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Finding value in gloomy times

CY15F-17F CPO prices cut 9-13% on lower forecast of soybean oil and crude oil prices, stronger USD

Expect demand shift to soybean oil; but CPO supply constraints to provide upside catalysts in 2H15

Weaker Ringgit/Rupiah more than offset lower prices. Most upstream are beneficiaries

Buy on near-term weakness. Our top picks are BWPT, GENP, TSH, and BAL

Adjusting ASP and FX rates. Palm oil’s 4% price recovery (US$/MT) since mid Dec14 reflected the steep 22% drop in Malaysian Dec14 output – given the worst floods in Peninsular Malaysia since 2006. However, we do not expect the recent price gains to continue given (1) seasonal supply recovery, (2) record South American soybean harvests, (3) drop in crude oil prices and (4) prospective shift in Indian demand to soybean oil. We cut FY15/16/17 CPO price forecasts (i.e. US$/MT, FOB Pasir Gudang) by 9%/13%/11%, respectively. However, after accounting for the weaker Ringgit, these translate to upward adjustments of 4%/2%/ 6% in Ringgit terms. Opportunity to collect young upstream. We adjusted FY14F earnings by -28% - +6%; while FY15F earnings were revised by -26% - +14%, reflecting revisions in ASP and FX rates. Lower prices should trim refining margins this year (despite absence of discretionary biodiesel demand); while some planters with USD debts exposure are due to incur FX losses. Our fair value estimates were adjusted by -21% – +11%. An anticipated price rebound next year should position young planters ahead of established ones, thanks to their volume-growth leverage. Our top picks are BWPT, GENP, TSH and BAL. Slower supply growth is structural. Longer term, we envision structural slowdown in palm oil supply growth. Lack of suitable land has irreversibly curtailed new planting in Indonesia since 2012. In our view, palm oil prices should continue to trade at a narrow discount to soybean oil. ‘Make-or-Break’challenges. (1) Sustainability. The industry is working towards expanding certified palm oil output; and is avoiding high carbon stock and peat lands. In addition to Wilmar’s ‘No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation’ policy and Golden Agri’s ‘Forest Conservation Policy’, we highlight what various planters have achieved to address various sustainability issues. (2) Legal uncertainties. We view the Indonesian government’s forthcoming regulation is likely an important milestone to address concession issues (including foreign ownership). (3) Refining overcapacity. Watch out for changes in export tax structure in Indonesia.

JCI : 5,323.89 KLCI : 1,803.08 STI : 3,411.50 Analysts Ben SANTOSO +65 6682 3707 [email protected] Marvin KHOR +603 2604 3911 [email protected] Indonesian Research Team Stock coverage

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, AllianceDBS *Prices as at 23 Jan15 closing Commodity price revisions Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, AllianceDBS

DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Jan 2015

Regional Industry Focus

Plantation Companies

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Price Mkt Cap Target Price

Performance (%)

LCY US$m LCY 3 mth 12 mth Rating

Rp Astra Agro Lestari 24,000 3,032 24,700 22.0 8.8 HOLD London Sumatra 1,865 1,021 1,770 1.1 11.3 HOLD Sampoerna Agro 1,935 293 1,970 5.2 4.6 HOLD BW Plantation 370 936 550 (35.1) (71.3) BUY RM Felda Global V. 2.20 2,233 2.60 (30.2) (50.8) HOLD Genting Plantations 10.48 2,246 12.75 2.0 (3.0) BUY IOI Corporation 4.74 8,390 4.10 1.9 39.0 FV IJM Plantation 3.65 894 3.80 13.0 13.0 HOLD KL Kepong 22.90 6,786 19.50 8.6 (3.1) FV Sime Darby 9.56 16,522 9.75 0.8 4.6 HOLD TSH Resources 2.30 868 2.65 1.2 21.5 BUY S$ Bumitama Agri 1.03 1,346 1.32 1.5 12.0 BUY First Resources 1.94 2,284 2.00 1.8 (5.4) HOLD Indofood Agri R. 0.73 769 0.79 (9.9) (9.3) HOLD Golden Agri R. 0.43 4,103 0.46 (11.3) (18.9) NR Wilmar Int’l 3.24 15,401 3.40 3.5 0.0 HOLD

14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20FCPO price (RM/MT FOB P.Gudang) 2,413 2,400 2,590 2,620 2,650 2,740 2,840CPO price (US$/MT FOB P.Gudang) 738 659 706 715 725 748 776Prev. CPO price (RM/MT FOB P.Gudang) 2,380 2,300 2,530 2,480 2,550 2,670 2,880Prev. CPO price (US$/MT FOB P.Gudang) 740 727 814 800 823 861 929

Soybean price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 457 347 360 351 359 369 382Soybean oil price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 812 721 782 787 798 823 852Previous SB price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 460 408 384 388 405 431 460Previous SBO price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 860 846 864 850 874 914 986

TSR20 price (US$/MT) 1,721 1,433 1,607 1,727 1,735 1,735 1,735Prev. TSR20 px (US$/MT) 1,777 1,713 1,662 1,701 1,739 1,802 1,874

Sugar price (US$/MT) 421 370 370 370 360 360 360Prev. sugar px (US$/MT) 380 370 370 370 360 360 360



Peer comparison Source: Companies, Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, AllianceDBS



Page 2

Es t. la nd ba nk

14F own ma t.

15F own ma t.

14F own

p la nte d

15F own

p la nte dSha re pri c e Ma rke t c a p

Adjuste d 15F

EV/p la nte d

Adjuste d 15F

EV/ma ture

14F-17F own FFB vo l

CAGR

14F-17F EPS

CAGR Re cTa rge t p ric e Ba s i s

(ha .) (ha .) (ha .) (ha .) (ha .) 23/1/15 (m) (own) (own) 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F % %

Indone s ia

Astra Agro L. n/a 191,085 194,389 232,622 242,622 24,000Rp 3,032US$ 13,100US$ 16,351US$ 15.7 12.5 2.1 2.9 33.5 25.5 11.0 1.4 6.1 15.3 H 24,700Rp DCF

BW Plantation 419,006 86,497 99,561 134,013 142,013 370Rp 936US$ 9,447US$ 13,475US$ 54.9 13.2 0.3 1.1 15.9 316.6 45.9 40.2 19.8 45.0 B 550Rp DCF

London Sum.* 215,917 76,531 79,661 93,845 94,845 1,865Rp 1,021US$ 9,530US$ 11,346US$ 13.6 11.9 2.4 3.0 21.9 14.1 NC NC 5.3 5.9 H 1,770Rp DCF

Sampoerna A. 246,873 56,022 57,439 74,712 76,755 1,935Rp 293US$ 4,970US$ 6,642US$ 9.9 8.6 0.8 2.6 208.9 15.7 34.8 29.2 10.0 5.1 H 1,970Rp DCF

Simple a vg 5,282US$ 9 ,262US$ 11 ,953US$ 23.5 11.5

Ma la ys ia

Felda Global V. 355,864 259,425 258,853 323,587 323,587 2.20RM 2,233US$ 9,290US$ 11,614US$ 20.7 13.5 2.4 3.7 -63.2 53.3 3.5 0.5 0.4 27.7 H 2.60RM DCF

Genting Plant. 150,912 87,752 92,457 120,441 125,441 10.48RM 2,246US$ 21,598US$ 29,303US$ 26.4 20.8 0.8 1.1 32.1 27.2 NC NC 10.1 16.6 B 12.75RM SOP

IJM Plant. 78,484 34,102 44,340 55,389 58,389 3.65RM 894US$ 15,178US$ 19,987US$ 22.0 17.7 1.5 2.5 -25.9 67.1 19.3 27.3 16.7 24.6 H 3.80RM DCF

IOI Corp** 220,593 151,947 151,542 176,964 180,639 4.74RM 8,390US$ 14,497US$ 17,280US$ 15.5 30.0 4.5 0.8 55.7 -84.4 56.7 77.2 1.7 0.1 FV 4.10RM DCF

KL Kepong 245,905 168,828 176,529 193,131 192,958 22.90RM 6,786US$ 13,674US$ 14,946US$ 25.5 25.8 2.4 2.1 8.1 -12.9 19.7 20.1 3.5 6.5 FV 19.50RM DCF

Sime Darby 647,373 461,991 462,695 525,290 525,325 9.56RM 16,522US$ 11,146US$ 12,654US$ 19.3 18.5 2.9 2.3 -10.2 -21.0 23.1 22.2 3.3 2.5 H 9.75RM SOP

TSH Res. 82,841 27,898 30,398 39,763 43,763 2.30RM 868US$ 14,626US$ 21,057US$ 23.3 21.7 1.1 1.2 -6.0 7.6 84.8 83.2 14.0 16.9 B 2.65RM DCF

Simple a vg 37,939US$ 14,287US$ 18,120US$ 21.8 21.1

Singa pore

Bumitama A. 191,561 77,280 91,834 119,573 123,573 1.03S$ 1,346US$ 13,606US$ 18,308US$ 13.9 11.4 0.8 1.1 40.9 21.8 46.6 32.6 18.3 16.2 B 1.32S$ DCF

First Resources 312,488 115,299 120,778 162,727 172,727 1.94S$ 2,284US$ 14,337US$ 20,503US$ 13.2 13.7 2.4 2.0 -27.3 -3.7 11.9 0.3 8.8 10.6 H 2.00S$ DCF

Golden Agri R. 558,000 350,796 362,132 380,102 389,102 0.43S$ 4,103US$ 16,088US$ 17,287US$ 19.3 13.3 1.5 1.7 -35.6 45.3 25.6 24.2 5.2 30.0 NR 0.46S$ DCF

Indofood Agri* 541,224 190,738 202,853 249,172 258,406 0.73S$ 769US$ 5,637US$ 7,181US$ 11.3 9.9 0.0 0.0 54.3 14.1 22.2 20.7 7.7 20.2 H 0.79S$ DCF

Wilmar Int'l 573,401 233,162 235,923 246,048 251,048 3.24S$ 15,401US$ 3,397US$ 3,615US$ 14.3 14.3 1.4 1.4 -18.2 0.2 76.0 67.9 3.7 3.4 H 3.40S$ DCF

Simple a vg 23,903US$ 12,417US$ 15,820US$ 14.4 12.5* Including rubber and other crops** Excluding effective stake in associates land bank

FY Div. yie ld ,

%

EPS growth (inc . BA

ga ins ), %

FY Ne t ge a ring,

%CY PER, x



Analyst Ben SANTOSO +65 6682 3707 [email protected] Marvin KHOR +603 2604 3911 [email protected] Indonesian Research Team

Table of contents

Peer comparison 2

Strategy and stock picks 4 A buyer’s market 4 FY14F-16F earnings revised 4 Changes to our earnings and valuations 4 Poor refining margin may drag 4Q14 earnings 6 Tackling Indonesia’s refining overcapacity 6 Towards sustainable palm oil? 7 Key risks to our call 9

Impacts from external headwinds 10

Palm oil prices to average lower this year 10 Expect demand shift to soybean oil 10 Palm oil supply growth to decelerate in 2016F 11 3QCY14 results review and 4QCY14 results preview 12

STOCK PROFILE 15

Astra Agro Lestari 16 Bumitama Agri 17 BW Plantation 18 Felda Global Venture 19

First Resources 20 Genting Plantations 21 Golden Agri Resources 22

IJM Plantation 23

Indofood Agri Resources 24

IOI Corporation 25 KL Kepong 26 London Sumatra Indonesia 27

Sampoerna Agro 28 Sime Darby 29 TSH Resources 30 Wilmar International 31

Disclaimer 32



Strategy and stock picks A buyer’s market

We expect palm oil prices to remain range-bound (i.e. c.US$600–c.US$700/MT, FOB Pasir Gudang) this year, with much of the anticipated weakness in 1H15. Plantation counters may see a correction in the near-term (regional PER still trades above historical mean); as palm oil prices drift lower. Accumulate young planters on this weakness; as their faster volume growths add leverage in a price recovery. We forecast CPO prices to rebound in CY16 – premised on a projected drop in palm oil stockpile relative to consumption (to six-year low). We believe the market should price this from 2H15. Our top picks are BW Plantation (BWPT) and Genting Plantations (GENP), TSH Resources (TSH) and Bumitama Agri (BAL) for 49%, 22%, 15% and 28% upside, respectively. FY14F-16F earnings revised

In this report, we cut Indofood Agri rating to HOLD; as we expect poor refining margins to continue to weigh down earnings. KL Kepong is also cut to Fully Valued due to significant downside potential to our revised TP.

Our Fully Valued call on IOI Corporation is also maintained. We believe the market has not priced in IOI’s significant USD debt exposure given Ringgit depreciation. Our HOLD calls on Astra Agro, London Sumatra, Sampoerna Agro, Felda Global, IJM Plantations, Sime Darby, First Resources and Wilmar International are unchanged Changes to our earnings and valuations

In addition to lower CY15F-17F CPO prices (US$/MT, FOB Pasir Gudang), we imputed lower Rubber (TSR20) and RBD Palm Olein prices. However, we raised Palm Kernel Oil, Coconut Oil, Cocoa and Coffee prices higher; in line with World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Jan15). We also cut fertiliser (urea, phosphate, and potash) price forecasts, in view of the drop in crude oil prices. Apart from realized CY14 ASP adjustment; our long-term sugar price assumptions remained unchanged. We rolled-over our valuation base year for planters with financial years ending March and June; but maintained FY15F base year for planters with financial year ending September and December. Our fair value estimates are likewise adjusted to reflect this. Changes to earnings and TP estimates are summarized below:

Summary of EPS and TP revisions Source: DBS Bank, AllianceDBS estimates

R

Pre v. CY14

F EPS

Pre v. CY15

F EPS

Ne w CY14

F EPS

Ne w CY15

F EPS

CY14F

EPS re v.

CY15F

EPS re v.

Pre v. TP

Ne w TP

TP re v. Comme nts

Indone s ia (EPS/TP)Astra Agro Lestari (Rp) H 1,894 1,865 1,528 1,917 -19% 3% 22,400 24,700 10% Buoyed by weaker IDRBW Plantation (Rp) B 8 25 7 28 -12% 13% 545 550 1% Cut in planting, FX lossesLondon Sumatra (Rp) H 153 142 137 157 -10% 11% 1,760 1,770 1% High-cost, low growthSampoerna Agro (Rp) H 184 198 195 225 6% 14% 2,020 1,970 -2% High-cost, cut in FFB yield/planting

Ma la ys ia (EPS/TP)Felda Global V. (sen/RM) H 10.6 16.2 10.6 16.3 0% 0% 3.30 2.60 -21% Cut sugar, downstream marginsGenting Plant. (sen/RM) B 42.8 44.2 39.7 50.5 -7% 14% 12.35 12.75 3% Buoyed by weaker MYRIJM Plantations (sen/RM) H 15.8 18.9 16.6 20.7 6% 9% 3.60 3.80 6% Buoyed by weaker MYR, val. rolloverIOI Corporation (sen/RM) FV 36.2 21.4 30.5 15.8 -16% -26% 3.95 4.10 4% FX losses, valuation rolloverKL Kepong (sen/RM) FV 91.0 90.9 89.9 88.7 -1% -2% 20.45 19.50 -5% Mnfg margin hit by crude oil px dropSime Darby (sen/RM) H 49.6 50.3 49.5 51.6 0% 3% 9.10 9.75 7% Buoyed by weaker MYR, val. rolloverTSH Resources (sen/RM) B 10.2 11.0 9.9 10.6 -3% -3% 2.55 2.65 4% Buoyed by weaker MYR

Singa pore (EPS/TP)Bumitama Agri (Rp/S$) B 683 748 686 835 0% 12% 1.19 1.32 11% Cut in new planting, buoyed by IDRFirst Resources (US¢/S$) H 10.8 12.3 10.9 10.5 2% -15% 2.09 2.00 -4% Hit by poor refining marginGolden Agri R. (US¢/S$) NR 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.4 0% -7% 0.46 0.46 0% No visibility on China operationsIndofood Agri (Rp/S$) H 830 809 596 680 -28% -16% 0.98 0.79 -19% Hit by poor refining marginWilmar Int'l (US¢/S$) H 17.3 17.6 16.8 16.9 -3% -4% 3.45 3.40 -1% Cut M&P utilisation rates



Regional sector PE is moving towards average Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank estimates Summary of CPO, soybean, and soybean oil price revisions Source: DBS Bank estimates Revisions to our currency exchange rates Source: DBS Bank estimates

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+1sd: 18.5x

+2sd: 21.1x

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-2sd: 1.1x

14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20FCPO price (RM/MT FOB P.Gudang) 2,413 2,400 2,590 2,620 2,650 2,740 2,840CPO price (US$/MT FOB P.Gudang) 738 659 706 715 725 748 776Prev. CPO price (RM/MT FOB P.Gudang) 2,380 2,300 2,530 2,480 2,550 2,670 2,880Prev. CPO price (US$/MT FOB P.Gudang) 740 727 814 800 823 861 929

Soybean price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 457 347 360 351 359 369 382Soybean oil price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 812 721 782 787 798 823 852Previous SB price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 460 408 384 388 405 431 460Previous SBO price (US$/MT FOB Chicago) 860 846 864 850 874 914 986

TSR20 price (US$/MT) 1,721 1,433 1,607 1,727 1,735 1,735 1,735Prev. TSR20 px (US$/MT) 1,777 1,713 1,662 1,701 1,739 1,802 1,874

Sugar price (US$/MT) 421 370 370 370 360 360 360Prev. sugar px (US$/MT) 380 370 370 370 360 360 360

FX ra te s (ye a r-e nd) 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20FUSD/MYR 3.50 3.68 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66USD/IDR 12,440 12,900 12,700 12,700 12,700 12,700 12,700USD/SGD 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34USD/THB 32.9 33.6 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2

Pre vious FX ra te s (ye a r-e nd) 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20FUSD/MYR 3.20 3.14 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10USD/IDR 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750USD/SGD 1.26 1.22 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20USD/THB 32.3 31.8 31.6 31.60 31.60 31.60 31.60

% stre ngthe n (we a ke n) 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20FUSD/MYR -8% -15% -15% -15% -15% -15% -15%USD/IDR -6% -9% -7% -7% -7% -7% -7%USD/SGD -5% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10%USD/THB -2% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5%



Poor refining margin may drag 4Q14 earnings

Both Malaysian and Indonesian governments have waived CPO export taxes (to 0%) since Oct14; and we expect this to continue this year. Palm oil refiners unfortunately have become victims to this policy; as they now face higher feedstock costs. Severe flooding in Malaysia since mid Dec14 and a hike in both CPO and RBD Olein import taxes in India have put further pressure. In our estimates (shown in chart below), 4Q14 refining margin (spot-basis) averaged US$8.1/MT in Indonesia, but US$6.9/MT loss in Malaysia.

The impact on branded refining margins should be less severe however, as changes in end-product prices lag spot. Hedged bulk refining may also report better numbers. But bulk refiners caught in Dec14 CPO price upswing are likely to report poor margins close to our estimates. We do not expect refining margin to turnaround in subsequent quarters. Based on our revised CPO and RDB Olein price forecasts, we expect CY15 palm oil refining margin to average US$6/MT loss in Malaysia; and average approximately US$7/MT loss in Indonesia.

Palm oil refining margins Source: Bloomberg finance LP, SEA of India, MPOB, DBS Bank estimates Quarterly palm oil refining margin estimates (calculated based on spot CPO, RBD Olein, RBD Stearin, PFAD prices) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, SEA of India, MPOB, DBS Bank estimates

Unlike the poor refining margins however, upstream plantations should book sequentially higher CPO ASP in 4Q14, principally on the back of zero export taxes since Oct14, weaker Ringgit and Rupiah, and a price upswing since mid Dec14. Our preview of 4Q14 earnings is presented on page 12.

Tackling Indonesia’s refining overcapacity

Just as changes in Indonesian export tax structure since Sep11 helped to boost downstream processing margins there, the tide has now turned. Not only did the Indonesian government overlooked policy responses by Indian and Malaysian governments; the structure also promoted unfettered capacity expansion 10-years ahead of potential output.

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Indonesia refining margin

(US$/MT)

Malaysia refining margin

(US$/MT)

Change in Indonesian export tax rates effective

India RBD Olein import

duty (US$/MT)

India unfreezes the import base

prices for refined oils

Malaysia applies new CPO export

tax structure

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14Indonesia 67.4 109.5 93.5 45.6 77.0 55.2 74.7 42.0 23.0 40.7 24.7 15.6 3.1 8.1 gross refining margin 6% 11% 10% 5% 9% 7% 10% 5% 3% 5% 3% 2% 0% 1%Malaysia 28.3 22.0 -15.4 -1.0 13.2 33.2 17.6 32.1 35.6 30.9 36.8 45.0 46.4 -6.9 gross refining margin 3% 2% -1% 0% 1% 4% 2% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% -1%



We understand Indonesian refining capacity has now reached 45m MT vs. forecast CY15 palm oil output of 32.5m MT; and that only c.70% of this capacity is currently being utilized; with close to negative refining margins. In comparison, Malaysia’s refining capacity in operation now stands at 26m MT vs. forecast CY15 palm oil output of 20.1m MT. While three consecutive quarters of negative refining margins in Indonesia should theoretically put a stop to further expansion, the current export tax structure nevertheless no longer benefit the processors, while continuing to undercut the planters/smallholders. For this reason, we believe the Indonesian government may readjust its export tax policies. In view of the drop in crude oil prices and its positive impact on the budget and consumer purchasing power, we believe the following changes to Indonesian export tax structure should benefit all stakeholders: 1. Lower all export tax rates 2. Maintain the export tax-spread for refiners (i.e. producers of

RBD Olein, RBD Stearin, and PFAD); as current poor margins should discourage additional capacity

3. Widen the export tax spread for higher value-add end-products to encourage expansion further downstream

We do not expect these tweaks to attract significant reactions from India or Malaysia as they do not provide room for price

discounts for RBD Olein exports (export tax spreads remain the same). Yet, the changes should benefit the planters to offset the drop in commodity prices – while potentially expand corporate income tax revenue. On the demand side, lower gasoline prices should ease concerns over potentially higher domestic cooking oil prices (in consequence of reduced export taxes). According to our economist, export tax revenues make up only 1% of overall Indonesian tax revenues or c.2.5% of 2014 income tax revenues (i.e. insignificant). For each 1% cut in CPO export taxes, the Indonesian government would have a c.US$148m revenue shortfall. Yet, our economist believes the benefits would outweigh the cost; given the multiplier effect among farmers/labour force in the agriculture sector. He estimates that lowering CPO export tax by 1% (c.US$0.15bn for 2015) may translate to 0.001-0.005ppt boost in GDP growth (or c.US$2.5bn). We believe this market-based approach is more effective compared to proposed tax allowances for downstream investors. Should the Indonesian government move to adjust the export tax structure this way, the key beneficiaries are Indonesian upstream planters and downstream players with existing capabilities in addition to value-add products, such as oleochemicals and specialty fats in Indonesia. Wilmar would be our pick for this event.

Indonesia’s current export tax structure

Source: Finance Ministry of Indonesia (Ministerial Decree no. No. 128/PMK.011/2011) Towards sustainable palm oil?

In view of various negative campaigns against palm oil and the significant drop in new planting over the past few years, in this report we reviewed the sustainability of policies/practices of planters under our coverage. We found that while most are members of RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil), have

certified palm oil output, and are working towards sustainable practices, most still do not update and/or have readily-available measureable information on sustainability achievements on their websites.

Reference price (US$/MT ) <700701-750

751-800

801-850

851-900

901-950

951-1,000

1,001-1,050

1,051-1,100

1,101-1,150

1,151-1,200

1,201-1,250 >1,251

FFB & Palm Kernel 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%Crude Palm Oil (CPO) 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0% 16.5% 18.0% 19.5% 21.0% 22.5%Crude Olein 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%RBD Palm Olein 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.5% 13.0%RBD Palm Kernel Olein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%Crude Stearin 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%Crude Palm Kernel Oil 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0% 16.5% 18.0% 19.5% 21.0% 22.5%Crude Kernel Olein 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%Crude Kernel Stearin/PFAD 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%RBD Palm Kernel Oil 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%RBD Palm Oil 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%RBD Palm Stearin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%RBD Palm Kernel Stearin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%Fatty Acid Methyl Esters 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5%RBD Palm Olein ≤20 kg packs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Progressiv e export s tax rates



Over the past few years, the industry has been subjected to intense pressure to avoid deforestation and/or expansion on peat lands. Yet, a breakdown of RSPO as a unified forum for sustainability over the past year has created splinter ISPO (Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil) and MSPO (Malaysia Sustainable Palm Oil) certification standards – in addition to ISCC (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification - primarily for sales to the EU). Now, the drive is to avoid HCS (High Carbon Stock) altogether. Just as Forest Conversion Moratorium in Indonesia (since 2011) has dramatically slowed down issuances of new leasehold titles, a lack of universal standard criteria for HCS is prompting most planters to suspend new planting on suspected HCS areas within plantable reserves. According to a study by Golden Agri Resources, The Forest Trust and Greenpeace, HCS is broadly defined as land with vegetation threshold of 35 MT carbon/ha and above. The HCS Approach, as it is called, does not include peat land areas. All peat soils are prohibited for development under RSPO’s new planting procedures, even though prevailing Indonesian regulation allows planting on some peat soil (up to three meters deep). A recent paper entitled “Guiding Agricultural Expansion to Spare Tropical Forests” in Journal of Society for Conservation

Biology (Wiley online library) pointed that there is approximately 2.8m ha of Low Carbon Density Land (i.e. blocks of over 5,000 ha and <500m elevation) in Indonesia suitable for commodity crops (oil palm, rubber, sugarcane). This is far bigger than our forecast oil palm expansion of only 0.6m ha through 2025. Yet, the report did not discuss such land’s availability (i.e. legal access, infrastructure, rainfall, etc.) to planters. In Jul14, several large plantation groups announced an initiative for sustainable palm oil production (called Sustainable Palm Oil Manifesto or SPOM), which included three key principles: 1. No deforestation (although a definition of HCS has yet to be

defined) 2. Protect peat areas (regardless of depth) 3. Drive positive socio-economic impact for people and

communities We understand HCS-suspected areas are being excluded from new development until HCS definition (SPOM version) is established. The study’s completion is expected in Oct/Nov15. Not surprisingly, there should be minimal new planting this year for signatories of SPOM: Asian Agri, Cargill, IOI Corporation, KL Kepong, Musim Mas, and Sime Darby. A snapshot of the various stages in which planters are pursuing sustainable practices is summarized below.

Various stages of sustainability engagement Source: Companies

RSPO member

SPOM s ignatory

HCS Approach Steering

Group member

RSPO-certified pa lm oil

(MT)

% of CPO

output (LPD)

ISPO-certified

hectarage (ha )

ISCC-certified hectarage

( inc. s ma llholders )

Work ing with NGO NGO

Astra Agro Lestari N N N 0 0% 71,909 0 N -London Sumatra I. Y N N 194,807 49% 8,071 0 N -Sampoerna Agro Y N N 21,000 8% 36,000 6,000 N -BW Plantation Y N N 0 0% 0 0 N -

Felda Global Venture Y N N NR NR NR NR NR NRGenting Plantations Y N N 0 0% 0 60,000 Y AidenvironmentIJM Plantations Y N N 0 0% 0 0 N -IOI Corporation Y Y N 734,410 98% 0 149,248 N -KL Kepong Y Y N 640,000 77% in progress 120,000* Y t.b.a.Sime Darby Y Y N 2,142,773 93% 44,992 204,986* N -TSH Resources Y N N 0 0% 0 0 N -

Bumitama Agri Y N N 98,140 19% 15,056 0 N -First Resources Y N N 0 0% 48,344 53,363 N -Indofood Agri R. Y N N 331,598 41% 8,071 0 N -Golden Agri R. Y N Y 1,235,945 55% 35,789 266,843 Y TFT, Greenpeace, WWFWilmar Int'l Y N Y 671,570 36% in progress in progress Y TFT

HCS: High Carbon Stock RSPO: Roundtable on Sustainable Palm OilISCC: International Sustainability and Carbon Certification System SPOM: Sustainable Palm Oil ManifestoISPO: Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil (mandatory for planters with mills) TFT: The Forest TrustLPD: Latest Practicable Date WWF: World Wildlife FundNGO: Non Governmental Organization NR: No response

* ex. smallholders, Malaysia estates only



Key risks to our call

Risks against our calls are summarised below: 1. Energy price volatility. In our forecasts, we employed

Brent crude oil average price of US$85/bbl flat for the long term. Energy price volatility would impact demand for palm and soybean oil for energy use – subject to biodiesel subsidies.

2. Weather anomalies. Extreme weather anomalies such as

dryness in 1Q14 and 3Q14 as well as flooding in 4Q14 would disrupt supply in the affected estates and influence palm oil prices. Likewise, dryness/flooding in soybean growing regions would influence prices of soybean oil.

3. Chinese economic growth. We imputed demand growth

for both soybean and palm oil based on Oct14 IMF global GDP growth forecasts. Weaker-than-expected economic growth forecasts globally would bear adverse consequences to our price forecasts. In this sector, Chinese economic growth is an important demand proxy. China occupies 14% and 47% shares of global palm oil and soybean oil (implied) imports respectively.

4. Change in export/import tax structure. Changes in Indian soybean and palm oil import taxes would have implications on Indian demand. India accounts for 19% of both palm oil and soybean oil imports globally.

5. The pace of South American soybean sales may also

have some bearing on price direction in 2015. Recent USD strength may prompt increased soybean exports and result in further price pressures.

6. Shift in seasonal planting. The price divergence in soybean

and corn prices may shift farmers’ planting to corn for 2015/16 marketing year. In our estimates, a corn price recovery above US$4.17/bu. would prompt farmers to shift planted acreage from soybeans to corn on better economics. In turn, this may boost CY16F soybean prices higher than we currently expect.

7. Faster-than-expected rise in production cost. The unit

cost of producing one MT of CPO in Indonesia is rising faster than inflation. Recent increases in workers' wages and inefficiencies in estate management have all taken a toll on cost and may further erode margins. Changes in fertiliser costs also have implications on planters’ profitability.



Impacts from external headwinds Palm oil prices to average lower this year

We cut CY15/16/17 CPO price forecasts (US$/MT, FOB Pasir Gudang) by 9%/13%/11% to US$659/US$706/$715, respectively, to account for prospective drop in soybean oil prices and strong USD. However given stronger USD forecasts, prices were adjusted higher in Ringgit terms (2-6%) to RM2,400/2,590/2,620, respectively. Our estimates employ average soybean oil prices of US$721/MT in CY15F; US$782/MT in CY16F; and US$787/bbl in CY17F – representing 16%/9%/6% downgrades from previous forecasts, respectively.

Swings in crude oil price should not linearly impact our palm oil price forecasts as crude oil price movements are c.40% correlated (based on Bloomberg weekly data since 2007). We expect discretionary biodiesel demand (ex-mandates) to remain lacklustre this year on negative spreads. Our revised palm oil supply and demand forecasts are summarized below:

Palm oil supply and demand forecast Source: USDA, Oil World, DBS Bank estimates Expect demand shift to soybean oil

We adjusted our soybean prices lower, as we imputed higher than previously expected soybean harvests for 2014/15 marketing year. The drop in crude oil prices (a variable in our forecasts) had also negatively influenced our soybean price

outlook. We believe soybean oil prices risk further downside pressure if extra soybean supplies from Argentina flood the export markets – in an event of a Peso-devaluation. Our revised soybean supply and demand is summarized below:

Soybean supply and demand forecast Source: USDA, Oil World, EIA short-term outlook (Jan15), Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank estimates

Price of soybeans (US$/MT)

(FOB)

Ending Stocks (k MT)

Global demand (k MT)

Global supply (k MT)

Stock/ usage rat io (%)

Crude o il price

(US$/bbl)

Price of soybeans (US$/MT)

(FOB)





Crude o il price

(US$/bbl)

2014 457 69,020 275,910 284,980 25.0% 99 2014 460 70,260 274,790 285,150 25.6% 1042015 347 89,000 292,940 312,920 30.4% 58 2015 412 86,500 290,480 307,760 29.8% 1002016 360 94,871 312,973 318,844 30.3% 75 2016 383 96,589 307,361 317,450 31.4% 972017 351 96,076 328,158 329,363 29.3% 85 2017 382 101,250 323,653 328,314 31.3% 992018 359 93,386 342,212 339,522 27.3% 85 2018 394 101,261 338,825 338,836 29.9% 1022019 369 90,866 355,251 352,731 25.6% 85 2019 415 99,848 352,834 351,421 28.3% 1052020 382 86,557 367,283 362,974 23.6% 85 2020 440 96,847 365,801 362,801 26.5% 109

New forecasts - Soybeans Prev. forecasts - Soybeans

CPO price

(US$/MT) FOB





Soybean o il price (US$/MT)

FOB

CPO price

(US$/MT) FOB





Soybean o il price (US$/MT)

FOB2014 738 10,316 58,751 59,586 17.6% 812 2014 734 10,316 58,751 59,576 17.6% 8602015 659 10,496 61,954 62,135 16.9% 721 2015 726 10,572 61,954 62,210 17.1% 8542016 706 10,759 64,824 65,087 16.6% 782 2016 813 10,744 64,793 64,965 16.6% 8632017 715 11,272 67,595 68,108 16.7% 787 2017 800 11,016 67,502 67,774 16.3% 8362018 725 11,910 70,240 70,878 17.0% 798 2018 823 11,277 70,058 70,319 16.1% 8492019 748 12,667 72,744 73,502 17.4% 823 2019 861 11,754 72,448 72,924 16.2% 8812020 776 13,010 75,090 75,433 17.3% 852 2020 930 11,941 74,658 74,846 16.0% 943

New forecasts - Palm Oil Prev. forecasts - Palm Oil



Palm oil supply growth to decelerate in 2016F

We expect Malaysian palm oil output to expand to 2% this year to 20.1m MT. On average, Malaysian FFB yield should remain flat y-o-y, as sporadic dryness in 1Q14 and 3Q14 may have adverse impact this year. Moreover, heavier-than-normal seasonal rainfall, which had caused severe flooding and damaged newly replanted trees, would also have some negative impact on palm oil production. We expect Indonesian

CY15 palm oil production growth to decelerate to 5.4% y-o-y (from 7.1%) to 32.1m MT. We anticipate lagged impact from dryness in CY14 to likewise keep Indonesian 2015 FFB yields flat at 19.7MT/ha. In total, we forecast global palm oil supply to expand 4.3% y-o-y to 62.1m MT. A summary of our production forecasts is presented below.

Palm oil supply and hectarage forecasts

Source: Oil World, MPOB, Ministry of Agriculture of Indonesia, DBS Bank estimates

Oi l palm planted area ('000 hectares)2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Mature 4,526.1 4,683.2 4,780.9 4,881.1 4,992.1 5,060.2 5,100.8 5,123.8 Immature 703.7 645.9 612.8 554.4 470.8 420.4 391.3 375.8 Implied new planting 242.6 192.6 162.5 143.5 132.5 126.9 123.9 122.4Malaysia 5,229.7 5,329.1 5,393.6 5,435.6 5,462.9 5,480.6 5,492.1 5,499.6

Mature 7,037.5 7,606.3 7,948.8 8,056.5 8,097.8 8,121.1 8,140.2 8,141.8 Immature 2,159.8 1,704.6 1,467.0 1,456.4 1,505.0 1,564.7 1,622.4 1,691.9 Implied new planting 231.4 200.5 200.5 198.4 263.5 260.2 257.2 300.4Indonesia 9,197.3 9,310.8 9,415.8 9,512.9 9,602.7 9,685.8 9,762.7 9,833.8

Mature 11,563.6 12,289.4 12,729.7 12,937.6 13,089.9 13,181.3 13,241.0 13,265.7 Immature 2,863.4 2,350.5 2,079.8 2,010.9 1,975.7 1,985.1 2,013.8 2,067.7 Implied new planting 474.0 393.1 363.0 341.9 395.9 387.2 381.0 422.8Total 14,427.1 14,639.9 14,809.4 14,948.5 15,065.6 15,166.4 15,254.8 15,333.4 % growth 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

CPO production (m MT)2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Malaysia 19.216 19.667 20.095 20.810 21.684 22.576 23.393 24.151 vol. growth 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 % growth 2.3 2.3 2.2 3.6 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2Indonesia 28.400 30.419 32.060 33.602 35.023 36.198 37.310 37.895 vol. growth 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 % growth 5.6 7.1 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.4 3.1 1.6Others 8.698 9.500 9.979 10.675 11.401 12.104 12.798 13.387 vol. growth 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 % growth 6.1 9.2 5.0 7.0 6.8 6.2 5.7 4.6Total 56.314 59.586 62.135 65.087 68.108 70.878 73.502 75.433 vol. growth 2.4 3.3 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.9 % growth 4.5 5.8 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.1 3.7 2.6



3QCY14 results review and 4QCY14 results preview

Company Results vs

forecasts

3QCY14 results highlights Realised

FFB yield

Realised

CPO ASP

4QCY14 results preview

Astra Agro Lestari Below 3Q14 core profit (ex. FX losses of Rp76bn) of Rp591bn (+19% y-o-y; -18% q-o-q) was well below the lower end of our forecast range of Rp742bn. Key culprits were lower-than-expected CPO ASP (est.5% below forecast), lower-than-expected CPO sales volume (including internal sales; est.7% below forecast), and higher-than expected income tax rate of 32% vis-à-vis FY14 forecast of 25%; while 3Q14 operating expenses were c.10% higher than expected.

c.7.8 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp7,955 /kg

We expect AALI to report 4QCY14 earnings of Rp522bn. The group is due to announce its results on 20 Feb15.

BW Plantation Below 3Q14 earnings came in at Rp17bn (-68% q-o-q;

-18% y-o-y). The sequential drop in earnings was due to a 12% q-o-q drop in CPO ASP to Rp7,200/kg and 21% q-o-q drop in PK ASP to Rp4,200/kg; lower-than-expected CPO sales volume (-12% q-o-q) – on the back of shipment delays and sequentially lower yields – as well as sequential jump in tax rate. 3Q14 GPM and NPM consequently eased to 35% and 6%, from 42% and 15% in 2Q14, respectively.

c.3.4 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp7,200 /kg

BWPT’s FY14 earnings will not be comparable to reported earnings YTD, as based on Reverse Takeover accounting, BWPT is due to report Green Eagle Holding’s FY14 results (audited) in the week of 23 Mar15

London Sumatra Indonesia

Below 3Q14 earnings came in at Rp228bn (-14% y-o-y; -8% q-o-q). Weaker-than-expected results were attributable to a 7% qo-q drop in CPO ASP to Rp7,833/kg and 21% q-o-q drop in PK ASP. to Rp4,735/kg. The 13%/16%/19% q-o-q increases in CPO/PK/Rubber sales volumes were not enough to offset weaker ASP. OPM/NPM hence contracted to 26%/20% from 30%/23% in 2Q14 – as operating expenses expanded 47% q-o-q. Lonsum remained debt free.

c.4.7 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp7,833 /kg

We expect Lonsum to report 4QCY14 earnings of Rp239bn, primarily due to seasonally higher output. The group is due to announce its results on 27 Feb15

Sampoerna Agro

Above 3Q14 earnings came in at Rp125bn (-4% q-o-q; 30 fold higher y-o-y). Strong earnings were driven by 27%/17% y-o-y jumps in CPO sales volume/CPO ASP, and 79% y-o-y jump in PK sales volume – on extra boost from 39% y-o-y rise external FFB purchases to 256k MT. 3Q14 top line likewise jumped by 138% y-o-y. Higher external FFB also boosted 3Q14 COGS by 112% y-o-y (+43% q-o-q). GPM and NPM thus eased to 25% and 12% from 33% and 16%, respectively, in 2Q14.

c.4.7 MT/ha (inc. plasma)

c.Rp8,051 /kg

We expect SGRO to report 4QCY14 earnings of Rp20bn, as we expect drop in output due to dryness and sequentially lower ASP. The group is scheduled to announce its results on 31 Mar15

Felda Global Ventures

Below Ex. net FX and disposal gains of RM0.9m, unrealized losses on commodity contracts in Canada of RM52.0m, Land Lease Agreement (LLA) charge of RM238m (net of tax) less LLA payment of RM257m, FGV’s 3Q14 core net income jumped 3-fold to RM54.7m, but this was well below expectations. Losses in domestic refining and Canadian downstream operations weighed down the group’s overall performance.

c.5.2 MT/ha

c.RM2,317 /MT

We expect FGV to report 4QCY14 earnings of RM19m due to poor harvests and drop in Dec14 CPO production.

Genting Plantations

In line Net of FX gains/write-off, Genting Plantations’ 3Q14 core earnings of RM71m (-7% y-o-y; -18% q-o-q) were in line with RM67-78m expected.

N.A. c.RM2,216 /MT

We expect GENP to report 4QCY14 earnings of RM85.4m. The group is due to announce its results on 25 Feb15

Source: DBS Bank



3QCY14 results review and 4QCY14 results preview (continued)

Company Results vs forecasts

3QCY14 results highlights Realised FFB yield

Realised CPO ASP


IJM Plantations In line Ex. RM6.9m net FX losses, IJMP’s 2QFY15 core net income improved 5.6% y-o-y to RM34m – above our forecast of RM25m. This took 1HFY15 core net income to RM78m (+87% y-o-y), representing 56% of our fullyear estimate.

c.7.2 MT/ ha

c.RM2,241 /MT

We expect IJMP to report 4QCY14 earnings of c.RM41.8m. The group is due to announce its results on 27Feb15.

IOI Corporation Below Ex. FX losses and derivative fair value gains, core 1QCY15 came in at RM229m (-47% y-o-y; -15% q-o-q) – well below RM343-367m expected and represented only 15% of our FY forecast (vs. 23% historical). A RM105m contribution from Manufacturing was 30% below expectations, while Plantations segment came in 4% below.

c.6.5 MT/ ha

c. RM2,258 /MT

Excluding translational FX losses, we expect IOI to report 4QCY14 earnings of between RM134m and RM186m.

KL Kepong Below Excluding RM9.9m gains from disposal of

shares in an associate, KLK’s 4QFY14 core earnings of RM161m (-38% y-o-y; -31% q-o-q) were below expectations. This brought FY14 core earnings to RM986m – 10% below our forecast of RM1,092m

N.A. c.RM2,293 /MT

We expect KLK to report 4QCY14 earnings of between RM151m and RM186m .

Sime Darby

Below 1QFY15 earnings of RM500.7m (+2% y-o-y; -58% q-o-q) were well below RM826m-844m expected. Ex. RM55.5m gains from disposal of 9.9% stake in E&O and RM15.4m gains from disposal of properties, core earnings came in lower at RM430m (-3% y-o-y; -55% q-o-q).

c.5.6 MT/ha

c.RMx /MT

Sime is due to release its results on 26 Feb15

TSH Resources

Below Ex. RM4.3m net unrealised FX loss and RM0.6m disposal gain, 3Q14 core net income fell 32% y-o-y to RM27.9m. Weakness in 4Q14 CPO prices should be offset by seasonally stronger output towards the end of the year.

c.5.9 MT/ha

c.RM2,170 /MT

We expect TSH to report 4QCY14 earnings of c.RM37.4m. The group is due to announce its results on 24 Feb15.

Bumitama Agri Below Ex FX losses of Rp14bn, 3Q14 core earnings of

Rp299bn (+59% y-o-y; -21% q-o-q) were below Rp320-342bn expected due to higher-than-expected outside FFB. Own FFB output came below due to dryness in Sep-Oct. BAL also booked higher-than-expected selling costs due to Rupiah depreciation; while G&A spiked on annual Eid allowance.

c.4.3 MT/ha

Rp 8,140 /kg

Excluding FX gains, we expect Bumitama to report 4QCY14 earnings of Rp245bn. The group is due to announce its results on 23 Feb15.

First Resources Below Ex FX gains of US$1.3m, FR booked core

earnings of US$45m (-13% y-o-y; -51% q-o-q) – well below US$58-63m expected. FR posted implied 3Q14 CPO ASP of US$660/MT (vis-à-vis US$727/MT expected); while implied refining EBITDA/MT likewise eased to US$49/MT from the US$158/MT booked in 2Q14.

c.6.1 MT/ha

c.US$660 /MT

Excluding FX gains, we expect FR to report 4QCY14 earnings of US$41m. The group is due to release its results on 26 Feb15.

Indofood Agri Below Ex. translational FX losses of Rp55bn, 3Q14

core earnings of Rp180bn (-15% y-o-y; 43% q-o-q) were weaker than expected due to 5% lower CPO ASP for the quarter; Rp150bn adjustment for unrealized pretax from internal CPO sales (i.e. c.68k MT of CPO), 54% q-o-q drop in Edible Oils & Fats (EOF) EBITDA, and higher CPO stockpile at the estates. Sugar contributed Rp80bn of 3Q14 EBITDA (+54% q-o-q) as cane harvesting seasonally picks up.

c. 5.0 MT/ha

Rp7,917 /kg

The group expects CPO stockpiles at its refineries/ estates to be delivered/ processed in 4Q14. Excluding FX gains, we expect IndoAgri to report 4QCY14 earnings of Rp505bn. The group is due to release its results on 27 Feb15.

Source: DBS Bank



3QCY14 results review and 4QCY14 results preview (continued)

Company Results vs forecasts

3QCY14 results highlights Realised FFB yield

Realised CPO ASP


Golden Agri Resources

Below GGR booked US$26m core earnings (ex. FX losses and US$7.6m gain from disposal of 50% stake in JV), down 28 y-o-y and 47% q-o-q, significantly below US$61-68m estimate. Weak results were primarily due to US$18m EBITDA loss from China operations (weak crushing margins) and 32% drop in Palm & Lauric EBITDA (weak refining margin amidst industry overcapacity). Plantations segment also booked 31% q-o-q drop in EBITDA (-4%% y-o-y) as operating expenses expanded faster than expected.

c. 5.6 MT/ha

c. US$ 828 /MT

We expect Golden Agri to report 4QCY14 earnIngs of between US$22m. The group is due to announce its results on 27 Feb15.

Wilmar International

Above Core 3Q14 earnings of US$430m (+10% y-o-y; +164% q-o-q) were slightly ahead of our US$397-410m range. Core 9M14 net profit of US$808m (-15% y-o-y) accounted for 75% of FY14 forecast vs. 73% historical average. Reported 3Q14 earnings came in at US$422m (+2% y-o-y; +147% q-o-q).

c.4.9 MT/ha

N.A. We expect Wilmar to report 4QCY14 earnings of US$324m. We had lowered M&P volumes for both Oilseeds & Grains and Palm & Lauric, in view of YTD achievements. The group is due to release its results on 12 Feb15.

Source: DBS Bank



STOCK PROFILES


Astra Agro Lestari

Astra Agro Lestari (HOLD; Rp24,000; AALI IJ; Price Target : Rp24,700 (Prev: Rp22,400)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 12,675 15,293 17,090 18,569 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,575 EBITDA 3,258 4,347 5,010 5,830 Pre-tax Profit 2,605 3,544 4,201 5,002 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 37,794 / 3,032 Net Profit 1,801 2,405 3,020 3,596 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,801 2,405 3,020 3,596 PT Astra International Tbk (%) 79.7 EPS (Rp) 1,144 1,528 1,917 2,283 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 1,144 1,528 1,917 2,283 EPS Gth (%) (25) 34 26 19 Free Float (%) 20.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (25) 34 26 19 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,476 Diluted EPS (Rp) 1,144 1,528 1,917 2,283 Price Relative

Net DPS (Rp) 615 515 687 863 BV Per Share (Rp) 6,283 7,296 8,526 9,946 PE (X) 21.0 15.7 12.5 10.5 PE Pre Ex. (X) 21.0 15.7 12.5 10.5 P/Cash Flow (X) 13.3 11.6 9.2 7.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.3 9.1 7.7 6.4 Net Div Yield (%) 2.6 2.1 2.9 3.6 P/Book Value (X) 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.1 0.0 CASH ROAE (%) 19.0 22.5 24.2 24.7 Earnings Rev (%): (19.4) 2.8 (3.1) Consensus EPS (Rp): 1,640 1,778 1,937 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 12,675 15,293 17,090 18,569 Net Fixed Assets 6,494 6,820 7,041 7,130 Cost of Goods Sold (8,593) (10,572) (11,560) (12,266) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 4,082 4,721 5,531 6,303 Other LT Assets 6,778 7,323 8,142 9,017 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,077) (1,196) (1,381) (1,497) Cash & ST Invts 709 2,267 2,423 2,676 Operating Profit 3,005 3,524 4,150 4,806 Inventory 803 1,078 1,179 1,251 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (345) 61 28 133 Debtors 4 40 44 48 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 176 269 300 326 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (54) (41) 23 64 Total Assets 14,963 17,796 19,129 20,448 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 2,605 3,544 4,201 5,002 ST Debt 2,152 2,384 1,375 1,354 Tax (702) (1,028) (1,050) (1,251) Other Current Liab 1,608 1,842 2,039 2,193 Minority Interest (102) (111) (131) (156) LT Debt 571 1,205 1,249 0 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 365 393 424 467 Net Profit 1,801 2,405 3,020 3,596 Shareholder’s Equity 9,895 11,489 13,426 15,663 Net Profit before Except. 1,801 2,405 3,020 3,596 Minority Interests 373 484 615 771 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 1,801 2,405 3,020 3,596 Total Cap. & Liab. 14,963 17,796 19,129 20,448 EBITDA 3,258 4,347 5,010 5,830 Sales Gth (%) 9.6 20.7 11.8 8.7 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (625) (456) (516) (568) EBITDA Gth (%) (19.6) 33.4 15.2 16.4 Net Cash/(Debt) (2,014) (1,322) (202) 1,322 Opg Profit Gth (%) (13.0) 17.3 17.7 15.8 Net Profit Gth (%) (25.3) 33.5 25.5 19.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.9 29.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown

FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 2,605 3,544 4,201 5,002 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 599 762 832 892 CPO 11,495 10,802 10,838 11,731 Tax Paid 0 0 0 0 PK 1,161 1,804 1,865 1,980 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PKO 26 43 44 45 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 399 (32) 138 114 Refined products 0 2,644 4,343 4,813 Other Operating CF (760) (1,028) (1,050) (1,251) Others (8) 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 2,843 3,246 4,120 4,758 Total 12,675 15,293 17,090 18,569 Capital Exp.(net) (2,727) (1,782) (1,891) (1,860) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (244) (54) (59) (57) Net Investing CF (2,971) (1,836) (1,950) (1,917) Div Paid (968) (811) (1,082) (1,359) Chg in Gross Debt 1,753 825 (964) (1,271) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (176) 134 32 42 Net Financing CF 609 148 (2,015) (2,587) Source: Company, DBS Bank

43

63

83

103

123

143

163

183

203

11,970.0

16,970.0

21,970.0

26,970.0

31,970.0

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Relative IndexRp

Astra Agro Lestari (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Bumitama Agri

Bumitama Agri (BUY; S$1.03; BAL SP; Price Target : S$ 1.32 (Prev: S$ 1.19)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 4,063 5,717 6,054 6,498 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,758 EBITDA 1,451 2,104 2,596 2,990 Pre-tax Profit 1,268 1,862 2,283 2,690 Mkt. Cap (S$bn/US$m) 1,810 / 1,346 Net Profit 855 1,205 1,467 1,735 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 855 1,205 1,467 1,735 Fortune Holdings (%) 50.9 EPS (S cts) 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.7 IOI Corp Bhd (%) 31.4 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.7 EPS Gth (%) 9 41 22 18 Free Float (%) 17.7 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 9 41 22 18 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 391 Diluted EPS (S cts) 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.7 Price Relative

Net DPS (S cts) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 BV Per Share (S cts) 35 41 49 58 PE (X) 19.6 13.9 11.4 9.7 PE Pre Ex. (X) 19.6 13.9 11.4 9.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 11.4 9.3 8.5 7.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 14.4 10.0 8.0 6.6 Net Div Yield (%) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 P/Book Value (X) 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 ROAE (%) 16.3 19.5 20.0 19.8 Earnings Rev (%): 0.4 11.6 (0.3) Consensus EPS (S cts): 7.4 8.6 10.5 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 4,063 5,717 6,054 6,498 Net Fixed Assets 2,093 2,466 2,769 3,009 Cost of Goods Sold (2,463) (3,416) (3,214) (3,355) Invts in Associates & JVs 108 108 108 108 Gross Profit 1,600 2,301 2,840 3,143 Other LT Assets 8,341 9,251 9,981 10,496 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (256) (364) (397) (425) Cash & ST Invts 482 352 852 1,911 Operating Profit 1,344 1,937 2,443 2,717 Inventory 379 482 453 473 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (25) (14) (67) 28 Debtors 102 81 85 92 Associates & JV Inc (16) (8) 4 4 Other Current Assets 340 340 340 340 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (34) (53) (97) (59) Total Assets 11,844 13,080 14,588 16,429 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,268 1,862 2,283 2,690 ST Debt 559 168 12 12 Tax (286) (451) (565) (658) Other Current Liab 924 1,179 1,155 1,217 Minority Interest (126) (206) (251) (297) LT Debt 3,585 3,643 3,762 3,693 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 635 667 700 735 Net Profit 855 1,205 1,467 1,735 Shareholder’s Equity 5,630 6,706 7,993 9,508 Net Profit before Except. 855 1,205 1,467 1,735 Minority Interests 511 717 968 1,264 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 838 1,205 1,467 1,735 Total Cap. & Liab. 11,844 13,080 14,588 16,429 EBITDA 1,451 2,104 2,596 2,990 Sales Gth (%) 15.2 40.7 5.9 7.3 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (104) (276) (276) (312) EBITDA Gth (%) 5.9 45.0 23.4 15.2 Net Cash/(Debt) (3,662) (3,459) (2,921) (1,794) Opg Profit Gth (%) 12.7 44.2 26.1 11.2 Net Profit Gth (%) 8.6 40.9 21.8 18.2 Effective Tax Rate (%) 22.6 24.2 24.8 24.5 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 1,268 1,862 2,283 2,690 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 148 189 216 241 CPO 3,747 5,121 5,451 5,852 Tax Paid (286) (451) (565) (658) PK 316 596 603 647 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 113 172 (1) 37 Other Operating CF 7 31 33 35 Net Operating CF 1,467 1,804 1,966 2,343 Total 4,063 5,717 6,054 6,498 Capital Exp.(net) (2,400) (1,580) (1,248) (997) Other Invts.(net) (144) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (14) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (638) 0 0 0 Net Investing CF (3,196) (1,580) (1,248) (997) Div Paid (166) (128) (181) (220) Chg in Gross Debt 1,463 (333) (38) (68) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (22) 107 0 0 Net Financing CF 1,275 (354) (218) (288) Source: Company, DBS Bank

89

109

129

149

169

189

209

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14

Relative IndexS$

Bumitama Agri (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


BW Plantation

BW Plantation (BUY; Rp370; BWPT IJ; Price Target : Rp550 (Prev : Rp545)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 1,144 2,270 4,591 5,930 Issued Capital (m shrs) 31,525 EBITDA 495 618 1,995 2,597 Pre-tax Profit 255 325 1,177 1,712 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 11,664 / 936 Net Profit 182 212 884 1,285 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 182 212 884 1,285 BW Investindo (%) 34.9 EPS (Rp) 6 7 28 41 Matacuna (%) 12.4 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 6 7 28 41 EPS Gth (%) (37) 16 317 45 Free Float (%) 95.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (37) 16 317 45 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 66,712 Diluted EPS (Rp) 6 7 28 41 Price Relative

Net DPS (Rp) 1 1 4 6 BV Per Share (Rp) 77 389 419 460 PE (X) 63.7 54.9 13.2 9.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 63.7 54.9 13.2 9.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 30.9 22.1 7.8 6.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 30.5 27.1 8.2 6.2 Net Div Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 P/Book Value (X) 4.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 ROAE (%) 9.4 3.2 7.7 10.3 Earnings Rev (%): (11.8) 13.3 0.4 Consensus EPS (Rp): 5 6 74 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 1,144 2,270 4,591 5,930 Net Fixed Assets 799 2,812 3,006 3,188 Cost of Goods Sold (603) (1,524) (2,447) (3,245) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 541 746 2,144 2,685 Other LT Assets 5,082 13,971 14,430 14,870 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (216) (331) (656) (754) Cash & ST Invts 68 743 902 685 Operating Profit 326 415 1,488 1,931 Inventory 159 616 612 811 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 12 (7) (24) 49 Debtors 25 72 88 114 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 66 712 755 991 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (83) (83) (287) (268) Total Assets 6,200 18,926 19,793 20,659 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 255 325 1,177 1,712 ST Debt 322 1,385 1,578 940 Tax (73) (81) (293) (427) Other Current Liab 393 1,049 1,175 1,533 Minority Interest 0 (32) 0 0 LT Debt 3,245 4,408 4,091 4,065 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 56 1,081 1,094 1,107 Net Profit 182 212 884 1,285 Shareholder’s Equity 2,185 11,002 11,855 13,014 Net Profit before Except. 182 212 884 1,285 Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 182 212 884 1,285 Total Cap. & Liab. 6,200 18,926 19,793 20,659 EBITDA 495 618 1,995 2,597 Sales Gth (%) 21.2 98.3 102.3 29.2 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (142) 350 280 384 EBITDA Gth (%) (4.6) 24.8 223.1 30.2 Net Cash/(Debt) (3,499) (5,050) (4,767) (4,321) Opg Profit Gth (%) (22.0) 27.5 258.6 29.8 Net Profit Gth (%) (30.7) 16.8 316.6 45.3 Effective Tax Rate (%) 28.7 25.0 24.9 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 255 325 1,177 1,712 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 159 442 527 613 FFB 49 134 0 0 Tax Paid 0 0 0 0 CPO 1,019 1,855 4,199 5,428 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PK 77 169 391 502 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 50 (476) 70 (104) Refined oil 0 112 0 0 Other Operating CF (88) 237 (286) (420) Net Operating CF 375 529 1,489 1,802 Total 1,144 2,270 4,591 5,930 Capital Exp.(net) (1,405) (6,108) (1,182) (1,236) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (15) (4,881) 0 (1) Net Investing CF (1,421) (10,988) (1,182) (1,237) Div Paid (47) (27) (32) (126) Chg in Gross Debt 746 790 (124) (664) Capital Issues 363 9,839 0 0 Other Financing CF 1 533 8 8 Net Financing CF 1,063 11,134 (148) (782) Source: Company, DBS Bank

16

66

116

166

216

303.3

503.3

703.3

903.3

1,103.3

1,303.3

1,503.3

1,703.3


Relative IndexRp

BW Plantation (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Felda Global Ventures

Felda Global Ventures (HOLD; RM2.20; FGV MK; Price Target : RM 2.60 (Prev: RM3.30)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 12,568 16,976 16,996 17,716 Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,648 EBITDA 1,102 1,168 1,445 1,596 Pre-tax Profit 1,578 711 950 1,103 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 8,026 / 2,233 Net Profit 1,053 387 593 711 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,011 387 593 711 Federal Land Development (%) 33.7 EPS (sen) 28.9 10.6 16.3 19.5 Lembaga Tabung Haji (%) 7.8 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 27.7 10.6 16.3 19.5 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (%) 6.1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 31 (62) 53 20 Free Float (%) 35.9 Diluted EPS (sen) 28.9 10.6 16.3 19.5 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 3,623 Net DPS (sen) 16.0 5.3 8.1 9.7 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 180.1 170.4 178.6 188.3 PE (X) 7.6 20.7 13.5 11.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 7.9 20.7 13.5 11.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.8 21.5 7.3 7.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 8.6 9.3 7.4 6.7 Net Div Yield (%) 7.3 2.4 3.7 4.4 P/Book Value (X) 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 0.0 CASH ROAE (%) 16.6 6.1 9.3 10.6 Earnings Rev (%): 0.2 0.2 (1.6) Consensus EPS (sen): 11.9 15.5 16.8 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)


Turnover 12,568 16,976 16,996 17,716 Net Fixed Assets 5,683 5,829 5,968 6,100 Cost of Goods Sold (11,690) (14,918) (14,710) (15,243) Invts in Associates & JVs 919 842 772 710 Gross Profit 878 2,058 2,286 2,473 Other LT Assets 5,232 4,646 4,646 4,646 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc 600 (1,203) (1,171) (1,221) Cash & ST Invts 5,029 3,816 4,074 4,246 Operating Profit 1,478 854 1,115 1,252 Inventory 1,740 1,492 1,471 1,524 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,352 1,414 1,416 1,476 Associates & JV Inc (2) (77) (69) (62) Other Current Assets 768 1,189 1,192 1,235 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 61 (66) (96) (87) Total Assets 20,722 19,228 19,540 19,938 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 42 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,578 711 950 1,103 ST Debt 1,638 1,638 1,638 1,638 Tax (399) (208) (246) (282) Other Current Liab 2,506 1,489 1,504 1,555 Minority Interest (126) (116) (110) (110) LT Debt 2,486 2,486 2,486 2,486 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 5,146 4,908 4,797 4,679 Net Profit 1,053 387 593 711 Shareholder’s Equity 6,571 6,217 6,514 6,869 Net Profit before Except. 1,011 387 593 711 Minority Interests 2,375 2,491 2,601 2,711 EBITDA 1,102 1,168 1,445 1,596 Total Cap. & Liab. 20,722 19,228 19,540 19,938 Sales Gth (%) (2.5) 35.1 0.1 4.2 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,354 2,606 2,575 2,681 EBITDA Gth (%) (13.6) 6.0 23.7 10.4 Net Cash/(Debt) 905 (307) (50) 123 Opg Profit Gth (%) 54.4 (42.2) 30.5 12.3 Net Profit Gth (%) 36.1 (63.2) 53.3 19.8 Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.3 29.3 25.9 25.6 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 1,607 711 950 1,103 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 99 114 130 144 Plantations 10,394 10,238 10,115 10,608 Tax Paid (367) (176) (213) (250) Sugar 1,327 2,533 2,631 2,664 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 2 77 69 62 Downstream 847 820 827 833 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (796) (520) 3 (110) Others 0 3,384 3,423 3,611 Other Operating CF 200 167 167 167 Net Operating CF 745 374 1,106 1,117 Total 12,568 16,976 16,996 17,716 Capital Exp.(net) (208) (261) (269) (275) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 1,799 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (2,794) 596 (2) (2) Net Investing CF (1,203) 336 (271) (278) Div Paid (1,113) (362) (297) (355) Chg in Gross Debt 1,050 0 0 0 Capital Issues (40) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (99) (1,560) (281) (312) Net Financing CF (202) (1,922) (577) (667) Net Cashflow (659) (1,212) 258 172

Source: Company, AllianceDBS; DBS Bank

3 8

5 8

7 8

9 8

1 1 8

1 3 8

1 5 8

1 7 8

1 9 8

2 1 8

1 . 9

2 . 4

2 . 9

3 . 4

3 . 9

4 . 4

4 . 9

5 . 4

5 . 9

J u n - 1 2 D e c - 1 2 J u n - 1 3 D e c - 1 3 J u n - 1 4 D e c - 1 4

R e l a t i v e I n d e xR M

F e l d a G l o b a l V e n t u r e s ( L H S ) R e l a t i v e K L C I I N D E X ( R H S )


First Resources

First Resources (HOLD; S$1.94; FR SP; Price Target : S$ 2.00 (Prev: S$ 2.09)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 626 652 617 752 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,584 EBITDA 362 295 280 320 Pre-tax Profit 314 245 227 270 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 3.07 / 2,284 Net Profit 238 173 167 199 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 238 173 167 199 Eight Capital Inc (%) 63.2 EPS (S cts) 20.2 14.7 14.2 16.9 King Fortune International Inc (%) 5.6 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 20.2 14.7 14.2 16.9 EPS Gth (%) 0 (27) (4) 19 Free Float (%) 31.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 0 (27) (4) 19 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,935 Diluted EPS (S cts) 20.2 14.7 14.2 16.9 Price Relative

Net DPS (S cts) 4.3 4.6 3.8 3.9 BV Per Share (S cts) 84 94 105 118 PE (X) 9.6 13.2 13.7 11.5 PE Pre Ex. (X) 9.6 13.2 13.7 11.5 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.3 17.7 10.9 10.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 7.0 8.4 8.4 6.9 Net Div Yield (%) 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 P/Book Value (X) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.1 0.0 CASH ROAE (%) 22.7 16.5 14.2 15.2 Earnings Rev (%): 1.7 (14.6) (18.2) Consensus EPS (S cts): 14.4 16.8 20.2 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 626 652 617 752 Net Fixed Assets 303 282 264 253 Cost of Goods Sold (245) (346) (340) (403) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 382 306 277 349 Other LT Assets 1,067 1,040 1,051 1,062 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (41) (58) (44) (64) Cash & ST Invts 272 474 609 753 Operating Profit 341 248 233 285 Inventory 59 83 81 96 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (9) 12 10 (3) Debtors 42 40 38 46 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 37 71 69 82 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (15) (16) (11) Total Assets 1,780 1,989 2,112 2,294 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 314 245 227 270 ST Debt 3 0 0 324 Tax (67) (66) (54) (65) Other Current Liab 78 112 109 130 Minority Interest (8) (6) (6) (7) LT Debt 487 613 613 289 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 173 99 98 99 Net Profit 238 173 167 199 Shareholder’s Equity 993 1,112 1,234 1,387 Net Profit before Except. 238 173 167 199 Minority Interests 47 52 58 64 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 217 173 167 199 Total Cap. & Liab. 1,780 1,989 2,112 2,294 EBITDA 362 295 280 320 Sales Gth (%) 3.8 4.1 (5.3) 21.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 60 82 79 95 EBITDA Gth (%) (2.6) (18.4) (5.3) 14.5 Net Cash/(Debt) (218) (139) (4) 140 Opg Profit Gth (%) 2.2 (27.3) (5.7) 22.1 Net Profit Gth (%) 0.5 (27.3) (3.7) 19.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 21.5 27.0 24.0 24.0 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 314 245 227 270 Revenues (US$m) Dep. & Amort. 30 35 36 38 CPO 538 432 435 507 Tax Paid (67) (66) (54) (65) Palm kernel 45 65 61 75 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Olein, RBDPO, biodesel 186 377 357 435 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 5 (21) 2 (15) PKO 25 36 39 37 Other Operating CF (59) (64) (2) 0 Others (168) (257) (274) (302) Net Operating CF 223 129 209 229 Total 626 652 617 752 Capital Exp.(net) (190) 2 (29) (37) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (12) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF 203 1 0 (2) Net Investing CF 1 3 (30) (39) Div Paid (51) (54) (45) (46) Chg in Gross Debt (48) 123 0 0 Capital Issues (302) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 45 1 1 1 Net Financing CF (356) 69 (44) (46)

Surce: Company, DBS Bank

84

104

124

144

164

184

204

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7


Relative IndexS$

First Resources (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


Genting Plantations

Genting Plantations (BUY; RM10.48; GENP MK; Price Target : RM 12.75 (Prev: RM12.35)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 1,384 1,453 1,624 1,858 Issued Capital (m shrs) 770 EBITDA 314 419 516 573 Pre-tax Profit 300 399 497 548 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 8,073 / 2,246 Net Profit 228 301 383 422 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 228 301 383 422 Genting Berhad (%) 52.8 EPS (sen) 30.0 39.7 50.5 55.6 Employees Provident Fund (%) 15.4 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 30.0 39.7 50.5 55.6 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (%) 5.5 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (30) 32 27 10 Free Float (%) 26.2 Diluted EPS (sen) 30.0 39.7 50.5 55.6 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 206 Net DPS (sen) 6.6 8.7 11.1 12.2 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 451.5 503.7 544.7 588.9 PE (X) 34.9 26.4 20.8 18.8 PE Pre Ex. (X) 34.9 26.4 20.8 18.8 P/Cash Flow (X) 23.9 24.5 19.8 17.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 25.7 19.0 15.5 13.9 Net Div Yield (%) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 P/Book Value (X) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 6.7 8.3 9.6 9.8 Earnings Rev (%): (7.3) 14.2 1.1 Consensus EPS (sen): 42.7 52.0 61.5 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)


Turnover 1,384 1,453 1,624 1,858 Net Fixed Assets 1,110 1,282 1,480 1,695 Cost of Goods Sold (858) (909) (949) (1,112) Invts in Associates & JVs 62 80 103 128 Gross Profit 526 543 675 746 Other LT Assets 2,284 2,389 2,494 2,589 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (267) (182) (223) (244) Cash & ST Invts 931 1,017 979 974 Operating Profit 260 361 452 502 Inventory 89 114 119 138 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 234 206 229 261 Associates & JV Inc 18 18 23 25 Other Current Assets 144 144 145 145 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 23 20 22 21 Total Assets 4,854 5,232 5,549 5,932 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 300 399 497 548 ST Debt 7 7 7 7 Tax (80) (106) (124) (137) Other Current Liab 323 312 328 386 Minority Interest 8 8 10 11 LT Debt 861 861 861 861 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 60 60 60 60 Net Profit 228 301 383 422 Shareholder’s Equity 3,426 3,822 4,134 4,469 Net Profit before Except. 228 301 383 422 Minority Interests 178 170 160 149 EBITDA 314 419 516 573 Total Cap. & Liab. 4,854 5,232 5,549 5,932 Sales Gth (%) 12.2 4.9 11.8 14.4 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 144 152 165 159 EBITDA Gth (%) (22.7) 33.3 23.1 11.2 Net Cash/(Debt) 63 149 111 106 Opg Profit Gth (%) (28.5) 39.0 25.3 11.1 Net Profit Gth (%) (27.5) 32.1 27.2 10.3 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.8 26.5 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 300 399 497 548 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 55 58 63 71 Plantation 1,080 1,209 1,361 1,583 Tax Paid (80) (106) (124) (137) Property 271 244 263 276 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (18) (18) (23) (25) Others 34 0 0 0 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 18 (5) (13) 5 Other Operating CF 58 (3) 0 1 Net Operating CF 332 325 401 463 Total 1,384 1,453 1,624 1,858 Capital Exp.(net) (393) (334) (367) (382) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Plantation 298 407 497 549 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 76 81 88 92 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Others (110) (116) (122) (128) Other Investing CF (8) 0 0 0 Net Investing CF (401) (334) (367) (382) Div Paid (60) (55) (72) (87) Total 265 372 464 514 Chg in Gross Debt 159 0 0 0 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Plantation 27.6 33.7 36.5 34.7 Other Financing CF (151) 150 0 0 Property 28.3 33.3 33.4 33.5 Net Financing CF (52) 95 (72) (87) Net Cashflow (120) 86 (38) (5) Total 19.1 25.6 28.5 27.6 Source: Company, DBS Bank

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

6.1

7.1

8.1

9.1

10.1

11.1

12.1


Relative IndexRM

Genting Plantations (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


Golden Agri Resources

Golden Agri Resources (NOT RATED; S$0.43; GGR SP; Price Target : S$ 0.46) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 6,585 6,256 5,726 6,211 Issued Capital (m shrs) 12,838 EBITDA 616 510 669 879 Pre-tax Profit 430 271 394 583 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 5,520 / 4,103 Net Profit 311 201 291 431 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 284 193 291 431 Massingham Intl Ltd (%) 36.5 EPS (S cts) 3.5 2.2 3.2 4.8 Golden Moment Ltd (%) 7.2 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 3.2 2.1 3.2 4.8 Silchester Intl Investor (%) 6.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (28) (32) 51 48 Free Float (%) 43.1 Diluted EPS (S cts) 3.5 2.2 3.2 4.8 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 39,166 Net DPS (S cts) 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 Price Relative

BV Per Share (S cts) 96.7 98.3 100.7 104.4 PE (X) 12.5 19.3 13.3 9.0 PE Pre Ex. (X) 13.6 20.1 13.3 9.0 P/Cash Flow (X) 329.4 6.4 7.1 6.8 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.1 12.3 9.3 7.0 Net Div Yield (%) 3.1 1.5 1.7 2.6 P/Book Value (X) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 3.6 2.3 3.2 4.7 Earnings Rev (%): 0.3 (6.5) (6.4) Consensus EPS (S cts): 2.7 3.3 4.2 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m)


Turnover 6,585 6,256 5,726 6,211 Net Fixed Assets 2,351 2,567 2,750 2,895 Cost of Goods Sold (5,222) (4,934) (4,475) (4,609) Invts in Associates & JVs 16 16 16 16 Gross Profit 1,363 1,322 1,251 1,602 Other LT Assets 9,243 9,469 9,514 9,561 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (847) (966) (762) (928) Cash & ST Invts 327 349 393 536 Operating Profit 516 355 489 674 Inventory 772 729 662 681 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (33) 0 0 0 Debtors 1,180 986 903 979 Associates & JV Inc (1) 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 259 259 259 259 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (89) (92) (95) (91) Total Assets 14,148 14,376 14,497 14,927 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 37 8 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 430 271 394 583 ST Debt 1,060 760 763 1,209 Tax (114) (68) (98) (146) Other Current Liab 824 840 762 787 Minority Interest (5) (3) (4) (6) LT Debt 1,521 1,883 1,848 1,467 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 1,940 1,942 1,945 1,948 Net Profit 311 201 291 431 Shareholder’s Equity 8,721 8,865 9,088 9,420 Net Profit before Except. 284 193 291 431 Minority Interests 83 86 90 96 EBITDA 616 510 669 879 Total Cap. & Liab. 14,148 14,376 14,497 14,927 Sales Gth (%) 8.8 (5.0) (8.5) 8.5 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,387 1,135 1,062 1,133 EBITDA Gth (%) (19.9) (17.2) 31.1 31.5 Net Cash/(Debt) (2,253) (2,295) (2,219) (2,141) Opg Profit Gth (%) (21.9) (31.1) 37.6 37.9 Net Profit Gth (%) (24.0) (35.6) 45.3 48.0 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 430 271 394 583 Revenues (US$ m) Dep. & Amort. 134 155 180 205 CPO 2,520 2,205 1,974 2,107 Tax Paid (114) (68) (98) (146) Palm kernel 22 17 26 25 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 1 0 0 0 RBD Olein 1,519 1,610 1,516 1,715 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (393) 251 74 (71) Soybean products 1,253 1,044 861 925 Other Operating CF (46) 0 0 0 Others 1,272 1,379 1,348 1,438 Net Operating CF 12 610 549 572 Total 6,585 6,256 5,726 6,211 Capital Exp.(net) (676) (420) (408) (395) Other Invts.(net) (144) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (4) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (2) 1 (1) (1) Net Investing CF (826) (419) (408) (396) Div Paid (122) (56) (68) (100) Chg in Gross Debt 726 63 (32) 65 Capital Issues 4 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (27) (175) 3 3 Net Financing CF 582 (169) (97) (32) Net Cashflow (232) 21 44 143

Source: Company, DBS Bank

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9


Relative IndexS$

Golden Agri Resources (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


IJM Plantations

IJM Plantations (HOLD; RM3.65; IJMP MK; Price Target : RM 3.80 (Prev: RM 3.60)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Mar (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 647 796 804 904 Issued Capital (m shrs) 881 EBITDA 224 277 277 313 Pre-tax Profit 109 193 191 224 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 3,214 / 894 Net Profit 89 148 147 172 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 109 148 147 172 IJM Corporation Bhd (%) 55.2 EPS (sen) 11.1 18.5 18.3 21.4 Employees Provident Fund (%) 12.1 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 13.7 18.5 18.3 21.4 Desa Plus Sdn Bhd (%) 4.2 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (8) 35 (1) 17 Free Float (%) 28.5 Diluted EPS (sen) 11.1 18.5 18.3 21.4 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 236 Net DPS (sen) 5.5 9.2 9.2 10.7 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 172.7 185.5 194.6 206.8 PE (X) 33.0 19.8 19.9 17.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 26.7 19.8 19.9 17.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 23.4 38.8 14.7 14.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 14.3 12.0 12.1 10.6 Net Div Yield (%) 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 P/Book Value (X) 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 ROAE (%) 6.4 10.3 9.6 10.7 Earnings Rev (%): 6.7 23.9 10.0 Consensus EPS (sen): 15.6 18.5 21.8 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)

FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 647 796 804 904 Net Fixed Assets 822 884 940 993 Cost of Goods Sold (425) (508) (503) (557) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 222 288 301 348 Other LT Assets 880 1,046 1,065 1,080 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (48) (65) (82) (97) Cash & ST Invts 344 145 108 94 Operating Profit 174 223 219 250 Inventory 80 117 116 128 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 93 101 102 114 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 7 7 7 6 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (44) (31) (27) (26) Total Assets 2,226 2,299 2,337 2,415 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (21) 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 109 193 191 224 ST Debt 138 100 100 100 Tax (26) (48) (48) (56) Other Current Liab 69 114 113 125 Minority Interest 6 4 3 3 LT Debt 473 449 427 405 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 163 155 148 140 Net Profit 89 148 147 172 Shareholder’s Equity 1,385 1,487 1,560 1,658 Net Profit before Except. 109 148 147 172 Minority Interests (3) (6) (10) (13) EBITDA 224 277 277 313 Total Cap. & Liab. 2,226 2,299 2,337 2,415 Sales Gth (%) 33.0 23.1 1.0 12.5 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 110 111 111 124 EBITDA Gth (%) 11.4 23.6 0.0 13.0 Net Cash/(Debt) (267) (405) (419) (412) Opg Profit Gth (%) 9.1 28.3 (2.0) 14.5 Net Profit Gth (%) (25.9) 67.1 (0.9) 16.9 Effective Tax Rate (%) 23.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown

FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Pre-Tax Profit 109 193 191 224 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 50 54 58 62 CPO 547 673 693 792 Tax Paid (26) (48) (48) (56) CPKO 67 101 91 93 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PK cake 9 15 13 13 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (7) (125) (2) (29) Others 24 7 7 7 Other Operating CF 0 2 0 1 Net Operating CF 125 75 199 202 Total 647 796 804 904 Capital Exp.(net) (197) (162) (135) (117) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF 1 3 3 3 Net Investing CF (196) (159) (132) (114) Div Paid (56) (44) (74) (73) Chg in Gross Debt 98 (62) (22) (21) Capital Issues (41) (1) 0 0 Other Financing CF (10) (8) (8) (7) Net Financing CF (9) (116) (104) (102) Net Cashflow (79) (199) (37) (14)

Source: Company, AllianceDBS, DBS Bank

7 6

9 6

1 1 6

1 3 6

1 5 6

1 7 6

1 9 6

2 1 6

2 .2

2 .7

3 .2

3 .7

4 .2

J a n - 1 1 J a n - 1 2 J a n - 1 3 J a n - 1 4 J a n - 1 5

R e la t iv e In d e xR M

I J M P l a n t a t i o n s ( L H S ) R e l a t i v e K L C I IN D E X ( R H S )


Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri Resources (HOLD; S$0.73; IFAR SP; Price Target : S$0.79 (Prev: S$0.98)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 13,280 14,958 15,861 17,729 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,417 EBITDA 2,475 3,295 3,648 4,708 Pre-tax Profit 1,338 2,059 2,349 3,360 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 1.03 / 769 Net Profit 550 849 969 1,386 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 550 849 969 1,386 Indofood Singapore (%) 70.4 EPS (S cts) 4.2 6.4 7.3 10.5 Free Float (%) 29.6 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 4.2 6.4 7.3 10.5 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,057 EPS Gth (%) (49) 54 14 43 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (49) 54 14 43 Diluted EPS (S cts) 4.2 6.4 7.3 10.5 Price Relative

Net DPS (S cts) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 BV Per Share (S cts) 106.1 112.6 119.9 130.4 PE (X) 17.5 11.3 9.9 7.0 PE Pre Ex. (X) 17.5 11.3 9.9 7.0 P/Cash Flow (X) 6.0 4.8 3.8 2.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 9.5 7.5 6.9 5.5 Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/Book Value (X) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 4.0 5.9 6.3 8.4 Earnings Rev (%): (28.2) (15.9) (21.3) Consensus EPS (S cts): 6.8 7.4 9.4 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 13,280 14,958 15,861 17,729 Net Fixed Assets 9,781 10,524 11,205 11,821 Cost of Goods Sold (10,076) (10,920) (11,289) (12,029) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 3,204 4,038 4,572 5,699 Other LT Assets 20,986 21,830 22,676 23,536 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,506) (1,644) (1,913) (2,027) Cash & ST Invts 3,803 1,635 646 513 Operating Profit 1,698 2,394 2,659 3,672 Inventory 1,568 1,855 1,898 2,003 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,140 1,217 1,277 1,413 Associates & JV Inc (6) 117 108 76 Other Current Assets 427 398 411 441 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (354) (453) (419) (388) Total Assets 37,705 37,458 38,114 39,728 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,338 2,059 2,349 3,360 ST Debt 4,490 3,038 3,081 3,062 Tax (380) (515) (587) (840) Other Current Liab 2,015 2,167 2,263 2,435 Minority Interest (408) (695) (793) (1,134) LT Debt 4,305 4,017 2,966 2,089 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 4,062 3,859 3,666 3,483 Net Profit 550 849 969 1,386 Shareholder’s Equity 14,007 14,856 15,825 17,211 Net Profit before Except. 550 849 969 1,386 Minority Interests 8,826 9,521 10,313 11,447 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 503 849 969 1,386 Total Cap. & Liab. 37,705 37,458 38,114 39,728 EBITDA 2,475 3,295 3,648 4,708 Sales Gth (%) (4.1) 12.6 6.0 11.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,121 1,302 1,324 1,422 EBITDA Gth (%) (25.3) 33.1 10.7 29.0 Net Cash/(Debt) (4,992) (5,420) (5,400) (4,639) Opg Profit Gth (%) (38.6) 41.0 11.0 38.1 Net Profit Gth (%) (49.1) 54.3 14.1 43.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 28.4 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 1,338 2,059 2,349 3,360 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 783 783 881 960 Plantations 4,183 5,082 5,351 5,791 Tax Paid (380) (515) (587) (840) Cooking Oil & Fats 8,235 8,763 9,282 10,626 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Commodities and 142 212 201 188 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 170 (181) (21) (98) Others 720 900 1,027 1,124 Other Operating CF (252) (122) (117) (113) Net Operating CF 1,598 2,024 2,504 3,268 Total 13,280 14,958 15,861 17,729 Capital Exp.(net) (3,349) (2,189) (2,235) (2,293) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (1,383) (158) (150) (118) Net Investing CF (4,732) (2,346) (2,384) (2,411) Div Paid 0 0 0 0 Chg in Gross Debt 2,015 (1,740) (1,008) (895) Capital Issues (165) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 5 (106) (100) (95) Net Financing CF 1,855 (1,846) (1,108) (991) Source: Company, DBS Bank

22

42

62

82

102

122

142

162

182

202

222

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6


Relative IndexS$

Indofood Agri Resources (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


IOI Corporation

IOI Corporation (FULLY VALUED; RM4.74; IOI MK; Price Target : RM4.10 (Prev: RM 3.95)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Jun (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 11,911 14,294 14,642 14,757 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,362 EBITDA 2,501 1,468 2,397 2,495 Pre-tax Profit 3,924 973 1,917 2,007 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 30,154 / 8,390 Net Profit 3,373 528 1,416 1,491 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,486 528 1,416 1,491 Vertical Capacity Sdn Bhd (%) 46.2 EPS (sen) 52.8 8.3 22.1 23.3 Employees Provident Fund (%) 9.2 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 23.2 8.3 22.1 23.3 First State Investments (%) 6.7 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (31) (64) 168 5 Free Float (%) 44.7 Diluted EPS (sen) 51.9 8.1 21.8 23.0 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 4,600 Net DPS (sen) 21.5 4.0 10.8 11.4 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 93.8 86.5 101.3 113.5 PE (X) 9.0 57.4 21.4 20.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.4 57.4 21.4 20.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 9.5 119.3 20.2 19.3 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.6 23.8 14.3 13.5 Net Div Yield (%) 4.5 0.8 2.3 2.4 P/Book Value (X) 5.1 5.5 4.7 4.2 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 ROAE (%) 34.3 9.1 23.4 21.6 Earnings Rev (%): (58.0) (1.8) 1.0 Consensus EPS (sen): 20.3 22.3 22.9 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)

FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 11,911 14,294 14,642 14,757 Net Fixed Assets 6,410 6,348 6,337 6,312 Cost of Goods Sold (9,227) (12,187) (11,829) (11,877) Invts in Associates & JVs 920 1,080 1,264 1,468 Gross Profit 2,684 2,106 2,813 2,880 Other LT Assets 616 616 617 618 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (906) (1,044) (863) (872) Cash & ST Invts 3,988 2,474 3,302 3,909 Operating Profit 2,117 1,062 1,950 2,008 Inventory 2,155 2,212 2,147 2,156 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,102 1,635 1,675 1,688 Associates & JV Inc 160 159 182 202 Other Current Assets 142 144 145 146 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (240) (247) (215) (204) Total Assets 15,332 14,509 15,487 16,296 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 1,887 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 3,924 973 1,917 2,007 ST Debt 2,454 489 489 489 Tax (534) (434) (488) (502) Other Current Liab 1,043 1,260 1,226 1,230 Minority Interest (17) (12) (13) (14) LT Debt 5,069 6,441 6,477 6,477 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 533 543 554 565 Net Profit 3,373 528 1,416 1,491 Shareholder’s Equity 6,037 5,568 6,520 7,301 Net Profit before Except. 1,486 528 1,416 1,491 Minority Interests 196 208 221 235 EBITDA 2,501 1,468 2,397 2,495 Total Cap. & Liab. 15,332 14,509 15,487 16,296 Sales Gth (%) (2.4) 20.0 2.4 0.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 2,356 2,731 2,741 2,760 EBITDA Gth (%) (16.3) (41.3) 63.3 4.1 Net Cash/(Debt) (3,536) (4,456) (3,664) (3,057) Opg Profit Gth (%) (16.8) (49.8) 83.6 3.0 Net Profit Gth (%) 55.6 (84.4) 168.2 5.3 Effective Tax Rate (%) 13.6 44.6 25.5 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 3,924 973 1,917 2,007 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 224 248 265 285 Plantation 260 341 350 339 Tax Paid (534) (434) (488) (502) Resource-based 11,585 13,886 14,224 14,349 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (160) (159) (182) (202) Others 65 67 68 69 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (248) (373) (9) (17) Other Operating CF (10) (1) (1) (1) Total 11,911 14,294 14,642 14,757 Net Operating CF 3,196 254 1,501 1,569 Capital Exp.(net) (1,335) (262) (254) (260) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) (1) 0 0 0 Plantation 1,086 1,069 1,084 1,115 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Resource-based 760 515 513 505 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Others 271 (522) 353 388 Other Investing CF (36) (2) (2) (2) Net Investing CF (1,372) (264) (256) (263) Total 2,117 1,062 1,950 2,008 Div Paid (8,615) (995) (463) (711) Chg in Gross Debt 199 (593) 35 0 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues (2,362) (2) 0 0 Plantation 49.3 49.1 49.5 49.2 Other Financing CF 9,971 86 11 11 Resource-based 6.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 Net Financing CF (806) (1,504) (417) (700) Net Cashflow 1,018 (1,514) 828 607 Total 17.8 7.4 13.3 13.6


63

83

103

123

143

163

183

203

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.7


Relative IndexRM

IOI Corporation (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


KL Kepong

KL Kepong (FULLY VALUED; RM22.90; KLK MK; Price Target : RM 19.50 (Prev: RM20.45)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Sep (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 11,130 12,476 13,597 14,478 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,065 EBITDA 1,742 1,610 1,934 2,122 Pre-tax Profit 1,318 1,148 1,442 1,599 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 24,388 / 6,786 Net Profit 992 864 1,082 1,197 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 986 864 1,082 1,197 Batu Kawan Bhd (%) 46.6 EPS (sen) 92.9 80.9 101.3 112.1 Employees Provident Fund (%) 14.0 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 92.3 80.9 101.3 112.1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 11 (12) 25 11 Free Float (%) 39.4 Diluted EPS (sen) 92.9 80.9 101.3 112.1 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 383 Net DPS (sen) 55.7 48.5 60.8 67.3 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 726.2 753.5 802.6 852.0 PE (X) 24.7 28.3 22.6 20.4 PE Pre Ex. (X) 24.8 28.3 22.6 20.4 P/Cash Flow (X) 33.1 19.2 18.1 15.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.2 16.5 13.8 12.6 Net Div Yield (%) 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 P/Book Value (X) 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 13.0 10.9 13.0 13.5 Earnings Rev (%): (5.2) 2.3 4.1 Consensus EPS (sen): 103.6 115.2 121.5 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)

FY Sep 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Sep 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 11,130 12,476 13,597 14,478 Net Fixed Assets 6,301 6,770 7,235 7,676 Cost of Goods Sold (8,852) (10,279) (11,012) (11,658) Invts in Associates & JVs 173 179 185 191 Gross Profit 2,278 2,197 2,585 2,821 Other LT Assets 1,903 1,859 1,816 1,774 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (879) (963) (1,058) (1,137) Cash & ST Invts 1,296 1,170 1,110 1,117 Operating Profit 1,399 1,233 1,527 1,684 Inventory 1,441 1,629 1,745 1,848 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (42) (31) (29) (27) Debtors 1,592 1,588 1,730 1,842 Associates & JV Inc 6 6 6 6 Other Current Assets 181 181 181 181 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (51) (60) (63) (63) Total Assets 12,888 13,376 14,003 14,629 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 6 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,318 1,148 1,442 1,599 ST Debt 1,094 1,067 1,040 1,014 Tax (285) (248) (315) (353) Other Current Liab 1,155 1,343 1,428 1,502 Minority Interest (41) (36) (45) (50) LT Debt 1,816 1,816 1,816 1,816 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 639 639 639 639 Net Profit 992 864 1,082 1,197 Shareholder’s Equity 7,752 8,043 8,568 9,095 Net Profit before Except. 986 864 1,082 1,197 Minority Interests 431 467 512 562 EBITDA 1,742 1,610 1,934 2,122 Total Cap. & Liab. 12,888 13,376 14,003 14,629 Sales Gth (%) 21.7 12.1 9.0 6.5 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 2,060 2,055 2,229 2,369 EBITDA Gth (%) 11.6 (7.6) 20.1 9.7 Net Cash/(Debt) (1,615) (1,713) (1,746) (1,713) Opg Profit Gth (%) 10.4 (11.9) 23.9 10.3 Net Profit Gth (%) 8.1 (12.9) 25.3 10.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.1 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown

FY Sep 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Sep 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,318 1,148 1,442 1,599 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 343 377 407 438 Plantation 5,235 4,742 5,033 5,184 Tax Paid (285) (248) (315) (353) Manufacturing 5,634 7,562 8,374 9,082 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (6) (6) (6) (6) Property 117 140 162 186 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (577) 5 (174) (140) Others 144 31 29 27 Other Operating CF (54) 0 0 0 Total 11,130 12,476 13,597 14,478 Net Operating CF 739 1,275 1,354 1,539 EBIT (RM m) Capital Exp.(net) (1,000) (838) (865) (871) Plantation 1,006 1,047 1,199 1,283 Other Invts.(net) (66) 31 31 30 Manufacturing 288 76 209 272 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 46 55 63 72 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Others 55 55 56 57 Other Investing CF (95) 5 5 5 Total 1,395 1,233 1,527 1,684 Net Investing CF (1,162) (801) (829) (836) EBIT Margins (%) Div Paid (532) (572) (557) (670) Plantation 19.2 22.1 23.8 24.7 Chg in Gross Debt 575 (27) (27) (26) Manufacturing 5.1 1.0 2.5 3.0 Capital Issues (241) 0 0 0 Property 39.0 38.9 38.9 38.9 Other Financing CF 161 0 0 0 Total 12.5 9.9 11.2 11.6 Net Financing CF (38) (599) (584) (696) Net Cashflow (461) (126) (60) 7


69

89

109

129

149

169

189

209

17.6

19.6

21.6

23.6

25.6

27.6


Relative IndexRM

KL Kepong (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


London Sumatra Indonesia

London Sumatra Indonesia (HOLD; Rp1,865; LSIP IJ; Price Target : Rp1,770 (Prev: Rp1,760)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 4,134 4,801 4,991 5,292 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,823 EBITDA 953 1,166 1,351 1,358 Pre-tax Profit 997 1,234 1,426 1,459 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 12,827 / 1,034 Net Profit 769 938 1,070 1,094 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 769 938 1,070 1,094 Salim Ivomas Pratama TBK PT (%) 59.5 EPS (Rp) 113 137 157 160 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 113 137 157 160 EPS Gth (%) (31) 22 14 2 Free Float (%) 40.5 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (31) 22 14 2 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 21,840 Diluted EPS (Rp) 113 137 157 160 Price Relative

Net DPS (Rp) 66 45 55 63 BV Per Share (Rp) 969 1,058 1,160 1,257 PE (X) 16.5 13.6 11.9 11.6 PE Pre Ex. (X) 16.5 13.6 11.9 11.6 P/Cash Flow (X) 9.5 10.8 8.6 8.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.9 9.7 8.1 7.6 Net Div Yield (%) 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.4 P/Book Value (X) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 11.9 13.6 14.1 13.3 Earnings Rev (%): (10.2) 10.6 (8.5) Consensus EPS (Rp): 145 163 189 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 4,134 4,801 4,991 5,292 Net Fixed Assets 2,777 3,131 3,321 3,405 Cost of Goods Sold (2,880) (3,171) (3,272) (3,531) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 1,253 1,630 1,718 1,761 Other LT Assets 3,199 3,330 3,513 3,641 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (228) (399) (309) (349) Cash & ST Invts 1,401 1,461 1,842 2,359 Operating Profit 1,026 1,232 1,410 1,412 Inventory 374 562 574 613 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (73) (66) (59) (53) Debtors 117 98 101 106 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 106 116 120 126 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 44 68 76 101 Total Assets 7,975 8,698 9,470 10,250 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 997 1,234 1,426 1,459 ST Debt 0 0 0 0 Tax (228) (296) (357) (365) Other Current Liab 804 890 929 1,008 Minority Interest 1 0 0 0 LT Debt 0 0 0 0 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 556 591 630 666 Net Profit 769 938 1,070 1,094 Shareholder’s Equity 6,614 7,217 7,911 8,576 Net Profit before Except. 769 938 1,070 1,094 Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 769 938 1,070 1,094 Total Cap. & Liab. 7,975 8,698 9,470 10,250 EBITDA 953 1,166 1,351 1,358 Sales Gth (%) (1.8) 16.1 3.9 6.0 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (207) (113) (134) (163) EBITDA Gth (%) (26.0) 22.4 15.8 0.6 Net Cash/(Debt) 1,401 1,461 1,842 2,359 Opg Profit Gth (%) (22.5) 20.1 14.5 0.1 Net Profit Gth (%) (31.1) 21.9 14.1 2.3 Effective Tax Rate (%) 22.9 24.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 997 1,234 1,426 1,459 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 289 294 345 390 Crude palm oil 3,154 3,741 3,920 4,145 Tax Paid (228) (296) (357) (365) Palm kernel 351 548 569 592 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Rubber 340 278 249 283 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 209 (93) 21 29 Seeds 232 135 154 173 Other Operating CF 0 0 0 0 Others 56 98 98 98 Net Operating CF 1,345 1,174 1,475 1,549 Total 4,134 4,801 4,991 5,292 Capital Exp.(net) (1,090) (814) (735) (611) Other Invts.(net) (207) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (10) 35 17 9 Net Investing CF (1,306) (780) (718) (602) Div Paid (450) (309) (376) (429) Chg in Gross Debt 0 0 0 0 Capital Issues 14 (26) 0 0 Other Financing CF 0 0 0 0 Net Financing CF (436) (335) (376) (429) Source: Company, DBS Bank

32

52

72

92

112

132

152

172

192

212

900.0

1,400.0

1,900.0

2,400.0

2,900.0

3,400.0


Relative IndexRp

London Sumatra Indonesia (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Sampoerna Agro

Sampoerna Agro (HOLD; Rp1,935; SGRO IJ; Price Target : Rp1,970 (Prev: Rp2,020)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 2,561 3,145 3,647 3,786 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,890 EBITDA 445 834 929 982 Pre-tax Profit 174 509 574 601 Mkt. Cap (Rpm/US$m) 3,657 / 293 Net Profit 119 368 426 446 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 119 368 426 446 Sampoerna Agri Resources (%) 67.1 EPS (Rp) 63 195 225 236 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 63 195 225 236 EPS Gth (%) (64) 209 16 5 Free Float (%) 33.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (64) 209 16 5 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 827 Diluted EPS (Rp) 63 195 225 236 Price Relative

Net DPS (Rp) 45 16 50 58 BV Per Share (Rp) 1,410 1,589 1,764 1,941 PE (X) 30.7 9.9 8.6 8.2 PE Pre Ex. (X) 30.7 9.9 8.6 8.2 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.9 6.1 5.6 5.1 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.9 5.7 5.0 4.7 Net Div Yield (%) 2.3 0.8 2.6 3.0 P/Book Value (X) 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 ROAE (%) 4.5 13.0 13.4 12.7 Earnings Rev (%): 5.7 14.1 (10.5) Consensus EPS (Rp): 197 230 275 Income Statement (Rp m) Balance Sheet (Rp m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 2,561 3,145 3,647 3,786 Net Fixed Assets 1,401 1,444 1,481 1,503 Cost of Goods Sold (2,063) (2,273) (2,673) (2,776) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 498 871 974 1,010 Other LT Assets 2,383 2,599 2,791 3,015 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (262) (267) (305) (312) Cash & ST Invts 163 166 557 633 Operating Profit 236 604 669 698 Inventory 272 356 419 435 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 223 185 215 223 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 71 58 68 71 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (62) (94) (95) (97) Total Assets 4,513 4,809 5,530 5,879 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 174 509 574 601 ST Debt 306 289 219 219 Tax (53) (138) (143) (150) Other Current Liab 387 410 475 494 Minority Interest (1) (4) (4) (5) LT Debt 991 936 1,321 1,306 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 129 134 139 145 Net Profit 119 368 426 446 Shareholder’s Equity 2,666 3,003 3,334 3,669 Net Profit before Except. 119 368 426 446 Minority Interests 33 37 41 46 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 119 368 426 446 Total Cap. & Liab. 4,513 4,809 5,530 5,879 EBITDA 445 834 929 982 Sales Gth (%) (14.2) 22.8 16.0 3.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 178 190 227 235 EBITDA Gth (%) (34.7) 87.5 11.4 5.8 Net Cash/(Debt) (1,135) (1,059) (984) (893) Opg Profit Gth (%) (51.4) 155.5 10.8 4.3 Net Profit Gth (%) (63.8) 208.9 15.7 4.7 Effective Tax Rate (%) 30.7 27.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 174 509 574 601 Revenues (Rpm) Dep. & Amort. 208 230 260 285 CPO 2,139 2,645 3,074 3,196 Tax Paid (53) (138) (143) (150) PK 271 403 464 479 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Germinated Seeds 53 62 73 74 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 7 (5) (41) (11) Others 97 35 35 38 Other Operating CF 0 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 336 596 649 724 Total 2,561 3,145 3,647 3,786 Capital Exp.(net) (577) (534) (508) (538) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (126) 37 22 8 Net Investing CF (704) (497) (487) (530) Div Paid (85) (31) (95) (110) Chg in Gross Debt 356 (72) 316 (15) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 34 7 7 8 Net Financing CF 305 (96) 228 (117) Source: Company, DBS Bank

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

1,386.0

1,886.0

2,386.0

2,886.0

3,386.0

3,886.0


Relative IndexRp

Sampoerna Agro (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Sime Darby

Sime Darby (HOLD; RM9.56; SIME MK; Price Target : RM 9.75 (Prev: RM9.10)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Jun (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 43,908 44,066 46,685 49,126 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,211 EBITDA 5,537 5,383 6,294 6,826 Pre-tax Profit 4,228 3,709 4,535 5,056 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 59,379 / 16,522 Net Profit 3,353 2,649 3,239 3,612 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 3,089 2,649 3,239 3,612 Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera (%) 38.3 EPS (sen) 55.3 43.7 53.4 59.6 Employees Provident Fund (%) 14.1 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 50.9 43.7 53.4 59.6 Permodalan Nasional Bhd (%) 8.1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (5) (14) 22 11 Free Float (%) 39.5 Diluted EPS (sen) 55.3 43.7 53.4 59.6 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 4,338 Net DPS (sen) 27.6 21.8 26.7 29.8 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 471.4 487.5 519.0 551.9 PE (X) 17.3 21.9 17.9 16.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 18.8 21.9 17.9 16.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 20.9 12.7 13.9 13.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.8 12.2 10.4 9.6 Net Div Yield (%) 2.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 P/Book Value (X) 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 11.7 9.0 10.3 10.8 Earnings Rev (%): (0.7) 7.3 5.1 Consensus EPS (sen): 48.6 54.6 59.4 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)


Turnover 43,908 44,066 46,685 49,126 Net Fixed Assets 14,061 14,999 15,918 16,801 Cost of Goods Sold (41,163) (41,594) (43,454) (45,637) Invts in Associates & JVs 3,123 3,255 3,399 3,723 Gross Profit 2,745 2,472 3,231 3,489 Other LT Assets 8,678 9,167 9,346 9,526 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc 1,374 1,408 1,443 1,479 Cash & ST Invts 4,382 3,190 4,741 4,397 Operating Profit 4,119 3,880 4,674 4,969 Inventory 9,470 9,187 9,598 10,080 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 6,559 6,331 6,707 7,058 Associates & JV Inc 100 132 143 324 Other Current Assets 4,588 4,702 4,820 4,940 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (254) (304) (282) (237) Total Assets 50,861 50,833 54,529 56,526 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 263 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 4,228 3,709 4,535 5,056 ST Debt 3,045 1,811 2,720 3,098 Tax (708) (927) (1,134) (1,264) Other Current Liab 8,977 9,149 9,527 9,969 Minority Interest (168) (133) (162) (181) LT Debt 8,130 8,154 8,498 7,514 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 1,272 1,176 1,164 1,153 Net Profit 3,353 2,649 3,239 3,612 Shareholder’s Equity 28,589 29,562 31,476 33,468 Net Profit before Except. 2,826 2,649 3,239 3,612 Minority Interests 849 981 1,143 1,324 EBITDA 5,537 5,383 6,294 6,826 Total Cap. & Liab. 50,861 50,833 54,529 56,526 Sales Gth (%) (4.8) 0.4 5.9 5.2 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 11,640 11,071 11,598 12,110 EBITDA Gth (%) (6.0) (2.8) 16.9 8.5 Net Cash/(Debt) (6,793) (6,774) (6,477) (6,215) Opg Profit Gth (%) (8.3) (5.8) 20.5 6.3 Net Profit Gth (%) (9.4) (21.0) 22.3 11.5 Effective Tax Rate (%) 16.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 3,965 3,709 4,535 5,056 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 1,319 1,370 1,477 1,533 Plantations 10,954 10,754 11,227 11,679 Tax Paid (708) (927) (1,134) (1,264) Property 2,792 3,001 3,301 3,615 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (100) (132) (143) (324) Industrial 11,665 9,572 10,204 10,714 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1,494) 569 (527) (512) Motor 17,745 19,983 21,125 22,216 Other Operating CF (209) (39) (40) (41) Others 752 756 828 903 Net Operating CF 2,772 4,549 4,168 4,449 Total 43,908 44,066 46,685 49,126 Capital Exp.(net) (2,100) (2,427) (2,451) (2,471) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) 47 (31) (32) (32) Plantations 1,905 1,899 2,334 2,469 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 529 621 684 749 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Industrial 998 725 822 864 Other Investing CF 817 (298) (56) (57) Motor 631 526 717 759 Net Investing CF (1,236) (2,755) (2,539) (2,560) Others 57 108 118 128 Div Paid (1,477) (1,676) (1,325) (1,620) Total 4,119 3,880 4,674 4,969 Chg in Gross Debt 1,089 (1,210) 1,254 (606) EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 306 0 0 0 Plantations 17.4 17.7 20.8 21.1 Other Financing CF (1,167) (99) (7) (7) Property 18.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 Net Financing CF (1,248) (2,985) (78) (2,233) Industrial 8.6 7.6 8.1 8.1 Net Cashflow 288 (1,192) 1,551 (344) Motor 3.6 2.6 3.4 3.4 Total 9.4 8.8 10.0 10.1 Source: Company, DBS Bank

73

93

113

133

153

173

193

213

6.9

7.4

7.9

8.4

8.9

9.4

9.9

10.4

10.9


Relative IndexRM

Sime Darby (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


TSH Resources

TSH Resources (BUY; RM2.30; TSH MK; Price Target : RM 2.65 (Prev: RM: 2.55)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 1,016 1,216 1,311 1,523 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,356 EBITDA 173 266 290 334 Pre-tax Profit 154 178 192 228 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 3,118 / 868 Net Profit 141 133 143 169 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 121 133 143 169 Aik Pen Tan (%) 12.1 EPS (sen) 10.5 9.9 10.6 12.6 Tunas Lestari Sdn Bhd (%) 6.3 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 9.0 9.9 10.6 12.6 Embun Yakin Sdn Bhd (%) 5.6 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 27 10 8 18 Free Float (%) 76.1 Diluted EPS (sen) 10.5 9.9 10.6 12.6 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 415 Net DPS (sen) 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 Price Relative

BV Per Share (sen) 78.9 86.4 94.6 104.5 PE (X) 21.9 23.3 21.7 18.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 25.7 23.3 21.7 18.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 49.9 22.1 16.2 15.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 22.9 16.1 15.2 13.5 Net Div Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 P/Book Value (X) 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 ROAE (%) 14.5 11.9 11.7 12.6 Earnings Rev (%): (3.3) (3.2) (6.5) Consensus EPS (sen): 10.4 11.6 13.0 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)


Turnover 1,016 1,216 1,311 1,523 Net Fixed Assets 1,451 1,816 2,007 2,205 Cost of Goods Sold (715) (799) (825) (942) Invts in Associates & JVs 140 144 147 151 Gross Profit 301 417 486 580 Other LT Assets 261 257 252 248 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (177) (202) (250) (304) Cash & ST Invts 143 47 84 117 Operating Profit 124 215 236 277 Inventory 207 241 249 285 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 154 189 204 237 Associates & JV Inc 27 4 4 4 Other Current Assets 11 11 11 11 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (41) (48) (53) Total Assets 2,368 2,704 2,955 3,254 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 21 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 154 178 192 228 ST Debt 406 406 406 406 Tax (7) (30) (33) (41) Other Current Liab 149 163 168 191 Minority Interest (6) (15) (16) (18) LT Debt 518 724 844 969 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 134 134 134 134 Net Profit 141 133 143 169 Shareholder’s Equity 1,061 1,163 1,272 1,405 Net Profit before Except. 121 133 143 169 Minority Interests 100 115 130 148 EBITDA 173 266 290 334 Total Cap. & Liab. 2,368 2,704 2,955 3,254 Sales Gth (%) 3.3 19.6 7.9 16.1 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 224 278 296 342 EBITDA Gth (%) 2.7 53.3 8.9 15.2 Net Cash/(Debt) (781) (1,083) (1,167) (1,259) Opg Profit Gth (%) (0.5) 73.2 9.6 17.3 Net Profit Gth (%) 83.3 (6.0) 7.6 18.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 4.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 133 178 192 228 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 49 51 54 57 Oil Palm Plantation 900 1,114 1,222 1,444 Tax Paid (7) (30) (33) (41) Wood Products 51 49 46 44 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (27) (4) (4) (4) Cocoa 65 52 42 35 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 28 (55) (18) (46) Total 1,016 1,216 1,311 1,523 Other Operating CF (115) 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 62 140 191 195 EBIT (RM m) Capital Exp.(net) (278) (410) (241) (251) Oil Palm Plantation 148 220 241 282 Other Invts.(net) 85 0 0 0 Wood Products (3) (4) (3) (3) Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Cocoa 6 3 2 2 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Total 151 219 239 280 Other Investing CF 50 105 0 0 Net Investing CF (142) (305) (241) (251) EBIT Margins (%) Div Paid (21) (31) (33) (36) Oil Palm Plantation 16.5 19.7 19.7 19.5 Chg in Gross Debt (52) 205 121 125 Wood Products (6.8) (7.7) (7.4) (7.1) Capital Issues 45 0 0 0 Cocoa 9.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 Other Financing CF 92 0 0 0 Total 14.9 18.0 18.3 18.4 Net Financing CF 65 174 87 90 Net Cashflow (15) 8 37 33

Source: Company, AllianceDBS, DBS Bank

8 9

1 0 9

1 2 9

1 4 9

1 6 9

1 8 9

2 0 9

2 2 9

2 4 9

0 . 8

1 . 3

1 . 8

2 . 3

2 . 8

J a n - 1 1 J a n - 1 2 J a n - 1 3 J a n - 1 4 J a n - 1 5

R e l a t i v e I n d e xR M

T S H R e s o u r c e s ( L H S ) R e l a t i v e K L C I I N D E X ( R H S )


Wilmar International

Wilmar International (HOLD; S$3.24; WIL SP; Price Target : S$3.40 (Prev: S$3.45)) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 44,085 46,746 45,360 49,835 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,395 EBITDA 2,370 2,065 2,196 2,447 Pre-tax Profit 1,775 1,444 1,453 1,546 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 20,721 / 15,401 Net Profit 1,319 1,079 1,081 1,147 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,288 1,079 1,081 1,147 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (%) 17.3 EPS (S cts) 27.7 22.7 22.7 24.1 Khoon Hong Kuok (%) 12.0 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 27.1 22.7 22.7 24.1 Longhlin Asia Limited (%) 5.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 8 (16) 0 6 Free Float (%) 65.5 Diluted EPS (S cts) 27.7 22.7 22.7 24.1 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 4,826 Net DPS (S cts) 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 Price Relative

BV Per Share (S cts) 315.3 332.8 351.0 370.5 PE (X) 11.7 14.3 14.3 13.4 PE Pre Ex. (X) 12.0 14.3 14.3 13.4 P/Cash Flow (X) 19.4 9.7 7.3 18.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.3 14.1 13.0 11.9 Net Div Yield (%) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 P/Book Value (X) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 ROAE (%) 9.0 7.0 6.6 6.7 Earnings Rev (%): (2.7) (4.3) (0.9) Consensus EPS (S cts): 23.6 28.2 31.2 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m)


Turnover 44,085 46,746 45,360 49,835 Net Fixed Assets 9,337 9,806 10,125 10,317 Cost of Goods Sold (40,360) (43,150) (41,796) (45,861) Invts in Associates & JVs 2,035 2,087 2,140 2,196 Gross Profit 3,725 3,597 3,565 3,974 Other LT Assets 7,418 7,526 7,660 7,790 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (2,066) (2,277) (2,189) (2,418) Cash & ST Invts 13,315 10,427 9,688 9,942 Operating Profit 1,659 1,319 1,376 1,556 Inventory 7,221 7,675 7,434 8,158 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 7,066 6,988 6,781 7,450 Associates & JV Inc 104 51 53 56 Other Current Assets 240 240 240 240 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) 74 24 (66) Total Assets 46,632 44,750 44,069 46,093 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 31 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,775 1,444 1,453 1,546 ST Debt 19,392 18,702 17,241 17,994 Tax (385) (306) (307) (327) Other Current Liab 3,800 3,996 3,809 4,041 Minority Interest (72) (60) (64) (72) LT Debt 6,804 4,480 4,480 4,480 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 750 787 826 868 Net Profit 1,319 1,079 1,081 1,147 Shareholder’s Equity 15,005 15,841 16,707 17,632 Net Profit before Except. 1,288 1,079 1,081 1,147 Minority Interests 882 942 1,006 1,079 EBITDA 2,370 2,065 2,196 2,447 Total Cap. & Liab. 46,632 44,750 44,069 46,093 Sales Gth (%) (3.0) 6.0 (3.0) 9.9 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 10,727 10,907 10,646 11,807 EBITDA Gth (%) 2.6 (12.9) 6.3 11.4 Net Cash/(Debt) (12,881) (12,755) (12,032) (12,533) Opg Profit Gth (%) 0.9 (20.5) 4.3 13.1 Net Profit Gth (%) 5.1 (18.2) 0.2 6.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 21.7 21.2 21.2 21.2 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown


Pre-Tax Profit 1,775 1,444 1,453 1,546 Revenues (US$ m) Dep. & Amort. 607 694 767 835 M&P 35,678 34,869 33,370 36,568 Tax Paid (385) (306) (307) (327) Plantations 1,447 1,596 1,529 1,659 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (104) (51) (53) (56) Consumer products 7,555 8,154 8,598 9,726 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1,114) (200) 260 (1,169) Others 2,843 2,837 2,807 2,815 Other Operating CF 14 9 (11) (3) Elimination (3,438) (710) (943) (933) Net Operating CF 795 1,590 2,108 825 Total 44,085 46,746 45,360 49,835 Capital Exp.(net) (1,453) (1,226) (1,162) (1,095) EBIT (US$ m) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 M&P 1,100 489 544 631 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Plantations 270 386 389 447 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Consumer products 222 261 302 348 Other Investing CF 269 (124) (130) (137) Others 94 83 83 83 Net Investing CF (1,184) (1,350) (1,292) (1,231) Elimination (93) (67) (72) (83) Div Paid (281) (242) (216) (222) Total 1,593 1,152 1,245 1,426 Chg in Gross Debt 3,950 (3,013) (1,462) 754 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 M&P 3.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 Other Financing CF (108) 48 39 41 Plantations 18.6 24.2 25.5 26.9 Net Financing CF 3,562 (3,207) (1,639) 573 Consumer products 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 Net Cashflow 3,173 (2,967) (822) 166 Others 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 Total 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 Source: Company, DBS Bank

48

68

88

108

128

148

168

188

208

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.7

6.2


Relative IndexS$

Wilmar International (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)



DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published,the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 30 Nov 2014 except for Astra Agro Lestari, London Sumatra P, First Resources, Indofood Agri Resources, Golden Agri Resources, Wilmar International

2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 30 Nov 2014.

3.

Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the company mentioned.



DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or

located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA..

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR") (formerly known as HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.

United Kingdom

This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients.

Dubai

This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United States

Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other jurisdictions

In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

DBS Bank Ltd.

12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore 018982 Tel. 65-6878 8888

Company Regn. No. 196800306E

regional industry focus plantation companies - dbs industry focus plantation companies page 2 peer...

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