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Value emerging

Recent share-price drop is attractive, as scattered dryness this year is long-term bullish

But weak demand from China/Eurozone, lower crude oil price mean near-term volatility

We trimmed CY14F-16FCPO prices 1-4% to account for lower crude oil price expectations

AALI, BAL, FR, IFAR raised to BUY, as recent drop more than reflects current weakness in CPO prices.

LSIP raised to HOLD. 3Q14 results are indicatively stronger both y-o-y and q-o-q

Market rout is an opportunity. Since our 12 Aug14 report, planters under our coverage (in USD) have dropped by 24% in IDX, 11% in Bursa, and 6% in SGX. We believe this offers an opportunity to accumulate select counters for a 12-month horizon. We expect CPO prices to recover from 2H15 onwards, as scattered dryness this year may adversely impact FFB formation next year. We also see supply growth deceleration from CY16 onwards, with subpar expansion in planted area continuing for some time to come. ...but expect near-term volatility. Near-term demand on palm oil may remain subdued on the back of: (1) weak economic growth in China and Eurozone; (2) negative biodiesel spread; and (3) ample soybean oil supplies. Thankfully seasonally lower palm oil output should partly help balance out global palm oil inventories. Imputing lower Brent prices. Crude oil prices are only 40% correlated with palm oil. However, the steep drop in diesel prices limits biodiesel demand and boosts higher palm oil stockpile than we previously anticipated. Having cut CY14F-16F Brent prices by 4-11%, we trimmed our CPO price forecasts by 1-4%. This resulted in 0-14% cut in fair values and 1-14% cut in FY15F earnings (except for SGRO, which we adjusted higher on better yields). On this basis and 3Q14 average spot price of RM2,212, we expect planters to book stronger 3Q14 earnings (both y-o-y and q-o-q). These imply sequential decline in 4Q14 earnings; given lower prices (we expect c.RM2,100 average) and seasonally lower output. Turning more positive. Our revised TPs imply that planters now offer 4-24% upside from current levels. On a 12-month view, we upgraded AALI, BAL, FR and IFAR to BUY. We upgraded LSIP to HOLD, as its recent share price drop has more than priced in lower CPO price expectations. Risks to our call: (1) higher-than-expected labour inflation in Indonesia, (2) weather anomalies (El Nino is forecast to emerge in 4Q14), (3) crude oil price volatility, and (4) changes in import/ export taxes.

JCI : 5,103.52 KLCI : 1,810.68 STI : 3,236.50 Analyst Ben SANTOSO +65 6682 3707 [email protected] Kevin Wong +603 26043965 [email protected] Indonesia Research Team Sector coverage

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank, AllianceDBS *Prices as of 22 Oct14

CPO, soybean, soybean oil price revisions

Source: DBS Bank estimates

DBS Group Research . Equity 24 Oct 2014

Regional Industry Focus

Plantation Companies

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Price * Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%)

LCY US$m LCY 3 mth 12 mth Rating

Rp Astra Agro Lestari 19,625 2,564 22,400 (26.2) (6.6) BUY London Sumatra 1,780 1,008 1,760 (14.2) 13.4 HOLD Sampoerna Agro 1,840 289 2,020 (12.4) 2.2 HOLD BW Plantation 580 217 1,925 (49.8) (36.3) NR RM Felda Global 3.06 3,423 3.45 (25.4) (29.7) HOLD Genting Plantations 10.00 2,359 12.35 (12.7) 1.0 BUY IJM Plantation 3.23 818 3.60 N.A N.A HOLD IOI Corporation 4.65 9,070 4.30 (8.5) 24.0 HOLD KL Kepong 20.20 6,596 21.00 (14.8) (12.2) HOLD Sime Darby 9.13 16,976 9.75 (5.4) (4.7) HOLD TSH Resources 2.25 930 2.55 (5.6) 35.7 BUY S$ Bumitama Agri 1.01 1,390 1.21 (19.5) 2.0 BUY First Resources 1.90 2,357 2.14 (19.2) 0.5 BUY Indofood Agri 0.82 904 0.98 (17.3) (7.9) BUY Golden Agri 0.48 4,825 0.51 (12.7) (11.1) NR Wilmar Int’l 3.12 15,632 3.30 (5.7) (9.3) HOLD

2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018FCPO price (RM/MT, FOB Malaysia) 2,377 2,380 2,300 2,530 2,480 2,550CPO price (US$/MT, CIF Rotterdam) 857 825 815 905 890 915Prev. CPO price (RM/MT, FOB Malaysia) 2,377 2,430 2,400 2,560 2,590 2,670Prev. CPO price (US$/MT, CIF Rotterdam) 857 840 856 921 933 960

Soybean price (US$/MT, FOB Chicago) 520 460 408 384 388 405Soybean oil price (US$/MT, FOB Chicago) 999 860 846 864 850 874Previous SB price (US$/MT, FOB Chicago) 520 478 407 401 405 418Previous SBO price (US$/MT, FOB Chicago) 999 860 884 877 887 915

Natural rubber price 2,470 1,777 1,713 1,662 1,701 1,739Prev. natural rubber 2,489 2,908 2,892 2,884 2,876 2,868



Peer comparison

Source: Companies, Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank, AllianceDBS



Page 2

Es t. la nd ba nk

15F own ma t.

15F own

p la nte dSha re pric e Ma rke t c a p

Adjus te d 15F

EV/p la nte d

Adjuste d 15F

EV/ma ture

13-16F own

FFB vo l CAGR

13-16F EPS

CAGR Re cTa rge t pric e Ba s i s

(ha .) (ha .) (ha .) 22/10/14 (m) (own) (own) 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F % %

Indone s ia

Astra Agro L. n/a 194,389 242,622 19,625Rp 2,573US$ 10,977US$ 13,700US$ 10.4 10.5 2.6 4.3 65.6 -1.6 5.7 NC 5.0 27.2 B 22,400Rp DCF

London Sum.* 215,917 79,661 94,845 1,780Rp 1,011US$ 9,082US$ 10,813US$ 11.6 12.5 2.5 3.5 35.8 -7.4 NC NC 7.5 15.8 H 1,760Rp DCF

Sampoerna A. 246,873 57,439 78,755 1,865Rp 293US$ 4,516US$ 6,193US$ 10.1 9.4 0.9 2.6 192.2 7.3 36.5 33.9 13.6 61.1 H 2,020Rp DCF

BW Plantation 105,000 53,521 69,948 580Rp 216US$ 6,066US$ 7,928US$ 10.6 5.9 1.7 2.9 35.1 77.8 161.9 136.7 21.3 60.0 NR 1,925Rp DCF

Simple a vg 4,094US$ 7 ,660US$ 9 ,658US$ 10.7 9.6

Ma la ys ia

Felda Global V. 355,864 258,853 323,587 3.06RM 3,423US$ 8,105US$ 10,131US$ 14.3 17.2 3.5 2.9 -25.6 -16.9 0.9 NC -0.6 (9.5) H 3.45RM DCF

Genting Plant. 150,912 92,457 125,941 10.00RM 2,327US$ 21,966US$ 29,921US$ 23.4 22.6 0.9 1.0 42.5 3.3 NC NC 10.5 22.4 B 12.35RM SOP

IJM Plant. 78,484 44,340 58,389 3.23RM 794US$ 13,111US$ 17,265US$ 20.5 21.0 1.7 2.7 -25.9 56.6 19.3 27.9 13.4 (0.3) H 3.60RM DCF

IOI Corp** 220,593 151,542 180,639 4.65RM 9,260US$ 15,908US$ 18,963US$ 12.2 19.0 4.6 2.5 55.7 -55.2 56.7 54.7 2.6 (9.4) H 4.30RM DCF

KL Kepong 245,905 176,529 192,958 20.20RM 6,612US$ 13,319US$ 14,558US$ 20.1 20.9 3.1 2.8 19.6 -8.3 8.3 5.3 4.5 6.2 H 21.00RM DCF

Sime Darby 647,373 462,695 525,325 9.13RM 16,823US$ 11,353US$ 12,890US$ 17.2 17.2 3.0 2.8 -10.2 -7.8 23.1 21.0 0.0 (3.8) H 9.75RM SOP

TSH Res. 82,841 30,398 43,763 2.25RM 930US$ 15,428US$ 22,211US$ 22.1 20.6 1.1 1.2 -2.8 7.5 85.1 83.7 16.3 8.6 B 2.55RM DCF

Simple a vg 40,168US$ 14,170US$ 17,991US$ 18.5 19.8

Singa pore

Bumitama A. 191,561 91,834 125,973 1.01S$ 1,394US$ 12,457US$ 17,087US$ 12.4 12.0 0.8 1.2 57.6 3.7 45.8 35.9 21.6 28.2 B 1.21S$ DCF

First Resources 312,488 120,778 170,727 1.90S$ 2,191US$ 14,888US$ 21,045US$ 12.0 11.8 2.4 2.2 -17.1 1.7 9.8 NC 9.2 0.5 B 2.14S$ DCF

Golden Agri R. 558,000 362,132 395,102 0.48S$ 4,576US$ 15,056US$ 16,427US$ 14.9 13.5 1.7 1.8 -1.1 10.5 23.7 22.7 8.0 17.1 NR 0.51S$ DCF

Indofood Agri* 541,224 202,853 260,406 0.82S$ 927US$ 6,151US$ 7,896US$ 9.3 9.5 0.0 0.0 114.9 -2.6 19.5 16.8 10.4 47.4 B 0.98S$ DCF

Wilmar Int'l 573,401 235,923 251,048 3.12S$ 15,647US$ 3,489US$ 3,713US$ 14.5 13.7 1.4 1.5 -17.9 6.0 77.8 74.8 5.6 (5.9) H 3.30S$ DCF

Simple a vg 24,735US$ 12,138US$ 15,614US$ 12.6 12.1* Including rubber and other crops** Excluding effective stake in associates land bank

FY Div. yie ld ,

%

EPS growth (inc . BA

ga ins ), %

FY Ne t ge a ring,

%CY PER, x



Highlights Value emerging

We recommend investors to accumulate select counters, as we believe the recent share price drop offers attractive upside on a 12-month horizon. SGX-listed plantation stocks are currently trading close to -1SD forward PE, while IDX-listed counters are trading between -1SD and average forward PE. We believe global palm oil supply growth may decelerate sooner than we had previously expect, as scattered dryness this year may adversely impact FFB formation next year –counterbalancing a flattish prospective demand. We also see further deceleration in supply growth from CY16F onwards, given an anticipated drop in new maturities. Changes to our stock ratings

In this report, we upgraded our ratings on AALI, BAL, FR and IFAR to BUY; as we believe recent drops in their share prices have excessively priced-in weaker global demand for palm oil. Likewise, LSIP is upgraded to HOLD. But expect near-term volatility

Notwithstanding the promising long-term outlook, we see near-term volatility persisting until 1Q15:

1. Soybean harvesting is in full swing in the US and more supplies are expected to maintain pressure on soybean prices. According to Oil World, current soybean prices may have at times fallen below production cost. Hence, planting intentions by farmers in Brazil and Argentina (somewhat influenced by USD strength) may determine soybean price direction by the end of this year.

2. Drop in crude oil prices have adversely affected diesel

prices; and may have prompted a demand switch from more expensive biodiesel. Outside committed volume, we see a drop in palm oil demand for biodiesel production.

3. Likely Argentine Peso devaluation may boost short-term supplies in soybean export market. According to Oil World, Argentina held 28.5m MT of soybean inventory at end Aug14 compared to 22.4m MT at end Aug13 (vis-à-vis relatively flat numbers in the US and Brazil).

4. According to Food Navigator (a news portal), authorities in Peru have closed down the second anchovy fishing season (Nov-Jan), as recent acoustic survey revealed insufficient number of fish due to El Nino-like conditions. According to NOAA website, a weak El Nino is favoured to begin in Oct-Dec14, lasting through May15.

Biodiesel profitability

Source: DBS Bank estimates Adjusting CPO price to lower crude oil price forecasts

While crude oil prices are only 40% correlated to palm oil prices, we believe the recent drop would nevertheless have an adverse impact on palm oil demand for the production of biodiesel. Hence current negative spread should limit palm oil demand for biodiesel production on committed volume only. On the prospects of a higher stockpile than we had previously anticipated, we adjusted our palm oil price forecasts accordingly.

In this report, we trimmed CY14F/15F/16F palm oil prices by 2%4%/1% (in Ringgit terms) and by 2%/5%/2% (in USD terms) – both FOB Pasir Gudang. This follows a likewise cut to our soybean oil prices by 0%/4%/1% (FOB Chicago). We also adjusted our supply and demand numbers based on latest monthly data and forecasts supplied by both USDA and Oil World publications; and imputed changes to our exchange rate forecasts on Rupiah, Ringgit and Singapore Dollars. Our revised palm oil supply and demand is summarised below:

Gross profit /MT for int ernal consumpt ion in Indonesia (no subsidies, ex. fre ight ) - incl. sa les of glycerin

80.0 82.0 84.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 92.0 94.01,900 -15.3 -0.7 14.0 28.7 43.3 58.0 72.6 87.32,000 -11.4 3.3 18.0 32.6 47.3 61.9 76.6 91.32,100 -42.4 -27.7 -13.1 1.6 16.2 30.9 45.6 60.22,200 -55.9 -41.3 -26.6 -12.0 2.7 17.4 32.0 46.72,300 -86.2 -71.5 -56.9 -42.2 -27.6 -12.9 1.8 16.42,400 -116.5 -101.8 -87.1 -72.5 -57.8 -43.2 -28.5 -13.82,500 -126.8 -112.1 -97.5 -82.8 -68.2 -53.5 -38.8 -24.2

Crude o il price (US$/bbl) - Brent

CP

O p

rice

(R

M/M

T)

- FO

B



Palm oil supply and demand forecast

Source: USDA, Oil World, DBS Bank estimates Soybean supply and demand forecast

Source: USDA, Oil World, DBS Bank estimates Changes to our earnings and valuations

In addition to changes to our soybean and palm oil price assumptions, we factored-in higher labour inflation in Indonesia, as we expect a Rp3,000/litre increase (i.e. 46% jump) in subsidised fuel prices next month. According to our economist, each 10% increase in subsidised fuel prices would result in a 0.8-1.0 ppt change in inflation in Indonesia. This means more labour cost pressures in CY15F. In this scenario, we assume that a 12% increase in CY15F unit labour cost would suffice, as we believe lower crude oil prices and a stronger Rupiah (vs. current level) should help to stem significant inflation pressures. 3QCY14 earnings preview: stronger y-o-y and q-o-q

Based on the above revisions, we expect plantation counters within our coverage to book stronger earnings in 3QCY14 (vs. 3QCY13 low base); driven by better yields and higher ASP. 3QCY14 CPO ASP for the Indonesian domestic market is indicatively higher than spot Malaysian FOB prices due to

strong demand coming from newly built refineries. We understand these refineries must operate at least at a 70% utilisation rate to cover their fixed costs. However, as both CPO and refined-product export taxes are now zero – while biodiesel margins have turned negative – we doubt CPO demand in Indonesia (outside committed volume) would remain as strong in 4Q14. For this reason, we believe 3QCY14 earnings should be the peak for most companies. A summary of our 3QCY15 earnings preview is provided at the end of this report. Further details from the new Indonesian Plantation Law

In our report dated 16 Sep14 and 1 Oct14, we put forward future changes in the Indonesian plantation investment landscape (as reported by the news media), given the issuance of new Indonesian Plantation Law. As we review the new law, we found that key changes do include restriction on foreign ownership; as well as articles on access to state-owned land, more equitable distribution of plantation development through smallholder programme, and integration with cattle farming. However, previous media reports on compulsory use of local fertiliser and seeds were absent. 1. Use of state land for plantation development (article

11 and 16). According to the new law, in certain circumstances where there is a change in the status of state forest or waste land, the government is allowed to grant rights to develop these areas into plantation in accordance to prevailing government regulations. At the same time, the new law regulates the use of land rights. Planters must develop at least 30% of their land rights no later than 3 years following the issuance of business license. Should the land remained undeveloped in accordance to the provisions within 6 years from issuance of the license, the government may re-take the undeveloped part of the land. In the previous Plantation Law no 18/2004, the government may re-take undeveloped land 3 years after the business license is issued.

Price of soybeans (US$/MT)

(FOB)

Ending Stocks (k MT)

Global demand (k MT)

Global supply (k

MT)

Stock/ usage rat io (%)

Crude o il price

(US$/bbl)

2013 520 59,900 261,350 266,560 22.9% 108.82014 460 70,260 274,790 285,150 25.6% 104.42015 408 89,100 291,960 310,800 30.5% 100.02016 384 96,619 310,528 318,047 31.1% 97.02017 388 98,566 326,987 328,934 30.1% 99.32018 405 95,726 342,316 339,476 28.0% 101.52019 431 92,074 356,469 352,816 25.8% 105.22020 460 86,176 369,570 363,673 23.3% 109.4

CPO price

(US$/MT) CIF

Ending Stocks (k MT)

Global demand (k MT)

Global supply (k MT)

Stock/ usage rat io (%)

Soybean o il price (US$/MT)

FOB2013 857 10,135 57,439 56,209 17.6% 9992014 824 10,316 58,751 59,576 17.6% 8602015 816 10,572 61,954 62,210 17.1% 8462016 903 10,744 64,793 64,965 16.6% 8642017 890 11,016 67,502 67,774 16.3% 8502018 913 11,277 70,058 70,319 16.1% 8742019 951 11,754 72,448 72,924 16.2% 9142020 1,020 11,941 74,658 74,846 16.0% 986



2. Integration with cattle farming (article 44). According to the new law, plantation development is to be integrated with processing capacities and/or cattle farming; although the main focus must remain with the plantation development.

3. On equitable distribution to smallholders (article 45). According to the new law, licensed planters must facilitate surrounding community’s development within a minimum of 20% of the total land rights. Planters are given 3 years from the license issuance to comply with this regulation. There is nothing new about this article; except for the time limit. We should also point out that regulatory implementation within various districts in Indonesia may not necessarily comply with central government’s directives.

4. On the restrictions of foreign ownership (article 95). According to the new Plantation Law, the restriction on foreign investors will be based on several conditions, such as type of crop, scale of business, and condition of the area. This will be regulated under Government Regulation (PP). The percentage of the maximum foreign ownership therefore would be determined by the incoming administration’s Minister of Agriculture, whom will also decide on how the transfer to local ownership would be administered following a five-year transition period

Despite the above changes; we see little impact on plantation companies’ valuations; as we understand most counters (under our coverage) would not have their Indonesian land rights maturing until well beyond the five year transition period. Thereafter, only subsidiaries with maturing leasehold titles would be subject to partial sale to domestic entities based on fair valuation.

Summary of EPS and TP revisions Source: DBS Bank, AllianceDBS estimates

Re c

Pre v. CY14F

EPS

Pre v. CY15F

EPS

Ne w CY14F

EPS

Ne w CY15F

EPS

CY14F EPS re v.

CY15F EPS re v.

Pre v. TP

Ne w TP TP re v. Comme nts

Indone s ia (EPS/TP)

Astra Agro Lestari (Rp) B 1,960 1,999 1,894 1,865 -3% -7% 23,950 22,400 -6.5% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

London Sumatra (Rp) H 147 143 153 142 4% -1% 1,770 1,760 -0.6% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl., yields

Sampoerna Agro (Rp) H 174 175 184 198 6% 13% 1,960 2,020 3.1% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

BW Plantation NR 56 101 55 98 -2% -3% 2,050 1,925 -6.1% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

Ma la ys ia (EPS/TP)

Felda Global V. (sen/RM) H 21.8 20.2 21.5 17.8 -2% -12% 4.00 3.45 -13.8% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

Genting Plant. (sen/RM) B 47.5 48.5 42.8 44.2 -10% -9% 12.60 12.35 -2.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

IJM Plantations (sen/RM) H 15.8 16.6 15.8 15.4 0% -7% 3.60 3.60 0.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

IOI Corporation (sen/RM) H 39.2 25.9 38.2 24.4 -3% -6% 4.65 4.30 -7.5% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

KL Kepong (sen/RM) H 99.4 99.7 100.7 96.5 1% -3% 21.00 21.00 0.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

Sime Darby (sen/RM) H 53.4 53.7 53.1 52.9 -1% -1% 9.80 9.75 -0.5% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

TSH Resources (sen/RM) B 10.6 11.5 10.2 11.0 -3% -5% 2.67* 2.55 -4.5% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs

Singa pore (EPS/TP)

Bumitama Agri (Rp/S$) B 778 813 767 796 -1% -2% 1.23 1.21 -1.3% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

First Resources (Rp/S$) B 12.7 14.2 12.5 12.7 -2% -11% 2.14 2.14 0.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

Golden Agri R. (Rp/S$) NR 2.8 3.3 2.5 2.8 -8% -14% 0.54 0.51 -5.9% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl.

Indofood Agri (Rp/S$) B 819 844 830 809 1% -4% 0.97 0.98 1.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs, raise labour infl., yields

Wilmar Int'l (US¢/ S$) H 18.4 18.3 16.9 17.9 -8% -2% 3.30 3.30 0.0% Cut CPO & rubber ASP, fert. costs



Revisions to our currency exchange rates

Source: DBS Bank estimates Key risks to our call Risks against our CPO price forecasts are detailed below: 1. Weather anomalies. This year both Malaysia and

Indonesia experienced severe dryness – despite the absence of El Nino. Hence, the forecast emergence of a weak El Nino in 4Q14 is not an assurance that the harvesting seasons in Malaysia, Indonesia, US, and South America will not be adversely affected. In circumstances in which yields exceeds/falls below our current expectations, we may have to adjust our supply forecasts.

2. Slower-than-expected Chinese economic growth. We

imputed demand growth for both soybean and palm oil based on Apr14 IMF global GDP growth forecasts. China accounts for 19% and 37% shares of global palm oil and soybean demand respectively. Weaker-than-expected economic growth forecasts globally will bear adverse consequences to our price forecasts.

3. Better-than-expected Chinese demand. Flat Chinese palm oil demand since 2H12 has been a drag on palm oil prices to date. Oil World expects Chinese 2013/2014F palm oil consumption to expand by 6% from 3% in the current season. Any recovery beyond this number will further reduce inventory and boost prices.

FX ra te s (YE) 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FUSD/MYR 3.28 3.20 3.14 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10USD/IDR 12,189 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750 11,750USD/SGD 1.26 1.26 1.22 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20USD/THB 32.7 32.3 31.8 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6

Pre vious FX ra te s (YE) 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FUSD/MYR 3.28 3.15 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09USD/IDR 12,189 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500USD/SGD 1.26 1.20 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16USD/THB 32.71 31.20 30.70 30.70 30.70 30.70 30.70 30.70

% stre ngthe n (we a ke n) 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FUSD/MYR 0% -2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%USD/IDR 0% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2%USD/SGD 0% -5% -5% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3%USD/THB 0% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3%



2QCY14 results review and 3QCY14 results preview

Company Results vs forecasts

2QCY14 results highlights Realised FFB yield

Realised CPO ASP

3QCY14 result preview

Astra Agro Lestari

Below 2Q14 reported earnings of Rp584bn (+62% y-o-y; -26% q-o-q) - below expectations on annualised basis. 2Q14 CPO output jumped 28% y-o-y, but combined CPO and olein sales rose 12% y-o-y, while CPO ASP eased 5% q-o-q. Cost of sales jumped 48% y-o-y (+19% q-o-q), as it added refining cost and bought 53% more (y-o-y) FFB from third parties which contributed to higher 2Q14 raw materials and processing costs. AALI’s 2Q14 gross margin consequently eased to 30% (from 32% in 1Q14), translating into 23% OPM (down from 25% in previous quarter).

c.7.9 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp8,535 /kg

We expect AALI to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp742bn and Rp747bn. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 29 Oct14.

BW Plantation N.A. 2Q14 reported earnings of Rp56bn (-34%

q-o-q; +14% y-o-y). CPO output jumped 19% q-o-q to 39k MT, while PK output jumped 14% to 6k MT. However, it was offset by the lower CPO and PK ASP at Rp8,200/kg and Rp5,300/kg,

c.3.6 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp8,200 /kg

We expect BWPT to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp62bn and Rp68bn. The group is due to release its 3QCY14 results on 19 Dec14

London Sumatra Indonesia

Below 2Q14 net profit of Rp247bn (+8% y-o-y; -15% q-o-q) is below expectations on annualised basis. CPO output recovered 11% q-o-q in 2Q14, but net profit was dragged by a 6% drop in CPO ASP and 14% drop in rubber ASP, in addition to 28% drop in rubber sales volume, 2% drop in seeds sales volume (given slow industry expansion) and accumulation of CPO inventory by 11k MT due to timing of shipments.

c.4.5 MT/ha (own)

c.Rp8,453 /kg

We expect Lonsum to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp266bn and Rp279bn. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 30 Oct14.

Sampoerna Agro

Above 2Q14 profit surged to Rp130bn; annualised 1H14 profit is ahead of our full year estimate. The strong y-o-y growth was due to higher CPO sales volume (+39%) and strong CPO ASP (+32%). The group credited the output jump to strong recovery of South Sumatra own FFB yields. Including smallholders, FFB output rose 115% y-o-y (+61% q-o-q) in 2Q14 to 427k MT.

c.4.2 MT/ha (inc. plasma)

c.Rp8,777 /kg

We expect SGRO to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp80bn and Rp86bn. The group is due to release its 3QCY14 results on 30 Oct14.



2QCY14 results review and 3QCY14 results preview (continued)



Realised CPO ASP


Felda Global Ventures

In line Excluding LLA liability charges (RM100m) and one-off gain from the disposal of Voray Holding (RM12.6m), FGV’s 2Q14 core net profit grew four-fold y-o-y to RM252m (vs. 2Q13: RM44m). This took 1H14 core net profit to RM487m (+72% y-o-y) – representing 51% of our full year estimate.

c.4.46 MT/ha

c.RM2,648 /MT

We expect FGV to report 3QCY14 earnings of between RM230m and RM237m.

Genting Plantations

Below Excluding RM16m unrealised FX loss, core profit was RM83.6m (+97% y-o-y; +3% q-o-q). The seasonal back-loaded earnings may not happen this year after the recent drop in CPO and PK ASP. 2Q14 core profit is only 22% of our full year forecast (vs. 24% historical average).

N.A. c.RM2,583 /MT

We expect GENP to report 3QCY14 earnings of between RM67m and RM78m. The group is due to release its results on 19 Nov14

IJM Plantations

In line Excluding net FX losses (RM17.7m) and fair value gains from CPO swaps (RM3.9m), IJMP’s 1QFY15 core net profit jumped to RM39.9m from RM9.4m in 1QFY14. This is in line at 29% of our full-year estimate as we expect some earnings downside risks in the following two quarters.

N.A. c.RM2,566 /MT

We expect IJMP to report 3QCY14 earnings of c.RM25m.

IOI Corporation

Above Excluding RM101.3m translation FX gains and RM52.4m de-merger gains, IOI booked core 4QFY14F earnings of RM253.8m (-16% y-o-y; -17% q-o-q). Including non recurring items, IOI booked 4QFY14 earnings of RM407.5m (+53% y-o-y). The group’s FY14 core earnings were RM1,486m (-10% y-o-y) – in line with consensus estimate, but below our core earnings forecast of RM1,321m.

c.5.7MT/ ha

c.RM2,664/MT

We expect IOI to report 3QCY14 earnings of between RM343m and RM367m.

KL Kepong In line KLK booked 3QFY14 core earnings of

RM230.5m (+23% y-o-y;-16% q-o-q) – in line with our forecast on an annualized basis, but below consensus. Plantations’ operating profit dropped by 20% q-o-q, due to negative contributions from refinery and kernel crushing plants.

N.A. c.RM2,507/MT

We expect KLK to report 3QCY14 earnings of between RM277m and-RM290m. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 19 Nov14






Realised CPO ASP


Sime Darby

Below Net profit came in at RM1,193m (-10% y-o-y; +40% q-o-q). Excluding RM163m gains from the disposal of subsidiaries, RM107m from the disposal of properties, and RM28m from changes to the pension provision, core profit was RM957m (-1% y-o-y; +16% q-o-q), below our estimate.

N.A. c.RM2,474 /MT

We expect SIME to report 3QCY14 earnings of between RM826m and-RM844m. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 27 Nov14.

TSH Resources

In line Excluding RM12.5m unrealised forex gain, TSH’s core net profit eased 2% y-o-y to RM23m. This takes 1H14 core net profit to RM83m (+84% y-o-y) or 59% of our full-year estimate. 2Q14 core profit is in line as earnings could be affected by softer refining margins and lower CPO prices in 2H14.

N.A. c.RM2,463 /MT

We expect TSH to report 3QCY14 earnings of c.RM33m. The group is due to release its 3QCY14 results on 18 Nov14.

Bumitama Agri Above Ex. Rp85.5bn translational FX gains,

Bumitama (BAL) booked 2Q14 core earnings of Rp378.8bn (+123% y-o-y; +37% q-o-q) – ahead of expectations on an annualised basis. Reported 2Q14 earnings came in at Rp293.3bn (+90%; -5% q-o-q) and brought 1H14 earnings to Rp601.2bn – or c.44% of our FY14F earnings.

c.4.8 MT/ha

c.Rp 8,715 /kg

We expect Bumitama to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp320bn and-Rp342bn. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 12 Nov14.

First Resources Below Excluding FX losses and losses on derivative

financial instruments, First Resources’ 2Q14 core net profit came in at US$29.7m (-32% y-o-y; -21% q-o-q) – below expectations on an annualised basis. Reported 2Q14 earnings came in at US$26.1m (-42%; -31% q-o-q) bringing 1H14 earnings to US$71.1m (-30% y-o-y) – representing 35% of our full-year forecast.

c.4.0 MT/ha

c.US$702 /MT

We expect FR to report 3QCY14 earnings of between US$58m and-US$63m. The group is due to release its 3QCY14 results on 13 Nov14.

Golden Agri Resources

Below 2Q14 reported earnings were US$27.3m (-40% y-o-y; -74% q-o-q). Excluding US$21.7m of FX losses, Golden Agri (GGR) booked 2Q14 core earnings of US$49m (-17% y-o-y, -51% q-o-q), representing 15% of FY14F earnings (vs. historical average of 17%).

c. 5.6 MT/ha

c. US$ 843 /MT

We expect Golden Agri to report 3QCY14 earnIngs of between US$61m and-US$68m. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 12 Nov14.






Realised CPO ASP


Indofood Agri In line Excluding translational FX losses of

Rp91.5bn, IndoAgri booked 2Q14 core earnings of Rp316 bn (+377% y-o-y; +228% q-o-q ) – representing 25% of our full year forecast (ex translational FX gains/losses). However, on a pretax level, 1H14 results represented only 32% of our full year forecast vs. 41% historical average) – given the poor 1Q14 performance.

c. 4.3 MT/ha

c.Rp8,468 /kg

We expect IndoAgri to report 3QCY14 earnings of between Rp383bn and-Rp415bn. The group is due to release its 3QCY14 results on 30 Oct14.

Wilmar International

Below Wilmar booked 2Q14 core earnings of US$163m (-33% y-o-y; -24% q-o-q) – below our/consensus expectations on annualised basis. This brought 1H14 core net profit to US$377.6m (-32% y-o-y), which accounted for 34% of our full-year forecast vs. 38% historical average. Reported 2Q14 earnings came in at US$170.7m (-22% y-o-y; +5% q-o-q).

c.5.3 MT/ha

N.A. We expect Wilmar to report 3QCY14 earnings of between US$397m and-US$410m. The group is due to announce its 3QCY14 results on 11 Nov14.

Sources: Companies, DBS Bank, AllianceDBS estimates



STOCK PROFILES


Astra Agro Lestari

Astra Agro Lestari (BUY, upgraded from HOLD; Rp19,625; AALI IJ; Price Target: Rp 22,400; Prev. TP: Rp 22,950) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 12,675 15,977 17,082 19,219 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,575 EBITDA 3,258 5,000 4,938 6,012 Pre-tax Profit 2,605 4,150 4,086 5,164 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 30,904 / 2,564 Net Profit 1,801 2,983 2,937 3,712 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,801 2,983 2,937 3,712 PT Astra International Tbk (%) 79.7 EPS (Rp) 1,144 1,894 1,865 2,357 Free Float (%) 20.3 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 1,144 1,894 1,865 2,357 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,729 EPS Gth (%) (25) 66 (2) 26 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (25) 66 (2) 26 Diluted EPS (Rp) 1,144 1,894 1,865 2,357 Price Relative Net DPS (Rp) 615 515 853 839 BV Per Share (Rp) 6,283 7,663 8,675 10,193 PE (X) 17.2 10.4 10.5 8.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 17.2 10.4 10.5 8.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.9 8.0 7.7 6.3 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.2 6.4 6.4 5.0 Net Div Yield (%) 3.1 2.6 4.3 4.3 P/Book Value (X) 3.1 2.6 2.3 1.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.1 CASH CASH ROAE (%) 19.0 27.2 22.8 25.0 Earnings Rev (%): (3.4) (6.7) (0.9) Consensus EPS (Rp): 1,722 1,905 2,052 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 12,675 15,977 17,082 19,219 Net Fixed Assets 6,494 6,812 7,022 7,108 Cost of Goods Sold (8,593) (10,793) (11,778) (12,805) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 4,082 5,184 5,304 6,414 Other LT Assets 6,778 7,344 8,183 9,061 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,077) (1,177) (1,304) (1,401) Cash & ST Invts 709 2,677 2,411 2,977 Operating Profit 3,005 4,006 4,001 5,013 Inventory 803 1,101 1,201 1,306 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (345) 233 106 108 Debtors 4 42 44 50 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 176 281 300 338 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (54) (88) (21) 43 Total Assets 14,963 18,257 19,162 20,840 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 2,605 4,150 4,086 5,164 ST Debt 2,152 2,251 1,252 1,252 Tax (702) (1,038) (1,021) (1,291) Other Current Liab 1,608 1,905 2,055 2,278 Minority Interest (102) (130) (128) (161) LT Debt 571 1,138 1,138 0 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 365 393 424 467 Net Profit 1,801 2,983 2,937 3,712 Shareholder’s Equity 9,895 12,067 13,661 16,051 Net Profit before Except. 1,801 2,983 2,937 3,712 Minority Interests 373 503 630 791 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 1,801 2,983 2,937 3,712 Total Cap. & Liab. 14,963 18,257 19,162 20,840 EBITDA 3,258 5,000 4,938 6,012 Sales Gth (%) 9.6 26.0 6.9 12.5 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (625) (482) (510) (585) EBITDA Gth (%) (19.6) 53.5 (1.2) 21.7 Net Cash/(Debt) (2,014) (712) 21 1,725 Opg Profit Gth (%) (13.0) 33.3 (0.1) 25.3 Net Profit Gth (%) (25.3) 65.6 (1.6) 26.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 2,605 4,150 4,086 5,164 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 599 762 832 891 CPO 11,495 10,803 10,549 12,317 Tax Paid 0 0 0 0 PK 1,161 1,832 1,841 1,897 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PKO 26 45 39 40 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 399 (5) 105 137 Refined products 0 3,297 4,653 4,965 Other Operating CF (760) (1,038) (1,021) (1,291) Others (8) 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 2,843 3,869 4,001 4,901 Total 12,675 15,977 17,082 19,219 Capital Exp.(net) (2,727) (1,796) (1,899) (1,860) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Key Assumptions Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 CPO price (RM/MT) 2.377 2,790 2,680 2,820 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Mature oil palm hectareage 191,085 194,389 200,210 200,210 Other Investing CF (244) (54) (59) (57) CPO sales volume (MT) 1,577,48 1,326,86 1,319,88 1,421,08 Net Investing CF (2,971) (1,850) (1,958) (1,918) Palm kernel sales vol. (MT) 336,414 350,480 379,067 400,478 Div Paid (968) (811) (1,342) (1,322) Avg. USD/IDR rate 10,849 11,477 11,500 11,500 Chg in Gross Debt 1,753 626 (999) (1,138) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (176) 134 32 42 Net Financing CF 609 (51) (2,310) (2,417) Source: Company, DBS Bank

42

62

82

102

122

142

162

182

202

222

11,970.0

16,970.0

21,970.0

26,970.0

31,970.0

Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14

Relative IndexRp

Astra Agro Lestari (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Bumitama Agri

Bumitama Agri (BUY, upgraded from HOLD; S$1.01; BAL SP; Price Target : S$1.21, Prev. TP: S$1.23) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 4,063 5,235 5,678 6,648 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,758 EBITDA 1,451 2,259 2,363 3,024 Pre-tax Profit 1,268 2,046 2,119 2,743 Mkt. Cap (S$bn/US$m) 1.77 / 1,390 Net Profit 855 1,348 1,398 1,802 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 855 1,348 1,398 1,802 Fortune Holdings (%) 50.9 EPS (S cts) 5 8 8 11 IOI Corp Bhd (%) 31.4 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 5 8 8 11 Free Float (%) 17.7 EPS Gth (%) 9 58 4 29 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 694 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 9 58 4 29 Diluted EPS (S cts) 5 8 8 11 Price Relative Net DPS (S cts) 1 1 1 1 BV Per Share (S cts) 34 41 49 58 PE (X) 19.5 12.4 12.0 9.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 19.5 12.4 12.0 9.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 11.4 8.9 8.8 6.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 14.4 9.2 8.8 6.7 Net Div Yield (%) 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.3 P/Book Value (X) 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 ROAE (%) 16.3 21.6 18.8 20.4 Earnings Rev (%): (1.5) (2.1) 1.2 Consensus EPS (S cts): 0 0 0 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 4,063 5,235 5,678 6,648 Net Fixed Assets 2,093 2,464 2,757 2,988 Cost of Goods Sold (2,463) (2,954) (3,208) (3,514) Invts in Associates & JVs 108 108 108 108 Gross Profit 1,600 2,281 2,470 3,134 Other LT Assets 8,341 9,326 10,267 11,213 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (256) (283) (311) (335) Cash & ST Invts 482 1,854 1,064 627 Operating Profit 1,344 1,999 2,159 2,800 Inventory 379 417 452 496 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (25) 79 (16) (21) Debtors 102 74 80 94 Associates & JV Inc (16) (8) 4 4 Other Current Assets 340 340 340 340 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (34) (24) (29) (40) Total Assets 11,844 14,582 15,069 15,866 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 � 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,268 2,046 2,119 2,743 ST Debt 559 1,037 1,234 294 Tax (286) (499) (514) (675) Other Current Liab 924 1,039 1,128 1,264 Minority Interest (126) (199) (206) (266) LT Debt 3,585 4,280 3,046 2,752 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 635 667 700 735 Net Profit 855 1,348 1,398 1,802 Shareholder’s Equity 5,630 6,849 8,046 9,638 Net Profit before Except. 855 1,348 1,398 1,802 Minority Interests 511 710 916 1,182 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 838 1,348 1,398 1,802 Total Cap. & Liab. 11,844 14,582 15,069 15,866 EBITDA 1,451 2,259 2,363 3,024 Sales Gth (%) 15.2 28.9 8.5 17.1 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (104) (209) (255) (335) EBITDA Gth (%) 5.9 55.7 4.6 28.0 Net Cash/(Debt) (3,662) (3,463) (3,215) (2,419) Opg Profit Gth (%) 12.7 48.8 8.0 29.7 Net Profit Gth (%) 8.6 57.6 3.7 28.9 Effective Tax Rate (%) 22.6 24.4 24.2 24.6 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,268 2,046 2,119 2,743 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 148 189 216 241 CPO 3,747 4,710 5,122 6,057 Tax Paid (286) (499) (514) (675) PK 316 525 556 591 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Total 4,063 5,235 5,678 6,648 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 113 105 47 80 Other Operating CF 7 31 33 35 Net Operating CF 1,467 1,872 1,900 2,424 Capital Exp.(net) (2,400) (1,652) (1,451) (1,418) Other Invts.(net) (144) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (14) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (638) 0 0 0 Net Investing CF (3,196) (1,652) (1,451) (1,418) Div Paid (166) (128) (202) (210) Chg in Gross Debt 1,463 1,173 (1,037) (1,234) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (22) 107 0 0 Net Financing CF 1,275 1,152 (1,239) (1,443) Source: Company, DBS Bank

89

109

129

149

169

189

209

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14

Relative IndexS$

Bumitama Agri (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


BW Plantation

BW Plantation (NOT RATED Rp580; BWPT IJ; Price Target: Rp 1,925; Prev. TP: Rp2,050) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 1,144 1,562 2,265 3,028 Issued Capital (m shrs) 4,504 EBITDA 495 764 1,135 1,574 Pre-tax Profit 255 328 582 994 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 2,612 / 217 Net Profit 182 246 437 745 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 182 246 437 745 PTBW Investindo (%) 34.9 EPS (Rp) 41 55 98 167 Credit Suisse Singapore (%) 19.9 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 41 55 98 167 Barclays Bank PLC – KS (%) 7.0 EPS Gth (%) (37) 35 78 71 Free Float (%) 38.2 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (37) 35 78 71 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 45,232 Diluted EPS (Rp) 41 55 98 167 Price Relative Net DPS (Rp) 7 10 17 30 BV Per Share (Rp) 541 594 691 856 PE (X) 14.3 10.6 5.9 3.5 PE Pre Ex. (X) 14.3 10.6 5.9 3.5 P/Cash Flow (X) 6.9 5.2 3.3 2.3 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.3 8.5 5.6 3.9 Net Div Yield (%) 1.2 1.7 2.9 5.2 P/Book Value (X) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 ROAE (%) 9.4 10.7 16.8 23.8 Earnings Rev (%): (1.9) (3.5) 1.5 Consensus EPS (Rp): 78 107 145 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 1,144 1,562 2,265 3,028 Net Fixed Assets 799 935 1,037 1,132 Cost of Goods Sold (603) (786) (1,095) (1,387) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 541 776 1,169 1,641 Other LT Assets 5,082 5,529 5,811 6,184 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (216) (257) (338) (418) Cash & ST Invts 68 52 147 51 Operating Profit 326 519 831 1,223 Inventory 159 244 341 432 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 12 13 14 15 Debtors 25 26 38 50 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 66 63 89 113 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (83) (205) (263) (244) Total Assets 6,200 6,851 7,462 7,961 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 255 328 582 994 ST Debt 322 1,161 547 583 Tax (73) (82) (146) (248) Other Current Liab 393 456 644 831 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 LT Debt 3,245 2,774 3,415 3,019 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 56 60 64 68 Net Profit 182 246 437 745 Shareholder’s Equity 2,185 2,399 2,791 3,460 Net Profit before Except. 182 246 437 745 Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 182 246 437 745 Total Cap. & Liab. 6,200 6,851 7,462 7,961 EBITDA 495 764 1,135 1,574 Sales Gth (%) 21.2 36.5 45.0 33.7 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (142) (122) (177) (236) EBITDA Gth (%) (4.6) 54.3 48.7 38.6 Net Cash/(Debt) (3,499) (3,883) (3,816) (3,552) Opg Profit Gth (%) (22.0) 59.4 60.2 47.0 Net Profit Gth (%) (30.7) 35.1 77.8 70.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 28.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 255 328 582 994 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 159 233 292 337 FFB 82 0 0 0 Tax Paid 0 0 0 0 CPO 986 1,399 2,052 2,776 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PK 76 163 212 252 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 50 20 55 59 Total 1,144 1,562 2,265 3,028 Other Operating CF (15) 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 375 499 783 1,141 Capital Exp.(net) (1,405) (783) (639) (771) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (15) (33) (37) (33) Net Investing CF (1,421) (816) (675) (804) Div Paid (47) (31) (45) (76) Chg in Gross Debt 746 329 27 (360) Capital Issues 363 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 1 4 5 3 Net Financing CF 1,063 302 (13) (433) Source: Company, DBS Bank

28

48

68

88

108

128

148

168

188

208

414.0

614.0

814.0

1,014.0

1,214.0

1,414.0

1,614.0

1,814.0


Relative IndexRp

BW Plantation (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Felda Global Ventures

Felda Global Ventures (HOLD ; RM3.06; FGV MK; Price Target : RM 3.45; Prev RM 4.00) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 12,568 16,823 16,187 17,114 Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,648 EBITDA 1,102 1,648 1,510 1,679 Pre-tax Profit 1,578 1,191 1,020 1,191 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 11,163 / 3,423 Net Profit 1,053 783 650 781 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,011 783 650 781 Federal Land Development (%) 33.7 EPS (sen) 28.9 21.5 17.8 21.4 Lembaga Tabung Haji (%) 7.8 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 27.7 21.5 17.8 21.4 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (%) 7.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 31 (23) (17) 20 Free Float (%) 33.8 Diluted EPS (sen) 28.9 21.5 17.8 21.4 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,564 Net DPS (sen) 16.0 10.7 8.9 10.7 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 180.1 175.8 184.8 195.5 PE (X) 10.6 14.3 17.2 14.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 11.0 14.3 17.2 14.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 15.0 13.9 8.9 9.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.5 8.3 9.0 8.0 Net Div Yield (%) 5.2 3.5 2.9 3.5 P/Book Value (X) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 CASH CASH ROAE (%) 16.6 12.1 9.9 11.3 Earnings Rev (%): (1.6) (11.7) 1.2 Consensus EPS (sen): 15.6 18.9 20.8 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 12,568 16,823 16,187 17,114 Net Fixed Assets 5,683 5,829 5,968 6,100 Cost of Goods Sold (11,690) (14,285) (13,850) (14,568) Invts in Associates & JVs 919 842 772 710 Gross Profit 878 2,537 2,337 2,547 Other LT Assets 5,232 4,646 4,646 4,646 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc 600 (1,203) (1,158) (1,211) Cash & ST Invts 5,029 4,045 4,364 4,515 Operating Profit 1,478 1,334 1,179 1,335 Inventory 1,740 1,428 1,385 1,457 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,352 1,402 1,349 1,426 Associates & JV Inc (2) (77) (69) (62) Other Current Assets 768 1,180 1,146 1,201 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 61 (66) (90) (82) Total Assets 20,722 19,373 19,630 20,054 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 42 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,578 1,191 1,020 1,191 ST Debt 1,638 1,638 1,638 1,638 Tax (399) (299) (262) (303) Other Current Liab 2,506 1,499 1,457 1,520 Minority Interest (126) (109) (107) (107) LT Debt 2,486 2,486 2,486 2,486 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 5,146 4,851 4,718 4,581 Net Profit 1,053 783 650 781 Shareholder’s Equity 6,571 6,415 6,740 7,131 Net Profit before Except. 1,011 783 650 781 Minority Interests 2,375 2,484 2,591 2,698 EBITDA 1,102 1,648 1,510 1,679 Total Cap. & Liab. 20,722 19,373 19,630 20,054 Sales Gth (%) (2.5) 33.9 (3.8) 5.7 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,354 2,511 2,423 2,563 EBITDA Gth (%) (13.6) 49.5 (8.4) 11.2 Net Cash/(Debt) 905 (78) 240 391 Opg Profit Gth (%) 54.4 (9.7) (11.6) 13.2 Net Profit Gth (%) 36.1 (25.6) (16.9) 20.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.3 25.1 25.7 25.4 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,607 1,191 1,020 1,191 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 99 114 130 144 Plantations 10,394 10,263 9,705 10,395 Tax Paid (367) (266) (230) (270) Sugar 1,327 2,377 2,334 2,322 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 2 77 69 62 Downstream 847 820 827 833 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (796) (482) 96 (143) Others 0 3,363 3,322 3,564 Other Operating CF 200 167 167 167 Total 12,568 16,823 16,187 17,114 Net Operating CF 745 801 1,253 1,151 Capital Exp.(net) (208) (261) (269) (275) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 1,799 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (2,794) 596 (2) (2) Net Investing CF (1,203) 336 (271) (278) Div Paid (1,113) (560) (325) (390) Chg in Gross Debt 1,050 0 0 0 Capital Issues (40) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (99) (1,560) (338) (332) Net Financing CF (202) (2,120) (663) (723) Net Cashflow (659) (984) 319 151

Source: Company, AllianceDBS

53

73

93

113

133

153

173

193

213

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.7

Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14

Relative IndexRM

Felda Global Ventures (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


First Resources

First Resources (BUY, upgraded from HOLD; S$1.90; FR SP; Price Target : S$ 2.14) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 626 717 738 888 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,584 EBITDA 362 315 317 361 Pre-tax Profit 314 263 268 322 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 3.02 / 2,357 Net Profit 238 197 201 242 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 238 197 201 242 Lizant Investment (%) 71.2 EPS (S cts) 19 16 16 19 Infinite Capital Fund Ltd (%) 9.1 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 19 16 16 19 (%) 0.0 EPS Gth (%) 0 (17) 2 20 Free Float (%) 19.7 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 0 (17) 2 20 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 2,212 Diluted EPS (S cts) 19 16 16 19 Net DPS (S cts) 4 5 4 5 BV Per Share (S cts) 80 91 103 118 PE (X) 9.9 11.9 11.7 9.8 PE Pre Ex. (X) 9.9 11.9 11.7 9.8 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.6 15.3 9.7 8.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 7.2 8.0 7.5 6.1 Net Div Yield (%) 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 P/Book Value (X) 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.1 CASH CASH Earnings Rev (%): (2.2) (10.8) (5.0) Consensus EPS (S cts): 0 0 0 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 626 717 738 888 Net Fixed Assets 303 282 264 253 Cost of Goods Sold (245) (359) (373) (443) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 382 358 365 445 Other LT Assets 1,067 1,040 1,051 1,062 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (41) (77) (81) (120) Cash & ST Invts 272 441 602 779 Operating Profit 341 281 283 325 Inventory 59 86 89 106 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (9) (1) (2) (3) Debtors 42 44 45 55 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 37 73 76 91 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (17) (13) 0 Total Assets 1,780 1,966 2,127 2,346 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 314 263 268 322 ST Debt 3 0 0 324 Tax (67) (58) (59) (71) Other Current Liab 78 117 122 145 Minority Interest (8) (8) (8) (10) LT Debt 487 558 558 234 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 173 101 102 102 Net Profit 238 197 201 242 Shareholder’s Equity 993 1,134 1,283 1,468 Net Profit before Except. 238 197 201 242 Minority Interests 47 55 63 72 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 217 197 201 242 Total Cap. & Liab. 1,780 1,966 2,127 2,346 EBITDA 362 315 317 361 Sales Gth (%) 3.8 14.5 2.9 20.4 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 60 86 89 106 EBITDA Gth (%) (2.6) (12.9) 0.8 13.7 Net Cash/(Debt) (218) (117) 44 221 Opg Profit Gth (%) 2.2 (17.5) 0.9 14.7 Net Profit Gth (%) 0.5 (17.1) 1.7 20.2 Effective Tax Rate (%) 21.5 22.0 22.0 22.0 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 314 263 268 322 Revenues (US$m) Dep. & Amort. 30 35 36 38 CPO 538 453 485 607 Tax Paid (67) (58) (59) (71) Palm kernel 45 67 63 72 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Olein, RBDPO, biodesel 210 488 505 562 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 5 (26) (3) (17) PKO 26 38 34 35 Other Operating CF (59) (61) 0 0 Others (192) (329) (348) (388) Net Operating CF 223 154 242 272 Total 626 717 738 888 Capital Exp.(net) (190) 3 (29) (38) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (12) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF 203 1 (1) (2) Net Investing CF 1 3 (30) (39) Div Paid (51) (57) (52) (56) Chg in Gross Debt (48) 68 0 0 Capital Issues (302) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 45 1 1 1 Net Financing CF (356) 12 (52) (56) Currency Adjustments 0 0 0 0

Source: Company, DBS Bank


Genting Plantations

Genting Plantations (BUY; RM10.00; GENP MK; Price Target : RM 12.35; Prev. TP: RM 12.60) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 1,384 1,439 1,513 1,775 Issued Capital (m shrs) 770 EBITDA 314 436 452 561 Pre-tax Profit 300 422 435 543 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 7,695 / 2,359 Net Profit 228 325 335 418 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 228 325 335 418 Genting Berhad (%) 52.9 EPS (sen) 30.0 42.8 44.2 55.0 Employees Provident Fund Board (%) 15.6 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 30.0 42.8 44.2 55.0 Kumpulan Wang Persarran (%) 5.6 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (30) 42 3 25 Free Float (%) 25.9 Diluted EPS (sen) 30.0 42.8 44.2 55.0 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 523 Net DPS (sen) 6.6 9.4 9.7 12.1 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 451.5 506.6 541.3 585.9 PE (X) 33.3 23.4 22.6 18.2 PE Pre Ex. (X) 33.3 23.4 22.6 18.2 P/Cash Flow (X) 22.8 22.1 20.6 17.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 24.5 17.4 17.0 13.6 Net Div Yield (%) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 P/Book Value (X) 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 6.7 8.9 8.4 9.8 Earnings Rev (%): (10.0) (8.8) (0.8) Consensus EPS (sen): 46.3 55.2 66.5 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 1,384 1,439 1,513 1,775 Net Fixed Assets 1,110 1,281 1,475 1,682 Cost of Goods Sold (858) (913) (971) (1,109) Invts in Associates & JVs 62 87 113 145 Gross Profit 526 526 543 666 Other LT Assets 2,284 2,393 2,502 2,600 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (267) (148) (154) (174) Cash & ST Invts 931 1,031 962 949 Operating Profit 260 378 388 491 Inventory 89 115 121 138 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 234 204 214 249 Associates & JV Inc 18 25 26 32 Other Current Assets 144 144 144 145 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 23 18 21 19 Total Assets 4,854 5,255 5,531 5,908 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 300 422 435 543 ST Debt 7 7 7 7 Tax (80) (105) (109) (136) Other Current Liab 323 314 335 385 Minority Interest 8 8 9 11 LT Debt 861 861 861 861 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 60 60 60 60 Net Profit 228 325 335 418 Shareholder’s Equity 3,426 3,844 4,107 4,446 Net Profit before Except. 228 325 335 418 Minority Interests 178 169 161 150 EBITDA 314 436 452 561 Total Cap. & Liab. 4,854 5,255 5,531 5,908 Sales Gth (%) 12.2 4.0 5.2 17.3 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 144 149 144 148 EBITDA Gth (%) (22.7) 38.8 3.5 24.3 Net Cash/(Debt) 63 163 94 81 Opg Profit Gth (%) (28.5) 45.6 2.8 26.4 Net Profit Gth (%) (27.5) 42.5 3.3 24.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 300 422 435 543 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 55 58 63 70 Plantation 1,080 1,195 1,250 1,499 Tax Paid (80) (105) (109) (136) Property 271 244 263 276 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (18) (25) (26) (32) Others 34 0 0 0 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 18 (2) 5 (4) Other Operating CF 58 (3) 0 1 Total 1,384 1,439 1,513 1,775 Net Operating CF 332 344 369 441 Capital Exp.(net) (393) (337) (366) (375) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Plantation 298 419 428 533 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 76 81 88 92 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Others (110) (116) (122) (128) Other Investing CF (8) 0 0 0 Net Investing CF (401) (337) (366) (375) Total 265 384 395 497 Div Paid (60) (56) (72) (79) Chg in Gross Debt 159 0 0 0 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Plantation 27.6 35.0 34.3 35.5 Other Financing CF (151) 150 0 0 Property 28.3 33.3 33.4 33.5 Net Financing CF (52) 94 (72) (79) Net Cashflow (120) 100 (69) (13) Total 19.1 26.7 26.1 28.0


75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

6.1

7.1

8.1

9.1

10.1

11.1

12.1


Relative IndexRM

Genting Plantations (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


Golden Agri Resources

Golden Agri Resources (NOT RATED; S$0.48; GGR SP; Price Target : S$ 0.51; Prev. TP: S$ 0.54) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 6,585 6,175 6,185 6,826 Issued Capital (m shrs) 12,838 EBITDA 616 659 728 962 Pre-tax Profit 430 416 460 675 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 6,162 / 4,825 Net Profit 311 308 340 499 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 284 308 340 499 Massingham Int’l Ltd (%) 36.5 EPS (S cts) 3.3 3.2 3.6 5.3 Golden Moment Ltd (%) 7.2 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 3.0 3.2 3.6 5.3 Silchester Int’l Investors (%) 7.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (28) 8 11 47 Free Float (%) 49.3 Diluted EPS (S cts) 3.3 3.2 3.6 5.3 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 26,416 Net DPS (S cts) 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 Price Relative BV Per Share (S cts) 91.8 94.2 96.9 100.9 PE (X) 14.7 14.8 13.4 9.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 16.0 14.8 13.4 9.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 387.3 5.7 8.7 7.3 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.2 10.3 9.3 6.9 Net Div Yield (%) 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.5 P/Book Value (X) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 3.6 3.5 3.7 5.3 Earnings Rev (%): (8.0) (14.2) (1.9) Consensus EPS (S cts): 3.2 4.1 4.9 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 6,585 6,175 6,185 6,826 Net Fixed Assets 2,351 2,567 2,750 2,895 Cost of Goods Sold (5,222) (4,955) (4,909) (5,136) Invts in Associates & JVs 16 16 16 16 Gross Profit 1,363 1,220 1,276 1,691 Other LT Assets 9,243 9,478 9,532 9,594 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (847) (716) (728) (934) Cash & ST Invts 327 546 572 757 Operating Profit 516 504 548 757 Inventory 772 732 726 759 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (33) 0 0 0 Debtors 1,180 909 911 1,005 Associates & JV Inc (1) 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 259 259 259 259 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (89) (87) (88) (81) Total Assets 14,148 14,508 14,767 15,286 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 37 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 430 416 460 675 ST Debt 1,060 761 767 1,229 Tax (114) (104) (115) (169) Other Current Liab 824 842 835 876 Minority Interest (5) (4) (5) (7) LT Debt 1,521 1,924 1,920 1,541 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 1,940 1,942 1,945 1,948 Net Profit 311 308 340 499 Shareholder’s Equity 8,721 8,951 9,208 9,592 Net Profit before Except. 284 308 340 499 Minority Interests 83 87 92 99 EBITDA 616 659 728 962 Total Cap. & Liab. 14,148 14,508 14,767 15,286 Sales Gth (%) 8.8 (6.2) 0.2 10.4 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,387 1,059 1,061 1,148 EBITDA Gth (%) (19.9) 6.9 10.6 32.1 Net Cash/(Debt) (2,253) (2,139) (2,114) (2,013) Opg Profit Gth (%) (21.9) (2.4) 8.9 38.0 Net Profit Gth (%) (24.0) (1.1) 10.5 46.8 Effective Tax Rate (%) 26.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 430 416 460 675 Revenues (US$ m) Dep. & Amort. 134 155 180 205 CPO 2,520 2,087 2,050 2,288 Tax Paid (114) (104) (115) (169) Palm kernel 22 27 27 28 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 1 0 0 0 RBD Olein 1,519 1,653 1,716 1,989 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (393) 328 (2) (86) Soybean products 1,253 1,003 1,007 998 Other Operating CF (46) 0 0 0 Others 1,272 1,403 1,386 1,522 Net Operating CF 12 795 523 625 Total 6,585 6,175 6,185 6,826 Capital Exp.(net) (676) (428) (417) (410) Other Invts.(net) (144) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV (4) 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (2) 0 0 (1) Net Investing CF (826) (428) (417) (411) Div Paid (122) (77) (83) (116) Chg in Gross Debt 726 105 1 84 Capital Issues 4 0 0 0 Other Financing CF (27) (175) 3 3 Net Financing CF 582 (148) (79) (29) Net Cashflow (232) 219 26 185


64

84

104

124

144

164

184

204

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9


Relative IndexS$

Golden Agri Resources (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


IJM Plantations

IJM Plantations (HOLD; RM3.23; IJMP MK; Price Target : RM 3.60) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Mar (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 647 783 773 886 Issued Capital (m shrs) 826 EBITDA 224 265 235 292 Pre-tax Profit 109 181 154 204 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 2,667 / 818 Net Profit 89 139 118 156 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 109 139 118 156 IJM Corporation Bhd (%) 53.3 EPS (sen) 11.1 17.3 14.8 19.5 Employees Provident Fund Board (%) 12.8 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 13.7 17.3 14.8 19.5 Desa Plus Sdn Bhd (%) 4.5 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (8) 27 (15) 32 Free Float (%) 29.4 Diluted EPS (sen) 11.1 17.3 14.8 19.5 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 798 Net DPS (sen) 5.5 8.7 7.4 9.7 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 172.7 184.3 190.5 202.5 PE (X) 29.2 18.7 21.9 16.6 PE Pre Ex. (X) 23.7 18.7 21.9 16.6 P/Cash Flow (X) 20.7 37.0 14.7 14.1 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.8 11.3 12.9 10.3 Net Div Yield (%) 1.7 2.7 2.3 3.0 P/Book Value (X) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 ROAE (%) 6.4 9.7 7.9 9.9 Earnings Rev (%): (0.6) (9.5) (0.8) Consensus EPS (sen): 16.3 19.8 23.3 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 647 783 773 886 Net Fixed Assets 822 884 940 993 Cost of Goods Sold (425) (509) (520) (563) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 222 273 253 323 Other LT Assets 880 1,044 1,060 1,077 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (48) (62) (76) (93) Cash & ST Invts 344 39 84 66 Operating Profit 174 211 177 230 Inventory 80 117 120 129 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 93 99 98 112 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 7 7 7 6 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (44) (31) (22) (26) Total Assets 2,226 2,190 2,309 2,383 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (21) 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 109 181 154 204 ST Debt 138 0 100 100 Tax (26) (45) (39) (51) Other Current Liab 69 114 116 126 Minority Interest 6 3 3 3 LT Debt 473 449 427 405 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 163 155 148 140 Net Profit 89 139 118 156 Shareholder’s Equity 1,385 1,478 1,527 1,624 Net Profit before Except. 109 139 118 156 Minority Interests (3) (6) (9) (12) EBITDA 224 265 235 292 Total Cap. & Liab. 2,226 2,190 2,309 2,384 Sales Gth (%) 33.0 21.0 (1.2) 14.6 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 110 109 107 122 EBITDA Gth (%) 11.4 18.3 (11.3) 24.5 Net Cash/(Debt) (267) (410) (443) (440) Opg Profit Gth (%) 9.1 21.4 (16.2) 30.1 Net Profit Gth (%) (25.9) 56.6 (14.7) 31.7 Effective Tax Rate (%) 23.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Mar 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Pre-Tax Profit 109 181 154 204 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 50 54 58 62 CPO 547 668 678 786 Tax Paid (26) (45) (39) (51) CPKO 67 93 75 80 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 PK cake 9 14 13 13 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (7) (121) 3 (32) Others 24 7 7 7 Other Operating CF 0 2 0 1 Net Operating CF 125 70 177 183 Total 647 783 773 886 Capital Exp.(net) (197) (162) (135) (117) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF 1 3 3 3 Net Investing CF (196) (159) (132) (114) Div Paid (56) (44) (69) (59) Chg in Gross Debt 98 (162) 78 (21) Capital Issues (41) (1) 0 0 Other Financing CF (10) (8) (8) (7) Net Financing CF (9) (216) 0 (88) Net Cashflow (79) (305) 45 (18)

Source: Company, AllianceDBS

81

101

121

141

161

181

201

221

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2


Relative IndexRM

IJM Plantations (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri Resources (BUY, upgraded from HOLD; S$0.82; IFAR SP; Price Target : S$ 0.98; Prev. TP: S$0.97) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 13,280 15,701 16,318 18,816 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,417 EBITDA 2,475 4,102 4,088 5,594 Pre-tax Profit 1,338 2,867 2,794 4,271 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 1.15 / 904 Net Profit 550 1,183 1,152 1,762 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 550 1,183 1,152 1,762 Indofood Singapore (%) 70.4 EPS (S cts) 4 9 9 13 Free Float (%) 29.0 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 4 9 9 13 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,552 EPS Gth (%) (49) 115 (3) 53 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (49) 115 (3) 53 Diluted EPS (S cts) 4 9 9 13 Price Relative Net DPS (S cts) 0 0 0 0 BV Per Share (S cts) 104 113 122 135 PE (X) 20.0 9.3 9.6 6.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.0 9.3 9.6 6.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 6.9 4.4 3.9 2.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.0 6.3 6.4 4.7 Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/Book Value (X) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 ROAE (%) 4.0 8.1 7.3 10.2 Earnings Rev (%): 1.4 (4.1) 5.4 Consensus EPS (S cts): 0 0 0 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 13,280 15,701 16,318 18,816 Net Fixed Assets 9,781 10,520 11,184 11,779 Cost of Goods Sold (10,076) (10,904) (11,370) (12,216) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 3,204 4,796 4,947 6,600 Other LT Assets 20,986 21,774 22,642 23,519 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,506) (1,540) (1,834) (2,026) Cash & ST Invts 3,803 2,065 1,346 1,818 Operating Profit 1,698 3,257 3,113 4,574 Inventory 1,568 1,871 1,951 2,096 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,140 1,290 1,341 1,546 Associates & JV Inc (6) 62 94 60 Other Current Assets 427 409 426 470 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (354) (451) (414) (364) Total Assets 37,705 37,929 38,889 41,227 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,338 2,867 2,794 4,271 ST Debt 4,490 2,973 2,973 2,973 Tax (380) (717) (698) (1,068) Other Current Liab 2,015 2,143 2,234 2,400 Minority Interest (408) (968) (943) (1,441) LT Debt 4,305 3,971 2,937 2,089 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 4,062 3,859 3,666 3,483 Net Profit 550 1,183 1,152 1,762 Shareholder’s Equity 14,007 15,190 16,343 18,104 Net Profit before Except. 550 1,183 1,152 1,762 Minority Interests 8,826 9,794 10,737 12,178 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 503 1,183 1,152 1,762 Total Cap. & Liab. 37,705 37,929 38,889 41,227 EBITDA 2,475 4,102 4,088 5,594 Sales Gth (%) (4.1) 18.2 3.9 15.3 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,121 1,427 1,483 1,711 EBITDA Gth (%) (25.3) 65.7 (0.3) 36.8 Net Cash/(Debt) (4,992) (4,878) (4,563) (3,244) Opg Profit Gth (%) (38.6) 91.8 (4.4) 46.9 Net Profit Gth (%) (49.1) 114.9 (2.6) 52.9 Effective Tax Rate (%) 28.4 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,338 2,867 2,794 4,271 Revenues (Rpm) Dep. & Amort. 783 783 881 959 Plantations 4,183 5,160 5,268 5,900 Tax Paid (380) (717) (698) (1,068) Cooking Oil & Fats 8,235 9,544 9,937 11,731 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Commodities and 142 194 158 151 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 170 (306) (56) (228) Others 720 803 954 1,034 Other Operating CF (252) (122) (117) (113) Net Operating CF 1,598 2,506 2,803 3,820 Total 13,280 15,701 16,318 18,816 Capital Exp.(net) (3,349) (2,185) (2,251) (2,303) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (1,383) (102) (136) (103) Net Investing CF (4,732) (2,287) (2,387) (2,406) Div Paid 0 0 0 0 Chg in Gross Debt 2,015 (1,851) (1,034) (848) Capital Issues (165) 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 5 (106) (100) (95) Net Financing CF 1,855 (1,956) (1,135) (943) Source: Company, DBS Bank

26

46

66

86

106

126

146

166

186

206

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2


Relative IndexS$

Indofood Agri Resources (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)


IOI Corporation

IOI Corporation (HOLD; RM4.65; IOI MK; Price Target : RM 4.30; Prev. TP: RM 4.65) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Jun (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 11,911 14,030 14,438 14,406 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,362 EBITDA 2,501 2,506 2,581 2,555 Pre-tax Profit 3,924 2,006 2,130 2,098 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 29,582 / 9,070 Net Profit 3,373 1,510 1,613 1,558 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,486 1,510 1,613 1,558 Vertical Capacity Sdn Bhd (%) 46.2 EPS (sen) 52.8 23.6 25.2 24.4 Employees Provident Fund Board (%) 9.1 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 23.2 23.6 25.2 24.4 Free Float (%) 44.7 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (31) 2 7 (3) Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 6,547 Diluted EPS (sen) 51.9 23.2 24.8 24.0 Net DPS (sen) 21.5 11.5 12.3 11.9 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 93.8 98.3 111.5 123.6 PE (X) 8.8 19.7 18.4 19.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.0 19.7 18.4 19.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 9.3 21.8 18.3 17.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.4 13.4 12.7 12.6 Net Div Yield (%) 4.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 P/Book Value (X) 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 ROAE (%) 34.3 24.4 23.9 20.6 Earnings Rev (%): (7.9) (3.6) N/A Consensus EPS (sen): 22.0 24.0 24.8 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 11,911 14,030 14,438 14,406 Net Fixed Assets 6,410 6,346 6,331 6,300 Cost of Goods Sold (9,227) (11,123) (11,726) (11,761) Invts in Associates & JVs 920 1,080 1,255 1,452 Gross Profit 2,684 2,907 2,711 2,646 Other LT Assets 616 616 617 618 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (906) (807) (568) (570) Cash & ST Invts 3,988 2,525 3,017 3,658 Operating Profit 2,117 2,100 2,143 2,076 Inventory 2,155 2,019 2,128 2,134 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,102 1,605 1,652 1,648 Associates & JV Inc 160 159 173 195 Other Current Assets 142 144 145 146 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (240) (252) (186) (172) Total Assets 15,332 14,335 15,145 15,955 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 1,887 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 3,924 2,006 2,130 2,098 ST Debt 2,454 489 489 489 Tax (534) (481) (502) (525) Other Current Liab 1,043 1,159 1,216 1,219 Minority Interest (17) (15) (16) (15) LT Debt 5,069 5,610 5,486 5,486 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 533 543 554 565 Net Profit 3,373 1,510 1,613 1,558 Shareholder’s Equity 6,037 6,323 7,173 7,954 Net Profit before Except. 1,486 1,510 1,613 1,558 Minority Interests 196 211 227 242 EBITDA 2,501 2,506 2,581 2,555 Total Cap. & Liab. 15,332 14,335 15,145 15,955 Sales Gth (%) (2.4) 17.8 2.9 (0.2) Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 2,356 2,608 2,709 2,709 EBITDA Gth (%) (16.3) 0.2 3.0 (1.0) Net Cash/(Debt) (3,536) (3,573) (2,958) (2,317) Opg Profit Gth (%) (16.8) (0.8) 2.1 (3.1) Net Profit Gth (%) 55.6 (55.2) 6.8 (3.4) Effective Tax Rate (%) 13.6 24.0 23.5 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Pre-Tax Profit 3,924 2,006 2,130 2,098 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 224 248 265 284 Plantation 260 277 278 277 Tax Paid (534) (481) (502) (525) Property 0 0 0 0 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (160) (159) (173) (195) Resource-based 11,585 13,686 14,092 14,060 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (248) (251) (99) 1 Others 65 67 68 69 Other Operating CF (10) (1) (1) (1) Net Operating CF 3,196 1,361 1,620 1,663 Total 11,911 14,030 14,438 14,406 Capital Exp.(net) (1,335) (259) (249) (253) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) (1) 0 0 0 Plantation 1,086 952 986 1,058 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Resource-based 760 679 645 630 Other Investing CF (36) (2) (2) (2) Others 271 469 512 388 Net Investing CF (1,372) (262) (252) (256) Div Paid (8,615) (1,222) (763) (777) Total 2,117 2,100 2,143 2,076 Chg in Gross Debt 199 (1,425) (124) 0 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues (2,362) (2) 0 0 Plantation 49.3 46.5 47.2 48.3 Other Financing CF 9,971 86 11 11 Property N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Financing CF (806) (2,562) (876) (766) Resource-based 6.6 5.0 4.6 4.5 Net Cashflow 1,018 (1,463) 492 641 Total 17.8 15.0 14.8 14.4 Source: Company, DBS Bank

62

82

102

122

142

162

182

202

222

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.7


Relative IndexRM

IOI Corporation (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


KL Kepong

78

98

118

138

158

178

198

218

16.7

18.7

20.7

22.7

24.7

26.7

28.7


Relative IndexRM

KL Kepong (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)

KL Kepong (HOLD; RM20.20; KLK MK; Price Target : RM 21.00) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Sep (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 9,147 11,495 11,189 12,281 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,065 EBITDA 1,561 1,944 1,848 2,010 Pre-tax Profit 1,200 1,546 1,421 1,550 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 21,512 / 6,596 Net Profit 918 1,098 1,007 1,099 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 918 1,092 1,007 1,099 Batu Kawan Bhd (%) 46.6 EPS (sen) 86.0 102.9 94.4 102.9 Employees Provident Fund Board (%) 13.9 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 86.0 102.3 94.4 102.9 Free Float (%) 39.5 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (15) 19 (8) 9 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 660 Diluted EPS (sen) 86.0 102.9 94.4 102.9 Net DPS (sen) 51.6 61.7 56.6 61.8 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 705.7 755.2 788.8 834.2 PE (X) 23.5 19.6 21.4 19.6 PE Pre Ex. (X) 23.5 19.8 21.4 19.6 P/Cash Flow (X) 17.7 20.1 15.0 16.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 14.5 11.7 12.2 11.2 Net Div Yield (%) 2.6 3.1 2.8 3.1 P/Book Value (X) 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 ROAE (%) 12.5 14.1 12.2 12.7 Earnings Rev (%): 3.0 (3.8) (1.5) Consensus EPS (sen): 104.5 110.8 122.9 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Sep 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Sep 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 9,147 11,495 11,189 12,281 Net Fixed Assets 5,637 5,994 6,254 6,471 Cost of Goods Sold (7,198) (9,043) (8,889) (9,759) Invts in Associates & JVs 112 126 140 154 Gross Profit 1,950 2,451 2,300 2,521 Other LT Assets 1,826 1,783 1,742 1,701 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (682) (827) (797) (883) Cash & ST Invts 1,757 1,607 1,818 1,980 Operating Profit 1,267 1,624 1,502 1,638 Inventory 1,062 1,433 1,409 1,547 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 1,217 1,463 1,424 1,563 Associates & JV Inc 13 14 14 14 Other Current Assets 137 137 137 137 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (81) (98) (96) (103) Total Assets 11,748 12,543 12,922 13,553 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 6 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,200 1,546 1,421 1,550 ST Debt 777 758 739 720 Tax (233) (385) (355) (387) Other Current Liab 878 1,101 1,083 1,184 Minority Interest (49) (63) (58) (64) LT Debt 1,558 1,558 1,558 1,558 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 581 581 581 581 Net Profit 918 1,098 1,007 1,099 Shareholder’s Equity 7,534 8,062 8,420 8,905 Net Profit before Except. 918 1,092 1,007 1,099 Minority Interests 419 483 541 605 EBITDA 1,561 1,944 1,848 2,010 Total Cap. & Liab. 11,748 12,543 12,922 13,553 Sales Gth (%) (13.5) 25.7 (2.7) 9.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,538 1,932 1,886 2,062 EBITDA Gth (%) (11.1) 24.6 (5.0) 8.8 Net Cash/(Debt) (578) (709) (479) (298) Opg Profit Gth (%) (14.4) 28.2 (7.5) 9.0 Net Profit Gth (%) (24.2) 19.6 (8.3) 9.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 19.4 24.9 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Sep 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Sep 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,200 1,546 1,421 1,550 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 294 320 345 372 Plantation 4,131 4,446 4,378 4,726 Tax Paid (233) (385) (355) (387) Manufacturing 4,697 6,718 6,450 7,138 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (13) (14) (14) (14) Retailing 0 0 0 0 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 32 (394) 46 (176) Property 209 240 276 317 Other Operating CF (59) 0 0 0 Others 111 91 85 99 Net Operating CF 1,220 1,074 1,442 1,344 Total 9,147 11,495 11,189 12,281 Capital Exp.(net) (979) (670) (598) (582) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) (355) 30 29 28 Plantation 780 1,129 1,077 1,237 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 329 403 322 286 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Retailing 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF 444 5 5 5 Property 81 72 83 95 Net Investing CF (890) (635) (563) (549) Others 20 20 20 21 Div Paid (669) (570) (649) (614) Total 1,211 1,624 1,502 1,638 Chg in Gross Debt (143) (19) (19) (18) EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 193 0 0 0 Plantation 18.9 25.4 24.6 26.2 Other Financing CF (313) 0 0 0 Manufacturing 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Net Financing CF (932) (589) (668) (633) Retailing N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Cashflow (602) (150) 211 163 Property 38.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 Total 13.2 14.1 13.4 13.3 Source: Company, DBS Bank


London Sumatra Indonesia

London Sumatra Indonesia (HOLD, upgraded from FV; Rp1,780; LSIP IJ; Price Target : Rp 1,760; Prev. TP: Rp1,770) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 4,134 4,841 4,903 5,447 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,823 EBITDA 953 1,320 1,204 1,472 Pre-tax Profit 997 1,393 1,290 1,595 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 12,145 / 1,008 Net Profit 769 1,045 968 1,196 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 769 1,045 968 1,196 PT Salim Ivomas Pratama (%) 59.5 EPS (Rp) 113 153 142 175 Free Float (%) 40.5 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 113 153 142 175 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 26,478 EPS Gth (%) (31) 36 (7) 24 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (31) 36 (7) 24 Diluted EPS (Rp) 113 153 142 175 Price Relative Net DPS (Rp) 66 45 61 57 BV Per Share (Rp) 969 1,074 1,154 1,273 PE (X) 15.8 11.6 12.5 10.2 PE Pre Ex. (X) 15.8 11.6 12.5 10.2 P/Cash Flow (X) 9.0 9.5 8.9 7.4 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.3 8.0 8.6 6.6 Net Div Yield (%) 3.7 2.5 3.5 3.2 P/Book Value (X) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 11.9 15.0 12.7 14.5 Earnings Rev (%): 4.1 (0.8) 4.0 Consensus EPS (Rp): 156 167 187 Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 4,134 4,841 4,903 5,447 Net Fixed Assets 2,777 3,131 3,320 3,404 Cost of Goods Sold (2,880) (3,169) (3,346) (3,612) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 1,253 1,671 1,556 1,836 Other LT Assets 3,199 3,330 3,512 3,642 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (228) (286) (293) (311) Cash & ST Invts 1,401 1,568 1,789 2,429 Operating Profit 1,026 1,385 1,263 1,525 Inventory 374 561 593 640 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (73) (66) (59) (53) Debtors 117 99 100 111 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 106 117 120 132 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 44 74 86 123 Total Assets 7,975 8,806 9,435 10,359 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 997 1,393 1,290 1,595 ST Debt 0 0 0 0 Tax (228) (348) (323) (399) Other Current Liab 804 891 932 1,012 Minority Interest 1 0 0 0 LT Debt 0 0 0 0 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 556 591 630 666 Net Profit 769 1,045 968 1,196 Shareholder’s Equity 6,614 7,324 7,873 8,681 Net Profit before Except. 769 1,045 968 1,196 Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 769 1,045 968 1,196 Total Cap. & Liab. 7,975 8,806 9,435 10,359 EBITDA 953 1,320 1,204 1,472 Sales Gth (%) (1.8) 17.1 1.3 11.1 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (207) (114) (119) (129) EBITDA Gth (%) (26.0) 38.5 (8.8) 22.2 Net Cash/(Debt) 1,401 1,568 1,789 2,429 Opg Profit Gth (%) (22.5) 35.0 (8.8) 20.7 Net Profit Gth (%) (31.1) 35.8 (7.4) 23.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 22.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 997 1,393 1,290 1,595 Revenues (Rpbn) Dep. & Amort. 289 294 345 390 Crude palm oil 3,154 3,768 3,838 4,365 Tax Paid (228) (348) (323) (399) Palm kernel 351 589 579 582 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Rubber 340 283 277 270 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 209 (93) 6 10 Seeds 232 121 130 151 Other Operating CF 0 0 0 0 Others 56 81 79 79 Net Operating CF 1,345 1,281 1,357 1,632 Total 4,134 4,841 4,903 5,447 Capital Exp.(net) (1,090) (814) (735) (611) Other Invts.(net) (207) 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (10) 34 19 7 Net Investing CF (1,306) (780) (717) (604) Div Paid (450) (309) (419) (388) Chg in Gross Debt 0 0 0 0 Capital Issues 14 (26) 0 0 Other Financing CF 0 0 0 0 Net Financing CF (436) (335) (419) (388) Source: Company, DBS Bank

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

900.0

1,400.0

1,900.0

2,400.0

2,900.0

3,400.0


Relative IndexRp

London Sumatra Indonesia (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Sampoerna Agro

Sampoerna Agro (HOLD Rp1,840; SGRO IJ; Price Target : Rp 2,020; Prev. TP: Rp 1,960) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (Rp m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue 2,561 3,440 3,632 3,957 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,890 EBITDA 445 821 868 1,067 Pre-tax Profit 174 493 503 671 Mkt. Cap (Rpm/US$m) 3,525 / 289 Net Profit 119 348 373 498 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 119 348 373 498 Sampoerna Agri Resources (%) 67.1 EPS (Rp) 63 184 198 263 Free Float (%) 32.9 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 63 184 198 263 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 553 EPS Gth (%) (64) 192 7 33 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (64) 192 7 33 Diluted EPS (Rp) 63 184 198 263 Price Relative Net DPS (Rp) 45 16 48 51 BV Per Share (Rp) 1,410 1,578 1,728 1,941 PE (X) 29.2 10.0 9.3 7.0 PE Pre Ex. (X) 29.2 10.0 9.3 7.0 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.4 6.3 5.6 4.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.4 5.6 5.3 4.4 Net Div Yield (%) 2.4 0.9 2.6 2.8 P/Book Value (X) 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 ROAE (%) 4.5 12.3 11.9 14.4 Earnings Rev (%): 6.0 13.2 13.5 Consensus EPS (Rp): 178 217 248 Income Statement (Rp m) Balance Sheet (Rp m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 2,561 3,440 3,632 3,957 Net Fixed Assets 1,401 1,444 1,486 1,523 Cost of Goods Sold (2,063) (2,538) (2,680) (2,831) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 498 902 952 1,126 Other LT Assets 2,383 2,599 2,854 3,267 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (262) (312) (344) (344) Cash & ST Invts 163 121 420 351 Operating Profit 236 591 608 782 Inventory 272 398 420 444 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 223 203 214 233 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets 71 64 68 73 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (62) (98) (105) (111) Total Assets 4,513 4,829 5,462 5,890 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 174 493 503 671 ST Debt 306 289 219 219 Tax (53) (141) (126) (168) Other Current Liab 387 450 475 506 Minority Interest (1) (4) (4) (5) LT Debt 991 936 1,321 1,306 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 129 134 139 145 Net Profit 119 348 373 498 Shareholder’s Equity 2,666 2,983 3,266 3,668 Net Profit before Except. 119 348 373 498 Minority Interests 33 37 41 46 Net Pft (ex. BA gains) 119 348 373 498 Total Cap. & Liab. 4,513 4,829 5,462 5,890 EBITDA 445 821 868 1,067 Sales Gth (%) (14.2) 34.3 5.6 9.0 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 178 214 227 243 EBITDA Gth (%) (34.7) 84.6 5.7 23.0 Net Cash/(Debt) (1,135) (1,104) (1,120) (1,175) Opg Profit Gth (%) (51.4) 150.0 2.9 28.7 Net Profit Gth (%) (63.8) 192.2 7.3 33.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 30.7 28.6 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 174 493 503 671 Revenues (Rpm) Dep. & Amort. 208 230 260 285 CPO 2,139 2,880 3,081 3,403 Tax Paid (53) (141) (126) (168) PK 271 466 449 444 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 Germinated Seeds 53 61 67 75 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 7 (31) (15) (22) Others 97 33 34 36 Other Operating CF 0 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 336 551 622 766 Total 2,561 3,440 3,632 3,957 Capital Exp.(net) (577) (534) (576) (741) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Other Investing CF (126) 38 21 10 Net Investing CF (704) (496) (556) (731) Div Paid (85) (31) (90) (96) Chg in Gross Debt 356 (72) 316 (15) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 34 7 7 8 Net Financing CF 305 (96) 233 (104) Source: Company, DBS Bank

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

1,386.0

1,886.0

2,386.0

2,886.0

3,386.0

3,886.0


Relative IndexRp

Sampoerna Agro (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)


Sime Darby

Sime Darby (HOLD RM9.13; SIME MK; Price Target : RM 9.75; Prev. TP: RM 9.80) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Jun (RM m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 43,908 45,391 47,604 50,050 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,064 EBITDA 5,537 5,989 6,413 7,067 Pre-tax Profit 4,228 4,326 4,662 5,296 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 55,365 / 16,976 Net Profit 3,353 3,090 3,330 3,783 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 3,089 3,090 3,330 3,783 Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera (%) 37.8 EPS (sen) 55.3 51.0 54.9 62.4 Employees Provident Fund Board (%) 14.4 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 50.9 51.0 54.9 62.4 Permodalan Nasional Berhad (%) 9.1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (5) 0 8 14 Free Float (%) 38.7 Diluted EPS (sen) 55.3 51.0 54.9 62.4 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 5,032 Net DPS (sen) 27.6 25.5 27.5 31.2 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 471.4 494.7 524.2 559.1 PE (X) 16.5 17.9 16.6 14.6 PE Pre Ex. (X) 17.9 17.9 16.6 14.6 P/Cash Flow (X) 20.0 11.5 12.8 12.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.4 10.5 9.8 8.9 Net Div Yield (%) 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.4 P/Book Value (X) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROAE (%) 11.7 10.3 10.5 11.2 Earnings Rev (%): (1.3) (1.6) (2.0) Consensus EPS (sen): 53.0 58.0 63.6 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 43,908 45,391 47,604 50,050 Net Fixed Assets 14,061 14,999 15,918 16,801 Cost of Goods Sold (41,163) (42,319) (44,263) (46,334) Invts in Associates & JVs 3,123 3,261 3,413 3,752 Gross Profit 2,745 3,073 3,341 3,716 Other LT Assets 8,678 9,167 9,346 9,526 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc 1,374 1,408 1,443 1,479 Cash & ST Invts 4,382 3,440 4,538 4,019 Operating Profit 4,119 4,481 4,784 5,195 Inventory 9,470 9,347 9,777 10,234 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 6,559 6,521 6,839 7,191 Associates & JV Inc 100 138 152 339 Other Current Assets 4,588 4,702 4,820 4,940 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (254) (293) (275) (238) Total Assets 50,861 51,439 54,651 56,464 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 263 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 4,228 4,326 4,662 5,296 ST Debt 3,045 1,811 2,720 2,874 Tax (708) (1,082) (1,165) (1,324) Other Current Liab 8,977 9,293 9,687 10,107 Minority Interest (168) (155) (167) (189) LT Debt 8,130 8,154 8,122 7,066 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 1,272 1,176 1,164 1,153 Net Profit 3,353 3,090 3,330 3,783 Shareholder’s Equity 28,589 30,002 31,787 33,905 Net Profit before Except. 2,826 3,090 3,330 3,783 Minority Interests 849 1,003 1,170 1,359 EBITDA 5,537 5,989 6,413 7,067 Total Cap. & Liab. 50,861 51,439 54,651 56,464 Sales Gth (%) (4.8) 3.4 4.9 5.1 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 11,640 11,278 11,749 12,259 EBITDA Gth (%) (6.0) 8.2 7.1 10.2 Net Cash/(Debt) (6,793) (6,524) (6,305) (5,921) Opg Profit Gth (%) (8.3) 8.8 6.8 8.6 Net Profit Gth (%) (9.4) (7.8) 7.8 13.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 16.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F FY Jun 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Pre-Tax Profit 3,965 4,326 4,662 5,296 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 1,319 1,370 1,477 1,533 Plantations 10,954 10,573 10,843 11,257 Tax Paid (708) (1,082) (1,165) (1,324) Property 2,792 3,324 3,927 4,603 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (100) (138) (152) (339) Industrial 11,665 12,373 13,129 13,939 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1,494) 362 (471) (510) Motor 17,745 18,329 18,874 19,381 Other Operating CF (209) (39) (40) (41) Others 752 791 831 870 Net Operating CF 2,772 4,799 4,310 4,616 Total 43,908 45,391 47,604 50,050 Capital Exp.(net) (2,100) (2,427) (2,451) (2,471) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) 47 (31) (32) (32) Plantations 1,905 1,953 1,966 2,131 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Property 529 688 813 953 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Industrial 998 1,086 1,190 1,269 Other Investing CF 817 (298) (56) (57) Motor 631 663 721 742 Net Investing CF (1,236) (2,755) (2,539) (2,560) Others 57 91 95 100 Div Paid (1,477) (1,676) (1,545) (1,665) Total 4,119 4,481 4,784 5,195 Chg in Gross Debt 1,089 (1,210) 878 (902) EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 306 0 0 0 Plantations 17.4 18.5 18.1 18.9 Other Financing CF (1,167) (99) (7) (7) Property 18.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 Net Financing CF (1,248) (2,985) (674) (2,574) Industrial 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.1 Net Cashflow 288 (941) 1,097 (518) Motor 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 Total 9.4 9.9 10.1 10.4 Source: Company, DBS Bank

74

94

114

134

154

174

194

214

6.9

7.4

7.9

8.4

8.9

9.4

9.9

10.4

10.9


Relative IndexRM

Sime Darby (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


TSH Resources

TSH Resources

(BUY; RM2.27; TSH MK; Price Target : RM 2.55; Prev. TP: RM2.67*) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 1,016 1,238 1,345 1,584 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,345 EBITDA 173 265 289 343 Pre-tax Profit 154 184 198 244 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 3,053 / 930 Net Profit 141 137 147 181 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 121 137 147 181 Aik Pen Tan (%) 12.1 EPS (sen) 10.5 10.2 11.0 13.4 Tunas Lestari Sdn Bhd (%) 6.4 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 9.0 10.2 11.0 13.4 Embun Yakin Sdn Bhd (%) 5.6 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 27 14 7 23 Free Float (%) 75.9 Diluted EPS (sen) 10.5 10.2 11.0 13.4 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,099 Net DPS (sen) 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.4 Price Relative BV Per Share (sen) 78.9 86.7 95.2 105.9 PE (X) 21.7 22.3 20.7 16.9 PE Pre Ex. (X) 25.4 22.3 20.7 16.9 P/Cash Flow (X) 49.3 23.2 16.5 15.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 22.7 16.1 15.1 13.1 Net Div Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 P/Book Value (X) 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.1 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 ROAE (%) 14.5 12.3 12.1 13.4 Earnings Rev (%): (3.3) (4.7) (1.6) Consensus EPS (sen): 15.9 17.8 18.7 Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 1,016 1,238 1,345 1,584 Net Fixed Assets 1,451 1,816 2,007 2,205 Cost of Goods Sold (715) (825) (874) (1,011) Invts in Associates & JVs 140 150 160 171 Gross Profit 301 414 471 573 Other LT Assets 261 257 252 248 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (177) (199) (235) (288) Cash & ST Invts 143 39 69 101 Operating Profit 124 215 235 286 Inventory 207 249 264 305 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 154 193 210 247 Associates & JV Inc 27 10 10 10 Other Current Assets 11 11 11 11 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (41) (48) (53) Total Assets 2,368 2,714 2,973 3,288 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 21 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 154 184 198 244 ST Debt 406 406 406 406 Tax (7) (31) (35) (44) Other Current Liab 149 168 177 204 Minority Interest (6) (15) (16) (19) LT Debt 518 724 844 969 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 134 134 134 134 Net Profit 141 137 147 181 Shareholder’s Equity 1,061 1,167 1,280 1,424 Net Profit before Except. 121 137 147 181 Minority Interests 100 115 131 151 EBITDA 173 265 289 343 Total Cap. & Liab. 2,368 2,714 2,973 3,288 Sales Gth (%) 3.3 21.9 8.6 17.8 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 224 285 307 359 EBITDA Gth (%) 2.7 53.1 9.0 18.5 Net Cash/(Debt) (781) (1,091) (1,181) (1,274) Opg Profit Gth (%) (0.5) 72.8 9.7 21.4 Net Profit Gth (%) 83.3 (2.8) 7.5 22.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 4.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 Cash Flow Statement (RM m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 133 184 198 244 Revenues (RM m) Dep. & Amort. 49 51 54 57 Oil Palm Plantation 900 1,137 1,256 1,505 Tax Paid (7) (31) (35) (44) Wood Products 51 49 46 44 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (27) (10) (10) (10) Cocoa 65 52 42 35 Chg in Wkg.Cap. 28 (61) (22) (53) Total 1,016 1,238 1,345 1,584 Other Operating CF (115) 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 62 132 185 194 Capital Exp.(net) (278) (410) (241) (251) EBIT (RM m) Other Invts.(net) 85 0 0 0 Oil Palm Plantation 148 223 245 296 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Wood Products (3) (4) (3) (3) Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Cocoa 6 5 4 3 Other Investing CF 50 105 0 0 Total 151 225 246 296 Net Investing CF (142) (305) (241) (251) Div Paid (21) (31) (34) (37) Chg in Gross Debt (52) 205 121 125 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 45 0 0 0 Oil Palm Plantation 16.5 19.6 19.5 19.7 Other Financing CF 92 0 0 0 Wood Products (6.8) (7.7) (7.4) (7.1) Net Financing CF 65 174 86 88 Cocoa 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 Net Cashflow (15) 0 30 32 Total 14.9 18.1 18.3 18.7

* Source: Company, AllianceDBS (* adjusted for bonus)

90

140

190

240

290

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Relative IndexRM

TSH Resources (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)


Wilmar International

Wilmar International (HOLD S$3.12; WIL SP; Price Target : S$ 3.30) Forecasts and Valuation General Data FY Dec (US$ m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Turnover 44,085 48,152 50,945 55,975 Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,399 EBITDA 2,370 2,331 2,607 2,851 Pre-tax Profit 1,775 1,454 1,548 1,488 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 20,026 / 15,632 Net Profit 1,319 1,083 1,148 1,100 Major Shareholders Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,288 1,083 1,148 1,100 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (%) 16.4 EPS (S cts) 26.3 21.6 22.9 21.9 Khoon Hong Kuok (%) 12.0 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 25.7 21.6 22.9 21.9 Longhlin Asia Ltd (%) 5.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 8 (16) 6 (4) Free Float (%) 66.3 Diluted EPS (S cts) 26.3 21.6 22.9 21.9 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 4,537 Net DPS (S cts) 5.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 Price Relative BV Per Share (S cts) 299.3 316.0 334.5 351.9 PE (X) 11.9 14.5 13.7 14.3 PE Pre Ex. (X) 12.2 14.5 13.7 14.3 P/Cash Flow (X) 19.7 12.3 13.5 25.4 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.4 12.7 11.5 10.8 Net Div Yield (%) 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 P/Book Value (X) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 ROAE (%) 9.0 7.0 7.0 6.4 Earnings Rev (%): (8.1) (2.0) (4.7) Consensus EPS (S cts): 22.9 27.7 30.1 Income Statement (US$ m) Balance Sheet (US$ m) FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Turnover 44,085 48,152 50,945 55,975 Net Fixed Assets 9,337 9,806 10,125 10,317 Cost of Goods Sold (40,360) (44,217) (46,677) (51,265) Invts in Associates & JVs 2,035 2,091 2,156 2,213 Gross Profit 3,725 3,935 4,267 4,710 Other LT Assets 7,418 7,528 7,665 7,799 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (2,066) (2,354) (2,492) (2,751) Cash & ST Invts 13,315 10,675 10,544 10,676 Operating Profit 1,659 1,582 1,775 1,958 Inventory 7,221 7,865 8,303 9,119 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Debtors 7,066 7,199 7,616 8,368 Associates & JV Inc 104 55 65 58 Other Current Assets 240 240 240 240 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (183) (293) (528) Total Assets 46,632 45,404 46,649 48,733 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 31 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,775 1,454 1,548 1,488 ST Debt 19,392 19,265 19,363 20,211 Tax (385) (308) (327) (315) Other Current Liab 3,800 4,081 4,191 4,437 Minority Interest (72) (64) (72) (73) LT Debt 6,804 4,480 4,480 4,480 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 750 787 826 868 Net Profit 1,319 1,083 1,148 1,100 Shareholder’s Equity 15,005 15,845 16,770 17,645 Net Profit before Except. 1,288 1,083 1,148 1,100 Minority Interests 882 946 1,018 1,092 EBITDA 2,370 2,331 2,607 2,851 Total Cap. & Liab. 46,632 45,404 46,649 48,733 Sales Gth (%) (3.0) 9.2 5.8 9.9 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 10,727 11,223 11,968 13,289 EBITDA Gth (%) 2.6 (1.7) 11.8 9.4 Net Cash/(Debt) (12,881) (13,070) (13,299) (14,015) Opg Profit Gth (%) 0.9 (4.7) 12.2 10.3 Net Profit Gth (%) 5.1 (17.9) 6.0 (4.2) Effective Tax Rate (%) 21.7 21.2 21.2 21.2 Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F FY Dec 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Pre-Tax Profit 1,775 1,454 1,548 1,488 Revenues (US$ m) Dep. & Amort. 607 694 767 835 M&P 36,012 36,129 37,811 41,654 Tax Paid (385) (308) (327) (315) Plantations 1,466 1,671 1,702 1,871 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (104) (55) (65) (58) Consumer products 7,555 8,646 9,713 10,761 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1,114) (516) (754) (1,316) Others 2,843 2,973 3,110 3,258 Other Operating CF 14 10 (3) (18) Elimination (3,791) (1,267) (1,392) (1,569) Net Operating CF 795 1,278 1,165 617 Total 44,085 48,152 50,945 55,975 Capital Exp.(net) (1,453) (1,228) (1,164) (1,100) EBIT (US$ m) Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 M&P 1,100 706 875 961 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Plantations 270 452 438 470 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Consumer products 222 272 324 395 Other Investing CF 269 (124) (130) (137) Others 94 99 104 109 Net Investing CF (1,184) (1,352) (1,294) (1,236) Elimination (93) (84) (96) (106) Div Paid (281) (243) (222) (225) Total 1,593 1,444 1,645 1,828 Chg in Gross Debt 3,950 (2,451) 98 848 EBIT Margins (%) Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 M&P 3.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 Other Financing CF (108) 48 39 41 Plantations 18.4 27.0 25.7 25.1 Net Financing CF 3,562 (2,645) (85) 664 Consumer products 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 Net Cashflow 3,173 (2,719) (214) 45 Others 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Total 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 Source: Company, DBS Bank

43

63

83

103

123

143

163

183

203

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.7

6.2

6.7

7.2


Relative IndexS$

Wilmar International (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)



DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published,the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 Aug 2014 except for Astra Agro Lestari, London Sumatra, First Resources, Indofood Agri Resources, Golden Agri Resources and Wilmar International

2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 31 Aug 2014.

3.

Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the company mentioned.



DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or

located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is not for distribution into Australia.

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR") (formerly known as HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.

United Kingdom

This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients.

Dubai

This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United States

Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other jurisdictions

In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

DBS Bank Ltd.

12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3

Singapore 018982 Tel. 65-6878 8888

Company Regn. No. 196800306E

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