regional visioning land use and transportation for four million new residents a presentation to the...
TRANSCRIPT
Regional VisioningLand Use and Transportation for
Four Million New Residents
A Presentation to the
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council February 16th, 2006
• National & Regional Growth Trends
• The Land Use-Transportation Connection
• Visioning Around the Nation & the Region
• A Long Island Visioning Initiative
• What’s Next?
Map: University of Pennsylvania
U.S. Population Change 2005- 2050
National Growth Trends
Map: University of Pennsylvania
Metropolitan Growth 2005 – 2050
National Growth Trends
Map: University of Pennsylvania
Emerging U.S. Mega-Regions
70% of Population80% of Job Growth
National Growth Trends
NYMTC Projections
• An additional 3.83 million people to the Tri-State region
• 1.81 million to NYMTC counties
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
How will the region be able to accommodate this growth at all, much less in a manner that simultaneously achieves economic, environmental and social equity goals?
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Pre-1960= 0.10 acres/person
1960 to 1990=1.2acres/person
Land consumption per capita has slowed somewhat since 1990, but rapid exurban growth continues
Increasing Land Consumption per Capita :
Pre-1960
1960-90
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Linking Land Use and Transportation
Revitalized Centers in the Urban Core Around a Robust Transit Network
Access to Commuter Rail Station by Walking Distance
Linking Land Use and Transportation
Tappan ZeeLinking Land Use and Transportation
The design of the transportation infrastructure is directly linked to regional land use decisions.
East Side Access/ LIRR Third TrackLinking Land Use and Transportation
New transportation capacity is critically needed to handle current congestion, but also creates the potential for higher-density development.
Suburban Centers: Nassau Hub
Linking Land Use and Transportation
31 COUNTIES3 STATES10 MPOs695 MUNICIPALITIES1 REGION
Fragmented Governance
A Growing Number of Areas Have Produced Regional Visions To Guide Future Growth
Visioning Around the Nation
• Inclusive, consensus based process• Define regional values and benchmarks for
measuring success• Educate public on connections between
transportation and land use • Develop growth scenarios and corresponding
transportation investments through several public workshops
• Model indicators from each scenario and measure each against regional value benchmarks
• Implement land use changes in targeted locations
Visioning Around the Nation
Define Regional Values and Benchmarks for Measuring Success
• Workshops• Surveys• Polling• Existing Plan Review
Visioning Around the Nation
Develop Growth Scenarios and Corresponding Transportation Investments
Through Several Public Workshops
• Base map accurately depicts conditions on the ground
• Determine where not to grow
• Allocate growth in chosen development scenario
• Determine necessary transportation improvements.
Visioning Around the Nation
Model Indicators From Each Scenario and Measure Each Against Regional Value
Benchmarks
• Each scenario generated at workshops is digitized
• Land use and transportation entered into model
• Indicators relate to values and benchmarks generated in early stages of process
Visioning Around the Nation
470 Hours 386
Hours
Business As
UsualMetropolis Plan
Implement Land Use Changes in Targeted Locations
• Changing zoning and development types in limited municipalities can have drastic effect on regional development patters
• Southern California 2% Solution
Visioning Around the Nation
Lessons from Other Regions
Envision Utah
Lessons from Other Regions
Chicago Metropolis 2020
Lessons from Other Regions
SCAG’s Compass
Los Angeles Compass used the most advanced visualization techniques to convey information to participants
Lessons from Other Regions
Regional Initiatives
Foundations for Visioning in the Region
• History of regional planning
• Existing NYMTC forecasts
• NYMTC sustainable development studies
• Benchmarking projects, such as Long Island Index
• Several community visioning projects
Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Land Use ScenarioPreferred Land Use Scenario
Regional Initiatives: SEEDS
Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Transportation ScenarioPreferred Transportation Scenario
Local Initiatives: SEEDS
Local Initiatives: Stamford
Several secondary and tertiary centers were identified throughout the city that support the downtown core.
Local Initiatives: Stamford
Local Initiatives: Stamford
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Planning Underway
• Business, Political & Civic Planning Group, including county planning departments, LIA, LIRPB, Vision LI, Sustainable LI, RPA, others
• Stakeholders meetings in April and December, 2005
• Analysis of prior and existing plans and vision projects
• Baseline analysis• Development of scenario testing model
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Base Map
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Two Test Scenarios
Large-Lot
Small-Lot
SuburbanAttached
Village Infill Downtown Corridor
CentersOriented 37,500 37,500 13,000 120,000 52,000 120,000
10% 10% 3% 32% 14% 32%
Dispersed 111,000 111,000 100,000 40,000 12,000 6,000
29% 29% 26% 11% 3% 2%
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Long Island Visioning Initiative
Long Island Visioning Initiative
• Large Projected Growth to Metropolitan Area
• We Need to Grow Differently and Create New Transportation Capacity
• Public Support Will Dictate our Success
Next Steps for the Region
• Coordinate with NYMTC, other MPOs, planning and transportation agencies
• Launch Long Island initiative
• Begin planning and develop partnerships in other parts of the region
• Complete scenario-testing model
Potential Outcomes
• Political support for new growth strategies
• Greater consensus on the next generation of transportation investments
• Growth in regional centers and transit friendly development
• Conservation of region-shaping landscapes and
estuaries
• Affordable housing programs and strategies
• Governance and tax reforms