Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 1Singapore Aviation Safety Seminar – March 2017

Regional Safety UpdateGerardo Hueto

Assistant Director SFO ASPAC

Outline

Statistics: Accidents and Precursors

Safety Focus: Top Risks

Addressing Risks

Accidents Update: As of 13 Jan 2017

Safety Performance:All Accidents per Million Sectors

All Accident Rate for IOSA Operators vs. Non-IOSA(includes Jet & Turboprop aircraft)

Period: 2012 to 2016

Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 5 Issued 1 September 2009Accidents Update: As at 30 June 2009 5

World IATA Members

2016 1.61 1.54

2015 1.79 1.25

2011-2015 2.25 1.35

NAM

0.94 2016

1.17 2015

1.34 2011-2015

LATAM/CAR

2.80 2016

0.97 2015

2.64 2011-2015

EUR

1.25 2016

1.44 2015

1.99 2011-2015

AFI

2.30 2016

7.36 2015

9.73 2011-2015

MENA

5.80 2016

1.22 2015

3.16 2011-2015

CIS

3.85 2016

3.19 2015

4.64 2011-2015

NASIA

0.19 2016

0.86 2015

0.77 2011-2015

ASPAC

2.05 2016

3.16 2015

2.94 2011-2015

All Accident Rate per Region of OperatorAs at 13 Jan 2017

All Accidents Overview

2016 (Jan – Dec)

As of: 13 January 2016

Total Accidents 65

Accidents with IATA Members 33

Total Jet Hull Losses 13

Total Turbo-Prop Hull Losses 8

Total Fatal Accidents 10

Fatalities 268

Safety Performance:Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)

Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 8 Issued 1 September 2009Accidents Update: As at 30 June 2009 8

World IATA Members

2016 0.23 0.14

2015 0.10 0.04

2011-2015 0.31 0.08

NAM

0.09 2016

0.09 2015

0.13 2011-2015

LATAM/CAR

0.55 2016

0.00 2015

0.43 2011-2015

EUR

0.11 2016

0.00 2015

0.04 2011-2015

AFI

0.00 2016

0.80 2015

2.03 2011-2015

MENA

1.16 2016

0.00 2015

0.36 2011-2015

CIS

0.50 2016

0.00 2015

1.77 2011-2015

NASIA

0.00 2016

0.16 2015

0.08 2011-2015

ASPAC

0.40 2016

0.16 2015

0.41 2011-2015

Fatality Risk per Region of OperatorAs at 13 Jan 2017

Jet Safety Performance:Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)

Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 10 Issued 1 September 2009Accidents Update: As at 30 June 2009 10

World IATA Members

2016 0.14 0.10

2015 0.00 0.00

2011-2015 0.12 0.06

NAM

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

0.06 2011-2015

LATAM/CAR

0.70 2016

0.00 2015

0.00 2011-2015

EUR

0.14 2016

0.00 2015

0.03 2011-2015

AFI

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

0.61 2011-2015

MENA

1.24 2016

0.00 2015

0.11 2011-2015

CIS

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

1.32 2011-2015

NASIA

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

0.00 2011-2015

ASPAC

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

0.19 2011-2015

Jet Fatality Risk per Region of OperatorAs at 13 Jan 2017

Turboprop Safety Performance:Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)

Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 12 Issued 1 September 2009Accidents Update: As at 30 June 2009 12

World IATA Members

2016 0.65 0.69

2015 0.55 0.59

2011-2015 1.10 0.40

NAM

0.50 2016

0.49 2015

0.45 2011-2015

LATAM/CAR

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

1.70 2011-2015

EUR

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

0.07 2011-2015

AFI

0.00 2016

1.62 2015

3.43 2011-2015

MENA

0.00 2016

0.00 2015

3.28 2011-2015

CIS

2.60 2016

0.00 2015

3.96 2011-2015

NASIA

0.00 2016

5.11 2015

2.32 2011-2015

ASPAC

1.72 2016

0.68 2015

1.07 2011-2015

Turboprop Fatality Risk per Region of OperatorAs at 13 Jan 2017

Fatality Risk

Note: (1) The area of the bubble indicates the number of fatalities associated with the particular accident category, the value is displayed

(2) Fatality Risk: number of full-loss equivalents per 1 million flights

(3) Accidents not involving fatalities are displayed on this graph as black circles

Top Risks – Focused on Fatalities

Historic:

Loss of Control In Flight (LOC-I)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)

Approach and Landing Accidents (ALAR)

Emerging:

Mid Air Collision (MID)

Due to LHDs and TCAS RAs

2010: US CAST Airplane State Awareness

After Colgan Accident

Airplane state awareness defined in two categories:

Attitude (roll and pitch angles and rates): often leads to LOC-I via

unrecovered roll excursion

Energy (airspeed, vertical speed, altitude, power setting, and

configuration): often leads to LOC-I via unrecovered stall

Joint Safety Analysis Team: Analysis of 18 events

Focus on LOC-I

Summary of

Significant Themes

Across All Events

Formosa Airlines Saab 340 x x x x x x x 7

Korean Air 747-200F x x x x x x 6

Flash Airlines 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8

Adam Air 737-400 x x x x x x x x x x 10

Kenya Airways 737-800 x x x x x x x 7

Aeroflot-Nord 737-500 x x x x x x x x x x x 11

Gulf Air A320 x x x x x x 6

Icelandair 757-200 (Oslo) x x x x x x 6

Armavia A320 x x x x x x x 7

Icelandair 757-200 (Baltimore) x x x x x x x x x 9

Midwest Express 717 x x x x x x x 7

Colgan Air DHC-8-Q400 x x x x x x x x x x 10

Provincial Airlines DHC-8 x x x x x x x 7

Thomsonfly 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8

West Caribbean MD-82 x x x x x x x x x x 10

XL Airways A320 x x x x x x x x x 9

Turkish Airlines 737-800 x x x x x x x 7

Empire Air ATR-42 x x x x x x x 7

Overall 17 7 10 6 12 6 18 9 14 14 17 12

• SE 192 Low Airspeed Alerting• Incorporate existing service bulletins to install low

airspeed aural alerting in the U.S. fleet

• SE 194 SOP Effectiveness and Adherence• Review and update SOPs to align with latest

CAST, manufacturer, and ICAO recommendations

• Assess and revise SOPs based on feedback from

data monitoring programs

• SE 196 Enhanced Upset Recovery

Training, Including Approach-to-Stall• New approach-to-stall recovery procedures and

realistic scenarios, including autoflight ON

• Upset prevention & recovery, including

unreliable airspeed

• SE 197 Training for Non-Normal Situations• Focus on flying the airplane first

• SE 198 Scenario-Based Training for Go-

Arounds• Go-arounds for other than decision height

• Complicating factors (trim, light weight, entry

into clouds)

• SE 199 Enhanced Crew Resource Management• Focus on pilot monitoring duties

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Portal:CAST_SE_Plan

Rapid positive change is possible if these Safety

Enhancement Initiatives are implemented

IATA is promoting the implementation with airlines and ICAO

Regional Aviation Safety Groups

APRAST

PARAST

MIDRAST

Thank You

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Jan EUR West Atlantic Sweden CRJ200 Jet HL 2 - -

Jan LATAM Passaredo Transportes Aereos ATR72 Turboprop SD - - -

Jan MENA Zagros Airlines MD-80 Jet HL - - -

Feb LATAM GOL Linhas Aereas B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Mar NAM UPS Airlines B767-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Mar ASPAC True Aviation Bangladesh An-26 Turboprop HL 3 - -

Mar ASPAC Aircraft Sales & Services B1900 Turboprop SD - - -

Mar LATAM TAM A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Mar MENA Flydubai B737-800 Jet HL 62 Yes Yes

Mar EUR Cityjet RJ-85 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Mar NAM JetBlue Airways E190 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Mar CIS Halyk Air F100 Jet SD - No No

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Apr EUR Air Vallee F50 Turboprop SD - No No

Apr LATAM TAME E190 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes

Apr NAM EVAS Air Charters B1900 Turboprop SD - No No

Apr ASPAC Batik Air B737-800 Jet SD - No No

May EUR Turkish Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May NASIA MIAT - Mongolian Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May NAM American Airlines A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May EUR Air France A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May MENA EgyptAir A320 Jet HL 66 Yes Yes

May CIS Silk Way Airlines An-12 Turboprop HL 7 - -

May ASPAC Korean Air B777-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May MENA Saudia A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes

May EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Jun AFI South Supreme Airlines An-30 Turboprop SD - No No

Jun NAM UPS MD-11 Jet HL - Yes Yes

Jun CIS Ayk Avia An-32 Turboprop HL - No No

Jun MENA Mahan Air BAE146 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Jun ASPAC Air India A319 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Jun AFI Busy Bee Congo Do228 Turboprop SD - No No

Jun ASPAC Singapore Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes

Jul ASPAC Nok Air DHC8-400 Turboprop SD - No No

Jul EUR Germania A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Jul MENA Royal Air Maroc ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes

Aug MENA Emirates Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes

Aug EUR ASL Airlines Hungary B737-400 Jet HL - No No

Aug ASPAC T’was Air B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Aug CIS Krasavia Yak-42 Jet SD - No No

Aug CIS Aviastar-TU Tu-204 Jet SD - No No

Aug NAM Southwest Airlines B737-700 Jet SD - No No

Sep ASPAC Trigana Air Service B737-300 Jet HL - No No

Sep MENA Iran Air F100 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Sep NAM Commutair DHC8-200 Turboprop SD - No Yes

Sep ASPAC Yeti Airlines Jetstream 41 Turboprop SD - No No

Sep ASPAC Cebu Pacific Airlines ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No

Sep MENA Iran Air A310-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Sep LATAM Southern Air Charter B1900 Turboprop SD - No No

Oct EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Oct CIS Polar Airlines An-26 Turboprop HL - No No

Oct LATAM Sterna Linhas Aereas A300 Jet SD - No No

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Oct EUR White Airways ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes

Oct LATAM FlyMex 328JET Jet SD - No No

Oct AFI Ethiopian Airlines DHC8-400 Turboprop HL - Yes Yes

Oct NAM American Airlines B767-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes

Oct NAM FedEx DC-10 Jet HL - Yes Yes

Oct ASPAC Trigana Air Services DHC-4T Turboprop HL 4 No No

Nov NAM American Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Nov LATAM LAMIA Bolivia RJ-85 Jet HL 71 No No

Dec NAM Key Lime Air Metro III Turboprop HL 1 No No

Dec ASPAC Pakistan International Airlines ATR 42 Turboprop HL 47 Yes Yes

Dec MENA Safi Airways B737-400 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Dec EUR SAS CRJ900 Jet SD - Yes Yes

Dec LATAM Aerosucre Colombia B727-200 Jet HL 5 No No

Accident List 2016Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA

Dec ASPAC Wings Air ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No