barracks.

• RDA Hunter is co-ordinating the Hunter Strategic Defence Group with the Government to leverage defence

opportunities such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and planned major re-equipment programs to capture

economic and employment outcomes for the Hunter.

• Educational programs at Hunter TAFE and the ME program (STEM initiative for defence) to enhance

capabilities.

Equine:

• Scone Equine Hospital: supports the Thoroughbred Horse breeding industry in the Upper Hunter. Potential

for expansion in equine practices.

Arts:

• ‘Arts Upper Hunter’ is backed by five Councils, to provide, support and promote opportunities for all people

in the Upper Hunter to participate creatively in the lives of the communities they live in.

Local Strategic

Planning

Statement 2020

Upper Hunter Shire

Council

The Local Strategic Planning Statement (LSPS) is the Upper Hunter Shire Council’s plan for the social, environmental

and economic land use needs over the next 20 years in the region. The LSPS provides context and direction for

strategic land use planning in the Upper Hunter Shire.

The Local Strategic Planning Statement 2020 outlines the following priorities for Upper Hunter Shire:

• Protect the natural environment.

• Support and provide community services which promote health, wellbeing and the celebration of culture.

• Increase focus on local business, shop occupation and revitalisation of the town centres.

• Facilitate a stronger economic base to attract and retain residents, particularly young people.

• Provide well maintained, safe, reliable and additional infrastructure, including sporting fields, parks, family

and cultural facilities.

• Rural lifestyle and country feel are valued and protected and that the Upper Hunter Shire remains quiet,

safe, healthy and welcoming.

• Facilitate increased and innovative tourism and visitor opportunities

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Local Strategic

Planning Statement

2041

Singleton Council

As a high-level strategic document, the Statement establishes the 20-year vision for how the Singleton LGA will be in

the future in terms of its land uses, activities, landforms and built forms. The planning priorities contained in the

Statement provide the rationale, strategic policy positions and actions that will help navigate the LGA local planning

documents such as the Local Environmental Plan, Development Control Plan, Local contributions Plan and the

Community Participation Plan.

Moving Toward

2041 Local

Strategic Planning

Statement

Dungog Shire

Council

The Local Strategic Planning Statement sets out how the Dungog LGA will move forward with land use planning over

the next 20 years economically, socially and environmentally in a way that delivers on the community’s vision. The

main themes of the document centre on: A thriving new economy, infrastructure supporting growth, a sustainable

environment, and a place to grow. Each theme has 3-4 planning priorities with associated actions and

implementation timeframes stretching from the immediate to the ongoing (over the life of the statement). The

Dungog Shire LSPS is not a static document and will be reviewed to align with the Integrated Planning & Reporting

Framework and the progression of the Rural Lands Strategy. This will ensure the relevance of actions and maintain a

clear line of sight with the Hunter Regional Plan 2036.

DRAFT Local

Strategic Planning

Statement 2020-

2040

Muswellbrook Shire

Council

The Statement will shape how Council amends or prepares the Muswellbrook Local Environmental Plan (MLEP) and

Muswellbrook Development Control Plan (MDCP) over time. The LSPS consists of:

• A 20-year vision that captures the future desired state for the local area

• 3 key themes that identify the higher-order objectives for strategic land use planning in the LGA

• 19 planning priorities that identify the main issues to be addressed to deliver the Vision and Themes

• A set of Planning Principles for each planning priority that guide decisions on planning proposals and land use

planning

• Measurable actions that outline specific projects that will be added to Council’s work programs to implement the

LSPS.

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Greater Hunter

regional water

strategy, 2018

NSW Government


and Environment

The Greater Hunter regional water strategy provides a guide to infrastructure development to overcome

the physical barriers that prevent optimal water allocations.

• Drought security was confirmed as the primary economic risk facing the Upper Hunter. This risk

extends to all sectors, including urban, agriculture, mining and power generation.

• Infrastructure guidance to improve water access and connectivity will mitigate the risk

• Increase water reliability

• While the Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy provides extensive research on the historical climatic

record of the region, there is a need to invest in forward-looking forecasts to understand how this will

change over the next 50-years and impact on the availability of water as the climate changes.

Strategic Regional

Land Use Plan

Upper Hunter, 2012

NSW Government

Strategic Regional Land Use Plan Upper Hunter references policy actions undertaken since 2012.

• Some policy actions in the document that have already been implemented.

• The policy actions have been undertaken in the following areas: Balancing Agriculture and Resources

development, Infrastructure, Economic Development and Employment, Housing and Settlement,

Community Health and Amenity, Natural Environment, Natural Hazards and Climate Change, Cultural

Heritage.

Situation analysis

of Upper Hunter

Local Government

Area: Investigation

Areas Review

(2016)

This review has been prepared for Upper Hunter Shire Council (UHSC) to provide background information for an

update to the Upper Hunter Land Use Strategy 2011. This will inform future planning for the Upper Hunter Local

Government Area (LGA).

The report identifies some structural issues affecting the Upper Hunter Local Government Area and local

development plans:

• Ageing of the population in rural areas

• Increased centralisation of services in major centres (esp. for health and education)

• Stable or declining overall population in most of the LGA contrasted with projected growth in and around

the townships of Scone and Aberdeen (generally within a radius of 15 to 20 km)

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Prepared for Upper Hunter Shire

Council

• Continued structural adjustment in the rural and agricultural industries, together with some growth of more

diversified rural enterprises and constraints based on limited water availability

• Uncertainty in relation to potential future coal mining development

• Relatively poor public transport accessibility

• An attractive natural/rural environment

Climate Change

Research Strategy,

Project 3 – Biomass

for Bioenergy

NSW Government

Department of Primary Industries

The Climate Change Research Strategy outlines three projects to help develop alternatives to conventional fossil-

fuel electricity generation.

Project 3 investigates innovative approaches to electricity generation using biomass to prepare for new capacity in

the electricity grid with a $4 million budget.

Three primary components of the program include:

1. Feedstocks – The most prospective energy crops planted at ten demonstration sites across NSW for trials on

growth rates and to demonstrate the energy crop concept to NSW landholders.

2. Technology options - review and evaluation of white and torrefied pellets for co-firing in existing coal-fired

power plants in NSW.

3. Scenario modelling – develop scenarios for bioenergy and analyse contribution to greenhouse gas emissions

reduction in the short and long term.

This project creates an opportunity for NSW to lead the way in large-scale implementation of bioenergy solutions for

electricity generation, develop a new market for biomass energy, and address climate change.

A Green Growth and

Innovation

Powerhouse for

Australia

NSW Government

University of Newcastle

The Hunter BioValley report presents a comprehensive approach to economic diversification in the Hunter

Region, based on the concepts of circular and bio-economies.

At the heart of the Hunter BioValley will lie an interconnected network of innovation projects – each individual land

use being integrated with and supported by other sectors of the new economy.

Project goals include clean energy and storage, green chemicals and products, circular economy, integrated

landscapes, regenerative agriculture, sustainable infrastructure and ecological remediation and improvement.

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Upper Hunter Cultural Plan 2017-

2027

Upper Hunter Shire Council

The Upper Hunter Cultural Plan describes the culture of the Upper Hunter, the Council’s approach to Arts

and Culture, and actions to meet cultural objectives.

Priority areas include:

• Develop connectivity between Council, independent organisations, arts practitioners and cultural workers, in

relation to programming, strategic packaging and promotion to develop audiences, and resource sharing

• Develop hard infrastructure for the arts and cultural sector

• Better support fledgling and existing festivals and events

• Build a partnership to best facilitate the University of Newcastle’s third year Bachelor of Creative Industries

course student placements in 2019 to boost Shire skills and labour

• Focus on Indigenous people to increase visibility and support for traditional and contemporary cultures

Upper Hunter Regional Cultural

Development Strategy 2017-2021

Muswellbrook Shire Council

The Upper Hunter Regional Cultural Development Strategy contains a profile summary of the Upper Hunter and

the plans, policies, procedures in place for cultural development. The strategy also provides a summary of

recommendations for cultural development in the region.

Some relevant recommendations:

• Investigate infrastructure opportunities for Aboriginal culture celebration

• Support the digital platforms and systems that broaden the storage of memory institutions

• Encourage infrastructure spending on cultural heritage buildings and precincts

• Support the recognition and promotion of cultural infrastructure and spaces as cultural tourism assets

• Facilitate the development of digital applications and infrastructure that support cultural development

• Increase local attainment of educational qualifications in the arts, music and production

• Support spending on cultural infrastructure that facilitates growth in cultural tourism

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Dungog Land Use Strategy Dungog Shire Council (2010)

The Land Use Strategy was developed for Dungog Shire Council and provides a direction and planning context to

guide the preparation/review of planning documents, including the Local Environmental Plan (LEP) provisions,

Development Control Plans and Local Area Plans. The Strategy is intended to provide a framework to guide land use-

related decisions affecting the Dungog Local Government Area (LGA) through to the year 2031. Dungog Council is

currently preparing an update applicable to rural regions in the 2020 Rural Lands Strategy.

Muswellbrook Land Use Development Strategy Muswellbrook Shire Council (2015) The Land Use Development Strategy sets out the direction for land use in the Muswellbrook Shire to 2035. It is focussed on the best use of land for the best community value and provides a focus for managing land use compatibility, for ensuring that future potential land use is a key consideration in land use decisions, and that a consistent strategic planning framework is applied to land use and development.

Singleton Land Use Statement Singleton Council (2008) The Strategy outlines key land use policies and principles for the Singleton local government area (LGA) and provides the planning context for the preparation of local environmental plan provisions. The Strategy has a time frame of 25 years, from 2008 to 2032. The Strategy identifies where growth and change are expected to occur, and land use planning objectives and strategies to guide this growth and change. It also identifies infrastructure requirements to support development and will help inform local and state government budget processes.

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Upper Hunter Land Use Statement Upper Hunter Shire Council (2017) The Upper Hunter Land Use Strategy outlines key land use policies and principles for the Upper Hunter local government area (LGA) and provides the planning context for the preparation of local environmental plan (LEP) provisions. The Strategy develops land use planning objectives and strategies to guide growth and change and identifies where growth and change are expected to occur. It also identifies infrastructure requirements to support development and will help inform local and state government budget processes.

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– State and regional policies and

programs

Table C.1: State and regional policies and programs

State and regional policies and

programs

Overview

Strategic statement on coal exploration and mining in NSW The purpose of this statement is to set out how the NSW Government is taking a responsible approach to the global transition to a low carbon future, consistent with Australia’s ambition under the Paris Agreement.

The NSW government will act in four areas:

1. Improving certainty about where coal mining should not occur 2. Supporting responsible coal production in areas deemed suitable for mining 3. Addressing community concerns about the impacts of coal mining 4. Supporting diversification of coal-reliant regional economies to assist with the phase out of thermal coal mining

A 20-year economic vision for regional NSW This document outlines the NSW Government’s vision for regional town centres, people and businesses in NSW. The document highlights key points to enable regional NSW to achieve sustainable and long-term economic growth including: • Strong trade agreements and relationships • Migration and foreign investment • A strong and thriving Sydney • Governments working together • Governments and industry working together • Governments and communities working together

• Aboriginal economic participation • A focus on growth

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State and regional policies and programs

Overview

Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020-2039 This policy framework aims to enhance the prosperity and quality of life of the people of NSW. The plan supports initiatives targeting electricity and energy efficiency, electric vehicles, hydrogen, primary industries, coal innovation, organic waste and carbon farming. Policy directions: • Support businesses to modernise plants and increase productivity • Provide farmers with access to new markets and technologies • Drive down the cost of living

Provide consumers with more information to help make environmentally and financially sustainable choices.

Australian Energy market Operator (AEMO): Draft 2020 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity

Market

The Australian Energy Market Operator developed a roadmap for eastern Australia’s power system. Specifically, the plan

aims to maximise net market benefits and deliver low cost, reliable energy created using CBA and least-regret scenario

modelling. The analysis identifies the following areas for investment:

• Distributed energy resources (DER) – DER is expected to double or triple by 2040, holding grid demand relatively

constant. Residential, industrial and commercial consumers are expected to continue to invest heavily in rooftop PV,

with increasing interest in battery storage and load management.

• Variable renewable energy (VRE) - Approximately 15 gigawatts (GW) or 63% of Australia’s coal-fired generation is

set to retire by 2040. To ensure a gradual, orderly transition, there must be sufficient new generation in place before

each major plant exits.

• Supporting dispatchable resources and power system services – 5-21 GW of new dispatchable resources are

needed in support: utility-scale pumped hydro or battery storage, demand response such as demand side

participation and distributed batteries participating as virtual power plants. New flexible gas generators could also play

a greater role if gas prices materially reduce.

National Electricity Market (NEM) transmission grid - While over 30 GW of new VRE may be required by 2040, the

existing network only has an estimated connection capacity for 13 GW within the identified potential Renewable Energy

Zone. Three types of projects are considered in this Draft ISP to augment the grid: current projects, additional regional

interconnections and intraregional augmentations

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Overview

NSW Electricity Strategy

The NSW Electricity Strategy outlines the NSW Government’s plan for a reliable, affordable and sustainable electricity future

to support the economy. The strategy is outlined over six parts:

1. How the electricity system operates 2. Change in the electricity system 3. Work underway

4. The NSW Government’s objectivise 5. The NSW Government’s Electricity strategy 6. Applying the Energy Security Target to NSW

The strategy is designed to complement the work of the national energy market and sets out actions to address the specific

needs of NSW.

COAG Energy Council: Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, 2019

Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy identifies 57 joint actions to propel the use of hydrogen in Australia as an

energy source.

The 57 strategic actions are summarised at the end of the report. Examples of strategic actions includes: create an

adaptive pathway to clean hydrogen growth, large-scale market activation, hubs and sector coupling, hydrogen

certification, skills and training for the hydrogen economy, hydrogen training for Australian emergency services and

regulators, certainty around taxation, excise and other fees/levies for hydrogen.

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Overview

Infrastructure Australia: Infrastructure Priority list

Infrastructure Australia provides a list of nationally significant infrastructure investments that Australia will require over the

next 15 years, based on projections of greatest benefits for the communities.

For example, the New England Highway passes through both Singleton and Muswellbrook. Traffic congestion, reduced land

freight transport productivity, safety issues (due to the mix of heavy vehicles and residential traffic in town centres) and

amenity issues are the principal problems.

Proposed solution: potential projects to upgrade the New England Highway that involve the Hunter:

• bypasses of the towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook

• duplication between Singleton and Muswellbrook

The Singleton and Muswellbrook bypasses are progressing through the concept design and environmental assessment

processes currently. These will aid the efficient movement of freight from regional exporters to the Port of Newcastle, which

is essential to supporting economic growth and productivity in New South Wales.

NSW Government, Aboriginal Affairs: Opportunity Hubs Program, Upper Hunter

The Ochre Opportunity Hubs programs aims to develop employment pathways for school students through the

involvement of local employers in career planning at schools.

Some of the key aims of the hub centres include:

• Providing young Aboriginal people with clear pathways and incentives to stay at school and transition into employment, training or further education.

• Linking schools, employers, training providers and support services. • Connecting Aboriginal students and their families to tertiary education and training pathways to align with students’

career interests.

Coordinating career planning and mentoring.

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Overview

Regional Industry Education Partnerships (RIEP) & NSW Government Initiative, by Vocational Education &

Training (VET)

The RIEP program aims to strengthen connections between local industry and secondary school communities

in regional areas to support career planning.

Activities of the program include:

• Building partnerships between employers and local schools • Supporting employers to engage with schools and share information on their expectations for their future workforce • Help students develop the skills they need to get a job

Strengthen links between what is learned at school and what is needed in the workplace

NSW Government, Training Services NSW: The Smart and Skilled Targeted Priorities Prevocational and Part

Qualifications Program Guidelines

The Smart and Skilled Targeted Priorities Prevocational and Part Qualifications Program supports the future of work through

enabling industry and training organisations to respond rapidly to skills needs.

The program has 3 target areas:

• Prevocational training – targets students who want to get a job, change their job or make a more informed decision to continue training to complete a full qualification. This training targets the attainment of Foundation Skills

competencies and is priced to reflect this. • Pre-apprenticeship and Pre-traineeship Training – targets students who are trying to get into an apprenticeship

or traineeship. Letters of support from industry are required to support these programs and must include compulsory work placement.

• Targeted skills – covers a broad range of vocational training to address the needs of industries and priority groups and assist individuals to gain the skills they need. This training can include nationally recognised vocational short courses and vocational skills sets as defined in Training Packages.

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Overview

Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program

NSW Government, Training Services NSW

The Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program aims to boost the number of skilled constructions workers in NSW

and develop new pathways to employment on infrastructure projects.

• The Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program is consistent with the NSW Government’s $100 million Smart, Skilled and Hired package, a targeted youth employment program to create new work pathways including traineeships and apprenticeships

The initiative will focus on three initial demonstration projects— Sydney Metro (rail), Lismore Base Hospital Stage 3B

redevelopment (health) and WestConnex New M4 (roads). Over time, these targets will be assessed and refined before

potentially applying to future infrastructure projects. The outcomes of these projects would be assessed over time and

results applied to other infrastructure projects.

Australian Government: Regional Connectivity Program (RCP)

Through the Regional Connectivity Program, targeted strategic investment will improve access to mobile and/or

broadband services in areas such as high value agricultural and tourism locations as well as for the resources

sector. This investment could also address health, social, public safety and educational priorities.

The $60 million funding of the Regional Connectivity Program includes a competitive grants program, a digital technology

hub, alternate voice service trials in remote areas, further development of the Universal Service Guarantee.

NSW Government: Regional Digital Connectivity (RDC) Program The Regional Digital Connectivity (RDC) Program is a $400 million commitment to invest in infrastructure to provide fast and reliable broadband internet access to regional communities in NSW. The Regional Digital Connectivity program is in addition to the existing Connecting Country Communities Fund that has helped deliver over 167 new mobile towers in NSW since 2015.

• The RDC Program aims to enable digital connectivity in regions that is comparable to the quality of services available in metropolitan areas of the state.

• It holds to the NSW State Infrastructure Strategy 2018-2038, which set a goal of having high-speed internet available across regional NSW by 2020.

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Table C.2: State and regional documents and strategies

State and regional documents and strategies

Overview

Improving mine rehabilitation in NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (2017) This Discussion Paper provides an overview of how mine rehabilitation is currently regulated in NSW and seeks public feedback on proposals to improve rehabilitation outcomes for state significant mining developments such as coal, mineral sands and large metalliferous mines. The key aim of the proposed improvements is to ensure mine rehabilitation is consistent with best practice and delivers appropriate social, economic and environmental outcomes.

NSW Government, Department of Planning and Environment: Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan, 2036 The Metropolitan Plan for Greater Newcastle outlines the vision for the development, strategies and actions of the region.

The strategic approach for Greater Newcastle aims to realise the vision set out in the Hunter Regional Plan 2036. • The recent completion of the Hunter Expressway has improved connectivity to the Greater Newcastle and Upper Hunter

area, increasing its attraction for housing and employment. There are opportunities to better connect trade movements across NSW and nationally via the Pacific Motorway, New England Highway, Hunter Expressway, national rail network and the proposed Lower Hunter Freight Corridor.

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Limitation of our work

General use restriction This report is prepared solely for the internal use of the NSW Department of Regional NSW. This

report is not intended to and should not be used or relied upon by anyone else and we accept no

duty of care to any other person or entity. The report has been prepared for the purpose of

evaluating the current economic, planning and social landscape of the Upper Hunter, providing a

robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future and guiding action towards achieving economic

diversification and resilience, as set out in the contract dated 26 May 2020. You should not refer to

or use our name or the advice for any other purpose.

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