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Regional VisioningLand Use and Transportation for
Four Million New Residents
A Presentation to the
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council February 16th, 2006
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• National & Regional Growth Trends
• The Land Use-Transportation Connection
• Visioning Around the Nation & the Region
• A Long Island Visioning Initiative
• What’s Next?
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Map: University of Pennsylvania
U.S. Population Change 2005- 2050
National Growth Trends
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Map: University of Pennsylvania
Metropolitan Growth 2005 – 2050
National Growth Trends
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Map: University of Pennsylvania
Emerging U.S. Mega-Regions
70% of Population80% of Job Growth
National Growth Trends
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NYMTC Projections
• An additional 3.83 million people to the Tri-State region
• 1.81 million to NYMTC counties
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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How will the region be able to accommodate this growth at all, much less in a manner that simultaneously achieves economic, environmental and social equity goals?
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Pre-1960= 0.10 acres/person
1960 to 1990=1.2acres/person
Land consumption per capita has slowed somewhat since 1990, but rapid exurban growth continues
Increasing Land Consumption per Capita :
Pre-1960
1960-90
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Linking Land Use and Transportation
Revitalized Centers in the Urban Core Around a Robust Transit Network
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Access to Commuter Rail Station by Walking Distance
Linking Land Use and Transportation
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Tappan ZeeLinking Land Use and Transportation
The design of the transportation infrastructure is directly linked to regional land use decisions.
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East Side Access/ LIRR Third TrackLinking Land Use and Transportation
New transportation capacity is critically needed to handle current congestion, but also creates the potential for higher-density development.
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Suburban Centers: Nassau Hub
Linking Land Use and Transportation
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31 COUNTIES3 STATES10 MPOs695 MUNICIPALITIES1 REGION
Fragmented Governance
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A Growing Number of Areas Have Produced Regional Visions To Guide Future Growth
Visioning Around the Nation
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• Inclusive, consensus based process• Define regional values and benchmarks for
measuring success• Educate public on connections between
transportation and land use • Develop growth scenarios and corresponding
transportation investments through several public workshops
• Model indicators from each scenario and measure each against regional value benchmarks
• Implement land use changes in targeted locations
Visioning Around the Nation
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Define Regional Values and Benchmarks for Measuring Success
• Workshops• Surveys• Polling• Existing Plan Review
Visioning Around the Nation
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Develop Growth Scenarios and Corresponding Transportation Investments
Through Several Public Workshops
• Base map accurately depicts conditions on the ground
• Determine where not to grow
• Allocate growth in chosen development scenario
• Determine necessary transportation improvements.
Visioning Around the Nation
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Model Indicators From Each Scenario and Measure Each Against Regional Value
Benchmarks
• Each scenario generated at workshops is digitized
• Land use and transportation entered into model
• Indicators relate to values and benchmarks generated in early stages of process
Visioning Around the Nation
470 Hours 386
Hours
Business As
UsualMetropolis Plan
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Implement Land Use Changes in Targeted Locations
• Changing zoning and development types in limited municipalities can have drastic effect on regional development patters
• Southern California 2% Solution
Visioning Around the Nation
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Lessons from Other Regions
Envision Utah
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Lessons from Other Regions
Chicago Metropolis 2020
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Lessons from Other Regions
SCAG’s Compass
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Los Angeles Compass used the most advanced visualization techniques to convey information to participants
Lessons from Other Regions
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Regional Initiatives
Foundations for Visioning in the Region
• History of regional planning
• Existing NYMTC forecasts
• NYMTC sustainable development studies
• Benchmarking projects, such as Long Island Index
• Several community visioning projects
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Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Land Use ScenarioPreferred Land Use Scenario
Regional Initiatives: SEEDS
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Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Transportation ScenarioPreferred Transportation Scenario
Local Initiatives: SEEDS
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Local Initiatives: Stamford
Several secondary and tertiary centers were identified throughout the city that support the downtown core.
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Local Initiatives: Stamford
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Local Initiatives: Stamford
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
Planning Underway
• Business, Political & Civic Planning Group, including county planning departments, LIA, LIRPB, Vision LI, Sustainable LI, RPA, others
• Stakeholders meetings in April and December, 2005
• Analysis of prior and existing plans and vision projects
• Baseline analysis• Development of scenario testing model
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Base Map
Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
Two Test Scenarios
Large-Lot
Small-Lot
SuburbanAttached
Village Infill Downtown Corridor
CentersOriented 37,500 37,500 13,000 120,000 52,000 120,000
10% 10% 3% 32% 14% 32%
Dispersed 111,000 111,000 100,000 40,000 12,000 6,000
29% 29% 26% 11% 3% 2%
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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• Large Projected Growth to Metropolitan Area
• We Need to Grow Differently and Create New Transportation Capacity
• Public Support Will Dictate our Success
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Next Steps for the Region
• Coordinate with NYMTC, other MPOs, planning and transportation agencies
• Launch Long Island initiative
• Begin planning and develop partnerships in other parts of the region
• Complete scenario-testing model
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Potential Outcomes
• Political support for new growth strategies
• Greater consensus on the next generation of transportation investments
• Growth in regional centers and transit friendly development
• Conservation of region-shaping landscapes and
estuaries
• Affordable housing programs and strategies
• Governance and tax reforms