reid harvey u.s. environmental protection agency chief, climate economics branch climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Reid HarveyU.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Chief, Climate Economics BranchClimate Change Division
6th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling ForumSeptember 27, 2011
Past, Present & Future: Economic Modeling of U.S. Climate
Change & Land Use Policies
1
![Page 2: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview• Various policies have been considered in recent years
– Legislative proposals– Offset programs: mandatory and voluntary– Clean Energy Standards (CES)
• Large role for land use and climate-related modeling of these policies
• Current areas of focus for polices to reduce GHG emissions– State Level Policies
• RGGI, AB32, WCI– EPA Clean Air Act rules– Sectoral policies, such as electricity sector policies (e.g., CES)– Voluntary programs
• This talk will discuss some of the modeling opportunities for this community to consider for future work 2
![Page 3: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
EPA Analyses of Climate Legislation111th Congress
• American Power Act (Kerry – Lieberman)– June 14, 2010
• American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) (Waxman – Markey House Passed)
– January 29, 2010• The Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009 (Kerry - Boxer)
– October 23, 2009• American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) (Waxman – Markey
Committee Passed)– June 23, 2009
• American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman – Markey Discussion Draft)– April 20, 2009
110th Congress• Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 (Lieberman – Warner)
– March 14, 2008• Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 (S. 1766) (Bingaman – Specter)
– January 15, 2008• Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 (S. 280) (Lieberman – McCain)
– July 16, 2007
All analyses available at www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/economicanalyses.html
3
![Page 4: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Total US GHG Emissions & Sources of Abatement
EPA Analysis of the American Power Act (Kerry – Lieberman)
Covered GHG Emissions (Net of Offsets)
APA Cap
AEO 2010 Reference Case
AEO 2009 Reference Case
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtCO2e
CO2 - Electricity
CO2 - Transportation
CO2 - Energy Int. Manufacturing
CO2 - Other
NonCO2 - Covered
Offsets - Domestic
Offsets - International
Discounted Offsets
HFCs (separate cap)
• The electricity sector provides the largest share of abatement from covered sources.
• Offsets provide a large portion of total abatement, particularly in the early years, even though the limits on domestic and international offsets are non-binding.
• Other covered sources provide a relatively small amount of abatement.
4
![Page 5: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• Support analyses related to regulatory initiatives (cost and benefit analyses for reporting rules, new source performance standards, etc.)
• Support development of methods to address key GHG accounting issues
• Prepare annual US emissions inventory for all GHGs, including sequestration trends in forestry and agriculture, and CH4 & N2O emissions in agriculture.
• Prepare U.S. GHG emissions projections, working with other agencies
• Evaluate GHG mitigation potential from U.S. sources, including forestry & agriculture, nationally and regionally
• Support work to incorporate climate change impacts into integrated assessment modeling
• Provide policymakers, the public and other stakeholders timely and relevant information about GHG mitigation opportunities, costs, and benefits
• Support efforts to improve representation of forestry, agriculture and bioenergy in regional, national and global models
Current EPA Activities
5
![Page 6: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Analytical Priorities
• Bolstering our tools and data in 3 priority areas:
– GHG mitigation and adaptation opportunities
– Data development, and
– Climate and energy policy analyses
6
![Page 7: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
GHG Mitigation and Adaptation Opportunities
• Improve data and representation of emerging mitigation options in forestry and agriculture
• Improve data and representation of adaptation opportunities
• Incorporation of climate impacts
![Page 8: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Data Development • Expand regional- and state-level modeling capacity
for various land types and land use activities • Update/incorporate forestry and agricultural data
and datasets • Increase research and data on transaction costs,
including transportation and storage • Yield growth and other factors that affect
productivity• Data development on bioenergy feedstocks, current
and emerging• Data development of climate impacts
![Page 9: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Policy Analyses • Climate and Energy Policy Analyses
- Continue refinement of capacity to evaluate climate policy (economy-wide, sectoral); expand regional and state level analyses
- Increase capacity to evaluate land use change using integrated assessment modeling
- Impacts of domestic bioenergy policies (state, regional, national)
• Exploration and comparison of climate programs and impacts of different policy designs- Current state/regional programs- Voluntary versus mandatory programs
• Global Impacts - Continue data development and exploration of land use
changes under various policy, economic, and technological scenarios including REDD incentives and international land use change impacts
![Page 10: Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022072017/56649efe5503460f94c13286/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Thank you
Reid HarveyU.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Chief, Climate Economics BranchClimate Change Division
10