regional haze modeling rpo update gary kleiman, nescaum national rpo meeting, dallas, tx december 3,...

Regional Haze ModelingRPO Update

Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

National RPO Meeting, Dallas, TX

December 3, 2002

MANE-VU Modeling Workplan

Draft Modeling WorkplanDraft Modeling Workplan

Two Phase Approach:

• Phase I -- build capacity within MANE-VU and educate ourselves with respect to available analytical tools and techniques

• Phase II -- specifically focused tasks on providing high quality data products in support of SIP planning efforts

Technical Support


Phase IPhase I

“Practice modeling” designed to answer questions like:


Right Model for the Right Job: Right Model for the Right Job: REMSAD vs. CMAQ?REMSAD vs. CMAQ?

R2 forModel vs.Ambient

Sulfate Nitrate OC EC Soil PMcoarse bext

REMSAD 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX

CMAQ 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX 0.XX

Comparison of REMSAD and CMAQ to IMPROVE


How do the models perform? How do the models perform? Performance EvaluationPerformance Evaluation

• Statistical Measures

• Operational Evaluation

• Diagnostic Evaluation

• Mechanistic Evaluation

• Probabilistic Evaluation

All are important for a comprehensive evaluation of a model’s performance


What Domain?What Domain?National(based on RPO projection: D01 = 108km; D02 = 36km)


What Domain?What Domain?

Western Domain Eastern Domain


What Model Resolution?What Model Resolution?

• Annual versus episodic (tradeoff with computation time) Simulated Year?

• How many vertical layers and where?

• Nesting: where? Implications for met. and emissions?

• Limits of physical parameterizations

• Avoid mismatch between met. and air quality model resolutions!!


Met. and Emissions?Met. and Emissions?

• MM5, RAMS?

• SMOKE, EMS95, EMS2000?

• Performance evaluation of both


Accuracy and Precision?Accuracy and Precision?

“ Performance criteria for peak, bias and error statistics should be developed by a group of competent atmospheric scientists and policy analysts.”

-AER performance evaluation guidance


Accuracy and Precision?Accuracy and Precision?

1 part per trillion (ppt) for ozone and 1 ng/m3 for particles have been suggested as appropriate values of threshold precision to explore. – These values were suggested as appropriate at

the LADCO/TNRCC Linux Computing Workshop, Austin, Texas, March 25-27, 2002.


Technical Memorandum #5:Technical Memorandum #5:REMSAD Platform Intercomparison Experiments REMSAD Platform Intercomparison Experiments

• SAI provides REMSAD V6.3 input and output (24-hour simulation) on its native platform (DEC Alpha Workstation)

• Ported code to NYDEC Sun Workstation, NESCAUM Linux PC, NESCAUM Windows PC

• Compared output for Linux-DEC, Sun-DEC, and Linux-Sun.


Linux - DECLinux - DECLinux - DECSpecies REMSAD

I.D. Absolute Range (ng/m3) 3 (ng/m3) # of cells exceeding thresholdvalue*

Sulfate Formed in the Aqueous Phase ASO4 -1.16 to 4.40 0.19 5

Sulfate Formed in the Gaseous Phase GSO4 -1.57 to 0.07 0.09 3

Particulate Nitrate PNO3 -0.86 to 0.66 0.07 0

Coarse Particles PMCOARS -149.64 to 1.01 5.59 318

Secondary Organic Aerosols SOA -7.83 to 0.13 0.28 6

Primary Organic Aerosols POA -10.19 to 1.42 0.67 46

Primary Fine Particles PMFINE -21.70 to 1.55 1.03 64

Ammonium associated with Sulfate NH4S -1.05 to 0.92 0.10 1

Ammonium associated with Nitrate NH4N -0.25 to 0.19 0.02 0

Nitrogen Oxide NO -1.09 to 2.52 0.10 1

Nitrogen Dioxide NO2 -6.36 to 6.56 0.56 11

Carbon Monoxide CO -8770.36 to 6016.64 1040.05 121

Ozone O3 -2222.11 to 332.48 76.94 134


SUN - DECSUN - DECSUN - DECSpecies REMSAD














Ozone O3 -2494.33 to 2153.91 140.08 136


Linux - SUNLinux - SUNLinux - SUNSpecies REMSAD














Ozone O3 -1919.82 to 2545.04 146.77 185


Relative Differences (%)Relative Differences (%)Linux - SUN Linux – DEC Alpha SUN - DEC AlphaSpecies REMSAD

I.D. Relative % Difference Relative % Difference Relative % Difference

Sulfate Formed in the Aqueous Phase ASO4 -1.2 to 1.5% -1.0 to 1.5% -0.3 to 1.4%

Sulfate Formed in the Gaseous Phase GSO4 -0.5 to 0.5% -0.6 to 0.5% -0.6 to 0.3%

Particulate Nitrate PNO3 -8.3 to 3.8% -8.3 to 3.7% -5.1 to 1.9%

Coarse Particles PMCOARS -0.1 to 0.2% -1.1 to 0.2% -1.1 to 0.04%

Secondary Organic Aerosols SOA -0.1 to 0.5% -0.4 to 0.5% -0.4 to 0.02%

Primary Organic Aerosols POA -1.9 to 6.6% -1.9 to 6.6% -0.4 to 0.03%

Primary Fine Particles PMFINE -1.9 to 5.8% -1.9 to 5.8% -0.7 to 1.3%

Ammonium associated with Sulfate NH4S -3.7 to 2.9% -3.7 to 2.9% -3.7 to 2.9%

Ammonium associated with Nitrate NH4N -8 to 4% -8 to 4% -5 to 2%

Nitrogen Oxide NO -20.3 to 29.1% -18.6 to 33.9% -3.6 to 10.9

Nitrogen Dioxide NO2 -8 to 8% -8 to 10% -1 to 2%

Carbon Monoxide CO -7 to 7% -7 to 6% -7 to 5%

Ozone O3 -2.2 to 2.8% -2.6 to 0.4% -2.7 to 2.5%


What is the optimal What is the optimal precision metric?precision metric?

• Absolute thresholds seem to unnecessarily penalize species with high mass concentration

• Normalized thresholds (e.g. 10-4 times the standard 0.65ng/m3 for PM2.5)

• How do we deal with outliers? Does every grid cell need to meet the threshold?


Phase IIPhase II

Encompassed in detailed tasks outlined in MANE-VU Technical Support Workplan


Elements of Technical Elements of Technical WorkplanWorkplan

• Emissions

• Meteorology

• Modeling

• Monitoring and Data Analysis

• Documentation

• Technical Training, Outreach, and Management

regional haze modeling rpo update gary kleiman, nescaum national rpo meeting, dallas, tx december 3,...

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